Atmospheric Environment 99 (2014) 353e364

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Atmospheric Environment
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/atmosenv

Trends in multi-pollutant emissions from a technology-linked

inventory for India: I. Industry and transport sectors
Pankaj Sadavarte a, b, Chandra Venkataraman a, b, *
a
Climate Studies Program, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Powai, Mumbai 400 076, India
b
Department of Chemical Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Powai, Mumbai 400 076, India

h i g h l i g h t s

Technology-linked emissions of ten pollutants relevant to climate and air quality.

Dynamic emission factors reflect technology-mix and regulations during 1996e2015.

Aerosol/precursor emissions were from thermal power and industry and diesel vehicles.

Ozone precursor emissions were from thermal power, gasoline vehicles and mining.

GHG emissions were from thermal power and industry.

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Emissions estimation, for research and regulatory applications including reporting to international
Received 5 June 2014 conventions, needs treatment of detailed technology divisions and high-emitting technologies. Here we
Received in revised form estimate Indian emissions, for 1996e2015, of aerosol constituents (PM2.5, BC and OC) and precursor gas
25 September 2014
SO2, ozone precursors (CO, NOx, NMVOC and CH4) and greenhouse gases (CO2 and N2O), using a common
Accepted 30 September 2014
Available online 2 October 2014
fuel consumption database and consistent assumptions. Six source categories and 45 technologies/ac-
tivities in the industry and transport sectors were used for estimating emissions for 2010. Mean emission
factors, developed at the source-category level, were used with corresponding fuel consumption data,
Keywords:
Short-lived pollutants
available for 1996e2011, projected to 2015. New activities were included to account for fugitive emis-
Aerosol sions of NMVOC from chemical and petrochemical industries. Dynamic emission factors, reflecting
Ozone precursors changes in technology-mix and emission regulations, were developed for thermal power plants and on-
Greenhouse gases road transport vehicles. Modeled emission factors were used for gaseous pollutants for on-road vehicles.
Uncertainty Emissions of 2.4 (0.6e7.5) Tg y1 PM2.5, 0.23 (0.1e0.7) Tg y1 BC, 0.15 (0.04e0.5) Tg y1 OC, 7.3 (6e10)
Tg y1 SO2, 19 (7.5e33) Tg y1 CO, 1.5 (0.1e9) Tg y1 CH4, 4.3 (2e9) Tg y1 NMVOC, 5.6 (1.7e15.9) Tg y1
NOx, 1750 (1397e2231) Tg y1 CO2 and 0.13 (0.05e0.3) Tg y1 N2O were estimated for 2015. Significant
emissions of aerosols and their precursors were from coal use in thermal power and industry (PM2.5 and
SO2), and on-road diesel vehicles (BC), especially superemitters. Emissions of ozone precursors were
largely from thermal power plants (NOx), on-road gasoline vehicles (CO and NMVOC) and fugitive
emissions from mining (CH4). Highly uncertain default emission factors were the principal contributors
to uncertainties in emission estimates, indicating the need for region specific measurements.
© 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction emissions. They are used as inputs to atmospheric models used to

Emission inventories are important research and regulatory
tools that link energy use and technology adoption to changes in
* Corresponding author. Climate Studies Interdisciplinary Program, Department
of Chemical Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Powai, Mumbai
400 076, India.
E-mail address: chandra@iitb.ac.in (C. Venkataraman).
study the atmospheric effects of changing emissions on different
scales, from urban to regional (Guttikunda and Calori, 2013;
Carmichael et al., 2009), or from inter-hemispherical to global
(Clarke and Kapustin, 2010; Reddy and Boucher, 2007; Schulz et al.,
2006). Accurately estimating the magnitude of emissions at the
sectoral level (e.g., industry, transport, residential or agriculture)
requires dividing energy or fuel consumption into appropriate
technology divisions and treating high-emitting technologies
separately (Bond et al., 2004, 2013).

