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    HD GD ELLIOTT (1)

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    26 views189 pages

    HD GD Elliott

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    phtrungtin2320

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
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    at Leite: | HUGNG DAN a GIAO DICH "Downd mién phi tai Hind SONG Thu vién tai chinh T.me/Kienthuctaichinh " i f J ' re T T DN ON Aaa aac Pea Tere em eh nD Goa Bloomberg HUGNG DAN GIAO DICH THEO SONG ELL y VISUAL GUIDE TO ELLIOT WAVE TRADING WAYNE GORMAN JEFFREY KENNEDY ufge gisi thigu ba chuyén gia hang dau vé séng Elliott ROBERT R.PRECHTER, JR. Nguti dich: TRUONG MINH HUY Dart. DINELNGHIA: Céc thudt ngit chuyén mén déu duigc dink ghia r6 rang néu xust hign trong qué trinh thio lun, ) TIU DIEM: Cc ¥ tuéing quan trong sé duigc lam néi bat > CACH THUC Si? DUNG CAC HAM CHUC NANG TRONG THIET B] DAU CUGI CUA BLOOMBERG: Déi vi nhitog ngudi sit dung thit bj dia cusi cia Bloomberg, s& ed mot bing gidi thigu céc ham chic ning dé ban doc e& thé tra ctu kj luGing ham cfc chit 8 trong cusn sich nay trén thigtbj ddu cusi Bloomberg. LHUGNG DAN GIAO DICH THEO SONG ELLIOTT CAC TAI LIEU KEM THEO ‘Mi cun sich “Hiudng Dain Thue Hanh’ sé bao gm mot s6 e-book bing ting Anh nb sau: > CAC VIDEO GIANG DAY: Dé minh hoa mét s6 Khéi snigm khi thy hanh trong thy t& > KIEM TRA KIEN THUC: Bao gm céc clu héi nhiéu uyén a chon hoc ciu hdi Aing/sai dé rén ayn cdc ign thie va ky nding dugc A& cip trong cusin sich nay. > CAC CUA 86 QUANG CAO: Bé dinh nghia mot s6 thuat. ng quan trong. Luu ¥ cho bin dich tiéng Viet: Ban dich vn cung clip cfc dung link truy c&p ede e-book tiéng Anh nhuing nhom. dich Khéng dich céc tai ligu nay sang tiéng Vigt vi khong NGUYEN LY SONG ELLIOTT CAI TIEN CAC CONG CU PHAN TICH KY THUAT TRUYEN THONG NHU THE NAO Cé ba cong cu phan tich ky thuat 1a: cae chi béo xu > NAM CACH SU DUNG NGUYEN LY SONG huténg, céc chi bdo dao dong va cic chi béo do luting ELLIOTT D£ CAI THIEN HOAT DONG ‘tam ly thi truing (sentiment), Cac chi bdo theo sau xu SuopicH hhutdng bao gém cic dutdng trung binh di dong, chi bio ACD, vi chi bo dinh huténg ADX. Mét s6 chi bao dao dong phé bign duge céc nha giao dich thuding stt dung Sau dy i nam céch sit dung Nguyén Ly Séng Elliott c6 thé ‘ip ich cho ban va lam cai thign than qua giao dich: 1, Nguyén Ly Séng Elliott giép xe din xu huténg chin hhién nay la: chi béo Stochastic Oscillator, cit thi trating. Tiéu DIEM chi bao ROC (Rate of Change), va chi béo 2. Né gp xéc dinh cde chuyén dng gid nguae huéng xu Kjnang phantich CCI (Commodity Channel Index). Cie chi hudng én. ‘thuge v8 sy tinh bbéo tm ly thi teuémg bao gém ty Ie 96 3. NO giip nic dinh kha ning do chigu xu huéng pee Iugng hop déng quyén chon bin/s6 tong 4. Cung ep cdc muc tifu gi c6 46 tin cy cao. dich thanh céng hop déng quyén chon mua (put-call ratio) 5. Chi ra cfc diém cu thé ma miu hinh gid bi sai ghia la ban phai lam chii duge chinh ban than minh, va chi bio COT (Commitment of Trader) (onvatidation). ‘Céc eng cu phan tich ky thudt trén tay Inu ich nhuing vin e6 mét thiéu s6t Ién: 40 41 ‘CHUGNG |: GIAI PHAU PHUONG PHAP GIAO DICH BANG SONG ELLIOTT >» 1, XAC DINH XU HUONG CHINH THI TRUONG “MBit xu hung ln ludn trdi qua nai séng..2 - Teich te iA ccuén sich Nguyén Ly Séng Elliott cia Frost va Prechter. Nguyén Ly Séng Elliott gidp xic din huéng cia xu |huéng chinh, Nam s6ng tng cho thay xu huéng chin 1a tng gid. Nguige lai, nam sng gidm chi ra xu huding on dang gidm gié. Ti sao thong tin nay la rat quan trong? Vi bban s# d8 dang hon Ki giao dich theo hudng ctia xu huiéng chin, vi d6 1 con dutég it khang ew nba va diy chinh ‘chu cham ngén c6: "x hudng ld ban”. Toi nh ra giao dich theo hiding cita xu hung chinh dé ding hon so v6i vide cf ging ban tai din va mua tal dy (mot cOng vigethuc sit kkhé khan va gin