CASUAL METHODS

GROUP MEMBERS
NAME REG NUM

BVEKERWA YEUKAI C2215O979H

CHARI LEEN C22149217G

MADHOCHI PAMELA C22151508B

MUCHECHETERE TANAKA C22151044F

SHERENI SHYLINE C22149962N

SIMANGO PERPETUAL C22150230D

CAUSUAL METHODS

Regression method defination

Regression method is a statistical approach that seeks to determine the casual between two different
variables for the purpose of predicting the future fashion trends.These variables are independent and
dependent variables. It involves analysing historical data on a variable.Regression model enables fashion
forecasters to identify key drivers that impact fashion choices and these factors includes age, gender and
economic factores.There are many types of regression methods and in fashion forecasting linear
regression is mainly used. Linear regression is a simple and widely used approach that estimates the
relationship between two variables by fitting a linear equation to the data.

Linear regression is one of the most widely used and simplest methods for predictive analytics. It is a
statistical technique that models the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more
independent variables. For example, you can use linear regression to predict sales based on advertising
spend, customer satisfaction based on service quality, or life expectancy based on health factors.

. In a causal analysis, the independent variables are regarded as causes of the dependent variable.

I. The aim of the study is to determine whether a causal relationship exists between the independent
and dependent variables.

. On the other hand, in a prediction study, the goal is to develop a model that can accurately predict the
value of the dependent variable based on the values of the independent variables.

ADVANTAGES

-Easy to understand and easy to implement

One of the main advantages of using linear regression for predictive analytics is that it is easy to
understand and interpret. The linear equation that represents the relationship between the variables can
be expressed in a simple form: y = a + bx, where y is the dependent variable, a is the intercept, b is the
slope, and x is the independent variable. You can use this equation to estimate the value of y for any
given value of x, or to test hypotheses about the significance and direction of the relationship. You can
also visualize the linear relationship by plotting the data points and the regression line on a graph.

-Improved decision making

Regression method enables fashion forecasters to make plans based on observed pattern and improve
their services to clients and customers as they are built upon basic statistical principle.It can help fashion
businesses to make informed decisions about inventory, production and marketing strategies

-Problem solving

Calculating regression helps individual or business to solve the various problem they face.For example if
a company desires an outcome to be better,I t can alter the variable that affects.Regression enables the
business to understand the factors that influence their sales and make adjustments accordingly.

Montgomery et al. (2006) emphasize that regression models provide insights into the importance of
independent variables in predicting the dependent variable, helping us understand of a particular
outcome. 2.

-Improved understanding

Business can also use regression so as to explain the reasons for the events they face that affect their
operation.

-Enhanced accuracy

The consistency and reliability offered by the systematic analysis of data helps reduce guess work and
subjective bias leading to more precise forecasts.

DISADVANTAGES

-Assumptions

Regression analysis relies on certain assumptions,such as linearity,normality,and independence of

erros.Violations of these assumptions can lead to inaccurate results

-Sensitive to errors

Regression method cannot work properly if the input data has errors or poor quality data.

-Linear regression only look at linear relationship between dependent and independent variables and
may not capture non-linear relationships that exists in some data sets.

-Prone to overfitting and underfitting

Another disadvantage of using linear regression for predictive analytics is that it is prone to overfitting
and underfitting. Overfitting occurs when the linear regression model fits the data too well, by capturing
not only the general trend but also the random noise. This leads to a high variance and low bias model,
which performs well on the training data but poorly on new or unseen data. Underfitting occurs when
the linear regression model fits the data too poorly, by failing to capture the underlying pattern or
relationship. This leads to a low variance and high bias model, which performs poorly on both the
training and the test data. To avoid overfitting and underfitting, you need to select the appropriate
number and type of independent variables, by using techniques such as feature selection, feature
engineering, or cross-validation.Overfitting of data can lead to poor generalisation and poor predictions
performance

Harrell (2016) highlights the potential risk of overfitting in regression models. If the model is too complex
and incorporates too many predictors relative to the sample size, it may lead to good fit in the current
data but poor prediction performance in new data.