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2014.09.081
1352-2310/© 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
354 P. Sadavarte, C. Venkataraman / Atmospheric Environment 99 (2014) 353e364
Existing Indian inventories for different pollutants or climate-
forcing agents rely on a variety of fuel consumption databases
that use different base years and varying levels of technology detail
and characterization, making direct comparison difficult. Green-
house gas (GHG) emission inventories have been developed in the
context of the national communications to the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (Garg et al.,
2001, 2002; MoEF, 2010), while other research has addressed
additional trace gases (Garg et al., 2006; Guttikunda and Calori,
2013; Ghude et al., 2013). It has been reported that only about
12% of net GHG emissions from India (MoEF, 2010) have been
estimated from fuel consumption using a method based on sub-
national disaggregation, which is compliant with the highest tier
(Tier III) specified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC, 1997); the remaining 88% have been estimated using
coarse, national-level calculations. Estimates of GHGs and trace
gases agree within a factor of 1.2e2.7 with values for India pub-
lished in global or regional inventories (Olivier and Berdowski,
1996; Lu et al., 2011, 2012).
Varying treatments of technology and the level of activity detail
have led to disagreement among the emissions estimates in
different studies. Currently, Indian black carbon (BC) emission es-
timates differ among themselves and from global inventories by a
factor of 3 (Venkataraman et al., 2005, 2006; Parashar et al., 2005;
Sahu et al., 2008; Bond et al., 2004). A recent assessment of the
global climate effects of BC indicates a model-measurement
disagreement of 4 times in the BC atmospheric absorption in
South Asia (Bond et al., 2013), implying missing sources or under-
estimated emission factors. Some of these were updated by Lu et al.
(2011).
In this context, the present work takes a step toward a more
complete understanding of sectoral emissions in India through the
application of coherent technology divisions and regionally
measured emission factors. This work provides a methodological
basis for consolidating the many ongoing efforts at estimating ur-
ban (Mohan et al., 2007; Gurjar et al., 2004) and national emission
levels (Ramachandra and Shwetmala, 2009; Chakraborty et al.,
2008). We propose a framework for estimating the emissions of
various pollutants relevant to climate and air quality and health.
This includes aerosols, PM2.5 (particle matter with a diameter less
than 2.5 mm), BC, organic carbon (OC) and its precursor, SO2, ozone
precursors (NOx, CO, non-methane volatile organic compounds
(NMVOC), and CH4) and GHGs (CO2 and N2O). Energy use and fuel
consumption data from Indian sectoral reports are used for the
period 1996 to 2011 and extended to 2015. More detailed tech-
nology divisions are used for 2010, while dynamic emission factors
related to technology penetration and regulation changes are used
for the period of analysis.
The complete work is presented in two papers to allow use of
different uncertainty estimation methodologies for sectors in
which the data are well constrained (such as industry and trans-
port) from those for sectors in which data are highly uncertain (e.g.,
residential, agriculture, and informal industry), because of their
reliance on a mix of largely traditional technologies and practices.
The inventory calculations and sectoral methodology improve-
ments made are detailed in Section 2 and in the supporting online
information. We describe the primary data sources for the year
2010 and the assumptions used in the spatial disaggregation to
25 km resolution (0.25 ). The estimated magnitudes of fuel con-
sumption and related emissions for 2015 are described in Section 3,
with a discussion of the differences from our 1996; these relate to
the growth in sectoral industrial production. The growth in emis-
sions from 1996 to 2015 is presented and discussed with other
inventories, and an analysis for India is included.
2. Methodology
Fuel consumption data available at the national and sectoral
levels from ministerial and Indian sectoral reports are used for the
period 1996e2011, and regression analysis extends the data to
2015. The sector-level technology divisions are for 2010; we used
dynamic emission factors related to technology penetration in in-
dustry and to emission standards in the transport sector.
2.1. Inventory calculations
The general approach for estimating emissions (Eq. (1)) of the
ith pollutant from a sector ‘s’ uses the sum of emissions from the
fuel consumption ‘F’ for energy transformation with fuel type ‘f’
using combustion technology ‘t’, and activity ‘A’, involving pro-
cesses or fugitive emissions ‘p’. ‘EF’ is the emission factor, based on
the fuel consumption for the process or fugitive activity. For large-
point source (LPS) industries, fuel consumption and production
data are derived at the level of the individual plant (Tier III
approach):
X X
Ei;s ¼ Fs;f ;t  EFi;s;f ;t þ As;p  EFi;s;p (1)
f ;t p
Emission factors for all pollutants are taken from a compilation
of measurements for specific technologies and fuel properties,
while those for BC and OC are derived as fractions of PM2.5, using
‘fBC’ and ‘fOC’, as shown in Eq. (2).
EFBC;s;f ;t ¼ EFPM2:5 ;s;f ;t  fBC;s;f ;t ; EFOC;s;f ;t ¼ EFPM2:5 ;s;f ;t  fOC;s;f ;t
(2)
Table 1
Important elements of Indian emission inventory (IND15).
Features Description
Regional and spatial 28 States and 7 Union Territories, distributed to district
disaggregation (sector specific proxy), distributed spatially to
25  25 km2
States: Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam,
Bihar, Chhattisgarha, Goa, Gujarat, Haryana, Himachal
Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Jharkhanda, Karnataka,
Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Manipur,
Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Orissa, Punjab,
Rajasthan, Sikkim, Tamilnadu, Tripura, Uttarakhanda,
Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal
Union Territories: Andaman and Nicobar Islands,
Chandigarh, Diu and Daman, Delhi, Lakshadweep,
Puducherry, Dadra and Nagar Haveli
Base year for energy 2015
use
Species Aerosol constituents and SO2: PM2.5, BC, OC, SO2
Ozone precursors: NOx, CO, NMVOCs (speciated to
ROGs), CH4
Greenhouse gases: CO2, N2O
Sector, source Industry: Thermal power, large point source (LPS),
categories other industry
Transport: On-road diesel, on-road gasoline/CNG,
railways/shipping/aviation
Residential: Cooking-solid fuel, cooking-LPG/kerosene/
biogas, lighting-kerosene
Agriculture: Open field burning, diesel use (tractors/
irrigation pumpset)
Informal industry: Solid fuel (brick production, agro &
food ind.), diesel oil
a
States formed after 2001.
 P. Sadavarte, C. Venkataraman / Atmospheric Environment 99 (2014) 353e364 355

2.2. Improvements in inventory methodology
The present inventory incorporates new political (state) di-
visions created after 2001 (Table 1). It estimates emissions for the
base year 2015 for five broad sectors: industry and transport (in
IND15A) and residential, agriculture, and informal industry (in
IND15B).
2.2.1. Technology divisions
Emissions modeling require apportioning national fuel use in
each sector into defined source categories (Table 1) and to tech-
nologies (Table SI1). Each technology has a specific emission factor.
The industry sector contains eight combustion and 20 process
technologies; the transport sector contains 17 technology divisions,
which separate pre- and post-2005 on-road vehicles (Table SI1).
Coherent source categories are defined to make a meaningful
estimation of a fuel consumption-weighted, mean emission factor
for each specific technology division. Using these factors along with
fuel consumption to estimate emissions projections for each source
category prevents the introduction of uncertainty that occurs when
averaging across dissimilar technologies. Fuel use is further dis-
aggregated with plant-by-plant data for 830 individual LPS
(Table SI2). District-wise disaggregation is used for the “other in-
dustry” source category. Improvements in methodology over our
previous inventory (Reddy and Venkataraman, 2002a,b, hereafter
called IND96) include incorporating the process emissions in the
cement, iron and steel and non-ferrous metal industries (Table 2).
The composition and age distribution of the on-road fleet in the
transport sector were recently addressed using data from India
(Pandey and Venkataraman, 2014) and these are used in our
emissions calculations.
2.2.2. Activity data
Closure was made between the fuel use estimated from indi-
vidual plant production and specific fuel consumption (SFC) and
that for industrial LPSs reported at a national level from indepen-
dent sources (Fig. SI1). For thermal power the plant-specific details
of the power load factor (PLF) and specific coal consumption (SCC),
and that of other secondary fuels, were reported in CEA (2010).
Cement Manufacturers' Association reported the fuel consumed for
captive power and process kilns in cement production (CMA, 2012).
These were apportioned to individual plants using the specific
energy consumption (SEC) and annual clinker production (CMA,
2007a,b). For iron and steel production, the coal use in integrated
steel plants (ISPs), coke ovens, and boilers (MoC, 2007) was avail-
able from 1996 to 2010 and extended with regression to 2015 by
assuming a constant growth rate. The fuel consumed by secondary
producers was compiled from JPC (2008). For sponge-iron pro-
duction, a share of the national fuel consumed was distributed to
each plant based on their rated production capacity (JPC, 2006). For
fertilizer production, natural gas uptake was apportioned plant-by-
plant using unit production details from FAI (2010). The individual
details of fuel consumed by refineries were compiled from annual
reports (IOCL, 2010; RIL, 2010). For non-ferrous metal production,
individual plant fuel use was reported for captive power, thermal
utilities, smelters, and integrated refining (Hindalco, 2011; Nalco,
2011; HZL, 2011). For other industries the fuel use for captive po-
wer was compiled (CMIE, 2010), while that for thermal utilities was
projected from IND96 using the growth in GDP. National closure
was not obtained for categories like thermal power (coal and nat-
ural gas), cement industry (solid fuel use). In this case, the national
fuel use by sector was apportioned by plant, based on specific
consumption.
The activity rate details for the transport sector, including
roadways, railways, shipping, and aviation, have been taken from
Pandey and Venkataraman (2014). The estimates of the on-road
vehicle population in each of the five categories relied on historic
vehicle sales data and the survival fraction approach detailed in
Pandey and Venkataraman (2014). Fuel consumption was esti-
mated using the on-road vehicle population, annual vehicle activity
and mileage, derived at the state level. Closure for national diesel
and gasoline consumption was obtained between bottom-up esti-
mates and top-down reports (MoPNG, 2012). Because of constraints
of data availability, we adopted a Tier I/II methodology for railways,
aviation, and shipping. For railways, MoR (2011) reported the fuel
consumption for locomotives, pumping engines, electricity-
generating units, and workshops. Total fuel consumption and in-
ternational bunkers are reported separately for shipping by MoPNG
(2012). The aggregate aviation turbine fuel (ATF) consumption was

