International Journal of Injury Control and Safety

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Geographical patterns and effects of human and

mechanical factors on road traffic crashes in
Nigeria

Richard Adeleke , Tolulope Osayomi & Ayodeji E Iyanda

To cite this article: Richard Adeleke , Tolulope Osayomi & Ayodeji E Iyanda (2020):
Geographical patterns and effects of human and mechanical factors on road traffic
crashes in Nigeria, International Journal of Injury Control and Safety Promotion, DOI:
10.1080/17457300.2020.1823996

To link to this article: https://doi.org/10.1080/17457300.2020.1823996

Published online: 30 Sep 2020.

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INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INJURY CONTROL AND SAFETY PROMOTION
https://doi.org/10.1080/17457300.2020.1823996

Geographical patterns and effects of human and mechanical factors on road

traffic crashes in Nigeria
Richard Adelekea , Tolulope Osayomia and Ayodeji E Iyandab
a
Department of Geography, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria; bDepartment of Geography, Texas State University, San Marcos, TX, USA

ABSTRACT ARTICLE HISTORY

Road traffic crashes (RTCs) remain an issue of global concern particularly in Nigeria where over 80 per- Received 7 June 2020
cent of these crashes are accounted by human and mechanical factors (HM). Many geographic studies Revised 28 August 2020
on RTCs, fatality and injury have largely focused on the spatial clustering and associative analysis of Accepted 11 September 2020
risk factors; with little known about the relative contribution of HM factors within the spatial context.
KEYWORDS
Hence, this study applied a spatial approach to the effect of HM factors on RTCs, fatality and injury Road traffic crashes;
across the regions of Nigeria. The data for this study were obtained from the National Bureau of regional analysis;
Statistics for the year 2017-2019 and were analysed using spatial analysis techniques such as Global mechanical; human; Nigeria
Moran’s I and spatial regression model. There was evidence of geographic clustering of RTCs, fatality
and injury in Nigeria. On one hand, route violation and sleeping on steering were significant predictors
in southern Nigeria while tyre burst was significant at the national level, in the north and rural areas.
The use of mobile phone while driving was a significant predictor at the national level. On the other
hand, overloading was associated with RTCs and injuries at the national level and northern Nigeria.
Speed violation was a prominent risk factor across the country. The study, based on observed regional
differentials, argues that extant laws and regulations on traffic safety should be strictly enforced to
curtail RTCs in the country.

Introduction persons (World Health Organization, 2019). From 2013 to

All over the world, road traffic crashes (RTCs) are a signifi-
cant cause of mortality. It accounts for 2.2 percent of all
deaths globally (Mohanty & Gupta, 2015). By 2030, the
number of deaths and disability resulting from RTC will
surpass that of malaria, tuberculosis, cerebrovascular disease
and HIV/AIDS (World Health Organization, 2017). Each
year, nearly 1.3 million people die as a result of RTCs, with
an average of 3,287 deaths a day. In addition, 20 to 50 mil-
lion people are injured or disabled (Association for Safe
International Road Travel, 2013). About 90 percent of the
world’s injuries are from the low and middle-income coun-
tries (LMICs), probably because of poor road infrastructure,
risky driving behaviour, inadequate implementation of driv-
ing codes, among others (Oginni, 2008). In relative terms, the
risk of road traffic deaths is three times higher in LMICs
than high-income countries (World Health Organization,
2019). Given the foregoing, RTCs certainly calls for great
concern due to its enormous economic and health implica-
tions (World Health Organization, 2017).
The situation in Nigeria is not in any way different from
the global picture. Every year, about 20,000 of the 11 million
vehicles in the country are involved in RTC (National
Bureau of Statistics, 2018). The number of lives lost to RTC
is equally disheartening. Road traffic fatalities in Nigeria are
one of the highest in Africa with over 39,000 deaths while
estimated rate per 100,000 deaths was reported at 21.4
2018, 28,094 deaths were recorded on account of RTCs
(Ndujihe & Esekhile, 2018). The economic loss from RTC
in the country is also huge with an estimated cost of N80
billion (Akinkuotu, 2017).
RTCs generally are attributed to a multitude of factors
such as the level of economic development, environmental,
human, traffic density, population size, household size, road
infrastructure, and mechanical factors (He et al., 2015;
Iyanda & Osayomi, 2020; Olawole & Olapoju, 2018;
Retallack & Ostendorf, 2019; Zeng et al., 2019). In Nigeria,
the effects of economic development, environment, traffic
density, household size and road infrastructure on RTCs
have been extensively examined (Aderamo, 2012; Akinyemi,
2019; Atubi, 2012; Gbadamosi; 2015; Iyanda, 2019; Olawole
& Olapoju, 2018; Osayomi, 2013). Take for instance,
Osayomi (2013), in his regional analysis of RTCs in Nigeria
found out that environmental and road infrastructure fac-
tors such as the length of asphalt concrete road, the length
of federal roads and urbanization were significant predictors
of RTCs. Similar findings were reported by Gbadamosi
(2015), who attributed the high occurrence of RTCs to the
relatively good quality of federal government roads. Hence,
road users are often very tempted to over speed which could
eventually lead to more frequent and fatal crashes. Atubi
(2012)’s examination of determinants of road traffic crashes
in Lagos State showed that traffic density is one of the

