Science of the Total Environment 907 (2024) 167982

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Science of the Total Environment

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/scitotenv

High-precision spatio-temporal variations and future perspectives of

multiple air pollutant emissions from Chinese biomass-fired
industrial boilers
Tao Yue a, Yali Tong b, *, Jiajia Gao a, Yue Yuan c, Lingqing Wang d, **, Haicheng Wei e
a
School of Energy and Environmental Engineering, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing 100083, China
b
Centre of Air Pollution Control and Carbon Neutrality, Institute of Urban Safety and Environmental Science, Beijing Academy of Science and Technology, Beijing
100054, China
c
Research Center of Environmental Pollution Control Engineering Technology, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China
d
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
e
Qinghai Provincial Key Laboratory of Geology and Environment of Salt Lakes, Qinghai Institute of Salt Lakes, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xining 810008, China

H I G H L I G H T S G R A P H I C A L A B S T R A C T

• A boiler-based emission inventory of

Chinese BFIBs is firstly developed.
• Monthly emissions of air pollutants
varied by geographical division.
• Air pollutant emissions mainly concen­
trated in the eastern coastal region.
• Air pollutant emissions under four sce­
narios are predicted by 2025, 2030, and
2050.

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Editor: Jianmin Chen Biomass-fired industrial boilers (BFIBs) are one of the neglected and important anthropogenic sources of air
pollutants. A comprehensive boiler-based emission inventory of multiple air pollutants from BFIBs in China in
Keywords: 2020 was first developed based on the activity level database and updated emission factors. Results showed that
Biomass-fired industrial boiler (BFIB) national emissions of air pollutants from BFIBs in 2020 were estimated to be 11.5 kt of PM, 10.8 kt of PM10, 7.4
Air pollutants
kt of PM2.5, 40.5 kt of SO2, 79.8 kt of NOx, 4.2 kt of organic carbon (OC), 1.0 kt of elemental carbon (EC), 31.7 kt
Trace metals
of nonmethane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), 15.9 kt of NH3, and 116.5 t of five trace metals (Hg, Cr,
Emission inventory
Spatio-temporal variation Cd, Pb, and As), respectively. Air pollutant emissions exhibited significant spatio-temporal heterogeneity.
Scenario projection Monthly air pollutant emissions varied by geographical division due to the combined effects of industrial pro­
duction and winter heating demand. These emissions were mainly concentrated in the eastern coastal region,
with Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang being the five provinces having the highest emissions.
In addition, scenario predictions indicate that as the pollution and carbon reduction strategy is implemented, air

