UNIVERSITAS TERBUKA

TUGAS 01 SESI 03
MATA KULIAH BAHASA INGGRIS NIAGA

Nama Mahasiswa : Anggi Purnama Aji

NIM : 042168745
Program Studi : S1 Akuntansi
Semester : 03
UPBJJ : 24/Bandung, Jawa Barat

Untuk TUGAS 1 ini anda akan diberikan pilihan topik untuk membuat sebuah essay dengan
panduan sbb:

1. Buatlah essay dengan paling tidak 3 paragaph (1 buah paragraph awal, 1 buah
paragraph
A. isi dan 1 buah paragraph penutup).
2. Tulislah jawaban anda dalam rentang antara 150-200 kata.
3. Jawaban essay diketik dan dikirimkan ke Forum Tugas dalam bentuk Word dalam
waktu 2 minggu

Pilihlah salah satu topik berikut:

 Business cycle is the most powerful tool to measure economic performance

Do you agree or disagree with the statement?

 B. Foreign investor is the most responsible if Capital Flight happens in a country.

Do you agree or disagree with the statement?

 C. To be a First Mover in a business, you should do market analysis.

Do you agree or disagree with the statement?

Business cycles area type of fluctuation found in the aggregate economic activity of nations
that organize their work mainly in business enterprise ; a cycle consists of expansion occuring
at about the same time in many economic activities, followed by similarly general recessions,
contractions, and revival which merge into the expansion phaze of the nextcycle ; this sequence
of changes is recurrent but not periodic ; in duration business cycle vary from more than one
year to ten or twelve years ; they are not divisible into shorter cycles of similar character with
amplitudes approximating their own”
Naturally, economic conditions will experience a phase of economic improvement (expansion)
and will experience a phase of economic decline (contraction). The characteristics of the two
phases will repeat alternately in a certain period. This is known as the business cycle. Talking
about the business cycle is quite difficult to understand if you refer to only a few definitions of
experts. There are many different theories in the mechanism of economic ups and downs
(fluctuations). Real business cycle theory, Keynesian business cycle theory, and monetary
business cycle theory are the most common theories and are widely used by economists today.
According to classical economists, Burns and Mitchell (1946) define the business cycle as a
type of fluctuation in the level of economic activity ( real GDP) which alternates between
periods of expansion and contraction found in aggregate economic activity. The word cycle
itself contains the meaning of alternating between periods. There are several periods in it,
including the first phase of depression, which is a period of rapid decline in aggregate demand
followed by low levels of output and gradually high levels. the lowest base; the second stage
is the recovery stage, namely an increase in aggregate demand followed by an increase in output
and a decrease in the rate of change; the third stage is the period of prosperity (prosperity),
namely aggregate demand that reaches and then passes a continuous level of output (potential
GDP) at the peak of the cycle has been reached, where the level of full employment is achieved
and there is demand for rising prices. general (inflation); the fourth stage is a recession
(recession), in which aggregate demand declines, resulting in a small decline in output and
employment, as was the case in the early stages, along with this there will be a period of
depression. The variable used to regulate economic fluctuations is real GDP. One of the main
roles of government is to cope with the business cycle and reduce fluctuations that occur.

In addition, the business cycle can be divided into several components that have main
characteristics, including: fluctuation amplitude, commovement frequency, and lead and leg
patterns (Zimmermann, 2005). Abel and Bernanke (2001) divide indicators based on direction
using the business cycle as a reference, including the following:
a) Procyclical Indicator
An indicator that moves in the direction of the movement of the business cycle, both in
conditions of expansion and contraction phases. As a Peak Expansion through Recovery Boom
Contraction Yes Trend (Y* ) t (time) GAP 24 example of bank credit, that as a result of
uncertainty that causes global and domestic economic slowdown caused by slowing credit
growth. This can be seen from the indicator of a decrease in the rate of asset growth, one of
which is through an increase in lending standards to restrain lending.
b) Countercyclical Indicator
There are also indicators that move against the business cycle, both during contraction and
contraction conditions. An example of an indicator that has a countercyclical nature is NPL
(Non Performing Loan). When the economy is in a slowing condition, bank credit risk will
increase frequently and in line with the decline in people's ability to repay loans.
c) Acyclical Indicator
It is an indicator that moves without a clear relationship to the business cycle. Because this
character is considered incapable of explaining behavior or conditions in the financial system,
this indicator is very rarely found in business cycle movement patterns.
So it can be concluded that the business cycle can be used to assess the economic condition of
a country. Each cycle has two types of turning points, namely peaks and troughs. These two
turning points signal when the direction of the cyclical movement of an indicator changes from
a period of expansion to a period of contraction or if it happens the other way around. These
two turning points can only be determined using time series data which is a deviation from the
trend, which is the definition of the business cycle used in this study. These four stages
(depression, recovery, property, and recession) These stages will come and go throughout time
in a country's economy.

Referensi
BMP Bahasa Inggris Niaga ABDI1420 Modul 1
http://repository.umy.ac.id/bitstream/handle/123456789/23219/f.%20BAB%20II.pdf?sequen
ce=6&isAllowed=y
https://ejournal.undiksha.ac.id/index.php/IJSSB/article/view/17644/10582