CONTACT Richard Adeleke richardadeleke08@gmail.com

ß 2020 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group
2 R. ADELEKE ET AL.
major causes of RTCs, as a result of high vehicle ownership
rate in the state. Like Osayomi (2013), Aderamo (2012) dis-
covered that a large population size among other predictive
factors was responsible for road traffic casualties and deaths
in Nigeria. Olawole and Olapoju (2018) attributed the
occurrence of tanker crashes in some states in Nigeria to
the influence of household size and further argued that large
household size translates to high demand for petroleum and
other associated goods which are frequently transported
by tankers.
As far as human and mechanical factors (HM factors)
are concerned, there are a number of studies on the individ-
ual-level influences on RTCs. From a spatial perspective,
Naboureh et al. (2019) using geographical information sys-
tem approach, found that lack of adherence to warning
signs and low level of education were significantly correlated
with RTCs in Khuzestan province of Iran. In a similar
study, Zhang et al. (2020) found overloading and driving
under the influence of alcohol to be significant predictors of
RTCs in Shenzhen, China. Also, Vaz et al. (2017)’s, spatial
assessment of road traffic injuries in the greater Toronto
area found a strong correlation with low level of education.
A spatio-temporal analysis of road traffic crashes in Indian
large cities by Mahata et al. (2019) revealed disparities
largely due to demographic differences among other factors.
There are other studies from theaspatial perspective. In
Accra, Mends-Brew et al. (2018) found out that road traffic
crashes are associated with the absence of road safety offi-
cials on the road and the outright disregard for road safety
measures by drivers. In Kisii of central district of Kenya,
mechanically defective vehicles, over speeding and overload-
ing were identified as significant predictors of RTCs (Osoro
et al., 2015). In a study in Mekelle town of northern
Ethiopia, RTCs were found to be significantly related with
the use of mobile phone while driving and the intake of
alcohol (Asefa et al., 2015). Rad et al. (2016) identified care-
less driving, violation of traffic laws and fatigue as major
factors of RTCs in south east Iran. In Wuhan, China, road
traffic crashes were found to be associated with driving
experience and high risk driving behaviour (Wang et al.,
2017). Inter alia, lack of vehicle maintenance, over speeding,
driving under the influence of alcohol and age have been
reported as contributory factors to RTCs in Nigeria
(Adejugbagbe et al., 2015; Adeyemi & Adewale, 2017;
Bekibele et al., 2007).
In Nigeria, HM factors account for 80 percent of RTCs
(Federal Road Safety Corps, 2017). However, the effect of
HM factors on RTCs, fatality and injury in Nigeria need to
be further explored particularly from the spatial perspective.
The perspective has strong potential not only to enable the
geovisualization of RTCs, fatality and injury but also deter-
mine significant state-level HM determinants. Mechanical
factors of RTC on one hand, involve the use of motorized
vehicles such as cars, trucks, buses and motorbikes without
adequate maintenance (Oyeyemi & Wakawa, 2003) leading
to mechanically defective vehicles. A vehicle is said to be
mechanically defective when it lacks minimum safety stand-
ards due to the lack of constant vehicle servicing and this
may lead to any of the following:’’ brake failure, tyre burst,
ball joint shaft breakdown, propeller and wheel pull out,
failed wipers during the rainy season, defective horn, elec-
trical faults, faulty wheel balancing and alignment, faulty
security gadgets, poor steering mechanism and leaking fuel’’
(Highway Code, 2020). The use of mechanically defective
vehicles in Nigeria has been attributed to economic factors.
Some vehicles in Nigeria reportedly use substandard spare
parts and tyres because their owners cannot afford superior
quality ones (Hamzat, 2016). Human factors on RTCs, on
the other hand, are directly attributed to the operator or
driver, and they include illiteracy, psychological factors,
poor eyesight, poor driving culture, over speeding, over
loading, driving under the influence of alcohol, reliance on
metaphysical powers, sleeping on steering, under age driv-
ing, temperament, dangerous overtaking, the use of mobile
phone while driving, among others (Highway Code, 2020;
Iyanda, 2018; Oyeyemi & Wakawa, 2003).
Hence, it is imperative to understand the effects these
factors could possibly have on RTCs, fatality and injury in
Nigeria particularly along regional fault lines and the rural-
urban divide. It is possible that the effects of HM factors on
RTCs, fatality and injury could be a reflection of existing
regional inequalities in the country. Consequently, this study
sought to provide answers to the following key questions:
What is the nature of the geographical distribution of RTCs,
injury and fatality in Nigeria? Which of the human and
mechanical factors significantly predicts RTCs, fatality and
injury in Nigeria and at which scale of analysis? To the best
of our knowledge, this research is most likely the first to
determine the relative contribution of human and mechan-
ical factors to RTCs, fatality and injury across regions of the
country. Understanding the contribution of human and
mechanical factors to the spatial patterns of RTCs in
Nigeria would inform evidence based action on accident
prevention and road safety in Nigeria.
Study area
Located around Latitude 4
and 14
north of the Equator
and Longitude 3
and 15
East of the Greenwich Meridian
(Figure 1) in the western part of Africa, Nigeria is made up
of 36 states and Abuja as the Federal Capital Territory
(FCT). It is bordered in the North by the Niger Republic,
south by the Atlantic Ocean, the west by the Benin Republic
and in the east by Cameroon. The country is divided into 6
geopolitical zones namely South-South, South-West, South-
East, North-West, North-East, and North-Central. Nigeria
has a population of over 200 million people with about 52
percent of its total population living in urban areas and 48
percent in rural areas (Worldometer, 2020). The country is
densely populated with about 151 persons per square kilo-
metres based on the 2006 National Population Census.
Nigeria is a developing country with a nominal GDP value
of $114.028 billion, of which the non-oil sector is the largest
contributor at 90.86 percent while the oil sector accounted
for 9.14 percent (National Bureau of Statistics, 2019a).
Nigeria has a long history of regional inequalities. These
 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INJURY CONTROL AND SAFETY PROMOTION
Figure 1. States in Nigeria.
inequalities are manifest in north-south and rural-urban
divides. Though there have been several policy attempts,
since British colonial rule to rectify these regressive pat-
terns, they have, at best, addressed the symptoms but not
the root causes of uneven development in the country’s
space economy.
Data sources and study variables
This study relied mainly on secondary data. The data on the
number of road traffic crashes, fatality and injury in the 36
states, and the Federal Capital Territory were obtained from
the National Bureau of Statistics for the year 2017 to 2019.
The data on human and mechanical causes of RTCs, fatality
and injury were also extracted from the National Bureau of
Statistics for the same year period. The variables under
human causes of RTCs, fatality and injury examined include
speed violation, use of mobile phone while driving, sleeping
on steering, driving under the influence of alcohol/drug
influence, fatigue, overloading, dangerous driving, wrongful
overtaking, route violation, road obstruction violation and
sign light violation while tyre burst, brake failure and mech-
anically deficient vehicles were the variables of mechanical
factors examined (Table 1). The variables are explained in
Table 1.
3
Data analysis
The data were analysed across five different scales of ana-
lysis as earlier indicated. RTCs, fatality, injury and HM fac-
tors data for the 3-year period were summed up and
divided by three to obtain the 3-year average for each state
and the FCT. The crash, injuries and fatalities indices were
expressed as the number of crashes, injuries and fatalities
per 100,000 population for all the states, respectively. These
indices were arrived at by dividing them by the population
of the state in question multiplied by 100,000. Because offi-
cial data on the percentage of population living in urban
and rural areas of Nigeria do not currently exist, state popu-
lation density, derived by dividing the state’s population by
area in square kilometres, served as a proxy measure for
urbanization. Hence, following Osayomi (2013), states with
a population density above the national average of 151 per-
sons per square kilometres were classified as urban while
those below were classified as rural. The states in each scale
of analysis are presented in Table 2.
The data were analysed with the aid of spatial statistical
techniques such as Global Moran’s I and spatial regression
model. Other statistical techniques used include Pearson
correlation and OLS regression. Spatial statistics is based on
the assumption of the non-independence of observations;
that is, nearby features are closely associated (Tobler, 1970).
4 R. ADELEKE ET AL.