* Correspondence to: Y. Tong, No. 55 Taoranting Road, Xicheng District, Beijing 100054, China.
** Correspondence to: L. Wang, No. 11A Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100101, China.
E-mail addresses: tongyali123@163.com (Y. Tong), wanglq@igsnrr.ac.cn (L. Wang).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167982
Received 16 June 2023; Received in revised form 28 September 2023; Accepted 19 October 2023
Available online 20 October 2023
0048-9697/© 2023 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
T. Yue et al.
pollutant emissions from BFIBs in China could become well controlled, with PM, NOx, SO2, and Hg emissions in
2050 projected to be 3.0–8.3 kt, 36.5–75.7 kt, 16.2–32.8 kt, and 0.52–0.87 t, respectively. Our results can
provide a highly spatio-temporal resolution inventory of multiple air pollutant emissions from BFIBs for air
quality modelling and support the formulation of air pollution control policies for biomass fuel utilization in the
context of the pollution and carbon reduction strategy.
1. Introduction
The utilization of biomass fuels is developing rapidly in many
countries due to the global energy crisis, air pollution, and climate
warming caused by the combustion Biomass fuels, categorized by their
physical form as gaseous, solid, and liquid biomass fuels (Patel et al.,
2016), are considered a carbon-neutral renewable energy source and are
widely used (Huang et al., 2023; Lin et al., 2021; Obernberger et al.,
2006) of fossil fuels (EIA (Energy Information Administration), 2023;
Ghorashi and Khandelwal, 2023; IEA (International Energy Agency),
2022). China has abundant agricultural and forestry resources, and
various types of solid biomass fuels based on agricultural and forestry
residues have been extensively applied in industrial production (Huang
et al., 2023), electricity production (Hu et al., 2020), and domestic usage
(Du et al., 2020). Due to the net-zero carbon emissions and relatively
low air pollutant emissions compared to coal, solid biomass fuels play an
important role in improving air quality, reducing carbon, and the energy
transition in China.
Biomass-fired industrial boilers (BFIBs) burn solid biomass fuels
made from agricultural and forestry residues and are a type of thermal
power equipment applied to industrial production processes and heating
in China (Huang et al., 2023). The Action Plan for Air Pollution Prevention
and Control (SCC (State Council of China), 2013), proposed to implement
coal reduction and substitution, and BFIBs have developed rapidly as an
important means of replacing coal-fired industrial boilers (CFIBs)
(Coal− to− Biomass) due to higher environmental benefits (Wang et al.,
2021). However, the combustion of solid biomass fuels can release a
variety of air pollutants, which have significant impacts on the envi­
ronment and human health and are of wide global concern (Rahman
et al., 2022). Laboratory simulations and field measurements of solid
biomass combustion have reported high levels of air pollutant emissions
(Du et al., 2020; Huang et al., 2023, 2011; Lin et al., 2021; Shen et al.,
2018). The air pollution caused by combusting solid biomass fuels re­
quires priority attention. However, due to the pressure to improve air
quality in China, environmental management policies for BFIB are
increasingly stringent (Wang et al., 2021). Air pollution control devices
(APCDs) for BFIBs are gradually being upgraded to meet increasingly
tightened air pollutant emission standards. High-efficiency dedusting
(de-PM) facilities, such as fabric filter (FF) and electrostatic FF (EFF),
and denitrification (de-NOx) facilities such as low NOx burner (LNB),
selective non-catalytic reduction (SNCR), and selective catalytic reduc­
tion (SCR) are applied to reduce PM and NOx emissions. However,
studies on the emission characteristics of air pollutants from BFIBs are
still limited to supporting policy development regarding air pollution
control of BFIBs.
The hazardous air pollutant emissions from biomass combustions,
particularly PM, NOx, nonmethane volatile organic compounds
(NMVOCs), and trace metals (e.g. Hg, Cr, Cd, Pb, and As) have received
widespread attention (Du et al., 2020; Hu et al., 2020; Huang et al.,
2023, 2011; Janhäll et al., 2010; Lin et al., 2021). Previous researchers
have established inventories of multiple air pollutant emissions from
open biomass burning and residential biomass combustion at different
regional scales, using emission factors obtained from the literature (Du
et al., 2020; Lin et al., 2021; Permadi and Kim Oanh, 2013; Shi et al.,
2019; Streets et al., 2003b; Zhang et al., 2013; Zhou et al., 2017). Due to
the continued work on forest fire control and straw burning control in
China, air pollutant emissions from BFIBs are more often compared to
open biomass burning sources (Shen et al., 2018). In addition, the
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Science of the Total Environment 907 (2024) 167982
pollution of Chinese soils with trace metals is serious, and it has been
revealed that the accumulation of trace metals in agricultural and
forestry crops leads to generally high levels of trace metals in biomass
fuels (Feng et al., 2020). The environmental problem of trace metals
from BFIBs has not received sufficient attention compared to conven­
tional air pollutants (PM, SO2, and NOx). BFIBs predominantly used
biomass briquette fuels, and their air pollutant emissions are more
complex due to their small boiler capacities and various types of APCDs
(Ghorashi and Khandelwal, 2023; Huang et al., 2023). Yet, a high-
precision air pollutant emission inventory for China's BFIBs is still
lacking due to the absence of refined activity levels and detailed emis­
sion factors. With the implementation of the Action Plan for the Elimi­
nation of Heavy Pollution Weather (MEE (Ministry of Ecology and
Environment of China), 2022), the Chinese government is expected to
enforce ultra-low emissions for BFIBs. Thus, because a comprehensive
emission inventory of air pollutant emissions is lacking, their air
pollutant emissions have not been adequately characterized.
In this study, a boiler-based comprehensive emission inventory of
multiple air pollutants, including gaseous air pollutants (SO2, NOx,
NMVOCs, and NH3), particulate matter (PM, PM10, PM2.5), carbona­
ceous components (organic carbon [OC], elemental carbon [EC]), and
trace metals (Hg, Cr, Cd, Pb, and As), was initially established based on
the activity level database of ~48,000 Chinese BFIBs in 2020 and
updated emission factors by using a bottom-up methodology. The spatial
distribution characteristics of the above-mentioned air pollutant emis­
sions from BFIBs in China were investigated in detail. Monthly alloca­
tion factors for air pollutant emissions were developed based on the
annual variation of product yields and heating demand in boiler appli­
cation industries. In addition, the scenario analysis approach was
applied to project the emissions of air pollutants from BFIBs in China in
2025, 2030, and 2050, and integrate energy consumption and end-of
pipe emission control measures. The findings of this study are critical
for policymakers to develop effective air pollution emission control
measures for BFIBs to achieve low pollution levels operating under the
carbon reduction target.
2. Materials and methodology
2.1. Boiler-based calculation of multiple air pollutant emissions
Due to the lack of high-precision data on activity levels, previous
studies of emission inventories of air pollutants from biomass combus­
tion sources have mainly treated BFIBs as a surface source (Lu et al.,
2011; Shi et al., 2019). Therefore, this study established a boiler-level
activity level database of BFIBs based on the environmental statistics
from the Chinese Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE), including
fuel consumption, combustion type, boiler capacity, applied APCDs, and
geographical location of ~49,900 BFIBs and >149,000 tons/hour (t/h)
total capacity of China (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan due
to insufficient data) for 2020 (see Fig. S1). A boiler-based bottom-up
methodology that integrates the established activity level database and
an updated emission factor database, was adopted to estimate the
emissions of multiple air pollutants from Chinese BFIBs in 2020. Four
categories of air pollutants were considered, given the levels of air
pollutant emissions from solid biomass fuel combustion and environ­
mental management needs, including gaseous air pollutants (SO2, NOx,
