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Consumer sentiment is Consumer outlook was broadly steady for Q2 2016, even as the confidence
2
largely unchanged index (CI) showed a marginal decline to -6.4 percent from -5.7 percent for
for Q2 2016… Q1 2016. The current quarter consumer confidence, while remaining negative,
was the second3 highest reading since the nationwide survey started in
Q1 2007. This indicates that the pessimists continued to outnumber the
optimists, but the margin, while increasing slightly, remained narrow.
Respondents attributed their sustained outlook during the current quarter to
the following reasons: (a) increase in the number of employed family members,
(b) increasing family income due to higher salary and stronger business activity,
(c) lower household expenses as well as debt payments, and (d) improvements
in the peace and order situation. The other factors cited by respondents that
helped maintain their confidence for the current quarter were assistance from
government such as the Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program (4Ps), and the
coming change of administration as well as election of new government
officials. Their positive sentiments were however counterbalanced by the
adverse effects of El Niño on crop production which resulted in poor harvest.
The outlook of consumers in the Philippines mirrored the steady sentiment of
consumers in Austria, Belgium, Netherlands and Czech Republic but was in
1
The Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) is a quarterly survey of a random sample of about 5,000 households in the Philippines. Results of the CES
provide advance indication of consumer sentiments for the current and the next quarters and the year ahead as reflected in the overall CI, as well
as in selected economic indicators.
2
The CI is computed as the percentage of households that answered in the affirmative less the percentage of households that answered in the
negative with respect to their views on a given indicator. A positive CI indicates a favorable view, except for the inflation rate, the peso-borrowing
rate, unemployment and change in prices, where a positive CI indicates the opposite. The overall consumer CI measures the average direction of
change in three indicators - overall condition of the economy, household finances, and household income. (See Technical Notes for the definition of
terms.)
3
The highest CI of 5.7 percent was recorded in both Q2 2013 and Q1 2016 CES.
1
Consumer Expectations Survey Second Quarter 2016
… declines for the next For the next quarter (Q3 2016), consumer sentiment turned less optimistic as
quarter but rises for the CI declined to 5.6 percent (from 9.1 percent in the previous quarter’s
the year ahead. survey), but improved for the year ahead to 26.6 percent (from 25.4 percent for
Q1 2016). According to respondents, their less sanguine outlook for the next
quarter stemmed from expectations of lower harvests, slower business
activities during the rainy season and expectations of higher expenses for their
children’s education (i.e., tuition fees, school supplies, and student allowances).
For the year ahead, consumers attributed their more optimistic outlook to the
change in administration as well as the election of new government officials,
expected improvements in the peace and order situation, and availability of
more jobs (both local and abroad).
Consumer confidence Consumer confidence is measured across three component indicators, namely,
weakens on the economic the country’s economic condition, family financial situation and family income.
condition of the country For Q2 2016, consumer outlook on the country’s economic condition
but improves on family weakened. However, this was offset by the improved sentiment on family
finances and income. finances and income which registered all-time high CIs at -4.4 percent and
0.9 percent, respectively, since Q1 2007. Consumers cited additional income,
more working family members and brisker business as reasons for their
optimism.
4
https://www.conference-board.org/data/consumerconfidence.cfm, http://www.roymorgan.com/morganpoll/consumer-confidence,
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/, and http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/db_indicators/surveys/index_en.htm
5
Low-income group refers to households with monthly family income of less than P10,000; middle-income group, P10,000 – P29,999; and high-income
group, P30,000 and over.
2
Consumer Expectations Survey Second Quarter 2016
Consumer sentiment in AONCR Consumer sentiment in the NCR declined for the current quarter. The less
is broadly steady but buoyant outlook of consumers on the country’s economic condition pulled
weakens in NCR. down the broadly steady outlook on family financial situation and income
for the same period. For the succeeding quarters, consumer outlook
followed the national trend—less favorable for the next quarter but
improving for the year ahead.
Consumer confidence in areas outside NCR (AONCR) was broadly steady for
the current quarter but declined for the next quarter, similar to the national
trend. The broadly steady outlook of consumers for the current quarter is
due largely to the improved outlook of consumers on family finances and
income even as sentiment on economic condition of the country declined.
For the next quarter, the less sanguine outlook on family finances and
income outweighed the more optimistic view on the economic condition of
the country. The steady outlook of consumers on family finances and
income prevailed over the more optimistic outlook on the country’s
economic condition for the year ahead.
