Traffic Study Report Adaba

TRAFIC STUDY REPORT ADABA ROAD AUTHORITY
1 Table of Contents
1. General..........................................................................................................................................2
2. Introduction...................................................................................................................................3
3. Traffic Surveys and Locations.......................................................................................................3
4. Traffic Composition......................................................................................................................5
4.1 Motorized traffic........................................................................................................................5
4.2 Non-Motorized (NMT)..............................................................................................................5
4.2.1 Procedures and Assumptions for Non Motorized Traffic Count............................................5
4.2.2 Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT).................................................................................6
4.3 Seasonal Conversion Factors.................................................................................................8
5 Origin-Destination Survey.............................................................................................................9
6 Traffic Growth Rate.......................................................................................................................9
6.1 Trends in GDP...........................................................................................................................9
7 Types of traffic............................................................................................................................11
7.1 Normal Traffic.....................................................................................................................11
Source: Consultant’s Calculations and Survey Results....................................................................11
7.2 Diverted Traffic...................................................................................................................12
7.3 Generated Traffic.................................................................................................................12
8 Baseline Traffic...........................................................................................................................14
9 Conclusion and recommendation of the findings.........................................................................16
Consultancy Services for the Detailed Engineering Design P a g e |1 SAMADOR Consulting Engineers
and Supervision of 2006 Adaba Ana URRAP Road project February, 2016
TRAFFIC AND TRAFFIC DEVELOPMENT
1. General
This report presents traffic survey and detailed analysis of for the Adaba Ana URRAP roads project.
The traffic survey reports briefly described based on the prevailing conditions of the road during the
study period.
This report presents a review of available information and field observations concerning the project
influence area and outlines the regional and Ana setting for the project. Field survey and
investigations undertaken (including traffic surveys) are discussed, along with data analysis and
conclusions drawn, providing the base for assessing requirements of development of the project road.
Future traffic projection is made and based on the design traffic; the estimated pavement structure is
revised.
The proposed project road is planned to be constructed in this fiscal year, 2009 E.C.
The data gathered from such study were compiled and analyzed together with the data obtained from
ERA Low Volume Road Manual so as to determine the design traffic (DT) and traffic over 10 years
design period.
The report has been organized in the following sequence:
Chapter 1: Introduction,
Chapter 2: Traffic Surveys and Locations,
Chapter 3: Traffic Composition,
Chapter 4: Origin-Destination Survey,
Chapter 5: Traffic Growth Rate,
Chapter 6: Types of traffic and its detailed analysis,
Chapter 7: Base line traffic and traffic forecast analysis and,
Chapter 8: Conclusion and Recommendations
The appendix part of the report contains

Appendix-1: Traffic count for motorized and non motorize vehicles
2. Introduction
The study has undertaken a traffic counts at selected locations along the project area’s road network.
The results will enable traffic volumes to be allocated along particular sections of the project road.
Traffic counts will enable a more precise estimate of benefits since vehicle incur different operating
costs according to size and type. The traffic counts will be used to estimate future traffic based on
forecast growth rates.
Growth rates have been derived from national GDP growth rates and implied elasticity’s of growth for
various vehicle types.
The detailed traffic study of the proposed road incorporates the estimation of the level of traffic
volume that need to be measured and forecasted over the expected design life of the road project. This
exercise involves activities such as traffic count and origin destination surveys; and the estimation of
traffic growth rates based on socio-economic condition of the country.
Future Traffic for the project road consists of the following components:
 Normal traffic,
 Diverted traffic, and
 Generated traffic
3. Traffic Surveys and Locations

Traffic count surveys were undertaken at the beginning of the road projects. Traffic counts had
duration of 12 hours. During the hours of darkness the traffic is minimal; thus the effect of the rest 12-
hr night traffic along the project is negligible on the traffic volumes (i.e., night factor =1).
For normal traffic, the 3-day 12-hr principal traffic counts were undertaken in both directions at the
outskirts of at the beginning of each road projects. As the roads are inaccessible for vehicles, counts of
vehicle are not observed in the traffic count. The detailed traffic count is attached in the annex.
Photos Depicting Examples of Existing transport system
Photo 3.A: Horses used as a means of Photo 3.B: Donkey used for means of transporting
transportation system at Bucha-Alaba Sire goods and horse used for transporting people.
4. Traffic Composition
4.1 Motorized traffic
Generally traffic composition varies along the road alignment. Most of the road sections are not
accessible to vehicles. Hence vehicles are not observed to travel along the selected road projects.
4.2 Non-Motorized (NMT)
Non-motorized traffic was observed to travel along the road project. For these project the supervision
consultant has considered non motorized transport (NMT) count assuming that with the construction
of the road, a good deal of traditional modes of transport and intermediate means of transport will
shift to the use of vehicles.
4.2.1 Procedures and Assumptions for Non Motorized Traffic Count
Volume and composition of motorized and non-motorized traffic currently using the route was
surveyed for 3 days at the beginning of each road project. The survey consists of pedestrians, pack
animals, Animal carts, Motorcycles and Bicycles.
 Routes inaccessible and /or lack of modern transport service were differentiated and counted.
 The Two days(*) are market days and one day is normal day, hence AADT calculated multiplying
the normal day by five and adding the market days and dividing with seven
 To quantify traffic for normal capacity design the concept of equivalent PCUs is used. From the
ERA Low Volume Manual table 4.1. the PCUs for different transport mode is as follow:
PCU
Pedestrian 0.15
Bicycle 0.2
Motor cycle 0.25
Bicycle with trailer 0.35
Motor cycle taxi (bajaj) 0.4
Motor cycle with trailer 0.45
Small animal - drawn cart 0.7
Bullock 2
Pack animal (average of pedestrian 0.425

