Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad

The State of Food Security in Pakistan: Future Challenges and Coping Strategies
Author(s): Munir Ahmad and Umar Farooq
Source: The Pakistan Development Review, Vol. 49, No. 4, Papers and Proceedings PARTS I and
II The 26th Annual General Meeting and Conference of the Pakistan Society of Development
Economists Islamabad, December 28 - 30, 2010 (Winter 2010), pp. 903-923
Published by: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad
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©The Pakistan Review
Development
49:4Part
II(Winter
2010)pp.903-923

The State of Food Security in Pakistan:

Future Challenges and Coping Strategies

Munir AhmadandUmar Farooq

1. INTRODUCTION
Pakistanis a low incomedevelopingcountry.Agriculture is the mostimportant
sectorofthecountry meetingfoodandfiberrequirements ofthefastgrowingpopulation.
Althoughthe rateof populationincreasehas considerablyslowed down fromover 3
percentin 1980s to 2.09 percentin 2009-10,it is stillconsideredhigh.1Withthecurrent
rateof populationgrowth, thepopulationis expectedto getdoubledby 2050- making
Pakistan4thlargestnationby 2050 fromcurrent statusof 6thmostpopulousstateof the
world[Pakistan(2010)].
The totalcultivatedareahas increased byjust40 percent duringpast60 years,while
therehasbeenmorethan4 timesincreaseinpopulation withurbanexpansion ofoverseven-
fold- resultingintomega-cities2as well as risingpopulation pressure on land.
cultivated
Wheatproduction, a majorfoodcrop, hasincreased five-fold during the same -
period yetthe
country is marginalimporter of wheat.Tremendous efforts are neededbothadvancesin
technology andpopulationcontroltonarrow thefoodsupply-demand gap.
Reducingpoverty, hunger and food insecurity are essentialpartof MDGs3 and are
pre-requisitesforeconomic development. Food security and economic growthmutually
interactand reinforceeach otherin thedevelopment process[Timmer(2004)]. A country
unableto producetheneededfoodand has no resourcesor affordto buyfoodfromthe
internationalmarketto meetdemand-supply gap, is notfood sovereignstate[Pinstrup-
Andersen(2009)]. Food securityis thus fundamental to nationalsecurity,which is
generally ignored[Fullbrook(2010)]. The extra-ordinary risein foodpricesin laterpart
of thefirstdecade of 21stcentury raisedan alarm bell on foodsecurity, for
particularly

Munir Ahmad <camunir@yahoo.com> is Chiefof Research, Pakistan of Development

Institute
Economics, Islamabad. UmarFarooq<umar2parc@yahoo.com> is ChiefScientific Officer,Pakistan
Research
Agricultural Council,Islamabad.
'Atthetime ofindependence,Pakistan's wasonly32.5million.
population Itis around 170million
Pakistan
presently. isstillcountedamongthehigh countries
fertility having a large ofyoung
proportion adults
Themedian
andchildren. ageofpopulation from
hasincreased about 18years in1998to22years in2008.
Pakistan
2Currently, ismost nation
urbanised inSouthAsiawhere 36percent ofcountry is
population
incities.
living inPakistan
Therateofurbanisation during2005-2010 was3 percentperannum. In2005,more
thanhalf urban
ofthetotal inurban
wasliving
population areasof8 bigcities,i.e.Karachi,
Lahore,Faisalabad,
Rawalpindi,Multan, Hyderabad, andPeshawar.
Gujranwala It is expected thatby2030,therural-urban
ratio
population shallbe50:50[Pakistan
(2010)].
3MDG-1 callsforhalving andpoverty
hunger by2015inrelation to1990.

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904 Ahmad
andFarooq

thedevelopingworld.Pakistanis no exception.To achievefood-secureand pro-poor

agriculturalgrowth,Pakistan needs to adopt a comprehensiveapproach towards
increasingproductivity of all foodsrather
thanmerelyconcentrating uponachievingjust
wheat-based food security. Moreover,forbenefitingfromadoptionof new agricultural
technologies, the farmhouseholdsshould be able to financeexpensiveinputsand
diversifytheirlivelihoodsthroughoptimumfarmand non-farm sectors'employment
mix.
Managingfood securityin Pakistanalso requiresan understanding about its
dimensions;futurechallengesof agricultural growthand food security;and impactof
agriculturalpolicieson foodsupplyand income,thepoor vulnerablein ruraland urban
areas; and whatare do-ableoptions.Thus,themainfocusof thispaperis to tracethe
pathways to achievefoodandnutritional fora growing
security populationinPakistan.
This paper is organisedinto seven sections.Section2 discussesfood security
concept.Section 3 analyses food securitysituationin Pakistanin termsof food
trends,
availability itsfactorsandnatureoffoodsecurity in thefuture.
Section4 critically
evaluatesPakistan'sfoodandotherpolicies.Futurechallengesarediscussedin Section5.
The waysforward aredescribedinSection6. Section7 concludesthepaper.

2. WHAT IS FOOD SECURITY?

Food securityis thepeople's rightto definetheirownpoliciesand strategies for
the sustainableproduction,distributionand consumption offood thatguaranteesthe
rightto food for the entirepopulation , on the basis of small and medium-sized
production,respectingtheirown culturesand the diversityof peasant,fishingand
indigenous formsofagriculturalproduction, marketing and management of ruralareas,
inwhichwomenplaya fundamental role.4
The historyof food securitydatesback to theUniversalDeclarationof Human
Rightsin 1948 in whichtherightto foodwas recognisedas a coreelementof standard of
livingand also to the world food crisis of 1972-1974. The food securityconcept
continued developingovertimeand approximately 200 definitionsand450 indicators are
nowavailablein theliterature.5
The term"foodsecurity" referstheaccess to adequateamountof foodformeeting
dietaryenergy needsthatimpliesformanyas self-sufficiency as producing requiredfood
domestically Andersen(2009)]. A country
[Pinstrup- is self-sufficient
in foodwhenitcan
managethebalancebetweensupplyand demandby producing domestically- no matter
whattheequilibrium pricewouldbe thatcould be beyondthereachof majority of the
population ina developingeconomy.
The focusof nationaland globalfoodsecurity is generallyon thesupplyside of
thefoodequation - whethersufficient
foodis available[Pinstrup-Andersen(2009)].6 The
availabilityof food however cannotassure its access to the people. To ensurefood
securityat thehouseholdor individuallevel,theaccess partneedsto be addressed.This
4Final
Declaration
ofWorld Forum onFoodSovereignty,
2001.
5MaxwellandFrankenberger (1992)listed
25 broadly
definedindicators.
RielyandMoock(1995)
listed
73indicators,
somewhat more than
disaggregated those
mentionedinMaxwell
andFrankenberger
(1992).
Chung,etal. (1997)notethatevena simple indicator
suchas a dependency
ratio
canbe usedwith
many
different
permutations.
They listsome450indicators
[Hoddinott
(1999)1.
6The
term foodismeant asdietary
energy.

