Pak China relation

Defence
Trade—Gawadar
Energy
Transportation

Defence

 Sino-Pak relations enduring friendships that have withstood the pressures of time and
shifting geo-strategic conditions.
 The two countries established diplomatic ties in 1951
 In 2011, they commemorated 60 years of diplomatic ties, which was also designated as
the China-Pakistan Year of Friendship.
 As staunch allies and strategic partners for the past
few decades, China and Pakistan have shared a friendship which has proved of great value in
furtherance of their geo-political and strategic objectives.

Their strong convergence in

security interests has led to a multi-faceted strategic relationship which is reflected in a strong
show of support for each other’s positions across a wide spectrum of bilateral, regional and
international issues.

Yousuf Raza Gilani described the

relationship between Pakistan and China as being ‘higher than mountains, deeper than
oceans, stronger than steel and sweeter than honey.’2

In 2006, Chinese President Hu Jintao

had declared equally evocatively that ‘China can leave gold but not friendship with Pakistan’.

From China’s perspective, Pakistan serves many of its vital geo-strategic objectives in the
region.

First, friendship with Pakistan provides a useful counterbalance to India’s preeminence

in South Asia, helping to check India’s growing presence and clout in the region.
Second, Pakistan serves as an important gateway to the Muslim world. It also provides China
an access to energy rich countries in Western Asia, helping China meet its growing energy
requirements.
It also provides a quick physical channel to China’s relatively less developed
Western parts, particularly spurring development in the restive province of Xinjiang, which is
crucial to China’s internal security.

Third, it helps China in its long-term strategy of keeping US preponderent influence in the
region at bay.
From Pakistan’s perspective, China is an indispensable ally in helping Pakistan counter India
with which it has had an acrimonious and unequal relationship for the last six decades.
In addition, given US fickle track record as an ally in the past, Pakistan has a stake in reducing
its dependence on the US and cultivating China as a reliable strategic partner in the regional
security scenario.
Pakistan is also heavily dependent on China for its vital defence supplies and critical help in
augmenting its technological and nuclear capabilities.
Last, China provides it crucial moral and diplomatic support in the international arena in its time
of need.

Pakistan projects itself as an important country on the crossroads of Central, South and West
Asia.

Defence Cooperation
enduring pillar of Sino-Pak relationship is the defence and nuclear cooperation
Sino-Pak defence cooperation goes back to 1965, when, following an arms embargo imposed by
the US in the wake of 1965 Indo-Pak war, China stepped in as a replacement for the US to
supply arms to Pakistan.

In 1966, China had

supplied weapons to the tune of US$250 million that included Chinese made F-6 fighter
planes, T-59 tanks and anti-aircraft guns.
China has not looked back since and over the past
few decades, in addition to continuing with T-59 battle tanks and Chinese made A-5 and F-6
aircrafts, its armaments also included naval vessels, portable surface to air missiles (Anza-2)
and the Red Arrow anti-tank missiles

Chinese delivery of weapons played a significant role in augmenting Pakistan’s military

capabilities
From 1978-2008, the Chinese had sold US$7 billion worth of equipment to Pakistan
Today, China has emerged as Pakistan’s biggest arms supplier with almost 40 per cent of
China’s arms exports headed for Pakistan.
China has played an important role in the modernisation of its army, navy and air force.
China has provided critical investment and
technological support for Pakistan’s military-industrial complex helping it to build defence
industries and factories, shipyards, power plants and communication infrastructure.

China
and Pakistan have jointly developed fighter planes such as the FC-1 fighter planes (the
equivalent of the F-16)

China’s Chengdu Aircraft Industry Cooperation and Pakistan’s

Aeronautical Complex are also co-producing the JF-17 single-engine, multi-role combat

aircrafts which are considered more economical than the European/American models.

The
first consignment was released in 2007 and it is anticipated that a total of 250 aircrafts may
be in the pipeline.

The closeness of Sino-Pak strategic ties was proved yet again recently when Pakistan vulnerable
in the wake of US unilateral action to strike at Osama Bin Laden’s hideout, felt compelled to
boost its military capabilities

China brought forward

the delivery date of 50 JF-17 aircrafts to shore Pakistan’s air defence.

it agreed to deliver 36 CAC J-10 multipurpose fighter aircrafts to Pakistan.

collaborated on projects such as the K-8 Karakorum advance training

aircraft, Al Khalid Tanks, Babur cruise missiles, and Airborne Warning and
Control System

the navies of the two countries have also been working closely with each other.
agreement signed by both countries in 2005, China agreed to supply four frigate
ships to the Pakistan navy;
launch of PAKSAT-IR in August 2011

Building Pakistan’s Nuclear Capability

China has contributed significantly to the development of Pakistan’s nuclear capability.
Believed that: Chinese nuclear assistance
to Pakistan started in the 1970s and grew steadily in the 1980s and 1990s.

India’s nuclear
explosion in 1974 served as a further catalyst in Pakistan’s quest for nuclear prowess to
counter India’s potential dominance in the region.2

During the 1980s, the US, which was

wary of Soviet advancement in Afghanistan, chose to conveniently overlook Chinese nuclear
assistance to Pakistan but by the 1990s, it mounted pressure on China to conform to
international laws on exchange of nuclear technology and parts. China signed the Nuclear
Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) in 1992 and
1996 respectively, undertaking to only make safeguarded nuclear transfers.

However, despite

Other transfers included heavy water and high tech diagnostic equipment to build Pakistan’s
nuclear capability.
Pakistan maintains that it has an indigenously developed missile programme. As a press

China has also contributed to the development of nuclear power plants in Pakistan.
China has built two nuclear plants (Chashma I and II).
China agreed to build Chashma II in May 2004,
In 2010,
China agreed to sell two additional plutonium producing heavy water reactors (Chashma 3
and Chashma 4) to Pakistan despite international concerns that China was flouting NSG
rules.

All-Weather Partners
shared geopolitical goals which reflected in their mutual support for each other in regional and
international affairs.
A
highpoint of this cooperation has been the landmark ‘Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and
Good-neighbourly relations’ signed by the two countries in January 2005 underlining the
‘allweather
friendship’ and ‘all direction cooperation’ between the two countries.
The treaty
stipulates that ‘neither party will join any alliance or bloc which infringes upon the
sovereignty, security, and territorial integrity of the other side’ and bound both countries to
‘not conclude treaties of this nature with any third party.’

Pakistan has been an unequivocal supporter of China on issues of vital interest to it including
Taiwan, Tibet, human rights and East Turkestan.
China, likewise, has stood behind Pakistan on security issues like Kashmir, Afghanistan and
rising Islamist militancy.
Pakistan pushed China’s case for membership of SAARC it was later admitted as an external
observer.
China extended full support to Pakistan’s entry into the ASEAN Regional Forum, Asia Europe
Summit and as an observer in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO)

Energy Cooperation
energy security has emerged as a top priority concern for China in its regional strategic vision
China-- largest consumer of oil and gas
Pakistan’s strategic location at the gateway to energy rich regions
China’s heavy investment in the deep sea port of Gwadar that was inaugurated with great
fanfare by
former Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf in 2007 highlights growing Sino-Pak
cooperation in this sector.
Gwadar is important by virtue of its unique strategic location,
straddling Central, Western and South Asia, and is envisioned as a major trade and energy
hub for the region.
Through a rich overlay of roads, railways, and oil and gas pipelines, it is
expected to become a conduit for trade and energy to the landlocked Central Asian states, as
well as Iran and China.

Pakistan can amass huge revenues in transit fees.

Gwadar would allow Pakistan to diversify its options in the event of a naval blockade from
India, as it occurred during the 1971 crisis, and as it was feared during the Kargil crisis in 1999.
From China’s perspective, Gwadar could serve an alternative energy supply route from the
Middle East to western China.
Presently, most of Chinese supplies flow through the Malacca Straits, which is vulnerable to
piracy.
The Gwadar port could open another route for movement of energy and other resources to
China,
circumventing Indian and US influence in the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea.

Shipments carrying oil from the Persian Gulf to China via Gwadar (only 400 km away from
the Straits of Hormuz where 80% of the world’s energy supplies pass) are also expected
greatly to benefit China in terms of cutting down considerably on travel time and costs.

it helps China to develop its relatively backward Western provinces through

increase in trade and developmental activity.

China hopes that the physical proximity of the

Western provinces with Gwadar could help in the transformation of its backward areas to
more developed regions.

China provided 80 per cent of the US$248 million

for the first phase of the project.
China has also provided US$200 million for the construction of the Coastal Highway linking
Gwadar with Karachi in addition to the financial and technical assistance for the upgrading of
the Karakoram highway and Pakistan railways.

Xinjiang and Counter-terrorism

Security implications for China is the rising extremism in Pakistan, and its spread to China’s
Xinjiang
Province, bordering Pakistan
Xinjiang is China’s largest province and the second largest producer of gas and oil respectively
and therefore its importance to China is critical in more ways than one.

Xinjiang is an autonomous region of China, that houses over 40 ethnic groups, the largest
being the Uighurs, who are mainly followers of Islam.

The Uighurs have been fighting for a

separatist state for a long time, but in the last few years, Xinjiang has visibly become the
centre of revolt against the Chinese central authorities.

China fears that religious fervour

could further inflame separatist sentiments among the Uighurs against it, and undermine its
national integrity and control. It is particularly wary of violent incidents such as the riots of
July 2009 and 2011, which embarrassed China internationally.
During the
Musharraf action against Uighur settlements in Pakistan and East Turkestan Islamic Movement
(ETIM) leaders, including Hasan Mahsum
The Lal Masjid operation of July 2007

China’s studious silence changed with the July 2011 attacks in the
city of Kashgar in Xinjiang.
The attacks drew a stern reaction from local Kashgar authorities,
who for the first time implicated Pakistan by suggesting that the ETIM leaders in Xinjiang
had received training in Pakistan-based camps.

Pakistan’s political inability to rein in terrorism both within and

outside its borders, could have long-term ramifications on Sino-Pak relations at the political
level and also in terms of investment and economic cooperation.

Increased militant activities

across Pakistan could threaten China’s long-term economic and commercial interests as its
investments in Pakistan have continued to grow apace in sectors such as defence,
transportation, space programmes, telecommunications and energy, much of this with state
patronage.

The Regional Dynamics

Sino-Pak/ India and the US
These four countries are interconnected through a series of complementary and conflicting
interests in the region.

The security dynamics of China, US,

Pakistan and India, whose power and influence intersect at various points of the strategic
landscape in the region, is an integral part of South Asian regional security.

China and US
engagement with the two South Asian powers, India and Pakistan, in some ways, remains at
the heart of the regional security conundrum.
Just as shared antipathy towards India has
historically been a common factor in sustaining Sino-Pak ties, Sino-Pak entente has in no
small measure proved a vexing issue in Sino-Indian normalisation.
The warming of Indo-US (nuclear deal)

Pakistan is witnessing one of

the lowest phases in its relations with the US and is increasingly leaning on China for greater
moral and material support.

China and India, despite improvement in ties since 1988,

continue to have strategic differences on a wide variety of issues which makes for inevitable
undercurrents of power contest and rivalry between them.

At the global level, China and the US have key strategic differences on their respective global
role and influence.
This has major implications for the security dynamics and power equations in the region.

India as a Factor
India, with whom both Pakistan and China have shared adversarial relations resulting in
armed hostilities
important factor in cementing Sino-Pak relations.
Pakistan-India adversial relations— Kashmir, over which both have gone to war four times.
Mistrust btw Pakistan and India on issues such as Kashmir, terrorism and Afghanistan

India has witnessed a dramatic growth in its trade and investment with China, which has
overtaken the US as India’s largest trading partner.
border issue remains unresolved leading to periodic flare-ups in Arunachal Pradesh.
Dalai Lama’s presence in India only heightens the tensions
Most important, given their geopolitical rivalry and power potential, the two countries
inherently see each other as long-term contestants for power and influence in Asia.

China is particularly watchful of India forging strong strategic and economic links with
important countries in South East and East Asia including Australia, Japan, Singapore and
Vietnam signalling both its will and capability to play a more proactive role

The terrorist attack on Indian Parliament in December 2001, claimed by India to be

masterminded by
Pakistan-based militant organisations, brought Indo-Pak relationship to a new low.
Relations dipped precariously again with the 2008 Mumbai blasts which, according to India,
pointed to the involvement of the Pakistan based Lashkar-e Taiba group. Pakistan, however,
has categorically denied these allegations.
Concluding Remarks
shared strategic interests and geopolitical goals will continue to be the most
important cementing factor in Sino-Pak security and defence relations.

The trajectory of Indo-US strategic ties and the downward spiralling of US-Pak relations will also
trigger its own logic on Sino-Pak security dynamics.

China’s support for Pakistan from its long-term

strategic perspectives, would primarily be in three broad areas:
Pakistan’s geo-strategic significance in ensuring access to the vast emerging resources in West
Asia and Central Asia;
its value in containing India’s power and influence;
its usefulness to China in its longterm bid to counter US global dominance in the context of
changing strategic alignments in South Asia and South-west Asia.

China is today its largest benefactor in the economic, strategic and

geo-political spheres
As long as India-Pakistan peace process remains grounded on the issue of terrorism and
Kashmir, Pakistan’s relations with US are a downward spiral, and Sino-Indian relations
remain a mix of cooperation and contest, Pakistan would continue to view China as its most
strategic ally.
Pakistan would need Chinese support in counterbalancing India’s regional
predominance and also to some extent the US growing influence in power profile in the
region to some extent the US in the South, Central and Western Asian region.

The only potential challenge to the close relationship from the growing Islamist
fundamentalism and
political instability in Pakistan

Should militancy rise and start to inversely impact Beijing’s economic and security interests,
including energy routes and infrastructural investments, it could place some burdens on the
Sino-Pak relationship.

Military to Military cooperation

Pakistan developed its armaments programme with Chinese assistance

From 1971 to 1978, China assisted Pakistan in building two defence-related mega projects
the Heavy Industries Taxila and its part Heavy Rebuild Factory for T-59 tanks
F-6 Aircraft Rebuild Factory

self-reliant in the production of a conventional weapons system as China never attach any
political strings to its aid, which

Pakistan’s missile programme owed a lot to China

Hatif-1 ,2,3

In October 2003, China and Pakistan conducted a joint maritime search and rescue exercise
near
Shanghai. That was the first time for the navy of the Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) to make an
exercise with a foreign country.

Similarly in November 2005, both navies conducted a second

joint maritime search and rescue exercise in Karachi. That was again for PLA Navy to conduct a
joint exercise in waters abroad.

supplier of conventional military equipment; F-7 fighters, T-96 main battle tank, K-8-Karakerum,
advance training aircraft and space technology.

Joint Ventures in Strategic Areas

cooperation in defence production; aircrafts, fighter bombs, tanks, and heavy artillery.
Joint manufacture of MBT 2000 (Al-Khalid Tank) and ‘JF- 17 Thunder,’ a fighter aircraft, which
has the strategic significance

China assisting in Gwadar seaport, the coastal highway linking Karachi to Gwadar, up-gradation
of Karakorum highway, Sandik projects, nuclear power plants and number of hydropower
projects.