3
Consumer Expectations Survey Second Quarter 2016
The positive spending outlook The spending outlook index of households on basic goods and services held
on basic goods and services steady at 30.2 percent for Q3 2016. This indicates that respondents who
remains steady for Q3 2016. expect to spend more on goods and services outnumbered those who said
otherwise, but the number that said so remained nearly unchanged
compared to the previous quarter’s survey.
Buying condition for big-ticket Respondents considered the current quarter as a favorable time to buy big-
items remains steady for ticket items but the number that said so was broadly steady at 28.9 percent.
Q2 2016 … The outlook on buying conditions was almost unchanged for consumer
durables and motor vehicles, but weakened for real estate.
4
Consumer Expectations Survey Second Quarter 2016
…while buying intentions Buying intentions of respondents for the year ahead declined across the
decline for the next 12 months. three big-ticket items compared to the previous quarter’s survey results. By
area, buying intentions of respondents in NCR declined for consumer
durables, increased for motor vehicles and was broadly steady for real
estate while those in the AONCR mirrored the national trend.
Savings Behavior6
The percentage of households For Q2 2016, the percentage of households with savings slightly increased
with savings slightly increases to 33.2 percent (from 32.7 percent a quarter ago). Households with savings
for Q2 2016. increased among the low-income group but decreased for both the middle-
and high-income groups. According to respondents, they save money for
the following reasons: (a) emergencies, (b) retirement, (c) health and
hospitalization, (d) education, and (e) business capital and investment.
6
Beginning Q2 2013, questions on family savings were added to provide additional information on households’ financial assets and
their access to financial institutions.
7
Cooperatives are duly registered associations of at least fifteen (15) persons with a common bond of interest who voluntarily join
together to achieve a lawful common social and economic end. Associations are organizations of people with a common purpose
and having a formal structure. Paluwagan refers to an organization that pools the participants’ money, by means of daily, weekly,
or monthly collections to be collected by a leader. The participants will cast lots to determine the order by which each of the
members will receive the pooled money.
5
Consumer Expectations Survey Second Quarter 2016
Consumers expect inflation to Respondents anticipated inflation to slightly increase to 3.4 percent from
slightly increase, interest rates 3.3 percent a quarter ago. This means that consumers expected that the
to go up and the exchange rate rate of increase in commodity prices will be modest over the next
to appreciate in the 12 months and that inflation expectations are likely to remain well
year ahead. anchored to the inflation target. Respondents are also of the view that the
peso would appreciate against the US dollar over the next 12 months.
Meanwhile, more respondents (than those who said otherwise) expected
interest rates to increase but the number that said so declined, with the
interest rate index reaching its lowest level (at 21.2 percent since Q1 2007).
Similarly, the unemployment index was lower at 22.6 percent from
31.1 percent in the last quarter’s survey. Notably, the unemployment index
for Q2 2016 registered the second lowest reading since the nationwide
survey in Q1 2007, which could indicate improving labor conditions.
OFW households that utilize Of the 555 households included in the survey that received OFW
their remittances for remittances for Q2 2016, 97.1 percent used the remittances that they
savings and investment received to purchase food and other household needs. The proportion of
decrease for OFW households that said so as well as those that allotted part of their
Q2 2016. remittances for medical expenses (55.5 percent), purchase of consumer
durables (21.6 percent), and purchase of house (11 percent) remained
steady but decreased for education (68.3 percent), debt payments
(43.6 percent), savings (38.6 percent), investment (4.5 percent), purchase of
motor vehicles (7.2 percent) and other miscellaneous expenses
(2.3 percent). The decline in the percentage of households that allotted
remittances for savings could be due to their expected increase in
expenditures on basic goods and services.
6
Consumer Expectations Survey Second Quarter 2016
A total of 5,754 households The Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) started in Q3 2004 covering the
nationwide participated NCR only. Beginning Q1 2007, the BSP expanded the survey’s scope to cover
in the survey. the whole country.
The Q2 2016 CES was conducted during the period 4 – 16 April 2016. The
CES samples were drawn from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) 2003
and 2013 Master Sample List of Households, which is considered a
representative sample of households nationwide. The CES sample
households were generated using a stratified multi-stage probability
sampling scheme. It has a sample size of 5,961 households, of which
3,081 (51.7 percent) were from NCR and 2,880 (48.3 percent) from AONCR.
