SOCAR Proceedings Special Issue No.

2 (2022) 013-025

Economy of oil and gas industry

journal home page: http://proceedings.socar.az

ASSESSMENT OF THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

OF ELECTRIC POWER ENTERPRISES: APPROACHES, MODELS, TECHNOLOGIES

Z. F. Mamedov1, S. H. Qurbanov1, E. D. Streltsova2, А.I. Borodin*3, I. Yakovenko2, А.А. Аliev3

1
Azerbaijan State University of Economics, Baku, Azerbaijan
2
Platov South Russian State Polytechnic University (NPI), Novocherkassk, Russia
3
Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, Moscow, Russia
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

ABSTRACT KEYWORDS
____________________________________________________________________________________________________ ________________

This article poses and solves the problem of building a model toolkit for assessing the level of sustainable
Sustainable
development of electric power enterprises. The indicators characterizing the state of the enterprise in terms of
development;
economic, environmental and social characteristics are proposed. In the economic aspect, it is proposed to focus on
Electric power
such a threat to sustainable economic development as economic insolvency. In the process of modeling economic
enterprises;
insolvency, Altman's five-factor model scenarios are used. To resolve the contradictions between economic
Mathematical
development, the rational use of resources and the negative impact on the environment, the article proposes a
modeling;
logical-linguistic model that allows to resolve this conflict. Logical-linguistic
approach.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
© 2022 «OilGasScientificResearchProject» Institute. All rights reserved.

The fuel and energy complex is the basis of global
economic development. The evolution of industry as the main
sphere of material production in developed and developing
countries is connected with the fuel and energy economy. For
any country, the enterprises of the general energy system are
not only a support for the stable functioning of the branches
of the national economy, but also a vital factor in the existence
of its regions due to the supply of fuel and electricity to the
population and business organizations. The fuel and energy
complex is a complex intersectoral system of extraction and
production of fuel and energy, as well as their transportation,
distribution and use. In this system, a special place is
occupied by electric power enterprises, as well as those that
are also complex engineering and economic complexes.
Therefore, the strategic goal of any national energy policy
is to ensure the sustainability of the development of the
electro-energy sector to economic, man-made and natural
threats and to strive to minimize the damage caused by
the manifestations of various de-stabilizing factors. As you
know, the concept of "sustainable development", as a new
paradigm for the development of civilization, was introduced
into scientific and practical use in 1987 by the International
Commission (Brutland Commission) on Environment and
Development. The concept of "Sustainable development"
carries the semantic load of the concept of sustainable
development, which ensures the satisfaction of current needs
and, at the same time, does not jeopardize the satisfaction
of the needs of future generations. All this actualizes the
*E-mail: aib-2004@yandex.ru
http://dx.doi.org/10.5510/OGP2022SI200717
problem of developing and implementing a long-term energy
policy that promotes economic growth and continuously
supports sustainable development. The solution of this
problem requires the use of complex modeling tools to assess
the degree of achievement of results based on an integral
indicator. Sustainable development is a trend concept of
the development of civilization, which proceeds from the
need to ensure a global balance between solving socio-
economic problems and preserving the environment. Due to
the relevance of this concept, as well as the growth of energy
consumption around the world, a wide range of studies is
currently devoted to the topic of sustainable development
of electric power enterprises. The current situation in the
electric power market, on the one hand, makes it necessary
to solve the problem of sustainability of electric power
companies by maximizing the profitability of their entire
life cycle through modeling design solutions [1-4]. Recently,
due to the growing indicators of global energy consumption
[6], there has been a significant increase in anthropogenic
emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere [2,3].
In this regard, the number of publications on the use of
renewable energy sources in order to reduce carbon dioxide
emissions into the atmosphere has significantly increased
in the scientific literature. One of the ways to solve the
problem of ensuring the sustainability of the development
of electric energy organizations is the use of alternative
energy sources through the use of biomass gasification
technologies [6-12]. The development of social technologies
and socio-cultural innovations have played a significant
role in solving tactical and strategic tasks of improving and
developing the electric power industry [13]. Recent debates

