Professional Documents
Culture Documents
1
In business you have to make a lot of important decisions
Time and again you will come across problems that are seeming unsolvable. In many
cases you don’t even know how to approach them… 2
In business you have to make a lot of important decisions
4
How the presentation is
organized
5
Management consulting techniques and frameworks come in handy both at work
as well as in private life. In this presentation you will see examples from both 6
I have divided the techniques and frameworks in 3 groups
Intermediate
Basic techniques and Advanced techniques
techniques and
frameworks and frameworks
frameworks
7
What you will see in this presentation is a part of my online course
where you can find also all the calculations in Excel
8
Basic tools used by
Management Consultants
9
Basic tools – introduction
10
In this section we will discuss the basic tools, techniques and
framework used by Management Consultants
11
Bottom-up approach
12
…the one you will for sure use is bottom-up approach where
you go from single (typical) consumer to market research
First you should Then you should try to By estimating the number of
imagine the guess his consumption typical users you and their
typical users level consumption level you get
the rough size of the market
13
…sometimes it makes sense to divide markets in segments and estimate
them separately (i.e. average and typical users, women and man, people
in different age groups or segmentation by lifestyle)
Segment A
Segment B
14
…lets do a simple example. Imagine that you want to make an
application for franchised restaurants
You pick the sample You count the number For the chosen area
group / area you want of all restaurants in the you count the
to estimate i.e. city area franchising restaurants
(here Warsaw)
+
First you should pick Next step is to calculate Once you have the number also
your sample – can be how many dogs they calculate how many households they
your friends or have are in the sample
neighbors
+
This requires us to estimate additionally how much
We have the number of dogs in the food would average dog eat per year
whole country. Now we have to get
from here to the dog food
In this way using annual average consumption per dog and the
estimated number of dogs we are able to estimate how much food is
eaten every year in the country 17
Lets sum up the bottom-up approach
18
Top-down approach
19
When to use top-down approach?
20
For a change lets see how it would work with top-down
approach
You use the total market size You have to use some By applying the result from
to get to the size of the sort of sample the sample you can get to
segment in which you are measure the size of the segment in
interested which you are interested
21
… let’s use the top-down approach to estimate the market for
science fiction books sold in Poland….
You use the total number of books sold in your Then you go to the bookstore that belongs to the biggest
country chain of bookstore and check what percentage of the
shelves are take by science fiction books
23
Imagine that you were supposed to say how much you have to
Imagine that you were supposed to say how much you have to
spend to create a company that has revenue of $ 100 M dollar
spend to create a company that has revenue of $ 100 M dollar
24
You could use for that the so called backward reasoning
25
CC: Flickr; Cycle Track
Imagine that you were supposed to say how much you have to
spend to create a company that has revenue of $ 100 M dollar
Total Costs
$ 400 M
# of leads
÷ 200 K
Average revenue
Cost of 1 lead x # of customers
per customer
$2K 20 K
$5K
% Conversion
10% x
Revenues
$ 100 M
26
Compound effect
27
There are 2 types of compounding effect
Even if the growth is small applied over long period of A lot of small changes in many areas may produce a
time gives big end-results big end-results
Revenues
+38%
28
Issue tree
29
Issue tree - general
Analysis to be
Area of analysis Suspected problems Possible reasons performed
Area 1
30
Issue tree in Logistics –
examples
31
Issue tree - general
Analysis to be
Area of analysis Suspected problems Possible reasons performed
Area 1
32
Issue tree – example – chicken meat producer
Analysis to be
Area of analysis Suspected problems Possible reasons performed
Analysis of designed routes, their
Badly designed routes length and the influence of possible
changes
High costs of transport per ton of Analysis of fuel usage and kilometers
Too big fuel usage
goods covered by vehicles
33
Issue tree in Retail –
examples
34
When you are talking about retail you should have a look a
the following areas
35
Below you can see example of issue tree in Retail Chain
Development
Analysis to be
Area of analysis Suspected problems Possible reasons performed
Low LFL due to cannibalization (on- Analyze the change in sales after opening
line, new stores in old locations) new stores / on-line introduction
No support from the shopping malls Analysis of contracts with shopping malls
37
Low hanging fruits
38
39
Get the low hanging fruits first. By
low hanging fruits we mean things
with big impact and easy to
accomplish
40
How to find low hanging fruits?
