220 oPERATIONS RESEARCH

221 LOADING AND

Theline of balance can be constructed analytically or
SCHEDULING TECHNIQUES
graphically. LOB
number of items which should have been completed at each operation The IL dramatic
revolutionin time of completion of
universally used by most of the projects the use of CPM and
by

week atotalshoWs he loh

wasa
Since acumulative completion of 50items is required forthe 5th There CPM,and PERT are companies both in advanced and
items must have completed operation 11 by this date. Todaycountries
pssadvanced
Operations 9 and 10 have a lead items of two week no, 5
delivery for week no. 5plus two days at 55 units (assuming 5 workingFrom
lead time operation 1 is 10 days i.e., at week no. 5 sufficient
the
days toper objweek)ecti.ve
number oA PERT.

PERTand
CPM2

whatPERT(ProgrammeEvaluation and
is Review Technique) and CPM (Critical Path Method) are
requirements for week no. 5 plus 10 days i.e., 77 units should items
have been satisfy theThe halotngs he scheduling
techniques which are used to plan, schedule and control a project consisting of
activities. These techniques provide a frame which defines the jobs to be

80
completed. deliveny the ofinter-related
integratesthemnin a
number

done,
theplan.
logical sequence and provides a system of control over the progress of

CPM andPERT
Dbiectivesof
70
general, the network
analysis and allied techniques have the following objectives :
Line of Balarnce In
nits schedule and control the project consisting of number of interrelated
60 () To plan,
activities.
of integrate the tasks in a logical sequence.
no. () To define and how the activities
These techniques show the precedence relationship i.e., they show
3 50
Cumulative
are dependent.
can know which operation should
(in) With the help of these techniques the management
40

operation.
be done after completing a particular most critical activities. It tells the management
(p) To focus management attention on the
30
the time schedules should be strictly
at what moment and for which activities affected and where it may be, delayed
20 followed so that the future project will not be
date of completion of the project.
and upto what extent without affecting the last scheduling timing.
as related to the
10
(vi) To know the progress of the work achieve a given goal within overall time
resources to
(vi) To plan the best possible use of
and cost limitations.
capital
A
determining manpower, material and
10 (vii) It provides the basis for
Operation No. requirements. and
designing, planning, co-ordinating, incontrolling
Fig. 5.10. Progress chart. (i2) Network analysis helps in accomplish the project economically the minimum
decision-making in order to
5. Analysis of available time, with the limited resources.
backwards, beginningprogress. For
with the last comparing the
(11). required progress it is again Convenient to work
requisite number of completed itemsoperation From Fig. 5.10
have been delivered to (progress chart) it is clear that the
Characteristics of CPM/PERT Project
which is reflected by the actual should have the following
CPM or PERT technique
5.6
performance line on the objectcustomer
chart.
(operation 10 =0, a project to be analysed by
characteristics :
CPM AND PERT clearly
technique should consist of
The inherent 1. The project to be planned by network activities.
called
management to findlimitations and
inadequacies of the encouraged the recognizable jobs or operations, usually must have definite commencement and
out a more efficient and effective Gantt Chart technique, or activities
controlling of project scheduling and hese jobs, operations is called an event.
an activity or operation performed
and other consisting of several method
activities. resulted in ofa planning cOmpletion. The start or end of in atechnological
techniques based on network analysis. This
development of PERT, CPM
3. The events must Occur in a definite
pattern and must be
sequence.
 AND SGHtDULING tECHNIQUES
5.7 TERMS RELATED WITH CPM ()DummyActivittes, When two activities start at the same instant of tine like Aad tlhe
The CPM and AND PERT arrowS and this is known as dummy activity
joined by dotted
PERT techniques have
when the following terms and are
their their own language which can be head
events

Event representation is known.

