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Macroeconomics
Eighth Edition
Andrew B. Abel
The Wharton School of the
University of Pennsylvania
Ben S. Bernanke
Dean Croushore
Robins School of Business
University of Richmond
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Abel, Andrew B.
Macroeconomics/Andrew B. Abel, Ben S. Bernanke, Dean Croushore.—8th ed.
p. cm.
Includes index.
ISBN 978-0-13-299228-2
1. Macroeconomics. 2. United States—Economic conditions. I. Bernanke, Ben.
II. Croushore, Dean. III. Title.
HB172.5.A24 2014
339—dc23
2012042884
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
v
Brief Contents
Preface xv
Part 1 Introduction
1 Introduction to Macroeconomics 1
2 The Measurement and Structure of the National Economy 22
1 Introduction
In Touch with Data and Research:
Part Natural Resources, the Environment, and the National
Income Accounts 29
The Expenditure Approach to Measuring GDP 30
Chapter 1 Introduction to Macroeconomics 1
The Income Approach to Measuring GDP 33
1.1 What Macroeconomics Is About 1 2.3 Saving and Wealth 36
Long-Run Economic Growth 2
Measures of Aggregate Saving 36
Business Cycles 4
The Uses of Private Saving 39
Unemployment 5
Relating Saving and Wealth 40
Inflation 6
2.4 Real GDP, Price Indexes, and Inflation 42
The International Economy 7
Real GDP 42
Macroeconomic Policy 8
Price Indexes 44
Aggregation 9
In Touch with Data and Research:
1.2 What Macroeconomists Do 10 The Computer Revolution and Chain-Weighted GDP 45
Macroeconomic Forecasting 10 In Touch with Data and Research:
Macroeconomic Analysis 11 Does CPI Inflation Overstate Increases in the Cost of
Living? 47
Macroeconomic Research 12
In Touch with Data and Research: APPLICATION The Federal Reserve’s Preferred Inflation
vii
viii Detailed Contents
The Consumption and Saving Decision of an 5.2 Goods Market Equilibrium in an Open
Individual 107 Economy 180
Effect of Changes in Current Income 108 5.3 Saving and Investment in a Small Open
Effect of Changes in Expected Future Income 109 Economy 181
Detailed Contents ix
The Effects of Economic Shocks in a Small Open In Touch with Data and Research:
Economy 184 The Monetary Aggregates 246
In Touch with Data and Research:
5.4 Saving and Investment in Large Open
Where Have All the Dollars Gone? 247
Economies 186
APPLICATION The Impact of Globalization on the U.S. 7.2 Portfolio Allocation and the Demand
Economy 189 for Assets 249
APPLICATION Recent Trends in the U.S. Current Account Expected Return 249
Deficit 191
Risk 250
5.5 Fiscal Policy and the Current Account 194 Liquidity 250
The Critical Factor: The Response of National Time to Maturity 250
Saving 194 Types of Assets and Their Characteristics 251
The Government Budget Deficit and National In Touch with Data and Research:
Saving 195 The Housing Crisis That Began in 2007 254
APPLICATION The Twin Deficits 196
Asset Demands 256
Policies to Affect the Saving Rate 235 Application Measuring Inflation Expectations 272
The Pre–World War I Period 283 The Equality of Money Demanded and Money
The Great Depression and World War II 283 Supplied 324
Post–World War II U.S. Business Cycles 285 Factors That Shift the LM Curve 327
The “Long Boom” 286 9.4 General Equilibrium in the Complete IS–LM
The Great Recession 286 Model 330
Have American Business Cycles Become Applying the IS–LM Framework: A Temporary
Less Severe? 287 Adverse Supply Shock 332
APPLICATION Oil Price Shocks Revisited 334
8.3 Business Cycle Facts 290
In Touch with Data and Research:
The Cyclical Behavior of Economic Variables:
Direction and Timing 290 Econometric Models and Macroeconomic Forecasts for
Monetary Policy Analysis 335
Production 291
Expenditure 293 9.5 Price Adjustment and the Attainment of
Employment and Unemployment 294 General Equilibrium 336
APPLICATION The Job Finding Rate and the Job The Effects of a Monetary Expansion 336
Loss Rate 295 Classical Versus Keynesian Versions of the IS–LM
Average Labor Productivity and the Model 340
Real Wage 298
9.6 Aggregate Demand and Aggregate
Money Growth and Inflation 299 Supply 342
Financial Variables 300 The Aggregate Demand Curve 342
International Aspects of the Business Cycle 301 The Aggregate Supply Curve 344
In Touch with Data and Research:
Equilibrium in the AD–AS Model 347
Coincident and Leading Indexes 302
Monetary Neutrality in the AD–AS Model 348
8.4 Business Cycle Analysis: A Preview 306
Appendix 9.A Worked-Out Numerical Exercise for
In Touch with Data and Research:
Solving the IS–LM/AD–AS Model 357
The Seasonal Cycle and the Business Cycle 307
Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply: Appendix 9.B AlgebraicVersions of the IS–LM
A Brief Introduction 308 and AD–AS Models 360
Chapter 13 Exchange Rates, Business Cycles, Chapter 14 Monetary Policy and the Federal
and Macroeconomic Policy in the Reserve System 534
Open Economy 481 14.1 Principles of Money Supply
13.1 Exchange Rates 482 Determination 535
Nominal Exchange Rates 482 Open-Market Operations 537
In Touch with Data and Research: The Money Multiplier 538
Exchange Rates 483 Bank Runs 541
Real Exchange Rates 484 APPLICATION The Money Multiplier During Severe