Of the sample size, 5,754 households responded to the survey, equivalent
to a response rate of 96.5 percent (from 97.7 percent in the last quarter’s
survey). The respondents consist of 2,987 households in NCR (with
96.9 percent response rate) and 2,767 households in AONCR (with
96.1 percent response rate). About 43.5 percent of the respondents were
from the low-income group, 41.4 percent from the middle-income group,
and 15.1 percent from the high-income group.
TECHNICAL NOTES
The overall consumer confidence index is computed as the average of the three indices, namely:
1. Economic Condition refers to the perception of the respondent regarding the general economic condition of the
country.
2. Family Financial Situation refers to the level of household income in cash as well as in kind, savings, outstanding
debts, investments and assets.
3. Family Income includes primary income and receipts from other sources received by all family members as
participants in any economic activity or as recipients of transfers, pensions, grants, and the like.
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5/26/2016 Consumer Expectations Survey
Philippines
Q1 2007 - Q2 2016
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2. Consumer outlook indices on the current economic and family condition: Current Quarter (Continued)
AONCR
Economic Condition -48.6 -40.5 -35.8 -55.6 -55.6 -72.6 -81.6 -70.9 -44.2 -55.5 -54.1 -62.9 -50.3 -52.7 -19.2 -6.0 -36.9 -41.6 -26.2 -24.7 -22.9 -31.7 -17.4 -8.1 -13.4 -5.5 -7.9 -38.3 -32.6 -29.1 -46.2 -37.1 -15.5 -32.5 -23.3 -13.9 -9.8 -15.0
Less than P10,000 -50.0 -43.2 -36.3 -57.7 -57.9 -71.1 -81.1 -70.9 -45.2 -55.0 -56.2 -63.7 -53.0 -51.1 -23.4 -9.8 -39.4 -44.0 -30.9 -27.5 -27.3 -34.1 -22.0 -9.1 -18.4 -10.6 -12.7 -43.0 -35.5 -33.1 -48.6 -38.9 -20.3 -37.3 -26.8 -17.1 -12.9 -17.2
P10,000-P29,999 -44.1 -33.0 -35.8 -52.5 -50.6 -75.6 -82.1 -72.0 -42.3 -56.1 -50.0 -62.8 -46.0 -56.1 -8.6 1.2 -30.8 -37.2 -20.8 -20.8 -15.2 -28.8 -9.2 -6.9 -6.2 -0.5 -0.7 -32.1 -30.9 -24.8 -44.2 -35.6 -8.9 -27.4 -18.7 -11.0 -4.3 -13.1
P30,000 and over -33.0 -23.3 -24.3 -39.4 -53.4 -76.3 -86.3 -65.7 -42.2 -59.2 -48.8 -54.1 -35.1 -53.7 -14.6 10.0 -35.7 -34.6 1.4 -11.2 -8.1 -15.6 1.8 -1.3 2.2 16.4 6.3 -17.4 -18.2 -15.8 -32.6 -27.2 -5.1 -17.4 -12.2 -0.8 -5.5 -7.9