Impact
High
2 1
Things with big impact yet Things with big impact that
expensive, time consuming require little work
No 3
Big Small 41
Low hanging fruits for a blog could look like this
Impact
Office hours
Additional resources
Events
4 3
Slideshare presentation
Sniply
Youtube
Low Resources needed
Twitter
Big Small 42
Priorities
43
Priorities
44
What you do depending on the rules you use?
Time
needed for
When completion FCFS LCFS Deadline SOT
Task it came Deadline
In minutes
45
Benchmarks
46
47
Why you need benchmarks?
48
There are 2 types of benchmarks
Internal External
49
By comparing your results and benchmarks you can decide
what to improve, work on
Current Internal External
Area Unit result Conclusions
50
Applying 80/20 rule
in practice
51
80/20
52
What does 80/20 mean in practice
53
Here are 3 examples of using 80/20 rules
Area Description
Learning Visual Learn only the 5 most used items that will take only 20% of full course and will
Basic for Excel be used by in you in 80% cases
Checking You check only 20% of competitors that sales add-up to 80% of the market
competitors
Salsa course Go through 20% of the course to learn the moves and the figures used in 80% of
cases
54
Opportunity tree
55
Opportunity tree Opportunities
YouTube
Traffic Ads on instagram
Affiliation with bloggers
# of transactions Guest blogging
Gross Margin
Long form / Short form
% conversion Reduction of delivery methods
No account
Sales Emailing for people abandoning cart
56
Cost drivers
57
Cost drivers are causing the cost to go or down
# of slides
Cost of 1 hour
58
KPIs and business drivers
59
To understand and analyze business you have to identify the drivers / KPIs
that a key for specific business and translate it into a model in Excel
Cost of traffic
x
Rent
Ratio of visitors +
to searches
Total searches % conversion
People
Average cost of 1
x visit
Development
# transactions
60
Imagine that you have to estimate typical family spending's. You can take
into account countless number of factors…..
61
…or you can limit yourself to the most important ones i.e. number of kids,
size of house, main repetitive spending like food.
62
To measure the selected factors you have to use some sort of KPIs
Spending per 1
person per month
per category
# of people in
average family
63
In the next lectures I will show you how to define and use
KPIs and business drivers
64
KPIs for cinema –
Introduction
65
In this section as a practice you will have to define the KPIs of
the cinema business and use it to see how we can improve
the profits of this business
66
We will start with the problem. You will define the KPIs and then use it to
create the analysis in Excel as well as the slide with results
Cost of traffic
x
Rent
Ratio of visitors +
to searches
Total searches % conversion
People
Average cost of 1
x visit
Development
# transactions
67
To get the most out of the examples please try to solve the
problem on your own before going to the solution
Go to next lecture
Pause the course and
Problem set / Case where you will find the
solve the problem on
study step by step solution to
your own
the problem set
68
KPIs for cinema
69
Imagine that you were responsible for managing the cinema. What KPIs
metrics you would look at to see whether you are doing a good job?