Table 2
Activity from each industry showing process and fugitive emissions.

Industry Activity Technology PM2.5 BC OC SO2 NOx CO NMVOC CO2 CH4 N2O

Cement Cement production Cement kiln ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

Fertilizer Ammonia production Desulfurization unit ✓ ✓ ✓
CO2 steam regen. ✓ ✓ ✓
Condensate steam stripping ✓ ✓
Refineries & service station Crude refining Fugitive emissions ✓ ✓
FCC unit ✓ ✓ ✓
Coking unit ✓ ✓
Flaring ✓ ✓
Other Industries Mining Fugitive emissions ✓
Sulfuric acid Fugitive emissions ✓
Petrochemicals Process-Fugitive ✓
Othersa Process-Fugitive ✓
Non-ferrous Zinc Process emissions ✓ ✓
Copper Process emissions ✓ ✓
Lead Process emissions ✓ ✓
Aluminum Process emissions ✓ ✓
Iron and steel Coke prod. Coke oven ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Sinter Sinter plant ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Iron Blast furnace ✓ ✓ ✓
Steel BOF ✓ ✓
Sponge iron Sponge iron kiln ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Steel EAF/IF ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
a
Others include activities from Klimont et al., 2002.
356 P. Sadavarte, C. Venkataraman / Atmospheric Environment 99 (2014) 353e364
reported by MoPNG (2012) and IEA (2009), and used to divide the
total fuel use into domestic and international operations.
2.2.3. Emission factors
A common framework was used to estimate emissions of 10
pollutants of relevance to climate, air quality, and health. For in-
dustry, the technology-linked emission factors for most pollutants
were identified from measurement databases from USEPA (1996)
(Table SI3A-3C). The USEPA emission factors are measurement-
based values compiled over a period and updated at the industry
level for various combustion and process activities. These emission
factors are available with quality ratings from good to worse (from A
to E) that can be quantified for uncertainty estimates. In the absence
of region-specific emission factors, using a Tier II approach we
adopted the values resembling the combustion (operating condi-
tions) and process activities taking place in the respective in-
dustries. The fractions of BC and OC in PM2.5 (Table SI3A-3C) are
from Kupiainen and Klimont (2004) and Bond et al. (2004).
The SO2 and CO2 emission factors are based on Indian studies
(IND96, Garg et al., 2006) (Table SI4) that account for the grades of
Indian coal (Table SI5A-B). Measured emission factors were used for
NOx and CO from Indian pulverized-coal boilers (Chakraborty et al.,
2008). The emission factors for fugitive emissions of CH4 from coal
mining are from MoEF (2010). NMVOC emission factors from pro-
duction activities in other industries are from Klimont et al. (2002)
(Table SI3D).
Installed air pollution-control devices (APCD) include the elec-
trostatic precipitator (ESP) in thermal power, bag filters and multi-
cyclones in the cement industry, the ESP and bag filters in the iron
and steel industry, and multi-cyclones and bag filters in LPS and
other industries. The extent of emission control is not well known
in most industrial sectors. Based on regulations and earlier studies
(CEA Regulations, 2010; Garg et al., 2006) we assume that APCD
functions correctly 90% of the operating time for thermal power
plants in 2001e2010, 87% in 1991e2000, 84% in 1981e1990, 80% in
1971e1980, and 75% before 1970. The same fraction of 90% control
was assumed in for other LPSs, based on meeting the particulate
emission levels of national and international standards (CMA, 2010;
MoS, 2011). In other industries, because of a lack of stringent reg-
ulations and evidence, we assumed effective control of emissions
for 50% of the operating time.
For on-road vehicles we used Indian dynamometer measure-
ments of the emission factors for various in-use vehicles of different
technologies and vintages (ARAI, 2007) for PM2.5. We compared the
particulate emission factors from ARAI (2007) and Bond et al.
(2004) with Yan et al. (2011). Agreement was found for all vehicle
categories except two-stroke, two- and three-wheelers; we chose
ARAI (2007) emission factors for these technologies as represen-
tative of the Indian vehicles tested and the driving conditions. PM2.5
emission factors for two-stroke engines were based on measure-
ments for other regions (McDonald et al., 2005; Rijkeboer et al.,
2005; Clairotte et al., 2012; Martini et al., 2009). A comparison of
source-profile studies (Gillies and Gertler, 2000), cited by Bond
et al. (2004), provided a measurement-based BC and OC fraction
for all diesel vehicles. The emission factors for other pollutants
were compiled from USEPA's MOBILEv6.2 model, since for gaseous
pollutants, such as NMVOCs, NOx, and CO, the measured emission
factors from ARAI (2007) were much lower than those from
MOBILEv6.2. The MOBILEv6.2 model includes off-cycle effects and
evaporative and hot-soak emissions, which are significant for
gaseous pollutants. The SO2 emission factor was calculated using
the sulfur content of fuel complying with Bharat Standard (BS)
norms (Table SI4). For railways the available measured emission
factors for mainline and shunting locomotives were adapted from a
rail study reporting European diesel locomotive emissions (Hill
et al., 2005) for PM, CO, HC, and NOx. Default values were used
for GHGs (IPCC, 2006a,b). In shipping the emissions factors for PM,
BC, and OM were taken from Lack et al. (2009) (Texas Air Quality
Study) and the emission factors for ozone precursors and GHGs
were based on engine tests (IPCC, 2006a,b). For aviation, the
emission factors were considered separately for landing/take-off
(LTO) and cruise operations (Wilkerson et al., 2010; IPCC,
2006a,b). Further details on the emission factors can be found in
the supporting information.
2.3. Uncertainties
Uncertainties in the activity rates were calculated analytically,
assuming the underlying uncertainties in all input quantities to be
normally distributed. Other approaches used Monte Carlo simula-
tions (Lu et al., 2011; Zhao et al., 2011; Lam et al., 2013), using upper
and lower bounds for the variables. Dividing the fuel into a large
number of technology categories allowed use of the simpler
analytical approach (Bond et al., 2004), which provided closure
with national fuel supply figures. Uncertainty in activity rates was
derived using one of three methods, depending on the availability
and nature of the data: (a) Calculating the standard deviation from
a standard error of estimated parameters from the linear regression
of annual data from 1996 to 2010; (b) the upper and lower bounds,
or a standard deviation equal to the mid-point between summa-
tions of individual plant data, estimated using SFC, PLF, and the
reported national value (for thermal power); and (c) the mean and
standard deviation calculated from a set of three or more data
points obtained from different studies. Uncertainty in the emission
factors was estimated from the standard deviation in the set of
compiled emission factors of a particular pollutant from a particular
fuel technology combination. If the emission factor being used was
taken from a single reported source, especially combustion and
process emission factors from USEPA (1996) with a known rating
quality, the reported rating was quantified using the percentage
errors cited in IPCC (2006a,b) and EMEP (2009). The measured
emission factors with unspecified uncertainties were assigned the
highest-known uncertainty for the same pollutant and those from
similar technologies (process-based NMVOC emissions,
Table SI3D). Wherever emission factor measurements for a tech-
nology were not available an emission factor from a similar tech-
nology was chosen and assigned 100% uncertainty (<5% of the
technologies fall under this category, including fluidized bed
combustors and sponge-iron kilns). A spreadsheet-based approach
was developed for combining uncertainties in activity rates and