Port project
The strategic location of the port serves as a key shipping point of the region and its strategic
value augments Pakistan’s role in the region with permitting China to expand and secure its
crude oil import routes.
Beijing will access to the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean and would be in position to monitor
American naval activity, joint exercises of Indo-US navies and energy shipments from the
Persian Gulf.
It‘d provide an alternative passage to Central Asia for exports of energy resources.

Karakoram Highway is to link the Central Asian Republics with the region, which is developing
as the Pak-China Trade Corridor.

In this regard, the highway is being upgraded and lying of a railway track along the KKH is also in
progress.
This would provide links from Gwader to Xinjiang through an all weather highway
Pakistan—China’s easy access to the Atlantic and the Indian Ocean.
Pakistan as an economic and military corridor to reach the Middle East
and Africa

Time tested Sino-Pak relations

The all weather strategic partnership between Pakistan and China viewed
with envy by regional and international powers

Sino-Pak relations have withstood the test of time and signify the expression
of mutual respect, deep sentiments of affinity and natural political alliance.

Relations based on righteous policies.. culminated in each nation providing

support to the proposals, plans and interests of the other at regional and
international forums

unequivocal in its support of Pakistan’s stand on Kashmir

complete unity of thought regarding each other’s strategic thinking and
policy framework.
Pak relations— manifestation of the feelings of two nations

The new leaderships— fresh avenues of development and economic

opportunities like commerce, trade and business in the regional and
international arenas.

The all weather strategic partnership between Pakistan and China viewed
with envy by regional and international powers like India, Japan, the US

The region, including the Indian Ocean, is rich with natural resources and an
energy-starved world is vying to acquire control of mineral reserves as well
as oil, gas and coal reserves.

In a bid to dominate energy sources, they are tempted create a wedge

between China and Pakistan by igniting mistrust and planting seeds of doubt
between the two friends.

A recent analysis titled ‘China in Pakistan: An Awkward Relationship Beneath

the Surface’, published by the Royal United Strategy Institute (RUSI
Newsbrief, January 15, 2014) is a clear example of this kind of thinking.

The US and other western powers, being economic rivals of China creating
suspicion btw pak china relation
who are planning to undertake mega economic projects like the China-
Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) connecting the Pakistani port of Gwadar
with Kashgar in Xinjiang region of China, construction of dams for Pakistan,
which has been badly hit by the energy deficit, and Chinese investment in
the Pakistani textile, energy, banking, commerce, telecommunications and
industry sectors, and numerous other development projects.

Trade—Gawadar

PAK CHINA ECONOMIC CORRIDOR

Pakistan-China Economic Corridor would transform bilateral relations

of the two countries into a real economic strategic partnership,
Ahsan Iqbal

Pakistan is going to generate 10,400 megawatts energy through 14

new power projects with Chinese assistance; these include hydel,
coal, solar and wind energy projects.

establishment of state-of-the-art industrial zone in Gwadar was

another core feature of Pakistan-China trade corridor.

the government would enhance the country’s existing exports from

$25 billion to $150 billion till 2025 as per the Vision-2025.

The China-Pakistan Economic corridor to connect Gwadar Port to

Xinjiang via highways, railways[1] and pipelines to transport oil and gas.
Chinese Premier Li Keqiang was among the first advocates of the project
Chinese President Xi Jinping, former Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari and Pakistan
Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif have become strong supporters of the project.
it will serve as a primary gateway for trade between China and the Middle East and
Africa
oil from the Middle East could be offloaded at Gwadar, which is located just outside the
mouth of the Persian Gulf, and transported to China through the Baluchistan
Such a link would vastly cut the 12,000-kilometre route that Mideast oil supplies must
now take to reach Chinese ports.[3]
control of Gwadar was transferred to China in Feb 2013.
Built by Chinese workers and opened in 2007, Gwadar is undergoing a major expansion
to turn it into a full-fledged deep-water commercial port.
signed agreements for constructing an international airport at Gwadar,
upgrading a section of the 1,300-kilometre Karakorum Highway connecting to
Islamabad
On November 2014, Chinese government announced that it will finance Chinese
companies to build $45.6 billion worth of energy and infrastructure projects in Pakistan
as part of CPEC.
China has promised to invest around $33.8 billion in various energy projects and $11.8
billion in infrastructure projects which will be completed by 2017 at most.
The deal includes $622 million for Gwadar port,
$15.5 billion worth of coal, wind, solar and hydro energy projects will add 10,400
megawatts of energy to the national grid of Pakistan.[8][9]

3 billion people from China, South Asia and Central Asia, would be benefited
It has the potential to empower half of the world’s population living in Asia, by
developing special trade routes between China and Pakistan.

Federal government had announced six development schemes costing Rs130 billion
under the Pakistan-China Economic Corridor, marking the beginning of a process that
will transform the country into a transit hub for the second largest economy of the world.

60pc of oil is being imported from gulf countries that reaches China after covering the
distance of 16,000 KMs, and after the completion of Gawadar port project, the distance
will reduce to 2500 KMs only which is more safe and feasible.

It will re-open the economic artery blocked for years, realise the interconnection in
transport, trade, investment and finance and build a new Euro-Asian economic roadmap
benefitting countries along the Silk Road and even more.”

no dearth of energy and recourses in Central Asia which would be available to others in
the region

China to construct an international rail link connecting Xinjiang’s border to Pakistan.

this new rail link, which runs through the Pamir Plateau and Karakorum mountains, will
be one of the hardest to build.

Pakistan is considering to provide shortest access and transit corridor for Kashghar
goods.

Gawadar developed in cooperation with China will provide an additional gateway and
for this, China is developing in its west “Kashghar’s Special Economic Zone”, which
would link China further on the western side with Central Asia and on its south with
South Asia.

China has planned numerous mega projects to be started at Gawadar

China to replicate the model of Shanghai free Trade Zone at the sideways of Economic
Corridor.

Under the Early Harvest Program, China had planned to pump $50’billion up to 2017
into a host of projects in Gawadar including coal, solar and wind energy units enabling
Gawadar to create a nexus between Pakistan, Iran, China and Central Asian States that
would ultimately generate billions of dollars in revenues of Pakistan’s kitty besides
creating endurable job opportunities.

The Free Trade Zone at Gawadar would also introduce the similar incentives to the
foreign investors as are offered in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, which will turn the
Gawadar a hub of foreign investment.

According to Chinese investment plans, Baluchistan has a share of 38pc, by generating

economic activities ensuing to the modern infrastructure facilities and ample
employment opportunities for the locals that will also end the anti-state activities in
Baluchistan.

The Chinese investors have evinced serious interest in acquiring land in the vicinity of
Gawadar Port Free Zone for developing the Industrial parks around.

It would be advantageous for the natural endowments of Baluchistan including Oil, Gas,
Copper, Gemstones, Marble and Gold reserves that would better be exploited by
providing the professional training to the local manpower in conjunction with the soft
loan schemes to help create a network of micro and small enterprises in the province.

assistance to Pakistan in the field of ‘civil nuclear technology.

Nawaz Sharif inaugurated two Chinese sponsored nuclear power projects of 1100MW
each in Karachi last year.
Earlier, China helped Pakistan in establishing four civil nuclear power plants (including
two under construction) at Chasma.

China provided this assistance to Pakistan despite the concern of US and its allies on
Pak-China civil nuclear cooperation.

In the rapidly changing geo-strategic and security environment, both countries are likely
to face many regional and global challenges.

Chinese Premier Li, “to be friends forever is the cherished desire of both nations.”

Despite the fact that the free trade zone port of Gwadar in Pakistan’s southwestern
province of Balochistan has been an unprofitable enterprise with operational control
now in Chinese hands, its potential remains.

If anything, the development of the deep ocean port and an associated international
airport, as well as the creation of a transport corridor connecting Gwadar to China’s
easternmost province of Xinjiang, is a game changer for the Central Asian region.

In Beijing this February, President Mamnoon Hussain and Chinese President Xi Jinping
signed a series of agreements designed to breathe life to the corridor project. In the
coming years, the once sleepy fishing enclave of Gwadar will become a staging ground
for the geopolitical reorganization of the region.

With the development of the corridor, Central Asia, traditionally an economically closed
region owing to its geography and lack of infrastructure, will have greater access to the
sea and to the global trade network.

For Afghanistan and Tajikistan, both of which have signed transit agreements with
Pakistan, it will provide a more economical means of transporting goods, making their
export products more competitive globally.
For China, the corridor will provide it with direct access to the Indian Ocean, enabling
China to project itself strategically into the mineral and oil rich regions of Western Asia
and Africa (and beyond)

And for Pakistan, the project provides the country not only a third deep-sea port but
also a better connected gateway into China’s backyard, giving Pakistan the potential to
make good on its free trade agreement with the dragon economy.

In purely realist terms, the project makes Pakistan a complicit satellite in China’s
attempt to break the U.S. encirclement of Asia.

This “String of Pearls” looks much like a noose around Southeastern Asia as far as India
and the United States are concerned.

India has looked on with continued unease at the Pakistan-China corridor and port in
terms of its effect on the maritime balance of power in the Indian Ocean.

the corridor would be a circuit linking the three economic powerhouses of the region,
China, Pakistan, and India (as well as Iran for that matter), integrating the economic
systems of South Asia and Central Asia.

play a crucial role in advancing Pakistan’s economic power.

Exporting, transiting, and transporting goods into and out of Central Asia and carrying
them away on the current of the world’s sea lanes, the Pakistan-China corridor will be a
vital factor in Pakistan’s economic future.

a comprehensive infrastructure package encompassing a wide range of spinoffs,

including gas and oil pipelines, railways, an expressway from Karachi to Lahore, fiber-
optic cabling, metro bus and underground services for key Pakistani cities.

The security situation must improve and reform, both economic and social, is required if
the future economic prosperity of Pakistan is to be guaranteed.

Pakistan-India relations are a one sided game e.g the post cold war and post
9/11scenarios

the US and EU countries terming India(poverty ridden) as a major world power/

counterweight to the rising China

considering it a major trading and investment market due to its vast population and
cheaper labour force.

the Kashgar-Gwadar rail link is just one part – it’s been underpinned by a
relationship that Pakistan is already to quote as being higher than the
‘Himalayas’. The China factor has always been this country’s safety net
whenever its strategic policy blunders go awry

Since 2012, the middle kingdom has replaced the US as Pakistan’s largest
trade partner, effectively ending a reign that lasted several decades.

As of 2013, trade between Pakistan and China amounted to $13 billion.

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor to boost economy, committee told

Under this a number of projects

6X660 megawatts (MW) coal based power projects (independent power

producer) at Gadani with expected cost of $5.940 billion,

2X660 MW coal based power projects at Port Qasim of $1.980 billion,

100 MW Khala Hydro power project with estimated cost of $2.397 billion,

solar power park at Bahawalpur 900 MW (100 MW by public sector) at

$1.350 billion,

rehabilitation and up-gradation of Karachi-Lahore-Peshawar (ML-1) railway

track 1,736 kilometers (85% financing from China: 15% Pakistan share)
with a total cost of $3.650 billion.

There are total 37 projects of national importance with a total cost of

$39.553 billion.

amount for all agreements of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is

around US$34 billion,
around 22 agreements have already been signed between the friendly
neighbours.

SCO and Pakistan’s aspirations

The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) is a Eurasian security
organisation, which was founded in 2001 in Shanghai by the leaders
of China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan and
Uzbekistan.

Except for Uzbekistan, the other countries had been members of the
Shanghai Five, founded in 1996; but after its inclusion in 2001, the
members renamed the organisation.
During its June 2002 summit, at Saint Petersburg, Russia, the heads
of the organisation’s member states signed the SCO Charter, which
expounded on its purposes, principles, structures and form of
operation, and established it officially from the point of view of
international law.

Its six full members account for 60 percent of the land mass of
Eurasia and its population is a quarter of the world.

Afghanistan, India, Iran, Mongolia and Pakistan have been accorded

“Observer” status,
while Belarus, Sri Lanka and Turkey have been dialogue partners.

India, Iran, Pakistan and Turkey are aspirants of full membership of

SCO.

Both China and Russia have endorsed the full membership of India
and Pakistan.

In June 2010, the SCO approved the procedure of admitting new

members, though they are yet to be admitted.

It seems that SCO as a regional body is likely to be a counter

balance to Nato and its activities, which include cooperation on
economic, cultural, security, military, intelligence sharing, and
counter-terrorism.

The US too was desirous of joining SCO as an “Observer”. But wary

of its ambitions as the sole global power, its request was rejected.

Pakistan is desirous of attaining full membership expeditiously, but

it is also cognisant of the fact that presently the permanent
members of SCO want to maintain a low-key, rather than announce
their intention of providing counterfoil to Nato.

The membership application of Turkey, which is already an

ally/member of Nato, and Iran raise questions and are subject to
debate.
Keeping this in view, Pakistan realises that offering full membership
to one country and denying to others will create a dichotomy so it is
willing to bide time till an opportune moment arrives.

During the Bonn Conference on December 5, 2011, the Chinese

Foreign Minister in his address had indicated that regional bodies
like SCO should have a role in the post 2014 Afghanistan, rather
than Western nations.

Islamabad endorses this opinion and being a stakeholder in Afghan

peace, would welcome SCO’s participation in post 2014 Afghanistan.

Pakistan is conscious of Zbigniew Kazimierz Brzezinski’s theory that

“control of the Eurasian land mass is the key to global domination
and control of Central Asia is the key to control of the Eurasian land
mass.

” Since SCO has also apparently paid heed to the Brzezinski theory,
Pakistan would seek to cast its lot with the organisation.

Pakistan’s aims of curbing extremism and enhancing border security

also coincide with SCO’s charter of activities and since the state is
suffering from both these problems, it would endeavour to gain from
the experiences of SCO members to address the issue.

Trade and economic cooperation are also areas of interest for

Pakistan, since Central Asia has a strong development and business
potential based on “the availability of energy, natural resource and
work force.”

Joint Military Exercises have been held in the past between SCO
members;
Pakistan would be keen to participate in future counter-terrorism
exercises as well as intelligence sharing cooperation.

Central Asia and peace and stability in Afghanistan hold the key to
the fruition of Sino-Pak agreements on the establishment of an
economic corridor, development of Gwadar Port and TAPI.

Balochistan will remain embroiled in conflict until there is

tranquillity in Afghanistan.

Gwadar Port as well as the bulk of the economic corridor lies in

strife-torn Balochistan,

TAPI would run through Afghanistan.

So the port’s optimum utilisation will depend on Central Asia and

Afghanistan making full use of it.

Sino-Pak talks are likely to focus on the fast track execution of the
economic corridor project as well as post 2014 Afghanistan, and
bringing an end to the extremist attacks and their possible trickle
effect on China’s Xingjian province.

Turbulent Waters of the South China Sea

The South China Sea dispute is one over territory and sovereignty over
ocean areas and the Paracels and the Spratlys - two island chains claimed in
whole or in part by a number of countries.