VOCs, and NH3), particulate matter (PM, PM10, PM2.5), carbonaceous
components (OC, EC), and trace metals (Hg, Cr, Cd, Pb, and As).
T. Yue et al.
The effects of fuel type, combustion type, and APCDs were consid­
ered when calculating the air pollutant emissions in this study, and a
three-level classification of the BFIBs' emission sources was established
according to the proposed source classification method (He et al., 2017)
(see Table S1). Specifically, the biomass fuels for BFIBs were classified
into two categories, including wood-based fuel and straw-based fuel,
depending on the types of raw materials. Given the differences in
combustion temperatures (Vassilev et al., 2013), combustion types were
divided into three groups, including grate-fired (GF) furnaces, circu­
lating fluidized bed (CFB) furnaces, and others, for estimating trace
metal emissions. GF and CFB furnaces were the main types of Chinese
BFIB with the GF furnace widely used in BFIBs with a capacity of <35 t/
h, and CFB furnaces being used in large-size BFIBs with a capacity of 65
t/h and above. Also, de-PM, de-NOx, and desulphurization (de-SO2)
facilities are installed to ensure that the PM, SO2, and NOx emissions
meet their emission limits (see Table S2). The APCDs' air pollutant-
removal efficiency varies between technologies (Shi et al., 2019), and
this was also considered in calculating air pollutant emissions. There­
fore, the basic formula for boiler-based bottom-up calculation of mul­
tiple air pollutant emissions from BFIBs in China in 2020 could be
expressed as follows:
∑ ∑( ) dong Province. This spatial heterogeneity in the fuel consumption of
Etotal,i = Ei,p = Mj × EFi,k,l,m (1)
p j
where subscript i, j, k, l, m, and p represent air pollutant species, boiler,
fuel type, combustion type, APCDs, and province (municipality, and
autonomous region), respectively; E is the annual emissions of air pol­
lutants, kg; M is the annual fuel consumption, t; EF is the emission factor
of air pollutants, kg/t.
The Geographic Information System (ArcGIS 10.2) tool was applied
to elucidate the detailed spatial distribution characteristics of air
pollutant emissions and to provide gridded emission data for air quality
model simulation. It assigned the air pollutant emission inventory ob­
tained in this study to 36 km × 36 km grid cells based on the
geographical latitude and longitude coordinates of the emission sources.
Also, the provincial-level emission intensity indicators were adopted to
reveal the spatial heterogeneity of air pollutant emissions per unit of
economic level, population size, and administrative area, as follows:
EIi,p =
Ei,p
(2)
Sp
where EI is emission intensity per unit economics, people, and area, g/
10,000 Yuan, g/cap, and kg/km2, respectively; S is the industrial value-
added, permanent population, and administrative area.
Also, in this study, monthly allocation factors for air pollutant
emissions were obtained based on the monthly industrial production to
which they were applied and heating demand. Production for industries
in 2020 is not representative of normal conditions due to the corona­
virus pandemic. Therefore, 2017's product yield data per industry from
the China Statistics Bureau website (http://www.stats.gov.cn/) was
applied in this study. The monthly heating demand was calculated by
comparing the daily maximum and minimum temperatures with the
base temperature according to Spinoni et al. (2018). The monthly allo­
cation factors were calculated as
∑( QIr Pr,t
)
QH HDDt
MFt = ×∑ + ×∑ (3)
r
Q − QH t Pr,t Q t HDDt
where MF is the monthly allocation factor; Q is the total boiler capacity
of BFIBs; QI is the total boiler capacity of BFIBs applied to an industrial
production process; QH is the total boiler capacity of BFIBs applied to
the heat production and supply industry; P is the product yield of the
industry; HDD is the number of heating days, the formula for calculating
HDD is shown in Table S3; r is the category of industrial production
processes; and t is the month (from January to December).
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Science of the Total Environment 907 (2024) 167982
2.2. Provincial fuel consumption and composition
Based on the boiler-level activity database of BFIBs developed in this
study, by the end of 2020, the total fuel consumption of BFIBs in China
was approximately 66.1 Mt. As presented in Fig. S2 and Table S4, fuel
consumption for BFIBs varied by province. BFIBs are mainly located in
the provinces in the eastern and southern coastal regions of China.
Guangdong, Guangxi, and Jiangxi were the top three provinces with fuel
consumption totaling 24.0 Mt., representing a 36.4 % share. As pre­
sented in Fig. 1, BFIBs predominantly have small-size boilers (with <10
t/h capacity) nationwide, which consumed approximately 55.8 % of the
total fuels. Median and large-size BFIBs (with a capacity of 35 t/h and
above) were mainly concentrated in the provinces in the northern and
coastal regions, such as Guangxi, Guangdong, Fujian, Jilin, Hebei, etc.,
which were largely attributed to winter heating needs and industrial
production demands. Although the scales of BFIBs in the northern re­
gions were less than those in the economically developed coastal re­
gions, the number of small-size boilers had a higher provincial share.
Taking, e.g., Tianjin, the number and fuel consumption of its small-size
boilers respectively accounted for 79.8 % and 86.1 % of that of all BFIBs
in the city, respectively 23.6 % and 34.8 % higher than that of Guang­
BFIBs defines the input of air pollutants and is an important factor
influencing the spatial distribution of their air pollutant emissions.
Air pollutant emissions from solid biomass fuels vary depending on
the fuel properties (Burling et al., 2010; Lin et al., 2021). Our previous
investigations revealed that the complexity of the types of solid biomass
fuels burned in BFIBs, such as straw, sawdust, bagasse, and rice bran, as
well as biomass briquettes fabricated from various agricultural and
forestry residues, made it difficult to compile fuel type-based statistics
on fuel for BFIBs in China. Therefore, adopting the widely used classi­
fication of solid biomass fuels (Fournel et al., 2015; Huang et al., 2023;
Liao et al., 2004), we divided solid biomass fuels for BFIBs into two
categories: straw-based fuels and wood-based fuels, based on the raw
materials. The solid biomass fuels used in Chinese BFIBs are generally
sourced from agricultural and forestry residues within 50 km of the
surrounding area or biomass briquettes purchased within the province.
Therefore, we assumed that the composition of the solid biomass fuel
types for BFIBs was consistent with the regional composition of the
agricultural and forestry residues generated. Hence, we obtained the
consumption of different types of solid biomass fuels for BFIBs in each
province, based on national and provincial statistics on straw and
forestry residues as well as fuel utilization rates (FGA (National Forestry
and Grassland Administration), 2021; MARA (Ministry of Agriculture
and Rural Affairs of China), 2022; MEE (Ministry of Ecology and Envi­
ronment of China), 2020). As presented in Fig. S2 and Table S4, the solid
biomass fuels of BFIBs in China are dominated by the straw-based fuels,
with a share of approximately 72.0 %. However, there was a distinct
inter-provincial regional heterogeneity in the types of solid biomass
fuels. Due to the large scale of forest products manufacturing, the share
of wood-based fuels of BFIBs in Guizhou, Hainan, Fujian, Zhejiang, and
Guangxi province all exceeded 60 %.
2.3. Combustion types and air pollution control technology applications
Since the boiler type determines the combustion temperature and
state of the fuel this can affect which air pollutants are generated (Huang
et al., 2023). Based on the established BFIB boiler-level activity level
database, GF furnaces were the dominant combustion types, with 92.5 %
of boiler capacity (see Table S5). In GF furnaces, fuel is generally placed
on a fixed or moving grate, allowing air to enter the chamber from the
below. GF furnaces generally require less accessory equipment, are
simple to install and operate, and are suitable for small-size boilers
(Pöykiö et al., 2009). CFB furnaces are characterized by wide fuel
adaptability and low pollutant emissions and have developed rapidly in
recent years under the Coal-to-Biomass measures (Lin et al., 2021; SCC
T. Yue et al. Science of the Total Environment 907 (2024) 167982