Table 1. Study variables.

Variable Operational definition Terms defined
Road traffic crashes, fatalities RTCs, fatality and injury per 100,000 population
and injuries per state.
Human and mechanical factors
Speed violation Total number of road traffic crashes associated Speed limit is said to be violated when driving in excess of the
with speed violation per state prescribed speed limits for a category of vehicle or road
Use of mobile phone Total number of road traffic crashes associated Driving a vehicle while making use of phone even at traffic
while driving with use of phone while driving per state hold up
Sleeping on steering Total number of road traffic crashes associated When a driver is asleep while driving
with sleeping on steering per state
Driving under alcohol/ Total number of road traffic crashes associated Driving under the influence of alcohol, drug and other
drug influence with driving under alcohol per state psychotropic substances
Fatigue Total number of road traffic crashes associated Fatigue driving occurs after prolonged periods of continuous
with fatigue per state driving which results in mental and physical functional
disorder (Taylor & Dorn, 2006).
Overloading Total number of road traffic crashes associated Driving on the highway with a vehicle loaded with passengers
with overloading per state or goods above the prescribed number or weight
Wrongful overtaking Total number of road traffic crashes associated When a driver overtakes another vehicle when it is not safe or
with wrongful overtaking per state legal to do so thereby endangering the lives of the driver,
passengers and other road users
Dangerous driving Total number of road traffic crashes associated Driving recklessly which poses danger to the lives of the driver
with dangerous driving per state and other users as well as passengers. This could be in the
form of forcing other vehicles or road users off the road or
engaging in acts that could lead to crashes
Route violation Total number of road traffic crashes associated When a driver contravenes the provision of any traffic law relating
with route violation per state to direction or routes such as facing an oncoming vehicle or
plying routes not allowed for certain categories of vehicles
Road obstruction Total number of road traffic crashes associated The indiscriminate parking or repair of broken down vehicles
violation with road obstruction violation per state on the road or obstructing the road with any form of object,
or stopping in the highway in a manner that hinders free
traffic flow which endangers the lives of the driver and
other road users
Sign light violation Total number of road traffic crashes associated The failure to use headlight, rear lights between 1900 hrs and
with sign light violation per state 0620 hrs or when it is dark while on the high way. It also
involves the failure to use directional signal indicators when
necessary or the non-observance of traffic light
Tyre burst Total number of road traffic crashes associated When there is tyre blowout due to worn out tyres, overloading,
with tyre burst per state under inflation of tyres, use of substandard and expired tyres
Brake failure Total number of road traffic crashes associated Brake failure is the loss of the ability to stop the vehicle at a
with brake failure per state predetermined location and this can be caused due to
ruptured brake line, over heating of brake shoes, low fluid
in the master cylinder among others (Bmarc, 2016).
Mechanically deficient Total number of road traffic crashes associated A vehicle is said to be mechanically defective when it abnormally
vehicle with mechanically deficient vehicle per state emits dark fumes which impairs vision, driving a vehicle with
bent chassis, driving a damaged vehicle, among others
Source: National Bureau of Statistics ( 2017, 2018, 2019b ), Federal Road Safety Corps (2012).

Table 2. Scales of analysis.

Southern Nigeria
Lagos, Osun, Ogun, Ondo, Ekiti, Oyo,
Edo, Rivers, Cross River, Abia,
Enugu, Akwa Ibom, Imo, Delta,
Bayelsa, Ebonyi and Anambra.
Source: Data analysis.
Northern Nigeria
Kano, Kaduna, Kwara, Jigawa, Benue,
Plateau, Zamfara, Kebbi, Sokoto,
Bauchi, Gombe, Yobe, Niger,
Nasarawa, Katsina, Kogi, Taraba,
Adamawa Borno and FCT.
Urban Nigeria
Abia, Akwa Ibom, Anambra, Bayelsa,
Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Edo,
Ekiti, Enugu, Imo, Jigawa, Kano,
Katsina, Lagos, Kaduna, Ogun,
Ondo, Osun, Oyo, Rivers and FCT.
Rural Nigeria
Adamawa, Bauchi, Benue, Borno,
Gombe, Kebbi, Kogi, Kwara,
Nasarawa, Niger, Plateau, Sokoto,
Taraba, Yobe and Zamfara.