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 Z. F. Mamedov et al. / SOCAR Proceedings Special Issue No. 2 (2022) 013-025
about the environmental and social constraints of economic
growth have inspired scientific research not only in the field
of energy [14, 15]. Human activity as a central and, at the
same time, problematic thematic aspect of sustainability has
been considered recently by many authors [16]. The question
that a holistic view of the synergetic effect of the «evolving
behavior of man, the economy and the environment» is
increasingly being discussed [3]. Modern approaches to
sustainable development are based on new production
paradigms, such as digitalization and intellectualization of
production, contributing to achieving a more sustainable
future with respect to production and consumption processes
[17-27]. Digital industry 4.0. implies the introduction of
cyber-physical systems, which leads to a growing interest in
conducting research in the field of sustainable development
of energy sector enterprises [28-30]. Taking into account
the fact of a positive correlation of economic results with
environmental and social results, as well as in connection with
the representation of environmental and social components
by their pronounced characteristics, studies on fuzzy logical
models of decision support appear in the scientific literature
on sustainable development [31-39]. This article proposes a
mathematical model for assessing the level of sustainability
of electric power enterprises by an integral indicator with
economic, environmental and social components.
A necessary condition for the functioning of electric
power and energy system enterprises is their ability to
self-development, which implies an increase in production
capacity and an increase in the efficiency of functioning with
active interaction with the external environment. In the course
of this interaction, the management system of the enterprise,
possessing the property of self-regulation, activates the
blocks of response to external and internal negative factors
that take it out of equilibrium, and mechanisms to counteract
them. Enterprises of the electric energy sector in the process
of achieving their goal of sustainable development should
strive to create such conditions for long-term technological
and economic development that ensure reliable and
uninterrupted supply of electric energy to consumers with
rational use of resources and minimal negative impacts
on the environment. Consequently, the implementation of
the sustainable development functionality is related to the
resolution of contradictions between the development and
sustainability of the electric power enterprise. To assess
the degree of achievement of the goal, we need tools
based on the use of mathematical methods and allowing
us to resolve the conflict between contradictory factors of
improving the efficiency of the organization's functioning
(the use of high-quality materials, effective technologies,
increased profitability, etc.) and factors of compliance with
the provisions of social and environmental policy. In this
article, a model toolkit is proposed that allows assessing the
sustainable development of electric power enterprises in
terms of economic, environmental and social components.
Currently, many approaches and metrics have been
developed that allow us to quantify the degree of sustainability
of organizations. Among these approaches, special attention
is focused on methods of analyzing such threats to sustainable
economic development as economic insolvency (bankruptcy),
in which an enterprise loses the prospect of its development
and enters bankruptcy proceedings. A wide range of models
for predicting bankruptcy risk is known in the scientific
14
literature, among which the most popular are the models of
Altman, J. Conan, M. Golder, Fox, Taffler, etc. Table 1 shows
models in which the bankruptcy scenario is determined on
the basis of formal expressions, and ultimately described by
qualitatively expressed, verbal characteristics of probability.
But the concept of sustainable development, along with a
set of economic characteristics that assess various aspects of
production, includes environmental and social components.
At the same time, the environmental component is aimed at
solving the problems of consumption of natural resources
and restoration of ecosystems, and the social component
is aimed at increasing well-being, ensuring employment,
achieving social justice, improving the quality of human and
social capital. In this article, sets of indicators X = ( P , E , S) are
proposed, consisting of economic P, environmental E and
social S components for assessing the level of sustainable
development of an electric power enterprise.
The ecological component is formally represented by
the vector E = ( e1 , e2 , e 3 ) , where e1 - the presence in the
environmental policy of an environmental management
system for assessing compliance with international standards