70
Let’s see what KPIs you should look at
# of People
Rent
Total capacity in
% Utilization
tickets Average wages x
People +
x
# sold tickets
72
What rules should be used when building analysis in Excel
73
The most useful functions
presentation
75
Power Point presentations
76
What rules should be used for Power Point Presentations
Agenda Backup
Market size
In milions of EUR
Total 7 380 7 734 7 717 7 785 7 859 7 963 8 058 8 198 8 334 8 459 8 570 8 692 8 811 8 914 9 012 9 119 9 209
1 641 1 658
1 605 1 622
1 565 1 586
1 523 1 543
1 476 1 500
1 433 1 450
1 392 1 389 1 401 1 415
1 328
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Source: Euromonitor 78
Market size Toys
Hardware
In millions of EUR Fashion
Total
7 380 7 734 7 717 7 785 7 859 7 963 8 058 8 198 8 334 8 459 8 570 8 692 8 811 8 914 9 012 9 119 9 209
1 641 1 658
1 605 1 622
1 565 1 586
1 523 1 543
1 476 1 500
1 328
1 392 1 389 1 401 1 415 1 433 1 450
The kids
3 374 3 407
market will
3 260 3 298 3 334
2 862 2 855 2 880 2 908 2 946 2 981 3 033 3 084 3 130 3 171 3 216
develop
2 804
slowly as a
result of low
GDP growth
3 806 3 857 3 911 3 965 4 011 4 055 4 104 4 144
3 480 3 473 3 503 3 537 3 583 3 626 3 689 3 750
3 247
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Source: Euromonitor 79
The kids market will develop slowly growing as a result of GDP growth
Market size
Toys
In millions of EUR Hardware
Fashion
Total
7 380 7 734 7 717 7 785 7 859 7 963 8 058 8 198 8 334 8 459 8 570 8 692 8 811 8 914 9 012 9 119 9 209
1 641 1 658
1 605 1 622
1 565 1 586
1 523 1 543
1 476 1 500
1 328
1 392 1 389 1 401 1 415 1 433 1 450
Toys make
3 374 3 407
30% of the
3 260 3 298 3 334
2 862 2 855 2 880 2 908 2 946 2 981 3 033 3 084 3 130 3 171 3 216
kids market
2 804
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Source: Euromonitor 80
Check also my other presentations
Management Consulting
Presentations
Practical guide how to prepare a great presentation
presentation
81
What you will see in this presentation is a part of my online course
where you can find also all the calculations in Excel
82
Intermediate tools used by
Management Consultants
83
Intermediate tools –
introduction
84
In this section we will discuss the intermediate tools, techniques and
frameworks used by Management Consultants
Representative
Rankings Scenario Analysis
element analysis
Lean Manfuacturing
85
Rankings – introduction
86
Quite often you have options that you want to somehow compare and
rank them
Option 1
Option 3
Option 4
Option 5
87
Thanks to the ranking you not only give points but you can sort them
from the most wanted to the least desired
Option 5
Option 3
Option 1
Option 4
88
You may use ranking for many things
89
Rankings are done in 5 steps
At least 3-4 criteria, You have to define For defined options Define the rule / Using the ranking
preferably all options that you gather data on the function that and additional
independent will be choosing criteria so you are assigns points for criteria you can
Every criteria from able to calculate every criteria pick the preferred
should have a the points for every Calculate the score option
weight – not all criteria and option for every option-
criteria have to criteria
have the same Using weights
importance calculate the total
score
Use the total score
to rank the options
You can use
additional criteria
90
In the next lectures I will show you how to create and use the
rankings in practice. I will be talking about 2 examples
91
How to expand the
brand – Introduction?
92
Let’s have a look at milk producer that wants to expand its product
range
Leader in milk
25 products considered
93
There are things you should consider when selecting the right
products to be developed within the same brand
Is the product consistent with the Are there customers who already
current brand? think that you have the product?
94
How to expand the
brand – Solution
95
After we have gone through research we got the following results.