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 inPakistan
FoodSecurity 905

led theWorldFood Summitin 1996 to redefine thetermas 'foodsecurity existswhenall

people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient safe and nutritious
food to meet their dietary needs and foodpreferences for healthy activelife'.This
a and
definitionencompasses five fundamentalaspects: availability,access, stability,
nutritional statusand preferences of food. All of thesecomponentsare influencedby
physical, economic, politicaland other conditionswithincommunities and even within
households,and are oftendestabilisedby shockssuchas naturaldisastersand conflicts
[UK Parliament (2006)].
The availabilityand access are two important dimensionsof food security.The
availabilityrefersto sufficient quantitiesof quality/nutritious food available to every
individualsin the country.However,even withsufficient availabilityof food at the
country level,foodavailability is a seriousconcernin areashavingarmedconflicts, non-
availability of arable lands, and existence of prolongeddroughts - this is true for many
areasinPakistan.The distribution offoodstuff in theseareasis also faulty.
The access refersto the capacityto produce,buy and/oracquire appropriate
nutritious food by thehouseholdsand theindividuals[Timmer(2000)]. Havingaccess
requires sufficient
that foodis consistently availablein themarket. But,theavailability of
sufficient foodat country/local level does notguaranteethatall people are foodsecure,
since low incomes,lack of roads and infrastructure could deny access to desired
quantities ofqualityfood[UK Parliament (2006)]. Therefore, bothavailability andaccess
parts of food are
security inseparably inter-linked [Pinstrup- Andersen (2009)].
The access entailsbothphysicalaccess andeconomicaccess- theformer refersto
a place wherefoodis availableand thelatterdenotes'entitlement' to food[Sen (1982)].
The former requiresefficient marketinfrastructure to have access of people at low cost.
The entitlement can be ensuredeitherby own production or havingfoodbuyingcapacity
or havingaccess/right to othersourcesof gettingdesiredfood [Staaz, et al. (2009)].
Therefore, thereis directrelationship betweenpovertyand foodinsecurity sincethevery
poor cannot take precautionary measures against food insecurity and thus, they wouldbe
themostvulnerable[Cullet(2003); Herrmann (2006)].
Stability refersto consistent supplyof nutritious foodat thenationallevel as well
as stabilityin access to food at the householdand individualslevels. It is therefore
directly affected by theperformance of theagriculture sector.Onlya smallproportion of
consumers in developingcountries can afford to storefoodforthewholeyear.Therefore,
besidesproduction, stabilityrequiresbettermanagement of domesticproduction, food
markets integration, andrationaluse ofbuffer stocksandtrade[FAO (2002)].
Fluctuations/shortages in food grainsproductionhave been very common in
Pakistan.At times,thegovernment has to importsignificant quantitiesof food itemsto
meet the shortages.In orderto meet the shortagesin deficit/urban areas and save
consumers fromhighfoodprices,thegovernment has beenactivelypursuing thepolicies
of support/procurement prices,storage and distribution though at a very high cost.
Therefore, market infrastructure has a muchmoreroleto play.
'
The definition of food securityalso alludesto 4safe and nutritious food thatis
requiredforan activeandhealthylife.For an activeandhealthylife,thehumanbodyhas
to effectively utilisetheavailablenutrients in thefoodconsumed[Staaz, et al. (2009)].
Biological food absorptionis affectedby food preparation and healthconditionof an
-
individual influencedby sanitation,clean drinkingwater,and knowledgeof the

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906 andFarooq
Ahmad

householdsregarding properfoodstorage,processingand basic nutrition.7 furthermore,

thepreferences forfood add anotherdimensionto foodsecurity thatrelateto thesocial
and religiousnorms.People with equal access to food but havingdifferent food
preferences based on religion,societynorms, taste etc could demonstrate totallya
differentnatureof food security. The foodsare to be sociallyand culturally acceptable
andconsistent withreligiousandethicalvalues[Pinstrup- Andersen(2009)].
The above discussionwrappedaroundvariousdimensionsof food security -
availability,accessibility,stability,nutritionalstatusand preferences, in generaland in
Pakistanin particular, highlightsthe fact thatachieving food is
security difficult, complex
andchallenging phenomenon. In viewoftherecentsurgesin foodpricesandpolicyshifts
in responseby variouscountriesin panicfurther sparkedoffuncertainty thatevenled to
thedevelopednationsto thinkof "whether theirown foodsecurity is in peril"[Fullbrook
(2010), p. 5]. Moreover,thecountries lackingfoodproduction potential andcouldafford
to importtheirfood needs startedlookingforchunkof agricultural lands across the
bordersto ensureuninterrupted food supply - overlookinga fundamental realitythat
whenthelocals of thehostcountry are shortof foodwho wouldguardthesupplyoffto
them?The considerations of theworldare mainlyconfinedto assuringsteadysupplyof
affordable nutritious food,butare missingthefundamental issue of 'security'- foodis
basicallyenergy for humans without which "we are all dead" and thus should be viewed
as a "security good" [Fullbrook(2010), p. 6].

3. FOOD SECURITY SITUATION IN PAKISTAN

3.1. Trendsin Food Production,Availabilityand Food Security

Agricultural productionis thefoundation of foodavailability, especiallyforcalories
andproteins. Adequatefoodsupplyat affordable pricesis thecornerstone of foodsecurity
policyofall nations oftheworldincluding Pakistan.Pakistan hasmadesignificant progress in
termsof increasing food supplies.Per capitaavailability of cerealsincreasedfrom120
kilograms in 1961to 137kilograms 1990-91andfurther increased to 154kilograms in2008-9
[Ahmad, et al. (2010) and Table of
1]; which,morethan80 percent is accounted forbywheat
alone.The government of Pakistanhas triedto maintain percapitadailyavailability at the
levelof2400caloriessinceearly1990s- thatincreased from1754caloriesin 1961(Table2).
However,thisdailyaveragecaloriesavailability is substantiallylowerthantheaverageof
otherdeveloping and developedcountries 10
by percent and 26 percent,respectively.The
changes overtime in thecomposition of foodintake show a shrinking shareof wheat in total
caloriesavailability and a risingshareof animalsandothersources(Table2). The shareof
wheatdeclinedfrom 48 percentin 1990to38 percent in2006,whiletheshareofothercereals
declinedmoreprominently from20 percentin 1970 to 6 percentin 2006. The shareof
livestockproducts incalorieintakeincreasedfrom12 percent in 1970to 18 percent in2002,
whichmarginally declinedto 15 percentin 2006. The shareof otheritems - vegetable oil,
vegetable, fruitand sweeteners, has substantiallyincreasedfrom20 percent in 1970 to 37
percentin2006.

7For inHyderabad,
example, contaminated
watertook10livesand1000people
were over
hospitalised
thecourse
oftwomonthsin2004.Khan,
etal. (2002)reported
that51percentofthevegetable
producewas
unsuitable
forhuman duetoexcess
consumption chemicalresidues.

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 FoodSecurity
inPakistan 907

Table 1

ofFood In Pakistan
Per CapitaAvailability
PerCapita
Annual
Availability
(kg/person/annum) PerCapita
Food E.Oil/ Meat Milk FruitsVegetableTotal DailyAvail.
Years Grains Ghee (Grams)
1990-91 137.44 9.99 13.90 60.93 47.73 23.49 293.48 804.06
1991-92 144.18 13.07 14.38 62.26 48.30 27.70 309.90 849.03
1992-93 149.93 12.50 15.48 63.09 49.06 24.45 314.51 861.68
1993-94 158.80 10.50 16.07 64.60 53.65 27.20 330.82 906.35
1994-95 138.20 12.19 16.51 66.07 55.63 28.84 317.45 869.72
1995-96 148.55 11.42 17.25 67.16 56.23 27.03 327.64 897.64
1996-97 153.95 10.46 17.87 68.58 55.34 29.98 336.19 921.06
1997-98 161.07 11.59 14.00 81.45 56.48 31.11 355.70 974.53
1998-99 167.25 12.38 14.13 81.72 56.07 29.04 360.59 987.93
1999-00 158.83 11.08 14.19 82.15 52.23 24.55 343.03 939.80
2000-01 136.51 11.48 14.42 82.92 51.31 28.65 325.29 891.20
2001-02 135.53 10.67 14.50 83.45 51.29 25.35 320.78 878.85
2002-03 142.38 10.77 14.65 84.28 50.36 26.65 329.09 901.61
2003-04 143.83 11.16 14.74 84.42 47.82 28.23 330.20 904.66
2004-05 142.58 12.35 15.19 85.50 52.64 26.17 334.42 916.23
2005-06 140.98 12.75 16.33 90.30 51.25 31.18 342.79 939.14
2006-07 144.79 12.81 16.70 94.54 50.04 29.79 348.67 955.26
2007-08 155.04 13.29 17.00 93.93 53.71 31.23 364.20 997.79
2008-09 153.99 13.45 17.50 94.81 52.88 24.06 356.69 977.22
Source: etal.(2009).
Farooq,