ISO 14001; e2 - the presence of a system for preliminary
assessment of the impacts of the company's activities on
the environment; e3 - the presence of requirements for the
efficient use of resources. The social aspect of the sustainable
development of an electric power enterprise is assessed by
a set of indicators S = ( s1 , s2 , s3 , s4 ) , where s1 is the stability
of the personnel; s2 is the stability of material security; s3
is the stability of the provision of working conditions; s4
is the stability of the socio-cultural climate in the collective.
The task of constructing tools for assessing the level of
sustainable development of an electric power enterprise is to
create a mathematical model Ψ : ( P , E , S) → F that displays
the values of indicators P, E, S in the range of values of the
integral indicator F, reflecting the interaction of economic,
environmental and social factors.
Due to the verbally expressed values of the indicators P,
E, S, their formal descriptions are carried out through logical-
linguistic research. In this case, the characteristics P, E, S are
represented by linguistic variables P = < N ( P),T ( P),U P , µ P > ,
ei = < N ( ei ),T ( ei ),U ei , µ e i > , i = 1.3 , s j = < N ( s j ),T ( s j ),USj , µ Sj > ,
j = 1.4 with 3
names 4 N ( P ), N ( ei ), N ( s j ) , sets of terms
T ( P),T ( E) =
= T ( ei ),T (S)  T ( s j ) , universal sets U P ,U E ,US and
=i 1=j 1
sets of functions of properties = { µ Pk }4k 1 , µ ei =
,{ µ ei }i3 1=
,{ µ sj }4j 1 . The
linguistic variable P includes possible bankruptcy scenarios
proposed by Altman's five-factor model T ( P ) = < p1 , p2 , p 3 , p4 > .
p
The components i , i = 1.4 models T ( P ) are Altman coefficients
describing scenarios of economic insolvency with the following
qualitatively expressed characteristics of bankruptcy risks:
p1 - very high; p2 - high; p3- possible; p4- unlikely. Variables
p1, p2, p3, p4 are considered as fuzzy sets with a set of belonging
functions µ P = ( µ p1 , µ p 2 , µ p3 , µ p4 ) ; µ pi : U P → [0,1] , i = 1.4.
Components of environmental components E = ( e1 , e2 , e 3 )
are described by the verbal characteristics given above and are
represented by linguistic variables ei = < N ( ei ),T ( ei ),U ei , µ e i >
with elements of term sets T ( e ) {Yes , Partially , No}, i = 1.3 .
The semantics of fuzzy sets «Yes», «Partially», «No» are identified
byaccessoryfunctions,respectively { µ ei (ω )}i3=1 , µ ei (ω ) : U ei → [0.1],
ω ∈ T ( ei ) , i = 1.3 . The formalization of the verbal characteristics
T ( s j ) = {Yes , Partially , No} of the elements s1 , s2 , s3 , s4 of the
social component of the sustainable development of an energy
enterprise, as linguistic variables s j = < N ( s j ),T ( s j ),US , µ S > , is
j j
 Z. F. Mamedov et al. / SOCAR Proceedings Special Issue No. 2 (2022) 013-025
carried out by means of fuzzy multiple modeling. Accessory
functions, µSj (σ ) : USj → [0.1] , σ ∈ T ( s j ), j = 1.3 fuzzy sets «Yes»,
«Partially», «No» reflect their semantics. Analytical expressions
of the membership functions of fuzzy sets given on universes
U= P
U=ei
U=Sj
[0.5] are determined by the method of expert
assessments. The integral characteristic N ( F ) of the sustainable
development of the electric power complex enterprise is also
formalized by a linguistic variable F = < N ( F ),T ( F ),U F , µ F >
with a thesaurus T ( F ) = { Low , Middle , HIgh} , the elements of
which are represented by fuzzy sets with membership functions
{ µ F (α )}, µ F (α ) : U F → [0.1], α ∈ T ( F ), set on the universe
U F = [0.5].
The definition of the membership functions of fuzzy sets
is proposed to be carried out on the basis of the elements of
the matrix δ = δ ij , filled in during the survey of experts.
The rows i of the matrix δ ij correspond to expert
identifications, and the columns j correspond to values
from the definition areas U= P
U=ei
U= Sj
[0.5] of fuzzy sets.
Matrix elements take values from a two-element set δ ij ∈ {0.1}
. The consultant performing the examination and identified
by the variable i is asked to write at the intersection of the
line i and the column j of the matrix is the value δ ij = 1 , if
from his point of view the numerical value j ∈ U of the fuzzy
set taken from the universe U can be estimated verbally by
the expressed value from the term set. The consultant i is
invited to write at the intersection of the line i and the column
j of the matrix value δ ij = 0 , if, in his opinion, the numerical
value of the fuzzy set does not belong to the class determined
by the qualitatively expressed characteristic of the term set.
The results of the expert survey are used to determine the
measure of whether the value β ∈ U ij belongs to a fuzzy set
1
k
according to the formula µ = n ∑ δ , where n is the number
ij
i =1
of interviewed experts. The choice of analytical expressions
formalizing the functions of the relevance of fuzzy sets for
qualitatively defined characteristics of indicators P, E, S was