This suggest that we should start with yoghurt and yellow cheese
Market size
In mln USD
350
Yoghurt
300
250
Milk Desserts
(i.e. Monte)
200
Yellow (swiss)
cheese
150 Ice cream
Cottage cheese
100
50 Feta Cheddar
0
0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3
Attractiveness
(1-Low;3-High) 96
For more details on the case study go to my online course. You will
find there all details and Excels with calculations
97
Expansion strategy into other
countries - Example
98
Let’s imagine that you were to create an expansion plan for
expansion into new countries for a fashion brand
99
As you remember we have create a ranking of countries
100
For this we will use 4 criteria and we will estimate the size of
the markets in standard stores
101
Potential markets for expansion – Ranking vs Potential – region
Ranking of market attractiveness Potential of countries / regions to capture
(1-low; 6-High) assuming achieving share like in Poland
In standard stores
North America
2 000
South America
1 500
Indonesia
Western Europe
1 000
103
Scenario Analysis –
Introduction
104
Future is pretty difficult to figure out. You don’t know what will happen.
In those cases it is a good idea to consider a few different scenarios 105
Future is pretty difficult to figure out. You don’t know what will happen.
In this cases it is a good idea to consider a few different scenarios 106
Imagine that you are ice cream producer and you have to decide how much
ice-cream to produce for the next day without knowing what will be the
weather. Therefore, you have to consider different scenarios
100 70 30
107
The scenario analysis consists of 5 steps
You should be Concentrate on It is good to define Scenarios do not The aim of this step
analyzing the things drivers that have 3-5 different depend on you but is to pick the right
that are threatened big impact and big scenarios your behavior does. policy, given the
by different volatility In every scenario You can define a scenarios and their
scenarios and are the main drivers policy / behavior policy
important for your will have different that helps you in a The best policy is
business value specific situation the one that gives
It can be profit, You should assign you highest
NPV from new certain probability benefits (highest
investment, to every scenario goal function)
inventory you
should have etc.
108
In the next lectures I will show you how to create and use
scenario analysis in practice using an example from airplane
industry
109
Which price formula is the best
for my profits – Introduction
110
Now we will try to see which price formula is better for aircraft
maintenance service company
Consider 4 different
formulas
Consider 3 different
scenarios
111
Now we will try to see which price formula is better for aircraft
maintenance service company
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
$ 30 K $ 20 K $ 15 K
Materials
112
Now we will try to see which price formula is better for aircraft
maintenance service company
Times & Materials Fixed Fee Mixed Option 1 Mixed Option 2
Cost of Materials $ 25 K $ 25 K $ 25 K
Materials increased by 15%
markup
113
Which price formula is the best
for my profits – Solution
114
Now we will try to see which price formula is better for aircraft
maintenance service company
Consider 4 different
formulas
Consider 3 different
scenarios
115
It seems that the Mixed Option 2 price formula is the best
solution
Gross Margin
In thousands of USD
117
90 84
58
116
For more details on the case study go to my online course. You will
find there all details and Excels with calculations
117
Representative element
analysis – Introduction
118
In many cases there are a lot of options that you can consider. For simplicity you
want to limit the options and get down to 1-5 representative elements 119
There are usually 2 main ways to use representative element analysis
Average 3 options
120
Thanks to representative element analysis you can achieve a
lot of interesting things
121
In the next lectures I will show you how use the
representative element analysis in practice
Analysis of tariffs in a
convenience store
122
Convenience stores - Analysis
of tariffs - Introduction
123
Now we will analyze tariffs used by a Retailer operating chain of
convenience stores
Analysis to be
Area of analysis Suspected problems Possible reasons performed
Discrepancies in tariffs
Data needed:
Tariffs charged for each and every region
Number of points of sales
Average length of a route, average number of points of sales per route, average number of newspapers
delivered to a point of sales
124
Now we will analyze tariffs used by a Retailer operating chain of
convenience stores
Introduction:
You were employed by a company which distributes newspapers and FMCG goods to around 36 thousands
of small convenience stores.
Company consists of 18 virtually independent entities linked to regions.