Table 2
Per CapitaAvailability ofCaloriesand Sharesof VariousSources
Total Wheat Other Grains Pulses Animal Others
Year Calories % Calories % Calories % Calories % Calories % Calories %
1961 1754 ÍÕÕ 742 42 342 Ï9 ¡Ï4 6 260 15 2% ¡7~~
1970 2203 100 984 45 438 20 77 3 257 12 447 20
1980 2124 100 967 46 304 14 49 2 261 12 543 26
1990 2410 100 1153 48 274 11 58 2 309 13 616 26
1995 2345 100 1048 45 212 9 59 3 353 15 673 29
2000 2447 100 1000 41 244 10 68 3 436 18 699 29
2001 2426 100 1000 41 256 11 58 2 436 18 676 28
2002 2419 100 999 41 275 11 59 2 437 18 649 27
2003 2320 100 945 41 108 5 61 3 322 14 886 37
2004 2231 100 897 40 107 5 62 3 321 14 844 38
2005 2271 100 914 40 108 5 63 3 325 14 861 38
2006 2423 100 930 38 110 6 65 3 330 15 888 37
Source:
Ahmad,etal.(2010)(Table5.7updated).

Domesticproduction, net tradeand food aid are the mainconstituents of food

availabilityat the nationallevel. Despite morethanЗУгtimesincreasein cereals and
pulses productionsince early the 1960s, Pakistan has been importingsignificant
quantitiesof wheat,pulsesand edibleoil to meetdomesticneeds.The shareof imports in
wheatconsumption duringthe 1961-2006 has variedfrom26 percentin 1961 to less than
1 percentin 2004 (Table 3). The hugefood deficitduringearly1960s largelyreduced
during1970s as a resultof GreenRevolutiontechnologies. The dependenceon wheat
importshowever,re-emergedlater because of stagnationin wheat productivity. In
Pakistanhas beensuccessfully
contrast, producing enoughricefordomesticconsumption
andevenitssignificant quantitiesare also exported[Ahmad,etal. (2010)].

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908 Ahmad
andFarooq

Table 3
in '000' tones)
forWheat(Quantity
Food Balance-Sheet
Seedand
Feed,
Stock @ 10%
others
Year ImportsChange Exports Total ofProduction
Production Availability Share
Import
7%1 3814 1080 ^308 Õ 4586 385 4205 25Í69
1970 7294 229 336 108 7751 729 7022 3.26
1980 10856 604 -1217 3 10240 1086 9154 6.60

1990 14316 2047 -691 2 15670 1432 14238 14.38

1995 17002 2500 -1399 0 18103 1700 16403 15.24
1996 16907 2500 -2539 0 16868 1691 15177 16.47
1997 16650 4088 -3487 0 17251 1665 15586 26.23
1998 18694 2023 -2181 0 18536 1869 16667 12.14
1999 17856 2006 -2061 0 17801 1786 16015 12.53

2000 21079 80 3045 80 24124 2108 22016 0.36

2007 23295 1820 -936 530 23649 2330 21320 8.54
2008 20959 3188 -1867 142 22138 2096 20042 15.91
2009 24033 0 5000 0 29033 2403 26630 0.00
Source: etal.(2010)(Table5.8updated).
Ahmad,

One of theimportant indicatorsof economicaccess to food is theproportion of

people below the line
poverty [FAO (1998)]. The historical
evidences show that:poverty
increasedduringthe 1960s despiterapid economicgrowth;it declinedduring1970
through1987-88in spiteof the growthbeingrelativelyslower;the decliningpoverty
trendsgotreversedin 1990s albeitwithreasonablerateof economicgrowth;and during
2000s poverty continuedto risein thefaceof uncertain economicgrowth. Nevertheless,
thedailyaverageavailability of caloriesperpersonprogressively increasedoverthelast
fivedecade- eventhoughthisavailability has notbeenconsistently reflectedindeclining
poverty.
Despite significantimprovement in aggregatefood supply,malnutrition is a
widespreadphenomenon in Pakistan[Ahmad,et al. (2010)]. Rather,it has been argued
thatpercapitafoodintakein thecountry has beenhigherthantherecommended average
at thenationallevel [Khan(2003)]. Nevertheless, one thirdof all pregnantwomenwere
malnourished and over25 percentbabies had low birthweightin 2001-2. Malnutrition
was a majorproblemresponsibleformorethan30 percentof all infantand childdeaths
in thecountryin 2001-02. The incidenceof moderateto severeunderweight, stunting,
and wastingamongchildrenof less than5 yearsof age was about38 percent, 37 percent
and 13 percent,respectively in 2001-02 [PlanningCommissionand UNICEF (2004)].
Malnourishment among mothers as reflected
inbodymassindexwas 21 percentin 2001-
02 [Khan(2003)]. The overallundernourishment reported by FAO (2008) was about24
percent in 2004, whichis notonlyworstin SouthAsia afterBangladeshbutthishas been
observedto be increasingover time.Micronutrient deficiency is pervasivein Pakistan,
whichis regardedas 4hiddenhunger'reflecting a combination ofdietary deficiency,poor
maternal healthand nutrition, highburdenof morbidity and low micronutrient contentof
thesoil especiallyforiodineand zinc [Pakistan(2010)]. The deficiency in mostof these
micronutrients affectstheimmunity, growth and mental development and mayunderlie

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 inPakistan
FoodSecurity 909

thehighburdenof morbidity and mortality amongwomenandchildrenin Pakistan.This

indicatesthatdespitehavingsufficient foodavailableat thenationallevel,a largechunk
ofourpopulationmostlythechildrenand thewomenlackaccess to nutritiously balanced
food.
The foregoing discussionhighlights thefactthatenhancedfoodsecurity on itsown
cannotguaranteegood nutrition statusat thehouseholdlevel [Fullbrook(2010)]. Thus,
greaternationallevel food availabilityin Pakistanhas not been translated intoactual
food
increasein calorie-rich intake at the regionalor householdlevel reflectingreduced
access to nutritiousfood. This could be due to worseningincomeand landholdings
inequalityin thecountry.A risingcalorie-basedpovertyimpliesthatmostpeople had
decliningaccess to nutritiousfood. In addition,disparitiesin access to educationand
healthmayalso be crucial.Therefore, simplyemphasising on increasingfood supplies
cannotensurefoodsecurity. In such circumstances stable foodsupplyand its
nutritious
is consideredto be criticalissue[Pinstrup-
distribution Andersen(2009)].