Fig. 1. Provincial distribution of the number and capacity of BFIBs in China.

(State Council of China), 2018). Among the large-size boilers with a
capacity of 65 t/h and above, the CFB furnaces represent a capacity
share of 88.1 %.
In 2020, all BFIBs were installed with all types of de-PM facilities to
reduce PM emission (see Fig. S3). FF, wet dust collection (WET), and
cyclone (CYC) were the three predominant de-PM facilities, with
installation rates of 34.7 %, 34.0 %, and 25.0 % respectively. Although
the sulfur content of biomass fuels is very low compared to coal (Adam
et al., 2021), de-SO2 facilities can be installed to meet the ultra-low
emission limits. The installed de-SO2 facilities were mainly flue gas

Fig. 2. Capacity proportion of top twelve routs towards APCDs of BFIBs by provinces in China.

4
T. Yue et al.
wet desulfurization (WFGD) technologies, with a total installation rate
of 89.9 %. The proportion of BFIBs equipped with de-NOx facilities was
<10 % of the total boiler capacity. Thereamong, LNB-SNCR was the
most common de-NOx technology accounting for 44.3 % of the capacity
of boilers with de-NOx facilities nationwide, while the SNCR or SCR
shares were 27.6 % and 9.0 % respectively. Notably, the de-PM, de-SO2,
and de-NOx facilities for BFIBs varied by boiler capacity and region. As
presented in Fig. S3, the installation rate of de-SO2, de-NOx, and high-
efficiency de-PM facilities in small-size BFIBs was significantly lower
than that in medium and large-size BFIBs. Due to more stringent envi­
ronmental management of air pollutant emissions, compared to other
regions, de-SO2, de-NOx, and high-efficiency de-PM facilities were more
widely applied in priority regions identified by the Chinese government
for air pollution prevention and control, such as Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei
and its surrounding areas (BTH), the Fen-Wei Plain (FWP), and the
Yangtze River Delta (YRD). In addition, Fig. 2 summarizes twelve routes
towards APCDs for BFIBs in China in 2020, with a total boiler capacity
share of approximately 95 %. The top five routes were WET, FF, CYC,
CYC-FF, and LNB – SNCR + FF, with their boiler capacity accounting for
88.2 % of the national boiler capacity. There are variations in routes in
different provinces in China, which can impact the air pollutant emis­
sions from BFIBs.
2.4. Emission factors of multiple air pollutants
To date, there are relatively few studies on the emission factors
relating to BFIB air pollutants. Therefore, we established the updated
emission factors of multiple air pollutants emitted by Chinese BFIBs
based on our field measured data for 37 boilers (see Table S6 and Fig. S4)
and with reference to the literature. Given the complexity of Chinese
BFIBs, we considered fuel types, APCDs, and combustion types to
determine the suitable emission factors for BFIBs. The emission factors
of PM, SO2, and NOx based on the measured field data for 37 BFIBs were
obtained as shown in Table S9. PM, SO2, and NOx are the pollutants
specified in the national air pollutant emission standard for BFIBs, and
many have studied their emissions. Therefore, for the types of APCDs not
covered by the field measurements in this study, the emission factors for
PM, SO2, and NOx were determined based on the nationally recom­
mended production factors (see Table S8) and removal efficiencies (see
Table S9), as shown in Eq. (4). The emission factors of NMVOCs and NH3
by fuel types were derived from the literature as summarized in
Table S8. The mass balance approach, which has been widely used in
coal-fired boilers (Gao et al., 2021; Lin et al., 2021), was used to
calculate the emission factors of PM10, PM2.5, and trace metals of BFIBs,
as presented in Eqs. (5) and (6). Thereby, the values of other parameters
for calculating the emission factors of PM10 and PM2.5 were determined
based on previous studies as summarized in Table S10. OC and EC are
the important components of PM2.5 and their emission factors were
identified from measured data in the published literature (see Table S8).
Additionally, calculating the emission factor of trace metals (Hg, Cr, Cd,
Pb, and As) was based on the formation mechanism (Chen et al., 2019)
and considered the parameters including the trace metals content in
fuel, the release ratio, and collaborative removal efficiency of APCDs.
The levels of trace metals in solid biomass fuels were given by fuel types
based on our measured data (see Table S11), and the release ratio and
collaborative removal efficiencies of APCDs were from the literature
(see Table S11). The emission factors for multiple air pollutants of BFIBs
are calculated using these formulas:
( )
EFPM/SO2 /NOx = GFi,k,l × 1 − ηi,m (4)
( )
EFPMy = Aj × (1 − arl ) × fl,y × 1 − ηm,y (5)
∏( )
EFTE = ci,k × Ri,l × 1 − ηi,m,n (6)
n
5
Science of the Total Environment 907 (2024) 167982
where GF is the production factor, g/t; η is the removal efficiency, %; A is
the ash content of fuel, %; ar is the ratio of ash into the bottom ash, %; f is
the proportion of total particulate matter in a given particle size range; c
is the trace metal content in fuel, g/t; R is the release ratio, %; subscript n
represents the conventional air pollutants (PM, SO2, and NOx).
2.5. Scenario projections for multiple air pollutant emissions by 2025,
2030, and 2050
Based on the predictions of fuel consumption and end-of-pipe
emission control policies, this study developed scenarios of multiple
air pollutant emissions from BFIBs for 2025, 2030, and 2050. The sce­
nario projections assume that the implementation of air pollution and
carbon reduction policies in China will force the development of BFIBs
towards large scale and low emissions. The World Energy Outlook pre­
dicted that by 2030 and 2050, China would be expected to grow by 91.5
%–136.4 % and 233.3 %–422.5 % in terms of renewable energy supply
compared to 2020 (IEA (International Energy Agency), 2022). Biomass
fuels are an important net-zero carbon emission fuel and Coal-to-
Biomass is one of the important measures to promote the reduction of
coal-fired boilers in China in recent years (Tong et al., 2022). Our pre­
vious study revealed that the implementation of Coal-to-Biomass for
CFIBs with a capacity of below 10 t/h brought about a 25 % reduction in
PM2.5 from 2015 to 2017 (Wang et al., 2021). Therefore, based on the
projections of renewable energy supply in China from the World Energy
Outlook (IEA (International Energy Agency), 2022), we set up the
reference (REF) and sustainable development (SUS) scenarios in com­
bination with the BFIBs' share of fuel consumption in China (see
Table S15). The REF scenario assumed that energy consumption policies
will remain unchanged in the future, and the SUS scenario assumed that
new energy-saving policies would be promulgated to promote the
application of BFIBs. Therefore, fuel consumption for Chinese BFIBs was
forecast to reach 74.9–83.1 Mt., 99.0–108.3 Mt., and 114.6–167.2 Mt.
by 2025, 2030, and 2050 respectively. Additionally, with the deep
reduction of air pollutants in China, the Chinese government proposed
ultra-low emission retrofitting for BFIBs in 2018 (SCC (State Council of
China), 2018). However, in 2020 there were still a large number of BFIBs
with backward de-PM technology (see Fig. S3), such as WET and CYC;
and the installation of de-NOx facilities was at a low rate (see Fig. S3),
with the NOx emission concentration failing to meet the ultra-low
emission requirements reliably. The Action Plan for the Elimination of
Heavy Pollution Weather issued by the State Council of China proposes
that BFIBs should be equipped with highly efficient de-PM and de-NOx
facilities by 2025 (MEE (Ministry of Ecology and Environment of China),
2022). Therefore, two end-of-pipe emission control scenarios (business-
as-usual− BAU and available-control-technology− ACT) were developed
by considering the evolution of APCDs of BFIBs (see Table S15). The two
end-of-pipe emission control scenarios were designed with reference to
the approach of controlling air pollution from CFIBs in China by region
(key regions and other regions) and by boiler capacity (<35 t/h, ≥35 t/
h). It should be noted that the emergence of new APCDs was not
considered in the end-of-pipe emission control scenarios. The BAU sce­
nario assumed that BFIBs would continue to be retrofitted in the future
and that the current air pollution control policies would achieve their
emissions goals. Furthermore, stringent emission control measures
would be implemented in the ACT scenario further to mitigate PM, SO2,
and NOx emission levels. Specifically, in the ACT scenario, the region for
implementing ultra-low emissions of BFIBs would be gradually
expanded to the entire country. In total, four scenarios (REF-BAU, REF-
ACT, SUS-BAU, and SUS-ACT) were designed to project the air pollutant
emissions from BFIBs in 2025, 2030, and 2050.
T. Yue et al.
3. Results and discussion
3.1. Overall multiple air pollutant emissions in 2020
Emissions of multiple air pollutants from BFIBs in China in 2020
were estimated, as shown in Fig. 3 and Table S11. National emissions
were estimated at 11.5 kt of PM, 10.8 kt of PM10, 7.4 kt of PM2.5, 40.5 kt
of SO2, 79.8 kt of NOx, 4.2 kt of OC, 1.0 kt of EC, 31.7 kt of NMVOCs, and
15.9 kt of NH3 in 2020, respectively. The total emission of the five trace
metals was 116.5 t in 2020, among which at 67.3 %, Pb accounted for
the highest proportion. Based on the monthly allocation factors of air
pollutant emissions (see Table S12), we obtained 2020's monthly
emissions of multiple air pollutants from BFIBs. Taking PM2.5 as an
example, the monthly emissions of PM2.5 from BFIBs in 2020 in different
geographical divisions are shown in Fig. S5. The emissions of air pol­
lutants from BFIBs are characterized by significant monthly variations in
emissions by geographical divisions, influenced by the combination of
industrial production and heating demand (see Fig. S6). From January to
March and October to December there was an increase in PM2.5 emis­
sions in North and Northeast China compared to other months due to the
increased demand for winter heating. The PM2.5 emissions peaked in
either December or March in South, East, and Central China under the
influence of industrial production with significant seasonal variations in
product yield, such as the industry of sugar, metal products and paper
and paper products. The PM2.5 emissions from BFIBs in Northwest China
were relatively stable throughout the year, mainly due to the small-scale
application of BFIBs due to the relatively low production of agricultural
and forestry residues.
Particulate matter, as the main atmospheric pollutant emitted from
biomass combustion, has attracted widespread attention due to its
complex chemical composition and potential negative effects on the
environment (Adam et al., 2021; Pimonsree and Vongruang, 2018). The
high content of alkali metal/alkaline earth metal compounds in solid
biomass fuels, which are volatile during combustion, tends to form fine
Fig. 3. Emissions of multiple air pollutants from BFIBs in China.
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or submicron particles through gasification and condensation in the gas
phase during diffusion and transportation (Zhang et al., 2023). There­