Family Financial Situation -35.0 -25.7 -25.6 -28.4 -28.6 -41.0 -52.8 -36.4 -24.3 -32.5 -29.0 -29.9 -22.1 -24.2 -18.6 -16.9 -24.3 -22.9 -23.8 -25.4 -18.1 -20.2 -18.5 -17.7 -17.6 -10.9 -12.6 -20.3 -17.7 -18.1 -25.3 -20.6 -13.2 -16.1 -12.7 -12.2 -8.0 -5.8
Less than P10,000 -39.8 -31.5 -33.1 -38.7 -36.3 -49.4 -61.1 -46.0 -34.0 -42.3 -41.2 -39.7 -31.6 -34.0 -27.5 -27.4 -34.7 -33.0 -38.0 -36.9 -27.4 -30.8 -28.5 -28.1 -28.3 -21.7 -21.8 -33.1 -28.6 -33.9 -38.4 -33.4 -26.7 -30.5 -23.5 -26.1 -21.7 -21.1
P10,000-P29,999 -18.9 -9.8 -7.9 -9.4 -13.6 -27.0 -38.2 -20.7 -5.1 -15.5 -7.3 -15.2 -4.1 -9.5 -2.3 1.4 -5.8 -7.2 -1.0 -8.2 -4.4 -3.7 -2.2 -0.9 -1.2 1.4 0.2 0.3 -3.8 3.8 -4.9 -0.9 7.1 -0.5 2.6 2.6 9.4 9.8
P30,000 and over 1.6 11.7 9.1 7.6 -6.6 -1.7 -20.9 -0.9 4.0 4.1 18.1 12.6 19.1 8.7 25.5 33.4 15.5 19.2 30.5 26.0 24.9 32.6 27.2 22.5 13.0 30.1 17.2 18.1 13.3 13.9 9.5 16.5 11.7 28.3 19.0 34.9 30.0 33.7
Family Income -21.9 -12.7 -9.6 -16.2 -15.5 -18.7 -27.0 -17.1 -10.7 -14.5 -13.2 -15.2 -11.4 -9.6 -4.4 -1.9 -8.6 -7.5 -7.8 -13.1 -5.3 -6.9 -5.6 -4.8 -7.3 -3.7 -5.2 -6.9 -6.8 -4.7 -8.4 -7.6 -3.4 -6.2 -2.2 -1.5 -1.4 0.4
Less than P10,000 -27.5 -18.9 -15.3 -26.7 -23.9 -26.3 -35.0 -27.7 -19.8 -22.6 -23.3 -25.0 -19.7 -18.7 -11.2 -10.8 -17.4 -16.0 -17.7 -23.3 -14.8 -16.5 -14.8 -13.1 -17.9 -14.5 -14.7 -16.7 -14.4 -19.6 -18.8 -17.9 -13.0 -17.3 -10.9 -12.6 -10.8 -11.5
P10,000-P29,999 -2.1 3.9 2.8 2.5 0.7 -5.2 -13.7 0.7 7.6 -0.5 4.0 -0.3 3.8 6.6 8.5 13.7 8.2 5.5 8.5 2.1 10.5 10.6 8.3 7.5 9.0 10.1 7.6 6.8 2.9 16.3 7.2 8.5 10.8 5.6 11.0 11.6 10.0 13.3
P30,000 and over 11.6 27.2 26.4 28.0 8.6 12.7 8.4 18.3 12.6 15.5 30.4 25.8 26.8 9.0 26.9 40.6 20.2 28.2 28.9 32.4 30.2 26.7 43.5 31.4 22.9 33.2 27.2 32.8 14.4 24.2 22.3 21.7 15.7 27.8 20.1 31.4 25.9 28.5
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
3. Consumer outlook indices on economic and family condition: Next Quarter (Continued)
AONCR
Economic Condition -25.4 -17.5 -7.2 -26.2 -21.0 -47.5 -47.8 -27.0 -20.2 -24.9 -18.0 -27.4 -12.4 -6.1 25.0 18.5 -17.5 -15.3 -3.5 -2.0 -3.8 -8.8 1.0 5.8 3.2 4.3 4.1 -4.8 0.5 -5.6 -12.4 -10.4 -0.7 -8.6 -2.8 -0.4 6.3 7.8
Less than P10,000 -25.9 -20.4 -8.3 -28.0 -21.8 -47.1 -46.8 -26.4 -19.8 -26.0 -19.6 -27.7 -14.2 -8.4 20.8 14.9 -18.6 -17.3 -7.6 -4.7 -7.6 -9.7 -2.0 4.3 0.3 1.3 1.6 -6.4 -2.8 -7.2 -13.6 -10.8 -3.3 -10.4 -3.9 -3.4 3.2 5.4