carried out on the basis of expert surveys of consultants. The
article presents the results of expert surveys in determining
the membership functions of fuzzy sets p1 , p2 , p3 , p4
assessing the qualitative characteristics of the measure of the
possibility of bankruptcy. The results of expert assessments
are given in tables 2, 3.
After mathematical processing of the data entered in the
tables, a hypothesis was put forward about the expediency of
using trapezoidal membership functions µ P = ( µ p1 , µ p 2 , µ p3 , µ p4 );
µ pi : U P → [0.1], i = 1.4, describing the semantics of fuzzy sets p1,
p2 , p3, p4. Graphs of accessory functions µ pi : U P → [0.1], i = 1.4
are shown in figures 1 and 2. Selection of accessory functions
{ µ ei (ω )}i3=1, µ pi : U P → [0.1], ω ∈ T ( ei ), i = 1.3 , µSj (ψ ) : USj → [0.1],
ψ ∈ T ( s j ), j = 1.3 for fuzzy sets of «Yes», «Partially»,
«No» linguistic variables ei = < N ( ei ),T ( ei ),U ei , µ e i >, i = 1.3,
sj = < N ( s j ),T ( s j ),USj , µ Sj > , j = 1.4 it was implemented
similarly. Analytical expressions of the accessory functions
of the ecological, economic and social components are given
in tables 4-6.
This article proposes a mathematical model of
«Sustainability» that implements the mapping P × E × S → F
in order to quantify the level of sustainability of the
development of an electric power enterprise with qualitatively
expressed characteristics P , E , S. The conceptual scheme of
the «Sustainability» model is shown in figure 3.
The «Sustainability» model is a fuzzy learning expert
system based on the knowledge of professional specialists
in the field of assessing the sustainable development of
electric power enterprises. The model is trained based on the
inference rules compiled by experts. An example of one of the
rules has the following form:
If ( P is p1 ) and ( e1 is N 0 ) and ( e is N 2 o ) and ( e 3 is N 0 ) and
( 1 is Yes ) and ( 2 is Yes ) and ( 3 is Yes ) end( s4 is Yes ) then
s s s
( F is Low ).
The graphical form of the results of the operation of the
«Sustainability» model is shown in figure 4.
By setting the values of variables P = ( p1 , p2 , p 3 , p4 ) ,
E = ( e1 , e2 , e 3 ) , S = ( s1 , s2 , s3 , s4 ) at the input of the model, the
expert can easily obtain an integral assessment of the level of
sustainability of an energy enterprise.
As is known, to control the value of the level of stability of an
enterprise, it is necessary to operate with a functional dependence
F = Ψ( P , E , S), which allows ranking the input control variables
P , E , S according to the degree of their influence on the effective
feature F. Due to the fact that the fuzzy logic model does not
make it possible to obtain such a functional dependence, the
article suggests conducting experiments with the «Sustainability»
model. The statistical data obtained as a result of the experiments,
demonstrating quantitative estimates of the influence of factorial
features P , E , S on the functional feature F, are proposed to be
used in the course of mathematical and statistical analysis. A
fragment of the quantitative characteristics collected during the
experiments on the «Sustainability» model are shown in table 7.
The data obtained during the experiments were processed
using the «Statistica» application software package. Figures
5 and 6 show graphs of the dependencies of the integral
indicator of sustainability on economic, environmental and social
indicators. The assessment of the closeness of the relationship
between factorial signs P , E , S and functional signs F was based
on the calculation of Pearson correlation coefficients (table 8). In
the table variables rF / P , rF / e 1 , rF / e 2 , rF / e 3 , rF / s1 , rF / s 2 , rF / s 3 , rF / s 4
mean the closeness of the statistical relationship between the
dependent variable * * and the independent variables P, e1, e2 ,
e3 , s1, s2, s3, s4 by the number of observations n = 63.
The results of the experiments demonstrate the inverse
relationship between the integral stability indicator F and
the characteristic P describing the scenario of the insolvency
of an energy enterprise. Dependent variables e1, e2, e3, s1, s2, s3,s4
and the indicator F are directly related. At the same time,
in accordance with the subjective opinions of experts, the
integral indicator F is most influenced by the e1 - presence of
an environmental management system in the environmental
policy for compliance with international standards ISO 14001.
Among the set of social indicators, the most significant factor
affecting the stability of an electric power company is s2 - the
stability of material security. Therefore, given the production
rules of the logical-linguistic model of «Sustainability»
formulated by consultants, it is advisable to vary the variables
e1 and s2 to change the level of stability of the electric power
enterprise. As a consequence of the adaptability of the
«Sustainability» model, the membership functions of fuzzy
sets that make up linguistic variables, as well as the rules