Consequently, spatial statistics are used in the analysis of
spatial patterns, modelling spatial relationships and detect-
ing spatial clusters (Osayomi, 2019). The Global Moran’s I
was used to determine the nature of the geographical distri-
bution of road traffic crashes, fatality and injury. Global
Moran’s I value varies from 1 through 0 to þ1. If Moran’s
I value is near þ1, it is an indication of a high positive spa-
tial autocorrelation which also means that states with similar
values of RTCs, fatality and injury are clustered over space.
In contrast, a Moran’s I value near 1 is an indication of a
high negative spatial autocorrelation, which means that
states with dissimilar values of RTCs, fatality and injury are
adjacent. A random pattern is depicted when the z scores
are between 1.96 and þ1.96 with a p value greater than
0.05. On the other hand, the pattern is clustered when the
p value is less than 0.05.
After the examination of the geographical distribution of
RTCs, fatality and injury, their nature and strength of relation-
ship with human and mechanical factors were then investigated
with the aid of Pearson correlation technique. Only the signifi-
cant variables were entered into the OLS regression. The OLS
regression was used to determine the effects of human and
mechanical factors on RTCs, fatality and injury in the country.
The OLS regression model is stated below:
 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INJURY CONTROL AND SAFETY PROMOTION 5

Y ¼ b þ b1 x1 þb2 x2 þ . . . : þ e (1) of ‘y’ in a spatial unit is directly influenced by the value of

‘y’ in adjacent units (Anselin, 1988). In contrast, the spatial
where ‘Y’ denotes the dependent variable, ‘e’ is the error
error model (SEM) is used when there is spatial dependence
term; while ‘X’ are the explanatory variables. The Variance
among the error terms, and this involves the introduction of
Inflation Factor (VIF) of the OLS was used to test for multi-
spatial effects to the error terms. The Lagrange Multiplier
collinearity when the value of a given variable is about or
(LM) indicates which of the two models (SEM and SLM)
greater than 7.5. Despite the usefulness of OLS regression,
better explain the nature of the geographical distribution of
its major limitation, as earlier stated, is that it does not
‘Y’ which in this case is RTCs, fatality and injury. The
account for spatial dependence in the data.
model with a larger LM value and with a significant prob-
To make up for the limitation of OLS regression, spatial
ability is taken to be a better model. Notwithstanding, when
regression model developed by Anselin in 1988 was adopted
the LM value is statistically significant for the two models,
that is, spatial error model and spatial lag model. The spatial
the model with a lower p-value is selected (ibid.). Another
lag model (SLM) involves the addition of a spatially lagged
important parameter is the Akaike Information Criterion
variable to the OLS regression and it is used when the value
(AIC) which compares the OLS model with the spatial
regression model, and it tells which model has a better
Table 3. Summary of statistics.
goodness of fit. In this case, the model with a smaller AIC
Variable Mean Standard Deviation
value is regarded as a better fit. The cartographic designs,
Road traffic crashes 24.888 20.881
Fatality 20.210 21.160 OLS regression, spatial regression as well as Global Moran’s
Injury 16.297 17.264 I were analysed using ArcGIS 10.3.
Use of mobile phone while driving 10.081 57.947
Speed violation 105.540 82.182
Sleeping on steering 11.243 57.797
Driving under alcohol or drug influence 10.351 57.906
Results
Fatigue 11.243 57.837
Overloading 11.973 57.709
The statistical summary of the variables examined are pre-
Wrongful overtaking 16.810 13.072 sented in Table 3 with a wide variation in speed violation,
Dangerous driving 17.540 18.955 alcohol or drug influence, fatigue among others.
Route Violation 18.459 57.068
Road obstruction violation 14.378 57.439 There was a total of 115,241 RTCs, 92,384 injuries and
Sign light violation 12.675 57.603 14,746 fatalities between 2017 and 2019. Figures 2-4 show
Tyre Burst 16.918 14.823 the geographical distribution of RTCs, injuries and fatalities
Brake Failure 12.081 12.863
Mechanically deficient vehicle 5.864 5.558 in Nigeria with clear regional disparities. RTCs (26.32/
Source: Data analysis. 100,000), injuries (21.64/100,000) and fatalities (31.10/
100,000) were higher in northern Nigeria. Similarly, there

Figure 2. Geographical distribution of RTCs in Nigeria.

6 R. ADELEKE ET AL.

Figure 3. Geographical distribution of road crash injury in Nigeria. vf

Figure 4. Geographical distribution of road crash injury in Nigeria.

were higher RTCs (20.16/100,000), injuries (15.94/100,000) (I ¼ 0.301; Z ¼ 4.159; P < 0.05), fatality (I ¼ 0.301; Z ¼ 3.743,
and fatalities (24.75/100,000) in urban Nigeria than rural P < 0.05) and injury (I ¼ 0.307; Z ¼ 4.224; P < 0.05) in the
Nigeria. An examination of the spatial distribution of RTCs country indicates a significant clustered pattern. In other
 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INJURY CONTROL AND SAFETY PROMOTION 7

Table 4. Result of correlational analysis.

Correlation coefficient P value
Variable Fatality Injury RTCs Fatality Injury RTCs
Speed violation 0.800 0.816 0.816 0.000 0.002 0.000
Route violation 0.585 0.656 0.662 0.000 0.000 0.002
Sleeping on steering 0.605 0.500 0.531 0.002 0.000 0.000
Tyre burst 0.727 0.550 0.559 0.000 0.001 0.000
Use of mobile phone while driving 0.717 0.752 0.741 0.001 0.000 0.000
Overloading 0.242 0.601 0.608 0.366 0.003 0.001
Fatigue 0.403 0.458 0.468 0.421 0.451 0.241
Wrongful overtaking 0.116 0.119 0.209 0.219 0.081 0.062
Dangerous driving 0.370 0.348 0.168 0.451 0.361 0.600
Driving under alcohol/drug influence 0.242 0.388 0.3907 0.366 0.261 0.172
Road obstruction violation 0.306 0.395 0.404 0.211 0.312 0.320
Sign light violation 0.370 0.348 0.357 0.081 0.091 0.062
Brake failure 0.213 0.202 0.214 0.400 0.082 0.085
Mechanically deficient vehicle 0.315 0.364 0.375 0.281 0.381 0.321
Source: Data analysis.
Note: significant factors in bold print.

Table 5. Correlational analysis between factors.