emission factors. A normal/lognormal distribution was assumed for
when standard deviation was less/greater than 30% of the mean
(IPCC, 2006a,b). Uncertainty propagation in the product of two
variables was followed using the sum-of-quadrature rule, calcu-
lated analytically. The upper and lower emission bounds were
calculated using the resultant lognormal parameters (geometric
mean and geometric standard deviation).
3. Results and discussion
First, we examined changes in fuel consumption based on an
analysis of Indian data for the period 1996e2015. This process
defined coherent sectors and source categories, discussed in Sec-
tion 2.2.1, and analyzed the fuel consumption trends within them.
Using a regression-based approach for fuel consumption in the
source categories, we calculated emissions for the years
1996e2015. To allow rational projection of emissions, we used the
technology detail for 2010 to calculate fuel consumption-weighted
emission factors for each of the six defined source categories
(Table SI3E).
 P. Sadavarte, C. Venkataraman / Atmospheric Environment 99 (2014) 353e364
3.1. Fuel consumption trends in industry and transport
Fig. 1 shows the fuel consumption trends in the industry and
transport sectors during 1996e2015. Fuel consumed in each source
category was converted to energy units using the respective net
calorific value (NCV) (MoPNG, 2012; MoC, 2007; TEDDY, 2010)
(Table SI7). The total energy consumed in the industry and trans-
port sectors during 2015 was estimated at 20 (16e24) EJ (industry:
82%, transport: 18%), a 2.3 times increase over IND96, with an
annual growth rate of 6.6% (simple average). Fuel consumption in
thermal power (largely coal based) increased 2.5 times, while that
in industry (largely coal) and transport (liquid petroleum)
increased by factors of 2.1 and 2.3, respectively. Since 1996, 135 new
coal-based plants and 43 oil- and gas-based plants, with an
installed capacity of 50 GW, have been added. For 2015 energy was
largely derived from coal (67%), followed by diesel (15%) and other
fuels, such as naphtha and refinery fuels (10%) and gas (8%). The
ratio of our total energy estimate to that of Lu et al. (2011) was 0.87
for 2010dthe base year of detailed calculations. It ranged 0.84e1.0
for other years, implying somewhat lower estimated fuel con-
sumption. In the industry sector (in the three listed source cate-
gories shown in Fig. 1) the ratio of our estimate to Lu et al. (2011)
varied by a factor 0.82e0.94. Our use of region-specific fuel-
weighted NCVs for different grades of industrial coal for India
makes our energy estimates from coal somewhat lower than those
of Lu et al. (2011). For fuel consumption in the transport sector, the
ratio of our estimate to that of Lu et al. (2011) varied by a factor
1e1.3. There is a discrepancy in the fraction of total diesel
consumed by on-road vehicles, reported as ~60% by MoPNG (2012),
but as ~70% by other studies (Baidya and Borkenkleefed, 2009;
Singh, 2006). The amount of diesel estimated by a bottom-up
approach (Pandey and Venkataraman, 2014) was closer to the
larger estimate, leading to a larger fuel consumption estimate for
transport.
3.2. Source categories influencing emission trends in industry and
transport
The fuel consumption trends for 1996e2015 were used to esti-
mate emission trends for the 10 pollutants for that period (Table 3;
Fig. SI2). Mean emission factors were developed for source cate-
gories in each sector (Table SI3E). As shown in Table SI3E, these
emission factors represent those for the technologies included in
each source category, which are similar, leading to rational aver-
aging. Evaluating the mean emission factors by source category
Fig. 1. Energy consumption trends from 1996 to 2015 in industry and transport sectors
and related source categories.
357
provides an opportunity to project emissions based on the fuel use
in these source categories, with constrained uncertainty, over pe-
riods of interest. Dynamic emission factors for this period were
derived (Table SI3E), reflecting changes in the technology mix and
emissions regulations. A hind-cast projection of 2010 emissions to
1996 provides corrected estimates for previously published emis-
sions in this period. Changes in inventory methodology include the
addition of particulate emissions from industrial process activities
(industries like those producing cement, non-ferrous metals, and
iron and steel and refineries); regulations representative of the
period; and inclusion of vehicle technologies, vehicle age, and
superemitters among on-road vehicles (Pandey and Venkataraman,
2014).
Emissions of PM2.5 from thermal power increased 2.1 times from
their 1996 level, while those from industry and transport increased
by factors of 2.2 and 1.3, respectively. The increase in PM2.5 emis-
sions resulted from increases in energy consumption in industrial
source categories and growth in process emissions, particularly
from the cement, and iron and steel industries in the LPS category.
Direct comparison with values in IND96 is not relevant, since the
former work assumed a significantly lower operating time of air
pollution control devices or APCD (50% changed to 90% to be
consistent with later studies) (CEA Regulations, 2010; Garg et al.,
2006; Zhang et al., 2009). Coal-fired thermal power plants not
using ESP account for 2% of coal consumption. We assumed a 50%
APCD operating time for these older power plants using multiple
cyclones and scrubbers. The estimated emissions are highly sensi-
tive to these assumptions, and actual power plant-operation data
are needed to improve the estimates. Increase in PM2.5 emissions
from 1996 to 2015 for transport sector was lower than the corre-
sponding increase in energy consumption, because of successive
reductions in the emission factor for new diesel vehicles following
the nationwide introduction of BS-II (2005) and BS-III norms
(2010), which show a 0.6 factor reduction during this period.
Average emission factors for gasoline vehicles also decreased, as the
share of two-stroke engines in the two- and three-wheeler fleet
decreased from 80% in 1996 to 5% in 2015. These are not compared
directly to previously published values because this work uses a
new methodology that employs a fleet model and superemitter
fraction (Pandey and Venkataraman, 2014).
The increases in emissions of BC and OC were identical to that
for fuel consumption during this period for both thermal power and
industry, using different assumptions. The new assumptions
include a process of accounting for emissions from coke ovens for
BC only, allocation of 75% of diesel consumption in the other in-
dustry category to heavy equipment use (Bond et al., 2004) with a
20% fraction of superemitters (Lu personal communication, 2014)
in industry. The increases in BC and OC emissions from transport
are consistent with corresponding trends for PM2.5 emissions as
this work used constant ratios of BC/PM2.5 and OC/PM2.5, by vehicle
technologies.
Emission control for SO2 is currently not mandated or imple-
mented in the Indian thermal power sector (CEA Regulations, 2010;
Guttikunda and Calori, 2013), therefore, SO2 emissions have
increased continuously since 1996. SO2 emissions in thermal power
increased by factors of 2.3 and 2.8 in industry because of increases
in energy consumption and the growth in process emissions,
respectively. Process activities, including those in non-ferrous
smelters, iron and steel industries, and FCC units and refineries,
were primary sources of emission increases. The large reduction of
SO2 emissions from transport is associated with successive re-
ductions in fuel sulfur content for both diesel and gasoline
mandated by fuel quality standards (the Bharat Standard norms
from II to IV, BS specification). Over this period, the fuel sulfur
358 P. Sadavarte, C. Venkataraman / Atmospheric Environment 99 (2014) 353e364