3.2. NatureofFutureFood Insecurity

In view of continuously risingpopulation,thefooddemandin thecountryshall
naturally increase.However,it is worthmentioning thatfuturefood demandwouldbe
differentfromtoday'sbecauseofthefactorslike:(a) increasedproportion ofolderpeople
due to age longevity; (b) greater urbanisation and emergence of big cities;(c) changesin
familycomposition and structure; (d) changesin foodconsumption patterns and habits;
(e) prevalence of diseases like Cardiac, Diabetic and Hepatitis havingspecial food
etc.
requirements; of
and (f) rapidpenetration Super Markets and international Food Chains
in developingcountries.To targetsuch diversionsin food consumption future,the in
majorfocusshouldbe to incentivise theagricultural production to futureneeds.Thus,
production system needs to be channelised towards higherproduction of fruit, vegetable
andotherhighvaluecommodities.
In Pakistan,about68 percentof populationearnstheirlivelihoodfromagriculture
sectorto a varyingextent.Livestockand cropssub-sectors contribute up to 28 percent
and 24 percenttowardsruralhouseholdsoverallincome,respectively. The non-farm
enterprises, wages and services, remittances and other sources contribute 20 percent,18
7
percent, percent, and 3 percent, respectively.In ruralPakistan the economic access to
foodis mainlyinfluenced by household level differencesin land holding, education and
employment. Decreasingsize of land holdingsbesides inability of the economyto
generate newemployment limitsproductivity growth andriseinfarmincomes.
Eeven thoughthefoodis predominantly producedin ruralareasof Pakistan,yeta
majority of thepoor have lowereconomicaccess to food as comparedto urbanareas
[World Bank (2008); Staatz,et al. (2009)]. Relianceon markets to obtainfoodformost
of the food insecurepeople both in urban and rural areas is a commonfeature.The
dependenceof the urbanpoor on food marketsis very well-known and documented,
whiletherelianceof mostof theruralfoodinsecureamonglandless,marginaland small
sized farmers'classes is rarelyacknowledged[Staatz,et al. (2009)]. In additionto
landlessruralinhabitant (45 percent)morethan30 percentof the cultivatorsare net
buyers of food -
staples accounting62 percentof the ruralpopulationwho are either
partiallyor totallydependent on market forfoodneeds[Ahmad(2010)].

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910 andFarooq
Ahmad

Unfortunately, the government efforts in providingreliefto consumersand the

subsidyinvolved in food are
staples rarely meant fortheseruralhouseholds. Furthermore,
theaccess to factorsaffecting thebiologicalfoodabsorption includingsanitation,clean
drinking and
water, knowledgeregarding proper foodstorage,processing,basic nutrition,
and healthfacilities,infrastructure
etc. is verypoor in ruralareas. The access to these
indicatorsin food insecurerural areas is even overwhelming shocking.Therefore,
improving market infrastructure,
arrangingsafety net programs,provisionof better
educationand healthfacilitiescould be thecentralelementsof any strategy to reduce
chronicfoodinsecurity in bothruralandurbanareasinfuture.

4. FOOD SECURITY POLICIES AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS

It is generallybelieved thatthereare two major policyfailuresthatlead to
uncertainty in foodsecurity and increasein poverty in thedevelopingcountries including
Pakistan.These policy failuresincludehastywithdrawal of statefromthe agriculture
sectorunderthe structural adjustment programsand payingno attention to settingup
essentialinstitutionalinfrastructure to exploitfarm-nonfarm sectors'nexus.This chaotic
move resultedintoreducedinvestment in researchand development not only by the
nationalgovernments of thedevelopingcountriesbutinternational donoragenciesalso
withdrew theirsupport[Zezza, etal. (2007)]. As a resultofnonrealisation of intrinsically
interlinked sectorsand simultaneouspolicy moves- retreating fromsupportwithout
providing alternativepathways, agricultural productivity declinedand incidenceof rural
poverty increasedleadingto greater reduction in access to food.Thatperpetuated further
intopoverty-food insecurity helix. Pakistan never had any national food policyexcept
launching a fewfoodsecurity programs at theregionallevels[MittalandSethi(2009)].
Social protection coversboththesafetynetsand social security programs. World
Bank8in its recentpublicationhas classifiedthe totalspendingon social protection in
Pakistanin twobroadgroups:(i) safetynetswhichincludecash transfers, social welfare
services,humancapital accumulationand wheat subsidies;and (ii) social security
comprising publicsectorspendingon civilservicespensions,andprivatesectorsponsored
welfarefundandcostof employeessocialsecurity institutions.AsianDevelopment Bank9
decomposedthesocial protection spendingin Pakistanintothefollowingcategories:(i)
labourmarketprogrammes; (ii) social insuranceprogrammes; (iii) social assistanceand
welfareprogrammes; (iv) microandareabasedschemes(community based);and (v) child
protectionprogrammes. Detailed discussion regarding these programs is beyondthescope
ofthispaper.However,we wouldtouchuponbriefly thesafety netsinPakistan.
Pakistanhas a numberof safetynets programmesimplemented by various
Ministries.The maintwocashtransfer programmes are:(i) PakistanBait-ul-Mal10 working
"Social
Protection
inPakistan: Household
Managing RisksandVulnerability.
World October
Bank,
2007.
UpoftheSocialProtection
9Scaling IndexforCommitted PovertyReduction.
FinalReport.
Volume1.
Multi
Country Halcrow
Report, China Limited.
PreparedforAsianDevelooment Bank.
November2007
PakistanBait-ul-Mal
(PBM)disburses tothedestitute,
needy, widows, invalids
orphans, andinfirm
oftheir
irrespective gender,caste,greedorrace.PBMprovide assistance
underdifferent
programs and
suchas FoodSupport
schemes, Programme (FSP)carryingmajor sharefollowedbyIndividualFinancial
Assistance
(IFA),International
Rehabilitation
throughcivilsociety
wing,National
CenterforRehabilitation
of
Child
Labour (NCRCL),Vocational
TrainingInstitutes/Dastkari
Schools(VTIs)[Pakistan
(2010)].

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 inPakistan
FoodSecurity 911
12and Usher
undertheMinistry of Social Welfareand SpecialEducation;11 and (ii) Zakcit
schemesadministered by theMinistry of ReligiousAffairs13 [Pakistan(2010a, b]. Other
programmes includingschool feeding,safe motherhood and child nutrition, etc are
providingassistanceto about 2 million households.These programmesare being
implemented by theprovincialeducationand healthdepartments withtheassistanceof
WFP, WHO, UNICEF and UNESCO. Recently, Government has introduced Benazir
IncomeSupportProgramme (BISP) to caterthe needs of the"poorest of thepoor" sections
of thesociety.Underthisprogram, Rs 46 billionrupeesweredisbursedin 2009-10,while
Rs 50 billionis allocatedunderthisschemefortheyear2010-11 [Pakistan (2010b)].
The above mentioned cash transfer programmes followdifferent modalitiesfor
identificationof beneficiaries, targeting mechanism, coverage and outreach, due diligence
and monitoring mechanism. A numberof issuesworthnotingin theseprograms include:
(i) most programmes are fragmented, duplicativeand disjoint with no coordination
mechanism;(ii) theyare thinlyspread and have poor coverage,and oftenexclude
marginaland people in remoteareas; (iii) at present,the main criterionused for
identification of recipientsis povertywhichexcludetransitory povertyand vulnerable
shocksparticularly peoplehaving low human capital and access to productive assets;(iv)
absence of standardisedeligibilitycriteria (operationaldefinition) and lack of
transparency in identification ultimately leadingto inclusionof ineligibleand exclusion
ofneedyanddeserving one; (v) thepayments aresmallas theyrepresent 10 percentto 20
percent of the consumption need of the household; (vi) the disbursements are irregular
and lumpy;and (vii) theannualpayments are notadjustedforinflation or cost of living
[FAO (2008)].
On the supplyside, variousagricultural projectshave been undertaken by the
government of Pakistan resulting into a significantincrease in the productivity of food
crops. These programs include of
development irrigation, roads, market infrastructure,
and investment in agricultural researchand extension.The empiricalstudieshas shown
that investment in researchand developmenthas paid off in termsof increasing
agriculturalproductivity, raisingfamilyearning,nutrition whichin turnsupported risein
labourproductivity, and betterhealthand well beingof people. Keepingin view the
importance ofagriculture andensuring foodsecurity on sustainable basis,thegovernment
ofPakistanstarteda Special ProgramforFood Security(SPFS) withmajorsupportfrom
FAO. The SPFS projectwas pilotedinitiallyin threevillagesincludingtwo sites in
Punjaband one in KhyberPakhtunkhwa withtwinobjectives:(1) to ensuretheadequacy
andaccess to foodsupply;and (2) to maintain thestabilityin agriculturalproduction. The
major focus of this program was on enhancingagricultural productivity and profitability
of the majorfood crops- wheat,rice,maize and oilseeds,on a sustainablebasis. The