P10,000-P29,999 -23.2 -9.0 -4.8 -23.4 -20.9 -48.5 -50.2 -27.3 -20.7 -21.3 -15.3 -29.0 -8.8 -1.7 35.0 24.1 -17.3 -11.1 3.9 1.7 3.1 -7.9 6.0 8.8 8.8 8.0 8.1 -3.8 3.8 -4.3 -11.0 -9.2 3.3 -6.0 -1.2 4.6 11.3 8.5
P30,000 and over -24.2 -6.8 -1.1 -14.5 -6.8 -47.8 -46.4 -31.8 -23.2 -28.1 -10.9 -17.1 -5.4 -1.6 34.5 40.3 -3.0 -11.5 9.2 12.4 7.6 -1.3 13.1 10.0 8.3 15.5 11.0 8.3 12.9 1.7 -8.0 -11.6 4.0 -5.2 0.0 3.1 11.9 19.3
Family Financial Situation -10.0 -8.8 4.9 -0.8 -4.2 -29.7 -24.7 -7.7 -3.3 -12.3 -0.9 -6.0 -4.9 -5.2 6.3 6.2 -5.0 -9.3 0.9 0.8 1.5 -3.3 4.8 3.4 7.7 0.2 4.4 3.3 7.8 0.2 1.4 2.2 4.8 -0.7 7.5 6.5 8.7 1.5
Less than P10,000 -14.7 -12.6 1.2 -8.8 -7.4 -34.7 -30.0 -13.1 -7.9 -17.7 -6.8 -10.2 -10.0 -11.8 2.4 1.9 -9.2 -14.2 -4.7 -5.1 -6.6 -7.7 -1.5 -1.6 2.7 -4.7 -0.7 -2.7 2.7 -5.3 -1.9 -1.2 0.3 -5.9 3.1 -0.2 3.4 -4.8
P10,000-P29,999 6.9 2.3 14.3 13.0 2.4 -22.2 -15.5 0.8 6.5 -3.2 7.7 -0.3 6.2 4.4 14.7 13.8 1.0 -1.9 9.4 10.9 14.6 4.4 14.6 12.3 16.2 4.6 11.3 12.6 16.3 8.2 4.6 8.1 11.3 6.7 15.3 12.9 13.9 8.6
P30,000 and over 14.1 8.8 12.4 36.6 2.2 -2.3 -3.6 13.3 6.4 8.1 32.6 14.5 9.4 17.7 19.1 26.1 18.8 10.9 24.2 22.6 33.4 13.4 36.5 18.1 19.5 22.9 22.1 22.8 15.9 10.5 17.4 9.8 14.0 8.9 15.2 31.7 27.3 15.4
Family Income 0.3 3.7 15.4 11.6 11.9 -6.3 -3.7 1.4 6.3 -2.8 7.8 3.5 1.9 5.3 13.7 11.6 5.2 2.7 7.7 10.5 9.4 4.7 11.6 9.3 11.5 6.6 8.8 8.6 11.0 6.2 7.4 9.4 8.9 4.9 10.8 9.7 12.2 6.1
Less than P10,000 -3.7 0.3 11.6 5.7 6.9 -9.7 -6.8 -1.5 4.0 -6.3 4.0 0.6 -0.7 0.2 11.2 9.3 3.0 -0.9 3.4 7.1 5.5 1.9 8.2 5.5 7.8 4.4 4.9 5.7 7.9 3.9 5.3 7.2 5.8 1.3 8.0 4.4 9.1 2.5
P10,000-P29,999 14.7 13.3 26.8 22.5 22.9 0.2 1.7 7.2 12.8 4.8 14.4 6.8 6.2 14.2 20.1 15.4 9.0 7.8 15.5 17.0 16.2 8.8 18.0 16.6 19.6 9.1 13.9 12.7 16.3 9.1 11.0 12.4 14.2 10.3 14.7 15.2 15.5 9.5
P30,000 and over 22.8 24.0 8.9 34.3 15.0 4.6 10.4 6.4 3.5 4.2 23.5 20.3 15.2 17.1 15.1 25.1 13.5 19.4 19.2 20.7 21.5 19.1 24.3 19.0 14.9 15.7 22.3 19.5 15.4 11.6 11.8 16.5 12.8 11.1 19.6 28.0 22.4 15.5
Food and other household needs 91.6 92.6 94.9 97.6 98.0 95.9 97.2 93.9 94.0 95.4 92.6 94.5 96.4 95.8 95.8 96.0 98.0 96.2 96.6 94.1 94.3 95.8 96.4 94.3 95.5 95.7 97.9 95.4 97.5 95.8 95.1 93.8 98.1 97.5 97.6 96.7 95.6 97.1
Education 2.8 50.6 56.8 60.4 63.2 67.1 67.0 62.2 67.3 72.3 70.4 62.5 60.9 63.2 72.5 74.7 69.0 68.7 63.0 68.8 64.0 67.2 73.8 65.1 65.7 65.7 64.5 69.3 65.5 64.2 65.9 69.1 63.4 67.7 70.3 69.1 69.5 68.6