-Time complexity

Regression analysis can be time-consuming, especially when dealing with large datasets
ECONOMIC MODDEL

Using "Fashion Forecasting" by Janine Marzano as a source, the economic model of fashion forecasting
can be described as follows: "The economic model analyses the factors affecting spending, such as
disposable income, consumer sentiment, and interest rates, and seeks to predict when consumers will
spend more or less on fashion items" (Marzano, 2017, p. 48). This model is based on the idea that
fashion is a luxury good, meaning that its demand is affected by economic conditions. For example,
during a ,, people are less likely to purchase new, clothing.According to * [The Fashion Forecasting
Economic Model](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/110915/fashion-forecasting-
economic-model.asp)

An economic model in fashion forecasting is essentially a way to analyse current and future trends in the
fashion industry based on economic factors such as consumer spending, income levels and overall
market conditions. These models are developed using statistical analysis and data driven research to
predict trends in areas like seasonal colors, fabrics, styles and designs.By analysing economic indicators
like GDP growth, inflation rates and interest rates fashion forecasters can make educated predictions
about what consumers will want to buy in the coming months and years.Economic models are used by
fashion companies to inform their design and production decisions, so they can stay ahead of the
competition and meet consumer design.

The economic model is based on the idea that fashion trends are cyclical.This means that certain styles
and trends will come in and out of fashion over time .The model takes into account a number of factors
including historical data on fashion trends , current economic conditions and social conditions and
cultural trends."The economic model of fashion forecasting uses data such as sales figures, inflation
rates, and interest rates to predict future trends. This approach has the advantage of objectivity, but
does not fully account for the subjective factors that influence fashion trends, such as designers' vision
and consumers' emotions" (Ruudder 2016, p. 24). Rudd, M. J. (2016). Fashion forecasting. London:
Bloomsbury Academic

.There are a number of different fashion forecasting economic models. Some of the most common
include: The trend cycle model, also known as the Kübler-Ross model, is a theory that describes the
typical life cycle of a fashion trend. According to this model, trends follow a cycle of introduction, rise,
peak, and decline. An example of a citation that explains this model is: "The Kübler-Ross model of
fashion trend analysis is a four-phase cycle that tracks the rise and fall of a trend. The four phases are
introduction, rise, peak, and decline" (Fletcher, 2019, p. 58). Fletcher, J. (2019).

The sustainable fashion handbook. London: Thames &The diffusion of innovations model, also known as
the Rogers model, is a theory that describes how new ideas and products spread through a population.
This model is often used in fashion forecasting to predict the uptake of new trends. An example of a
citation that explains this model is: "The Rogers model of fashion forecasting proposes that ideas spread
through a social system in a pattern of four stages: innovators, early adopters, early majority, and late
majority. These stages are defined by the timing of adoption, and by individual characteristics" (Zahra,
2019, p. 32). Zahra, R. (2019).

* [The Fashion Forecasting Economic Model: A Critical Analysis](https://www.jstor.org/stable/2490062),

states that the trickle down model is based on the idea that new fashion trends start with high-end
designers and then trickle down to the mass market. This model identifies three distinct levels of
fashion: haute couture, ready-to-wear, and mass market. The trickle down model, also known as the
"trickle down" or "trickle-down" theory, suggests that new fashion trends originate at the top of society
and eventually spread to the masses. An example of a citation that explains this model is: "The trickle
down model proposes that new fashion trends are initiated by a small number of influential individuals,
and are then adopted by a larger segment of the population over time" (Horn, 2019, p. 42). Horn, H.
(2019). Fashion management. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan

. Advantages and disadvantages of economic model according to Schuessler, K. (2015).

Understanding fashion: from business to culture..

Advantages of using economic models in fashion forecasting is that it can help you them to make
informed decisions about what products to produce and sell and when to do so. This can help them to
maximize their profits and stay ahead of the competition.

Accurate predictions: Economic models are often based on empirical data and statistical analysis, which
can help forecasters make accurate predictions about future trends.

Cost-effective: Using an economic model can be a cost-effective way to predict upcoming fashion trends,
as opposed to relying solely on intuition or guesswork.

Data-driven decisions: By analyzing economic indicators and consumer behavior, fashion companies can
make informed, data-driven decisions about design and production that are more likely to resonate with
customers.