SPV DUA TBT MDV BFL OVL WOT DGD RTV ROV SOS UMP FTG SLV
SPV – 0.002 0.005 0.131 0.001 0.200 0.021 0.001 0.102 0.201 0.102 0.310 0.002 0.276
DUA 0.002 – 0.320 0.384 0.076 0.271 0.322 0.879 0.031 0.269 0.205 0.012 0.357 0.180
TBT 0.005 0.320 – 0.201 0.253 0.024 0.024 0.290 0.179 0.162 0.245 0.185 0.255 0.167
MDV 0.131 0.384 0.201 – 0.397 0.173 0.273 0.350 0.383 0.867 0.088 0.022 0.381 0.380
BFL 0.001 0.076 0.253 0.397 – 0.047 0.315 0.126 0.208 0.075 0.177 0.220 0.381 0.040
OVL 0.200 0.271 0.168 0.173 0.047 – 0.315 0.268 0.337 0.386 0.205 0.015 0.011 0.063
WOT 0.021 0.322 0.024 0.273 0.315 0.315 – 0.380 0.206 0.228 0.338 0.330 0.275 0.370
DGD 0.001 0..879 0.290 0.350 0.126 0.268 0.380 – 0.297 0.393 0.227 0.278 0.002 0.308
RTV 0.102 0.031 0.179 0.383 0.208 0.337 0.206 0.297 – 0.271 0.019 0.115 0.275 0.205
ROV 0.201 0.269 0.162 0.867 0.075 0.386 0.228 0.393 0.271 – 0.064 0.019 0.315 0.275
SOS 0.102 0.205 0.245 0.088 0.177 0.205 0.388 0.227 0.019 0.064 – 0.218 0.122 0.227
UMP 0.301 0.012 0.185 0.022 0.220 0.015 0.330 0.278 0.115 0.019 0.218 – 0.097 0.071
FTG 0.002 0.357 0.255 0.381 0.381 0.011 0.275 0.002 0.275 0.315 0.122 0.097 – 0.250
SLV 0.276 0.180 0.167 0.380 0.040 0.063 0.370 0.308 0.205 0.275 0.227 0.071 0.250 –
Source: Data analysis.
Note: SPV (speed violation); DUA (driving under the influence of alcohol); TBT (tyre burst); MDV (mechanically deficient vehicle); BFL (brake failure); OVL (over-
loading); WOT (wrongful overtaking); DGD (dangerous driving); RTV (route violation); ROV (road obstruction violation); SOS (sleeping on steering); (use of mobile
phone while driving); FTG (fatigue); SLV (sign light violation).

words, states with similar RTCs, fatality and injury figures
are adjacent to one another.
Correlation coefficients among the study variables are
presented in Table 4 and 5.. The correlational analysis
revealed the HM factors were significant and strongly corre-
lated with RTCs, fatalities and injuries. It was also helpful in
eliminating multicollinearity among the independent varia-
bles. Hence, highly related explanatory factors with an
r > 0.7 (see Hauser, 1973; Mindrila & Balentyne, 2013), not
significantly and strongly correlated with the dependent var-
iables did not form part of the OLS regression model (see
Mollalo et al., 2020; Rahman et al., 2020). That said, the
result shows that speed violation, sleeping on steering, route
violation, the use of mobile phone while driving and tyre
burst were the major correlates of fatality while RTCs and
injury were significantly correlated with speed violation,
sleeping on steering, route violation, the use of mobile
phone while driving, tyre burst and overloading (Table 4).
In contrast, road obstruction violation, mechanically defi-
cient vehicles, driving under the influence of drug and alco-
hol and dangerous driving exhibited strong multicollinearity
(Table 5).
In the OLS regression, speed violation was the major
predictor of RTCs (Table 6), injury (Table 7) and fatality
(Table 8) at all the five scales. On the other hand, fatality,
RTCs and injury were associated with route violation and
sleeping on steering in southern Nigeria but not signifi-
cant at the national level, northern Nigeria, rural Nigeria
and urban Nigeria. Tyre burst was the major predictor of
fatality, RTCs and injury at the national level, northern
Nigeria and rural Nigeria only. Meanwhile, the use of
mobile phone while driving was significantly related with
fatality, RTCs and injury at the national level only.
Conversely, overloading was the major predictor of RTCs
and injury at the national level and northern Nigeria.
There was no evidence of multicollinearity among the
variables, with all the variables having a VIF value of less
than 7.5.
Given the fact that OLS regression does not account for
spatial autocorrelation, the Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test
was performed on the OLS residuals to determine which
spatial regression model is suitable to account for spatial
autocorrelation (Tranfaglia, 2018) in RTCs, fatality and
injury. As earlier mentioned, only the suitable spatial regres-
sion model would be selected and other dropped. With
regard to fatality, the LM tests showed that SEM was better
than SLM across the five scales of analysis (Table 8) but this
contradicts RTCs and injury. In their case, it was a mixed
8 R. ADELEKE ET AL.

Table 6. Summary of OLS regression and spatial regression results for RTCs.
National North South Urban Rural
Variable OLS SLM OLS SEM OLS SEM OLS SEM OLS SLM
Speed violation
Beta 0.828 0.830 0.780 0.785 0.855 0.859 0.754 0.762 0.830 0.839
Sig. 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.031 0.012 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
R2 0.789 0.809 0.810 0.821 0.698 0.752 0.748 0.757 0.801 0.807
VIF 3.033 – 1.832 – 1.032 – 2.201 – 1.360 –
AIC 60.76 58.01 70.30 64.87 78.56 69.31 79.91 76.87 56.98 54.23
Route violation
Beta – – – – 0.658 0.673 – – – –
Sig. – – – – 0.001 0.002 – – – –
R2
– – – – 0.851 0.858 – – – –
VIF – – – – 1.574 – – – –
AIC – – – – 59.01 56.98 – – – –
Tyre burst
Beta 0.499 0.510 0.521 0.528 – – – – 0.454 0.459
Sig. 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 – – – – 0.000 0.000
R2 0.645 0.666 0.784 0.801 – – – – 0.665 0.670
VIF 2.332 1.812 – – – – 2.985
AIC 56.65 55.09 65.64 58.00 – – – – 65.98 60.21
Sleeping on steering
Beta – – – – 0.617 0.612 – – – –
Sig. – – – – 0.000 0.000 – – – –
R2
– – – – 0.782 0.879 – – – –
VIF – – – – 3.421 – – – –
AIC – – – – 58.01 54.92 – – – –
Use of mobile use of mobile phone while driving
Beta 0.732 0.763 – – – – – – – –
Sig. 0.000 0.000 – – – – – – – –
R2 0.782 0.791 – – – – – – – –
VIF 2.233 – – – – – – – –
AIC 76.20 56.04 – – – – – – – –
Over loading
Beta 0.102 0.106 0.110 0.121 – – – – – –
Sig. 0.000 0.002 0.000 0.000 – – – – – –
R2
0.881 0.884 0.820 0.834 – – – – – –
VIF 1.045 3.082 – – – – – –
AIC 67.32 54.87 78.09 74.44 – – – – – –
LM SLM SEM SLM SEM SLM SEM SLM SEM SLM SEM
0.002 2.973 2.945 0.032 2.856 0.002 1.983 0.003 0.002 1.879
Source: Data analysis.