Purchasing Power Parity 486 14.2 Monetary Control in the United States 547
In Touch with Data and Research: The Federal Reserve System 547
McParity 487
The Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet and
The Real Exchange Rate and Net Exports 489 Open-Market Operations 548
APPLICATION The Value of the Dollar and U.S. Net Reserve Requirements 550
Exports 491 Discount Window Lending 551
13.2 How Exchange Rates Are Determined: Interest Rate on Reserves 553
A Supply-and-Demand Analysis 493
14.3 Setting Monetary Policy Targets 553
Macroeconomic Determinants of the Exchange Rate
Targeting the Federal Funds Rate 553
and Net Export Demand 495
14.4 Making Monetary Policy in Practice 557
13.3 The IS–LM Model for an Open
Economy 497 Lags in the Effect of Monetary Policy 557
The Open-Economy IS Curve 498 Conducting Monetary Policy Under
Uncertainty 559
Factors That Shift the Open-Economy IS Curve 501
Monetary Policy in the Great Recession 560
The International Transmission of Business
Cycles 503 APPLICATION The Financial Crisis of 2008 564
13.4 Macroeconomic Policy in an Open Economy 14.5 The Conduct of Monetary Policy:
with Flexible Exchange Rates 504 Rules Versus Discretion 565
A Fiscal Expansion 504 The Monetarist Case for Rules 566
A Monetary Contraction 507 Rules and Central Bank Credibility 568
The Taylor Rule 570
13.5 Fixed Exchange Rates 509
Other Ways to Achieve Central Bank
Fixing the Exchange Rate 510 Credibility 572
Monetary Policy and the Fixed Exchange Rate 512 APPLICATION Inflation Targeting 574
Fixed Versus Flexible Exchange Rates 515
Currency Unions 516
Chapter 15 Government Spending and Its
APPLICATION European Monetary Unification 517 Financing 580
APPLICATION Crisis in Argentina 519
15.1 The Government Budget: Some Facts and
Appendix 13.A orked-Out Numerical Exercise for the
W Figures 580
Open-Economy IS–LM Model 528 Government Outlays 580
Taxes 583
Appendix 13.B n Algebraic Version of the Open-
A
Economy IS–LM Model 531 Deficits and Surpluses 586
Detailed Contents xiii
xv
xvi Preface
trade deficit and the relationship between government budget deficits and
trade deficits. In Chapter 13 we use a simple supply–demand framework to
examine the determination of exchange rates. The chapter features innovative
material on fixed exchange rates and currency unions, including an explana-
tion of why a currency may face a speculative run. Revised coverage: The text
includes a discussion of the series of financial crises in Europe that began in
2008 (Chapter 13).
■■ Business cycles. Our analysis of business cycles begins with facts rather than
theories. In Chapter 8 we give a history of U.S. business cycles and then de-
scribe the observed cyclical behavior of a variety of important economic vari-
ables (the “business cycle facts”). In Chapters 9–11 we evaluate alternative
classical and Keynesian theories of the cycle by how well they explain the
facts. New to this edition: The text now includes an analysis of the Great Reces-
sion (Chapter 8), and a description of the jobless recoveries that have occurred
following the three most recent recessions (Chapter 10).
■■ Fiscal policy. The effects of macroeconomic policies are considered in nearly
every chapter, in both theory and applications. We present classical (Chapter 10),
Keynesian (Chapter 11), and monetarist (Chapter 14) views on the appropriate
use of policy. New or substantially revised coverage: The text now discusses new
research measuring the impact of government purchases on the economy.
■■ Labor market issues. We pay close attention to issues relating to employment,
unemployment, and real wages. We introduce the basic supply–demand
model of the labor market, as well as unemployment, early, in Chapter 3. We
discuss unemployment more extensively in Chapter 12, which covers the
inflation– unemployment trade-off, the costs of unemployment, and govern-
ment policies for reducing unemployment. Other labor market topics include
efficiency wages (Chapter 11) and the effects of marginal and average tax rate
changes on labor supply (Chapter 15). New or substantially revised coverage: The
text now discusses the large rise in unemployment duration that occurred
during the 2007–2009 recession (Chapter 3).
A Solid Foundation
The eighth edition builds on the strengths that underlie the book’s lasting appeal
to instructors and students, including:
■■ Real-world applications. A perennial challenge for instructors is to help students
make active use of the economic ideas developed in the text. The rich variety of
applications in this book shows by example how economic concepts can be put
to work in explaining real-world issues such as the housing crisis that began in
2007 and the financial crisis of 2008, the slowdown and revival in productivity
growth, the challenges facing the Social Security system and the Federal budget,
the impact of globalization on the U.S. economy, and new approaches to making
monetary policy that were used in response to the financial crisis in 2008 and the
slow recovery since 2009. The eighth edition offers new applications as well as
updates of the best applications and analyses of previous editions.