Table 3
Emission estimates of aerosols and precursors, ozone precursors and greenhouse gases from industry and transport sectors for 1996e2015.

Source categories PM2.5 emissions Gg/y SO2 emissions Gg/y

1996 2000 2005 2010 2015 1996 2000 2005 2010 2015

Thermal power 527 654 789 947 1114 1559 1992 2365 3087 3639
Large point source 506 586 750 942 893 894 1055 1524 2264 2586
Other industry 64 32 73 151 150 543 476 757 1144 972
On-road gasoline þ CNG 23 33 55 64 35 13 20 30 14 2
On-road diesel 165 174 170 204 195 533 476 124 43 35
Aviation/Shipping/Railways 4 3 4 7 7 22 18 22 58 48

Source categories BC emissions Gg/y OC emissions Gg/y

1996 2000 2005 2010 2015 1996 2000 2005 2010 2015

Thermal power 3 4 4 5 6 9 12 14 17 20
Large point source 32 34 44 58 41 29 33 43 56 52
Other industry 16 16 23 32 40 4 5 7 8 11
On-road gasoline þ CNG 1 2 4 6 11 17 26 42 47 25
On-road diesel 109 115 112 135 129 35 36 36 43 41
Aviation/Shipping/Railways 2 2 2 3 3 1 1 1 2 2

Source categories CO emissions Gg/y CH4 emissions Gg/y

1996 2000 2005 2010 2015 1996 2000 2005 2010 2015

Thermal power 307 390 485 641 754 5 7 8 12 15

Large point source 1719 2061 2568 3287 5746 196 252 311 284 348
Other industry 189 239 313 347 387 628 686 890 1160 1066
On-road gasoline þ CNG 2177 3201 5392 7947 10,206 23 34 60 52 77
On-road diesel 809 851 867 1312 1650 3 4 4 3 4
Aviation/Shipping/Railways 60 57 75 118 123 0 0 1 1 1

Source categories NMVOC emissions Gg/y NOx emissions Gg/y

1996 2000 2005 2010 2015 1996 2000 2005 2010 2015

Thermal power 25 32 41 84 98 1074 1330 1695 1930 2272

Large point source 226 308 372 528 650 438 506 640 856 980
Other industry 430 567 758 928 1129 302 381 499 556 707
On-road gasoline þ CNG 332 487 848 1416 2316 126 117 157 175 277
On-road diesel 217 228 233 346 443 1106 891 638 821 1033
Aviation/Shipping/Railways 12 12 15 24 25 152 145 191 276 288

Source categories CO2 emissions Tg y1 N2O emissions Gg/y

1996 2000 2005 2010 2015 1996 2000 2005 2010 2015

Thermal power 363 461 569 766 902 37 47 59 77 91

Large point source 216 240 307 402 470 4 4 5 7 6
Other industry 76 81 116 150 142 9 6 12 21 23
On-road gasoline þ CNG 10 146 26 45 72 1 1 3 5 8
On-road diesel 72 76 77 117 147 0 0 0 0 0
Aviation/Shipping/Railways 8 8 11 16 17 2 2 2 3 3

content was reduced from 0.05 to 0.004 in diesel and gasoline,
leading to an 80% decrease in SO2 emissions.
Other emissions calculated include ozone precursors and GHGs.
The largest source categories influencing changes in CO emissions
(largely from incomplete combustion) were process emissions from
LPSs and on-road gasoline vehicles. NMVOC emissions increased
from increases in industrial process emissions (production from
chemical and non-chemical industries) and fugitive emissions
(storage of organic solvents, paint application, and refineries) in the
industrial oil and gas source category. The increase in NMVOC
emissions from transport resulted from an increase in traffic vol-
ume of on-road gasoline vehicles between 1996 and 2015.
Increased CH4 emission is attributed to fugitive emissions from
increased coal mining activities, while those of NOx were from
increased fuel consumption in thermal power plants and diesel
vehicles. Among GHGs, CO2 and N2O emissions increased by a
factor 2.5, reflecting the increase in fuel consumption in industry
(from thermal power production). In addition, CO2 from the
transport sector increased by a factor 2.3, following the trends in
fuel consumption.
3.3. Technology divisions influencing emissions
As explained in Section 1, we used an emissions classification of
aerosol constituents (PM2.5, BC OC) and SO2, ozone precursors (CO,
NOx, NMVOC, CH4) and GHGs (CO2, N2O). Methane was included in
the ozone precursor category because of its shorter lifetime and
participation in tropospheric ozone chemistry (IGSD, 2013). This
section presents the details of emissions for 2015 with disaggre-
gation at the technology and activity level. The industry sector was
disaggregated into three source categories and 28 technology di-
visions, while the transport sector has three source categories and
17 technology and activity divisions (Table SI1). Figs. 2e4 show the
two most significant emitting technologies in each source category,
with the rest combined for easy visual representation. A rigorous
propagation of uncertainties was performed for each technology
and activity (see Section 3.5).
3.3.1. Aerosol constituents and SO2
Emissions of PM2.5 from industry sectors were estimated at 2.1
(0.5e7.3) Tg y1. Within industry, thermal power plants (PC
boilers), cement kilns and iron and steel smelters were identified as
 P. Sadavarte, C. Venkataraman / Atmospheric Environment 99 (2014) 353e364 359