"inJuly-March incurred
Pakistan
period, Rs2.7billionto1.438million in2008-09,
beneficiaries Rs
to 1.11million
1.65billion in2009-10
beneficiaries yearandallocated
financial for2010-11
Rs 2 billion
(2010a,b)].
[Pakistan
12Zakat
provides suchas Guzaraallowance,
assistance
financial educational health
stipends, care,
Eidgrans
socialwelfare/rehabilitation, andmarriage assistance
through andother
regular Zakatprogrammes
levelschemes
andnational [Pakistan
(2010)].
l3In
July-March Pakistan
period, disbursed to0.538million
Rs1.421million beneficiaries 2008-
during
09,Rs0.404millionto0.538million in2009-10
beneficiaries financial Morethan
year. halfoftheZakatfund
isdisbursed
through Zakat
regular programmes [Pakistan
(2010a,b)].

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912 Ahmad
andFarooq

projectwas firstup scaled to 109 villages in May 2002 underthe name of Crop
Maximisation Program(CMP-I) and thenextendedto 1012 villagesall overPakistanin
2008 (called CMP-II), totallysponsoredby theGovernment of Pakistan.The resultsof
theSPFS wereencouragingat two sites in Punjab on thebasis of which109 villages
broughtunderthisnet in thenameof CMP-I. The performance of CMP-I was dismal
[Ahmad and Iqbal (2006)]. Despite that the CMP-II was initiatedin 1012 villagesin
Pakistanwitha targetto extendit to 13000 villages.The successof thisprogramis also
beingseriously questionedbythestakeholders andprofessionals.
The majorfocus of Pakistan'sfood securityhas remainedon supplyside that
mainlyrevolvedaroundmaintaining wheatself-sufficiencyonly. The productionand
marketing of other food crops is left on market forces. Government procuresand
maintains operationalas strategic reservesof wheatand resellsthrough flourmillsafter
coveringthe cost of storage,handling,and otherincidentals.The annual cost of
subsidisingwheatis massiveas the leakagesin procurement system,storageand the
millingsector have significanthidden costs.Giventhese leakages,thebenefits accruedto
intendedbeneficiariesdo not commensurate withthe subsidyinvolved.Otherfood
relatedsubsidieswere also providedfor addressingthe food securityof poor urban
sectionsof thesocietyincludefooditemssold through UtilityStoresCorporation (USC)
at subsidisedprices.Rs 36.9 billionswere spenton variousfood relatedsubsidiesin
2009-10, whileRs 27.044 billionsare allocatedforthe currentfiscal year [Pakistan
(2010c)].
Ahmad,et al. (2006) evaluatedvariousseasonalphasesof wheatmarketing over
theperiod1996-97to 1999-2000.Usingpartialequilibrium analysis14thestudyshowed
thattotalproducerwelfareloss was Rs 37.96 billionincluding policycostto government
amountedto Rs 11.05 billion.The overallfinancialloss was about Rs 3.37 billion,
reflectingmainlythedifference betweengainto themillers,and thesubsidyprovidedby
-
the governmenta gap apparentlyunaccountedfor in the system.The studyalso
highlightsthefactthattheconsumersare subsidisedat theexpenseof thefarmers, and
themillersabsorbalmostall thesubsidyprovidedbythegovernment to implement wheat
policy.
Ahmad,et al. (2010) concludedthatmarketing costs incurredby government-
owneddepartments are significantlyhigherthanthatof incurred by theprivatetraders.
Corruption is pervasivein commodity marketing,particularlyin thepublicsector.Rent-
seekingactivitiesincrease transactioncosts and uncertainty, discouragemarketing
investment and participation- ultimatelyleading to negativefiscal impact for the
government.
To supplementthe above conclusions,we analyse the currentgovernment
interventionin foodmarketing wheregovernment triedto achievewheatself-sufficiency
in 2008-09.The supportpriceforwheatwas raisedfromRs 650/40-kg to Rs 950/40-kg
besidesprovidingheavysubsidyon fertiliser. As a result,Pakistanhas been enjoying
self-sufficiencyin wheat for the last two years.The countryalso has a historyof

,4They
analysed - production,
quantities homeconsumption,
feed,seed,andwastage;
government
and
procurement open market andmarketed
sales;imports consumption; - government
prices issue
support,
wholesale
price, price,
import
parity
price,
government's
import
price; - government
andcosts costand
storage
private cost.
storage

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 FoodSecurity
inPakistan 913

carrying-over highwheatstocks:3.552 milliontonsin 2000-01; 3.683 milliontonsin

2001-02; and 4.223 milliontonsduring2009-10 whileprocuredanother6 milliontons
slotfrom2009-10 wheatcrop- resulting intoa stockof 10 milliontonswiththepublic
stores.Historically,
the government of Pakistanhas been releasingwheaton average
morethan5 milliontonsof annuallyfromits stocks.This indicatesthatthecarryover
stockfor2010-11 shallbe morethan5 milliontones.
Managingnearlyhalfof nationalwheatproduction procuredby thegovernment
heavilycosts to the nationalexchequer(aboutRs 30 Billionper annum).Government
borrowing formaintaining wheatreservesaccountsmorethanRs 414 billion- Punjab
andPASSCO are majorcredittakers.Whatmonetary damagehas been done due to this
poor food stocks managementpolicy is a question which an ordinarystudentof
development studiescan ask. A simplecomparison of thevalueof wheatlyingin public
sectorstoresand theamountof bankloans showsthatthecreditamountis muchhigher
thanthevalueof wheatstored,i.e.,totalvalueof wheatis equal to Rs 262.5 billionvis-à-
vis bankloan of Rs 414 billion.It meanstheprovincialand federalgovernments would
notbe able to pay theloan fromthestoredwheateven iftheyexportitseach and every
grain(Table 4).

Table 4

PolicyDecisionRegardingExportofWheatfromPakistan2010-11
Items Punjab Sindh
Wheatprocurement paidbythegovernment
price (Rs/40-kg) 950 950
Incidental
charges
(Rs/40-kg) 70 70
Annualwheatstorage
chargespaidbythegovernment
(Rs/40-kg) 250
(BasedonRs2 billion
permonth 10million
forstoring ofwheat)
tons
WheatcostatPASSCO/Provincial Stores
FoodDepartment's (Rs/40kg) 1270 1270
Exportparity atKarachi
price inf.o.b.
terms orRs/ton)
(Rs/40-kg 1070(26750) 1170(25500)

Governmentrelease forexport
price orRs/ton)
(Rs/40-kg
purposes 1000(25000) 1000(25000)
Losstothegovernment
atrelease
price orRs/ton)
(Rs/40-kg 270(6750) 270(6750)
Losstonational
exchequer
byallowing of1million
export ton(Rs) 6.75Billion 6.75Billion
LosstoPunjabgovernment
byallowing of
export3.5million
ton(Rs) 23.625
Billion
Applicable
Totalvalue
ofwheat ingovernment
lying atitsrelease
stores (Rs)
price 262.5Billion
Total
amount ofcredit
payable PASSCO
byprovinces, andTCP(Rs) 414Billion
Total
government 3.5million
byexporting
earning ton(Rs) 75Billion
Note: inparentheses
Figures areonpertonbasis.