■■ Broad modern coverage. From its conception, Macroeconomics has responded
to students’ desires to investigate and understand a wider range of macro-
economic issues than is permitted by the course’s traditional emphasis on
xviii Preface
A Flexible Organization
The eighth edition maintains the flexible structure of earlier editions. In Part 1
(Chapters 1–2), we introduce the field of macroeconomics and discuss issues of
economic measurement. In Part 2 (Chapters 3–7), we focus on long-run issues, in-
cluding productivity, saving, investment, the trade balance, growth, and inflation.
We devote Part 3 (Chapters 8–11) to the study of short-run economic fluctuations
and stabilization policy. Finally, in Part 4 (Chapters 12–15), we take a closer look
at issues and institutions of policymaking. Appendix A at the end of the book re-
views useful algebraic and graphical tools.
Preface xix
■■ Core chapters. We recommend that every course include these six chapters:
Learning Features
The following features of this book aim to help students understand, apply, and
retain important concepts:
■■ Detailed, full-color graphs. The book is liberally illustrated with data graphs,
which emphasize the empirical relevance of the theory, and analytical graphs,
which guide students through the development of model and theory in a step-
by-step manner. For both types of graphs, descriptive captions summarize the
details of the events shown.
■■ The use of color in an analytical graph is demonstrated by the figure on
the next page, which shows the effects of a shifting curve on a set of endo
genous variables. Note that the original curve is in black, whereas its new
position is marked in red, with the direction of the shift indicated by arrows.
Preface xxi
Figure 9.14
Price level, P
Monetary neutrality in the
AD–AS framework LRAS
If we start from general
equilibrium at point E,
a 10% increase in the
nominal money supply
shifts the AD curve up
H
and to the right from P2 SRAS 2
AD1 to AD2. The points 1. Money supply
on the new AD curve are increases by 10%
those for which the price E F
P1 SRAS 1
level is 10% higher at
each level of output de-
manded, because a 10% 2. Price level
increase in the price level increases by 10%
AD 2
is needed to keep the real AD 1
money supply, and thus
the aggregate quantity
of output demanded,
unchanged. In the new Y Y2
Output, Y
short-run equilibrium at
point F, the price level is
unchanged, and output
is higher than its full- A peach-colored “shock box” points out the reason for the shift, and a blue
employment level. In the “result box” lists the main effects of the shock on endogenous variables.
new long-run equilib- These and similar conventions make it easy for students to gain a clear
rium at point H, output understanding of the analysis.
is unchanged at Y,
■■ Key diagrams. Key diagrams, a unique study feature at the end of selected
and the price level P2 is
chapters, are self-contained descriptions of the most important analytical
10% higher than the ini-
tial price level P1. Thus
graphs in the book (see the end of the Detailed Contents for a list). For each
money is neutral in the key diagram, we present the graph (for example, the production function,
long run. p. 97, or the AD–AS diagram, p. 352) and define and describe its elements in
words and, where appropriate, equations. We then analyze what the graph
reveals and discuss the factors that shift the curves in the graph.
■■ Summary tables. Throughout the book, summary tables bring together the main
results of an analysis and reduce the time that students must spend writing and
memorizing results, allowing a greater concentration on understanding and
applying these results.
■■ End-of-chapter review materials. To facilitate review, at the end of each chapter
students will find a chapter summary, covering the chapter’s main points; a
list of key terms with page references; and an annotated list of key equations.
■■ End-of-chapter questions and problems. An extensive set of questions and prob-
lems includes review questions, for student self-testing and study; numeri-
cal problems, which have numerical solutions and are especially useful for
checking students’ understanding of basic relationships and concepts; analytical
problems, which ask students to use or extend a theory qualitatively; and
empirical problems that direct students to use data from the FRED database
of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and allow them to see for them-
selves how well theory explains real-world data. Answers to these problems
(except the empirical problems, the answers to which change over time) a ppear
xxii Preface
0\(FRQ/DE
MyEconLab is a powerful assessment and tutorial system that works hand-in-hand
with Macroeconomics. MyEconLab includes comprehesive homework, quiz, test,
and tutorial options, allowing instructors to manage all assessment needs in one
program. Key innovations in the MyEconLab course for Macroeconomics, eighth edi-
tion, include the following:
■■ Real-time Data Analysis Exercises, marked with , allow students and instruc-
tors to use the absolute latest data from FRED, the online macroeconomic data
bank from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. By completing the exercises,
students become familiar with a key data source, learn how to locate data, and
develop skills to interpret data.
■■ In the eText available in MyEconLab, select figures labeled MyEconLab Real-time data
allow students to display a popup graph updated with real-time data from
FRED.
■■ Current News Exercises, new to this edition of the MyEconLab course, pro-
vide a turn-key way to assign gradable news-based exercises in MyEconLab.
Every week, Pearson scours the news, finds a current article appropriate for
the macroeconomics course, creates an exercise around this news article, and
then automatically adds it to MyEconLab. Assigning and grading current
news-based exercises that deal with the latest macro events and policy issues
has never been more convenient.