of inference, can be easily adjusted in accordance with the
ongoing diversification of the company's activities.
Our approach to the construction of mathematical
models to support decision-making regarding the level
of sustainability of the development of electric energy
enterprises is distinguished by the possibility of using the
knowledge of professional specialists. The logical-linguistic
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 Z. F. Mamedov et al. / SOCAR Proceedings Special Issue No. 2 (2022) 013-025
models proposed in this article are able to operate with
qualitatively expressed characteristics describing various
scenarios of sustainable development of the company. The
advantage of the logical-linguistic approach to modeling
is, firstly, the possibility of resolving contradictions in the
decision-making process between economic, environmental
and social characteristics. Secondly, the positive aspect of the
proposed approach is the feasibility of taking into account
the uncertainty conditions caused by setting indicators of
sustainable development in real terms. Thirdly, the advantage
of the approach used is the feasibility of formally presenting
the subjective opinions of experts on the assessment of the
level of sustainable development using a set of inference rules
that implement the mapping of fuzzy sets of factor features
in the set of values of the integral indicator of sustainable
development. An equally strong side of the approach used
to modeling the assessment of sustainable development is
the adaptability of the constructed models to changes in
the operating conditions of enterprises and the associated
change in the possibility of transformation of the parameters
of the logical-linguistic model: the functions of fuzzy sets
and production rules of decision-making. The disadvantage
of the constructed logical-linguistic model is the lack of
the possibility of constructing formal dependencies that
allow ranking a variety of factor features according to the
degree of their influence on the effective feature. In order to
prevent this drawback, we proposed conducting a series of
experiments on the constructed logical-linguistic model with
the following mathematical-statistical processing of their
Models for determining the probability of bankruptcy
Name and formal
representation of the Variables
model
1 2
Five-factor model
X1 − working capital;
X2 − retained earnings;
Altman P = 1.3X1 + 1.4 X 2 + X3 − operating profit;
+3.3X3 + 0.6 X4 + 1.0 X5
X4 − market value of shares;
X5 − revenue.
X1 − working capital(assets);
Modified four-factor
X2 − retained earnings;
Altman model X3 − profit before tax;
P = 6.56 X1 + 3.26 X 2 +
X4 − own capital.
+6.72 X3 + 1.05X4
the continuation of table 1 on the next page
16
results. The obtained results of the correlation analysis allow
us to give a quantitative assessment of the degree of influence
of the input characteristics used on the integral indicator of
the level of sustainability of development.
This article proposes the formulation of the problem of
assessing the level of sustainability of the development of
electric power enterprises by a set of economic, environmental
and social indicators. To solve the problem, a mathematical
model based on the mathematical apparatus of fuzzy logic is
proposed. The constructed logical-linguistic model is able to
function in conditions of uncertainty caused by the qualitatively
expressed nature of the task of the output data, and can be
used to assess the level of stability of any industrial enterprise.
The formalization of the semantics of the qualitatively
expressed input information used in the mathematical model
is realized by constructing membership functions of odd sets.
The selection of membership functions is carried out by the
method of expert assessments in the process of interviewing
professional specialists in the field of sustainable development
assessment. Approximation of the dependence of the integral
indicator of sustainable development on a set of economic,
environmental and social indicators is carried out by a set
of inference rules set by experts, considered as a fuzzy basis
of knowledge. A series of experiments has been put on the
logical-linguistic model in order to further mathematically
and statistically process their results and assess the degree
of influence of qualitatively expressed initial characteristics
on the integral indicator of the level of sustainability of the
development of an electric power enterprise.
Table 1
Scenarios of economic insolvency
3
A qualitatively expressed
The value of the coefficient P measure of the probability
of bankruptcy
P < 1.8 Very high
P ∈ (2.7; 2.9) High
P ∈ (2.7; 2.9) Possible
P>3 Unlikely
P ≤ 1.1 High, unstable enterprise
P ∈ (1.81; 2.7) High
Instability, the probability
P ≥ 2.6 of bankruptcy is not
excluded
P ∈ (1.11; 2.6) Bankruptcy is unlikely;
the company is stable
 Z. F. Mamedov et al. / SOCAR Proceedings Special Issue No. 2 (2022) 013-025