Fig. 2. Aerosol and aerosol precursor emissions for 2015 and 1996 by sector, source category and technology division (PM2.5, SO2, BC and OC).

Fig. 3. Ozone precursor emissions for 2015 and 1996 by sector, source category and technology division (CO, CH4, NMVOC and NOx).
360 P. Sadavarte, C. Venkataraman / Atmospheric Environment 99 (2014) 353e364
Fig. 4. Greenhouse gas emissions for 2015 and 1996 by sector, source category and technology division (CO2 and N2O).
the most significant emitting technologies for PM2.5 and SO2
(Fig. 2). Cement kiln technology in India shifted from a wet/semi-
dry process to dry-process clinkerization over a period, which
reduced the specific energy consumption (SEC) of the kilns because
of incorporation of pre-heater stages using waste heat from the kiln
gases. However, this increased PM2.5 emissions, adding to those
from cyclone pre-heater/pre-calciner stages due to counter-current
flow of hot gases from the rotary kiln and raw material. Of the total
PM2.5 emissions from industry process- and combustion-based
activities contribute 37% and 63% respectively. Estimated emis-
sions of PM2.5 from transport were 0.24 (0.1e0.4) Tg y1 in 2015,
with the largest emissions from on-road diesel vehicles. Heavy-
duty diesel vehicles and superemitters were the largest emitting
technologies because of traffic volume and their high emission
factors.
Emissions of 0.23 Tg y1 BC, 0.15 Tg y1 OC was estimated from
the industry and transport sectors. The industry sector emitted 0.1
(0.01e0.5) Tg y1 BC and 0.08 (0.01e0.4) Tg y1 OC. The largest
emissions of BC from industry arise from the oil-fired boiler, coal
stokers and coke ovens used in iron and steel manufacturing.
Emissions from oil-fired boiler and stokers, used widely in industry,
were calculated assuming a 50% APCD functioning time, contrib-
uting 25% and 27% of the total BC emissions; coke-oven batteries
contributed 66%. Emissions of OC (73%) arise primarily from
cement kilns and coke ovens, followed by coal boilers in thermal
power, which do not emit much BC, but emit somewhat more OC
(Bond et al., 2004). The transport sector emitted 0.14 (0.1e0.3)
Tg y1 BC and 0.07 (0.02e0.2) Tg y1 OC. The primary cause for both
emission types (92 and 78%, respectively) was diesel vehicles.
Emissions of SO2 in 2015 were estimated at 7 (6.0e9.6) Tg y1
from the industry sector using the sulfur content of the fuel
(Table SI4), assuming that all of the sulfur is converted to SO2, fol-
lowed by 100% emissions from liquid and gaseous fuels, but 2.5%
retention in coal fly-ash for thermal power plants and captive po-
wer generation and 22.5% retention in stokers for thermal utilities
(following IND96). The most significant SO2 emitters in the in-
dustrial sector are thermal power PC boilers, followed by stokers
and oil-fired boilers. High SO2 emissions also arise from process-
based activities in non-ferrous smelters, since the raw material
used contains metal sulfides. We estimated emissions of 0.08
(0.04e0.3) Tg y1 SO2 from the transport sector and 0.035 Tg y1 of
that was emitted by diesel vehicles. The vehicle fuel was assumed
to comply with BS-III norms, with the fuel sulfur content for gas-
oline and diesel specified at 0.035 and 0.015%, respectively (Auto
Fuel Policy, 2003).
3.3.2. Ozone precursors
There is interest in understanding and addressing climate
change caused by non-CO2 forcing agents, including ozone (IGSD,
2013) and its precursors. Short-lived climate pollutants, including
 P. Sadavarte, C. Venkataraman / Atmospheric Environment 99 (2014) 353e364
ozone precursors, are responsible for a substantial fraction of the
current global warming (Shindell et al., 2012). Here, the same en-
ergy database and consistent assumptions were used to calculate
ozone-precursor emissions, such as NOx, CO, and NMVOCs, from
Indian fuel consumption and process activities.
Emissions of NOx from industry for 2015 were estimated at 4
(0.6e13) Tg y1 with a 57% contribution from thermal power fol-
lowed by 21% from LPS, with cement kilns and the iron and steel
industry high-polluting technologies (Fig. 3). Measured NO emis-
sion factors for PC boilers from Chakraborty et al. (2008) were used,
which were measured from 11 generating units during 2003e04
using flue-gas analyzers. Oxides of nitrogen (NOx) usually consist
primarily of NO (95% volume or more) with minor amounts of NO2
(USEPA, 1996), hence the NO emission factor was used for NOx. Our
estimate from thermal power was compared with Lu and Streets
(2012) who studied NOx emissions with various control scenarios
using low NOx boilers (LNB) with boiler classifications across India
during the period 1996e2010. The present estimates for
1996e2010 were within a factor of 0.93e1.02 of their S1 and S3
scenariosdwell within the uncertainty bands for these emissions.
Emissions of 1.6 (1e4.9) Tg y1 NOx were estimated from transport,
with a 65% contribution from diesel vehicles and a 17% contribution
from gasoline and CNG vehicles. The high NOx-emitting technolo-
gies among diesel vehicles were heavy-duty vehicles followed by
buses; among gasoline vehicles the significant sources of emissions
were two- and three-wheeled vehicles.
For 2015, CO emissions were estimated at 6.9 (1e19) Tg y1 from
the industry sectors and 12 (6e22) Tg y1 from the transport sec-
tors. In industry, 81% of emissions were from LPS (the iron and steel
industry and cement kilns) and 11% from thermal power. In the iron
and steel industry, coke manufacturing in coke-oven batteries
proved to be the main CO-emitting technology, using the emission
factors from Zhang et al. (2009) appropriate for developing coun-
tries. Within transport, 85% of CO emissions were from spark-
ignition gasoline vehicles and 14% from diesel vehicles, with two
wheel vehicles making the highest contribution (45%), reflecting
their high emission factor.
NMVOC emissions were estimated for 2015 at 1.5
(0.4e5.6) Tg y1 from industry and 3 (1.2e5.7) Tg y1 from trans-
port, largely from gasoline vehicles. Gasoline NMVOC emissions,
including exhaust and evaporative components, come primarily
from two- and three-wheelers. NMVOC emissions in industry
result primarily from process and fugitive emissions from oil and
gas (60%) with a minor contribution from combustion. Emissions
from storage of organic chemicals, petrochemical processing,
fugitive emissions from refineries, transport depots, and the
application of paints and solvents were estimated using the
methodology of Klimont et al. (2002). CH4 emissions were esti-
mated at 1.4 Tg y1 (0.1e7.9) from industry and 0.1 (0.03e0.2)