Students and MyEconLab. This online homework and tutorial system puts
students in control of their own learning through a suite of study and practice
tools correlated with the online, interactive version of the textbook and other
media tools. Within MyEconLab’s structured environment, students practice
what they learn, test their understanding, and then pursue a study plan that
MyEconLab generates for them based on their performance on practice tests.
Preface xxiii
■■ Animated figures. Key figures from the textbook are presented in step-by-step
animations with audio explanations of the action.
■■ MySearchLab. This site includes research tools, steps for researching and w
riting
a paper, and avoiding plagiarism tutorials.
■■ The Instructor’s Manual offers guidance for instructors on using the text, solu-
tions to all end-of-chapter problems in the book (except the empirical ques-
tions), and suggested topics for class discussion.
■■ The Test Item File contains a generous selection of multiple-choice questions
and problems, all with answers. All questions and problems are also available
in TestGen.
■■ PowerPoint Lectures provide slides for all the basic text material, including all
tables and figures from the textbook.
Acknowledgments
A textbook isn’t the lonely venture of its author or coauthors but rather is the joint
project of dozens of skilled and dedicated people. We extend special thanks to
Denise Clinton, digital publisher; David Alexander, executive editor; and p roject
manager Lindsey Sloan, for their superb work on the eighth edition. For their
efforts, care, and craft, we also thank Kathryn Dinovo, senior production project
manager; Debbie Meyer, managing editor from Integra; Melissa Honig, executive
media producer; Noel Lotz, MyEconLab content lead; and Lori DeShazo, executive
marketing manager.
xxiv Preface
We also appreciate the contributions of the reviewers and colleagues who have
offered valuable comments on succeeding drafts of the book in all eight editions
thus far:
Ugur Aker, Hiram College Leo Chan, University of Kansas James E. Eaton, Bridgewater College
Krishna Akkina, Kansas State University S. Chandrasekhar, Pennsylvania State Janice C. Eberly, Northwestern University
University
Terence J. Alexander, Iowa State University Andrew Economopoulos, Ursinus College
Henry Chappell, University of South
Edward Allen, University of Houston Alejandra Cox Edwards, California State
Carolina
Richard G. Anderson, Federal Reserve University, Long Beach
Jen–Chi Cheng, Wichita State University
Bank of Martin Eichenbaum, Northwestern
St. Louis Menzie Chinn, University of California, University
Santa Cruz
David Aschauer, Bates College Carlos G. Elias, Manhattan College
K. A. Chopra, State University of New
Martin A. Asher, The Wharton School, Kirk Elwood, James Madison University
York, Oneonta
University
Sharon J. Erenburg, Eastern Michigan
of Pennsylvania Nan-Ting Chou, University of Louisville
University
David Backus, New York University Jens Christiansen, Mount Holyoke College
Christopher Erickson, New Mexico State
Daniel Barbezat, Amherst College Reid W. Click, George Washington University
University
Parantap Basu, Fordham University James Fackler, University of Kentucky
John P. Cochran, Metropolitan State College
Valerie R. Bencivenga, University of Texas Steven Fazzari, Washington University
of Denver
Haskel Benishag, Kellogg Graduate School J. Peter Ferderer, Clark University
Juan Carlos Cordoba, Rice University
of Management, Northwestern University
Steven R. Cunningham, University of Abdollah Ferdowsi, Ferris State University
Charles A. Bennett, Gannon University
Connecticut David W. Findlay, Colby College
Joydeep Bhattacharya, Iowa State
University Bruce R. Dalgaard, St. Olaf College Thomas J. Finn, Wayne State University
Robert A. Blewett, Saint Lawrence Betty C. Daniel, University at Charles C. Fischer, Pittsburg
University Albany—SUNY State University
Scott Bloom, North Dakota State University Joe Daniels, Marquette University John A. Flanders, Central Methodist College
Bruce R. Bolnick, Northeastern University Edward Day, University of Central Florida Juergen Fleck, Hollins College
David Brasfield, Murray State University Robert Dekle, University of Southern Adrian Fleissig, California State University,
California Fullerton
Viacheslav Breusov, University of
Pennsylvania Greg Delemeester, Marietta College R. N. Folsom, San Jose State University
Audie Brewton, Northeastern Illinois Wouter J. Den Haan, University of Kevin Foster, City University of New York
University Amsterdam J. E. Fredland, U.S. Naval Academy
Stacey Brook, University of Sioux Falls Johan Deprez, Texas Tech University James R. Gale, Michigan Technological
Nancy Burnett, University of Wisconsin, James Devine, Loyola Marymount University
Oshkosh University Edward N. Gamber, Lafayette College
Maureen Burton, California Polytechnic Wael William Diab, Cisco Systems William T. Ganley, Buffalo State College
University, Pomona Aimee Dimmerman, George Washington Charles B. Garrison, University of
John Campbell, Harvard University University Tennessee, Knoxville
Kevin Carey, American University Peter Dohlman, International Monetary Kathie Gilbert, Mississippi State University
Fund
J. Lon Carlson, Illinois State University Carlos G. Glias, Manhattan College
Patrick Dolenc, Keene State College
Wayne Carroll, University of Wisconsin, Roger Goldberg, Ohio Northern
Eau Claire Allan Drazen, University of Maryland University