small animal- drawn cart)
* All based on passenger car = 1
 Pack animal is assumed to take an average PCUs value for pedestrian and small animal-drawn
cart.
Table taken below shows the dates, locations, and PCUs for 12-hour classified traffic surveys results
of the project area which was undertaken in August, 2012.
4.2.2 Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT)
In order to determine the total traffic over the design life of the road, the first step is to estimate initial
traffic volumes. The estimate should be the (Annual) Average Daily Traffic (AADT) currently using
the route (or, more specifically, the AADT expected to use the route during the first year the road is
placed in service), classified into the five classes of vehicles described above.
The AADT is defined as the total annual traffic summed for both directions and divided by 365. It is
usually obtained by recording actual traffic volumes over a shorter period from which the AADT is
then estimated. It should be noted that for structural design purposes the traffic loading in one
direction is required and for this reason care is always required when interpreting AADT figures.
Traffic counts carried out over a short period as a basis for estimating the AADT can produce
estimates which are subject to large errors because traffic volumes can have large daily, weekly,
monthly and seasonal variations. Traffic volumes vary more from day-to-day than from week-to-week
over the year. Thus there are large errors associated with estimating annual AADTs from traffic
counts of only a few days duration, or excluding the weekend. For the same reason there is a rapid
decrease in the likely error as the duration of the counting period increases up to one week.
Table.1 -7 Classified Traffic Count Results for Project Road

Adaba Town-Sire
HAND
CARTS ,ANIMAL
BICYCLE PEDESTRIAN PACK ANIMALS DRAWN CARTS
Total Total in Total Total in Total Total in Grand
Date Count PCU Count PCU Total Count Total in PCU Count PCU Total
Friday* 31-01-16 0 0 1064 159.6 886 376.55 0 0 536.15
Saturday* 01-02-16 0 0 115 17.25 110 46.75 0 0 64
Monday* 03-02-16 0 0 172 25.8 142 60.35 0 0 86.15
TOTAL 0 202.65 483.65 0

AADT 0 39 96 0 135
Consultancy Services for the Detailed Engineering Design P a g e |7 SAMADOR Consulting Engineers and Supervision of 2006 Adaba
Ana URRAP Road project February, 2016
These results are needed to be adjusted by using seasonal conversion factors to convert them to
AADT values as discussed below.
4.3 Seasonal Conversion Factors
In order to estimate AADT, it is essential to develop Seasonal Conversion Factor (SCF) based on
Ethiopian Road Authority’s (ERA’s) regular data. It can be estimated as the ratio between the Annual
Average Daily Traffic (AADT) established based on ERA’s regular survey considering the average of
three seasons in a given year defined as cycles 1 to 3. Therefore, the SCF used in this analysis has
been established considering the average of ERA traffic data based on ERA historical seasonal traffic
count data along the roads under Shashemene district, Shashemene-Goba Road which is immediate
and the nearest road to the proposed road project where ERA traffic data is available. However from
the traffic count, one can observe that vehicle are not observed to travel along the selected road
projects (Annex). Hence there is no need to adjust the AADT using the SCF. The SCF for
Shahsemane-Goba road project is tabulated below.
Table.2 Seasonal Conversion Factor (SCF) for Shashemene-Goba Road Projects

Vehicle type Car S/Bus L/Bus S/Trucks M/Trucks H/Trucks
SCF 1.08 1.00 1.00 1.05 1.05 2.1
5 Origin-Destination Survey
Most of the road projects planned to be constructed are just to access the rural Gandas to the main
road or town. Hence, records were not observed on the Origin – Destination (O-D) interview formats.
6 Traffic Growth Rate