However, there are also some potential disadvantages to using economic models in fashion forecasting:
according to (Oglethorpe, D. (2019). Fashion forecasting. London: Bloomsbury Publishing , Carl, P.
(2018).,Limited scope: While economic models can provide valuable insights into consumer behavior,
they may not take into account factors like cultural or social trends that can also impact fashion choices.
This means that trends can be unpredictable and difficult to forecast using only economic data.

Over-reliance on data: In some cases, fashion companies may rely too heavily on economic models and
overlook qualitative data like customer feedback or design aesthetics. The model assumes that
consumers are rational and make decisions based on cost and benefit calculations, which may not always
be the case.

Risk of error: As with any forecasting method, there is always a risk of error when using economic
models. Unexpected events such as changes in the political climate or natural disasters can impact
consumer behavior in ways that are difficult to predict.The model can be time consuming to use. It can
also be expensive to use.

INPUT MODEL

INPUT MODEL According to Bryman ,A (2016). input model is a technique that uses current and historical
data to predict future trends.

He said that ,this model takes into account a variety of factors, such as: social, cultural and economic
trends and uses them to create a forecast.
The input model can include data from variety of sources such as trend reports, fashion shows, street
style and market research.

The data is then analysed and interpreted to determine which trends are likely to emerge in the future.

The input model is a helpful tool for forecasters who want to stay ahead of the curve and understand the
dynamic of the fashion industry.

Advantages of input model

On the advantages of input model, Trochin,W.M.K (2006), said that input model allows forecasters to
draw on a wide range of information to make predictions.

Secondly Trochin said, input model provides predictive power: It allows researchers to make predictions
about future based outcomes based on their understanding of the underlying mechanisms of a
phenomenon.

It is flexible and can be adjusted to account for new developments and trends as they emerge.

It is efficient and cost effective as it can be done without extensive research or analysis.

It provides forecasters with a comprehensive understanding of the fashion industry and how it is likely to
evolve over time.

Disadvantages of input model

According to Fiske S T and Taylor S E (2013) input model can be difficult to identify the most relevant and
accurate data to use as input.

There is potential bias in observational researchers do not have control over manipulation of variables
and may I influenced by their own biases when interpreting the results. This can lead to inaccurate
causality.

The input model relies heavily on subjective analysis and interpretation, which can lead to inaccurate or
biased forecasters.

The model can be slow to respond to sudden changes or new developments, making it difficult to stay
on top of rapidly evolving trends.

The input model is time consuming and expensive : conducting experiments and other casual methods
can be time consuming and expensive . This may limit the feasibility of using these methods in certain
research settings.

There is also lack of creativity , the input model heavily relies on past data and established trends to
predict future fashion outcomes . This can leads to lack of creativity innovation in fashion forecasting as
it does not actively encourage experimentation and exploration of new ideas . Fashion forecasting should
involve a balance of data driven insights and creative intuition

In conclusion it is important to note that while the input model has it's disadvantages.
THE OUTPUT MODEL

According to Nishikawa S (2020) The Output Model: An Introduction to Data-Driven Fashion Trend
Analysis", an output model is defined as a tool for analyzing and forecasting fashion trends. It is a
mathematical model that uses statistical data and algorithms to predict future trends in the fashion
industry. This model uses data from past sales and market research to make predictions about future
fashion trends. It can be used to predict what colors, fabrics, and styles will be popular in the future.

Nishikawa argues that output models are more accurate than other methods of fashion trend analysis,
such as surveys and focus groups

.-It is where the final designs are created and marketed to the consumers.-The output model is what
ultimately determine the success or failure of a design.

-The design team takes the information gathered in the input and coding stages and uses it to create
new designs.

-It involves several stages which includes the brainstorming, prototyping and market testing.-The model
involves a lot of trial and error it is an iterative process as designers goes through several rounds of
testing and creating designs because trends are constantly changing.

The output model under trend analysis is a key component of forecasting and predicting future trends in
various industries. It utilizes historical data and statistical techniques to identify patterns, understand
changes over time, and make future predictions.

Process of the output model

1. Purpose: The primary purpose of the output model under trend analysis is to identify and predict
significant patterns, patterns, or changes in a dataset over a specific period. It aids in understanding the
underlying factors driving these trends and provides insights for decision-making.