the continuation of table 1

1 2
The model of J.
Conan and M. Golder
P = 16 X1 + 22 X 2 −87 X3 +
+10 X4 + 24 X5
The Taffler model
P = 0.53X1 + 0.13X 2 +
+0.18 X3 + 0.16 X4
The Fox Mode
P = 0.063X1 + 0.092 X 2 +
+0.057 X3 + 0.001X4
3
Bankruptcy is unlikely
X1 − the ratio of cash and
receivables to the
currency of the balance Uncertain zone; the
sheet; company is experiencing
P ∈ (4; 9) financial difficulties, but the
X2 − the ratio of equity and
long-term liabilities to situation can be corrected
the balance sheet
currency;
X3 − the ratio of loan
servicing costs to sales
revenue;
X4 − the ratio of labor costs High probability of
to net profit; P<4 bankruptcy
X5 − the ratio of profit
before interest and
taxes to borrowed
capital.
P > 0.3 The company is stable
X1 − profit before tax;
X2 − current assets;
High probability of
X3 − current liabilities; 0.2 bankruptcy
X4 − revenue.
High probability of
P < 0.37 bankruptcy
X1 − working capital;
X2 − profit from sales;
X3 − retained earnings; Low probability of
X4 − the book value of equity. P > 0.37 bankruptcy

Table 2
Results of expert evaluation of membership functions of fuzzy sets p1 − «very high»
and p2 − «high» probability of bankruptcy

Identification of the Values of the fuzzy set Values of a fuzzy set

consultant conducting p1 (very high level of insolvency) p2 (high)
the examination
0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5
1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1
2 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1
3 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1
4 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1
5 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1
6 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1
7 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1
8 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1
9 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1
10 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1
5 5 7 9 3 6 9
µ 0 1 0 1 1
10 10 10 10 10 10 10

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 Z. F. Mamedov et al. / SOCAR Proceedings Special Issue No. 2 (2022) 013-025

Table 3
Results of expert evaluation of membership functions of fuzzy sets p3 − «possible»
and p4 - «unlikely» probability of bankruptcy

Identification of the Values of a fuzzy set Values of a fuzzy set

consultant conducting p3 (possible) p4 (unlikely)
the examination 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5
1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1
2 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1
3 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1
4 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1
5 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1
6 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1
7 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1
8 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1
9 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1
10 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1

µ 6 9 7 3 6 9
0 1 1 0 1 1
10 10 10 10 10 10

1.2 1.2
Membership function Membership function
Consultant ratings 1 Consultant ratings
1

0.8 0.8

0.6 0.6

0.4 0.4

0.2 0.2

0 0
0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5
a) b)
Fig. 1. Graphs of membership functions of fuzzy sets of bankruptcy probabilities
a) p1(very high); b) p2(high)

1.2 1.2
Membership function Membership function
Consultant ratings Consultant ratings
1 1

0.8 0.8

0.6 0.6

0.4 0.4

0.2 0.2

0 0
0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5

Fig. 2. Graphs of membership functions of fuzzy sets of bankruptcy probabilities

a) p3 (possible); b) p4 (unlikely)

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 Z. F. Mamedov et al. / SOCAR Proceedings Special Issue No. 2 (2022) 013-025

Table 4
Analytical expressions of membership functions of fuzzy sets of the economic component of
sustainable development energy companies

Economic indicator of Qualitative Analytical expressions of membership functions of

sustainable development characteristics fuzzy sets

0, x ≤ 0;

 x , 0 < x < 4;
p1 - very high µ p1 =  4
1, 4 ≤ x < 5;

0, x ≥ 5

0, x ≤ 0;

 x , 0 < x < 3;
3
p2 - high 
µ p=
2 1, 3 ≤ x < 4;
4 − x
 , 4 < x < 5;
 5
0, x ≥ 5
P − economic component 
(probability of bankruptcy)
T ( P) =
< p1 , p2 , p 3 , p4 > 0, x ≤ 0;

 x , 0 < x < 2;
2

p3 - possible µ=
p3 1, 2 ≤ x < 3;
3 − x
 , 3 < x < 5;
 5
0, x ≥ 5

0, x ≤ 0;

1, 0 < x < 2;
p4 - unlikely µp4 = 2 − x
 , 2 ≤ x < 5;
 3
0, x ≥ 5

Table 5
Analytical expressions of membership functions of fuzzy sets of ecological components of
sustainable development energy companies

Environmental indicators of Qualitative Analytical expressions of membership functions of

sustainable development characteristics fuzzy sets

0, x ≥ 5;

1, 4 < x < 5;
Yes µ ei =  x
 , 0 ≤ x < 4;
4
0, x < 0
0, x ≤ 0;