fore, PM2.5 emissions formed the main particle size composition of PM
emissions from BFIBs, accounting for 64.3 % of total PM emissions in
2020. Various de-PM devices have been installed with BFIBs to reduce
the emission of PM in 2020 (see Fig. S3). As can be seen, PM2.5 emissions
from small-size boilers with a capacity of <10 t/h accounted for a higher
proportion of PM emissions than those of boilers with a capacity of 35 t/
h and above. This was mainly attributed to the lower application rate of
FF and EFF having higher PM2.5 removal efficiency (see Fig. S3), leading
to lower comprehensive removal efficiency of PM2.5. Additionally, in
comparison with the air pollutant emissions from CFIBs established by
Tong et al. (2021), it was found that PM2.5 emissions from BFIBs
contributed to a higher percentage of PM emissions than CFIBs (28.1 %).
This was consistent with the results of Geng et al. (2013), which found
that the average emission factor of PM2.5 from BFIBs was 36.84 % higher
than that of CFIBs at the same thermal power. Carbonaceous particulate
has been identified as an important components of the particulate
matter emitted from solid biomass combustion (Shen et al., 2013; Zhang
et al., 2013). In 2020, OC and EC emissions from BFIBs in China
respectively contributed 36.3 % and 8.7 % of total PM emissions.
Although the PM emissions from BFIBs are less than those from CFIBs,
the PM emissions from BFIBs need more attention due to emitting a
higher PM2.5 content and harmful components, especially now when
China's dual carbon strategy is promoting the development of BFIBs.
The scale of SO2 and NOx emissions from BFIBs in China cannot be
ignored. In 2020, SO2 and NOx emissions from BFIBs in China respec­
tively were approximately 6.2 and 10.7 times higher than PM2.5 emis­
sions. Solid biomass fuels contain low levels of fuel nitrogen, but
approximately 70 %–100 % (mass fraction) of the nitrogen is eventually
converted to NOx, and straw combustion emits higher levels of NOx than
wood fuels (Mao et al., 2019). Some studies based on field measure­
ments have shown that the absolute emission concentrations of SO2 and
NOx were low (Andreae and Merlet, 2001; Burling et al., 2010).
T. Yue et al.
However, most BFIBs do not have de-NOx and de-SO2 facilities (see
Fig. S3). The low installed ratio of de-NOx and de-SO2 devices in BFIBs
due to China's loose environmental policy on solid biomass combustion
has resulted in significantly higher SO2 and NOx than PM emissions. Our
field measurements for BFIBs also demonstrate that the NOx and SO2
emission concentrations are not fully meeting the special emission limits
for air pollutants (see Fig. S4). Although the installation rate by boiler
capacity of de-NOx and de-SO2 facilities in the priority regions was
higher than in the other regions, a considerable number of boilers were
still without them (see Fig. S3). There remains huge potential for NOx
and SO2 emission reduction from BFIBs.
National and local air pollutant emission standards for BFIBs have
specified emission limit requirements for PM, SO2, and NOx (see
Table S2). However, due to solid biomass consumption the non-
conventional air pollutants from BFIBs in China, the non-negligible
emissions include trace metals (Hg, Cr, Cd, Pb, and As), NMVOCs, and
NH3. The main raw materials of solid biomass fuels are various agri­
cultural and forestry residues, and the harmful trace metals that enrich
agricultural and forestry crops through the food chain are transferred to
these fuels that then produce harmful emissions (Shi et al., 2019). The
accumulation of trace metals in agricultural and forestry crops could
demonstrably lead to generally high levels of trace metals in solid
biomass fuels (Feng et al., 2020). During combustion solid biomass fuels
emit the trace metals they contain into the atmosphere, which is a sig­
nificant anthropogenic source that cannot be ignored. The Global Mer­
cury Assessment Report stated that 3 % of global mercury emissions in
2015 came from biomass combustion, including residential, industrial,
and power generation (UN Environment, 2019). Trace metal pollution
remains a prominent problem in China, threatening ecological and
environmental safety and human health (Cheng et al., 2015). Hg, Cr, Cd,
Pb, and As are the priority trace metal pollutants identified for pre­
vention and control in the Opinions on Further Strengthening the Prevention
and Control of Heavy Metal Pollution issued by the MEE. Thus, consid­
ering the significant adverse effects of trace metals on the environment
and human health, as well as the rapid development of solid biomass
fuels under the current global climate change strategy, the trace metal
emissions from BFIBs require attention. In addition, as with fossil fuels,
solid biomass fuels can produce NMVOCs and NH3 during combustion
(Chen et al., 2022; Evtyugina et al., 2014; Geng et al., 2019; Yan et al.,
2016). Olefins accounted for the largest share of VOCs emissions from
BFIBs, amounting to between 41 % and 59 %, followed by alkanes and
aromatic hydrocarbons respectively, 27 % to 49 % and 6 % to 18 % (Wu
et al., 2017). Wei et al. (2008) estimated the contribution of biomass fuel
combustion to anthropogenic NMVOCs emissions in China to be 18 % in
2005, with emissions of about 3618 kt. Chen et al. (2022) revealed that
the biomass fuels' contribution to NH3 was 19.9 % to 23.6 % in two cities
in the YRD region. However, Wei et al. (2008) and Chen et al. (2022)
only considered biomass field burning and residential combustion but
ignored such emissions from industrial production. In this study,
NMVOCs and NH3 emissions from BFIBs in China in 2020 were
approximately 2.7 and 1.4 times higher than PM emissions, respectively.
NMVOCs emissions were comparable to SO2 emissions, and NH3 emis­
sions were approximately 2.1 times higher than PM2.5 emissions. In
China, there are a large number of BFIBs with high fuel consumption,
and they are found in urban areas or industrial regions where pollution
is more concentrated. Therefore, the NMVOCs and NH3 emissions from
BFIBs cannot be ignored. Thus, the trace metals (Hg, Cr, Cd, Pb, and As),
NMVOCs, and NH3 emissions from BFIBs are of great concern due to
their large emissions and harmful effects on the environment and human
health.
Referring to the environmental management policy for coal-fired
boilers (Gao et al., 2021), boiler capacities ranging from <10 t/h, [10,
35] t/h, and ≥35 t/h were considered in this study. The emissions of
multiple air pollutants associated with different ranges of boiler capacity
are summarized in Table S11. In 2020, China still had approximately
27,000 BFIBs with a capacity of below 2 t/h operating with the boiler
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numbers, capacity, and fuel consumption accounting for 54.9 %, 18.2 %,
and 14.3 %, respectively. Notably, small-size boilers were the primary
contributors of multiple air pollutants, ranging from 55.8 %–58.1 % of
total emissions. The contribution of PM, PM10, PM2.5, and NOx emis­
sions from boilers with a capacity of below 10 t/h ranged from 56.9 % to
58.1 %, higher than their fuel consumption share (55.8 %). This could be
attributed to (1) the low installation rate of inefficient de-PM technol­
ogies such as CYC and WET for small-size boilers and (2) the high per­
centage of small-size boilers with no de-NOx devices installed (see
Fig. S3). The inefficient de-PM devices such as CYC and WET have
simple structures, requiring lower construction investments and oper­
ating costs, and have been the dominant type of de-PM devices for BFIBs.
Therefore, BFIBs with a capacity of below 10 t/h have great potential for
reducing their pollutant emissions, considering their huge presence and
backward APCDs. Additionally, the fuel consumption sharing of large-
size boilers with a capacity of 65 t/h and above was about 6.3 %, but
their contribution to multiple air pollutants emissions was relatively low
with the emission accounting for 4.7 %–8.3 %. With the special emission
limits of PM, SO2, and NOx tightened to 30 mg/m3, 200 mg/m3, and
200 mg/m3 in GB 13271–2014, and the implementation of ultra-low
emission retrofitting for BFIBs, FF, ESP, and EFF with a relatively high
PM removal efficiency, and de-NOx devices (SCR, SNCR) are gradually
promoted in the large-size BFIBs with a capacity of 65 t/h and above. To
be specific, in 2020, the number and capacity of boilers with FF, ESP,
and EFF installed in boilers with a capacity of 65 t/h and above
accounted for 42.2 % and 55.5 %, respectively, which was 11.8 % and
17.0 % higher than for small-size boilers.
3.2. Spatial distribution characteristics of multiple air pollutant emissions
3.2.1. Emissions of multiple air pollutants in different provinces and regions
The provincial emissions of multiple air pollutants from Chinese
BFIBs in 2020 are shown in Fig. 3. Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian, Jiangsu,
and Zhejiang were the five provinces with the highest BFIB emissions of
multiple air pollutants in 2020, and their total emissions ranged from
47.0 % to 50.2 %. Guangdong and Guangxi, with the largest fuel con­
sumption (10.6 Mt. and 7.3 Mt), were the top two concerning emissions
(14.6 %–18.7 %). Centralized heating provided by BFIBs is mainly in the
northern winter heating areas and grain and cotton-producing prov­
inces, dominated by Northeast and North China and surrounding areas,
such as Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia, Hebei, and Henan
provinces. Qinghai and Xizang, with the lowest emissions of air pollut­
ants from BFIBs, have the lowest application capacity of BFIBs due to the
relatively small scale of agricultural and forestry crops. Although
Shanghai has a high level of industrial economic development with a
high demand for boilers during industrial production, the application of
BFIBs is small due to strict air pollution control policies. A tight air
pollutant emission standard for BFIBs has been implemented in
Shanghai, with emission limits of 20 mg/m3 for PM, 20 mg/m3 for SO2,
and 150 mg/m3 for NOx, respectively (see Table S2). Additionally, the
Shanghai government has adopted economic measures to promote the
replacement of BFIBs with a capacity of below 35 t/h with gas-fired
boilers (SMPG (Shanghai Municipal People's Government, 2018).
Emissions of multiple air pollutants from BFIBs in 2020 were gridded at
36 km × 36 km, as presented in Fig. 4. In China, air pollutants emitted
from BFIBs were concentrated in the eastern coastal region. This result
was primarily attributed to the abundance of agricultural and forestry
residues and the relatively high level of industrial development in the
eastern coastal region, leading to a large fuel consumption for BFIBs. In
2020, the amount of collectable straw and wood residues in eight
provinces in the eastern coastal region (Liaoning, Shanghai, Jiangsu,
Zhejiang, Fujian, Shandong, Guangdong, and Hainan) accounted for
21.8 % and 29.2 % of the national total, respectively. In addition, the
relatively high level of industrial development in the eastern coastal
region, with 49.9 % of the national industrial value-added in 2020, led
to a high demand for heat in the industrial production process.
T. Yue et al. Science of the Total Environment 907 (2024) 167982