China claims the largest portion of territory - an area defined by the "nine-
dash line" which stretches hundreds of miles south and east from its
southern province of Hainan.

China says its right to the area comes from 2,000 years of history where the
Paracel and Spratly island chains were regarded as integral parts of the
Chinese nation.
Vietnam hotly disputes China's historical account, saying China had never
claimed sovereignty over the islands before the 1940s.

The other major claimant in the area is the Philippines, which invokes its
geographical proximity to the Spratly Islands as the main basis of its claim
for part of the grouping.

Competition over resource remain central to the dispute.

Plentiful deposits of resources lie under the South China Sea –
about 11 billion barrels of petroleum
190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas
The potential for shale gas development is also high.

Now six nations – China, Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines and
Brunei – presently claim the Spratly Islands in part.

The parties concerned assent to resolve their disputes in the South China
Sea through friendly consultations and negotiations in accordance with
universally recognized international law, under the 1982 U.N. Convention on
the law of the Sea.

Dr. Wu Sichun, president of the National Institute for South China Sea
Studies accused Vietnam of tolerating the protests in order to put pressure
on China and warns that the involvement of the US in territorial disputes in
the South China Sea will result in a power rivalry which will only worsen the
situation.

“If you take a closer look at history, you will find evidence which strongly
supports China's sovereignty claim.

In 1946, China resumed the control of these islands which had been seized
by Japan during the World War II.

In 1958, Vietnam's then Prime Minister Pham Van Dong recognized China's
sovereignty over the Paracels and the Spratlys in his official note to China's
then Premier Zhou Enlai.”
Since the outbreak of anti-China protests that had gripped Vietnam, the
escalation prompted ASEAN foreign ministers to call on all involved parties to
restrain themselves from a violent outbreak and follow the protocol of the
Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC).
China has been actively trying to seek diplomatic means to resolve this
issue.

China has always adhered to direct bilateral negotiations with relevant

country to solve dispute of sovereignty over islands and maritime
demarcation, Hong Lei, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman

The direct cause of the disputes between China and the Philippines on South
China Sea is the Philippines illegal occupation of some Chinese islets, Hong
said,

China's stance is in full compliance with international law, Hong said,

China hopes the Philippines will honor its commitment by not taking any
action that could complicate the issue, positively respond(ing) to China's
proposal to establish a bilateral dialogue mechanism on maritime issues and
work(ing) to solve the issue through bilateral negotiations,"

The worsening of the situation in Vietnam has caused China and Vietnam
both to seek arbitration by the United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-
moon to help end their dispute in the South China Sea.

This is a recent development on the issue taken on the 10th of June 2014.

Chances of negotiations seem favourable as Vietnam called on China to

“create conditions” for talks on a plan “to stabilize the situation and control
the maritime issues between the two countries.”

The sea dispute is one that concerns all countries in the East Asian territory,
the sea being a major means by which goods are transported.

Due to the highly integrative nature of East Asian economies it is also of

utmost concern to maintain stability; for which now the region is seeking
international arbitration.
Pak-China Defense Collaboration since 1947 till 2014

The Heavy Industries Taxila was also set up with Chinese assistance in 1971.
Tank Al-Khalid
Tank Al-Zarar

Pakistan Navy designed the PNS Shujaat, the first of its kind to be built in
Karachi, in 1999 with support from China.

China has continued to provide Pakistan with technological and scientific

expertise to foster Pakistan’s Nuclear Weapons and Ballistic Missile programs

collaboration matured throughout the 1980s and 1990s.

largest defense supplier and the last decade witnessed an increase

Pakistan became capable of manufacturing the JF-17 Fighter Plane in 2003.

The fighter plane, tested in China, possesses the capabilities of Mirage 2000
and F-7s.

China provided
F-22P frigates with helicopters,
K-8 jet trainers,
T-85 tanks,
F-7 aircraft,

joint military exercises

The Shaheen Exercise first took place in 2011, while the second in the series
was held in 2013.

On an official visit to Pakistan in February 2014, the Chinese Defense

Minister remarked that mutual cooperation between China and Pakistan has
an “over-arching strategic dimension” and emphasized that both countries
should continue to maintain cordial relations in the field of defense.

Nawaz Sharif’s recent visit to China and the signing of contracts worth $40
billion highlight the significance of growing bilateral ties between the two
countries and points towards positive implications for future.

Pak China: Gwadar and ‘the great game’

It is perhaps a less known fact that when President Richard Nixon
visited Pakistan in 1973, Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto sought
US help to construct a new port at Gwadar, and reportedly offered
the US Navy use of the facility.

The US was not interested as mere 70 kilometres to the west lay

Chahbahar, a naval base, a full-fledged cantonment for a division’s
strength force and a 12,000 feet long runway operating fighter
bombers, long-range reconnaissance and air-to-air refuelling tankers
– with the Shah of Iran playing the US policeman overlooking the
Indian Ocean south up to eight degree latitude.

China later signed on the project four months after the US attacked
Afghanistan.

Four decades later, the handing over of this strategically located

port to China by another Pakistan Peoples Party-led government is,
therefore, an important development as it may have placed Gwadar
on the matrix of intense geo-strategic competition.

The port has the potential to act as a catalyst for such projects as
the trans-shipment of bulk cargo, oil storage, refinery,
petrochemicals, export processing and industrial zones, export of
minerals and ship repair industry.

When fully functional, it has the potential to benefit many

neighbouring and landlocked counties in the region in one way or
the other.
India was quick to react, calling it a matter of concern for reasons
not too difficult to understand as the China-Pakistan naval synergy
in Gwadar , while improving their own energy security situation, can
also pose problems for India’s sea lines of communications.

This can turn into a nightmare if the US thins out its presence in
Bahrain due to its economy or reduced dependence on Gulf oil if
there is greater credibility in reports about its self-sufficiency in this
century.

While Gwadar gives access to China into the Indian Ocean,

Chahbahar – where India is investing generously – gives access to
India into Afghanistan.

Normally, it is the weaker country that gets concerned when a

stronger country adds to its national power, but it seems to be an
established pattern now that whatever is in Pakistan’s interest is a
matter of concern for India.

India was never unaware of the significance of Gwadar in the global

power play and therefore came up with a two-ponged strategy: a)
by constructing a sprawling naval base at Karwar south of Goa on
the western springboard of the Indian Ocean and b) investment in
Chahbahar to provide India access to Afghanistan via the Indian
Ocean.

The first phase of the Karwar base was completed in 2005 at a cost
of US $8 billion while India, Iran and Afghanistan have signed an
agreement to give Indian goods destined for Central Asia and
Afghanistan preferential treatment and tariff concessions at
ChahBahar.

India and China are locked in an intense competition astride the

energy highway of the 21st century in Chahbahar and Gwadar.

India is in the process of constructing the Chahbahar-Milak-Zaranj-

Dilaram road from Iran to Afghanistan, while the 213 kilometres
long Zaranj-Dilaram section in Afghanistan’s Nimroz province has
already been completed.
It is also assisting Iran in upgrading the Chahbahar-Milak rail track.
For Iran, a well-developed rail/road infrastructure from Chahbahar
stretching to the Afghanistan border translates into greater
influence in Afghanistan over Shia and non-Pakhtun ethnic groups
and is an added political dividend in its relations with Pakistan and
the US.

To exert further pressure on China on the Hormuz to Malacca straits

oil route, India is accelerating construction of a high-tech naval base
at Rambilli west of Visakhapatnam on its eastern coast which will
include underground berths for nuclear weapons armed submarines.

The force levels at the Eastern Naval Command (ENC)

headquartered at Visakhapatnam have already been enhanced where
at least 50 warships, including an amphibious landing ship and
nuclear submarines, are based.

Likewise, the tri-services Andaman and Nicobar Commands (ANC)

has been bolstered from where high-tech IAF aircraft occasionally
break the sound barrier over the narrow Malacca Strait to announce
their arrival.

The Indo-US strategic relationship and the US pivot to the east only
add to the concerns of the littoral states of the Indian Ocean.

While other facilities at Myanmar and Sri Lanka can help China
towards increased energy security, it is Gwadar – due to its
geographical location – that can free oil-thirsty China from security
concerns over a longer southern transportation route as it vies with
the US for number one economy by end of this century.

Direct access to the Indian Ocean through Gwadar would also give
China a strategic post of observation and a key location for its navy,
whose ships recently participated in a multination exercise in the
waters south of Gwadar.
China Central Television (CCTV) recently announced the acquisition
of four diesel electric submarines to add to its fleet of 65 subsurface
vessels and two squadrons of advanced multi-role fighters from
Russia.

The deal, the first major purchase in a decade, was later denied by
Russian news agency Itar-Tass.

Whatever the truth, China may have executed its own ‘pivot’ by
coming closer to Russia in order to counterbalance US interests in
Asia.

Certain western capitals that tow US foreign policy understand this

great game well and extend hospitality to Baloch nationalist
politicians, as do the US senators who sponsor resolutions in their
senate, sidestepping the legally vexing question of how Nasir Khan I
could, in the first place, ‘grant’ Gwadar to Al Bu Sai’d of Muscat who
was a ‘refugee’ in the territory of the Khan of Kalat in the 18th
century – an act for which Pakistan had to pay $3 million nearly a
century later.

As part of hinterland infrastructural development, China is

interested in the construction of Gwadar to Nawabshah and
upgrading the Karakorum Highway to connect China’s Xinjiang
region with Pakistan’s Gilgit-Baltistan region.

In 2006, a memorandum of understanding was signed between both

countries to upgrade this road and connect Kashgar and Abbottabad.

President Asif Ali Zardari and China’s President Hu Jintao are

believed to have discussed a 3,000 kilometres rail line between
Gwadar and Kashgar in July 2010.

The cost would be enormous, up to US $30 million per kilometre in

the highest mountains but this kind of money will have to be found
if the Gwadar-China connection is to become the Suez Canal of the
21st century as described by some analysts.
But we also need to understand that, while Pak-China friendship is
higher than the Himalayas and deeper than the Indian Ocean, the
Chinese are not careless with their money and will invest only if
they see any dividends.

We, therefore, have to create the right conditions in Balochistan for

such ambitious projects to take off so as to contend with Indo-US
challenges in the region.

The successive governments in Pakistan have not paid due attention

to the ports and shipping sector and almost every political party in
power has managed it more for personal gains than national
interest. As we stand to almost certainly usher in another corrupt
government, there is unlikely to be sufficient funding for any robust
defence of our maritime interests.

The least we can do then is improve our energy security through

Gwadar so that the county can put up a spirited defence should the
need arise.

The 30,000-odd navy personnel and a few thousand merchant

mariners are not enough to engage the national imagination.

The strategic location of Gwadar be as it may, we shall not be able

to draw the fullest advantage from it unless there is a larger
national orientation towards the other ‘great game’ that is being
played on the ocean in the south.