result. SEM outperformed on some scales and SLM was
more suitable on others (Table 6 and 7).
Discussion
The geographical patterns and effects of human and mech-
anical factors on RTCs, fatality and injury in Nigeria were
examined in this study. Clear regional disparities in RTCs,
fatality and injury were observed between the north and
south as well as between the urban and rural areas of the
country, with RTCs in general concentrated in the north
and urban areas. The finding of this study is still similar to
earlier studies on the geographical analysis of RTCs in
Nigeria (Atubi, 2012, Gbadamosi, 2015; Iyanda, 2019,
Akinyemi, 2019; Osayomi, 2013), but however, very differ-
ent with respect to the predictors of RTCs. For instance,
Osayomi (2013) attributed RTCs in the north to urbaniza-
tion due to the fact that urban areas in the north are more
associated with higher levels of vehicle ownership and
higher traffic than nearby rural areas. In contrast, the length
of federal roads was identified as one of the factors associ-
ated with RTCs in urban areas (ibid.). This was adduced to
the relatively good quality of federal roads which tempts
drivers to over speed (Gbadamosi, 2015).
In this study, speed violation, the use of mobile while
driving, overloading, sleeping on steering, tyre burst and
route violation were identified as the major correlates of
RTCs, fatality and injury in Nigeria with variation in their
effects across the country. At the national level, the study
finds evidence that RTCs, fatality and injury are associated
with the use of mobile phone while driving. This may pos-
sibly be due to the increasing number of mobile phone
ownership and usage in the country which have a strong
tendency to distract drivers. Over the years, there has been
a steady increase in the number of mobile phone users in
Nigeria from 162 million mobile subscribers in 2017 to 172
million in 2018, representing 6.4 percent growth rate
(Kolawole, 2019). In spite of the huge societal benefits of
mobile phones, it has negative externalities of which RTCs
is one. For instance, the use of mobile phone while driving
in the form of making a call, sending a short message and
the use of Google Map, as the World Health Organisation
recently observed, can seriously distract the driver leading
to longer reaction time to braking as well as impaired ability
to keep to the right lane (World Health Organization,
 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INJURY CONTROL AND SAFETY PROMOTION 9

Table 7. Summary of OLS regression and spatial regression results for injury.
National North South Urban Rural
Variable OLS SEM OLS SEM OLS SEM OLS SLM OLS SLM
Speed violation
Beta 0.824 0.826 0.822 0.823 0.854 0.855 0.746 0.787 0.854 0.858
Sig. 0.000 0.003 0.000 0.000 0.031 0.012 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
R2 0.840 0.844 0.860 0.868 0.702 0.732 0.745 0.747 0.835 0.837
VIF 2.013 – 2.982 – 1.062 – 1.451 – 1.762 –
AIC 56.12 50.31 67.00 62.33 80.81 79.54 83.09 74.98 56.37 50.87
Route violation
Beta – – – – 0.656 0.672 – – – –
Sig. – – – – 0.000 0.001 – – – –
R2
– – – – 0.852 0.888 – – – –
VIF – – – – 3.082 – – – –
AIC – – – – 90.21 80.98 – – – –
Tyre burst
Beta 0.497 0.498 0.511 0.515 – – – – 0.442 0.465
Sig. 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 – – – – 0.000 0.000
R2 0.765 0.766 0.832 0.843 – – – – 0.607 0.620
VIF 1.431 – 1.032 – – – – – 1.231 –
AIC 56.98 50.19 62.54 57.45 – – – – 63.56 60.32
Sleeping on steering
Beta – – – – 0.610 0.613 – – – –
Sig. – – – – 0.000 0.000 – – – –
R2
– – – – 0.821 0.834 – – – –
VIF – – – – 2.083 – – – –
AIC – – – – 58.32 56.82 – – – –
Use of mobile phone while driving
Beta 0.723 0.726 – – – – – – – –
Sig. 0.000 0.000 – – – – – – – –
R2 0.842 0.854 – – – – – – – –
VIF 1.262 – – – – – – – – –
AIC 79.01 60.23 – – – – – – – –
Over loading
Beta 0.119 0.432 0.100 0.133 – – – – – –
Sig. 0.000 0.002 0.004 0.000 – – – – – –
R2
0.932 0.956 0.810 0.818 – – – – – –
VIF 1.000 – 1.221 – – – – – – –
AIC 93.21 84.82 89.54 86.10 – – – – – –
LM SLM SEM SLM SEM SLM SEM SLM SEM SLM SEM
1.763 0.003 0.573 0.043 1.972 0.000 0.007 1.237 0.000 1.232
Source: Data analysis.