An event is a
Event is also known specific instant of time which
understo d
within the circle. Unlikeas aanjunction. It is representedindicates the
beginning
by a circle and the or end of
B
activity, an event consumes
neither time norevent numbertheis
6
Activity resources acwrtiviittye.n Fig. 5.12. Dummy activity.
Every project consists of
operations or tasks which are number of job network to show that the activity Ccannot be started
activity is any time or resourcecalled activities. An Tail event activityis includedin the
The dummy .The dummy activities however complete the logical concept,
the project which has
definable consuming
start and
part of (4) Head event and Bare
untilactivities A
completed.
A dummy activity is thus a connecting link for
control
may be a process such as moulding, finish. It Start
A or resources,
bt do not consume any timeuniqueness activity.
cutting etc,; a material of
procurement cycle. handling or finishing,
material Finish purpose or for maintaining
Arrow Diagram
An activity is Fig. 5.I I. Activity. Network Diagram or inter-relationshíp and
"Tailrepresented of a project plan showing the are to be performed
is also known as by an arrow in the representation
given a name like A,event, and ends in network diagram. It begins in start It is a pictorial activities in a sequence ; in which they
B,C etc. which iscompletion event or 'Head Event.An activityevent which interdependencies between the various
shows a simple network consisting of 5
events and its activities to
accomplish the activity is marked above themarked below the arrow and the estimatedis normally
arrow. time to to complete the project. Fig, 5.13 A to E. Event 1 is the start of the project and event 5 is the
be performed are designated as
Following example clarifies the difference completion of the project.
Start machine installation between an event and activity :
-An event
Machine installation
-An activity
Completion of machine installation -An event
Classification of Activities
E
Activities are classified as :
(a) Critical activities
Fig. 5.13. Network diagram
(b) Non-critical activities event 2 is reached orin
Ccannot start until Asshown
() Dummy activities. The logic of the network is that activities BandBand Ccan be done concurrently. shown by
other words, until activity Ais completed. Activities events 3 and 4and hence it
is
Band C
(a) Critical Actieities, Ina network in figure the activity Dis a dummy activity connecting both actívities
more than their estimated time, the projectdiagram critical activities are those which if consumed unless
Ecannot start
will be delayed. More attention should be paid dotted line. This activity denotes that activity
critical activities, The expeeted completion dates cannot be met even if one of the critical to the
ativities are completed. dummy
is delavex.
A critical activity is markedeither by a thick arrow or a double line
arrow to distinguish it
5.8 RULES FOR NETWORK cONSTRUCTION activity takes o
the
tine whihthe
trn non eritial activities
1. The arrow does not iniate the
length of the work or ie. t
shows the
() Ne-eitical Activities Such ativities have a povisn f fkat or slack so that en f esoures which the atiity cosun
the diretion f perrmed
thev sumeasvindtime over and abve the estimated time, thepntwill not edelavet 2 The direcion f the amow indicates are ko be
the actities
segenein whàck
dependenies and the
 223 LOAD0NG AND SCHEDUUNG TECHNIQUES
224 OPERATIONS RESEARCH
Slack means a margin of extra time over and above its duration
3. No activity can be shown twice in the network unless it Float or consume without delaying the date of completion of theproject
Slack.
Normally in such cases it will bear a different activity occurs twice in the
or
Float
l activity
non-critical
can
completion Time necessary to
4. Notwo events will be
directly connected by more thanidentification
one activity a
which
FloatorSlack
Time available for
of the activity complete the sane.
5. An event cannot occur until all
activities leading to ít are
6. No activity can begin until its completed float with CPM but in general practice they may be used
immediate preceding event has occurredand with PERT and
- EFT).
(LST - EST) or (LFT
used
Slack is
Pre-operations. Pre-operations are the nterchangeablyFloat
Machine
operations which precede the operation under foundation
Consideration e,g., machine installation can only Marhine CriticalPath
networkin which Eariest Finísh Time
and Latest Firish Time are equal is
be done after machine
foundation is completed. istalarn alongthe e of activities whích deádes the total project uration tis
In this case, machine foundation
2 Apath path It is that sequence time. .Critical path is formed by critical activities and has
is the ritical maximum moritor.
pre-operation of machine installation. nownas Consumes determine, shorten and
Fig. 5.14 path and which the management is most aniousto
the longest path time, then the duration of the activities ying in he
The arrOW Connecting these two Itisthe completed in lesser double ortáck arrow ne to
zero float
stows the relation between thern and irdes project has to be
shortened. The critical path is represernted by
indicates f the to be
that the operation on the left end of an Steelfatricaion ciicalI path have
should be completed before the beginnángarrow
of the
distinguish it dearly.
operation on the rrght end of arrow. Solved Examples
Sonetires, an operation has more than
oe preoperatin For exanple, roofing f a
Roofng Example 1 Post-OPRe as givenbelorr:
workshop shed can only be started when Superstrture
for the project in whích Pre-OPRand
Superstracture and the steel fabrication is 2 Drawthe network diagram Post-operation
compleed. Thus fabrication Pre-operation
supesstructure are the preperations of the Operation
rofing as shwn in Fig 5.15. Fig 5.15 None
D
None
Post-uperations. Postpetins are the opertis which sucCeed the operation undee B
E
sideatin. Sn the prevos erape, maáre irssallatin is the post-operatin f the madáne
fysrdatin. E
Cmurert Opations. Tee are tte ertssvhich can be started simujtaneusly lat None
tre e tie C,D
E
Fatit Sat Time (ST)#is te earit possibe t[rne at whúch an activity can start, ard is
Fig 5.16.
as shown in
Solution. The CPM network diagram is
Eartit Finish Time (EFT), I is te eartit psbie tie at wthich an ativity can finisth.
Dumy
EFT EST +duratiumn f that ativity.
tet hartTime (15T, t is b latpite tirne by which an ativity can tart withat E