A general traffic forecasting approach is considered to be practical compared to a road-specific
projection, for a road with a strategic rather than specific function such as the project road. In
general, transport demand (and hence traffic) is a derived demand driven by growth in population,
the economy and personal incomes. Forecasts of these factors are therefore required to make accurate
traffic forecasts. Traffic growth can also be related to the growth in fuel consumption and vehicle
fleet; therefore trends are also developed for these parameters.
Moreover, estimates of income elasticity, relating traffic growth directly to forecast changes in
national income, are often applied in making forecasts; this approach will also be adopted for this
specific project.
6.1 Trends in GDP

The main income development of the country for the last decade or so is depicted in table below. The
table shows average annual rates of growth of income and income per head for the period from 2007-
2011. From the data obtained from World Bank Group, the country achieved high growth rate of
11.5% pa in 2007 and showed a reduced growth rate of 10.2%, 8.8%, 9.9% and 7.3% pa in 2008,
2009, 2010, and 2011 respectively.
It is to be noted that due to unavailability of time series data of GDP at regional level, national
economic data was used for calculation of the traffic growth as a proxy for the regional economy, as
the latter represents the entire economy.
Table-8: GDP
Year GDP (%)
2006/2007 11.7
2007/2008 10.8
2008/2009 8.8
2009/2010 9.9
2010/2011 7.3
Average rates 9.66
The Plan for Accelerated & Sustained Development to End Poverty (PASDEP) reiterates the
Government’s commitment to meeting the Millennium Development Goals (MDG), including the
reduction of income poverty by half by 2015 (from 44% in 1999/2000). Recent macroeconomic data
(of which high growth rates being recorded) also confirm that Ethiopia can reach the MDG targets at
the end of 2015.
Concerning future trends in GDP, long term (2010/11-2019/20) economic forecasts for Ethiopia
prepared by IMF/World Bank in 2002 assume a 6.3% p.a., GDP growth. MOFED on the other hand,
has set a medium term (PASDEP: 2004/05-2009/10) target rate of growth of at least 10 percent
although very favorable circumstances would be required for this to be sustainable into the longer
term which is near to the average GDP value for the consecutive five year given by World Bank
Group. Bearing in mind that GDP projections have to be made for at least 10 years period, a general
approach is to assume, that recent trend will be projected for into the future. Based on the above, the
medium or base forecast is therefore conservatively assumed to increase by 9.66 percent p.a. for the
coming ten years.
7 Types of traffic
Apart from the normal traffic, an increase in traffic flows is expected to arise along the project road in
response to the proposed change in the road condition. Upgrading of the project road also provide a
good access to Oromiya regional state. Besides, construction of the project road would result in
generated traffic following the likely socio – economic developments in the project area. Therefore,
both generated and diverted traffic are expected along the project road in addition to normal traffic
when the road is upgraded.
Consultancy Services for the Detailed Engineering Design P a g e | 10 SAMADOR Consulting Engineers
7.1 Normal Traffic
The normal traffic volume is computed by taking the classified traffic count results of motorized and
non motorized traffic and the seasonal adjustment factors in to consideration. Thus, the AADT for the
year 2011 is obtained by taking the average traffic count data from the counting stations.
The AADT for normal traffic are summarized and presented in the table below.
Table.15 Estimates of normal AADT along the project road
HAND CARTS, ANIMAL

BICYCLE PEDESTRIAN PACK ANIMALS
DRAWN CARTS
Adaba-
Sire AADT 0 39 96 0
Source: Consultant’s Calculations and Survey Results
7.2 Diverted Traffic
Construction of road projects creates an opportunity to considerable volume of diverted traffic. For
each road improvement option the traffic volume diverted will vary in relation to the perceived costs
of travel each new section presents to existing road users compared to the perceived costs of using
established routes.
To estimate extent of potential diverting traffic, O/D surveys should first be conducted. However,
most of the road projects planned to be constructed are just to access the rural Gandas to the main
road or town. Hence, records were not observed on the Origin – Destination (O-D) interview formats.
7.3 Generated Traffic
Generated traffic can be related to developmental benefits. It can be defined simply as the trips that
may be made which previously were not made. Generated traffic is thus an important item in traffic
estimation for most road improvements together with estimations of existing and diverted traffic. Any
road improvement will induce trips. The magnitude of the developmental benefits in the form of
generated traffic may well be greater than benefits to existing and diverting traffic. However it may
not always be so. The circumstances of each particular project will dictate whether and to what extent
traffic will be generated in response to any new transport facility that lowers user costs.
Besides the normal traffic growth on the Project road, after the improvement option, generated traffic
will also be observed mainly on account of reduction in the VOCs and travel time. This phenomenon
takes place, as demand for the transportation increases as its cost decreases, which yields savings to
the road users, also experienced in Ethiopia.
The generated traffic refers to the economic “law of demand”, which states that the consumption of
any goods and services increases as its price declines. So the generated traffic depends on the saving
in transportation cost and increase in, the transport demand, which is largely guided by the transport
market. That is, the evaluation of demand for transport due to change in price (the demand elasticity
w.r.t. changes in price), in turn, triggered by improved transport infrastructure.
After the construction of the road is completed it will be expected to facilitate transportation and
increased demand for transportation–passenger and freight.
Based on international studies, the elasticity values resulting generated traffic with respect to the total
cost of travel varies between –0.6 and –2.0. The TRRL Overseas Road Note 5: “A Guide to Road
Appraisal” states that for the developing countries, the price elasticity of demand for transport for
generated traffic varies between –0.6 and –2.0. This implies that the reduction in travel cost and
increase in traffic will be smaller than measurement on the road.
From price elasticity demanded practice in Ethiopia and their experience in similar kind of road
projects, the Consultants have adopted the elasticity value of –1.0 for estimating the generated traffic.
The construction of the road project would, thus, result in generated traffic volume of 50 % of
(normal) in the opening year of the road.
The estimated generated traffic volume is summarized and presented in the table below.
Table .17 Estimated Generated Traffic