nh la bat kha thi). >»2. XAC BINH CAC CHUYEN DONG GIA NGUOC XU HUONG CHINE “Ce chuyn dong gud chiéu xu hudéng chinh sé dién ra theo ba song.” -Trich ti cudn sich Nguyen Lf Song Eliott ciia Frost va Prechter. Nguyén Ly Séng Eliott cing giip xc dinh céc chuyén > 3. XAC DINH KHA NANG DAO CHIEU XU HUONG. Gidng nhw RAN, Eliott dé quan sit, cic miu hinh sng Eliot Ibs lap ll cfc eda tr lén bing cc ca tric nh hon bén trong ching Song Elliott 4 duge kiém ching bai mét trong ba phat hién In clia Khoa hoc vat Ij thé kj 20 la “Ly ‘Thuyét Hon Mang (Chaos Theory)". Séng Elliott c6 tinh chat cda hinh hoe Fractal, duge higu don gidn ta ‘sir lip lal cla cd trac lon bang cde céiu tric nhé hon. ben trong chiing. Vi du, ban hay quan sat qué sup Jo, Néu ban ngat mét nhdnh nhé qua sup lo va quan. sat ching, ban sé thay hinh dang cua mot ahénh. ‘nhé nay ging het nhu qua sip la lén. Tinh chat hinh hoc Fractal cla s6ng Elliott chinh Ia tinh chat “sng trong s6ng" - Chi thich cua ngudi dich, Su lap lai trong cfu tric sng dutgc gol tinh chét hinh hoc Fractal cia hanh dong gié nu minh hoa trong hinh 1.1 ‘Séng (1) duige chia than nim s6ng nhé hon nbitng chi fa :mét phin trong méu hinh nim s6nglén hon. Thong tin niy (CHONG 1: GIAI PHAU HUONG PHAP GIAO DICH BANG SONG ELLIOTT hii ich nt thé nao? Thu sv, thong tin nay 4a git cc nha siao dich thé xic djnh kha ning dio chiéu (maturity) cia sau huiéng. Vi dy, néu gié da ting dén séng 5 trong céu tric tng gid gdm nam song va séng 5 nay da hoin tt ba hode ‘bén séng:nhé hon bén trong, aba giao dich c6 thé hiéu ring «day khéng pha a thai digm thich hop dé b6 sung vi thé mua. ‘Thay vio 46, iy fa thoi diém t6t dé chot loi nhudn hod it nnhét la ning lénh ding I6 len dé bao vé igi nhusin 6 dig. Vi Nguyén Ly Séng Eliott xc dinh xu huéng, cic chuyén dng nguige xu hung chinh, va kh ning do chigu xu hung, khong ngac nhién tai sao Nguyén Lj Song cling {ip ching ta phat hign su tr Ipieta xu hudng chin. MOU hi céc chuyén dong nguge xu hung dign ra theo ba song (A-B-O), cu tric song nay c6 thé I tin higu cho thay xu hung ckinh a tré lai, mot khi hanh dOng gié vuot qua (1) 6) 5 4 Hinh 11 (Cc in hig giao dich theo sing Eliott 1 HIGU GIAO DICH THEO SONG eLLIOTT dinh cia sng B. Biét duge Khi no xu hung chinh sé tr laimang dén mot loi thé lin: N6 lam ting khd ning ob duge nhting giao dich thinh c6ng, va sé cing thinh céng hon iia néu nhui két hgp wi cic cng cu ky thudttruyén théng, >» 4. CUNG CAP CAC MUC TIEU GIA (Che cbng cu kf thus truyén thing khong cung cp cdc mye tiéu gid vi mmc 6 tin cdy cao ging nhu Nguyén Ly Séng. Khi RN. Eliott viét vé Nguyén Ly Song trong cusn sich ‘Ludt Ti Nhién, 6ng khing dinh day s6 Fibonacci 1a nén ting todn hoc cho Nguyen Ly Séng. Séng Elliot, ci sing. dy va séng higu chin, vin di du c6 lin quan dé cée ty 1g Fibonacci. Vi dy, tét cd cde ba séng chuyén dng (motive ‘waves) déu cé lién bé v6i nhau theo thuat toén Fibonacci, cu thé li cde con s6 nbut 1,618 ho¥e 2,618 (Mn hugt ft nghich dio cba céc con s6 Fibonacci khdc nhit 0,618 v8 0,382) yHinb 1.2 5 yiinh13 og Séng 5 mé réng “a Cc tin hig giao dich theo séng Eliott cHUGNG 1 GGIAL PHAU PHUONG PHAP GIAO DICH BANG SONG ELLIOTT Bis séng1 mérong a Hinh 14 (Ge tin higu giao dich theo séng Eliott Hin 15 (Cac tin higu giao dich theo song Eliott 0,618 = 910,382 Afi é (Gi tn higu gia dick theo sing Eliott TIN HIEW GIAO DICH THEO SONG ELLIOTT Xem binh 1.2, hinh 1.3 va hinh 14 ‘Tutomg ty, s6ng higu chinh thutding thoi lui theo cdc ‘ty 1g phan tram Fibonacci so véi s6ng trudc d6. Nhiing ite gid tvong ting véi cde ty I¢ Fibonacci cho phép nha giao dich thigt lip muc tiéu gid chét lai va xéc din nnhitng mic gid ma 6 dé c6 kha nang din ra sv do chiéu (xem Hinh 1.5 va Hinh 1.6) >»5, CUNG CAP CAC “DIEM MO HINH KHONG CO GIA TR] (INVALIDATION)” MOT CACH RO RANG. Phan tich séng Elliott 6 thé chi ra nhiéing “dim mo hinh khdng 06 gi tri” mot ch 16 rang i mic gi ma eich tte <ém song Elliott hign tai khdng cn ding, Biétkhi no ban sai 66 théng tin quan trong nit a6 wei mot nha giao dich, ‘Tai mtic gid nio sé cho thay mot giao dich thé bai? Nhiéu nha giao dich sit dung cic quy tic quan tri tién nhiim tim ra