Pak china relation: security, economic &trade cooperation

Pakistan and China enjoy exemplary friendly ties, which have not only sustained
changes of governments and the ups and downs in the regional and global situation,
but, in fact, have been expanding and becoming even deeper. It is in the interest of both
the countries to keep an eye on the new and emerging regional and global scenario and
come up with appropriate strategy to meet the challenges. The selection of “Regional
Situation and Security” for discussion and deliberations between the Chinese and
Pakistani scholars is both important and timely.
China and Pakistan are situated in an area that has great geographical importance and
hosts almost half of the world’s population. Along with the human resources, the area is
also rich in natural material resources. This speaks volumes about the importance of
stability in the region and of amiable relations between the countries situated here. The
fact that three of the seven declared nuclear states of the world are situated here, and
another, Russia, has its own interests in the region because of Central Asian states’
being contiguous to the region, further adds to the importance of this region.
Threats to Regional Stability
While there are quite a few problems in the region that are related to security, a
historical focus on common borders of China and Pakistan underlines the significance
of the Afghan problem, continuing instability in Central Asia, the lingering issue of
Kashmir along with the extremist trends and rivalry or competition between two or more
states in the region. The first three give rise to the fourth, while state or states with
hegemonic designs exploit the situation by maintaining the status quo or even
exacerbating the problems.
Afghanistan: The country is in the throes of war and internecine conflicts for more than
25 years. While the country was already witnessing infighting and strife in the ’70s,
direct invasion by the now defunct Soviet Union in 1979 aggravated the situation – not
only for the country or for its neighbors, but also for the whole world because of the
might and scale of invasion. A large-scale resistance movement against the Soviet
occupation and international pressure did succeed in expelling the Soviets from
Afghanistan in 1989-90, but the war-ravaged country was left abandoned. Faulty
withdrawal scheme, delay in the formation of a broad-based consensual government,
and international community’s indifference to the plight of Afghans led to widespread
anarchy and chaos and those who had waged war against an occupation force, turned
against one another in a bid to establish own writ in a country devoid of any modicum of
peace and rule of law. Feeling compelled to safeguard their interests, neighboring
countries also got involved in the brawl. Even now, when a coalition government exists
there with the backing of international alliance since the fall of Taliban regime in
December 2001, infighting is continuing – in one form or the other.
Volatile Central Asia: Global powers have always been lured by natural and energy
resources in Central Asia, but the balance of power during the Cold War enforced
peace in the region. Though there has been no direct confrontation for access to (or
control of) these resources after the Soviet disintegration, but the extraordinary interest
of local and global powers in the region gave rise to strife that, in turn, plunged the
whole region into the throes of instability. This has also been an important factor behind
Afghan imbroglio for most of the last decade.
Kashmir Issue: This issue has been a major bone of contention between Pakistan and
India since their independence in 1947. The two countries have fought three wars
against each other, while the struggle for attaining the right of self-determination, which
was being carried out peacefully in the political arena, has been transformed into an
armed resistance movement for the last 14 years. Tension between the two countries is
unlikely to diminish without an amicable resolution of the conflict.
Terrorism/Extremism: Though terrorism and extremist tendencies are global issues, not
restricted to any particular region, but they assume sensitive proportions in this region in
view of the prolonging turmoil in Afghanistan. The policies adopted by global powers
during the war and infighting for the last 30 years to ensure their interests have
produced in the region trained and organized armed groups who are ready to go to any
extent to achieve their goals. The underground network of these groups is a threat not
only to regional peace but also a menace to world security.
Hegemonic Designs: It is inevitable for peace and security of the region that all
countries in it respect each other’s sovereignty and freedom. Viewed in this perspective,
along with the above-mentioned conflicts and concerns, it becomes clear that India’s
role has always reflected hegemonic designs in the region. Even at present, India is
busy in arms buildup. Though its preparations appear to be aimed at Pakistan, the fact
is that they are not ‘Pakistan specific’. Moreover, India’s attitude towards all of its
neighbors reflects its hegemonic plans. To ensure peace and stability in the region in
the presence of hegemonic designs of a big country has been a really big challenge.
Post-9/11 Developments in the Region: Along with this historical situation in the region,
the post-9/11 situations and its effects also merit serious attention:
The US Presence: In the wake of the US military action against Afghanistan after
accusing it of harboring terror suspects, the region has seen major policy shifts and
unprecedented developments. Though the situation is still highly volatile, a radical
change has taken place in that US bases and troops are very much present not only in
Afghanistan but also in its neighboring countries. Never before, the US forces had come
in the region in such large numbers. Moreover, the Bush administration has made it
clear that the US forces are to stay in the region for a long period.
Bonn Process: The coalition government in Kabul, established under the Bonn
Agreement, is completing its two years in power. Yet, there has been no significant
improvement in the stability, and law and order situation in the country. The government
that was established under the Bonn Agreement ostensibly consisted of all ethnic
groups of Afghanistan, but the fact was that its writ could not be enforced in much of the
country, beyond the capital of Kabul, because of less than warranted representation of
Pashtuns in it. The International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) too, could not move
beyond Kabul. Because of lack of funds, which the international community had pledged
for re-building the country, development projects have hit snags.
The real challenge in Afghanistan was about disarming numerous Militias and to form a
regular army. But quite opposite is happening there: in actual practice, it is the warlords
who are ruling the country, each with his own fiefdom in the country beyond its capital.
The situation is almost identical to the one that prevailed in 1992-95/96, and in many
places the same people are running the administration who were ruling before the
advent of the Taliban. There are also reports of renewed contacts by the US or Afghan
government with some Taliban leaders. This adds to the complexity of the situation.
Opium production and drug trafficking had come to a grinding halt by the year 2000
during the Taliban rule, but it has now once again reached its previous peak positions.
Though drug production or trafficking is not directly linked with the security situation, it is
not difficult to comprehend that drug business gives boost to international mafia and
criminals in an entire region.
In brief, the situation in Afghanistan has not improved and the lot of the common Afghan
has not changed in any significant way. Pakistan has been fully participating in the so-
called war against terrorism and has arranged for stringent monitoring and surveillance
on its borders in spite of public reservations and suspicions as well as historical, cultural
and geographical links with Afghanistan. Doing its bid, it is still faced with the danger of
spillover of Afghan crisis and instability there.
In this situation of confusion and anarchy, the possible resurrection of Taliban and
regrouping of Al-Qaida should not surprise anyone. In the lingering crisis, even the
governments and forces in the region that are though included in the Coalition would
feel compelled to secure their own respective interests in the region. So, an end to
confusion and instability should be considered an important target in any strategy for the
region.
Pressure on Iran: The establishment of a Northern Alliance-dominated government in
post-Taliban Afghanistan was a development Iran could derive satisfaction from, as it
had good relations with the Alliance, yet what intrigues Iran is that this government has
come into being in the wake of the US invasion and is a cause of growing US influence.
In the face of the US pressure Iran is feeling now, for scores of reasons, it would try its
best to avoid diplomatic isolation along with safeguarding its ideological and economic
interests. Perhaps this also explains why Iran has assented to international inspection of
its nuclear installations. Since American presence in Afghanistan and Iraq poses
serious problems for Iran, it would naturally look towards establishing more cordial
relations with its neighbors.
India Factor: India is a big country in the region. Its security policy has greatly depended
on its relations with Pakistan and, to a significant extent, with China. In the post-9/11
situation, India tried to offer its services to the United States and get Pakistan declared
as a target of the US war against terrorism. It, however, could not succeed in its bid. It
simultaneously tried to link the on-going freedom movement in its part of Jammu and
Kashmir with terrorism. Though it could not succeed in this either, it has somewhat
succeeded in increasing diplomatic pressure on Pakistan in this regard. At another front,
Indian attempt has been to liken its Kashmir problem with the situation in Xinjiang. This
is shrewd but false analogy. It is aimed at playing up Chinese sensitivities, but China is
unlikely to fall prey to such tactics. In the meanwhile, the establishment of a government
in Afghanistan that is largely composed of pro-India elements goes to benefit India,
which, in spite of not being a contiguous neighbor, has tried to increase its influence in
the country on a wide-scale. India does not want good relations between Pakistan and
Afghanistan; rather it seeks continuation and aggravation of strife between the two over
borders demarcation and related issues. It would not view with ease any possibility of
enhanced cooperation between China, Central Asian states, Afghanistan and Pakistan.
China and India: Yet another target before India is to emerge as a big power in the
region against China. Acquiring a permanent seat in the UN Security Council is also one
of its long-term targets. In this backdrop, it is, on the one hand, interested in developing
its diplomatic and trade relations with China, and, on the other, it is also busy in
strengthening particularly its defense and military ties with the United States. In the
latter, it is also getting cooperation from Israel. India and Israel have only recently
signed six agreements (September 2003), running into billions of dollars, related to the
sale of military equipment and development of modern war technology. Though India’s
nuclear and missile program lags far behind that of China’s, but India is gradually
closing the gap. Its Agni III missile is capable of targeting many major Chinese cities. Its
Sagarica missile program is also on, it can be launched from sub-marine. Then, India is
also trying to enjoy an edge in conventional arms, as well. The recent efforts at
acquiring AWACS from Israel among others are part of the larger plan. Here, it is
pertinent to recall that Israel had earlier failed to get US permission to sell its AWACS to
China. India’s amassing of conventional and non-conventional weapons, its increasing
cooperation with the United States and Israel are in no way going to help stabilize
situation in the region.
Central Asia Cauldron: Central Asian states have direct and natural links with China,
Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran and Russia. Because of Russia’s long-term interests here,
its resistance to the US role and influence would be quite natural. But, at least for now,
the US is facing no problems from Russia, especially because of Russia’s increased
reliance
on America for its own economic well-being. However, Russia would not like to be
‘expelled’ from the area where it has its own influence for the last about 200 years. This
is particularly so as these countries still depend on the Russian army for the protection
of their borders and oil lines.
Central Asian states have not yet played any significant role in the region or in global
politics. They, however, have ethnic, cultural and historical relations with Afghanistan,
and cannot ignore developments in this country. On the other hand, they are still
passing through a transitional phase since gaining independence after the fall of the
Soviet empire. Almost in all the states, rulers are from the Soviet era. Their political,
societal, and economic structures are still in the ‘nascent’ phase, while they depend on
Russia on many fronts. As long as internal weakness and instability exists there, crimes,
drugs, and corruption would not be checked successfully. The instability and weakness
in the government structure, on the one hand, and existence of energy and other natural
resources in the region, on the other, have attracted attention of the entire world,
particularly of the US, towards it.
As for Russia, it is faced with uprisings in Chechnya and Abkahzia etc. It is, therefore,
interested in elimination of ‘extremist’ struggles from the region, and taking interest in
the so-called war against terrorism. However, if the war against terrorism lingers on in
Afghanistan, and the United States tries to get strong foothold in the region, then it
would
certainly be very difficult for Russia to put up with it, as it would then feel concerned
about its interests in Central Asia.
America sees in China a big obstacle in the way of its interests in the region. China’s
borders are common with three Central Asian states, and along with its relations with
them, China wants to ensure peace here. India, though not directly linked with Central
Asia, has considerable influence in states here owing to its good relations with Russia.
Moreover, in its rivalry with Pakistan, it wants to further expand them. Iran has strong
historical and cultural bonds as well as geographic links in the region. It also has a claim
on the natural resources in the Caspian. Similar is the case with Turkey who has had
historical, ethnic and cultural bonds with the Central Asian states and wants to revive its
political and trade links in the region. Thus, this region has become an abode of political
and economic struggle between so many, and at times, conflicting interests of
competing countries. This situation poses a potentially grave threat to security in the
region.
The US and China: There is no doubt that in the present circumstances America enjoys
an edge over all others in political, economic and technological spheres, and that it
wants to maintain its supremacy at all costs. But, while it faces no direct challenge from
any single country in the present global political arena, it feels that China stands out
among the countries that can challenge its supremacy in the future. Yet, its economic
stakes with China are increasing with the passage of time. Clearly, it does not want to
be on a collision course with China, but for the success of its designs in the region as
well as at the global level, it certainly wants to besiege China so as to increase pressure
on it in the event of some extraordinary development. This has been an important factor
in the growing US-India relations.
The US, India, Israel nexus: The neocons, who are presently ruling the United States,
have introduced a new concept of ‘pre-emptive strike’ against ‘perceived’ enemy or
threat. By this they, in fact, want to maintain their domination and obliterate any
challenge to it. Obviously, such posturing has imperiled world peace and security. The
neocons have embarked upon a policy to establish a new imperial system in the world,
which allows use of force for ensuring US control of the existing and known natural
(particularly energy) resources and their transportation routes in the world. To
accomplish this task, the US has chosen India and Israel as its strategic partners; and
the mounting of pressure on Syria, Iran and Saudi Arabia after the occupation of
Afghanistan and Iraq is in line with the US plans.
Under the scheme, Israel would play its role in the Middle East and the Gulf, while India
would be playing the same role in South and Central Asia. Much of the progress in
relations between the US and India has been in this backdrop. Their defense ties have
especially increased. One of the signs of these growing relations, which in itself is quite
an important development, is that India and Israel, too, are expanding their ties and
increasing cooperation in defense and military matters. Though the growing amity
between the US, India and Israel should not necessarily be viewed from the religious
prism, but it is difficult to ignore that neocons are in power in the US, Hindu
fundamentalists are ruling in India, and Jew extremists led by Mr. Ariel Sharon (and
belonging to the Likud Party) are calling shots in Israel. This all has something uncanny
about it!
Global Scenario: Apart from the region’s own circumstances and prevalent situation, the
unfolding global situation after the 9/11 is also very important with respect to the
security in the region.
Challenge to International System: Though the US actions have been severely
criticized, criticism and protests could not in any significant way alter the US policy or
course of action. The public all over the world expressed its opposition to the US
invasion of Iraq and big protests were organized, but the US government went its way. It
totally ignored the UN, but the international community could do nothing except
recording its verbal protest. The reasons that were given to justify military action against
Iraq turned out to be false, but there is no credible system in sight where ‘wielders of
mass deception’ could be brought to account for their misdemeanors and misleading
their own people.
Taking cue from such instances, Israel embarked upon even more brutal use of force
against innocent Palestinians, ignoring every sane voice. Far from checking the rise in
violence, the UN Security Council appears helpless in the face of the US veto. Thus
“might is right” is the rule of the jungle we have made of this world. This situation has
generated anxiety, frustration and anger among the people of the affected areas, which,
in turn, have given rise to extremist trends and incidents. However, Security Council by
not sanctioning US attack and insisting for UN mandated plan has rekindled hopes for
survival of the institution. Moreover, the ensuing crisis in Iraq has once again highlighted
the inevitability of international institutions like the United Nations.
There is now greater need, more than ever, to have a more effective United Nations
working towards its objective of preventing war and ensuring peace. There might be a
need for restructuring the UN, but this cannot be helped by bypassing it and ignoring its
role, whatever it is. The United Nations Organization had been established to avoid war
and maintain peace, and though it has rendered great services in some cases in the
past, the impression that has gained roots is that this institution has failed in amicable
and durable resolution of conflicts, that there is an in-built flaw in its structure whereby
big powers have veto power to use to promote their own interests. While the veto power
during the Cold War and its attending balance of power was used by both sides to
neutralize each other’s moves, the way the US is abusing the veto and using the UN for
its own ends is harmful to the institution. Thus, the whole security system of the world is
crumbling.
China’s Comprehensive Development Policy: China is a fast emerging global power.
Yet, in sharp contrast with other powers, it has demonstrated no hegemonic designs.
With a firm commitment to comprehensive and all-round development, China has
registered fast and sustained economic growth. China’s foremost objective is to sustain
the growth and the growth rate. It is needless to say that peace and stability in the
region is a must for this end. Central Asian states and Afghanistan are China’s
neighbors. So, it desires for stability and peace in these areas. It is also interested in
accessing the energy resources lying here through pipelines. Then, China, Central Asia,
Afghanistan and Pakistan are linked by the traditional trade route. Revitalization of this
route in the wake of peace and stability in the region would be extremely beneficial for
all these countries.
China is faced with separatist movement in its border areas, particularly in Xinjiang. It
justifiably fears that under-ground elements are fanning this separatist movement. In
this situation, China has supported the war against terrorism, and wants it to succeed in
its declared objectives, though there is evidence of US backing of the separatist
sentiment in Xinjiang. Thus, the US presence and influence in the region in particular
and in Central Asia in general can create problems for China.
A Futuristic Strategy: In view of the regional situation and the impact of developments at
the global level, a proper strategy for security in the region should focus on the following
facts.
 There should be no doubt that the region has been in the throes of instability
because of mutual conflicts between the states of the region as well as because of the
proxy wars of global powers. This region is one of the most backward areas in the
world, in terms of development of human resources. It is, therefore, necessary to give
attention to economic and social development.
 In the present day world, which has shrunk to a global village, stability is
impossible to achieve without preventing and eliminating the danger of aggression from
any country. Adoption of a common strategy for meeting the challenge of hegemonic
designs, whether at regional or global level, is becoming inevitable. China and Pakistan
have exhibited exemplary cooperation in this regard. Maintaining these good relations
and keeping the level of cooperation high, efforts should be made to include other
countries of the region in any such scheme of mutual cooperation and working together.
It is pertinent to note here that relations between Pakistan and Russia have improved
during the last few years, while the relationship between China and Russia has become
stronger. The need is to come up with a common vision and a scheme for joint actions,
taking along the Central Asian states.
 Instability in Afghanistan gives rise to instability in the whole region, besides
being an obstacle in the way of full use of resources in the region for economic
development. No doubt, this is a formidable challenge and interests of different
countries even conflict with each other, at times, the common destiny requires that
Afghanistan’s neighbors should increase mutual consultations and contacts and find out
some common strategy. It should not be forgotten that instability in Afghanistan is
exploited by the outsiders for their own intervention and presence in the region.
 A review of the defense capabilities and technological development of the
countries in the region establishes that India’s efforts about acquiring latest,
sophisticated military equipment along with developing its own nuclear and missile
programs have Pakistan as their first target, and China as the second. However,
defense strategies of both the countries and their close relations have prevented it from
committing any aggression. It is necessary to keep a check on India’s growing war
capabilities.
 Besides the hegemonic designs of India, the prolonged Kashmir issue between
India and Pakistan poses a grave threat to regional security. Because of deep public
emotions on both sides, the two countries cannot resolve the issue by themselves. All
bilateral efforts have invariably failed to produce any tangible results, let alone a lasting
solution of the contentious issue. It is, therefore, inevitable for the international
community and the neighbors to play their role and try to enforce a judicious solution to
it for the sake of peace in the region. Being a major country in the region as well as
being a neighbor of both Pakistan and India, China can play a role in diffusing tension
between Pakistan and India. It can play a better role than any ‘outside’ power.
Obviously, no outside country can be as sincere in, or in as much need of, peace in the
region as those situated here.
 Along with the Kashmir issue, the question of Palestine and other problems are
symbols of injustices committed in the past, yet they are victims of indifference of the
international community and institutions. Continued insensitivity of the international
community has turned political movements in these areas into armed struggles, which,
in return, has led to an unending chain of violence and counterviolence. Doubts and
suspicions over the US-led war against terrorism carry weight: that it is more about
serving self-interests rather than elimination of terrorism, that this war has in fact
increased the dangers to world peace. Lest these suspicions come true and the
situation get further aggravated, the need is to make international institutions stronger
and more effective. Along with recognizing movements for right of self-determination
and distinguish between freedom struggle and terrorism, these institutions should be
able to resist the US unilateralism and the US approach of bypassing international law
and norms. Otherwise, wide-spread anger and frustration would feed those who can go
to any extent of use of force for achieving their ends.
 While terrorism is being condemned everywhere, proper attention has not been
paid to its causes. Terrorist activities in which a human beings sacrifice their lives
indicate to the height of frustration. This frustration is there among the Muslim masses
because their genuine freedom struggles are being suppressed by repressive regimes,
on the one hand, while, on the other, their leaderships do not represent their
sentiments, nor do international institutions and powers exhibit any judicious approach
or inclination in solving their problems.
Pak-China Institutional Collaboration: Continued strategic dialogue between China and
Pakistan on security and defense issues at both governmental and institutional levels
would greatly contribute to maintaining peace in the region. For this purpose, panel of
experts should be formed. An enhanced level of interaction between the two countries,
which have historically enjoyed exemplary relations, would also promote the idea of joint
strategy for regional peace. Similarly, joint military exercises on regular basis and
collaboration in R&D along with the continued sharing military know-how and
technology would enable the two to face emerging challenges and ward off threats
together and thus ensure peace in the region.
Economic and Trade Cooperation
The trend of closer regional ties, particularly closer cooperation in economic and trade
fields, is fast emerging in the changing international situation. The nations living in
different parts of the world are enhancing their relation with their neighbors in a way in
which they not only learn from one another’s experiences but where benefits of
economic development can also be transferred and result in overall regional
development. European Union is a significant example in this regard. Similarly, the
increasing cooperation between South East Asian countries from the forum of (ASEAN)
is bringing stability and prosperity in that region.
Need for Regional Cooperation: Despite their deep and strong bilateral relations,
Pakistan and China, however, do not join at any regional forum. Moreover, the forums
that exist for regional cooperation are not effective for certain reasons. Pakistan-India
tension continuing for years has made SAARC ineffective. Similarly, fighting and
continued instability in Afghanistan for over two decades is an obstacle in the way of an
effective role of ECO, in spite of its expansion. Due to lack of cooperation at the regional
level, the people of all the countries of the region as a whole are facing deprivation and
poverty. According to estimates, over 650 million people in the region are living below
the poverty line. Though China has been successful in bringing poverty to 10 per cent,
the situation is highly alarming in neighboring countries like Kyrgystan, Tajikistan, and
Azerbaijan where it is 55, 60 and 49 per cent, respectively. In Pakistan and India, more
than one-third are living below the poverty line. All these countries are considered poor
by per capita income yardstick as well. Moreover, the people of this region are living a
difficult life with respect to the availability of social services. While there is a host of
internal reasons within each country, one of the main and common reason for this
dismal economic situation is that the economies of these countries are caught in the
debt trap. Every year a big part of national resources goes into servicing of debt and
interest. Adding to this, these countries always feel unable to resist unreasonable
conditionalities of creditors and international institutions, which results in further
increasing the deprivation of their people. This situation can be considerably improved
by coming together of the countries of the region in evolving common strategies and
ensuring enhanced economic cooperation. Vast opportunities exist for cooperation
between Pakistan, China and other neighboring countries at the regional level
Resources and Potential: The region is rich in natural resources. This can be estimated
from the following facts:
 Central Asia is rich in oil and natural gas reserves. According to estimates, 200
billion barrels of crude oil, i.e. one fourth of the world’s total, are present in countries
lying on the coasts of Caspian Sea. Similarly, natural gas is also present in vast
quantities in these countries. There are also huge oil and gas reserves in nearby Iran.
 Countries of the region are also rich in minerals like gold, copper and costly
gemstones. Some 171 minerals have so far been discovered only in China, which
account for about 12 per cent of the world’s total.
 All the countries of this region have fertile agricultural land. Moreover, Pakistan
and India have one of the best irrigation systems. The region is capable of not only
attaining self-sufficiency in edible products but can also earn foreign exchange by
exporting them.
Not only the abundance of these natural resources provides a comprehensive
opportunity for closer economic and trade cooperation between the countries of the
region but the deprivation of their people increases the need for concerted cooperation
at regional level. The present situation of economic cooperation between the countries
of the region is not encouraging. In particular, the volume of trade between Pakistan
and China, the two countries that are regarded as strong allies and friend at the
international level on strategic and foreign policy matters, is nominal. According to the
latest statistics, Pak-China trade has only recently reached $1.8 billion annually,
whereas China’s international trade has exceeded $620 billion.
The Globalization aspect: The failure of the recently held fifth ministerial conference of
the World Trade Organization (WTO) in the Mexican city of Cancun has put the future of
multilateral trade at risk. The apprehension is that the nations that dominate world trade,
like the United States and the European Union, may revert back from multilateralism to
bilateralism and then, to regionalism in a bid to secure their own interests. The changing
situation demands from China, Pakistan, Central Asian states, and other neighboring
countries to take measures for promotion of economic and trade cooperation so that
their dependence on the outer world is decreased and the deprived people could benefit
from prosperity.
Recommendations: The following suggestions are made in this regard:
 In recent years, China has made enviable progress in economic and financial
areas and, therefore, enjoys great importance in world economy. While the Chinese
products and technology have flooded the world markets, other countries of the region
are still dependent on Western countries in the fields of technology. By transferring
technology to these countries, China can not only earn foreign exchange but can give a
boost to economic development in these countries, which in turn goes to benefit the
entire region.
 Many Chinese companies are investing throughout the world. Chinese investors
should invest in their neighboring countries where low level of economic development
also owes to very small foreign direct investment (FDI). These countries, too, should try
to make their laws more attractive for Chinese investment.
 It is necessary for the promotion of regional cooperation in trade that all the
countries give importance to marketing each other’s products, so as to introduce them.
Exhibitions and fairs should be organized at regional level for this purpose, and
participation of traders and industrialists should be ensured.
 There is a dire need to improve the existing land and air travel facilities between
China, Pakistan, Central Asia and other countries of the region. The need is to fully use
the historical Silk Route (Karakorum Highway), which remains closed for almost half of
the year. All available means and resources should be exploited to devise a plan to
keep this route open for the maximum period of the year.
 Without the provision of banking facilities, it is impossible to think about
expansion in economic and trade cooperation in today’s world. But, banking links are
very few between the countries of the region. In addition to opening the branches of
national banks, China, Pakistan and other countries should also study the establishment
of a common bank or financial institution.
 The implementation from October 2003 of an agreement on transit traffic
between China, Pakistan, Kyrghyzstan, and Kazakhstan is a good omen. It is, however,
pertinent to note that this agreement had been signed in 1995, but could not be
implemented for eight years for petty matters like route-permit and transit fees, etc.
Such slow pace impedes regional cooperation and must be curbed in future. Now, the
need is to make this agreement really effective, besides considering its expansion for
the benefit of other landlocked countries like Afghanistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan.
 To exploit the energy resources in the Central Asia, particularly in Kazakhstan
and Turkmenistan, developed countries are not only strengthening the network of their
multinational companies for exploration of these resources. They are also trying to
make such routes for easy access to these resources which could serve their long-term
goals as well. China’s stewardship in this regard is the need of the hour. Chinese
investors have an opportunity here to flow their money in this direction. Though Western
countries have an edge in the oil exploration technology, yet joint ventures and
investment with Western countries can be entered into to share in the benefits and use
of these resources for the betterment of the people of the region. Afterwards, fast
developing Gawadar Port (which provides nearest port to these countries) can be
utilized. The need is to coordinate all efforts in this regard.
 The construction of gas line from Turkmenistan to Pakistan through Afghanistan
is in limbo because of the instability in Afghanistan. This gas line can also go further into
India. This underscores the need of peace and stability in Afghanistan for better use of
vast energy reserves of Central Asia, besides the development of Afghanistan itself.
 China’s northern province of Xinjiag has common borders with eight countries,
providing vast opportunities to China for extensive trade with these countries. Since
1967, there existed a trade agreement between China and Pakistan, but it ended in
2000. It aimed at enabling the people of Xinjang and Pakistan’s Northern Areas to meet
their needs from areas across the borders without being dependent on the far-off
economic hubs of their respective countries. The need is to not only revive this
agreement but also expand the area of its jurisdiction and inclusion of more trade items
in it. Other countries, too, should move in this direction through either bilateral
agreements or regional arrangements.
 Afghanistan is in the throes of anarchy and destruction for the last about 30
years. An amount of $15 billion has been announced for its reconstruction and
development. This process is slow as well as dominated by Western companies. There
is an opportunity here to promote regional cooperation, for which China, Pakistan, and
Iran should especially come forward to devise a common strategy.
 The decisions of international financial institutions (IFIs) and World Trade
Organization (WTO) do not much keep in view the interests of the developing countries.
Countries in the region should evolve common strategies at these forums to protect
their own interests.
 Pakistan provides nearest approach to the Arabian Sea to the states of Central
Asia, while Afghanistan is already benefiting from Pakistani harbor. Pakistan, along with
Iran, provides way to Central Asian countries for their world trade.
Conclusion
China and Pakistan have signed eight agreements during President Pervez Musharraf’s
recent visit to China. The most important is about preferential trade between the two
countries: China would give concession in tariff on 839 items to Pakistan while Pakistan
would extend its concession to 200 Chinese items. This agreement would not only
strengthen economic ties, but would also help in establishing a better trade balance
between China and Pakistan. Other countries of the region should also move forward
for preferential trade between them. There is a growing realization among the Asian
countries of the importance of joint efforts and common strategies for collective benefit.
It is a good sign. The second annual Boao Asia Forum Conference, held in China’s
southern province of Hunnan, also holds great promise in this regard. Pakistan’s
President in his address stressed on the need of chalking out comprehensive plan for
Asia’s development. He also enumerated obstacles in the realization of this vision. The
situation of security and law and order tops these obstacles. Similarly, referring to
China’s economic achievements as an example to emulate and a guarantee for stability
in Asia, he also highlighted the importance of enhanced cooperation between China and
the countries of the region, particular in transfer of technology. Chinese Premier Wun
Jiabao asked for higher level of cooperation between Asian countries for economic
development. The participating heads of states and governments of the conference
concurred with these observations as they all realize the importance of greater
cooperation. The need is to not only maintain the momentum but boost it up further so
that the goal of real and comprehensive development in the region is realized.
At the intellectual level, Chinese Association for International Understanding (CAFIU)
and Institute of Policy Studies can greatly facilitate such an enhanced level of
interaction between the two countries by organizing seminars, workshops and other
forms of interaction between the scholars, researchers and policy-analysts of both
sides. To begin with, it is proposed that the two institutions shall prepare a review of the
security situation every six months. It could be a joint study, but if two studies are
conducted separately, they could be exchanged for better mutual understanding.
Similarly, the two institutions shall organize conferences, say, one in two years,
alternately in China and Pakistan.
The author is grateful to Mr. Erfan Shahzad of IPS for his help and support in finalizing
this part of the paper.