Each and every entity uses different way of setting tariffs for delivering goods
Tasks:
Figure out a way to compare costs and try to estimate in which region costs are the lowest
Estimate current costs of distributing to points of sales
Estimate savings provided that you manage to lower costs to the level equal to the average of 3 lowest
tariffs
125
He is using different formulas in different regions
Region 1
Region 2
Region 3
Region 4
Region 5
Region 6
126
In order to be able to compare the results we will have create 2 typical
routes
127
Convenience stores - Analysis
of tariffs - Solution
128
After we have done the calculations we got the target to which more
expensive regions should strive weighted average for 3 leas
expensive regions
City route
Average daily cost per Point of Delivery in EUR
6,0
5,5 5,3 5,4 5,2 5,4
5.4
Rural route
Average daily cost per Point of Delivery in EUR
9,5
7,6 7,5
6,6 6,4 6,3 7.6
130
For more details on the case study go to my online course. You will
find there all details and Excels with calculations
131
Decision Tree Analysis
132
Quite often you have to make important decision faced with uncertainty. In those
situation it is very useful to apply the so called decision tree 133
Let’s have a look at example. You are to build a chocolate factory. You
have to decide on the size of it. Outcome
In M USD
60%
Big Demand 50
(EBITDA= $100 M)
Big Factory
(Invest $50 M)
40%
Small Demand -30
(EBITDA= $20 M)
What factory you
should build?
60% Big Demand 20
(EBITDA= $50 M)
Small Factory
(Invest $30 M)
Probability of Probability of
Expected Value = Outcome 1 x + Outcome 2 x
Outcome 1 Outcome 2
135
Once you have the outcomes for each and every option it is time to
calculate the expected value for both decisions Outcome
In M USD
60%
Big Demand 50
(EBITDA= $100 M)
Big Factory
18
(Invest $50 M)
40%
Small Demand -30
(EBITDA= $20 M)
What factory you
should build?
60% Big Demand 20
(EBITDA= $50 M)
Small Factory
(Invest $30 M) 12
137
Lean Manufacturing is a philosophy of working with little waste and highest
quality. It consists of many techniques that should be gradually mastered
* Sort,Set,Shine,Standardise,Sustain
** Total Productive Maintenance
*** Overall Equipment Efficiency 138
Check also my other presentations
presentation
139
OLE
140
Overall Labour Efficiency how much work there is in the work
?
Liczba
Dodatkowe
dostępnych lalka Stawka Godzinna
przychody
godzin
Workday
100% 100 %
No work due to
Lack of work Time left for real work
organizational
issues x
54% 54 %
Movement Work
x
70% 70 %
Work well done
98% 98%
OLE = 37%141
Removing bottlenecks
142
Bottlenecks are dangerous as their hurt the efficiency of the
whole system
143
What is the throughput of every system and where
is the bottleneck? x Stage capacity
Example 1
7 5 7
Example 2
5 10 20
Example 3
5 5 3
144
The are 4 rules that you should follow when it comes to
bottlenecks
Identify what is the bottleneck
Increase its throughput by lowering the time needed for
everything that goes through the bottleneck
Add new resources to bottleneck
Adjust everything to the bottleneck – so it works at the
same pace
145
Imagine that you are working in a company working in a
content marketing xx
# of post that can
be done in a week
by 1 person
20 5 7 10
We have almost doubled the production of post with the same resources
The same principles would apply if all the activities were done only by you – in this case it would mean that you
should not do too much research and illustration but rather improve the typing speed and match the number of
illustration and researches to your capacity in writing
If you have no impact on the process (you are one of the guys above just doing his own part and your boss does not
want to listen to you then simply do less – identify the bottleneck and adjust your speed to his speed.
On the other hand if you are the bottleneck then speed up because the whole team depends on you.