    CAC SONG DAY Bit kj khi nao séng dy hoan tat, hung din giao dich tay ‘thude vio 46 si cia séng higu chinh, “Song hitu chink, dic bigt Id song 4, thudng 6 Khuynh hudng thodi li vé cham ving gid song 4 trude 6 cika céip 6 sing nhé hin mot cp, thudng la cham mite cule diém (tic dink hoac déy) cia nd.” ~ Teich tit cud sich Nguyen Lf Séng Elliott cia téc gid Frost va Prechter. Mge dit huéng din nay c6 vé phifc tap, nhuing Iai dé dang thytc ign trong giao dich thy t€. KV thuat giao dich Ia tham gia md vi thé tai diém pha va mite dy (néua xu huéng trutée 46 1a ting gid) hod tai dinh (néw xu hung trudc dé la gidm gid) cha s6ng [iv] trong séng 5 (xem Hinh 1.8). Dé ching t6 thi tréng thiét lap dinh, yéu céu thi truéng phai pha thing day cia dao dong trude 46 nhut la bing chiing cho théy séng day thyc sit hodn tat. Do 46, nha giao dich thiét ap lénh ditng 18 tai SONG BAY Tai ring ng oie a Hinh 1s (Cie tin higu giao dich theo sing dy Tal rg glam ats [CHUONG 1: G1AI PHAU PHUGNG PHAP GIAO DICH BANG SONG ELLIOT TIN HIBU GIAO DICH THEO SONG ELLIOTT inh gin nbét (néu ban dang ban tit xu hung ting gid 1 tham gia mé vi thé Kkhi gié phé ve duéng xu hudng trudc dé) hode day gin nhét (néu ban dang mua ti xu ni céc eye diém (1a dink hode day) cha séng 2 va sing uténg gldm trude 46). 4. Trong truding hop nay, lénh dimg 16 nén duge dat tai 4c céc eve diém (dink hode day gn nhat) cta miu hinh > SONG CHEO (ENDING DIAGONAL) (sem inh 1.10) Huéng din thi&t lap tin higu giao dich va dat lenh ding 18 ‘Néu ban xic dinb bin than a mot nha giao dich cue ky bban dau cho song chéo tung ty mut cic séng dy: nghia la ning dng, sau dt lt hiding dn thi lap tin higu giao dich ch& cho dén Ki gid phd wo mic déy (néu xu hiding tribe d6 cho ban. Thong thuting, song 3 trong séng chéo ngin hon 1, tang gi) hoge mie dinh (néa xu hung true 46 la gm s0-v6is6ng 1. Trong trading hop nay, quy t&e séng cho ring 8) cha séng 4 truéc khi maw thé, va dt Ienh ding 16 ban séng 5 sé phai ngin han séng 3, vi mc dt: nim trong séng tai dinh hose day gin nhét (xem Hinh 1.9). chéo, nhuing quy the s6 3 n6i ring, song 3 khéng bao gids A Nén ahé, nhitng kf thuét thi lp tin higu giao dich séng ngén nbit gita cic séng day 1, 3 va 5. Do dé, ban cé 4 day minh hoa cho tu duy than trong ma t6t thubng ép thé bat du gii ngin ting phan khi song 5 dang dién tin dung trong host dong giao dich “sin sing, ng, ngim, rng... vi bdn” (hay ngdm that kp trudckhi ban). Nhung rnéu ban la mot nha giao dich nang déng hon, thi lam thé nao dé thyc hign tin higu giao dich khi xuét higu ‘mu hinh s6ng chéo? Mot phuiong phép ning ddng hon SONG CHEO ‘Tal ng te it TH acta pdm lt > Hinb 1.10 ‘Neuén: Cc tn higu giao dich theo sing chéo Bay la céch giao dich cuc ky nang déng va do 46 mana Xing €¢ ri ro cao vi chura 06 sirxée nhén cua hanh . a ‘d6ng gi. Thyc hién hay khéng thy hién ky thuat “hitting ting Thien alm ale ‘a0 dich ny ho’n toa phy thude vao kha v iro a Hinh 19 ‘eda nha giao dich, C4 nhan ti, ngudi thue Hanh ‘Negus: Cc tn higu giao dich theo s6ng chéo ‘CHONG 1: GIAT PHAU PHUONG PHAP GIAO DICH BANG SONG ELLIOTT ‘s6ng Elliott, Khong giao dich theo kj thuét nay vi ti la ngudie ngai ri ro - Chi thich ciia ngudi dich. Len diing I6 trong truémg hgp nay nén dit tai diém ‘ma séng$ khéng trd nén dai hon so v6i sng 3, vimé hinh séng chéo xic dinh ay la “dim mé inh khéng cé gid tri’ > SONG DANG ZIGZAG Cich du tién dé tham gia md vj thé khi ob dang séng Zigzag J gid phai phd vo dinh hose day cha séng liv] trong séng C. Litu¥, inh cia séng [iv] phai dm bio nim cao hon diy s6ng A trong thi triéng gid len hodc day sing liv] thép hon dinh cia song A trong thi trudng gid xudng (xem hiah 1.10). (Cich més vi thé thet hat Ia ch cho dén khi gid vuot qua dinh hofe déy cia séng B trac khi hanh dng (xem hin 1.12). Linh ditng 18 nén dat tai dinh hod day cia séng C. iy 1a phuong phap than trong hon so v6i cich lam du SONG ZIGZAG ‘hj tring ting it ‘Taj tang idm gid aa Hinb Lt (Gc tin Bib giao dich theo song Zigeag TIN HIBU GIAO DICH THEO SONG ELLIOTT ‘tin, nhim trén bat day va bin dink md khong c6 di bang ching xéc thu ‘VE ly tudng, cic nha giao dich sé sit dung cic hudng dn thiét lap tn higu giao dich trén va digu chinh cho phit hop w6i phong céch giao dich cita chin minh. Thc sy, sit ddyng mu hinh séng dang zigzag lam vi du, tham chi mot sha giao dich than trong cé thé phai ché dgi kha lau trutée ‘Khi tham gia mé vi thé va yeu cfu phai c6 chuyén dng nim s6ng vuot qua dinh hoc day cia sOng B trong mau hinh s6ng higu chinh.( xem Hinh 1.12) > SONG DANG PHANG (FLAT) Vi séng cubi cing trong sing higu chinh dang phing duige chia than nam séng, kf thuat thiét lap tin higu giao dich tulong ty nhut véi song dy: nghia la cher cho dé Khi gid ‘yigt dinh hode day cia song [iv] trong séng C dé tham gia giao dich (xem hinh 1.13). Lau y, phuong php nay khong duige sit dung vai séng higu chinh dang zigzag (trong 46 s6ng C cling duige chia thinh nam séng) vi ching han nbut Ta stng tg it fink 1.12 (Cac tn hig giao dich theo sing Zigzag Trieira aime 57 CCHUONG 1: GIAI PHAU PHUONG PHAP G1AO DICH BANG SONG B1L107F ‘mot s6ng higu chinh zigzag trong thi tring tang gid, song. liv] cia sng C e6 thé nm dui dy cta s6ng A, trong khi di véi song higu chinh dang phing trong thi trudng ting si, séng liv] cia s6ng C thing 6 Khuynh huéng mdm tén day cia song A. SONG PHANG i @ a” 8 Tecéne naa Tee 4 Hinh 113 (Ce tn hig giao dich theo song ping > SONG DANG TAM GIAC Huéng din thiét Igp tin higu giao dich cudi cing la cho song higu chinh dang tam gic (xem Hinh 1.14), Sng tam gic lA dang chuyén dng gid di ngang, digc inh thinh bai hai dug xu hung hoi tu lai voi nhau va phan chia thinh che séng nh6 bén trong la A, B, C, D va E, Huldng dn thiét lip tin higu giao dich déi véi dang s6ng nay la chi cho dén hi gid phd vi dink ho8e ay cia song D. Biém it len ding 16 du tin la tai ddy hod dinh cita sng B. TR: khong khuya khich thc ign céc tin higu giao dich ning dOng di ‘v6i dang s6ng nay vi sing tam giéc thuding hay dn kia ban: Vi chting e6 thé xudt hign 6 sng 4, B hoge vi tr cia séng X, 58 1 HIBU GIAO DICH THEO SONG ELLIOTT nén tréng thi c6-vé la song 4 tam gide ting glé nhung thyc chit lai séng B tam gide giim gi. [Mot nha giao dich vi phong céch dau tu niing dong. chic chin sé thich mé vi thé tric khi gié pha v8 dinh hode diy cia séng D. Néu lam thé, t6i dé nghi sit dung dy bode dinh ciia séng A lam dim dat Iénh diing 16 du tién thay vi song C. Bigu may Ia do cfc thi trudmg o& phiéu hoe cic thi trudng cé thanh khoan that thuding xudt hign inh trang gid cham vio séng C va dio chiéu (do 46, dat nh ditng 16 tal ddy hoiie dinh cita song C la khOng an toan bai cde tin higu nhiu). SONG TAM GIAC i B Thieeaeng ana a ‘hinting oar a > Hin 114 (Ge tin hig giao dich theo song tam gide NHUNG VAN DE TRONG YEU THUONG B| PHOT LO - QUAN TRI RUI RO VA TAM LY GIAO DICH hi thio ludn im th€ nao dé tré than mot nha giao dich thanh céng bén vang, 6 hai yéut6 ma ban thing bd qua la qui trio vi tam I gio dich 59 CHUONG 1: GIA LOI KHUYEN 1thy PHUONG PHAP GIAO DICH BANG SONG ELLIOTT Vi cha dé quan tr) riiro la eve ky quan CUANHA DAU TUT ‘72°8 cho thinh cong bén ving cia m6i THONG MINH tha giao dich, ching ta hay thdo lun di Kigm soat tam ly chat vé t) 1 loi nhugn/rdi ro va quy mé vi sgiao dich I chia ea Ka dé ethan“ i8odieh nha giao dich thanh 3 i: on ang ban varie > TY LBLOI NHUAN/RUIRO TYSOLOINHUAN/ thie do din gi med i 0 50 v6 RUIRO Ty 86 loi nhuan/ri rolatyle duoc str dung 48 so sanh ty suat sinh loi ky vong 80 v6i ri ro nhufan tiém ning cho méi giao dich. Néu