Tg y1 from transport. In industry, the largest emitter was coal
mining (74%) with the balance resulting from fugitive industrial
emissions. Both underground and open-cast mining was consid-
ered, with an assumption of degree II mining (based on the per-
centage of inflammable gas emitted from coal mines), with
emission factors following INCCA (MoEF, 2010). In transport gaso-
line vehicles were the most significant CH4 emitters.
3.3.3. Greenhouse gases
CO2 emissions were estimated using factors largely consistent
with INCCA (MoEF, 2010) and the fuel consumption database
developed in this work. The CO2 emissions for industry were esti-
mated based on the carbon content of fuels (Table SI5AeB). Region-
specific CO2 emission factors for non-coking and coking coal were
estimated using the production-weighted carbon content of
different grades of Indian coal in a stoichiometric ratio of CO2
361
(Table SI5AeB). The estimated emissions for 2015 were 1515
(1178e1970) Tg y1 CO2 from industry and 236 (136e396) Tg y1
CO2 from the transport sector. The primary emitters in industry
were thermal power followed by LPS (iron and steel and cement)
(Fig. 4). In the transport sector CO2 emissions were largely from
diesel vehicles, followed by gasoline vehicles. This agreed with
transport emissions from INCCA (MoEF, 2010). The CO2 emissions
were mainly governed by the fuel used in a source category. In
industry, the largest coal consumers were the thermal power, iron
and steel, and cement industries. Similarly, in transport, a larger
amount of diesel was consumed by vehicles as compared to gaso-
line, CNG, or ATF.
We only estimate N2O emissions from combustion, as soils and
agricultural practices are outside the purview of this work. N2O
emissions for 2015 were estimated at 0.12 (0.04e0.28) Tg y1 from
industry and 0.012 (0.003e0.04) Tg y1 from transport. The pri-
mary emitters were thermal power (PC boilers) and other industry
(stokers and FBC); in transport they were gasoline vehicles (two-
and three-wheelers) and railways.
3.4. Comparison among emission estimates
Aerosol emission trends (Table 3, Fig. SI2) were compared with
those from 1996, Garg et al. (2006), INTEX-B (Zhang et al., 2009),
GAINS (Klimont et al., 2009) and Lu et al. (2011). This includes LPS
and other industries in the industry sector, while previous studies
included these as well as brick production. Since emissions from
brick production were not explicitly given, the “industry plus brick
production” emissions in previous studies (Garg et al., 2006; Zhang
et al., 2009; Klimont et al., 2009; Lu et al., 2011) were scaled down
by the ratios of emissions from industry to those from “industry
plus brick production” (Table SI9). These ratios were invariant over
time for a give pollutant. For example, for PM2.5, OC, NOx, SO2 and
CO2 it was >0.9, but 0.5e0.9 for BC and CO, reflecting their larger
emissions from incomplete combustion in traditional brick-kiln
technologies. The estimated PM2.5 emissions were in good agree-
ment (factor of 1.3) for 2006 (Zhang et al., 2009). The emissions
from transport were almost identical in the two studies, while the
difference for industry is attributable to the inclusion of process
emissions, particularly in the cement and iron and steel industries.
Emissions from transport also compared well with previously
published works and were 1.05 of those from Baidya and Borken-
Kleefeld (2009) for the base year 2005. Compared to previous
studies, BC emissions were somewhat higher (within 10%) than
published values for several years (Klimont et al., 2009; Lu et al.,
2011), because of similar assumptions related to coke ovens,
diesel in heavy equipment use, and the fraction of superemitters.
The BC emissions are larger than those for 2006 (Zhang et al.,
2009) and for 2015 (Klimont et al., 2009) since the older studies
did not include the new sources. OC emissions, however, were
somewhat lower (within 20%) of the published values for several
years because of the high APCD rates in the industry sector and
implementation of BS norms in the transport sector, which reduced
PM2.5 and its constituents. SO2 emissions agreed within 20% with
those in Garg et al. (2006), INTEX-B (Zhang et al., 2009), Lu et al.
(2011) and GAINS (Klimont et al., 2009) for the years 2000, 2004,
2005, 2006, 2008 and 2010 (Fig. SI2). The somewhat lower SO2
emissions estimated here resulted from both lower overall energy
consumption (0.85) and in the emission factors used for industry
and thermal power, which were 0.95 and 0.73 for coal-based
emissions (Lu et al., 2011) with the inclusion of process emissions.
Ozone-precursors emissions for 1996e2015 (Table 3, Fig. SI2)
compared with those from other inventories for the years 2000,
2005, 2006 and 2010 (Garg et al., 2006; Zhang et al., 2009; Klimont
et al., 2009). CO emissions were a factor of ~6 higher than those in
362 P. Sadavarte, C. Venkataraman / Atmospheric Environment 99 (2014) 353e364
Garg et al. (2006) for the years 2000 and 2005 in the industry
sector. This large difference is attributed to the inclusion of CO
emissions from clinker production and the iron and steel industry.
The CO emissions in industry were 83% of those reported in INTEX-
B (Zhang et al., 2009) from the use of emission factors for rotary-
cement kilns (used in India), which are lower than those for the
shaft-cement kilns used in China (Streets et al., 2006). CO emissions
from transport in previous studies varied by about a factor of 5
among themselves (Ramachandra and Shwetmala, 2009;
Guttikunda and Mohan, 2014). Fuel consumption estimates agree
among these previous studies and the present work. The differ-
ences among the studies appear to be from the choice of signifi-
cantly different emission factors. The variability in the CO emission
factor attributable to ambient temperature is within a factor of 2,
for a maximum temperature ranging from 30 to 50  C, as estimated
from MOBILEv6.2. The emissions estimated in this work, using the
MOBILEv6.2 emission factors at 45  C, lie close to the estimates in
Baidya and Borken-Kleefeld (2009) and Ramachandra and
Shwetmala (2009), as well as close to the central value of the
large range in previous work. NOx emissions from industry were
close to those from earlier studiesdabout 0.97 times those in
GAINS for 2010 (Klimont et al., 2009). Our energy consumption was
about 20% lower because of the difference in the NCV of fuels used
and the differences in the dynamic emission factors used in GAINS
during 2000e2010 for technologies such as oil-fired thermal power