Medical expenses 1.1 29.5 27.8 27.8 38.2 45.5 46.0 57.0 52.2 67.4 60.9 63.6 51.4 59.0 63.6 65.2 55.2 54.6 58.5 64.9 63.3 58.0 61.3 62.3 58.8 54.9 59.9 60.1 57.7 62.6 54.5 58.5 53.7 59.5 63.3 57.7 50.9 51.8
Debt payments - 19.9 25.6 33.0 32.4 30.5 42.8 50.4 51.4 58.2 53.0 55.3 45.5 48.5 50.0 48.0 44.0 43.1 46.4 52.4 43.2 45.4 48.4 39.6 35.9 45.9 42.9 39.9 44.5 47.5 43.5 42.3 42.1 39.8 49.3 47.1 45.5 41.4
Savings 10.7 16.5 23.9 21.2 17.6 32.5 29.8 32.2 35.9 37.9 35.2 36.4 33.6 31.4 32.2 41.8 32.5 34.0 30.6 36.5 33.7 38.7 24.4 26.4 31.8 33.5 29.4 28.4 32.7 35.5 27.9 27.2 23.9 36.2 28.3 26.8 34.5 30.4
Purchase of
Appliances/Consumer Durables 6.7 11.9 14.2 7.1 7.4 19.1 12.1 18.3 20.7 23.5 20.0 21.7 21.4 24.7 22.9 26.7 23.4 26.3 26.4 17.7 20.5 17.6 22.7 20.3 26.9 18.9 24.5 19.7 21.7 25.3 22.1 24.6 19.7 25.1 18.2 16.2 20.4 15.2
Purchase of House* 2.8 3.4 1.1 0.9 2.9 19.1 7.4 12.2 10.0 8.1 4.8 9.1 8.2 9.6 11.9 8.8 10.7 9.9 6.4 6.6 9.1 8.4 6.7 6.1 8.6 7.3 7.1 8.7 6.0 8.3 8.1 6.3 5.8 10.8 10.8 9.2 9.8 6.8
Investment 3.9 6.3 6.3 6.6 2.5 2.0 5.6 5.7 4.0 6.7 6.5 8.7 8.2 5.4 4.2 9.5 5.2 8.4 6.0 5.9 6.1 5.5 5.8 4.7 6.9 5.2 6.4 8.3 10.7 8.7 7.5 7.0 6.5 7.2 7.7 8.8 7.3 5.2
Purchase of Car / motor vehicle 2.8 2.8 2.3 1.4 0.5 4.1 3.7 5.2 4.4 5.6 4.3 5.5 6.4 9.2 8.5 7.3 4.0 9.9 7.2 7.3 6.1 3.8 11.1 7.5 11.8 9.0 7.8 8.3 8.9 8.7 8.4 5.1 4.9 11.8 5.9 5.9 11.3 7.8
Others 1.1 4.0 2.8 0.9 0.0 6.5 11.2 6.1 6.8 7.7 7.8 7.9 8.2 8.8 7.2 2.2 4.0 4.6 3.4 4.9 6.4 0.0 4.9 0.0 5.7 3.4 2.1 6.0 3.9 0.0 0.6 1.5 2.6 1.8 7.7 4.0 5.5 1.9
Number of 5239 5130 4876 4969 4962 4597 5271 5264 5290 5680 5054 5250 5306 5479 5577 5643 5920 5700 5512 5879 5852 5690 5431 5771 5494 5724 5656 5382 5762 5875 5948 6234 5705 5973 5754 5845 5673 5754
Respondents
Response Rate 96.1 97.7 95.7 97.7 97.6 95.0 96.3 96.6 96.4 96.1 95.1 95.5 96.5 96.0 96.6 96.7 97.1 96.8 97.4 97.5 97.9 97.6 96.9 97.5 96.9 97.3 98.1 97.6 98.2 97.5 97.4 97.6 98.1 97.1 97.6 97.1 97.7 96.5
NCR
Number of Sample 2879 2689 2558 2526 2522 2306 2990 2850 2724 2973 2717 2830 2999 3104 3101 3004 3064 3044 3001 2977 3012 2955 2991 3009 2751 3036 2771 2747 2910 2959 3031 3212 2851 2963 2866 2904 2887 3081
Households
Number of 2677 2584 2381 2446 2456 2171 2858 2732 2613 2806 2544 2685 2889 2948 2973 2898 2982 2942 2913 2906 2961 2901 2905 2954 2678 2966 2751 2723 2871 2898 2967 3143 2817 2912 2818 2838 2850 2987
Respondents