Fig. 4. Gridded emissions of PM, PM10, PM2.5, SO2, NOx, OC, EC, NMVOCs, NH3, five total trace metals, boiler capacity, and the fuel consumption of BFIBs in China.

Significantly, differences in the application of APCDs among regions are
also an important factor affecting air pollutant emissions from BFIBs by
province. Shanxi Province had a high ratio of WFGD installation with
better SO2 control, while Heilongjiang Province was relatively backward
in de-SO2 and had obvious SO2 emissions. Shandong and Shanghai
Province in East China have better NOx controlled due to the high
proportion of de-NOx facilities. Provinces in southwest China, such as
Chongqing and Guizhou, were relatively backward in controlling air
pollution from BFIBs, with low installation rates of de-SO2, de-NOx, and
high-efficiency de-PM facilities. Air pollutant emissions from BFIBs in

8
T. Yue et al.
China displayed significant heterogeneity across provinces due to dif­
ferences in boiler capacity, APCD application, and fuel characteristics.
Considering the variability of geographic conditions and economic
levels in China, the spatial characteristics of air pollutant emissions from
BFIBs are therefore discussed in terms of geographic divisions. China is
generally divided into seven geographical divisions: North China,
Northeast China, East China, Central China, South China, Southwest
China, and Northwest China. As presented in Fig. 4, the emissions of
multiple air pollutants from BFIBs were predominantly concentrated in
East and South China, with air pollutant emissions accounting for 37.6
%–38.9 % and 26.7 %–30.6 %, respectively. Eastern China is the region
with the highest level of industrial development in China, with the total
industrial value-added of the provinces in the region accounting for
41.4 % of the national industrial value-added in 2020 (NBSC (National
Bureau of Statistics of China), 2021). The reason for the higher contri­
bution of air pollutant emissions from BFIBs in South China could be
explained by: (1) the large-size production of agricultural products with
vast quantities of agricultural residues has promoted the development of
BFIBs; (2) the relatively loose environmental management policy, low
installation rate of de-SO2, de-NOx, and highly efficient de-PM facilities
have resulted in inadequate PM, SO2, and NOx control. A noteworthy
finding was that provinces with large agricultural production and a high
winter heating demand, such as North China, have relatively low
emissions of air pollutants from BFIBs. This may be explained by the
predominance of open burning of agricultural residues in the area (Yang
et al., 2020), and that coal-fired boilers have been mostly replaced by
gas-fired boilers instead of BFIBs in recent years with the implementa­
tion of “Coal to Clean Energy” policy (Wang et al., 2021).
3.2.2. Comparison of multiple air pollutant emission intensity by province
The spatial distributions of emissions for multiple air pollutants from
BFIBs in China in 2020 were similar. The emission intensity per unit
area, industrial value-added, and permanent population at the provin­
cial level were investigated for PM2.5 and NMVOCs as examples, as
shown in Fig. 5. The average emission intensity per unit area, capita, and
Fig. 5. Provincial emission intensity of PM2.5 and NMVOCs from BFIBs in China.
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industrial value-added of PM2.5 was 0.77 kg/km2, 5.26 g/cap, and 2.37
g/10,000 Yuan, respectively, and that of NMVOCs was 3.30 g/km2,
22.49 g/cap, and 10.13 g/10,000 Yuan, respectively. The emission in­
tensity of PM2.5 from BFIBs was lower than that of NMVOCs as the
boilers were generally equipped with various de-PM devices. Addition­
ally, the provinces with high emission intensity of air pollutants (>5 kg/
km2, >10 g/cap or >10 g/10,000 Yuan for PM2.5, >20 kg/km2, >50 g/
cap or >50 g/10,000 Yuan for NMVOCs) were mostly in East China,
South China, and Northeast China, due to the high fuel consumption in
East China and South China as well as the small population size and low
industrial value-added in Northeast China and parts of South China. The
emission intensities of PM2.5 and NMVOCs for the provinces in North­
west China and Southwest China, and that of PM2.5 for the provinces in
North China, were lower than the national average values. The expla­
nations are that: (1) the lower fuel consumption of biomass boilers in
northwest and southwest China leads to low air-pollutant emissions; (2)
although the fuel consumption of biomass boilers in northern China,
such as Hebei Province, is relatively high, the APCDs are effective in
controlling PM due to more stringent environmental management pol­
icies. In addition, emissions of PM2.5 showed a more significant corre­
lation with the emission intensity per unit area (R2 = 0.6865) and per
unit population (R2 = 0.7715), which was consistent with the global
findings in a previous study (Ren et al., 2021). However, a weak cor­
relation was found with the emission intensity per unit of industrial
value-added (R2 = 0.2568) (see Fig. S7), which could be attributed to
small-size BFIBs being eliminated in the key air-pollution control regions
in recent years. Although PM2.5 emissions from BFIBs were high in some
provinces, the emission intensity per unit of industrial value-added was
low in certain provinces such as Guangdong and Jiangsu. The main
reason for this finding is the widespread application of highly efficient
de-PM devices. In Jiangsu Province in 2020, 63.0 % of BFIBs had highly
efficient de-PM devices such as FF, EFF, and ESP, 42.3 % higher than
that in Guangxi.
T. Yue et al.
3.3. Uncertainty analysis and comparisons to other studies
3.3.1. Uncertainty analysis
Estimations of the emission inventory are inevitably subject to un­
certainties such as errors in monitoring data, random errors in calcula­
tions, and data representativeness (Lin et al., 2021; Streets et al., 2003a;
Tian et al., 2015). Monte Carlo simulations were performed to estimate
uncertainty for multiple air pollutant emissions of BFIBs by using Crystal
Ball software (Gonzalez et al., 2005). The probability distribution
characteristics of input parameters, including emission factors, activity
levels, and removal efficiency of APCDs, are provided in Table S13 based
on estimates from this study or related literature (Cheng et al., 2015; Lin
et al., 2021; Nriagu, 1979; Shi et al., 2019; Streets et al., 2003a; Tian
et al., 2015; Tong et al., 2021; Zhang et al., 2013; Zhu et al., 2020).
Because the fuel consumption statistics of BFIBs in China in 2020 were
obtained from the MEE, a normal distribution with a 5 % coefficient of
variation was assumed. The running time was set as 10,000 iterations to
obtain the distribution curve. The (P5-P50)/(P50) and (P95-P50)/(P50)
values were the uncertainty range with a confidence interval of 95 %.
Therefore, the overall uncertainties of multiple air pollutant emissions of
BFIBs in China in 2020 were estimated to range from − 58.21 % to 58.40
% for PM, − 53.95 % to 49.96 % for PM10, − 52.42 % to 41.64 % for
PM2.5, − 34.61 % to 55.49 % for SO2, − 41.66 % to 56.93 % for NOx,
− 59.02 % to 55.12 % for OC, − 59.48 % to 58.05 % for EC, − 36.17 % to
39.17 % for NMVOCs, − 45.05 % to 52.14 % for NH3, − 32.09 % to 40.61
% for Hg, − 26.62 % to 30.76 % for Cr, − 29.31 % to 37.22 % for Cd,
− 23.41 % to 27.57 % for Pb, and − 25.40 % to 29.52 % for As.
The parameters for calculating the emissions of multiple air pollut­
ants from BFIBs in China in 2020 showed different sensitivities to
emission uncertainties (see Fig. S8). Removal efficiency and the pro­
duction factor were the major contributors to uncertainties in emissions
of PM, carbonaceous particulate matters, and gaseous pollutants. Un­
certainty in the calculation of trace metal emissions arises mainly from
the content levels of trace metals in fuels and the control efficiency
factor. Uncertainties in trace metal emissions mainly derived from the
content of trace metals in fuel and the synergistic control efficiency of
the de-PM, de-SO2, and de-NOx facilities. Also, due to the limited studies
on air pollutant emission inventories for Chinese BFIBs, we compared
the air pollutant emission inventory uncertainties with those of other
biomass combustion sources to make a preliminary assessment of the