ban sma c6 phigu XYZ vi gid 50 USD va kj vong ‘sé ting lén mtlc 51 USD, Igi nhugn tiém nang 18.1 USD. Néu Iénh diing 16 cho vj thé mua chap nay dit tai mic 49 USD ty 36 Ii nhuan/rai rnhan. Theo céch dng thong Ig, ty s6 loi nhuan/rii ro thé rola 1:1 - nghfa la ban chap nin dit cuge rbi 10 1 USD dé nhin vé Igi nhuén 1 USD. Néw hign theo s6 loinhuén gn diing 16 due dt tai 49,9 USD thi tp s6 kiém duge trén mot don vj rdi ro. 60 Tigi nhuan/rti x01 102. LUU ¥: Trong nguyén g6c tiéng Anh, thudt ngit ma chiing t6i dang dich Ia “le gi nhudn/riir0” la “risk/reward ratio” (tte néu dich sét ghia phi ty s6 “ri ro/loi nhuén”),nhuing ty s6 may thudng éutge bat du bing céch ghi loi nhuan & phia {rude vari ro nim 6 phia sau. Thuat ngit Risk - Reward thuéng rat dé gay nham ln. Theo chuain mye quée té, nén dich thuat ng nay I8 ri ro/ loi nhugn vi nguyén ban tiéng anh la Risk-Reward. Trong 46, ho quy ude cdch ghi con s6 TIN HIRU GIAO DICH THEO SONG ELLIOTT nguge li, ttc da con $6 lot nhuan ra trude. Vi du, Risk-Reward 10:1 tic la Ri ro (risk) [1 trong khi Lol Nhuan (Reward) 18 10. Tuy nhién, cée nha giao dich Viet Nam c6 théi quen doe ngugc lai, va goi a ty 16 oi inhu€n/rii ro - Chi thich ca ngudi dich. Vithé, trong vi dy nay, ri xo a1 va lgi nh [a 10, va by sé nay duige ghi la 10:1, chit khong phil ld. 1:10. Trong giao dich thye t,t loi nhudn/rii ro 4 mde 3:1 1a ding mong \iée va kha thi “TF Ie loi nbudn/ri ro cao la mot him cia xéc suit. Gi st ban cé6 71 giao dich than céng la. 70% va ty Ié loi nnhudn/rii ro cho méi giao dich la 1:1, Do dé, sau khi két thiic mudi Iugt giao dich, sé cb bay giao dich dugc chét vi gi nhufn 1 USD, trong khi 6 ba giao dich bj 15 1 USD. ‘Tong ket, ban lai 4 USD. Ban nght diéu gi sé xiy ra néu ching ta ting tj 1é loi nbugn/rii ro ti 1:1 lén 3:1 va gid ‘716 giao dich thanh céng tit 70% xudng cbn 40%? Voi ty 1 3:, hic nay Igi nbugn cho bén giao dich than cng sé la 12. USD (indi giao dich thanh cng lat 3 USD). Néu chiing ta tri 6 USD cho siu giao dich thua Ib (méi giao dich 16.1 USD), ban sé c6 Igi nhuan 6 USD. Su Khe bigt ny cho thay ty 1¢ Toi nbusinrit ro quan ‘trong nu thé nao khi gidm tf Ié giao dich thanh céng xusing ‘ein mot mia (tt 70% xuing 40%) trong khi ban ting tlt nnhuiin/rii ro lén sé Lam ting loi nhudn them 50%, Biga ma cic nha giao dich méi vio nghé thudmg hiéu nhm li ho phi QUY MO VI THE GIAO DICH [Nha giao dich nén thyc hign quy mé vj thé nhu thé nio cho mii giao dich? (Quy mo vi thé giao dich (Trade Size) dude higw Id mua hodic bin s6 long bao nhiéu c6 phiéu, bao mhiéu hop dng hay bao nhiéu lot (trong giao dich forex ~ chit thich ciia ngui dich), Ri ro cho mbi giao dich khdng bao gid ‘uige phép vuot qué 1-396 tng vén toan danh mye. Cée nha giao dich abo léthuémg vi pham cfc tf nay trong khi cée nha giao dich chuyén nghigp thudng tuén thi: ching Vi dy, néu sit dung mite ri ro cho mei giao dich fa 1% dt ‘vGi thi khodn 5.000 USD, ttic l anh ta chi duge phép dat ‘cuge ri ro 50 USD cho mdi vj thé. Trong khi dé, mét nha giao dich khdc cé tai khoan 10.000 USD cé thé thyc hién hai vj thé giao dich, véi m&i vi thé c6 rai ro 50 USD (téng hai vj thé c6 rai ro 100 USD). Nhiéu nha giao dich phai TIN HIEU GIKO DICH THEO SONG FLLIOTT 1 hd cube cho vi ho khong od tién ‘ ee * LOI KHUYEN trong tai Khon dé thyc hign cic vith€S GGA NHA DAU TU’ ‘quy m6 mong muén (bay néi céch Khsc, THONG MINH ho thuding giao dich véi mite ri ro vuat Cc nha giao dich nén han ché giao dich co ty Ie lot nhudn /rii ro duci 3:1 qué mie chju dving cta quy mé tai khoan hign cd). 