The above discussionclearlyindicatesthefollowingmajorflawsin theexisting

wheat policies: (a) producershardlybenefitfromthese policies both in termsof
sustainableincreasein productionand bettermarketing (b) benefitsto
opportunities;
consumerswerealso partial,as themajorchunkof benefitgoes intothepocketsof the
flourmillers;(c) seriousdistortions in wheatand wheatflourprices throughundue
government interventions in terms of un-targetedsubsidies; (d) considerable
inefficienciesin managingwheatsurplusesas thequantitiesprocuredwerebeyondthe
storagecapacitiesavailable withthe government departments- hiringprivatestorage
facilitiesat a huge cost to the nation;(e) exchequerbeing additionallyburdenedby

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914 Ahmad
andFarooq

highlysubsidisedwheatflourto thepublicand schemeslike"cheapbread";(f)

providing
in flourmillingsector;and (g) targetpopulationis
generatedmassive inefficiency
not
generally effectivelybeing dealt theruralpoorlack access to
withand in particular
mostofthesafetynets.

5. FUTURE CHALLENGES
As discussedabove,bothsupply-and demand-side issuesof foodsecurity needto
be addressedto achievesustainablefood security. Pakistanhas enormouspotentialto
furtherdevelopitsagriculture sectoruponwhichabout2/3rdof populationis directly or
indirectly depends for theirlivelihood. However, Pakistan is
economy experiencing
structuraltransformations and theroleagriculture in economicdevelopment is changing
- its sharein nationalGDP is decliningfasterthanproportion
fast of labourseeking
livelihoodfromthis sector,and a verysmall proportion of farmsexperiencing fast
modernisation, whilemajority of thefarmers are resourcepoorandoperatein low-input,
low-output scenario.Therefore, Pakistanhas to adaptthree-prong strategy- developing
farmandnon-farm sectorsas wellas reducing polarisationwithinagriculture sectoreither
by helpingthe inefficient farmerto approachthe frontier or helpingthemto finding
alternativelivelihoodin thenon-farm sector.However,in thissectionwe shall mainly
discusstheproduction sidechallenges.
At current rateof populationgrowth, Pakistanneedsto increasesubstantial food
productionto feed a growingpopulationwith some modestsurplusesfor export.
Substantial increasein cropproductivity has to be targeted usinglesserland and water
resourcesthanare availableforagriculture today. One is not sureof achievingindividual
milestonesin the fastchangingdynamicworld,but one thingis to be believedthat
agriculturemustmaintain a growth rateof morethan5 percentin orderto ensurea rapid
growthof nationalincome,attaining macroeconomic stability,effectiveemployment of
growing labourforce,securingimprovement in distributive
justiceand a reduction in rural
poverty inPakistan.
"Food
securityis possible well into the future.Science providesthe tools,
agriculturalresearchthe modality,intellectualinsightthe design of the next
revolutions thatwillhelpsmallholder farmersimprovetheirsquareyardofearth,
and helptheworldto keeppace withpopulationgrowth" (Austin,undated).

5.1. Sourcesof Growthin Agriculture

Threemajorfactorsthatinfluence thesupplyside of foodinclude:(1) thehigher
use of conventional (2) increasein totalfactorproductivity
inputs;15 (TFP);16and (3) the
targeted in
transformations theinstitutional
setup thatassistthe sector.These
agriculture
sourcesof growthare interrelated and the contribution of one is dependenton the
effectivenessoftheother.
HigherUse ofInputsand FarmSize: Two majorinputsin agriculture are landand
water.The prospectsofallocatingmoreof thesevitalinputsarelimited. Rather,bothland

15This totheeconomies
pertains ofsizeandindicates
themovement
oftheproducer
alongthebest
practice frontier.
production
,6That
refers
toshifting
oftheproduction
frontier byR&Defforts.
upwards

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 FoodSecurity
inPakistan 915

and waterresourcesare facingdecliningtrendin supplycausedbylanddegradation17 and

fastexpansionof cities.The chances for bringingunused or marginallands under
cultivation
are also meagerbecausethequalityof suchlandsis poorand theinvestment
to increase productivity in these lands may be uneconomicaland unsustainable
[Fullbrook(2010)]. The intensiveuse of land (croppingintensity)is anothersourceof
increasingagricultural outputthattoo has reachedeven in thevicinityof 200 percentin
certainirrigated no chanceof goingbeyondthat.Similarly,the use of
areas indicating
and pesticidescannotbe increasedbeyondcertainlimitsbecauseof
inputslikefertilisers
nationalhealthand environmental concerns.Furthermore, due to increasingpricesof
energyand decliningwateravailability
fertiliser, thealreadydecliningrateof growthin
use ofchemicalshas turnedintonegativein recentyears.However,alternative sourcesof
nutrientsneed to be exploredand popularised.The use of biocidesis observedto be
decliningin a numberof countriesand a few of themare even returning to organic
farming.
The otherinputsincludefarmmachinery - tube-wells,tractorsand implements,
the supplyof whichonce increasedsignificantly is now facingthe decliningrate of
in
change growth. The available farm machinery moresuitedto largefarms,and thus
is
thefarmmachinery to exploreand improvisemechanisation
researchhas to be redirected
suited to small farmers(i.e. reversemechanisationfavouringsmall farmers).The
machinesrequiredfor harvestingand post-harvest handlingand small scale value
additionareyetto be developedandpopularised.
As regardsthefarmsize, Pakistanhas a highlyskeweddistribution of farmlands.18
Basicallytheownership of thismajor factorof production determines theaccess to input
and outputmarkets.Therefore, thebenefitsof agriculturaldevelopment are also shared
rathermoreunequally.The poor small farmersuse 30 percentto 50 percentless of
various factorsof productionthan the use at rich farmers - leading to lower land
productivity, greaterpovertyand food insecurity.All inputscombinedhave been
contributing towards agriculturaloutputgrowthrangingfrom25 percent-50percent
during1990s in Punjab[see Ahmad(2003); and Ali and Byerlee(2000)]. Thus in future,
thereare only limitedchancesof inputsintensification and increasingthe agricultural
-
output approaching upper bound throughthese resources.
Increase in Total Factor Productivity (TFP): TFP refersto shiftingof the
production frontierupwards case progress,and downwardsas a resultof regress.
in of
Researchand development(R&D) efforts, flow of information, betterinfrastructure,
of fundsand farmers'managerialcapabilitiesare theprimemoversof TFP.
availability
EmpiricalstudiesshowthattheTFP estimates differ widelyand rangefrom0.37 percent
to 2.3 percentdominating the shareof TFP in outputgrowth.The studieshave also
shown the signs of decliningTFP growthbecause of deteriorating land and water
resources[Ahmad(2003); Ali and Byerlee(2000)]. Thereis strongempiricalevidence

17Becauseofpoorresponse towards
inputs insuchlands,
applied uselower
thefarmers dosesofinputs
as comparedtonormal healthy Reduced
lands. useonsuchlands
ofinputs
levels varyfrom to80
12 percent
and
percent, as a from
result to affected lands
slight moderately patchy agricultural declined
output by more
than30percent [seeAhmad (2003)].
l8In
2000,about 58percent hadlessthan
farmer
oftotal only16percent
5 acreslandandoperating of
totalavailable areaIn contrast,
cultivated farms
only6 percent having morethan25 acresoflandwere
32percent
operating ofthetotalcultivated insome
area.Thesituation provinces more
israther serious.