2. Data Analysis: The output model begins by analyzing historical data, which could be financial, sales,
marketing, or any other relevant dataset. The model examines key variables or metrics and applies
statistical methods to identify trends, such as linear, exponential, or seasonal patterns.

3. Pattern Identification: The model identifies various types of trends, such as upward or downward
trends, cyclicality, seasonality, short-term fluctuations, and long-term patterns. It aims to capture the
underlying dynamics and cyclical nature of the data, allowing businesses to adjust their strategies
accordingly.

4. Forecasting: Once the patterns are identified, the output model extrapolates the trends into the
future, allowing for accurate predictions and forecasts. This enables businesses to forecast future sales,
demand, market conditions, or any other relevant parameters, aiding in decision-making and planning.

5. Factors Influencing Trends: The output model takes into account various factors that can influence
trends, such as economic conditions, consumer behavior, technological advancements, regulatory
changes, and industry-specific factors. By considering these factors, the model provides a holistic view of
the future trends and their potential driving forces.

6. Accuracy and Confidence Intervals: While the output model strives to make accurate predictions, it is
important to note that no forecasting model is 100% accurate. Therefore, the output model often
provides confidence intervals or ranges within which the future trends are expected to fall. This helps
businesses understand the level of uncertainty associated with the predictions.

7. Decision-Making Support: The results of the output model under trend analysis serve as a valuable
tool in strategic decision-making. Businesses can use the predicted trends to optimize their operations,
adjust resource allocation, assess risks and opportunities, and develop effective strategies to stay ahead
in the market.

8. Continuous Evaluation: As trends and market dynamics change over time, the output model needs to
be continuously evaluated and updated. Regular updates to the model ensure that it remains relevant
and reflects the current market conditions, incorporating new data and removing outdated information.

Advantages of the output model

1. According to Nakano. N ,The output model is less subjective than other methods of fashion trend
analysis, such as surveys or expert opinion.

2. It is easy to use and understand, even for those without a background in statistics or data analysis.

3. The output model can be used to make short-term and long-term predictions.

4. It can be used to analyze trends at a very detailed level, such as by product category or market
segment.

5. The output model can be easily updated with new data, allowing for more accurate and timely
predictions.

The above 5 advantages are according to Nakano .S and the below 6 are according to other sources

1. Improved Decision-Making: The output model provides valuable insights and predictions, enabling
businesses to make informed decisions based on future trends. This can lead to improved resource
allocation, better strategic planning, and increased competitiveness.

2. Accurate Forecasting: By analyzing historical data and applying statistical techniques, the output
model can provide reasonably accurate forecasts of future trends. This helps businesses anticipate
market conditions, customer demand, and other critical factors.

3. Identification of Patterns and Cycles: The model can identify patterns, cyclicality, and seasonality in
the data, allowing businesses to understand the underlying dynamics and plan accordingly. This helps in
optimizing operations and taking advantage of favorable market conditions.

4. Holistic View: The output model takes into account various factors and variables that can influence
trends, providing a comprehensive view of the market dynamics. This helps businesses consider multiple
factors simultaneously and make more informed decisions.

5. Continuous Updates: The output model can be regularly updated with new data, ensuring that it
remains relevant and reflects the latest market conditions. This allows businesses to adapt their
strategies and plans based on the most up-to-date information.6. Allows designers to be creative and
experiment with different designs.
Disadvantages of the output model under trend analysis:

1. Uncertainty: While the output model provides predictions and forecasts, it's important to remember
that future trends are inherently uncertain. External factors, unforeseen events, or changes in market
conditions can significantly impact the accuracy of the model's predictions.

2. Data Limitations: The accuracy and reliability of the output model heavily rely on the quality and
availability of historical data. Insufficient or incomplete data can lead to less accurate predictions,
especially in complex and rapidly changing industries.

3. Assumptions and Limitations: The output model is built on certain assumptions and simplifications to
represent the complex realities of the market. These assumptions may not always hold true in practice,
leading to potential limitations in the model's accuracy and applicability.

4. Inability to Capture Rare Events: The output model may struggle to anticipate rare or unprecedented
events that have a significant impact on trends. Black swan events, such as economic crises or major
disruptions, are challenging to predict accurately.

5. Interpretation and Human Element: While the output model provides valuable predictions, it still
requires interpretation and human judgment to translate the results into actionable insights. Human
biases or misinterpretations can introduce errors in the decision-making process.