benefits and drawbacks of the emission inventories established in this
study. The uncertainties concerning the PM2.5, PM10, SO2, and trace
metal emissions from BFIBs established in this study were improved
compared to the air pollutant emission inventory of biomass direct-fired
power plants in China (Lin et al., 2021), except for PM and NOx. This
result was probably attributable to the following reasons: (1) the emis­
sion factors for PM and NOx used in this study were partly obtained
based on measured data, which somewhat increased the uncertainty; (2)
the more detailed classification of APCDs reduced the uncertainty in the
emissions of PM2.5, PM10, SO2, and trace metals. In addition, the un­
certainties in this study were significantly reduced compared to open
and domestic biomass burning due to using refined activity level data
(Lu et al., 2011; Zhou et al., 2017). Consequently, more detailed and
extensive field measurements must be obtained to establish a localized
emission factor database for developing reliable air pollutant emission
inventories. China's strategy to reduce pollution and carbon emissions
expects more extensive technological upgrading of air pollution control
for BFIBs to be implemented. Therefore, continuous updating of air
pollutant emission factors much be maintained for modelling and
environmental management policy making.
3.3.2. Comparisons to other studies
Emissions of multiple air pollutants from BFIBs estimated in this
study accounted for 0.15 %–5.89 % of China's industrial emissions in
2020 (national data available at http://meicmodel.org.cn) (Li et al.,
2018; Zheng et al., 2018). In addition, according to the emission
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Science of the Total Environment 907 (2024) 167982
inventory of trace metals from anthropogenic sources in China estab­
lished by Tian et al. (2015), emissions of Hg, As, Pb, Cr, and Cd from
BFIBs contributed to 0.14–0.54 % of the national emissions in 2012.
Notably, based on the contribution of emissions, BFIBs were not the
leading source category of industry air pollutant emissions in China. To
date, numerous studies have been conducted on the characteristics of air
pollutant emissions from biomass burning, including open burning and
domestic burning (Evtyugina et al., 2014; Permadi and Kim Oanh, 2013;
Yang et al., 2020). However, detailed, and comprehensive studies on the
air pollutant emissions from BFIBs in China are still limited, due to the
lack of detailed APCDs data and refined activity rates, especially for non-
conventional air pollutant emissions, such as NH3, NMVOCs, and trace
metals, which remain unclear. A study of biomass direct-fired power
plants estimated that the national total emissions of air pollutants from
biomass direct-fired power plants were estimated to be 4.1 kt of PM, 2.4
kt of PM10, 1.6 kt of PM2.5, 14.2 kt of SO2, 29.5 kt of NOx, 0.13 t of Hg,
8.3 t of Cr, 1.6 t of Cd, 66.3 t of Pb, and 3.1 t of As in 2017 (Lin et al.,
2021). The emissions of air pollutants from BFIBs estimated in this study
are higher than those from biomass direct-fired power plants, with
emissions ranging from 2.7 to 8.4 times higher. BFIBs emit more air
pollutants than direct-fired biomass power plants, which is mainly
attributed to the higher fuel consumption and poorer APCDs of BFIBs.
Fuel consumption in 2020 for BFIBs was approximately 1.2 times the
fuel consumption in 2017 for biomass direct-fired power plants. In
addition, air pollution controls for biomass direct-fired power plants
have been implemented earlier and with greater intensity. Promoted by
the emission standard, at biomass direct-fired power plants, APCDs have
gradually been installed and upgraded since 2014. The capacity of
biomass direct-fired power plants equipped with de-NOx and de-SO2
devices accounted respectively for 64 % and 36 % of the total installed
capacity in 2017 (Lin et al., 2021), while the share of BFIBs capacity
with de-NOx and de-SO2 installations in 2020 was <10 % for both (see
Fig. S3). In addition, compared with the PM emissions from biomass
direct-fired power plants in China (Lin et al., 2021), a higher percentage
of PM2.5 emissions from BFIBs was obtained in this study. This was
mainly due to the higher installation rate of FFs and EFFs with higher PM
and PM2.5 control efficiencies to fulfil the more stringent PM emission
limits (MEE (Ministry of Ecology and Environment of China, 2012; MEE
(Ministry of Ecology and Environment of China), 2014a). WET and CYC,
which had higher application rates in BFIBs, were less effective than FFs
and EFFs in controlling PM and PM2.5. Respectively, the control effi­
ciencies for PM2.5 of CYC and WET were approximately 10 % and 50 %,
while that of FF and EFF was higher than 90 % for PM2.5 (MEE (Ministry
of Ecology and Environment of China), 2014b).
This confirms that the air pollutant emissions from BFIBs cannot be
ignored. The estimated NMVOCs and NH3 emissions from biomass
burning in China in 2007, including open burning and domestic burning,
were 6049.6 kt and 774.9 kt respectively (Lu et al., 2011), and those
estimated in our study accounted for 1.2 % and 2.0 % of their estima­
tions, however, the SO2 and NOx emissions obtained in our study were
13.8 % and 8.4 % of their estimated SO2 and NOx emissions, respec­
tively. This can be attributed to (1) lower emission factors for NMVOCs
and NH3 of BFIBs compared to open biomass burning and domestic
biomass burning due to the more efficient combustion of fuel in BFIBs
and (2) higher production factors for SO2 and NOx of BFIBs compared to
open biomass burning and domestic biomass burning with their lower
installation rates of de-SO2 and de-NOx facilities.
3.4. Scenario analysis and policy implications
3.4.1. Scenario analysis of multiple air pollutants by 2025, 2030, and
2050
The projected emissions of multiple air pollutants from Chinese
BFIBs in 2025, 2030, and 2050 are illustrated in Fig. 6 and Table S15.
Under four scenarios, emissions of particulate matter (PM, PM10, PM2.5),
SO2, NOx, carbonaceous components (OC, EC), and trace metals (Hg, Cr,
T. Yue et al.
Fig. 6. PM, PM2.5, SO2, NOx, Hg, and NMVOCs emissions from BFIBs in China projected for 2025, 2030, and 2050 under four scenarios.
Cd, Pb, and As) from BFIBs in China would be well controlled by 2025,
2030, and 2050. The lowest PM, PM2.5, NOx, SO2 and Hg emissions were
observed under the REF-ACT scenario in 2025, 2030 and 2050 due to
relatively low fuel consumption and stringent air pollution control
measures. By 2025, emissions of PM, NOx, SO2, and Hg under the REF-
ACT scenario would decrease by 18.6 %, 17.9 %, 13.7 %, and 22.7 %,
respectively, compared to those in 2020, with fuel consumption
increased by 13.4 %. However, due to the rapidly increasing fuel con­
sumption of BFIBs, emissions of PM, SO2, and NOx would increase by
7.2 %, 6.1 %, and 5.8 % respectively in 2025 under the SUS-BAU sce­
nario compared to that in 2020. By contrast, a small reduction in Hg
emissions in 2025 compared to 2020 was found in the SUS-BAU sce­
nario. Specifically, Hg emissions are expected to decrease by 5.7 % in
2025 compared to 2020, due to the significant increase in efficiency of
synergistic control of Hg resulting from the increased application rates
of SCR/SCR-SNCR, EFF/ESP/FF, and WFGD. Under the four scenarios,
with the widespread regulation of ultra-low emissions for BFIBs in
China, PM, NOx, SO2, and Hg emissions were expected to decline by
11
Science of the Total Environment 907 (2024) 167982
2030 and 2050. Under the four scenarios, PM, NOx, SO2, and Hg
emissions were estimated to be 8.0–11.0 kt, 58.8–81.2 kt, 27.8–36.3 kt,
and 0.72–0.87 t, respectively by 2030, while by 2050, these would be
3.0–8.3 kt, 36.5–75.7 kt, 16.2–32.8 kt, and 0.52–0.87 t respectively for
PM, NOx, SO2, and Hg emissions. Notably, emissions of air pollutants in
2025, 2030, and 2050 under the ACT scenarios were basically lower
than those under the BAU scenarios, indicating a greater potential for air
pollutant emission reduction from BFIBs under the ACT scenario. This
result could be attributed to the higher emission control efficiency of air
pollutants under the ACT scenario due to more intensive upgrading of
APCDs (see Table S16). Emissions of NH3 and NMVOCs in 2025, 2030,
and 2050 were projected to change consistent with the variations in fuel