2020). In addition, the World Health Organization has
reported that drivers who use a phone while driving are
four times more likely to be involved in a crash than a
driver who does not use a phone at all. The finding of this
study conforms to a study in China where about 47.2 per-
cent of road traffic crashes were caused by the use of mobile
phone while driving (Zhou & Wang, 2016).
The study finds evidence that RTCs and injury were
associated with overloading at the national level and north-
ern Nigeria. Overloading appears to be common on major
roads in Nigeria generally and in northern Nigeria, with
vehicles overloaded with people and goods. Some common
forms of overloading in Nigeria include more than one pas-
senger sitting in the front seat of car meant for one passen-
ger, people sitting in the boot of a car, among others
(Agboluaje, 2019; Ekpa, 2016). The reasons for this could be
attributed to the increasing transport demand and economic
factors. In recent times, there has been a rapid increase in
the country’s population with an increasing demand for
means of mobility. Even though there are over 11 million
vehicles in the country (National Bureau of Statistics, 2018),
it appears they are insufficient to support the increasing
demand for transport, with the population of the country
estimated at over 200 million people (Worldometers, 2020).
From personal observations, overloading particularly in
commercial vehicles occurs in many cases where passengers
need to urgently reach a destination but there is no room
for an additional passenger. Thus, they are asked to
‘manage’ any little space the vehicle might be able to pro-
vide at the inconvenience of other passengers. This ‘manage’
phenomenon sometimes stems from the greed of commer-
cial vehicle operators so as maximise profit at the cost of
passengers’ discomfort. This, perhaps, may account for the
high incidence of vehicle overloading in the country. The
finding of this study concurs with that of Saifizul et al.
(2013) that an overloaded vehicle is more likely to be
involved in a crash when compared with a vehicle that is
legally loaded. This is based on the fact that an overloaded
vehicle is less stable because of the increased height at the
centre of gravity; overloaded vehicles also become pressured
which results in brake failure, tyre burst, among others
(Saifizul et al., 2013).
On the other hand, speed violation appears to be the
prominent cause of crashes across the five scales. Speed vio-
lation as a correlate of crashes in the south, urban Nigeria,
northern Nigeria and at the national level could possibly
occur on paved roads in the country. This assertion is fur-
ther corroborated in the study of Akinyemi (2019) who
10 R. ADELEKE ET AL.

Table 8. Summary of OLS regression and spatial regression results for fatality.
National North South Urban Rural
Variable OLS SEM OLS SEM OLS SEM OLS SEM OLS SEM
Speed violation
Beta 0.822 0.832 0.821 0.823 0.856 0.858 0.762 0.777 0.861 0.865
Sig. 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.004 0.000 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
R2 0.890 0.892 0.851 0.863 0.789 0.791 0.741 0.749 0.831 0.834
VIF 1.413 – 1.452 – 2.341 – 1.231 – 1.671 –
AIC 59.00 56.81 65.31 60.33 80.54 79.21 80.44 79.05 56.00 54.01
Route violation
Beta – – – – 0.586 0.588 – – – –
Sig. – – – – 0.000 0.001 – – – –
R2
– – – – 0.890 0.901 – – – –
VIF – – – – 2.198 – – – – –
AIC – – – – 89.21 85.98 – – – –
Tyre burst
Beta 0.491 0.493 0.498 0.496 – – – – 0.342 0.401
Sig. 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 – – – – 0.000 0.001
R2 0.787 0.789 0.795 0.800 – – – – 0.563 0.601
VIF 1.312 – 1.021 – – – – – 2.610 –
AIC 54.91 51.28 60.51 55.00 – – – – 63.87 58.87
Sleeping on steering
Beta – – – – 0.612 0.614 – – – –
Sig. – – – – 0.000 0.000 – – – –
R2
– – – – 0.881 0.892 – – – –
VIF – – – – 1.870 – – – –
AIC – – – – 58.01 53.71 – – – –
Use of mobile phone while driving
Beta 0.721 0.736 – – – – – – – –
Sig. 0.002 0.000 – – – – – – – –
R2 0.871 0.881 – – – – – – – –
VIF 1.981 – – – – – – – – –
AIC 80.83 67.01 – – – – – – – –
LM SLM SEM SLM SEM SLM SEM SLM SEM SLM SEM
0.445 0.002 0.562 0.003 0.212 0.000 0.290 0.000 0.540 0.000
Source: Data analysis.