HAND CARTS, ANIMAL

DRAWN CARTS
Adaba-
Sire AADT 0 39 96 0
AADTG 0 19.5 48 0
8 Baseline Traffic
The construction of the road will be completed and opened for traffic by the year 2013; the baseline
traffic is taken as the projected traffic volume of 2013. Thus, the baseline traffic volume/AADTb is
computed by considering a growth rate of 7.86 and 8.96 for passengers and freight vehicles
respectively and incorporates the normal, generated and diverted traffic volumes.
The baseline traffic AADTb is computed using the formula:
AADTb = AADTo (1+r) n
Where AADTb = Baseline AADT (AADT2013)
AADTo = Normal AADT (AADT2012)
r= growth rate (varies)
n=number of years
Table 18 Summary of Baseline Traffic for the Project Road
HAND CARTS, ANIMAL

DRAWN CARTS
Adaba-
Sire AADT 0 39 96 0
AADTG 0 19.5 48 0
AADTb 0 58.5 144 0
The traffic volume for each consecutive year over the design period is determined by applying
constant growth rate .The 10 years traffic forecast is tabulated in the following table.
Table 19 Summary of traffic forecast over 10 years design period
Adaba Town-Sore
HAND
Year BICYCLE PEDESTRIAN PACK ANIMALS CARTS ,ANIMAL Total
DRAWN CARTS
2016 0 39 96 0 135
2017 0 43 105 0 148
2018 0 47 115 0 162
2019 0 47 115 0 162
2020 0 51 127 0 178
2021 0 56 139 0 195
2022 0 62 152 0 214
2023 0 68 167 0 235
2024 0 74 183 0 257
2025 0 82 201 0 282
2026 0 89 220 0 310
2027 0 98 241 0 339
9 Conclusion and recommendation of the findings

The total traffic volume calculated at design life mid, 2021 is 195 AADT for Adaba-Sire. According
to ERA Low Volume Manual, the geometric standard of the road projects are DC-2. Due to the
budget constrain of the program and purpose of the road i.e. to access rural Gandas, it is sufficient to
the fix the geometric standard to be DC-2.
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TRAFIC STUDY REPORT ADABA ROAD AUTHORITY

TRAFFIC AND TRAFFIC DEVELOPMENT

The report has been organized in the following sequence:

The appendix part of the report contains

3. Traffic Surveys and Locations

Photos Depicting Examples of Existing transport system

4.2 Non-Motorized (NMT)

4.2.1 Procedures and Assumptions for Non Motorized Traffic Count

Pack animal (average of pedestrian 0.425

4.2.2 Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT)

Table.1 -7 Classified Traffic Count Results for Project Road

TOTAL 0 202.65 483.65 0

4.3 Seasonal Conversion Factors

Table.2 Seasonal Conversion Factor (SCF) for Shashemene-Goba Road Projects

SCF 1.08 1.00 1.00 1.05 1.05 2.1

6 Traffic Growth Rate

6.1 Trends in GDP

Year GDP (%)

7.1 Normal Traffic

Table.15 Estimates of normal AADT along the project road

HAND CARTS, ANIMAL

Source: Consultant’s Calculations and Survey Results

7.2 Diverted Traffic

7.3 Generated Traffic

Table .17 Estimated Generated Traffic

HAND CARTS, ANIMAL

The baseline traffic AADTb is computed using the formula:

AADTb = AADTo (1+r) n

Where AADTb = Baseline AADT (AADT2013)

AADTo = Normal AADT (AADT2012)

r= growth rate (varies)

Table 18 Summary of Baseline Traffic for the Project Road

HAND CARTS, ANIMAL

Table 19 Summary of traffic forecast over 10 years design period

9 Conclusion and recommendation of the findings

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