15T LT dusatum Athat ativity.

Lotst inisk Time (LFT), St is tie latet tim by whuh the xtivity must be amuted so

Fig 5.16
Example 2
Example3
netuorkdiagramfor
the project in ohich the pre-operations and post-operations are as
Draw a network diagram for the project in
which pre-operations, Dravthe
S.No. Activities
post-operations are as shown hal Pre-operation Post-operation
Pre-operations Operations
1

2.
(1-2) Post-operations
(2-5)
None D, F
G
(1-4) None
3. (4-6) B
None
E, H
(1-3)
4. (3-6) C G
(2-4) (1-2)
5.
(2-5)
(4-6) D G
(1-2) (5-6) (5 -7) E
6 None
(3 -6) (1-3)
7. (6-7) F None
(4-6) (1-4),(2 - 4) (1-3),(1-2) A, B, C, D, E
8 (6-7) G None
(5-6) (2-5),(1-2)
9. (6-7) H
(5-7)
(2-5),(1-2) 5.18.
10.
(6-7) diagram is as shown in Fig.
(6-7) (3 -6),(4-6),(5 -6) The CPM network
(5-6),(4-6), (3 -6)
Solution. The network diagram is as follows : A
D

Fig. 5.18. Network Diagram.

timing are
Example4 activities andtheir
area, the various
To start afactory in abuilding Available inindustrial
shown in the following table : Time tn ays
Particulars
Fig. 5.17 Activity 10

A
Machine foundation 15
B Electric fitting 20
(] Note. The pre-operations for octivity (4 -6) are (|-4), (0-2), (2 -4), Hou
Repair of floor
(1-3) is also given as pre-operations for the activity(4 -6), therefore, activity (A Installation of machine
12
cannot be started until the octivity (l-3) is also completed in addition D 15
immediate preceding activities. It means activity (3-4) is to be shown asa dummy Procurement of workshop
05
(-4) octivity (|-3) me
octivity, and in addition to activities (2-4) ond Building white wash
(4-6) can be started. F 02
completed before the activity
Clean up
228 oOPERATIONS RESEARCH LOADING AND SCHEDULING TECHNIQUES