Response Rate 93.0 96.1 93.1 96.8 97.4 94.1 95.6 95.9 95.9 94.4 93.6 94.9 96.3 95.0 95.9 96.5 97.3 96.6 97.1 97.6 98.3 98.2 97.1 98.2 97.3 97.7 99.3 99.1 98.7 97.9 97.9 97.9 98.8 98.3 98.3 97.7 98.7 96.9
AONCR
Number of Sample 2574 2562 2535 2561 2562 2533 2482 2598 2763 2936 2598 2666 2497 2602 2673 2829 3032 2845 2657 3051 2966 2875 2613 2913 2919 2848 2992 2765 2960 3068 3075 3177 2967 3188 3028 3116 2918 2880
Households
Number of 2562 2546 2495 2523 2506 2426 2413 2532 2677 2874 2510 2565 2417 2531 2604 2745 2938 2758 2599 2973 2891 2789 2526 2817 2816 2758 2905 2659 2891 2977 2981 3091 2888 3061 2936 3007 2823 2767
Respondents
Response Rate 99.5 99.4 98.4 98.5 97.8 95.8 97.2 97.5 96.9 97.9 96.6 96.2 96.8 97.3 97.4 97.0 96.9 96.9 97.8 97.4 97.5 97.0 96.7 96.7 96.5 96.8 97.1 96.2 97.7 97.0 96.9 97.3 97.3 96.0 97.0 96.5 96.7 96.1
Note:
* From Q2-Q4 2008, purchase of house included rentals
A quarterly survey conducted by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas
Department of Economic Statististics Manila, Philippines
www.bsp.gov.ph
Page 8
Consumer Expectations Survey
P10,000-P29,999
Bank 74.1 63.5 65.5 65.1 64.9 65.2 64.3 69.7 70.4 71.0 71.8 69.2 70.3 67.9
Cooperatives 9.9 6.0 7.1 7.8 4.7 5.8 6.6 10.2 10.6 11.0 15.8 12.1 8.6 11.4
Paluwagan 2.8 1.9 2.7 1.6 2.5 1.7 1.4 5.2 5.7 3.0 8.1 7.7 6.1 5.1
House* 37.4 24.1 22.0 22.9 24.6 23.5 24.9 31.6 37.4 39.9 43.2 39.6 44.1 46.2
Credit/Loans and other associations 3.9 2.7 2.2 2.3 3.0 2.1 2.5 6.3 7.7 7.5 8.0 12.6 8.8 11.4
Others 0.8 1.9 0.5 0.3 0.3 1.7 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 1.4 1.2 2.0 0.3
Percentage of households who could set aside savings in the current quarter 31.6 31.9 32.4 34.6 38.3 35.7 34.9 35.6 40.9 42.4 36.2 41.5 38.9 39.3
Less than P10,000 23.2 22.9 22.7 24.6 28.3 24.2 25.7 25.8 31.8 30.6 26.3 30.3 27.2 27.7
P10,000-P29,999 40.6 40.1 40.2 44.4 46.9 45.1 43.0 44.1 48.6 51.3 45.1 51.5 47.8 48.2
P30,000 and over 56.3 63.4 68.9 69.1 65.8 67.2 64.7 70.4 66.0 74.3 68.2 72.7 75.7 67.5
*kept at home
P10,000-P29,999
Less than 5% 32.1 25.2 26.7 26.5 27.4 27.7 33.7 25.5 29.3 29.9 36.1 30.3 31.9 30.4
5% to 9% 34.0 34.2 35.5 38.0 32.8 36.5 33.7 36.3 35.6 38.2 33.9 33.3 32.3 35.6
10% to 14% 20.3 25.0 22.7 22.4 22.7 21.0 19.8 22.7 22.5 19.7 19.9 21.9 22.2 21.1
15% to 19% 3.4 4.8 4.7 4.2 5.9 6.1 4.9 5.4 5.2 5.6 4.0 4.6 4.8 4.7
20% to 24% 5.3 6.3 4.7 5.1 6.1 5.2 4.8 4.9 4.0 4.0 3.1 5.7 4.2 4.9