Arthur Schiller Casimir, Western New Robert Driskill, Vanderbilt University Joao Gomes, The Wharton School,
England College Bill Dupor, Ohio State University University of Pennsylvania
Stephen Cecchetti, Brandeis University Fred C. Graham, American University
Donald H. Dutkowsky, Syracuse
Anthony Chan, Woodbury University University John W. Graham, Rutgers University
Preface xxv
Stephen A. Greenlaw, Mary Washington Adrienne Kearney, University of Maine Kathryn G. Marshall, Ohio State
College University
James Keeler, Kenyon College
Alan F. Gummerson, Florida International Patrick Mason, University of California,
Patrick R. Kelso, West Texas State
University Riverside
University
A. R. Gutowsky, California State Ben Matta, New Mexico State University
Kusum Ketkar, Seton Hall University
University, Sacramento
Stephen McCafferty, Ohio State University
F. Khan, University of Wisconsin, Parkside
David R. Hakes, University of J. Harold McClure, Jr., Villanova
Northern Iowa Jinill Kim, Korea University
University
Michael Haliassos, University of Maryland Robert King, Boston University
Ken McCormick, University of Northern
George J. Hall, Brandeis University Milka S. Kirova, Saint Louis University Iowa
John C. Haltiwanger, University Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, Princeton University John McDermott, University of South
of Maryland Michael Klein, Tufts University Carolina
James Hamilton, University of California, Peter Klenow, Stanford University Michael B. McElroy, North Carolina State
San Diego University
Kenneth Koelln, University of
David Hammes, University of Hawaii North Texas Randolph McGee, University of Kentucky
Reza Hamzaee, Missouri Western Douglas Koritz, Buffalo State College Michael McPherson, University of
State College North Texas
Eugene Kroch, Villanova University
Robert Stanley Herren, North Dakota Tim Miller, Denison University
Corinne Krupp, University of North
University Bruce Mizrach, Rutgers University
Carolina, Chapel Hill
Charles Himmelberg, Federal Reserve Bank Kishore Kulkarni, Metropolitan State Tommaso Monacelli, Boston College
of New York College of Denver B. Moore, Wesleyan University
Barney F. Hope, California State Krishna B. Kumar, University of Southern
University, Chico W. Douglas Morgan, University of
California California, Santa Barbara
Fenn Horton, Naval Postgraduate School Andre Kurmann, Federal Reserve Board Jon Nadenichek, California State
Christopher House, University of Michigan Maureen Lage, Miami University University, Northridge
E. Philip Howrey, University of Michigan John S. Lapp, North Carolina State K. R. Nair, West Virginia Wesleyan College
John Huizinga, University of Chicago University Emi Nakamura, Columbia University
Nayyer Hussain, Tougaloo College G. Paul Larson, University of North Dakota John Neri, University of Maryland
Steven Husted, University of Pittsburgh Sven R. Larson, Skidmore College Jeffrey Nugent, University of Southern
Matthew Hyle, Winona State University James Lee, Fort Hays State University California
Matteo Iacoviello, Boston College Junsoo Lee, University of Alabama Maurice Obstfeld, University of California,
Berkeley
Selo Imrohoroglu, University of Southern Keith J. Leggett, Davis and Elkins College
California Stephen A. O’Connell, Swarthmore College
Carol Scotese Lehr, Virginia
Kenneth Inman, Claremont McKenna Commonwealth University William P. O’Dea, State University of New
College York, Oneonta
John Leyes, Florida International University
Liana Jacobi, Washington University Heather O’Neill, Ursinus College
Xuan Liu, East Carolina University
Philip N. Jefferson, Swarthmore College Athanasios Orphanides, Federal Reserve
Ming Chien Lo, University of Virginia
Board
Urban Jermann, The Wharton School, Mary Lorely, Syracuse University
University of Pennsylvania Spencer Pack, Connecticut College
Cara Lown, Federal Reserve Bank
Charles W. Johnston, University of Walter Park, American University
of New York
Michigan, Flint Randall Parker, East Carolina University
Richard MacDonald, St. Cloud State
Barry E. Jones, Binghamton University University Allen Parkman, University of New Mexico
Paul Junk, University of Minnesota Thampy Mammen, St. Norbert College David Parsley, Vanderbilt University
James Kahn, Yeshiva University Linda M. Manning, University of James E. Payne, Eastern Kentucky
George Karras, University of Illinois, Missouri University
Chicago Michael Marlow, California Polytechnic Rowena Pecchenino, Michigan State
Roger Kaufman, Smith College State University University
xxvi Preface
Peter Pedroni, Williams College Libby Rittenberg, Colorado College Nicholas Souleles, The Wharton School,
University of Pennsylvania
Mark Pernecky, St. Olaf College Helen Roberts, University of Illinois, Chicago
Christopher Phelan, University Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard University David E. Spencer, Brigham Young
of Minnesota University
Rosemary Rossiter, Ohio University
Kerk Phillips, Brigham Young University Don Stabile, St. Mary’s College
Benjamin Russo, University of North
Paul Pieper, University of Illinois, Chicago Carolina Richard Startz, University of California,
Santa Barbara
Andrew J. Policano, State University of Heajin Heidi Ryoo, La Trobe University
New York, Stony Brook Gabriel Talmain, State University of New
Plutarchos Sakellaris, University of York, Albany
Richard Pollock, University of Hawaii, Maryland
Manoa Bryan Taylor, California State University,
Christine Sauer, University of New Mexico Los Angeles
Jay B. Prag, Claremont McKenna College