146
Critical Chain
147
One of the biggest problem for efficiency is the so called Parkinson’s Law –
Work expand so as to fill the time available for its completion
148
People when asked to evaluate the time certain things will take build in
buffers
Declared time
Buffer time
A B C Real execution
A+B+C
A+B+C
A B C Central buffer
149
What you will see in this presentation is a part of my online course
where you can find also all the calculations in Excel
150
Advanced tools used by
Management Consultants
151
Advanced tools –
introduction
152
In this section we will discuss the basic tools techniques and
framework used by Management Consultants
Decomposition
Analysis
153
Simulation analysis –
Introduction
154
Future is pretty difficult to figure out. You can use scenario analysis or
you check ALL the potential options and see which is optimal 155
Imagine for a second that you have a small bakery trying to decide what is the optimal
number of cakes that you should bake. You want to use simulations to find out 156
For the producer of cakes that at the same time can bake from 1 to 10
cakes using the simulation to find optimal production batch would
entail calculating the costs for all options
157
There are plenty of things you can do thanks to simulations
158
In the next lectures I will show you how to use simulation in
practice. I will be talking about 2 examples
159
What will be the effect of the
price increase – Introduction
160
The impact of the price change on your profit will depend on
a few factors
161
Imagine that you want to estimate the price change impact for a small
chain of local coffee shops
20 location in Poland
163
Imagine that you want to estimate the price change impact for a small
chain of local coffee shops
20 location in Poland
15 000
10 000
5 000
0
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30%
165
For more details on the case study go to my online course. You will
find there all details and Excels with calculations
166
Juice Producer – Simulation of the
whole Logistics System – Introduction
167
Let’s imagine that you have to optimize the distribution system of a
juice producer located in Serbia
Introduction:
You were employed by a producer of local brand of Cola to carry out an operational audit.
The producer located in Serbia where it has a significant market share. Currently, apart from warehouse next to the production facility
in Subotica, it has two additional distribution centers in Novi Sad and Belgrade.
Currently, the goods are collected from the distribution centers by shops
Tasks:
Calculate the cost of the current system assuming that you have warehouses in all locations
Assume that you use 24-tonnes trucks for transportation
168
Let’s imagine that you have to optimize the distribution system of a
juice producer located in Serbia
Subotica
Novi Sad
Belgrade
Kragujevac
Prijepolje
Niš
169
Juice Producer – Simulation of the
whole Logistics System – Solution
170
At the end thanks to the simulation we get the optimal distribution
system
3 015
2 788
2 657
2 431
1 838
1 611
1 480
1 254
Warehouse only in Warehouse only in Warehouse in Warehouse only in Warehouse in Warehouse in Novi Warehouse in all No warehouses
Subotica Novi Sad Subotica and Novi Belgrade Subotica and Sad and Belgrade locations
Sad Belgrade
171
For more details on the case study go to my online course. You will
find there all details and Excels with calculations
172
Decomposition analysis –
Introduction
173
Decomposition analysis shows you what are the components, driving
forces behind certain phenomena. Imagine for a second that we are
analyzing revenue growth of a FMCG company
Revenue Growth
174
We would like to break it down to following components. This
decomposition helps us see how we managed to grow the
revenues
Others
175
Decomposition analysis helps you achieve a lot of goals
176
In the next lectures I will show you how to create and use the
decomposition in practice
177
LFL analysis – Introduction
178
LFL analysis is the analysis of the change in revenues for stores that have
been at least for 12 months. In this analysis through decomposition we try
to pinpoint the most important aspects
Driving KPI
Average
Total # of
transaction
transactions
value (ATV)
x x
Average first
% of first price
price
179
Imagine that you identify the driving factors in LFL growth in the last
few years
20 location in Poland
180
Since in the case of the coffee shops we do not give many discounts we will
stop at the level of Average Sales Price (ASP) and not go deeper
Driving KPI
Average
Total # of
transaction
transactions
value (ATV)
x x
181
LFL analysis – Solution in
Power Point
182
Imagine that you want to estimate the price change impact for a small
chain of local coffee shops
20 location in Poland
183
LFL analysis shows that the biggest impact was from IPT increase.