and gas-fired industrial boilers. NOx emissions from transport were
0.55e0.6 times lower than those in previous studies (Zhang et al.,
2009; Baidya and Borken-Kleefeld, 2009; Fulton and Eads, 2004),
from our choice of emission factors (from Klimont et al., 2009),
based on findings in Ghude et al. (2013). Through top-down esti-
mation of NOx emissions, using satellite retrieved NO2 columns,
Ghude et al. (2013) found that bottom-up inventories such as
INTEX-B overestimated NOx emissions from sources like transport
and residential. Our NMVOC emissions from industry agreed well
with those in previous studies (Zhang et al., 2009; Klimont et al.,
2009). However, for the transport sector, the NMVOC emissions
were 73% of those in INTEX-B. This is likely due to the use of a
higher emission factor for India (personal communication, Q. Zhang,
2014). The estimates agree within a factor of 1e1.3 with those in
Baidya and Borken-Kleefed (2009) and Guttikunda and Mohan
(2014).
The emission trends for GHGs for 1996e2015 (Table 3, Fig. SI2)
were compared with those in INCCA MoEF (2010) for the base year
2007 and with Garg et al. (2006) for the base years 2000 and 2005.
CO2 emissions from industry agreed within 5%, while those from
transport were somewhat lower. The main source of methane here
is fugitive emissions from coal mining, since this inventory does not
deal with agricultural practices. There is better agreement (0.85
lower) with MoEF (2010), but a significant difference (0.65 lower)
from Garg et al. (2006) for the years 2000 and 2005. As the fugitive
emission factors used in all three studies are the same, the differ-
ences arise from the amount of activity or the annual amount of
coal mined. The present study exhibits an overall consistency with
respect to the magnitudes of emissions estimated in other studies,
for 2006, 2007 and 2010, for various pollutants (IND96, Zhang et al.,
2009; MoEF, 2010; Lu et al., 2011) and the harmonization of
technology-mix assumptions and emission factors provides
consistent emission trends for 1996e2015.
3.5. Major sources of uncertainties in emissions
The uncertainty in emissions was propagated using the un-
certainties in activities and emission factors as discussed in Section
2.3. The uncertainty in activities, i.e., fuel consumption and pro-
duction data, followed a normal distribution function, whereas the
uncertainty in emission factors quantified from the quality rating
using IPCC (2006a,b) and EMEP (2009) guidelines followed a log-
normal distribution when the standard deviation was above 30%
of the mean. Uncertainties were calculated at the source-category
level, using the sum-of-quadrature rule, taking in to account the
correlation of fuel consumption in the different source categories.
For 1996 emission estimates, the lack of technology divisions
within a source category, led to higher relative standard deviation,
particularly in emission factors, resulting in larger relative standard
deviation in overall emissions. In contrast, 2015 emissions incor-
porated detailed technology divisions in each source category,
leading to lower standard deviation shown in Table SI8. The major
source of uncertainty in emission for each species was analyzed by
identifying the uncertainty contributed by each source category
(Fig. SI3). The uncertainty contribution to total emissions was found
to be similar to their mean contribution by source categories for
PM2.5, CH4 and NOx emissions. Contribution to high uncertainty in
BC, OC, and CO (50e75%) was observed from industry LPS source
category. This differed from that observed in the mean emission
estimate, reflecting the high uncertainty (or poor quality rating) in
emission factors for process-based emissions. For NMVOC emis-
sions, 85% of the uncertainty contribution was observed from in-
dustry sector and 15% from transport, with large contributions from
other industry and LPS, from a high assigned uncertainty in emis-
sion factors, in the absence of region-specific measurements. Using
region-specific CO2 emission factors for coal in the industry sector
resulted in a lower contribution to uncertainty compared to that
from the transport sector. The uncertainty contribution for industry
was 22% and that from transport 78%. A relatively high uncertainty
was estimated from railways because of poor-quality emission
factors for diesel locomotives.
4. Conclusions
A multi-pollutant inventory was developed across India for
1996e2015 for emissions from industry and transport sectors,
including fuel consumption, process and fugitive emissions, and
solvent use. In industry the increase in PM2.5, SO2, CO, and NMVOC
emissions during this period was a factor of 2.3e2.7 larger than the
increase in fuel consumption. This is explained by a growth in
process emissions resulting from an increase production activity. In
transport, the increase in emissions of PM2.5, BC, OC, SO2, and CO
from diesel and gasoline vehicles was smaller than the corre-
sponding fuel consumption increase, because of implementation of
emissions and fuel quality norms. Emissions of NMVOC, CH4 and
N2O from transport followed the growth in fuel consumption at the
source-category level. Process and fugitive activities added about
50% to industry emissions of PM2.5, BC, SO2, NOx, CO2 and N2O,
while they contributed about 80% to CO, NMVOC, and CH4 emis-
sions. The most significant emitting technologies include
pulverized-coal boilers used for thermal power and process emis-
sions from LPSs for PM2.5 and diesel vehicles, particularly super-
emitters, for BC. Gasoline vehicles were the major source of NMVOC
and CO emissions, while open-cast coal mining contributed to high
CH4 emissions (fugitive). High NOx emissions were from thermal
power and diesel vehicles. Large uncertainties in the emission
factors (1.25e2.75) governed the total uncertainty in emissions,
pointing to an urgent need for region-specific emission measure-
ments from a variety of sources.
Acknowledgments
We thank Zifeng Lu and David Streets of the Argonne National
Laboratory and Qiang Zhang, Tsinghua University, and Y.S. Mayya,
IIT Bombay, for helpful suggestions. The Department of Science and
 P. Sadavarte, C. Venkataraman / Atmospheric Environment 99 (2014) 353e364
Technology, Climate Change Programme, supports the Centre for
Excellence in Climate Studies at IIT Bombay.
Appendix A. Supplementary data
Supplementary data related to this article can be found at http://
dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2014.09.081.
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