Edward Schmidt, Randolph–Macon College Susan Washburn Taylor, Millsaps College
Kojo Quartey, Talladega College
Stacey Schreft, Federal Reserve Bank of M. Dekalb Terrell, Kansas State University
Vaman Rao, Western Illinois University Kansas City
Henry S. Terrell, University of Maryland
Neil Raymon, University of Missouri, William Seyfried, Rose-Hulman Institute of
Columbia Technology Willem Thorbecke, George Mason
University
Colin Read, University of Alaska, Fairbanks Tayyeb Shabbir, California State University,
Dominguez Hills Stephen J. Turnovsky, University of
Michael Redfearn, University of North
Washington
Texas Andrei Shevchenko, Michigan State
University Michael Twomey, University of Michigan,
Robert R. Reed, University of Alabama
Dearborn
Virginia Shingleton, Valparaiso University
Charles Revier, Colorado State University
Michael Ulan, U.S. Department of State
Dorothy Siden, Salem State College
Patricia Reynolds, International Monetary
Victor Valcarcel, Texas Tech University
Fund Scott Simkins, University of North Carolina,
Greensboro Dietrich Vollrath, University of Houston
Jack Rezelman, State University of New
York, Potsdam Tara Sinclair, George Washington Ronald Warren, University of Georgia
University
Robert Rich, Federal Reserve Bank Chong K. Yip, Chinese University of
of New York Abdol Soofi, University of Wisconsin Hong Kong
A. B. A.
Wynnewood, PA
B. S. B.
Washington, DC
D. C.
Richmond, VA
Chapter 1 Introduction to
Macroeconomics
1.1 What Macroeconomics Is About
Summarize the Macroeconomics is the study of the structure and performance of national
primary issues economies and of the policies that governments use to try to affect economic
addressed in performance. The issues that macroeconomists address include the following:
macroeconomics. ■■ What determines a nation’s long-run economic growth? In 1890, income per capita
was smaller in Norway than in Argentina. But today, income per capita is
almost three times as high in Norway as in Argentina. Why do some nations’
economies grow quickly, providing their citizens with rapidly improving
living standards, while other nations’ economies are relatively stagnant?
■■ What causes a nation’s economic activity to fluctuate? The 1990s exhibited the
longest period of uninterrupted economic growth in U.S. economic history,
but economic performance in the 2000s was much weaker. A mild recession
in 2001 was followed by a weak recovery that lasted only until December
2007. The recession that began at the end of 2007 was worsened by the finan-
cial crisis in 2008, which contributed to a sharp decline in output at the end
Learning Objectives of 2008 and in early 2009. Why do economies sometimes experience sharp
1.1 Summarize short-run fluctuations, lurching between periods of prosperity and periods
of hard times?
the primary issues
■■ What causes unemployment? During the 1930s, one-quarter of the work force in
addressed in
the United States was unemployed. A decade later, during World War II, less
macroeconomics. than 2% of the work force was unemployed. Why does unemployment some-
1.2 Describe the times reach very high levels? Why, even during times of relative prosperity, is
a significant fraction of the work force unemployed?
activities and
■■ What causes prices to rise? The rate of inflation in the United States crept
objectives of
steadily upward during the 1970s, and exceeded 10% per year in the early
macroeconomists. 1980s, before dropping to less than 4% per year in the mid 1980s and drop-
1.3 Differentiate ping even further to less than 2% per year in the late 1990s. Germany’s infla-
tion experience has been much more extreme: Although Germany has earned
between the classical
a reputation for low inflation in recent decades, following its defeat in World
and Keynesian War I Germany experienced an eighteen-month period (July 1922–December
approaches to 1923) during which prices rose by a factor of several billion! What causes
macroeconomics. inflation, and what can be done about it?
1
2 Part 1 | Introduction
■■ How does being part of a global economic system affect nations’ economies? In the
late 1990s, the U.S. economy was the engine of worldwide economic growth.
The wealth gained by Americans in the stock market led them to increase
their spending on consumer goods, including products made abroad, spur-
ring greater economic activity in many countries. How do economic links
among nations, such as international trade and borrowing, affect the perfor-
mance of individual economies and the world economy as a whole?
■■ Can government policies be used to improve a nation’s economic performance? In
the 1980s and 1990s, the U.S. economy’s output, unemployment rate, and
inflation rate fluctuated much less than in the 1960s and 1970s. Some econo-
mists credit good government policy for the improvement in economic per-
formance. In the financial crisis of 2008, the Federal Reserve and the federal
government used extraordinary measures to keep banks and other financial
institutions from failing. But some economists criticized these measures for
going too far in trying to stabilize the economy, at the expense of creating
incentives for increased risk taking by financial firms. Other economists criti-
cize the Federal Reserve for not going far enough because the unemployment
rate remained persistently high for years after the end of the recession in 2009.
How should economic policy be conducted to keep the economy as prosper-
ous and stable as possible?