calculatedinthe similar manner as EST but by proceeding backward from the

LFTis event.
15|15 2525 37 37 5757 2.
event to the first
15 last
2
10

A
20 59|59 LFT for the
activities Cand F=Total project duration - duration of activity
G= 59-2= 57
G 7
activity
activity D= LFT of activity C- duration of
B 15 LFT for the C=57-20 37
of activity
LFT of activity D-duration
5 IET for the activity A= D=37-12= 25
activity
3057 of activity F - duration of
LET for the activity B= LFT R=57-5= 52
Fig. 5.19. Network diagram. be found by following two
paths :
Draw the network and calculate EST, LST, LFT for the activity E can l-2-3-4-5-6-7= LFT of activityA - durationof
path
find total project duration. EFT, LFT and floats. Mark the critical LFT for the activity E by a
path and activity A=25-10=15. activity B- duration of activity
path 1-2-4-6= LFT of
Activity Duration EST LST EFT LET LFT for the activity E by a
2 Total float Remarks B=52-15 = 37. complete the project within the
(15) is selected, so as to
3 4 5
1-2(E) 15
6 7 Naturally, the smnaller value
15 shortest possible duration. example,
15
of that activity. For
2-3(4) 10 15 15 25
Critical
calculated by the relation LST = LFT - duration
2-4 (B)
25
Critical 3. LST is =42
15 15 37 LST of activity B = 57-15relation that activity. For example,
3-5(D) 12 25
30 52 22 Non-critical calculated by the EFT =EST + duration of
25 37 4. EFT is
37 57 EFT. For
5-6(C) 20 Critical
EFT for activity C=37+ 20= (LST - EST) or LFT -
the relation. Float=
37 37 57 57 by
Critical is calculated
6-7(G) 2 5. Total float or 52-30 =22
for activity, B =37-15
57 57 59
4-6(F) 30
59
Critical example, total float
52 35 57 22 Non-critical
Calculations : BExample 5
given below :
1. EST is calculated by unit consists of 6 activities as
last event.
proceeding in the forward direction from the first event to the A small scale industrial Pre-operation
Time in days
EST is calculated by starting from event - 1 i.e., Activity
(EST). activity E and giving it a time zero None
5
Now EST of activity A = EST of activity E + A

EST of activity B = EST of activity A + duration of activity E=0+15=15

B
EST of activity C = EST of activity D+
duration of activity A =15+ 10 = 25 B

duration of
EST of activity F = EST of activity B+ duration of activity =25+ 12 =37
D C A
activity B=15+ 15= 30
EST of activity G can be found by following two paths i.e., D
D
1-2-4-6 1-2-3-4-5-6 and
E C,E
The path 1-2-3-4-5-6 gives EST of G= EST of activity C+
C=37+ 20= 57 duration
of activity floats, mark the
The path 1-2-4-6gives EST of G= EST of activity F+ duration of EST,LST, EFT, LFTand
activity diagram and calculate
F =30 +5=35. Solution, Draw the network duration.
project
Naturally, the bigger value (57) is selected because the activity G cannot be started
unless both the activities C and F are conmpleted.
critical path and find total
 11|11 Example6
CalculateESTandILET, total float and project duration for the neturk gien in Fiz 521 belsne, also
and show the critical path on the neturk.
project duration
calculatethetotal
C 16|16
4
20|20 EST LFT
3
1919|
A 4

913 1313)
14
Fig. 5.20. Network
diagran.
Activity Duration EST LST EFT
14 17
LFT
1 2 Total Float Fig. 5.21. Network diagram.
3 4 5 6 Remarks
1-2(4) 5
5
8
Solution. The EST and LFT are as
shown in Fig. 5.21.
5
2-3 (B) 5 5
0
Critical EST LST EFT LET Total float Remarks
11 11 Activity Duration (days)
3-5(C) 5 11 11 16 16
Critical
1 2 3 5 6 7
Crátical
2-4 (D) 4 5 9 Critical 3
3 3
9 13 1-2 Non-critical
4 13 9
4,5(E) 3 9 13 12
Non- Critical
1-3 4
9 4
None-critical
16 4 17 3
5-(F) 4 16 16
Non-Critical 1-4 14 3 14
Ciical
20 20 0 13
Crítical 3 13
2-3 10 3 Non-critical
The critical path is 11
activities on the critical path1-2-3-5-6
as shown in the 8 19
EST for the succeeding activity =network
14 Non-critical
diagram. It is seen that for 2-6 5 3
18 1
total project duration is 20 days. LFT fo: the pruceeding activity. The 3-5 4 13 14 17
Critical
19
13 13 19 Non-critical
Steps in CPM : 3-6 6 3
15 18 Non-critial
4-5 1 14 17
1
1. Break the project intovarious activities. 18
18 19
5-6 17
2. Arrange all the activities in a logical
sequence considering the pre-operations, path is 1-2-3-6
post-operations and concurrent operations. Total project duration = 19 days. Critical
3. Construct the arrow diagram. Example 7
logic:
4. Number all the events and activities. Draw the network diagram for the following
5. Mark the activity times on the arrow diagram.
() A is the first operation on the project.
and both must
folloo A
6. Calculate EST, LST, EFT, LFT for each activity. ) Band Ccan be done ConcurTently
7. Tabulate various times and mark EST and LFT. (tin) Bmust precede A Completed.
8. Calculate the float for each activity. Care
(iv) Ecannot begin untl both Band andE
D
9. Identify the critical activities and mark the critical path on the arrOw diagram. (v) F is dependent on the completion of
project.
10. Calculate the total project duratíon. (vi) Fis the last operation on the
 TECHNIQUES
Solution.
Fig. 5.24 shows the
required network for the given problem.
Solution.
D
A 36 69 1111
2 Dummy 3
6

