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    14 views10 pages

    Zeskanowane Dokumenty

    Uploaded by

    Jan Probosz

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    of 10
    ‘The ext pol from Poland's lection have Eurocrats grinning ike Cheshire cay, After years of estrangement and antagonism, Poland's centrist opposition Civig Coalition, has «simple message for Brass "We, the ih ages county inthe EU fold ae {it ht they ed by former European Council ehiet Donald Tusk means the EY believes them, Brussels has been deeply worried about Poland's election. Lite was sid in publi, EU figures don't want o be seen as interfering in national votes, but behind closed doors there was a tonne of euro-nail-biting, Foland and Hungary hve long been viewed asthe EU bad-boys: awed democracies, and EU-hostile They were accused of flouting the bloc's democratic norms, {funsary and Poland also repeatedly stood in the way of agreeing new EU-wi ‘ackle migration and implementing ambitious EU climate goals, ‘Those forees are polling strongly in France, Austria and election in Slovakia. Still, when I spoke to European Cor Uupbeat, He hoped the tensions "h describing Warsaw as a core memt ‘+ Poland clection earthquake: What happens next? {Wsahistoric enmity, From that defence perspestive, Nato was far more sanguine about ‘Poland’ election result than the EU. tr does not want to be drawn int the domestic politics of national government, but Warsaw ‘us played an increasingly high-profile role in the military alliance since Russias invasion of Ukraine, ‘Nate's ambassador othe US, Julianne Smith, told me what she observed on visit to Poland ‘yas a dedication bythe Polish people - not just the Polish government -to continue supporting Ukraine, "They're right there. They border Ukraine, they feel this war differently than some ofthe other allies actoss the alliance. ower” "Its very close to their daily lives. And for that reason I think we can count on Poland, we feel quite comfortable with counting on them over the long term, irrespective of who might be in Even before the outspoken Donald Trump became US President, Washington was deply ‘rystraed that its European allies didat spend more on defence. t's delighted Poland spends ‘3%oof its GDP on making itself fe! safer. And its thought unlikely Civic Coalition will reverse that ‘mn fact, Poland is so woried the war in Ukraine could spill over its borders, tha it announced plans to invest in enough equipment and personnel to become Europe's strongest army by 2026, Poland election earthquake: What happens next? Who gets first shot at forming a government? 4 goverment and securing a vote of confidence in pariaonege meet etn este appeas o have no clear out to foming a goveramen with ee ice eet positon coalition of Civic Casiton th as ae the Left dloes seem able to form a government with a majority, Aiea ie second ext poll, Law and Justice would win 198 seats, well short of the 231, [ented fora majority Is potential coalition partners are limited as ccc ‘With the farright Confederation party, they would muster only 212, The opposition could count on 248 seats. 1 President Duda lets Law and Justice have the first go and it ls, then parliament gets the Sccond shot at forming a government, which if the result confirms the xg polls, would givea ‘majority to the opposition coalition, President Duda could also decline to ask Law and Justice to ty to form a government given the parliamentary maths, What if nothing is agreed? attempt fails, then President Duda selects another candidate for If that second parliamentary PM, and if that fails, he can call fresh elections. If ll these stages pan out, Poland could be without a government into November and December - and/or heading towards fresh elections What do the opposition parties disagree on? will not have If the opposition coalition is appointed and confirmed in a vote of confidence, it will not an easy time Fis, i's potically diverse, from the moderate conservatives ofthe Third Way to some inal, it’ politi ‘hard-left MPs in the Left. Forexampleboh ive Cotton andthe Left support iberliston of the ues on abortion, Civie Coaition andthe Left campaigned to allow women to choose to terminate their pregnancies up to 12 weeks. ‘The Third Way takes a more conservative approach, saying it wants to overtum a 2020 court ruling outlawing abortion