6. Model Complexity and Expertise Requirement: The output model under trend analysis can be
complex, requiring specialized knowledge and expertise to develop, implement, and interpret the
results. This may limit its accessibility to businesses lacking the necessary resources or expertise.

7.May lead to inaccuracies because it heavily relies on historical date for forecasting.

8.Diffucult to predict which design will be successful because trends are constantly changing.

References

-Output and it's application to the Analysis of Trends by Nishikawa.S- "Advanced Approaches to Fashion
Trend Analysis using Image Processing and Neural Networks" by Nakano, N.

SIMULATED MODEL

Simulated model Fashion forecasting is a crucial aspect of the fashion industry, enabling fashion brands
and designers to anticipate upcoming trends and consumer preferences (Li & Zhang, 2019). One method
employed in fashion forecasting is the use of simulated models, which serve as a casual approach to
predicting future fashion trends. Simulated models are essentially computer-generated avatars that
simulate human figures and movements in virtual environments (Laverne & Gauvin, 2019). This
innovative technology has gained prominence in recent years, revolutionizing the way fashion designers
conceptualize and showcase their designs. In this discussion, we will explore the concept of simulated
models as a casual method of fashion forecasting, highlighting their benefits and potential implications.

Advantages

Simulated models offer several advantages in the realm of fashion forecasting. Firstly, they provide a
cost-effective alternative to traditional methods of trend prediction. By using computer-generated
avatars, fashion designers can avoid the expenses associated with hiring models, organizing photoshoots,
and conducting physical fittings (Laverne & Gauvin, 2019). This allows designers to experiment with a
wide range of designs and styles without incurring significant financial burdens.

Additionally, simulated models offer a high level of flexibility and adaptability. Fashion forecasting often
requires designers to envision their creations on different body types and sizes to cater to diverse
consumer preferences. Simulated models can be easily manipulated to represent various body shapes,
allowing designers to visualize how their designs will look on different individuals (Li & Zhang, 2019). This
flexibility enables designers to create inclusive and diverse collections that resonate with a broader
audience.

Another advantage of simulated models is the ability to rapidly iterate and test new designs. Traditional
fashion forecasting methods can be time-consuming and may involve multiple iterations before finalizing
a design. With simulated models, designers can quickly visualize their ideas and make adjustments in
real-time, reducing the time and effort required in the design process (Laverne & Gauvin, 2019). This
speed and efficiency enable designers to respond swiftly to emerging trends and consumer demands.

Moreover, simulated models offer a sustainable approach to fashion forecasting. The fashion industry is
increasingly focusing on sustainability, and simulated models contribute to reducing the environmental
impact associated with traditional fashion forecasting practices. By minimizing the need for physical
prototypes and samples, simulated models help reduce waste and energy consumption in the design and
production processes (Li & Zhang, 2019).

In conclusion, the advantages of simulated models in fashion forecasting are numerous. They offer cost-
effectiveness, flexibility, rapid iteration, and sustainability. By harnessing the power of technology,
fashion designers can leverage simulated models to enhance their creativity, streamline the design
process, and accurately predict future fashion trends.

Disadvantages

Simulated models have several disadvantages as a casual method of fashion forecasting. Firstly, one
limitation is the lack of real-world data integration. Simulated models rely on simulated data, which may
not capture the complexity and nuances of the fashion industry accurately (Hines and Bruce, 2001). By
not incorporating real-world data, these models may overlook important factors such as changing
consumer preferences, economic conditions, and cultural influences.

Secondly, simulated models often depend on assumptions and simplifications, which can lead to
inaccurate predictions. These models make assumptions about consumer behavior, market trends, and
fashion cycles, which may not hold true in reality (McCarthy and Wright, 2004). Consequently, relying
solely on simulated models can result in flawed forecasts that do not align with actual market
dynamics.Thirdly, simulated models may struggle to incorporate the intrinsic creativity and intuition of
designers and industry experts. Fashion forecasting involves a subjective aspect that cannot be captured
by mathematical algorithms alone (Cachon and Terwiesch, 2009). Simulated models may overlook the
intricacies of design, aesthetic choices, and brand positioning, which are crucial elements in fashion
forecasting.