2|2
Fig. 5.22 1515|
Example 8 66
Draw the network diagram from the following :
Activity Bfollows A ;Cand Dfollow B ;Efollows Donly ; F and G
H follows F both follozo c
follows Gand E 16 810
J follows H
K Fig. 5.24
follows
follows K,J
EST LST EFT LET Total float Remarks
Solution. Activity Duration
6 7 8
2
4
1 3
3 6
10 11 1-2 3
0 0 2 2 0 Critical
1-4 2
1 6
1 5
1-7 3
B 6 6 9
2-3 3
Dummy 8 11 3
2 6 9
3-6 0 Critical
6 6
D 4-5 4 2 2
10 2
4 8
4-8 6 2 Critical
11 11
5-6 5 6 6
0 Critical
15 15
6-9 4 11 11
5
Fig. 5.23 7-8 4 1 6
10
2
Example 9 3 15
8-9 5 8 10
A project schedule has the following
characteristics : Total project duration =15
Activity Duration Activity
1-2 3
Duration Critical path :1-4-5 -6-9. (PERT)
4-8 6 REVIEW TECHNIQUE
1-4
1-7
2
5-6 5
5.9 PROGRAMME EVALUATION AND activities, functions and
complexset of the
and controlof project can be completed within
1
2-3 3
6-9 4 PERT finds applications in planning
critical activities the attthe planning stage
3-6
7-8 4
relationships. By controlling the
identifying critical activities right proper control
scheduled time limit. PERT givessa waypotentially troublesome areas and exercise
2 of
a 8-9 5
4-5 4 these "
8o that scheduled time.
Construct a network
managerment is aware of
Over them, so as to complete the project
within the
and find critical path, total
duration of the project and various time estinates.
 ACTIVITY TIME
AC
PERT, actually developed as a research and development ESTIMATION OF
timings could not be estimated with enough certainty. It can be planning tool accurately
that operation time cannot be estimateduncertainties
project cannot be easily defined in terms of time or resources required. at those where
employed based on the assumption
5.10
these
places awhctievriety a uncertainties involved in working. To take
PERT is data arnd
As such, PERT is more useful and powerful tool in planning thelack of past estimates for each activity.
the causeof PERT uses three time
projects and has several distinguished characteristics: research
and account, the shortest time in which an
activity can be completed
1. It helps the management to handle the uncertainties involved| in development into
1.
assumingthatt
everything goes
It is
Optimistic time (t,). exceptionally well. It has low probability of occurrence.
the most likely time required to completetimethe activity taking
no standard time, data are available.
2. It gives management the ability to plan the best possible
use of
programmes wher. 2. Most
time (t,,). It is
likelyfavourable and unfavourable elements. This estimate
onsiderationall
of lies between the
given goal within overall time and cost limitations. resources to 2 pessimistictime. activity will take to complete if everything
3. It provides the basis for determining achievea into
optimisticand (t ). It is the time which an conditions). Similar to optimistictime it has
4. Because of the uncertainty of manpower, material and capital requiren
time
. Pessimistic expectation (ie, under adverse
activity timings PERT acquires the shane turnssoutto
be against
probabilistic model. It uses linear programming and of
occurrence.
of an activity should not
vary
probability concents
planning and controlling activities. Probability concepts help low probability
practicability point of view, these time estimates would be the range of the
in estimating activi Erom the wider
timing and the maximisation of the predetermined objective is achieved greater the uncertainty, the
linear programming throuch t much from each other, however,
estimated completion times. curve would
estimates is drawn, the
PERT is mainly concerned with events and it is thus distribution of these times
event-oriented system. If the probability distributions.
PERT Applications approximately follow (beta) statistically to develop
(t,). The three time estimates t, t t, are combined
likelv to occur whereas the
1 Long-range planning. Expected time t, and t, are about
equally
t,. It is assumed that
2. Marketing programmes and the expected time times that of t.
is 4
advertising programmes. probability of occurrence of t_
3. Researh and Development
4. Defence projects.
products. and -
t, +4t, +t,
5. Installation of Therefore, t,=- 6
machinery.
6. Construction programmes. reliability in the time
7. Instituting inventory control. In order to maintain the
estimates
8. duration (t,), the variability in the time done by
Desigring and manufacturing prototype products. should be measured and this in turn can be Time