in cases of severe ‘octal defects - which effectively banned all egal ‘Pregnancy terminations - but would then put the issue of any furkher steps toa referendum, ‘The Left wants to significantly reduce the influence of the Catholic Church on state institutions, something that Third Way MPs may be uncomfortable. with, + Poland's expected politcal e thquake delights Brussels + Polish right-wing party to lose majority - exit poll What obstacles could a coalition face? magneton lock has pledged to restr the independence ofthe judiciary andthe publi nea, ‘The European Commission and multiple international bod ‘ave undermined judicial nde lies say Law and Justice's reforms pendence and media plural State media has been transformed i ism. Under Law and Justice, the ito party (Law and Justice) media, Jakub Jaraczewski, Sylwia C hal the votes counted, the ruling Law and Justice party bas no viable path to a Fotmetry mast Ov panel esponds Jakub Jeracrewskl: Restoring the rule of aw won't be easy, but thi is he nr ‘step Proatemocratie Poles can be cautiously happy. The ruling rightin (i enemas eer hoe osteocalcin unlikely to beable to form a government, Konfederacja party ig party Law and Justice \ds in its favour, but it is ther alone or in coalition with the farright ‘Tne government will almost certainly be formed by thre groups: the cenit ibe Civic Calton, led by Donald Tusk, te cetist Third Way and the Left an allan oe parties and movements Ihe agree on some issues: Poland's place inthe EU, restoring the rule of lw, Support for {isan and defence against Russi. They're es aligned onthe economy end ce section, but there's a credible expectation that they willbe able to set ther ai repair the country shaadi nevertheless a bumpy one President Andrzej Duda, PS aly, wl i give Pi a first shot at forming @ government. It will probably ty to negotiate, entice ‘some opposition politicians to form a ‘majority. Expect several weeks watching as PiS signals it is’ “very close” new PiS government would ; leading t the opposi {tas expected, a centre-left coalition goverment takes charge, restoring the le of aw sale th arduous task, The country is deeply polarised after eight year of PIS le Men re ‘ulliple obstacles, ome resulting fo : ing pwr by PiS to hinder any attempts to disl 1997 Polish constitution was not altered, as, ‘consistently lacked the votes to pass the hei ‘The biggest obstacle to any reform will be Duda, whose second and a, coats 2025. He wields the power of legislative veto over legislation passed by parliament Fatlament can defeat such a veto, but the curent opposition wl ack the votes esd to do 50. Tusk and his allies will have to either negotiate with Duda or hold off any significant reforms until the next presidential election. captured institutic ti it and the ther hi ll be the. institutions, such as the constitutional tribunal and the Tat ome sca a aE ‘been packed with PiS loyalists. ae ‘hinder attempts to rebuild the Polish legal I perma eo eee $ Dad Refoing eer wl rege gen eta: What happens next? a ‘the al tovarts Pld booming one agin a democracy where te cor B insted ofan ndbunan igh ar bse sng teeny, BaP ee taken the ist step towards geting there, +b acre isa esr coins at Demoray Reporting Ita Bein " Syivia Cutt: Women and minorities targeted by PS can now begin to hope ‘Ths oie ates pil among Wore a mini rags hs gue el nd mig Forte as ight as, tn eve en wgetin te ns tary stent to desablieheete Pls demacapaou yates banc hase ‘rin vlaethnan hs ane setae os ne eta uD py enn. inc LEBTO one nee ‘people but an ideology. ne oe ae ‘A neat anon abortion enabled by algment of he consol bn in 2020 ‘ought hanes of thousans of peopl ono th soe ling une the bane fe ‘Women's Sine But hat i ne top ough ered end et est mca were forest o cary ea foes to em, yin pis nom pb hits, ‘Alone (16m foe was il one Pah Belin rrp despre ‘gan fom rsing Not ol did his ive the eed we viet man. stuck, which aren cousavention of terion figs le, bt ci als "acuing ie Hino foe wield ings wet every dag ie poses, “Tare may mor examples sts musing a te embed pps — lioph i ded ie seat te aries" enphaed thet vot for yf em woud alptododge th uned igh. Weil expe te ive Cau Ti Ws (Ge) and th Le pry contig ity or the et oer a ese eh ‘stoner ad isnt gai ‘Sovhats th cae fer al? wil renin dif tecnica ai

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