25% and over 4.9 4.5 5.6 3.8 5.1 3.6 3.0 5.2 3.5 2.7 3.0 4.1 4.6 3.3
P10,000-P29,999
Bank 72.5 70.2 68.7 66.0 67.8 67.6 66.4 74.2 77.7 75.9 78.2 72.8 73.3 71.3
Cooperatives 10.3 5.3 4.9 5.6 3.3 3.9 4.0 7.5 8.7 8.6 13.7 8.4 8.0 10.8
Paluwagan 3.3 2.3 3.1 2.2 2.0 2.3 1.9 6.1 7.7 4.4 10.8 9.2 7.8 6.0
House* 33.3 18.4 20.9 23.1 25.6 25.4 26.0 30.4 36.0 39.5 43.5 40.8 44.7 48.0
Credit/Loans and other associations 3.5 1.5 1.5 2.7 0.9 1.0 1.2 5.9 5.2 7.5 9.0 13.8 9.4 10.8
Others 0.5 2.3 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.2 1.4 1.3 2.9 0.0
Percentage of households who could set aside savings in the current quarter 35.8 32.0 32.6 45.8 40.6 42.1 46.5 41.1 44.5 43.5 43.8 46.0 45.2 42.4
Less than P10,000 18.4 18.2 17.4 24.8 18.1 21.3 24.1 21.9 22.6 22.0 26.2 28.8 29.3 22.1
P10,000-P29,999 36.5 34.7 30.9 45.4 39.2 40.9 44.8 41.8 43.3 39.3 43.7 46.2 43.9 42.7
P30,000 and over 64.1 56.7 65.1 75.1 72.7 73.2 74.2 69.1 77.4 71.3 73.0 72.8 74.5 68.6
*kept at home
P10,000-P29,999
Less than 5% 35.7 23.9 24.0 26.7 28.1 26.9 29.5 26.4 30.3 28.9 34.7 32.6 37.3 32.5
5% to 9% 36.6 33.6 37.0 42.0 34.5 36.7 36.4 36.3 37.0 42.7 34.7 31.3 33.0 37.3
10% to 14% 20.2 26.3 25.6 20.3 22.8 21.0 20.5 24.1 20.4 19.4 21.8 22.4 21.5 20.0
15% to 19% 2.7 6.6 4.1 3.1 6.6 8.4 5.7 6.1 6.2 5.0 4.6 5.8 3.5 3.4
20% to 24% 3.0 6.8 4.9 4.2 4.7 5.6 5.7 3.6 2.9 2.2 1.9 4.4 2.3 4.6
25% and over 1.8 2.8 4.4 3.7 3.2 1.4 2.3 3.6 3.1 1.8 2.3 3.6 2.5 2.3
P10,000-P29,999
Bank 76.9 54.1 61.5 63.7 60.8 62.0 61.2 61.9 62.5 65.7 63.0 64.3 65.1 62.5
Cooperatives 9.4 7.0 9.8 11.3 6.6 8.3 10.3 14.9 12.8 13.4 18.6 17.1 9.6 12.3
Paluwagan 2.1 1.2 2.3 0.7 3.3 1.1 0.7 3.8 3.5 1.5 4.3 5.7 3.1 3.6
House* 44.4 32.0 23.4 22.5 23.2 21.1 23.4 33.6 38.9 40.3 42.9 38.0 42.9 43.1
Credit/Loans and other associations 4.7 4.5 3.0 1.8 6.0 3.5 4.5 6.9 10.3 7.5 6.5 10.9 7.7 12.3
Others 1.3 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 0.0 0.7 0.5 0.5 1.6 1.1 0.6 0.8
Percentage of households who could set aside savings in the current quarter 30.9 31.9 32.4 32.7 37.9 34.7 33.0 34.7 40.4 42.3 35.0 40.8 37.9 38.9
Less than P10,000 23.6 23.3 23.2 24.6 29.1 24.4 25.8 26.1 32.6 31.1 26.3 30.4 27.1 28.1
P10,000-P29,999 41.8 41.5 42.6 44.2 49.0 46.2 42.6 44.7 49.9 54.5 45.5 52.9 48.9 49.7
P30,000 and over 53.4 65.7 70.4 65.4 63.0 64.7 59.4 71.0 61.6 75.7 66.2 72.6 76.0 67.1
*kept at home