'Néu ban 6 m@t ti khodn nh, ban e6 thé Khe phe vn may bing eich giao dich v6i quy m6 ‘vi thé nhé. Ban c6 thé chi giao dich vai hgp d6ng, giao dich mot 66 hop 4éng chi 6, hod thm chi la Gt s6 c6 phiéu penny. Loi ket, trén con dung tré than nha giao dich thank céng béa ving, ban pha nin ra miu chat phai sinh t6n lw di, NEu ri ro cho mi vi thé giao no dich véi dich IA tuong d6i nhé so v6i quy mo tai khoan cba ban, ban cb thé chiu dung duigc chuoi thua Ié kéo dai, Nguige lai néa ban dat cuge ri ro bing 25% t6ng tai khodn cho mdi lin giao dich, thi chi cfn chudi bén bvgt thua Ié lién tip, ban 8 bj ogi bd ra khi cud cho TAM LY GIAO DICH Mi di t6ixem quan ti ri rola yu 8 then cht cho giao dich thanh cng, nbuing chia khéa thule si Iai nim & tam If giao dich - nghia la chinh tim Ij cia ban {do Iuin mt s6 Khia can tim ly gin cic nha giao dich cb duge thinh cong bén ving dé li: thu mot phuong phép lun, thiéu kj luat, nhiing ky vong khong thyc té, va thiéu kién nn, Bit ké ban li mt nha giao dich chuyn nghiép hay chi aks tip vita mai bute chan vio thi trudmg, mau chit ng ta hay 63 (CHUONG 1: GIAI PHAU PHUONG PHAP GIAO DICH BANG SONG ELLIOTT 64 {rdnén thanh céng la théu hia tm quan trong ctia tim cA nnhan dér thinh qua giao dich, > THIEU PHUONG PHAP LUAN [Néu ban dat myc tidu te thanh nha giao dich than cng bén wing, ban phai cé mét dink nghfa dom gin, r6 ring va stictich vé phutong phap giao dich khi tham gia vao céc thi trading, Thue st, vige ¢6 mot phuong phép giao dich quan. trong déa ndi ma nha sing lip cia cong ty EWI 1 Robert Prechter phi dat lén né lén du trong bat luda: “Dieu gi thes giip nha giao dich trd nén than cong” EWI la viét tat ca Elliott Wave International, mot trong nhing céng ty hang dau thé giét vé tw van thi ‘rung bang séng Eliott do Robert Prechter sing lap. Website: www.elliottwave.com - Cha thich cia gud dich. Bon m} va hanh dng theo cim xc bin ning khong hau ich trong dai han, Néu ban khong c6 mot phuong php lugn 16 rang, ban sé khOng biét tin higu mua hod bn thé nao 18 ding tin cy Lam thé no ban 06 thé khde phuc vin 48 nay? Lei gid cho cu hoi may la hay vit ra phutong phép giao dich cita ban. ina nghia bing cich viétra ning céng cu phan tich cia ban va quan trong hon la, ban sé sit dung chiing nhut thé nao. NO khéng phai la vin dé ban sit dung Nguyén Ly Song ElLott hay dé thi diém va hink, chi béo Stochastic, ST hod két hop céc céng cu trén. Vin dé la ban phai dua ‘The HIEU GIAO DICH THEO SONG ELLIOT aro rang vé cdi gh hinb thin nén tin higu mua, tfn higu bin va céch dit lénh ditng 18, céch di chuyén len ding 18 vi ning hung din dng vi ‘thé. Goi #6 nhat ma t6i dé nghi véi ban 1 bay dinh nghia phuong phap giao dich LOI KHUYEN CUA NHA DAUTU" THONG MINH Giao dich thanh cong di héi phai cé triét ly giao dich ro rang va ky luat dé tuan thé no. ciia ban bing céch sau: Néu ban khong thé viet n6 vita trong thé bai e6 kich 60 3 inch x 5 inch, thi phuong phép cia ban qua phe tap. inch bang 2.54 em. Tic ban phai ghi phuong phap ugn ra tém gidy 06 kich thuée 8 om x 12 em - Chi thich eda ngudi dich. > rHIEU KY LUAT Mot khi ban 4a dinh nghia 16 ring vi xée dinh duge phuiong phép giao dich, ban phi c6 kj luat tuan thi hé ‘théng, Thigu kj lust giao dich 1 sai lém phé bign thi hai cia nhiéu nha giao dich c6 nhiéu mong wéc. Néu cich ban xem d6 thi gif hode dinh gid céc tin higu giao dich tiém nang ngiy hom nay khéc véi cach ban da lam céch day mot thang, 4iéu d6 cho thay ban khéng hé xic dinh 16 phutang phap giao dich hoc thiéu kj luat dé tuin theo hg théng giao dich ctia ban. Cong thitc thanh cng la pha kien dinh dp dung véi mot phutong php giao dich da duge kigm chiing thank cng. 65 CCHUONG 3: GLAI PHAU PHIUONG PHAP GIAO DICH BANG SONG ELLIOTT > NHUNG KY VONG THIEU THYC TE Khong digu gi lam t6i tic gidn hom la nhitng edu quang cdo sai sx that cia nhitng ga kink doanh dei logi nh" Moe thé giao dlc tri gid 5.000 USD @ Kh Gas Tu Nhién sbi thank han 40.000 USD" Kia quang céo nay la nhtng kigu ta do, choi him rat phé bign trong ngink tai chinh va kétcuc khign cho cle nha du tu thiéu kién thie phai thua 1é hon 5.000 USD cho vi thé ny. Ngodi ra, nhiing gé kinh doanh quing cio tao nn nhiing tim fy x bai cc kj-vong khong hop I. ‘Vang, c6 thé ban dat duigc ty sudt sinh Igi cao hon