Steps in PERT Planning Technique standard deviation or variance of their probability

distribution. PERT simplifies the calculation of their Fig. 5.25.B- Distribution.
1. The projet is broken down into
different activities. deviation of the time.
2. The activities are arranged in a
3. The network diagram is drawn.
logical sequernce. Estimates, a . o )
Events and activities are numbered. and variance, V, =ot.
4. Using three tine estimates, the expected time 6
for each activity is calculated. difference int, and t,
5. Standard deviation and variance of each activity are estimates the greater will be the
6. EST and LFT are computed. 8reater the uncertainty in time
degree of uncertainty regarding the acivity hnes
calculated and marked on the
7. Slack is calculated, critical path is identified and network diagram. gn value of o, represents high indication is that the time
small, the
estimates are
the
if it is uncertainty on
8. Length of critical path or total project
marked on the network diagram Variance is the square of a, andwhile a large variance
indicates a greater
duration is found out.
9. Lastly, the probability that the project will finish at
fairly precise with little uncertainty
the due date is calculated. accomplishment of activity.
10. Analyse the network from the point of view of
resource and if it is deficient, fu
alternative ways to ue the resoures effiiently. Example 10 in number ofdaysfor
ctivities. The three time estimates
11. Device project control methods. tigineering project consists of sir
tach activity are given below:
250 OPERATIONS RESEARCH
237 LOADING AND SCHEDULING TECHNGUES

5
2-3 EST LFT
3-5 6
1319 Z
5-6 7 5
7
3
3
4-3
14

Star iritin (a, ) 4

Fig, 5.26. Network dgm

LST EFT Slack

LET
EST
Actioity 5
3
Sziim -5 1-2
6 5
5
2-3 6 13

,-7-1 3-5
5-6 13
6 13
20 13
2
23
3 2
1-4 11 2
13 3
4-5 3

days.
The total project duration is 20
BETWEEN CPM AND PERT
6 5.11 DIFFERENCE
differ from eah ote in te
both PERT and CPM are used synonymously ;they
Though
2+415--s 6
1
biowing respects :
CPM
1-3 PERT the enphasis is on

-5
1-4x1-11 1 PERT is used where
Sortenng projet exeaution ime without
PA is used where
the emphasis is on optimising resource allocation and
minimizing overall cost for a
given
too mudh concem for cost impicaion projectson eecution time.
$+416.1 6
with uncertaúndy in a Adeteninisic model
with wel known
2 A probabiistic model tne esttoats ane ctivity bine based on past experere.
7-417+-1 caity duration Three
tsed to make aHowances for urcertanhe
Ses srnge e estimate
Misativity oierted
activities is not
-4 3 An event oriented techróque. of dummy
3
3+6x3+3.3 seof dummy actvities is
reguired fo The ase The
represeting the proper sequenang
necessarg. aTOW diagarn tus
sighehy sinplez.
becores