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916 Ahmad
andFarooq

that high levels of researchand development(R&D) investmentslead to high

productivityand eventuallyto increasedeconomicperformance. A strongrelationship
betweenagriculturaloutputand on
outlays agricultural research and extensionexistsin
-
Pakistan about32 percentrateof returns on suchinvestment has beenobserved[Khan
andAkbari(1986)]. Another recentstudybyKiani,et al. (2008) foundthatinvestment in
research
agricultural resulted in attractivereturnsin Pakistan rangingfrom 49-78
- highestreturns
percent of 57-88 percentin Punjabprovincefollowedby thatin Sindh
(24-48 percent).While R&D activitiesare important, these must be supportedby
favourablepolicy instruments, humanresourcedevelopment, necessaryphysicaland
institutional
infrastructure
etc.
"No countryhas been able to sustaina rapid transition
out ofpovertywithout
sector" Timmer(2005).
in itsagriculture
raisingproductivity
TargetedTransformations and InstitutionalSetupAssisting theAgricultureSector:
The thirdmajorfactorcontributing towardsagricultural growthis the policytargeted
institutional
reformsincludingagriculturalextension,education and credit, and
improvement in thefunctioning
of inputand outputmarkets[Saris(2001)]. The existing
institutions
have furtherdeteriorated the disparitybetweenthe rich/large and the
poor/smallfarmers in rural
Pakistanbyoffering greateraccess to influential
and well-off
farmers.Moreover,the agricultural pricepolicies in Pakistanremainedanti-producers
and tendedto slow downthegrowth. UndertheStructural Adjustment and Stabilisation
Programmes (SAP) thegovernment of Pakistanremovedall theinputsubsidiesduring
the 1990s resultinginto manyfold increasein inputpricesand thusgreatercost of
- squeezingtheprofitability
production of thea sectorin generaland of poorfarmers in
While implementing
particular. the directivesfromIFIs the state's role was quickly
reduced/withdrawn without redirectingenhanced public sector focus on rural
development to neutralise
thepolicyeffectson agriculture.The negativeeffects became
morepronounced whentheprivatesectorinvestments laggedbehind as well.

5.2. Constraints
The majorhurdleto developtheagriculture sectorofPakistanin generaland food
grainsproduction in particular
is thelackof holisticpolicyapproach- intervening in one
or morecommoditiesleavingotherson the behestof marketforcesused to resultin
frequentsupplyanddemandimbalancesin othercommodities. Effortsin correctingthese
divergences turned oftenbad for the others.Such partialpolicydynamicsreducedthe
processof commercialisation and specialisationin agriculture
and also deceleratedthe
growth in agricultural
productivity, in foodgrains.The analysisof a recently
particularly
publishedstudyby Falkenmark, Rockström and Karlberg(2009) presentsa verybleak
picturefor Pakistan in termsof water shortageand potentialof increasingfood
production throughareaexpansionby2050. In termsofarea,verylow potential leftsince
most arable land is alreadyin use, while freshwater will be the most fundamental
constraintin foodproduction in comingdecades- Pakistanis shownin darkbrownin
1.
Figure The studyfurther concludesthatPakistanis amongthosecountriesthatare
"
approachingtheend oftheroad unlessincomegrowthin themeantime allows themto
importthefood required" (p. 65).

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 FoodSecurity
inPakistan 9[7

Fig. 1.

Figure 1 Countriescolour coded accordingto wateravailabilityforfood self-

sufficiency. Those with<1,300 m3/capita/year are in deficit.Details can be seen from
Rockström, etal. (2008) citiesinFalkenmark, etc.(2009).
Otherfactorsinfluencing thefood securityin Pakistanare theoutcomesof both
partialpoliciesand theneglectof R&D activitiesincluding:(a) fluctuating food grains
production - generallybelow thedomesticrequirements; (b) the slow pace of varietal
development in pulses,oilseedsand foddercropswithnon-existence of seed marketing
system for these cropgroups;(c) thealmost of
dependence vegetables sectoron imported
seed; (d) poor marketing infrastructure
unable to insure timelyavailabilityof quality
inputs;19 (e) low geneticpotentialof available varietiesand slow varietalreplacement
becauseof unaffordable highpricesof certifiedseed; (f) presenceof seriousgovernance
issuesin foodprocurement, marketingand distributionsystem;and,(g) inability of poor
farmers to respondto foodpricehikesdue to simultaneous risein inputpricesand having
no or verysmallmarketable surplusavailablewiththemon outputsideto financeto.20

6. WAY FORWARD
"A precautionaryapproachwouldputfoodfirstbecause ifit is notsecure,even
,
sovereign thenthesecurity foodfirst,willrequire
ofsocietyis putat risk.Putting
the reordering and
ofpriorities recognition of thefundamental value offood in
securinglife and supportingsociety.As food secures life and the missionof

l9Major areaofwheatnowfalls inrotationofvarious kharif

cropslikecotton,
rice, Aperiod
sugarcane.
of1-4weeks isavailable
tothefarmers betweenharvestingkharif andwheat
crops During
planting. this
period
farmer
isprettybusy indisposingoffpreviouscrops forprocuring
as wellas struggling forwheat
inputs while
market
intermediaries(commission donotclear
agents) accounts
their onprevious ordelay
crops thepayments
oftheir
saleproceeds.Shortagesintheavailability
ofinputs likeseedandphosphaticfertiliser
finally
converge
atusing
lowqualityandlevelsofthese vital
inputs.
20Most ofthefoodmarketable is generated
surplus bymedium andlarge farmers. 58
Thisis because
offarming
percent populationoperates<5 acresoflandandthey only18percent
arecultivating oftotal
cultivated
area.Thefarmers having 5 to12.5acresrepresent 28percentoffarming andoperate
population 30
oftotal
percent area.Inthisway,
cultivated farmers operating<12.5acresrepresent farmers
86percent andare
48percent
cultivating oftotal
cultivatedareainthecountry.

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918 Ahmad
andFarooq

nationalsecurityis to securesocietyand defenditsexistence , itfollowsthatfood

forms an intrinsicelement of national security but one that is generally
overlooked Puttingfood firstwill strengthen the securityin food security,
thereby contributingto thecomprehensive, sustainablesecurity and well-being
of
"
citizensand society [Fullbrook(2010), p. 7].
The majorhindrance in achievingfoodsecurity in developingcountries including
Pakistanis thehighlevelsof poverty, andthuspoverty reduction is a mostpowerful toolto
improve foodsecurity thatcan be achievedthrough equitableeconomicgrowth [Smith, etal.
(2000)].Smith, etal. (2000) further suggests variouswaystoachievepro-poor (1)
growth: by
enablingthepoortoparticipate inthegrowth processandincreasing theiraccessfinancialand
productiveresources and providing them physicaland market infrastructure;
(2) investingin
humancapitalof thepoor- provisionof healthand educationthatenablesthemto take
advantage ofnewopportunities; and,(3) investing inthesocialcapitalofthepoor- network,
norms,and trustamongmembers of communities thathelpcoordinate and cooperatefor
members' mutualbenefit inthecommunity [Moser(1996)]. In Pakistanmost ofthepoorlive
inruralareasandaredirectly and/or indirectlydependent on theperformance of agriculture
sector.
Besidesimproving foodsecurity ofurbanpopulation, foodsecurity ofruralhouseholds
canbe improved byincreasing agricultural productivity.
For increasingagriculturalproductivity, a numberof services and support
institutionsneed to be eitherstrengthened or to be createdincludingdevelopingIPRs
(IntellectualPropertyRights)for promoting R&D in privatesector.The goals and
of
priorities the research have to be reformed bothat thefederalandprovinciallevels.An
infrastructureof experiment stationsin variousecologicalzones in partnership withthe
progressive farmers (small,mediumand large,to evaluatetheadaptability/applicability
of theinnovations underlocal conditions)needto be developed.Also,thesame stations
shouldbe used as hub of trainingsof extensionpeople and farmers.The focus of
commodity researchneeds to be shiftedto systemperspectivesin orderto enhance
researchimpactsandincomeofthefarming community.
Researchpolicieshave to be focusedon croppingzones and theirdevelopment to
increasesystemsprofitability. No egalitarianapproachof one-size-fits-all shall apply.
Basic and applied researchincludingsocial sciences has to be focusedon cropping
systems/zones, since the zones are heterogeneousin socioeconomic,resource
endowments and agronomiccharacteristics and the issues/problems differsignificantly
fromeach other. Moreover,the focusof commodity researchneeds to be shiftedto
systemperspectives in orderto enhanceresearchimpactsand incomeof the farming
communities. In orderto effectively implement thisstrategy, we haveto reassesshuman
resourcerequirements, researchand extensioninfrastructure, and moreimportantly the
academiccurricula in theuniversities.
New programme interventions particularlyin remoteareasfortraining technicians
in agricultureand non-agriculture enterprisesalso need to be initiated.Trained
technicianscan bringrevolution in agriculture as well as in non-agriculturesectors.This
is expectedto increaseaccess to food and help reducefood insecurity. In additionto
humandevelopment, a well organisedfoodassistanceprogramin foodinsecureand low
agriculturalpotential areas wouldenormously helpreducepoverty andenhanceaccess to
food[Smith,etal. (2000)].