mute binh quan chung, Tuy nhién, digu dé sé ching ¢6 nhiéu ¥ nghia néu nhut ben chp nhén mute ri LOI KHUYEN ro cao hon mie trang bink. Vi thé, dé CUANHADAUTU 1a miic ty suit sinh Ioi ky vong hop If THONG MINH cho nha giao dich trong nim giao dich Hay 6 ky vong thc 16. Vidy, myc tieu cla ‘céc nha giao dich moi khdi sula dimg dé bi mat tién trong nm giao dich dau tien. NOL cach khde, chi c&n dat duge ty suat sinh Iai (0% trong nim giao dich dau tien, 66 du tien: 50%, 100% ho¥e 200%? Woa! Hay kiém ché ning ky vong khong hop ly. Theo quan diém cia ti, myc tiéu cho mi nha giao dich trong nim du tién li khong bi mat tién, N6i céch Khe, hy at ra mye tiéu loi nhuan 0% cho nam giao dich dau tien. Néu ban c6 thé lam duige digu nay trong hai nim, sau 46 ‘mdi c6 ging dinh bai chi s6 Dow va S&P, [Nhiing muc tiéu nay khong hé xa vi ma rat thycté > THIEU KIEN NHAN- 1L6i tam ly tht tu ma ngay c4 mot nha giao dich lau nim cing gip phai la thigu kién nhan, Theo Edwards va Magee TW HIEU GIAO DICH THEO SONG ELLIOT trong cubn sich kinh dién Phin Tick K¥ Thudt vé Xu Huténg Chitng Khodn (Technical Analysis of Stock Trends), th trudng chi c6 khoding 30% thai gian cé xu hung. Diga ay c6 nghia 70% thai gian, thi trudng kh6ng cé xu hung, “Xéc sud nhd nay cé thé gil thc tai sa0 to tin ring, & ‘bt cit hung thai gian no, cfing chi c6 hai hoc ba ca hoi giao dich thu sy tt. VI du, néu ban la mot nha giao dich dai han, thu si ci e6 hai hodc ba dat s6ng dui t6t dé giao dich m6i nim, Tuong ty, néu ban li nha giao dich ngin han, chi 6 hai hodc ba tin higu giao dich c6 d@ tin ely cao 8 giao dich méi tun, Rat thuding xuyén, v1 giao dich ti chinh bin than né von di rt hap dn (va bat ci thé gi lién quan én tién éu ‘it cudn hit), nén dé hiéw tai sao ban sé cim thay h6i tiée kkhi bé lo tht gi d6 néu nhu ban khéng giao dich, Két qua 18, ban bat déu thye hign nhatng tin higu giao dich 6 46 tin cay thap va trd nén giao dich qua mic Lim thé nio dé Khdc phuc tinh thigu kién nhin? Hay nhac ban ring mdi tudn ludn sé c6 mét “cit giao dich cia nim’ Néi cach Khe, diing lo ling vi da bd 16 ca hoi giao dich ngiy hém nay, vi ngay mai, tudn ti va thing {i... sé €6 eo hoi dnb cho ban... Toi cam doan véi ban digu nayl 7 (CHUONG I: GIAI PHU PHUONG PHAP GIAO DICH BANG SONG ELLIOTT CAC THONG TIN B6 SUNG Ban doc cé thé tham khao cc tai ligu khdc trong Reader Resources theo dung link w.elliottwave.comiwavel dey Resouces. Trong phan nay, ban sé nhin thy cubn sich onkne c6 ten “Elliott Wave Principle (Nguyén Ly.Séng Elliott” ciia Frost va Prechter, cling w6i cc bai hoc vé phan tich séng Elliott, fam thé ndo dé giao dich theo ting ‘miu hinh song cu thé, va lam thé nao sit dung lz | Fibonacci va cic chi bao ky thust Khe nhim Ble "Tyga ting niém tin cia ban khi ép dung Nguyén 1 Song Elliott vao giao dich thy té a Xem thé video v8 tim ‘quan trong cia Kid hie 1 Bj ude trong hoat déng giao dich 68 ‘TIN HIBU GIAO DICH THEO SONG ELLIOTT KIEM TRA KIEN THUC CUA BAN ‘Hiay tra lai cdc céu hdi san theo hai dép an BUNG/SAT: 1. Phin tich va Giao Dich c6 cling chung céc kf ning. 2. Phin tich Séng Elliott xc dinh huéng cia xu huéng chinh dya teen huéng cha céc séng diy. 3. Nguyén Ly Séng Elliott chi ra cho céc nha giao dich nhiing diém duge goi la “diém mé hinh khong c6 gid, ‘tri’, 6 dé chiing ta biét rang cach dém séng hién tai la sai va phi phan tich Ia. 4, Séng 2 e6 thé thos li niu hom 100% séng 1 5, Chu ky séng Elliott hoan chinh gém 9 séng. 6. Tit diém bat dau dén diém két thic, séng 2 va séng 4 mang lai che ea hi giao dich o6 d6 tin cy cao, 7. Phuong phdp giao dich ning dong di véi miu hinh song chéo la chi dgi diém phé vo dinh hodc day séng 4. 8, Néw ban tim kiém sf xe nhén cha hinh dong gid, thi hay dé cho thi truéng ra lénh cho ban triéc khi ban ra lénh cho thi trutng. 