Second in importance was traffic
Driving KPI
Average
Total # of
transaction
transactions
value (ATV)
184
LFL analysis shows that the biggest impact was from IPT increase.
Second in importance was traffic
Total LFL sales growth by KPI for stores existing since 2015
In millions of USD
2 170
8 679
2 025
3 472 29 306
12 960
Revenue 2015 Traffic Impact Conversion Impact IPT Impact ASP Impact Revenue 2018
185
For more details on the case study go to my online course. You will
find there all details and Excels with calculations
186
Feasibility analysis –
Introduction
187
In feasibility analysis you want to check whether something is possible or
what are the limitations that you have to consider 188
In feasibility analysis you are given the goal you have to achieve. Now
you need either to find the limitation or alternative ways to reach that
goal
Way to achieve
Limitation 1 Limitation 1
the goal 1
Way to achieve
Limitation 2 Limitation 2
the goal 2
Goal
Way to achieve
Limitation 3 Limitation 3
the goal 3
Way to achieve
Limitation 4 Limitation 4
the goal 4
189
There are plenty of things you can do with feasibility analysis
Identify the limitation you have to Find directions in which you can to
remove to achieve the goal develop your company
190
In the next lectures I will show you how to create and use in
practice the feasibility analysis
191
How to increase the net profit
by 10% – Introduction
192
Imagine that you supporting a beauty saloon chain in Easter Europe in
their attempt to increase net profit
50 location in Easter
Europe
194
How to increase the net profit
by 10% – Solution
195
Imagine that you supporting a beauty saloon chain in Easter Europe in
their attempt to increase net profit
50 location in Easter
Europe
We increase the price for manicure for all customers 5% increase of the price
Option 1 –
Increase price Current price is 25 USD per visit
Option 2 – We increase the frequency of visiting our beauty shop Increase from 1.4 to 1.6 visit per
Increase Currently, an average customer does 1.4 visit per customer
Frequency customer
Option 3 – We increase customer bases size – acquire new customers Increase customer base from 60 K
Increase Currently, we have 60 K of customers per shop to 68 K
Customer Base
197
For more details on the case study go to my online course. You will
find there all details and Excels with calculations
198
Sensitivity analysis
– Introduction
199
Once you come up with an optimal solution you want to see how
sensitive it is to small changes in underlying assumptions. The solution
can be pretty stable….
Current Solution - Current Solution - Current Solution - Current Solution - Current Solution Current Solution Current Solution Current Solution Current Solution
7% 5% 2% 1% +1% +2% +5% +7%
200
… or the contrary very volatile
Current Solution - Current Solution - Current Solution - Current Solution - Current Solution Current Solution Current Solution Current Solution Current Solution
7% 5% 2% 1% +1% +2% +5% +7%
201
You want to carry out a sensitivity analysis for many reasons
You want to prepare for the risk / Sensitivity analysis is basis for
hedge against the risk managing a portfolio of projects
202
Sensitivity analysis –
Solution
203
As you can see the revenue growth is very sensitive to changes in
IPT but not that much to changes in conversion rate
Revenue growth between 2019 and 2015 depending on the increase of IPT (Items per Transaction)
In millions of USD
15 656 16 278
14 412 15 034
13 167 13 789
11 923 12 545
10 679 11 301
9 435 10 057
8 191 8 813
7 569
0,03 0,04 0,05 0,06 0,07 0,08 0,09 0,10 0,11 0,12 0,13 0,14 0,15 0,16 0,17
Revenue growth between 2019 and 2015 depending on the increase of % Conversion
In millions of USD
12 234 12 390 12 545 12 701 12 856 13 012
11 301 11 457 11 612 11 768 11 923 12 079
10 835 10 990 11 146
0,30% 0,40% 0,50% 0,60% 0,70% 0,80% 0,90% 1,00% 1,10% 1,20% 1,30% 1,40% 1,50% 1,60% 1,70%
204
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