Rise of China: Implications for Pakistan

Keeping Pakistan‘s robust relations with China in view,
there is a need to analyse the rise of China and the possible
repercussions it might have for Pakistan both in terms of
opportunities as well as challenges. The paper critically
examines the positive and negative aspects of the
implications for Pakistan. It dispels the impression that with
China‘s rapprochement with India, the salient interests of
China in Pakistan would be undermined. The geostrategic
and geo-economic importance of Pakistan in the region in
this context relating to stability in Afghanistan, the
Pakistan-China economic corridor project and the issue of
countering extremism and terrorism are cited as factors
ensuring sustainability of Pak-China ties.
Key Words: Rise of China, Pakistan-China Relations, Sino-Indian
Rapprochement, Gwadar Port, Pakistan-China Economic Corridor.

Introduction
The emergence of China and Russia on the world scene as powers that
matter beside the US has made the world multi-polar and this fact is
already having an impact on the structure of international relations.
Scholars like John J. Mearsheimer claim that ―the world is in fact
multi-polar today arguing that in a multi-polar order power does not need to
be symmetrical‖. He argues that the US is far stronger and the only power
that has the ability to project its power on a global scale but the new
potential poles — China and Russia, have shown an increasing ability to
project power in their regions. Samuel Huntington coined the term ‗unimultipolarity‘
which reflects this asymmetry in international relations.
Signs of rising powers and their new assertiveness in international relations
are already apparent. China and Russia openly oppose US positions on
certain issues in the UN Security Council. Its most recent example is their
opposition to intervention in Syria. India and Brazil defied the US in the

 Research Fellow, Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI), Islamabad.

TIPRI Insight 11
Doha trade talks in 2008 and Russia certainly showed its muscle in dealing
with Georgia.1 The recent accession of Crimea to Russia in the face of
Western opposition and Russia‘s insistence on the inclusion of Ukraine in
the Moscow-led Customs Union (CU) demonstrate how the world‘s
erstwhile uni-polarity is being diluted by the emerging powers.
Keeping in view Pakistan‘s robust relations with China, there is a
need to analyse the prospects of the rise of China and its possible
repercussions on Pakistan in terms of opportunities and challenges. The
paper takes into account the ongoing debate on the rise of China, and
critically examines its implications for Pakistan, both positive and negative.
In the end, it discusses some ground realities to dispel the impression that
with China‘s rapprochement with India, the salient interests of China in
Pakistan would lose their importance and Pakistan‘s role would be reduced
to the position of a second or third tier supporter. The paper concludes that
in spite of Sino-Indian rapprochement, Pakistan‘s strategic value for China
would suffer no decline as Pakistan has a regional importance of its own
particularly in relation to stability in Afghanistan, long gestation major
projects like China-Pakistan Economic corridor, and the fight against the
forces of extremism and terrorism
Rise of China
China has been the world‘s fastest-growing major economy for many years;
it is now the world‘s second largest economy after the US, the largest
exporter, and the second largest importer of goods. Analysts estimate that
China will carry on this course of 7-8 per cent annual growth for the next
twenty years or so. If real GDP in China and America continues to grow at
the same annual pace, China‘s volume of GDP would surpass America‘s in
2022. China‘s overall trade was close to US$ 3 trillion in 2010, with
exports and imports of US$ 1.6 trillion and 1.4 trillion, respectively
(International Monetary Fund, 2011). China‘s outward Foreign Direct
Investment (FDI) has also shown a marked increase in recent years; it was
US$ 68 billion in 2010.2
The sustained military, political and economic development of China
is increasingly viewed as the ‗Rise of China‘. The rapid pace at which