E − environmental component  x , 0 < x < 2;
E = ( e1 , e2 , e 3 ) ; 2

T ( ei ) = {Yes , Partially , No}, i = 1.3 µ= 1, 2 ≤ x < 4;
Parttially ei
5 − x
 , 4 < x < 5;
 1
0, x ≥ 5

0, x ≤ 0;

1, 0 < x < 2;
No µ ei =  2 − x
 , 2 ≤ x < 5;
 3
0, x ≥ 5

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Table 6
Analytical expressions of membership functions of fuzzy sets of the social component
and the integral indicator of sustainable development of an energy enterprise

Social indicators of sustainable Qualitative Analytical expressions of membership functions of fuzzy

development characteristics sets
0, x ≥ 5;

1, 4 < x < 5;
µ si =  x
Yes
 , 0 ≤ x < 4;
4
0, x < 0
0, x ≤ 0;

 x , 0 < x < 2;
2
S − social component 
S = ( s1 , s2 , s3 , s4 ) Partiallys µ=
si 1, 2 ≤ x < 4;
T ( s j ) = {Yes , Partially , No}, j = 1, 4 5 − x
 , 4 < x < 5;
 1
0, x ≥ 5

0, x ≤ 0;

1, 0 < x < 2;
Nos µ si =  2 − x
 , 2 ≤ x < 5;
 3
0, x ≥ 5
0, x < 0;

 x
Low µ F =− , 0 ≤ x < 3;
 3
0, x > 3;

0, x < 0;

 x , 0 < x < 2;
F − integral stability indicator Middle µF =  2
T ( F ) = { Low , Middle , High} (2 − x), 2 ≤ x < 3;

0, x ≥ 3
0, x ≤ 0;

x
High µ=
F  , 2 ≤ x < 3;
3
0, x ≥ 3

Environmental
performance

Economic
characteristics SUSTAINBILITY

Social
characteristics

Fig. 3. Conceptual scheme of the mathematical

model «Sustainability»

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Fig. 4. Graphical form of functioning of the «Sustainability» model

Table 7
Results of experiments with the «Sustainability» model

Economic Environmental
Social indicators of sustainability Integral
indicator sustainability
S = ( s1 , s2 , s3 , s4 ) indicator
No. of sustainability indicators E = ( e1 , e2 , e 3 )
p.p.

P = ( p1 , p2 , p 3 , p 4 ) e1 e2 e3 s1 s2 s3 s4 F = Ψ ( P , E , S)

1 0 5 5 4.9 5 5 5 4.6 3
2 0.2 4.8 4 4.7 4.2 5 4.8 4.5 3
3 0.4 4 4 4.67 4 4.8 4.7 4.4 2.75
4 0.5 3.7 3.8 4.6 3.9 4.7 4.1 4.35 2
5 0.6 3 3.5 4.5 3.8 4.5 3.9 4.3 1.8
6 1.5 2.85 3 4 3.8 4 3.5 4 1.4
7 2 2.5 2.79 3.75 3.8 4 2.8 3.9 1.4
8 2.1 2.1 2.5 3.5 2.75 3.5 2.6 3.9 1.2
9 2.4 1.95 2.4 2.9 2.76 3.2 2 3.5 1.2
10 2.5 1.7 2 2.7 2.7 3 1.95 3 1.1
11 2.7 1.5 1.95 2 2 2.9 1.9 2.9 0.8
12 3 1 1.9 1.56 1.85 2.75 1.8 2.8 0.5
13 3.1 0.9 1 1.5 1.7 1.96 1.5 2.75 0.3
14 3.2 0.8 1 1.4 1.7 1.96 1 1 0.3
15 3.3 0.6 1 1.2 1.5 1.5 0.8 1 0.2
16 3.4 0.4 0.85 0.7 0.95 0.9 0.5 0.9 0.1
17 3.5 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.95 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.1
18 3.5 0 0.1 0.2 0.95 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.1

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a) b)

c) d)
Fig. 5. Graphs of dependencies of the integral indicator of the level of stability F from the following indicators
a) bankruptcy probability scenario P ; b), c), d) – environmental characteristics e1 , e2 , e 3

a) b)

d)

c)

Fig. 6. Graphs of dependencies of the integral indicator of the level of stability F from social indicators s1 , s2 , s3 , s4
(fragments (a)-(d))

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Table 8
Assessment of the tightness of the relationship between the independent variables P, E, S
and the dependent integral indicator F

No p.p Formal expressions for Pearson correlation coefficients Values of Pearson correlation coefficients
n n n

