For Fx I trade GU/EU & for Indices I trade ES so im
watching these pairs along with DXY & NQ/YM as well for SMT Divergences and also EURGBP to find the stronger/weaker pair between GU/EU.
Separate the SMT Divergence between fx and indices.
For Fx: Look for the divergence to occur between
pairs ( $GBPUSD/ $EURUSD) or between the pairs with $DXY.
For Indices: Look for the divergence to occur between
pairs ( $ES/ $NQ/ $YM) or between the pairs with $DXY.
There is a Bullish SMT Divergence and a Bearish
SMT Divergence. They can happen on all timeframes and there are high probability SMT divergences and low probability SMT divergences and I will discuss the difference. A Bullish SMT Divergence occurs when liquidity has been raided, then between the pair one makes a lower low while the other makes a higher low which leads to an expansion move higher. The divergence in price action can signal a bullish reversal.
Here are examples of a Bullish SMT Divergence
between pairs: GU makes higher low / EU makes lower low ES makes lower low / NQ makes higher low Example of a EU Bullish SMT Divergence with DXY:
Dollar is supposed to move inversely with gu/eu &
indices. In this example EU makes a lower lower which means DXY should make a higher higher. Because DXY made a lower high this is also a SMT Divergence. A Bearish SMT Divergence Occurs when liquidity has been raided, then between the pair one makes a higher high while the other makes a lower high which leads to an expansion move lower. The divergence in price action can signal a bearish reversal. Here are examples of a Bearish SMT Divergence between pairs: GU makes higher high / EU makes lower high ES makes lower high / NQ makes higher high Example of GU Bearish SMT Divergence with DXY:
Dollar is supposed to move inversely with gu/eu and
indices. In this example GU makes a higher high which means DXY should make a lower low. Because DXY made a higher low this is also an SMT Divergence These divergence in price action between pairs or pairs between dollar can potentially be the start of a Smart Money Reversal based on other contexts which I will discuss. High probability SMT Divergences occur during killzones/macos after there has been a significant raid on liquidity with clear draw on liquidity. If you see an SMT Divergence happen make sure there's LRLR conditions.
Low probability SMT Divergences occur outside of
killzones and when there hasn't been any raids on liquidity. HRLR conditions will also cause SMT Divergences to fail.
LRLR vs HRLR
Here is an example of Bullish high probability SMT
Divergences including context.
Context: PO3 as narrative with Asia range as
accumulation. Asia low gets raided during LOKZ which is manipulation. SMT Divergence starts the reversal after raid. Then mss starts expansion to DOL. Look at how time comes into play. At the start of LOKZ liquidity gets raided then at the open, an SMT Divergence occurs when GU makes a higher low than EU. After, theres a MSS & it gives BRK/FVG entries for longs to start the expansion move. This is a textbook A+ setup. If MSS happens near the end of LOKZ then look for the expansion move to happen during NYKZ. The SMR (smart money reversal) where SMT Divergence occurs. Then you're looking for mss/bos for accumulation/distribution where fvg/brk/obs etc. occur.
Here is how SMT Divergences factor into my favorite
Buy/Sell Model For bullish SMT Divergences typically the pair that makes the higher low tend to be the stronger one as the higher lower shows relative strength so that's the pair you want to long. You can also compare displacement in price to find the stronger pair.
For bearish SMT Divergences typically the pair that
makes the lower high tend to be the weaker one as the lower high shows relative weakness so that's the pair you want to short. You can also compare displacement in price to find the weaker pair.
If the stronger/weaker pair doesn't give you entry to
long/short then I will look at the other pair for entry. Always look at DXY for confluence when trading.
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