1
Fareed Zakaria, The Post-American World (New York and London: W.W. Norton
& Company, Inc., 2011), 4-5, cited in Ina Hjellet, NATO in a Multipolar World:
US Foreign Policy Discourse and the Future of NATO, Thesis, Faculty of
Humanities ,University of Oslo, Spring 2012,
https://www.duo.uio.no/bitstream/handle/10852/26229/HJELLETMASTER.pdf?sequence=2
(accessed May 14, 2014)
2
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, 2011.12 IPRI Insight
China has managed its societal transformation and enhanced its defence
spending to modernize its military capabilities, is cited by many as clear
evidence of its growing potential to challenge the US. ―This concern was
evident in the 2006 Quadrennial Defence Review, which cited China, of all
major and emerging powers, as having the ‗greatest potential to compete
militarily‘ with the US and highlighted China‘s ability to field military
technology ‗that could over time offset traditional US military advantages‘.
Besides China‘s general military capacity, the US has grown increasingly
concerned over Chinese nuclear ambitions. This was highlighted in the
2010 Nuclear Posture Review Report (NPRR) which cited China‘s
‗qualitative and quantitative modernisation‘ of its nuclear arsenal, as well as
―its relative lack of transparency, as significant factors in growing regional
and international anxiety‖.3
China‘s growing military strength is raising concerns in certain
quarters that in their perception relate to Beijing‘s regional aspirations and
claim that China ultimately wants to impose a ―Monroe Doctrine‖,
throughout East Asia, excluding non-regional powers.4 Not only China‘s
military advancement, its economic growth has also continued at an
unrivalled pace. The meteoric ascent of China‘s economy over the last 25
years has transformed the regional and international power dynamics.
Realists like Mearsheimer argue that if the rapid economic growth of China
continues over the coming decades, an intense security competition between
the US and China is likely to result, with a significant potential for war.5
China's rise is not without its troubles. The Asia-Pacific region has
been, and still is, largely a US-dominated part of the world. It is not
surprising then that China‘s rise, particularly its growing military power and
naval reach, is creating tensions in the region. Even more so because China
is not only claiming a number of islands and vast stretches of waters in the
South China Sea and East China Sea, but is actively taking measures to
assert these claims. It has an ongoing sovereignty dispute over a cluster of
rocky islets with Japan, which has brought the two countries close to naval
skirmishes having the potential to develop into a military conflict. Tensions
escalated recently when China declared ―an air defence identification zone‖

3
Department of Defence (DOD), Washington DC. Nuclear Posture Review 2010.
4
Philip Bowring, ―Washington Shores Up Its Strategic Assets in Asia,‖ New York
Times, August 2, 2010 http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/03/opinion/03ihtedbowring.html
(accessed August 5, 2010).
5
Neil Renic, ―‗Rising China‘: A Threat to International Security?‖ E-International
Relations Students, April 13, 2012,
http://www.e-ir.info/2012/04/13/rising-china-a-threat-to-international-security/IPRI Insight 13
over a vast swathe of the East China Sea over and around the disputed
islands, including some in the South Korean-claimed maritime zone.6
China‘s expanding economy, which has grown at an average of some
10 per cent of Gross National Product (GNP) annually during the past
thirty-odd years, has enabled it to become the new global power most
capable of challenging US primacy.7 Thus, in comparison to Russia, China
can more easily repress the major power centres in the Indo-Pacific while at
the same time more effectively prevent the United States from bringing
rearward reinforcements to bear in defence of its regional allies.8
As of now, China is militarily still behind the US. Therefore,
probably it would not be keen on a military conflict with the US and its
regional allies. However, with its growing economy, it has the capacity to
keep raising its defence expenditure every year to further modernise and
expand its military power. In the last couple of decades, its defence
expenditure has been rising at the rate of 10 per cent or more, with a 12.2
per cent rise this year, as announced by Premier Li Keqiang during his
annual work report to the National People‘s Congress (NPC). If such
increased allocation is maintained and/or increased and compounded,
China‘s defence budget might come close to the US‘s over a couple of
decades. At the same time, the US defence allocation is on a downward
trajectory because of its twin debt and deficit problems. At present, though,
the US defence budget of about $ 700 billion is way ahead of China‘s at
about $ 130 billion though China‘s official figure is regarded by many as a
gross underestimate.9
Though China is now an emerging superpower and might soon be at
par with the US, both countries would like to avoid an open conflict. What
China is seeking at present is to build up enough deterrence to make it
costly for the US to come in support of its regional allies.10
China which has become a major regional and global power can play
a crucial and constructive role in regional and global security. China has the
world's largest population, second largest economy, and it has become the
world‘s largest consumer of energy. The PRC also has the third largest
nuclear arsenal and numerically the largest army. Parallel to its dramatic

6
S.P. Seth, ―Turbulence Forecast for the Asia-Pacific,‖ Daily Times, March 12,
2014, http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/opinion/12-Mar-2014/turbulence-forecastfor-the-asia-
pacific
(accessed April 25, 2014).
7 Ashley J. Tellis, ―Balancing without Containment: An American Strategy to
Managing China,‖ Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, January 22,
2014, Carnegie Endowment.org/pubs (accessed April 26, 2014).
8
Ibid.
9
Ibid.
10 S.P. Seth, ―Turbulence Forecast for the Asia-Pacific,‖ Daily Times. 14 IPRI Insight
economic progress, China has begun to pursue a more active foreign policy;
its participation in global political and security debates, many of which
impact directly and indirectly on NATO security concerns, is increasing.11
Some analysts like Ashley J.Tellis, are suggesting new strategies to
America for managing China‘s rise by balancing its power without
containment. The containment strategy that the United States used to great
effect during the Cold War cannot succeed today. Cutting off ties with
Beijing and urging China‘s neighbours to do the same is politically,
economically, and practically unthinkable. By increasing the national power
of China‘s neighbours and by pursuing policies that simultaneously increase
China‘s stake in the existing global system, the United States can constrain
Beijing‘s behaviour and limit its capacity for aggressiveness.12
A middle range view finds it hard to believe that Chinese leaders
would devote top priority to marginalizing the US influence in Asia at a
time of major internal concerns to sustain economic growth and stability in
China. For some time, the Chinese leaders will need to maintain good
relations with the United States for the sake of China‘s economic
development and political stability — essential elements in keeping the
Communist Party rule in China. Chinese leaders muted their vocal public
opposition to the United States in Asia in mid-2001 in an effort to reduce
friction and improve relations with Bush administration.13
Notwithstanding the above view there is a general impression that
China is gradually rising and it is just a matter of time when it will
challenge the US dominance.

Implications for Pakistan

Pakistan and China‘s bilateral relations have stood the test of time. China
has always provided political, economic, humanitarian and diplomatic
support to Pakistan. What implications a rising China will have for Pakistan
are mostly positive but there are also challenges which both countries may
face. The US and Indian factors in China-Pakistan relations are very

11 Assen Agov, ―The Rise of China and Possible Implications for NATO,‖ General
Report, NATO Parliamentary Assembly, October 2011, http://www.natopa.int/default.asp?
SHORTCUT=2395,
(accessed April 10, 2014).
12 Ibid.
13 Robert G. Sutter, "Rise in Asia – Promises, Prospects and Implications for the
United States,‖ Asia-Pacific Centre for Security Studies, February 2005,
http://www.apcss.org/Publications/Ocasional%20Papers/OPChinasRise.pdf
(accessed April 19, 2014).IPRI Insight 15
important as intervening variables having both positive and negative
implications.
In order to understand these implications for Pakistan, it would be
useful to know how these relations have been described by leaders of the
two countries.
Mr. Zulfikar Ali Bhutto in his policy statement at the emergency
session of the National Assembly of Pakistan held on December 4, 1962
declared that:-
I should like to make it clear beyond all doubt that we have
friendly relations with the People‘s Republic of China and that
nothing will be permitted in any way to endanger those relations.
Our relations with China are an independent factor in our foreign
policy and not contingent on any other. In the best interests of
Pakistan, we shall maintain the spirit of goodwill, friendship and
cordiality with the great People‘s Republic of China. I declare that
our friendship with China is not tainted by any form of bargain or
barter. It is steadfast amity between two neighbouring Asian
States. 14
While addressing China-Pakistan Business Cooperation Conference
in Islamabad on April 6, 2005, Premier Wen Jiabao explained the basis of
cooperation between the two countries in these words:
The goal of our cooperation is to seek common development. The
economies of both countries enjoy strong complementarities.
Pakistan enjoys abundant resources. China possesses the applicable
technologies and development. China will actively encourage the
competitive enterprises to invest in Pakistan so as to achieve winwin
results and create more employment opportunities in local
areas.15
China‘s former President Hu Jintao, during his visit to Pakistan in
November 2006, described Pakistan and China as truly good neighbours,
close friends, trusted partners and dear brothers. He said:
―In recent years, China-Pakistan business ties have seen strong
growth, becoming an important driving force of our relations. The
Free Trade Agreement between China and Pakistan marks the

14 Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, Foreign Policy of Pakistan: A Compendium of Speeches

made in National Assembly of Pakistan 1962-64 (Karachi: Pakistan Institute of
International Affairs, 1964), 72, http://panhwar.com/Books_By_Sani/FOREIGNPOLICY-OF-
PAKISTAN.pdf
(accessed April 30, 2014).
15 Wen Jiabao Addresses ―China-Pakistan Business Cooperation Conference,‖
April 6, 2005, http://www.mfa.gov.cn/ce/celt/eng/xwdt/t191087.htm
(accessed April 30, 2014).16 IPRI Insight
success in the negotiations on establishing a free trade area. It will
go a long way in upgrading China-Pakistan business ties. The two
countries also signed the Five Year Development Programme on
Trade and Economic Cooperation — a blueprint for accelerating
their economic cooperation and trade in the future….China will
strengthen win-win cooperation with Pakistan in key areas such as
energy and resources development, information technology,
infrastructure and agriculture to give full play to our cooperative
strength‖.16
In the words of former President of Pakistan Mr. Asif Ali Zardari:
―Perhaps no relationship between two sovereign states is as unique
and durable as that between Pakistan and China. China is seen as a
true, time-tested and reliable friend that has always come through for
Pakistan. That the Pakistan-China friendship is higher than the peaks
of Himalayas is now a truism without exaggeration. It is a friendship
rooted in the hearts and minds of the people of the two countries‖.17
Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani, former Prime Minister of Pakistan, on the
occasion of the 60th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of
China on September 29, 2009 declared that:-
―Our close and friendly relations with China have been and will
remain the cornerstone of our foreign policy. We believe that our
friendship and cooperation will only gain in strength in the future,
fortified by our common resolve to imbue it with ever greater vigour
and vitality‖.18
From the above statements it can be gathered that:
a. Pakistan sees her relations with China as an independent factor
of her foreign policy. Further it is committed to her resolve that
nothing would be permitted in any way to endanger her
relations with China and friendship with China would not be
tainted by any form of bargain or barter.
b. The friendship between Pakistan and China is rooted in the
hearts and minds of the people of the two countries. Their
16 A statement given by President Hu Jintao in Islamabad on November 24, 2006
cited in an article, ―Pakistan-China Relations,‖ Embassy of Islamic Republic of
Pakistan in Beijing, China,
http://www.pakbj.org.pk/Bilateral_Relations (accessed May 13, 2014).
17 Asif Ali Zardari, ―Sino-Pakistan Relations Higher than Himalayas,‖ China Daily,
February 23, 2009, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/opinion/2009-02/23/content_
7501675.htm
18 ―Pakistan-China Relations,‖ Embassy of Islamic Republic of Pakistan in Beijing,
China, http://www.pakbj.org.pk/Bilateral_Relations (accessed May 13, 2014).IPRI Insight 17
cooperation is meant to seek common development and to
achieve win-win results for both countries.
c. The leadership on both sides believes that friendship and
cooperation between the two countries would gain further
strength in the future.
Positive Implications
Since Pakistan‘s relations with China are based on solid foundations of true
friendship, the rise of China would be a positive development in its favour.
As a global power her greater engagement in the region would be a stability
factor.
 Pakistan‘s Utility Value for China
The idealist concept of the harmony of interests is based on the notion that
human beings can rationally recognize that they have some interests in
common, and that cooperation is therefore possible.19 The same is true for
states. The global powers establish relations with other countries on the
basis of their utility value.
Pakistan‘s economic interdependence with China has grown rapidly
in the last decade — in 2010, the latter was Pakistan‘s second largest source
of imports and its fourth largest market for exports. Pakistan‘s exports to
China grew rapidly throughout the decade, with growth accelerating sharply
following the signing of a free trade agreement (FTA) in 2006. The average
annual export growth increased from 19 per cent between 2003 and 2006 to
26 per cent from 2007 to 2010.20 The two sides will speed up the second
phase of negotiations on China-Pakistan Free Trade Area and push forward
a balanced growth of trade between the two countries. The Chinese
government encourages Chinese enterprises to invest in Pakistan.21
China‘s development depends on its growing need for energy, an area
in which Pakistan can be useful as an energy corridor. At present, China is

19 ―Political Realism in International Relations,‖ Stanford Encyclopedia of

Philosophy, April 2, 2013, http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/realism-intl-relation
(accessed May 13, 2014).
20 Naved Hamid and Sarah Hayat, ―The Opportunities and Pitfalls of Pakistan‘s
Trade with China and Other Neighbors,‖ The Lahore Journal of Economics,
(September 2012): 271292,
http://121.52.153.179/JOURNAL/LJE_Vol_17SE_PDF/11%20Hamid%20ED%2
0ttc%2001102012.pdf
21 Lucy Woods, ―China to invest US$20 billion in Pakistan energy infrastructure,‖
February 21, 2014, http://www.pv-tech.org/news/china_to_invest_us20_
billion_in _pakistan_energy_infastructure18 IPRI Insight
importing most of its oil through the Indian Ocean and the Malacca Straits.
In the event of a conflict or a terrorist attack, the present routes for Chinese
oil imports could be disrupted, choking Beijing‘s energy supply, especially
at the vulnerable Malacca Straits. This is what Chinese President Hu Jintao
referred to as China‘s ―Malacca Dilemma‖ — the fear that China‘s
dependence on the flow of energy resources through narrow transport sea
lanes is a weakness that adversaries can exploit. In addition to the
vulnerable Malacca Straits, China has a territorial dispute with Japan,
Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, Vietnam, and Brunei in the South China
Sea. This further accentuates concerns about China‘s energy security.22

―The growth momentum of the China-Pakistan Strategic Cooperative

Partnership has become more and more powerful. Our two governments
have reached important consensus on planning and development of the
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. On the second meeting of joint
cooperation of CPEC, two sides have decided to expedite the building of
major projects in energy, infrastructure and economic development
zones.‖23
 Convergence of Interests in Regional Stability
Some scholars have analysed Pakistan and China relations in the regional
context. The latest upswing in Sino-Pakistan relations is due to strong
convergence of interests in regional stability. To attain a more balanced
economic growth, China is according priority to development of its
landlocked western regions, which have lagged behind its eastern and
coastal areas. Both countries are interested in stabilizing Afghanistan
through enhanced regional cooperation. Significantly, China recognizes
Pakistan‘s constructive role in facilitating an Afghan-led peace process.
Pakistan considers China‘s involvement in the region as a stability factor.
Dr. Maleeha Lodhi in her article ―China‘s regional strategy‖ explains the
importance of Pakistan-China economic corridor being at the heart of two
key aspects of China‘s Silk Road vision: maritime and land links. With
Gwadar providing China the shortest land route to the sea for commercial
traffic, connectivity with Pakistan is central to China‘s regional economic
strategy.24