9, Huéng din thiét lap tin higu giao dich 4é giao dich cho s6ng dang zigzag i ch dicho dé kh gid ph vo dink hodc day cia séng B. 10. Tj 86 loi nbugn/rii ro 1 aly tangs 69 PHAN 2 NHUNG Vi DU ~ GIAO DICH _ THUC TIEN BU Se (ya ane a Rees see ern THEO SONG ZIGZAG VA SONG PHANG NEV aieiasy el NHUAN TU SONG DAY TIER THEO : (CHONG 2: HUONG DAN THIET LAP TIN Ht ‘GIAO DICH THEO SONG Z1G2A6 VA SONG PHANG NHAM TIM KIEM LOL NHUAN TU SONG BAY TIEP THEO 74 (0 BA PHAN THEN CHOT GUA MOT GIAO DICH THANH CONG LA: phan tich 46 thi gi, xty dng ké hoach giao dich, va quan tr giao dich, Do dé, _mbivi du trong chuiong nay déu dugetién hanh qua ba bud. vi DY GIAO DICH THEO SONG HIEU CHINH ZIGZAG 6 C6 PHIEU CATERPILLAR (MA CAT) Gi cé phiéu Caterpillar (ma CAT), chiing ta sé kiém tra m6i ‘thanh phén cla mét giao dich dé hiéu tai sao CAT o6 tin higu giao dich v6i dé tin cy cao, > 1. PHAN TICH BO THI GIA (Ching tart d8 dang dé nhan ra cc tin ign giao dich tren 46 thy gid cia CAT tt théng 4.2011 d&n thang 5.2011. Nhu ban ‘thy trong Hin 2.1, gid gidm tit mite 116,55 xuting 108,39 ‘vi binh thinh nim s6ng. Mau hinh séng nay 1 quan trong vi song diy xée dinh huiéng cia xu hudng Kin hem (song (1) hdc séng (A)). Do 46, et sut gidm nm s6ng miy déi véi CAT him ¥ sé cin mot dat gid khéc theo séng (C) hod -6ng (3) khi gi pha thing déy 108,39, ‘Dat héi phuc nhd sau d6 di vi c6 phiéu CAT dién ra theo ba séng ting ho gi thuyét niy. Hanh dng gié nguge xu hung chinh thuéng dign ra theo ba sing, vi thé toi Kj vong CAT con mét dot gidm gid Khéc. Hon na, ba sing ting cia CAT dén mite gid 112,47 tong ding v6 tf 18 hoi ‘phuc Fibonacci 50% so vii dot gdm tride 46, TY 1e 50% HON VIDU Giso Dick THY THEN smc h6i phyc ph6 bign trong cdc sing higu chinh. N6 cing gin v6i mite 112,84, f mit gid ma chigu dai song C sé bing (0,618 lin chiéu dai song A. 61.8% la tf Ie Fibonacci ph6 big sila song C va song A trong mau hinh song higu chinb, TIEU DIEM ‘Céu héi hic nay 1a ligu dot séng ting tit Cc séng day xe . Hot song Hing inh xu huéng 6 cp dy 108,39 Iém 11247 nén ge inh nhin G9 gang lon hom te 1a sing (B) hay séng (2). Tw quan diém giso theo dich ngin han, clu h8i nay Ib Khéng quan trong vi dit dan nhin theo cich no dint, snc tigu gid cha dot gldm tip theo Is dugiTIEU DIEM 58 Chait ig Awan eitiine CaM dng #4 ne gin hon nay cho thy; dd d6c cia sing C thuéng bao gdm ba la tip hon so v6i sing A. DG de thép hon S69 cita sing C cho thiy da ting gi momentum) i out gidm, 18 diy higu cho thay xu hung sgidm Kin hon dang tr Ii, D6 d6cthip hon SONG ZIGZAG 4 song C so vi song A trong séng vcr Zigzag loai séng higu chinh don gién gom ba séng A-B-C. dang xuat hign. Trong d6, cau tric ‘Bing céch dp dung phan tich sing Elliott s6ng con nhu sau: : CAT ti nhgn rani. ‘Séng A (5 s6ng), séng ho d6 th giteia CAT, t8inhin ramimsing Fee a song C (6 séng). bigw hign phé bign cho thay dang sing nay git va ba song ting cé méi quan hé véi nnhau theo t71¢ Fibonacci va me khing ox nm & ving 112,47-112,84 Cu tric song Eliott dé nghi kh ning cao sé c6 dot sut gidm isi day ci 108,39 ti mile gi hign tai, Vi thé, cfu hai hic nay la chiing ta Khai théc théng tin niy nhui thé nto. 75 © DAN THIET LAP TIN HIEU GIAO DICH THEO SONG Z1GZAG VA SONG PHANG NHAM TIM KIEM LGI NHUAN TO SONG BAY TEP THEO NHONG VI DY GiAo DICH THC THEN pein fw tt Spite susan ogni hinst If “4 seeps —- cs | ™ yr . * Ayo mee wr, Y 7 ae oe ae sare epee eS 4 Hinh 2.1 - D6 thi 15 phat cia Caterpillar Inc ‘BS thi ds in Lai vb su cho php cha Bloomberg. Bin quyén 2013 cia Bloomberg LP Bai quyén dt dul bdo i. > 2, XAY DUNG KE HOACH GIAO DICH ‘Trong hinh 2.2, 01 thy hign tin higu giao dich nay bing hap dng quyéa chon. Cu thé ti di mua mudi hop 46ng quyéa chon bin vio ngiy 10 thing 5 nm 2011 ta gd thyc hign 110 i mic pht 86 cent mai c6 phiu (Mot hop déng quytn chon c6 100 c6 phitu, nen chi phi cia mot hop ding guy clon 1a 0,86x100=86, mul hap déng quyén chon sé 1a 860 USD - Chi thick cia nguidi dich). Cie hap dng.

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