Lastly, simulated models may not adequately account for unpredictable events and emerging trends.
Fashion is a highly dynamic industry, and unforeseen events such as social movements, technological
advancements, or natural disasters can significantly influence consumer behavior and fashion trends (Ng
and Wu, 2018). Simulated models may struggle to capture and predict such unexpected shifts
accurately.To address these disadvantages, it is essential to complement simulated models with real-
world data and human expertise. Integrating real-world data from sources such as sales data, customer
feedback, and market analysis can enhance the accuracy and relevance of fashion forecasting.

(Hahn et al., 2016). Additionally, involving industry experts, designers, and trend forecasters in the
forecasting process can provide valuable insights and ensure the incorporation of subjective factors
(Cachon and Terwiesch, 2009).

In conclusion, while simulated models offer valuable insights, their limitations as a casual method of
fashion forecasting should be recognized. Complementing these models with real-world data and human
expertise can address these limitations and improve the accuracy and relevance of forecasts in the
fashion industry.

"According to Kotsireas (2015) and Nguyen (2014), there are four steps involved in building a simulated
model for fashion forecasting. These steps include defining the target market, researching current
fashion trends, defining the price point, and defining the seasonal trends. Defining the target market,
this step involves identifying the demographic and psychographic characteristics of the target market.
Researching current fashion trends, this step involves studying current fashion trends, both on the
runway and in the street, to identify popular styles and silhouettes.Defining the price point, this step
involves setting a price point for the design based on the target market and the materials used.Defining
the seasonal trends, this step involves identifying the current color and fabric trends for the season.

Discuss the data collection process, simulated model development and validation.

Kotsireas (2015) states that: "Data collection is a critical step in developing a simulated model.

This data is collected from a variety of sources, including trend reports, fashion magazines, street style
blogs, and social media.

The data is then used to build the model, which is a mathematical representation of the fashion
market”.

The model is then validated by comparing its predictions to past data.This process helps to ensure that
the model is accurate and can be used to make reliable predictions.

Once the model is validated, it can be used to simulate different scenarios and predict how the design
will perform in the market.
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Cachon, G. P., & Terwiesch, C. (2009). Matching Supply with Demand: An Introduction to Operations
Management. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill/Irwin.

Data Analytics for Fashion Trend Forecasting" by Kwon, Park, and Kang, International Journal of
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Fashion forecasting. London: Bloomsbury Publishing.- Carl, P. (2018). (Fletcher, 2019, p. 58). Fletcher, J.
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Harrrel,F.,Jr(2016). Regression modeling strategies.Springer International Publishing

Laverne, F., & Gauvin, M. (2019). Artificial Intelligence and Fashion: Generating Trend Forecasts Using
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Li, Y., & Zhang, X. (2019). Fashion forecasting with machine learning techniques. In Fashion Supply Chain
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Marzano, 2017, p. 48). " (Ruudder 2016, p. 24). Rudd, M. J. (2016). Fashion forecasting. London:
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Ren,S.Choi.T.M.,and Liu,N (2014) Fashion sales forecasting with a panel date based particle-filter
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Sarstedt,M,.Mooi,E Sarstedt,M,.and Mooi,E.(2019) Regression9 analysis.A concise guide to market

research;The process,data and methods using IBM SPSS Statistics,209-25

[The Fashion Forecasting Economic

Model](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/110915/fashion-forecasting-economic-
model.asp) [

The Pros and Cons of the Fashion Forecasting Economic Model](https://www.thebalance.com/the-pros-

and-cons-of-the-fashion-forecasting-economic-model-2893426) Schuessler, K. (2015).

[The Fashion Forecasting Economic Model: A Critical Analysis](https://www.jstor.org/stable/2490062)

(Horn, 2019, p. 42). Horn, H. (2019). Fashion management. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan.

[The Fashion Forecasting Economic Model]

(https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/110915/fashion-forecasting-economic-
model.asp) *
[The Pros and Cons of the Fashion Forecasting Economic Model](https://www.thebalance.com/the-pros-
and-cons-of-the-fashion-forecasting-economic-model-2893426)

[The Fashion Forecasting Economic Model: A Critical Analysis](https://www.jstor.org/stable/2490062)

Understanding fashion: from business to culture..Oglethorpe, D. (2019).