22 ―Pakistan as an Energy Corridor for China,‖

IPRI Review 4/2012, Islamabad Policy Research Institute,
http://ipripak.org/pa/ipr4.pdf (accessed May 12, 2014).
23 ―China offers Pakistan all-out help to resolve energy crisis,‖ Daily Times, May
10, 2014, http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/national/10-May-2014/china-offerspakistan-all-out-
help-to-resolve-energy-crisis
24 Maleeha Lodhi, ―China‘s Regional Strategy,‖ News International, April 1, 2014.IPRI Insight
19
On his first visit to Pakistan last May, Prime Minister Li Keqiang proposed
the establishment of an economic corridor between the two countries,
connecting China‘s western Xinjiang region to Pakistan‘s Gwadar port.
This envisages greater connectivity and expansion of trade through a
network of road, rail, fibre optic cables and energy pipelines. The MOU on
this also provides for the creation of special economic zones, industrial
parks and trade centres and development of energy and technical
cooperation. This is the most concrete manifestation of an evolving joint
strategy that aims to align China‘s plans to develop its western region to
Pakistan‘s efforts to revive and develop its economy. 25
The planned economic corridor will incorporate a 2,000-kilometre
transport link between Kashgar in north-western China to the little-used
Gwadar port on the Arabian Sea near the border with Iran. That could at
some point include a railway and oil pipeline.26
 Energy Cooperation
China is well aware of energy crisis in Pakistan and Chinese scholars
suggest that Pakistan should not depend solely on the hydel projects for the
generation of electricity but should also look for alternative means of
energy production. Keeping in view Pakistan‘s huge untapped potential in
wind, solar, coal and nuclear energy, Chinese investors are taking keen
interest in these projects. China is the only country that has been
persistently helping Pakistan in the nuclear domain of power generation.
This cooperation would be more fruitful if it is expanded further with
transfer of technology relating to manufacturing of nuclear power
reactors.27

The good news is that China has agreed to invest US$ 20 billion in
Pakistan‘s energy infrastructure. The investment will go towards solar,
hydropower and coal power plants.28 Pakistan has signed a $6.5 billion
‗concessionary loan‘ agreement with China for projects under civil nuclear
cooperation, including development of two power plants near Karachi of
2,200MW.29

25 Ibid.
26 Lucy Woods, ―China to invest US$20 billion in Pakistan energy infrastructure,‖
February 21, 2014, http://www.pv-tech.org/news/china_to_invest_us20_billio
n_in_pakistan_energy_infastructure
27 ―Pakistan-China Relations,‖ IPRI Review: Document no. 5, Islamabad Policy
Research Institute, http://ipripak.org/pa/ipr5.pdf (accessed May 16, 2914).
28 Lucy Woods, ―China to invest US$20 billion in Pakistan energy infrastructure.‖
29 ―China to give $6.5bn concessional loan for N-plants,‖ Dawn, February 1, 2014,
http://www.dawn.com/news/1077819/china-to-give-65bn-concessional-loan-forn-plants20
IPRI Insight
With the signing of numerous new agreements Pakistan has become
the top destination for Chinese investment in South Asia. Nearly 200
projects of varying size are in place today while work is underway on 12
hydel power projects with Chinese help. Already there are 10,000 Chinese
nationals working on different projects in Pakistan. Security of Chinese
workers has, however, emerged as a challenge, which Islamabad must
address to accelerate different projects, some of which are designated as
‗early harvest‘ ones.30
 Gwadar Port in Balochistan
There is a realization both in Pakistan and China to speed up the work
required to make Gwadar port fully functional at the earliest by constructing
extensive and expensive rail and road links between Gwadar and western
China through the development of an economic and energy corridor. It has
been almost a year since a Chinese company took over the management and
operational control of the Gwadar port in Balochistan.
An agreement to develop the corridor during Prime Minister Nawaz
Sharif‘s visit to Beijing shortly after his return to power last summer had
reinforced hopes of an early start of work on this trade link. However, the
insurgency in Balochistan is thought by many to be a major hurdle in the
way of Chines investment in the development of the port. In its present
state, the initiative has the look of the classic example that shows a
government how not to attempt economic development in isolation of
politics and security. The political remedy that should have accompanied
the project has failed to materialise and without it progress remains elusive.
The equation is unchanged as a recent visit of a top China Overseas Port
Holding Company official to Gwadar signals the revival of Chinese interest
in the early development of the port.31
China is now said to have agreed to start implementing major
development projects in the area, including the expansion of the port itself
and to undertake the construction of an airport. In all, nine projects will be
executed at a cost of $1.8bn. Some Chinese companies have shown an
interest in developing and setting up oil and gas refineries in Gwadar. The
completion of the port will make Pakistan a major regional trade hub
connecting the landlocked Central Asia with the rest of the world through
Afghanistan and providing Beijing the shortest access to the Gulf and to
Iranian oil. It will bring in billions in foreign investment and benefit

30 Maleeha Lodhi, ―China‘s Regional Strategy.‖

31 ―Slow progress on Gwadar,‖ Dawn, March 15, 2014.IPRI Insight 21
millions of people in Balochistan and the rest of Pakistan. It will also
enhance connectivity between South Asia and East Asia.32
There is need to involve local workers for building of the economic
corridor as their participation in the projects will ensure security of the
projects. The socio-cultural aspects of local population should be given due
consideration.
 Extremism
Pakistan and China are reinforcing their close cooperation with both short
term and long term objectives by giving top priority to combat terrorism,
separatism and extremism. China supports and appreciates Pakistan‘s
efforts to fight terrorism; and has provided assistance to help Pakistan in its
war against militancy. This help has been in the form of diplomatic,
economic and military support. Rashid Ahmad Khan in his research paper
―Pakistan and China: cooperation in counter-terrorism‖ has discussed some
important questions: What are the short term and long term goals of
counter-terrorism strategies pursued by Pakistan and China? How is SinoPakistan
cooperation in counter-terrorism linked to regional integration and
economic development? How could counter-terrorism cooperation between
Islamabad and Beijing be more productive, effective and successful?33
Chinese Defence Minister General Chang Wanquan who visited
Pakistan and met with Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif on February 28, 2014
said that China and Pakistan shared a mutual concern — terrorism and
internal instability. The Chinese have great interest in how Pakistan handles
its internal problems of extremism and terrorism because of the links that
groups based in Pakistan have with other extremist groups in Xinjiang
province that has long been an area of unrest.34
With the Afghan conflict about to enter a new phase at the end of
2014 and the likely withdrawal of US and other foreign troops from there
by 2014, China will be viewing with considerable concern the prospect of
‗leakage‘ of conflict into its own territories. How Pakistan addresses its
internal difficulties is thus of keen interest to the Chinese, with the
expectation that their economic partner will address the problems of
militancy as enthusiastically as it has addressed the expansion of bilateral

32
Ibid.
33 Rashid Ahmad Khan, ―Pakistan and China: cooperation in counter-terrorism‖,
Strategic Studies 2013,
http://www.issi.org.pk/publication-files/1379479213_96964375.pdf
34 ―The China connection,‖ Editorial, Express Tribune, March 2, 2014,
http://tribune.com.pk/story/678048/the-china-connection/
(accessed May 7, 2014).22 IPRI Insight
trade. Pakistan awaits such developments with great interest as, no doubt,
do the Chinese.35
Negative Implications
India is trying to exploit the sensitivities of the US and other western
countries on Pakistan‘s role in the ‗war on terror‘. It is also trying to prove
to China that Pakistan‘s alleged support to Afghan Taliban and other
terrorists is also hurting China‘s commercial interests in Afghanistan and
creating instability in its Xinjiang Province. The US and western policy
makers, media persons and think tanks have also started reflecting
negatively on Pakistan on the issues relating to fighting the ‗war on terror‘
and its alleged double role in Afghanistan.36
For the last two years there has been a concerted campaign in the
Indian and Western media to undermine this relationship by blowing minor
issues out of proportion. Chinese aid volume during the 2010 super floods,
the pulling out of government owned Chinese bank from Iran-Pakistan
pipeline project, the 2011 terrorist attack in Xinjiang in which involvement
of Pakistani elements was pointed by China, the withholding of time
sensitive funds of Rs. 274 billion for the Neelum-Jhelum hydropower
project, on Indian pressure are cited as signs of the weakening ties.37
The India-China rivalry is particularly striking, featuring a heady mix
of factors: border disputes, China–Pakistan relations, maritime competition,
the India–US strategic partnership, allegations of support for insurgents (in
both directions) and Chinese dams in the Mekong, to name just a few.38
China is Pakistan‘s largest trade partner at the bilateral level. At the
regional tier, Pakistan is China‘s second largest trade partner in South Asia,
while India is the first. However, Pak-China bilateral trade suffers from an
imbalance. The term ―Chindia‖ has become well known to describe the
significance of relations between China and India. In 2000, the trade
volume between the two countries was as low as US$ 3 billion. But it
increased remarkably over the decade reaching US$ 80 billion. They have

35 Ibid
36 ―Pak-China ties under strain,‖ Pakistan Observer, December 21, 2012,
http://pakobserver.net/detailnews.asp?id=187918 (accessed April 28, 2014).
37 ―Pakistan-China Relations,‖ IPRI Review: Document no. 5.
38 Melissa Conley Tyler and Aakriti Bachhawat, ―The Politics of Self-interest Bind
India and China Together,‖ East Asia Forum, January 15, 2014,
http://www.eastasiaforum.org (accessed April 22, 2014).IPRI Insight 23
set the target of US$ 100 billion to be achieved by 2015.39 This economic
cooperation has the potential to result in strong political and strategic ties.
China‘s increasing relationship with India would have implications for
Pakistan.
The experts are of the view that China being a rising power would see
the world through the prism of its global interests. During the Cold War,
Pakistan was an important strategic partner for China in coping with India.
Today, China is trying to improve her relations with India so that USA
could not use it for her containment, whereas, Pakistan‘s importance for
China is just for her economic interests.
In reality, however, the Sino-Pakistan relationship falls short of the
lofty rhetoric. China tilts towards Pakistan in moments of geopolitical
convenience, but does not seek a robust relationship, much less a military
alliance. China has three main interests in Pakistan: preserving Pakistan as a
viable military competitor to India; using Pakistan as an overland trade and
energy corridor; and enlisting Pakistani cooperation in severing links
between Uighur separatists in western China and extremists in Pakistan.
These all remain salient interests for China, but they are declining in
importance and now constitute second-or third-tier interests in which China
only needs Pakistan to play a supporting role: China is more secure vis-avis
India today than at any time in its history and therefore has less need for
an alliance with Pakistan; Pakistan's political instability and the technical
challenges of building pipelines and railways over the mountains on the
Chinese-Pakistani border undermine Pakistan's potential to serve as a
Chinese trade and energy corridor; and China's success in suppressing
Uighur dissent, coupled with doubts among Chinese leaders about the
competence and commitment of Pakistani security forces, have reduced
China's interests in counterterrorism cooperation with Pakistan.‖40 This kind
of propaganda should be countered by presenting ground realities in
Pakistan-China relations.
Media reports about the presence of Uighur militants in the Federally
Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) is another irritant in the bilateral
relationship. While there are no precise figures as to how many Uighur
militants are present in Pakistan, it is unlikely that the actual number would

39 ―Indo-China strategic dialogue after 3 years; incursion to figure‖, DNA (India),

August 15, 2013, http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-indo-china-strategicdialogue-after-3-
years-incursion-to-figure-1874879
(accessed June 11, 2014).
40 Michael Beckley, ―China and Pakistan: Fair-Weather Friends,‖ Yale Journal of
International Affairs, vol. 7, issue 1 (March 2012),
http://yalejournal.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Article-Michael-Beckley.pdf,
(accessed May 13, 2014).24 IPRI Insight
be very high; it could not be more than a hundred. However Pak-China
cooperation in this regard continues.
Another irritant is the international propaganda against PakistanChina
friendship. Media, particularly Indian and Western, is full of reports
about small events, such as the protest against Zulfiqarabad mega city,
Gawadar port etc are highlighted as signs of anti-Chinese sentiments in
Pakistan. This concerted campaign is aimed at the younger generation in
China to malign Pakistan and thus weaken China- Pakistan relations.
Indian involvement in Afghanistan is harming Pakistan‘s core
interests. India is carrying out military, political and intelligence activities
under the cover of economic development. Pakistan needs to align its policy
with China to counterbalance Indian influence in Afghanistan. Pakistan and
China should form a joint strategy for ensuring a stable and viable
Afghanistan after the departure of the foreign forces. China‘s main interest
in Afghanistan is economic.
China is concerned about the security of the Chinese personnel
working on various projects in Pakistan. It would be in Pakistan‘s interest to
provide full security to Chinese working on various projects in Pakistan.
Bureaucratic red tape and handling stand in the way of speedy
execution of MoUs (Memorandum of Understanding) signed between the
two countries. There is a need to enhance understanding between the
officials on both sides through exchange of visits and training.
Ground Realities
There is no doubt that China has enhanced economic and political
cooperation with India but still there is mistrust between the countries.
Therefore, it will be wrong to predict that their economic cooperation would
result in strong strategic ties. Dr Hu Shisheng, Director, Institute of South
and Southeast Asian and Oceanic Studies at China Institutes for
Contemporary International Relations (CICIR) is of the view that with India
economic cooperation would be a priority, however, in terms of military
interactions, India would be kept at a distance, due to the existing mistrust
between the two countries. While discussing China‘s relation with Pakistan
he opined that Pakistan should not get the impression that China‘s
proximity with Afghanistan and India might diminish the warmth in
Pakistan-China ties. China was developing politico-economic ties with IPRI Insight 25
India and Afghanistan for regional stability, a prerequisite for the success of
Pakistan- China economic corridor.41
Mr.Kashif Ali (currently a DAAD scholar 2014 for Masters in Public
Policy and Good Governance in Germany), in his article ―Will China-India
relations dent Pak-China relations?‖, argues that unlike the Cold War
confrontation, China‘s rapprochement with India will not affect her
relationship with Pakistan because of her deep interests in Pakistan. Despite
China‘s growing relations with India, there are essentially three important
reasons that continue to sustain the Sino-Pak cordial relations. The first
rationale for China‘s continued friendship with Pakistan lies in the
significance of Pakistan in providing energy and trade corridor to China
through Gwadar port. Secondly, China at the moment is highly concerned
about regional stability in the post 2014 US drawdown of forces from
Afghanistan for which Pakistan‘s role would be critical. Thirdly, making
Pakistan a strong country is in China‘s own interests as strong and
prosperous Pakistan would be in a better position to fight extremism and
terrorism.42
The joint statement titled ―Deepening China-Pakistan Strategic and
Economic Cooperation‖ issued on the state visit of President Mamnoon
Hussain (Feb 18-21) included the following main points43:
 China appreciated Pakistan‘s consistent and staunch support on
issues relating to China‘s core interests and the sacrifices rendered
by the Pakistanis in fighting the global scourge of terrorism.
 Pakistan reiterated its support for China‘s efforts in combating
terrorism, extremism and separatism. Pakistan recognises the East
Turkistan Islamic Movement as a terrorist organisation which
poses a common threat to peace and stability in China and
Pakistan.
 Pakistan praised China‘s forthright position on Islamabad‘s
counter-terrorism strategy and efforts.