Macroeconomics seeks to offer answers to such questions, which are of great
practical importance and are constantly debated by politicians, the press, and the
public. In the rest of this section, we consider these key macroeconomic issues in
more detail.
1
Output is measured in Fig. 1.1 by two very similar concepts, real gross national product (real GNP)
until 1929 and real gross domestic product (real GDP) since 1929, both of which measure the physical
volume of production in each year. We discuss the measurement of output in detail in Chapter 2.
Chapter 1 | Introduction to Macroeconomics 3
2
A more exact definition is given in Chapter 8. Business cycles do not include fluctuations lasting only
a few months, such as the increase in activity that occurs around Christmas.
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DANCE ON STILTS AT THE GIRLS’ UNYAGO, NIUCHI
I see increasing reason to believe that the view formed some time
back as to the origin of the Makonde bush is the correct one. I have
no doubt that it is not a natural product, but the result of human
occupation. Those parts of the high country where man—as a very
slight amount of practice enables the eye to perceive at once—has not
yet penetrated with axe and hoe, are still occupied by a splendid
timber forest quite able to sustain a comparison with our mixed
forests in Germany. But wherever man has once built his hut or tilled
his field, this horrible bush springs up. Every phase of this process
may be seen in the course of a couple of hours’ walk along the main
road. From the bush to right or left, one hears the sound of the axe—
not from one spot only, but from several directions at once. A few
steps further on, we can see what is taking place. The brush has been
cut down and piled up in heaps to the height of a yard or more,
between which the trunks of the large trees stand up like the last
pillars of a magnificent ruined building. These, too, present a
melancholy spectacle: the destructive Makonde have ringed them—
cut a broad strip of bark all round to ensure their dying off—and also
piled up pyramids of brush round them. Father and son, mother and
son-in-law, are chopping away perseveringly in the background—too
busy, almost, to look round at the white stranger, who usually excites
so much interest. If you pass by the same place a week later, the piles
of brushwood have disappeared and a thick layer of ashes has taken
the place of the green forest. The large trees stretch their
smouldering trunks and branches in dumb accusation to heaven—if
they have not already fallen and been more or less reduced to ashes,
perhaps only showing as a white stripe on the dark ground.
This work of destruction is carried out by the Makonde alike on the
virgin forest and on the bush which has sprung up on sites already
cultivated and deserted. In the second case they are saved the trouble
of burning the large trees, these being entirely absent in the
secondary bush.
After burning this piece of forest ground and loosening it with the
hoe, the native sows his corn and plants his vegetables. All over the
country, he goes in for bed-culture, which requires, and, in fact,
receives, the most careful attention. Weeds are nowhere tolerated in
the south of German East Africa. The crops may fail on the plains,
where droughts are frequent, but never on the plateau with its
abundant rains and heavy dews. Its fortunate inhabitants even have
the satisfaction of seeing the proud Wayao and Wamakua working
for them as labourers, driven by hunger to serve where they were
accustomed to rule.
But the light, sandy soil is soon exhausted, and would yield no
harvest the second year if cultivated twice running. This fact has
been familiar to the native for ages; consequently he provides in
time, and, while his crop is growing, prepares the next plot with axe
and firebrand. Next year he plants this with his various crops and
lets the first piece lie fallow. For a short time it remains waste and
desolate; then nature steps in to repair the destruction wrought by
man; a thousand new growths spring out of the exhausted soil, and
even the old stumps put forth fresh shoots. Next year the new growth
is up to one’s knees, and in a few years more it is that terrible,
impenetrable bush, which maintains its position till the black
occupier of the land has made the round of all the available sites and
come back to his starting point.
The Makonde are, body and soul, so to speak, one with this bush.
According to my Yao informants, indeed, their name means nothing
else but “bush people.” Their own tradition says that they have been
settled up here for a very long time, but to my surprise they laid great
stress on an original immigration. Their old homes were in the
south-east, near Mikindani and the mouth of the Rovuma, whence
their peaceful forefathers were driven by the continual raids of the
Sakalavas from Madagascar and the warlike Shirazis[47] of the coast,
to take refuge on the almost inaccessible plateau. I have studied
African ethnology for twenty years, but the fact that changes of
population in this apparently quiet and peaceable corner of the earth
could have been occasioned by outside enterprises taking place on
the high seas, was completely new to me. It is, no doubt, however,
correct.
The charming tribal legend of the Makonde—besides informing us
of other interesting matters—explains why they have to live in the
thickest of the bush and a long way from the edge of the plateau,
instead of making their permanent homes beside the purling brooks
and springs of the low country.
“The place where the tribe originated is Mahuta, on the southern
side of the plateau towards the Rovuma, where of old time there was
nothing but thick bush. Out of this bush came a man who never
washed himself or shaved his head, and who ate and drank but little.