consumption of BFIBs. By 2025, 2030, and 2050, NMVOC emissions
would increase to 35.9–39.9 kt, 47.5–52.0 kt, and 55.0–80.2 kt,
respectively, and NH3 emissions would increase to 18.0–19.9 kt,
23.8–26.0 kt and 27.5–40.1 kt, respectively. In addition, the REF-ACT
and SUS-ACT scenarios have higher Hg reductions than Cr, Cd, Pb and
As due to the enhanced application of SCR in the ACT scenario.
T. Yue et al.
3.4.2. Policy implications for air pollutants control
To achieve carbon neutrality, a global consensus has been reached
that renewable energy is the priority approach to replacing fossil energy
(IEA (International Energy Agency), 2021; Wang et al., 2023). With
biomass as the only chemical form of renewable energy to be used as a
fuel (Saidur et al., 2011). The development and utilization of solid
biomass fuels can help alleviate energy shortages and contribute to the
improvement of environmental quality and global warming. The ban­
ning of the open burning of straw in many areas of China and the
elimination or retrofitting of small and medium-sized CFIBs in recent
years have led to BFIBs being strongly promoted. National and local
governments encourage the use of BFIBs by providing subsidies, with the
total utilization rate of crop straw in China remaining above 86 % in the
14th FYP (NDRC (National Development and Reform Commission of
China), 2021). Therefore, BFIBs are bound to replace CFIBs in the future
as an important energy type for heating and industrial production in
China. However, due to the lack of a highly accurate inventory of air
pollutant emissions from BFIBs, the development and implementation of
air pollutant emission control policies for BFIBs remain highly contro­
versial. Thus, to control air pollutant emissions from BFIBs, we propose
the following policy considerations based on the findings of this study.
Emission control of particulates, SO2, and NOx is the priority for
managing BFIBs' pollutants. China's BFIBs emit high levels of PM, SO2,
and NOx, with emissions of 11.5 kt, 40.5 kt, and 79.8 kt in 2020,
respectively, due to their high fuel consumption and the low installation
rate of APCDs (see Figs. 1 and S3). Although all BFIBs are equipped with
de-PM facilities, the installation rate of inefficient de-PM facilities,
mainly CYC and WET, is high (64.5 %). Less than 20 % of the capacity of
BFIBs have de-NOx and de-SO2 facilities installed. There is thus huge
potential to reduce air pollutant emissions from BFIBs by implementing
de-PM technology upgrading and promoting the application of de-NOx
and de-SO2 technologies (see Fig. 6). Newly built BFIBs can be strictly
required to install APCDs that meet environmental management re­
quirements. LNB-SNCR/SCR-SNCR, FF/EFF, and WFGD respectively, are
good options for achieving NOx, PM, and SO2 reductions in BFIBs.
Emissions of air pollutants from BFIBs in China are dominated by
small-size boilers with a capacity of <10 t/h and they contributed >50
% of air pollutant emissions in 2020 (see Table S10). Small-size BFIBs in
China, with their large number and backward APCDs, should be the
focus of air pollution control for BFIBs. The environmental management
of small-size BFIBs is difficult, mainly due to their operational de­
ficiencies, including low thermal efficiency and the unstable operation
of their APCDs (Ghorashi and Khandelwal, 2023; Saidur et al., 2011).
Regarding China's air pollution control measures for CFIBs, large-size
boilers can be used to replace small-size BFIBs where industrial pro­
duction conditions and regional natural environmental conditions
allow. In addition, our scenario projections for multiple air pollutant
emissions from BFIBs by 2025, 2030, and 2050 found that new energy-
saving policies would promote that application of BFIBs. Therefore, for
newly built BFIBs, restrictions on boiler capacity would be imposed on
newly built BFIBs, and large-size boilers with a capacity of 65 t/h and
above should be encouraged.
Air pollutant emissions from BFIBs in China exhibit significant
spatial heterogeneity due to the unbalanced regional BFIBs develop­
ment. Hence, differentiated air pollution control policies for BFIBs
should be formulated and implemented according to regional charac­
teristics. The inventory of air pollutant emissions from BFIBs in 2020
developed in this study indicates that the emissions of air pollutants is
mainly concentrated in the eastern coastal regions of China (see Figs. 3
and 4). For the provinces with current concentrations of BFIBs, such as
Guangxi, Guangdong, and Jiangsu, the layouts of newly built BFIBs
should be optimized and air pollution control in existing BFIBs must be
enforced. For regions with developed agriculture and forestry with
considerable agricultural and forestry residues, such as Henan and
Heilongjiang Province, the development of BFIBs should be promoted by
establishing modern solid biomass fuel production systems. In addition,
12
Science of the Total Environment 907 (2024) 167982
there is a significant gap between the current emission levels of PM, SO2,
and NOx from BFIBs and the ultra-low emission limits. Currently, the
emission limits for air pollutants from BFIBs in China are implemented
with reference to CFIBs. With the implementation of China's carbon-
peaking and carbon-neutral strategies, there is a huge demand for a
specific national standard for air pollutant emissions from BFIBs. Na­
tional emission standards for air pollutants from BFIBs can guide prov­
inces to develop local emission standards that are in line with local
realities, to enforce the reduction of air pollutants.
4. Conclusions
Using a bottom-up methodology and drawing on the established
activity level database and updated emission factors, this study devel­
oped a boiler-based emission inventory of multiple air pollutants from
BFIBs in China in 2020. The emissions of multiple air pollutants in 2020
were estimated as follows: 11.5 kt for PM, 10.8 kt for PM10, 7.4 kt for
PM2.5, 40.5 kt for SO2, 79.8 kt for NOx, 4.2 kt for OC, 1.0 kt for EC, 31.7
kt for NMVOCs, 15.9 kt for NH3, and 116.5 t for five trace metals. Small-
size BFIBs made a major contribution to multiple air pollutant emissions.
Air pollutant emissions exhibited a significant spatio-temporal hetero­
geneity affected by geographical conditions, population size, industrial
development levels, and other factors. The monthly emissions of air
pollutants varied by geographical divisions due to the combined effects
of industrial production and winter heating demand. The emissions of
air pollutants were mainly concentrated in the eastern coastal region,
with Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang being the top
five provinces having the highest emissions. Scenario predictions
revealed that emissions of air pollutants would be well controlled by
2025, 2030, and 2050, and PM, NOx, SO2, and Hg emissions were pre­
dicted to be 3.0–8.3 kt, 36.5–75.7 kt, 16.2–32.8 kt, and 0.52–0.87 t
respectively. The findings of this study indicate that small-size BFIBs in
China, with their large number and backward APCDs, should be the
priority concern for air pollution control of BFIBs. Differentiated air
pollution control policies for BFIBs should be developed and imple­
mented according to regional characteristics.
CRediT authorship contribution statement
Tao Yue: Conceptualization, Methodology, Formal analysis, Writing
– review & editing, Funding acquisition. Yali Tong: Methodology, Data
curation, Writing – original draft, Software, Resources. Jiajia Gao:
Conceptualization, Visualization, Writing – review & editing, Funding
acquisition. Yue Yuan: Methodology, Formal analysis. Lingqing Wang:
Supervision, Resources, Writing – review & editing. Haicheng Wei:
Methodology, Data curation.
Declaration of competing interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence
the work reported in this paper.
Data availability
Data will be made available on request.
Acknowledgments
This work is supported by the Beijing Natural Science Foundation
(8224089), the National Key Research and Development Program of
China (2019YFE0194500; 2016YFC0208103).
Appendix A. Supplementary data
Supplementary data to this article can be found online at https://doi.
T. Yue et al.
org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167982.
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