attributed injuries and deaths to speeding on smooth road
surfaces. Although the causes of speed violation are numer-
ous, the high demand for transport relative to its supply
which commercial drivers tend to cash in to make more
money may have accounted for a speed violation. This is
more evident during the ‘EMBER’ months which warrants
much more travelling. This was bolstered by Mosadomi
(2012: https://www.vanguardngr.com/2012/11/ember-months-
of-road-traffic-accidents-frsc-cautions-on-reckless-driving/) that:
… .accidents and deaths are higher during the ‘EMBER’
months because of the various festivities lined up during
this period and which warrant much more traveling. It is a
period where commercial drivers cash in to make more
money through over speeding/speed violation...
Over speeding alone does not necessarily lead to crashes,
it requires some other elements for it to occur. The majority
of the roads in the country are characterized by lack of
maintenance, poor design and construction (Akinyemi,
2012). Hence, over speeding on most of the roads in the
country is very risky. It has been established that high speed
reduces the possibility to respond in time when necessary,
and it also increases the likelihood that a driver will lose
control of the vehicle because there is less time to anticipate
oncoming hazards (Pan American Health Organization,
2018). Speed violation also featured as a prominent pre-
dictor of road crashes in rural Nigeria. This could be attrib-
uted to lower traffic density and the absence of road safety
officials in rural areas. This is similar to the finding of
Raatiniemi et al. (2016) who attributed RTCs in rural
Finland to speed violation.
Furthermore, the finding of this study established the
relationship between sleeping on the steering and RTCs,
fatality and injury only in southern Nigeria. The causes of
sleeping on steering while driving are multifactorial. Some
of the reasons include untreated sleep disorders, alcohol
intake, the use of medications, and stress (Centre for
Disease Control & Prevention, 2020). The presence of the
busiest highway, Lagos-Ibadan expressway and its heavy
traffic congestion during peak periods, may possibly result
in driver stress and may further explain why drivers sleep
on the steering. The 121.8 kilometre Lagos-Ibadan express-
way (Osayomi & Areola, 2015), is central to the country’s
space economy because it connects Nigeria’s economic
heartland, Lagos (Osayomi & Adeniyi, 2017) to many parts
of the country. In addition, the highway is lined with prayer
camps of a number of religious institutions especially those
of Redeemed Christian Church of God and Mountain of
Fire Ministries (Nwannekanma & Olatunji, 2019) which fre-
quently generate very high vehicular traffic during periods
of spiritual retreat and fellowship. According to a media
report, the Federal Road Safety Corps estimated that at least
25,000 vehicles ply the road every hour (News Agency of
Nigeria, 2019). Given the circumstances, Lagos-Ibadan
express way over the years has been characterized by heavy
gridlock lasting for several hours with the endless tales of
frustration and anguish for motorists (Punch, 2019) leading
to tiredness for the majority of drivers. In some cases,
 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INJURY CONTROL AND SAFETY PROMOTION
motorists are forced to stop and sleep on the road and hope
to continue their journey the next day if the gridlock eases.
In Lagos State, the heavy traffic congestion is unrivalled
in the country. Motorists spend an average of 30 hours in
traffic each week and 1,560 hours annually (Akorede, 2019).
This traffic congestion, no doubt, takes its toll on the mental
and physical health of motorists, with the majority of them
burned out . Another challenge motorist’s face in southern
Nigeria is the acute shortage of sleep. According to Adebiyi
(2011), commuters in Lagos State experience traffic conges-
tion on a daily basis due to the high numbers of vehicles on
the road. It has also been reported that drivers spend up to
ten hours in traffic which may have an effect on their driv-
ing behaviour. This was further corroborated in the study of
Akorede (2019) that some motorists in Lagos sleep for
4 hours, with some waking up by 4 am and returning home
at 11 pm. The finding of this study is buttressed by Taylor
and Dorn (2006) that driving on congested roads and driv-
ing for long hours can lead to sleeping on steering due to
stress which can result in fatal crashes.
Equally, it was found that tyre burst is a predictor of
RTCs, fatality and injury in northern Nigeria, rural Nigeria
and at the national level. Tyre burst can be caused by
numerous factors, including under-inflation of tyres, over-
loading, expired tyres, substandard tyres and potholes
(Dieseruvwe, 2018). As earlier stated, the majority of the
roads in Nigeria are in a very bad state. Only about
10,000km of the federal roads are in a good state, while
about 13,300km and 11,600km are in fair and bad states,
respectively (Nnodim, 2019). Hence, the roads are usually
full of gullies and potholes which makes tyres to wear out
and burst, and in some unfortunate cases, leading to road
traffic crashes. Another possible reason is vehicle overload-
ing. An overloaded vehicle can lead to tyre burst because
the tyre(s) are being put under more pressure than normal.
Road crashes resulting from tyre burst due to overloading
has also been documented in Malaysia by Saifizul et al.
(2013). This finding is consistent with the study of Iyanda
(2020, forthcoming), who found that tyre burst was associ-
ated with a crash based on the weightage measures in
Nigeria. Tyre burst could also be attributed to the use of
sub-standard tyres which are common in the country, and
this has been linked to the high cost of new tyres (Hamzat,
2016) which cannot be afforded by some motorists. The
common use of substandard tyres is further reiterated by
the Federal Road Safety Corps (2015) that the use of sub-
standard tyres commonly called ‘Tokunbo’ (fairly used tyres)
lack road worthiness which eventually leads to the break-
down of vehicles, causing obstructions on the highways
which may lead to many RTC related deaths.
It was also found that route violation is a risk factor of
crashes in southern Nigeria. Route violation is the contra-
vention of the provision of any traffic law or regulation
relating to the directions and routes to be followed by
vehicles such as facing oncoming vehicles or plying routes
prohibited for certain categories of vehicles (FRSC, 2012).
The offence of driving against traffic is more common when
there is heavy traffic on one lane, which prompts an
11
impatient driver to drive against the traffic (The Nation,
2018). This is typical of many urban areas in southern
Nigeria, especially Lagos State. In 2019, the state had one of
the highest number of cases (41 ) of route violation leading
to road traffic crashes.
Following the key findings of this study, some of the lim-
itations of the study must be highlighted. First, although the
finding of this study established speed violation, the use of
mobile phone while driving, overloading, tyre burst, route
violation and sleeping on steering as correlates of RTCs,
fatality and injury across the five scales of analysis, there are
other determinants such as urbanization, population size,
and presence of road safety personnelwhich also have poten-
tial impacts on RTCs. However, the examination of these
equally important factors were beyond the scope of this
study. The results of this study hence, must be interpreted
with caution. Second, some other human and mechanical
predictors of RTCs such as level of education, age and visual
impairment ( Adejugbagbe et al., 2015; Bekibele et al., 2007)
could not be investigated due to the absence of state level
data. The key strength of this research is its understanding
of the geography of RTCs, fatality and injury in relation to
the category of HM factors which is largely overlooked in
the wider literature.
Conclusion
This study investigated the effects of human and mechanical
factors on the spatial pattern of RTCs, fatality and injury
along regional lines in Nigeria, with over speeding, the use
of mobile phone while driving, route violation, sleeping on
steering, overloading and tyre burst as the significant predic-
tors. Regional differences have clearly emerged in the effects
of HM factors on RTCs, fatality and injury. However, the
prominence of speed violation as a predictor of RTCs, fatal-
ity and injury across Nigeria shows that regional inequalities
may not necessarily lead to differences in the predictors of
RTCs at all the five scales of analysis. Based on the findings
of this study, the following are recommended: First, the
FRSC and other road safety agencies need to enforce exist-
ing laws and regulations on speed violation, the use of
mobile phones while driving, overloading, route violation
and use of substandard and expired tyres. In addition, these
agencies could specifically check speed violation inthe form
of installation of speed limit devices and engage in periodic
education of motorists on the danger of speed violation,
vehicle care and maintenance It is also important for drivers
to be educated on the need to have adequate rest in order
to check sleeping on steering.
Acknowledgement
The authors are grateful to the editor and anonymous reviewers for
their very helpful suggestions towards the improvement of the paper.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).
12 R. ADELEKE ET AL.
ORCID
Richard Adeleke http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0094-993X
Tolulope Osayomi http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6361-1437
Ayodeji E Iyanda http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5791-2663
Data availability statement
The data that support the findings of this study are openly available in
the below public domain [URL and DOI]:
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