He went out and made a human figure from the wood of a tree
growing in the open country, which he took home to his abode in the
bush and there set it upright. In the night this image came to life and
was a woman. The man and woman went down together to the
Rovuma to wash themselves. Here the woman gave birth to a still-
born child. They left that place and passed over the high land into the
valley of the Mbemkuru, where the woman had another child, which
was also born dead. Then they returned to the high bush country of
Mahuta, where the third child was born, which lived and grew up. In
course of time, the couple had many more children, and called
themselves Wamatanda. These were the ancestral stock of the
Makonde, also called Wamakonde,[48] i.e., aborigines. Their
forefather, the man from the bush, gave his children the command to
bury their dead upright, in memory of the mother of their race who
was cut out of wood and awoke to life when standing upright. He also
warned them against settling in the valleys and near large streams,
for sickness and death dwelt there. They were to make it a rule to
have their huts at least an hour’s walk from the nearest watering-
place; then their children would thrive and escape illness.”
The explanation of the name Makonde given by my informants is
somewhat different from that contained in the above legend, which I
extract from a little book (small, but packed with information), by
Pater Adams, entitled Lindi und sein Hinterland. Otherwise, my
results agree exactly with the statements of the legend. Washing?
Hapana—there is no such thing. Why should they do so? As it is, the
supply of water scarcely suffices for cooking and drinking; other
people do not wash, so why should the Makonde distinguish himself
by such needless eccentricity? As for shaving the head, the short,
woolly crop scarcely needs it,[49] so the second ancestral precept is
likewise easy enough to follow. Beyond this, however, there is
nothing ridiculous in the ancestor’s advice. I have obtained from
various local artists a fairly large number of figures carved in wood,
ranging from fifteen to twenty-three inches in height, and
representing women belonging to the great group of the Mavia,
Makonde, and Matambwe tribes. The carving is remarkably well
done and renders the female type with great accuracy, especially the
keloid ornamentation, to be described later on. As to the object and
meaning of their works the sculptors either could or (more probably)
would tell me nothing, and I was forced to content myself with the
scanty information vouchsafed by one man, who said that the figures
were merely intended to represent the nembo—the artificial
deformations of pelele, ear-discs, and keloids. The legend recorded
by Pater Adams places these figures in a new light. They must surely
be more than mere dolls; and we may even venture to assume that
they are—though the majority of present-day Makonde are probably
unaware of the fact—representations of the tribal ancestress.
The references in the legend to the descent from Mahuta to the
Rovuma, and to a journey across the highlands into the Mbekuru
valley, undoubtedly indicate the previous history of the tribe, the
travels of the ancestral pair typifying the migrations of their
descendants. The descent to the neighbouring Rovuma valley, with
its extraordinary fertility and great abundance of game, is intelligible
at a glance—but the crossing of the Lukuledi depression, the ascent
to the Rondo Plateau and the descent to the Mbemkuru, also lie
within the bounds of probability, for all these districts have exactly
the same character as the extreme south. Now, however, comes a
point of especial interest for our bacteriological age. The primitive
Makonde did not enjoy their lives in the marshy river-valleys.
Disease raged among them, and many died. It was only after they
had returned to their original home near Mahuta, that the health
conditions of these people improved. We are very apt to think of the
African as a stupid person whose ignorance of nature is only equalled
by his fear of it, and who looks on all mishaps as caused by evil
spirits and malignant natural powers. It is much more correct to
assume in this case that the people very early learnt to distinguish
districts infested with malaria from those where it is absent.
This knowledge is crystallized in the
ancestral warning against settling in the
valleys and near the great waters, the
dwelling-places of disease and death. At the
same time, for security against the hostile
Mavia south of the Rovuma, it was enacted
that every settlement must be not less than a
certain distance from the southern edge of the
plateau. Such in fact is their mode of life at the
present day. It is not such a bad one, and
certainly they are both safer and more
comfortable than the Makua, the recent
intruders from the south, who have made USUAL METHOD OF
good their footing on the western edge of the CLOSING HUT-DOOR
plateau, extending over a fairly wide belt of
country. Neither Makua nor Makonde show in their dwellings
anything of the size and comeliness of the Yao houses in the plain,
especially at Masasi, Chingulungulu and Zuza’s. Jumbe Chauro, a
Makonde hamlet not far from Newala, on the road to Mahuta, is the
most important settlement of the tribe I have yet seen, and has fairly
spacious huts. But how slovenly is their construction compared with
the palatial residences of the elephant-hunters living in the plain.
The roofs are still more untidy than in the general run of huts during
the dry season, the walls show here and there the scanty beginnings
or the lamentable remains of the mud plastering, and the interior is a
veritable dog-kennel; dirt, dust and disorder everywhere. A few huts
only show any attempt at division into rooms, and this consists
merely of very roughly-made bamboo partitions. In one point alone
have I noticed any indication of progress—in the method of fastening
the door. Houses all over the south are secured in a simple but
ingenious manner. The door consists of a set of stout pieces of wood
or bamboo, tied with bark-string to two cross-pieces, and moving in
two grooves round one of the door-posts, so as to open inwards. If
the owner wishes to leave home, he takes two logs as thick as a man’s
upper arm and about a yard long. One of these is placed obliquely
against the middle of the door from the inside, so as to form an angle
of from 60° to 75° with the ground. He then places the second piece
horizontally across the first, pressing it downward with all his might.
It is kept in place by two strong posts planted in the ground a few
inches inside the door. This fastening is absolutely safe, but of course
cannot be applied to both doors at once, otherwise how could the
owner leave or enter his house? I have not yet succeeded in finding
out how the back door is fastened.