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 FoodSecurity
inPakistan 919

For all thisto happen,thefederaland provincialMinistries have to redefine their

boundaries sincetheseissuesare provincialsubject.The policy-makers needto thinkand
establishsystemperspectives linkingagriculture and non-agriculture sectors.Thisrequires
a close cooperationin policy, programformulation and implementation between
Agriculture and otherMinistries to fosterrural
and agriculture development generaland
in
foodsectorin particular. For example,forproperprogramme planning, formulation and
implementation the Ministries of local
agriculture, government, water and power, labour
andmanpower, commerce andindustry, andtheenvironment cannotworkin isolation.
All nationalpolicy initiativesmustbe scrutinised fortheirimpactson private
sectorinvestment as well as on ruralwellbeingincludingfarmand non-farm sectors.21
Realising the farm-nonfarm nexus, appropriate institutionalsetup for coordination has to
be set in place. Further,the financialinstitutions providingagricultural credit and
microfinance need to be geared in favourof resourcepoor farmersand landless
dominatingnot only the agricultural productionsystembut also most of themare
extremely poorandfoodinsecure.
Socio-economicresearchcould play a vitalrole in puttingresearchon trackfor
delivering specificoutputsthatare expectedfromtheagricultural researchsystem.For
thispurposesocial sciencesmaybe strengthened to assess researchoutputsin termsof
sustainability, relevance/ equity,quality,comparative advantage,competitiveness, value
additionpotentials, resourceconservation and profitability.Agricultural research system
is stilldeficient in quicklyaligningitselfto thechangingmarket situations and achieving
sustainablehigherqualityproductionlevels- particularly food commodities. Research
planninglacksfocuseson prioritising research,strategicplanning, implementing demand
drivenresearch,independent assessmentof researchoutcomes,plannedpromotionof
viableresearchoutcomesand developingpublic-private partnerships to promote/upscale
technologies. Following are the research
priority areas to be focused on:
• developingtechnologiesbothin termsof geneticmodifications of crops that
improve water and
productivity bringbreakthroughs in theuse of salinewater;
• improvingsystems'productivity by devising new practices for better soil
fertilitymanagement,soil and water conservation, water harvesting, and
integratedpestmanagement, etc;
• croppingsystembased researchto adjustto theclimatechangeprocessesand
combating naturalresourcesdegradationandimproving systemproductivity;
• identificationof factorsresponsiblebehindyieldgaps and findingsolutionsto
resolvestagnating productivityindifferent
productionsystems;
• researchin humanfood-safety issuesinplantandanimaloriginfoodchain;
• developing packagestoachievelow-cost
technological andhighqualityproducts;
• enhancing balanceduseoffertiliser organicmatter
andincreasing and
availabilities;
• encouraging smallfarmers' oriented farming.
corporate
A fewinstitutional maybe undertaken
initiatives including:
immediately
• strengthening Policy Institute(API) so that
and reorganisingAgricultural
besidesfarmeconomicanalysis,I can handlemacrolevel issues,particularly
tradeandpolicyanalysis;
iscalled
21This rural
lensapproach andinUKrural
inCanada [OECD(2007)].
proofing

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All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
920 Ahmad
andFarooq

• strengtheningthe existing(or establishingnew if not existed) provincial

EconomicResearchInstituteswithbestowingadditionalmandateof foodpolicy
and
analysis;
"NationalCommission
• establishing on Farmers(NCF).
Role oftheGovernment:
• Government shouldbe proactiveto thecommodity crisisratherthanact when
thecrisisalreadyhappened.
• There shouldbe systematiccommodityforecasting mechanismso thatfood
demand-supply mechanismcould more be
effectively managed.
• A separate food securityfund should be created,ratherthan diverting
developmentresourcesin case the food productionis below the national
demands.
• Government mayprotectpricebandsin betweenimport andexportparityprices,
rather
thanpan-territorial
pricingthat crowed outprivatesector.

7. CONCLUDING REMARKS
Reducingpoverty,hungerand food insecurity are essentialpartof Millennium
Development Goals. Pakistan is a low income developingcountry and agriculture is its
mostimportant sectordue to its primary commitment of providinghealthyfoodto her
fastgrowingpopulation.In past60 yearsPakistan,thetotalcultivated area has increased
byjust 40 percent, whiletherewas morethan4 timesincreasein populationwithurban
expansionof over seven-foldcausingrisingpopulationpressureon cultivatedland.
Despitethatwheatproduction has increasedby five-fold,thecountry is stillitsmarginal
importer. Tremendous effortsare needed to narrow thegap between fooddemanddue to
populationgrowthand domesticfood production. Managingfood securityin Pakistan
requiresan understanding about how agriculturalpolicies affectfood supply and
incomes,thepoorvulnerablein ruraland urbanareas.The mainfocusof thispaperis to
tracethepathways to achieve/maintain foodandnutritional securityinPakistan.
the
Unfortunately, policy makers are only concentrating on attainingand
maintaining self sufficiencyin wheatproduction. Periodically,stronginterventions are
made in termsof significant increasein wheatsupportpricesalong withsubsidising
fertiliserprices to achieve bumperwheat crop. Such interventions seriouslydistort
relativelyprofitabilityof cultivation of otherrabi season food crops,e.g. othercoarse
grains,pulsesandoilseeds.
On theotherhand,thewaygovernment is managingprocurement and distribution
of foodcropsforlow pricesof wheatflourlikeoffering wheatflourat subsidisedprices,
incomesupport,cheap breadon tandursetc.,whichhas heavilyburdenedthenational
exchequeras well as encourageddevelopment of differentcartelsand mafias,e.g. wheat
flourindustry, poultryhatcheryand feed industry, etc. The recentlyadoptedwheat
procurement andprivatestoragepolicyhas heavilycostto nationalexchequeras onlyRs
262.5 billionworthof wheathas beenstoredwhileRs 414 billionarepayabletobanks.
A numberof real worldchallengesand constraints have been highlighted for
facilitatingpolicy makersin designinga comprehensive food securitypolicy forthis
country. In theway forward, some recommendations are made along withhighlighting

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 FoodSecurity
inPakistan 92 1

the need of new institutions

for developinga R&D based infrastructure
as well as
the
defining roleof thegovernmentin foodsector
ofPakistan.

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