The

Alternate
Opinion
Quantitative & Alternates
The Global Liquidity Tracker: Some respite after 6-weeks as redemptions halt. Most flows into Largecap/ETFs/Healthcare/Staple funds

Sunil Jain | sunil.jain@elaracapital.com | +91 22 6164 8531 27 May 2022

EQUITY FLOWS- Respite after 6-weeks. Most flows into Largecap/ETFs/Healthcare/Staple funds
All Equity Funds, NAV Line
After 6 weeks of consistent redemptions, we saw 260

respite this week with overall inflows of $20.5bn into All Equity Funds, NAV Line
200 Week Avg
Equity funds. After one big round of price
destruction, we are seeing some bottom fishing 210
interest in markets. All inflows were in US ETFs Big support
($24.4bn) while long-only funds saw more
2018 2020 5% lower

redemptions (-$2.7bn). 2016

160
Growth style flows remain weaker than Value flows LONG TERM SUPPORT LINE

although a big portion of money continues to move Broke in 2011

2010
into Blended style. All inflows were in Largecap 110
2000

funds ($20bn). Midcap saw very small inflow Broke

in 2008
($421mn) after 7 weeks of outflows but redemptions
from Smallcap funds ($523mn) continued for 10th Source: EPFR, Elara Securities Research, Bloomberg, Capital Line, ACE MF
week in row. 60

Nov-01

Nov-16
Nov-00

Nov-02

Nov-03

Nov-04

Nov-05

Nov-06

Nov-07

Nov-08

Nov-09

Nov-10

Nov-11

Nov-12

Nov-13

Nov-14

Nov-15

Nov-17

Nov-18

Nov-19

Nov-20

Nov-21
Within sectors, most money went into Healthcare &
Staples as markets were surrounded by risk-off All Equity Funds, 1 Year Rolling Returns
sentiments. Material flows remained weak with 5th +40% +53% +53%
Mar'21
week of outflows. Mar'04 Mar'10
40

Global Equity NAV line is 5% higher than the big

support zone (which was only broken in 2000 and 20
2008). 1-year rolling returns of all Equity funds has
dropped to 9%. It has bottomed at 10-13% zone (- 0
20% during Covid). It only extended lower in 2001
& 2008 sell-off. -20
-8% -13% -11% -9%
Nov'12 Feb'16 Dec'18 -20% May'22
Mar'20
Global Junk bond spread over US 10-Year has -33% 1-Year rolling returns for All Equity Funds has bottomed in the range
cooled-off by 50bps from 5% to 4.5%. This will -40
Mar'03 of -10% to -13%. Currently we are close to that zone. It only drifted
remain a crucial thing to monitor. Our Asset class -60%
Mar'09
lower in 2000/2001 & 2008/2009 period
Risk Flow Indictor continued to drift lower on back -60 Source: EPFR, Elara Securities Research, Bloomberg, Capital Line, ACE MF
Nov-01

Nov-03

Nov-05

Nov-07

Nov-09

Nov-11

Nov-13

Nov-15

Nov-17
Jul-18

Nov-19

Nov-21
Jul-02

Jul-04

Jul-06

Jul-08

Jul-10

Jul-12

Jul-14

Jul-16

Jul-20
Mar-03

Mar-05

Mar-07

Mar-09

Mar-11

Mar-13

Mar-15

Mar-17

Mar-19

Mar-21
of stronger flows in Money market instruments.
Elara Securities (India) Private Limited 2
India Dedicated Funds, NAV Line- Drifting below crucial support indicating losing momentum
India Dedicated Funds, NAV Line
395

Breaking
very strong
support.
345 Has dented
medium term
Broke in Broke in trends in past
Jun'18 Feb'20

Broke in
Aug'15
295
Broke in
Feb'11

Broke in
245 Mar'08

195
Oct-10

Oct-15

Oct-20
Apr-08

Apr-13

Jan-17
Jun-17

Apr-18
Dec-09
May-10

Dec-14
May-15

Dec-19
May-20
Jan-07

Mar-11
Aug-11
Jan-12

Mar-16
Aug-16

Mar-21
Aug-21
Jan-22
Jun-07

Jun-12
Nov-07

Jul-09

Nov-12

Jul-14

Nov-17

Jul-19
Sep-08
Feb-09

Sep-13
Feb-14

Sep-18
Feb-19
Source: EPFR, Elara Securities Research, Bloomberg, Capital Line, ACE MF

India Dedicated funds performance has finally started breaking a strong support. In past, it has resulted in weaker performance for Indian
markets for some more time. Such breaks happened in 2008/2011/2015/2018/2020.

Elara Securities (India) Private Limited 3

Team Details
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Elara Securities (India) Private Limited 4

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