∑ ( P(i) − P)( F(i) − F ) ∑ P( i ) ∑ F(i )

1 rF / P = i =1
, P= i =1
, F= i =1
- 0.97
n
n n
∑ ( P( i ) − P ) ( F ( i ) − F )
i =1
2 2

n n
e1 e2 e3
∑ ( e (i) − e )( F(i) − F )
j j ∑ e (i) j
2 rF / еj = i =1
, ej = i =1
, j = 1.3
n n
∑ ( e j (i ) − e ) ( F(i ) − F )
i =1
2 2 0.98 0.95 0.93

n n
s1 s2 s3 s4
∑ (s (i) − s )( F(i) − F )
j j ∑ s (i) j

3 rF / sj = i =1
, sj = i =1
, j = 1.4
n n
∑ ( s ( i ) − s) ( F ( i ) − F )
i =1
j
2 2 0.94 0.91 0.97 0.86

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Оценка потенциала устойчивого развития предприятий электроэнергетики:

подходы, модели, технологии

З. Ф. Мамедов1, С. Х. Гурбанов1, E. Д. Стрельцова2, А. И. Бородин3,

И. Яковенко2, А. А. Алиев3
Азербайджанский государственный экономический университет, Баку, Азербайджан;
1

2
Южно-Российский государственный политехнический университет (НПИ) имени М.И. Платова,
Новочеркасск, Россия; 3Российский экономический университет имени Г. В. Плеханова, Москва,
Россия

Реферат

В данной статье ставится и решается задача построения модельного инструментария оценки

уровня устойчивого развития предприятий электроэнергетики. Предложены показатели, характе-
ризующие состояние предприятия по экономическим, экологическим и социальным характеристи-
кам. В экономическом аспекте предлагается акцентировать внимание на такой угрозе устойчивого
экономического развития, как экономическая несостоятельность. В процессе моделирования эконо-
мической несостоятельности используются сценарии пятифакторной модели Альтмана. Для разре-
шения противоречий между экономическим развитием, рациональным использованием ресурсов
и негативным воздействием на окружающую среду, в статье предлагается логико-лингвистическая
модель, позволяющая для разрешения этого конфликта.

Ключевые слова: устойчивое развитие; предприятия электроэнергетики; математическое моде-

лирование; логико-лингвистический подход.

Elektrik enerjisi müəssisələrinin davamlı inkişafı potensialının qiymətləndirilməsi:

yanaşmalar, modellər, texnologiyalar

Z. F. Mamedov1, S. H. Qurbanov1, E. D. Streltsova2, А.I. Borodin3,

I. Yakovenko2, А.А. Аliev3
1
Azərbaycan Dövlət İqtisad Universiteti (UNEC), Bakı, Azərbaycan;
2
M. İ. Platov adına Rusiya Dövlət Politexnik Universiteti (NPI), Novocherkassk, Rusiya;
3
Plexanov adına Rusiya İqtisadiyyat Universiteti, Moskva, Rusiya

Xülasə

Məqalədə elektrik enerjisi müəssisələrinin dayanıqlı inkişaf səviyyəsinin qiymətləndirilməsi üçün

model alətlər toplusunun yaradılması vəzifəsi qoyulmuş və həll edilmişdir. Müəssisənin vəziyyətini
iqtisadi, ekoloji və sosial xüsusiyyətləri ilə xarakterizə edən bir sıra göstəricilər təklif olunur. Məqalədə
dayanıqlı iqtisadi inkişaf çərçivəsində müflisləşmə (iflas) təhlükələri izah olunur. Altman, J. Konan, M.
Qolder, Fox və Taffler modelləri də daxil olmaqla, iflas riskinin proqnozlaşdırılması üçün bir sıra modellər
nəzərdən keçirilir. İqtisadi müflisləşmənin modelləşdirilməsi prosesində beş faktorlu Altman modelinin
ssenarilərindən istifadə olunur. Elektrik enerjisi müəssisəsinin davamlı inkişafının funksionallığının həyata
keçirilməsi iqtisadi inkişaf, resurslardan səmərəli istifadə və ətraf mühitə mənfi təsir arasında ziddiyyətlərin
həlli ilə əlaqəli olduğuna görə məqalədə məntiqi və linqvistik bir model təklif olunur.

Açar sözlər: davamli inkişaf; elektrik enerjisi müəssisələri; riyazi modelləşdirmə; məntiqi-linqvistik
yanaşma.

25