piant
4-5 in industrial
2+4r8+4 3
Especially suitable in detence projects
Sutable lor probiens
maintenanae, c i
onstrscon projects etc
nd D where the activity times canot be
eaily predscted
 However, over a period of time the Standard Normal Distribution Function
there is very little difference between the twodifference between the two has
as they stand today. narrowed down and - Table1
Probability (Pr)(°%) Z(-) Probability (Pr)(°)
5.12 Z(+) 50.0
PROBABILITY OF ACHIEVING COMPLETION DATA 50.0
N -0.1 46.02
53.98
The distribution of times
B-distribution curve. If an activityassociated
+0.1 42.07
with activities in a production process is 57.93 -0.2
is having three time found tobes + 0.2
time to cmplete the activity, estimates t and f,, then the expertd 61.79 -0.3 38.21
+ 0.3 34.46
-0.4
65.54
+0.4 30.85
-0.5
69.15
6 +0.5 27.43
-0.6
72.57
+0.6
Standard deviation g= 75.80 -0.7 24.20
6 +0.7 21.19
-0.8
+ 0.8
78.81
-0.9 18.41
and variance 81.59
+0.9
-1.0 15.87
+ 1.0
84.13
13.57
By use of factor z, derived from the standard -1.1
deviation, expected 86.43
and by reference to table produced from the B-distribution curve, it is time and scheduled time, + 1.1
-1.2 11.51
possible to ascertain the 88.49
probability of an activity being completed by the scheduled time. Here, we assume that the
+1.2
-13 9.68
distribution for the total duration of the project is normal. +1.3 90.32
8.08
-14
Then the standard normal variate for the desired time (scheduled time) t, is + 1.4 91.92
given by 6.68
-15
Scheduled time - Expected time + 1.5 93.32
Z= -1.6 5.48
Standard deviation +1.6 94.52
4.46
-1.7
+1.7 95.54 3.59
ie., -18
+1.8 96.41 2.87
-1.9
From the table corresponding to the computed value of z the probability of achieving the
scheduled tíme can be determined.
+1.9 97.13 2.28
-2.0
+2.0 97.72 1.79
If the scheduled time is made the same as the expected time, z=0, the probability for this +2.1 98.21
-2.1
value of z is 50 percent. In other words, there is a fifty-fifty chance of the scheduled date being -2.2
1.39
achieved. Generally,65 percernt probabilíty is accepted as providing sufficient certainty associated +2.2 98.61 1.07
with the economical use of resources. A higher degree of certainty is only sought when other -23,
+2.3 98.93 s'y. 0.82
reasons override economíc consideration. -24
+2.4 99.18 0.62
For a project consistíng of number of activities, to calculate the probability of expected
achievingtime
the +2.5
'¡ tor each activity. Then the total
Completíon data, it is essential to compute 1, andactivity
99.38 0.47
is the arithmetíc sum of individual 't, for each ie, Et, =t,+t +2.6 99.53
2.6
0.35
2.7
acivities is
The standard deviation for the last event (network ending event) in a series of +2.7 99.65 0.26
+2.8 -2.8
given by 99.74 9.19
2.9
+ 2.9 99.81 0.13
-30
+3.0 99.87
 Example 1 10 10
For a
follous : particular actioity of 4 project, time estimates received from two
engineers Aand
6-9-18

10
4-7-1019|19
Engineer A 11
6 3030
Engineer B
1 - 7 - 1 6

4
9
State who is more certain about the time of
Solution, The degree of
variance of time estimates givenuncertainty
by
completion the job.
of
isindicated by the
engineer Ais variance of the time estimatos.T.
5-817 8 2-5-8
5

D23
0444 Fig. 5.27
The variance of time estimate of Solution.
engineer Bis Float Variance
Acti Duration EST LST EIT LIT
-0694 vity 18-6
6+4x 9+ 18 0 =4
10 10 10
Thus, the variance of time 0 6
will be the uncertainty, engineer estimate given by Bis more, since greater the 1-2 6
As time estimates have more certainty. variance, greater
5+4x 8+179 0 16 9 25 16
Example 2 1-3 6
6

Aproject is expected to take 12 months

4 months, What is the probability of conpleting along the eritical path, having a standard deviation of
4+4x7+ 22 9 19 19 0
2-4 10 10
months ?
the project within (a) 10 months ? () 16 months ? (c) 8
Solution. (a) The probability factor is given by 3-4
4+4x 7+ 16
9 10 17 19 2 (
T; -I10 -12 0.5
4 4 + 4x 10+ 22 30
4-5 11 19 11 30
From Table 5.1, for z05, probability 3085%.
(b) For T, 16 montlhs
2-5
4+4x 7+ 10 17 30 13
16-12 6 10 20
1
4