41 Hu Shisheng, ―China‘s Relations with Afghanistan and India and its Effects on
Pakistan‖ (paper presented at IPR-HSF International Conference on ―Pakistan‘s
Strategic Environment Post-2014,‖ Islamabad, Pakistan, June 28-29, 2014).
42 Kashif Ali, ―Will China-India relations dent Pak-China relations?‖ December 4,
2012, Express Tribune, http://blogs.tribune.com.pk/story/14568/will-china-indiarelations-dent-
pak-china-relations/
43 Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China, ―Joint Statement
between the People‘s Republic of China and the Islamic Republic of Pakistan on
Deepening China-Pakistan Strategic and Economic Cooperation,‖ February 19,
2014,
http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/wjdt_665385/2649_665393/t1130297.shtml
(accessed on May 7, 2014). 26 IPRI Insight
 Pakistan valued generous support of the people of China and their
government for the socio-economic development and projects of
national importance in Pakistan.
 China said it attached highest priority to its relationship with
Pakistan and was committed to deepening the strategic and
cooperative partnership with Islamabad.
 The two sides agreed to strive for more friendly political relations,
stronger economic bonds, deeper security cooperation and closer
people-to-people contacts and work together for the goal of
―China-Pakistan community of shared destiny‖.
 The two countries pledged to deepen cooperation in the existing
fields while exploring new avenues for practical collaboration in
line with the principles set forth in the treaty of friendship,
cooperation and good-neighbourly relations signed by them in
2005.
 Pakistan and China noted with satisfaction the progress made so
far in establishing institutional mechanisms that would support the
economic corridor. The Joint Cooperation Committee on the longterm
plan for the China-Pakistan economic corridor had been
activated while the working groups on planning, transport
infrastructure and energy held successful inaugural sessions.
 The two sides urged their relevant offices to expedite work on the
economic corridor aimed at developing economy, improving
people‘s livelihood and bringing benefits to regional development
and prosperity. They also agreed to fully implement the additional
agreement to extend the five-year development programme on
China-Pakistan trade and economic cooperation and the free trade
agreement. They agreed to work together to put the projects into
implementation.
The above discussion and the joint statement shows that Pakistan and China
are determined to further enhance their strategic cooperation and rise of
China is not only in the interest of Pakistan but also for the whole region.
Conclusion
Pakistan is very important for China as it helped end China's isolation and
even today it has a great strategic value for China. Pakistan‘s role is critical
not only for development of Western regions of China but also countering
extremism in Xinjiang. Pakistan is at the crossroads of the well-known Silk
Road between China and the West.IPRI Insight 27
China realizes Pakistan‘s importance in the region, and especially so
in the context of Afghanistan. China thinks that without Pakistan there can
be no durable peace in Afghanistan. Pakistan and China can play an active
role in national reconciliation in Afghanistan.
Pakistan needs to address issues which concern China. Beijing is
interested in promoting trade and investment in Pakistan; however lack of
infrastructure and energy crisis are major hurdles in this regard. These
impediments should be removed through a long term strategy. The people
to people contacts between the two countries need promotion so that the
younger generations on both sides value the bilateral relations as much as
the older generations did.
Rise of China and her rapprochement with India will not affect
Beijing‘s friendly relations with Islamabad due to various factors such as
geostrategic and geo-economic importance of Pakistan in the region in the
context of stability in Afghanistan, Pakistan-China economic corridor,
countering extremism and terrorism. 

China interest in Gwadar port

Outline

1. Introduction

2. Strategic location of Gwadar port

3. Economic significance
4. China’s Interest in Gwadar Port
5. Baloch reservations on Gwadar
6. Conclusion

Introduction
Gwadar Port is the third deep sea port in Pakistan after Karachi and Port Qasim.

Gwadar spread area 1.52 million hectares or 15,216 square km.

it‘s one of attractive coastal area of the region.

Gwadar is a district along the sea in south of

the Makran.

The coastline of Gwadar district is about 600 km long.

Gwadar was
notified as a district in July, 1977 with its Headquartering at Gwadar town.

Previously it‘s used to be a part of Makran district.

Gwadar is located on the southwestern coast of Pakistan, on the Arabian Sea.

It is strategically located
between three increasingly important regions: the oil-rich Middle East, heavily
populated South Asia and the economically emerging and resource-laden region of
Central Asia.

Coastal belt with beaches.

ECO highway, Coastal Highway and other

mega projects in road sectors will connect Gwadar free port with Central Asian
States Gulf States, China and rest of the country.

Gwadar port is the living symbol

of Pak-China relationship.

Geographical location of Gwadar has a significant

importance in the international trade routes.

Strategic location of Gwadar port

The strategic location of the newly constructed Gwadar port might be taken advantage of to
facilitate regional and international trade.

The city of Gwadar (located in the Baluchistan

province) is strategically located east of the Islamic republic of Iran and south of Afghanistan
and has a seaport that is located at the entrance of the Persian Gulf.

For Pakistan the economic

return from Gwadar port stems from its location near the Strait of Hormuz, a major conduit for
global oil supplies in the region Gwadar is of strategic importance to east and central Asia
(particularly Afghanistan and china) providing landlocked countries with access to the sea.

However Gwadar strategic location for facilitating regional trade and alleviating poverty has yet
to be fully capitalized to its greatest potential the development and usage of the port has stalled
because of a variety of issues ranging from a lack of infrastructure investment by the government
high costs of transport and absence of any significant industry in Baluchistan. Gwadar serves as
an important node for any Islamic republic of Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline that could be
developed. This could cross from the Iran to Pakistan‘s Baluchistan province. Government need
to have a long term vision of the development of this relatively news port sector. This occupies a
critical location in trade market.

Economic significance
Gwadar become a hub of economic activities in the region.

The government‘s decision to declare Gwadar an industrial zone will attract investors, create job
opportunities, and open up new vistas of economic and tourist trade development in the coastal region.

Gwadar port is mainly based on the cargo from Western China, Afghanistan and Central Asian
Republics.

Prospective Port for Regional Countries

Trade Prospect with CARs.

The total population of this region is around 65 million,

which is distributed amongst 6 states, out of which Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and
Turkmenistan, have close geographical proximity with us and as such will be the
potential users of Gwadar port.

The present total foreign trade of the area is estimated to

be 20 billion US$ with 12 billion US $ of exports.

The total international trade in terms of

weight and volume is approximately 80 million freight tons.

The main items and

commodities of trade brought in from various ports are all kinds of consumer goods,
electronic items and garments.

Exports, which are our main focus of attention, include cotton, metal ores, machinery, gas and oil.

The road distance from Kushka in Turkmenistan to Gwadar is only 1200 km‘s

the nearest Black Sea port of Odessa in Ukraine is approximately three thousand and four
hundred km‘s away from Central Asian States.

Thus Gwadar automatically becomes the most viable option available with the CARs.
 A 500-km long highway connecting Gwadar with CARS via Panjgur, Chaghi and Rabat, up to Herat is
therefore being rightly planned.

Trade Prospect with China

China is an economic giant of the region.

Being a coastal region, the eastern part

of China is far more developed than her Western region.

But ever since China has

triggered the western development strategy in the late 1990s, the western region has
drawn the attention due to its cheaper labor force, rich natural resources and potential
huge market.

southern tip of the huge Xinjiang autonomous region is four thousand five hundred km from Chinese
ports located on the eastern coast but only about 2500 km from ports of Pakistan.

China‘s use of Gwadar port for exports originating from western region will provide her preferred option
over the ports located along her eastern coast, for which a distance of 10,000 km has to be covered.

Thus it may be logically visualized that Gwadar port will be an integral part of the

China‘s Foreign Trade route in future.

The existing Karakoram highway already connects western China with Pakistan.

With further expansion and upgrading of this traffic artery and proposed linkages with Gwadar
via planned Ratodero – Khuzdar road, Western China shall have easier access to Gwadar.

Trade Prospects with Afghanistan

Afghanistan after having been placed on a path of development is in desperate need of finding
new avenues for boosting its economy.

full of natural resources –huge deposits of copper, high-grade iron ore, chromite, sulpher, zinc, precious
stones, oil and gas.
possesses reserves of oil, gas, coal

Once the
conditions in Afghanistan become conducive to full exploitation of this productive potential, it
will trigger a formidable momentum of trade activity, which would need operationally feasible
and economically viable sea trade routes.

Another important fact is US approval of over 1.4

billion US $ for the economic recovery of Trans Afghan gas pipeline.

This project will carry 30

billion cubic meters of gas per annum from Turkmenistan‘s gas fields to Gwadar, and will be the
first and foremost step towards the perceived economic benefits.
With almost 30 billion US $
already invested by US oil companies in Central Asian region, the suggested Afghan route would
cost only one-half the amount of the other alternative, which would run through Georgia to
Turkey‘s Mediterranean coast.

This 1500 Km pipeline project can yield significant revenues as

Pakistan has plans to build a liquid-gas plant at the Gwadar Port for export purposes.

Incentives for the Development of the Country

The development of Gwadar port will also play an active role in changing the economic destiny
of our country.

This province has abundant mineral resources, which could not be exploited
earlier mainly due to poor communication infrastructure.

The development of roads due to increased economic activity in the province will bring about the much-
needed development.

China’s Interest in Gwadar Port

China‘s securing of a strategic port in Pakistan is the most recent expansion to its head to secure
vigor and oceanic tracks and gives it a Potential maritime base in the Arabian Sea.

The Pakistanis pitched the arrangement as a Induced and

exchange passageway that might associate China to the Arabian
Sea and Strait of Hormuz, an entryway for a third of the
world‘s traded oil, overland through an extended Karakoram Highway.

For Pakistan, the budgetary comes back from Gwadar port stem from its area close to the Strait
of Hormuz, through which 40% of the planet‘s oil passes.

Gwadar could develop as a key dispatching focus, carrying Pakistan greatly required pay, and when
joined with the encompassing territories could turn into an exchange center, once street and rail joins
unite it to whatever is left of Pakistan, Afghanistan and Central Asia.

A Street from Gwadar to Saindak,

said to be the briefest track between Central Asia and the ocean, is under development.

Gwadar
might give landlocked Afghanistan and the Central Asian republics with access to the ocean.

Products and oil and gas saves from these nations could be dispatched to worldwide showcases
through Gwadar port.

Pakistan‘s business group appears to be energetic about Gwadar port being

designated an organized commerce zone and a fare handling zone.

To close, Gwadar gloats geographic position in spades, arranged as it is to India‘s west and close
to the Strait of Hormuz.
Baloch reservations on Gwadar
Bal—passing through a political crisis

Handing over of Gwadar Port to China opposed by Baloch nationalists & Baloch parliamentarians and
expressed their serious reservations.

Nawabzada Jamil Bugti, son of Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti, says different quarters are giving an
impression that Gwadar Port would bring prosperity and development in Baluchistan, but it is
absolutely wrong.

‘this step is aimed at further strengthening control over Baloch

resources with the help of China, adding that handing over Gwadar Port to China is a proof that
Pakistan is not capable of running its institutions.

Conclusion
Located at the entrance of the Persian Gulf and about 460 km‘s from Karachi, Gwadar has had
immense Geostrategic significance on many accounts.

The strategic location of Gwadar port might be taken advantage of to facilitate regional and
international trade.

Gwadar become a hub of economic activities in the region.

Gwadar port will be an integral part of the China‘s Foreign Trade route in future.

It‘s amazing that tomorrow‘s small fishing village ‗Gwadar‘ is fast emerging as a Deep Sea Port today.

This is important to note that the Government of Pakistan, keeping in view its utmost significance in the
area, has declared ‗Gwadar‘ as a Duty Free Port and a Free Economic Zone.
rategic China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

China's new Prime Minister Mr. Li KeQiang has just ended a two-day visit to Pakistan. Speaking to the
Senate, Li declared that "the development of China cannot be separated from the friendship with
Pakistan". To make it more concrete, the Chinese Premier brought with him a 5-points proposal which
emphasizes "strategic and long-term planning", "connectivity and maritime sectors" and "China-Pakistan
economic corridor project".
 Source: China Daily

From L to R: Premier Lee, President Zardari and Prime Minister Khoso

Here's a recent report by China's State-owned Xinhua News Agency that can help put the Chinese
premier's speech in context:

“As a global economic power, China has a tremendous number of economic sea lanes to protect. China is
justified to develop its military capabilities to safeguard its sovereignty and protect its vast interests
around the world."

The Xinhua report has for the first time shed light on China's growing concerns with US pivot to Asia
which could threaten China's international trade and its economic lifeline of energy and other natural
resources it needs to sustain and grow its economy. This concern has been further reinforced by the
following:

1. Frequent US statements to "check" China's rise. For example, former US Defense Secretary Leon
Panetta said in a 2011 address to the Naval Postgraduate School in California: "We try everything we can
to cooperate with these rising powers and to work with them, but to make sure at the same time that they
do not threaten stability in the world, to be able to project our power, to be able to say to the world that we
continue to be a force to be reckoned with." He added that "we continue to confront rising powers in the
world - China, India, Brazil, Russia, countries that we need to cooperate with. We need to hopefully work
with. But in the end, we also need to make sure do not threaten the stability of the world."
 Source: The Guardian

2. Chinese strategists see a long chain of islands from Japan in the north, all the way down to Australia, all
United States allies, all potential controlling chokepoints that could block Chinese sea lanes and cripple
its economy, business and industry.
 Karakoram Highway-World's Highest Paved International Road at 15000 ft.

Chinese Premier's emphasis on "connectivity and maritime sectors" and "China-Pakistan economic
corridor project" is mainly driven by their paranoia about the US intentions to "check China's rise" It is
intended to establish greater maritime presence at Gwadar, located close to the strategic Strait of Hormuz,
and to build land routes (motorways, rail links, pipelines) from the Persian Gulf through Pakistan to
Western China. This is China's insurance to continue trade with West Asia and the Middle East in case of
hostilities with the United States and its allies in Asia.

Pakistan's Gawadar Port- located 400 Km from the Strait of Hormuz

As to the benefits for Pakistanis, the Chinese investment in "connectivity and maritime sectors" and
"China-Pakistan economic corridor project" will help build infrastructure, stimulate Pakistan's economy
and create millions of badly needed jobs.

Clearly, China-Pakistan ties have now become much more strategic than the US-Pakistan ties, particularly
since 2011 because, as American Journalist Mark Mazzetti of New York Times put it, the Obama
administration's heavy handed policies "turned Pakistan against the United States". A similar view is
offered by a former State Department official Vali Nasr in his book "The Dispensable Nation".