From Table 5.1, for z-lprobability -84.13%% 3-5

2+4x 5+B_s 14 30 16
6 21
() For T, =8 months
8-12
Critlcal path 1 2 4 5 (marked by double lines)
Probability for z=1 is 15.87%. Zo' along the critical path oj-; +o.+0i-s
4+9+9 =22
Example 3
Eor te etwork shown below, the time estimates (iM days) Jur euch uctivity are lndicated on # G22 469
diayun, Deternine () The expected time, and variancefor ench acivnty (0 The probbilily of completing
project durution (ie) Mark eritical path. Therefore, 23-T2-30 0.42
the project in 32 days (iii) The 4.69
From Table 1, for 22042, Pa 65.54%.
 Example 4 Duration EST LST EIT LIT Float Remarks
For &netuork shown in Fig. 5.28, find out Artivity 2+ 4 x
5+8
-5 (0 5 0 1 Critical
the eritical path. 6
|-2
8+4x Il+ 20 17 17
12 5 5 4 Critical
2-3
(dummy) 0 17 17 17 17 0 Critical
3-4 16
4 4 4x 7+ 5 9 13 17 4 4
5 2-4
15 13 |21|21 4 + 4x 9+
20
10 5 9 15 19 4 711
6 2-5
7+4x 10+ 13 1 Critical
- 10 17 17 27 27 0
4-6
1+4x7+17-8 15 19 21 27 4 5.44
5-6
812 15 27 3-7
3+4x 5 +13_6 17 25 23 31 2.78

2+ 4x 3+ 10 31 1.77 Critical
Fig. 5.28 4 27 27 31
6-7 6
Critical path : 1’47-8 2+4 x4 4 6
4 31 35 0.44 Critical
31
Project duration =21 days 7-8

Example 5 Crittcal path =1’2 -’3’4’6 -’7-8

Fig. 5.29 shous the network for a Standard deviation along the critical path
marked. Determine: construction project, with the three time estimates of cach activity - Lo -1+4+0+7.11 +177 + 0.44 =14.32
(a) Critical path and its standard deviation. =/1432 -378
(b) Probability of completion of project in 40 duys. Now z,
T, -T;40-35 107
(c) Tine duration that will provide 95% probability of its 3.78
completion tine.
Probability =857%
17 17 31 51 For 95% probability we have z =165
36 36
Now

Therefore T =Zo+T; =(378x 165) +35 =412 days.

20 20 -Example 6 related nformation
The followtng table glves the acttultles In a constructlon project and other
Actiolty Optimlstte tIme (days) Normal time (most likely tme) Vesstmlotie 46
Hme t,
10 1-2 2
12
2-3 3
[13|19) 24 3

Fig. s.29 1
12
 (i) Draw PERT diagram. (ii) Calculate total
a =56days. 50- 56
(i) Find the probability that the project will be project duration. (iin) Mark (expecteddate)D- E(t)
critical E =-11456
Solution. The PERT network is shown in Fig. completed in 50 days. path.
V) V27.43
Z=

5.30.
tables of normal distribution we find the required probability ie.,
3131| From the
P(zs-1262)approx.
31 3 Example7
path forthe following network. Calculate the
probability of meeting the schedule for
38|38 Drawaacritical time is 30 davs.
5 18
be last event if
the schedule
5)[56| 56 Fig. 5.30 Solution.
13
t,
t, =t,+ 4t,m +t,
Activity
14 6
2 5
1-2 5 1
|3636| 2 5 8
16
1-6 29 13
5 11
2-3 4 1
4 7
Activity Variance = 2-4 1
17 11 4
5 11
3-5 6 4
20+ 4 × 30+ 46 5 14
4-5 2 16
1-2 20 30 46 6
=31
=187n 6-7 3 9 27
8
11
3 1
2
1-3 9 12 21
9+4x 12 + 2113 5-8 2
7 13 31 15 16
6 7-8
6

1919
2-3 5 7 3+4x5+7_s
6
(2-04
2+4x 3+43
2-4 2 3 4 6
(j = 011
13 11 30| 30
3-4 1 2 3
1+4x2+3-2
6

12 + 4 x 18+ 24 6
39 33
18 24 . 18
4-5 12 6

Critical path =1’2’3’4’5

=27.43 10 24
Variance =1877+ 4+ 4.44 + 0.11+0.11+ 4 Due
date
Project duration = 56 days. 11

The calculation of probability can be done with 16 18

5.31.
the help of normal distribution in Fig.
Here, due date = 50 days = D Fig. 5.32
Vy =27.43 -35 - 25-6 0 5 25 36
Fig. 5.31 Critical path =12 ’3’5’8
Project duration =33 days.