Ecological Indicators 132 (2021) 108248

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Ecological Indicators
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolind

Study on the relationship among the urbanization process, ecosystem

services and human well-being in an arid region in the context of carbon
flow: Taking the Manas river basin as an example
Ranran Liu a, b, Xiaobin Dong a, b, *, Xue-chao Wang a, b, Peng Zhang a, b, Mengxue Liu a, b,
Ying Zhang a, b
a
State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875,China
b
School of Natural Resources Science and Technology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: The complex interaction among urban socioeconomic development, ecosystem services and human well-being is
Carbon related to the level of regional sustainable development, which is an important cross scientific issue in the study
Urbanization of natural ecosystems and the social economy and is also an important subject in the study of the “future Earth”.
Ecosystem services
This research quantitatively evaluated the level and the spatial and temporal dynamic characteristics of ur-
Human well-being
banization, ecosystem services and human well-being in Manas River Basin with carbon elements as the carrier.
High quality development
Then the complex relationships and action mechanisms among the three was revealed by using an approach
comprising constraint lines, the urban development benefit index and a correlation analysis. The results showed
that urbanization and all its dimensions increased to varying degrees from 2000 to 2015. For the ecosystem
services, except for provision services, the other ecosystem services showed a fluctuating downward trend,
affected by which human ecological well-being also showed the same trend, while social well-being, economic
well-being and total human well-being showed exponential growth. Spatially, in addition to the provision ser-
vices, the distribution of the other ecosystem services had an obvious spatial differentiation with urbanization.
And broadly, the distribution trend showed that the farther away from the city centre an area was, the higher the
services level. The constraint line analysis showed that each dimension of urbanization had a significant
constraint on the ecosystem services, and the constraint relationship showed the hump type, logarithmic type,
and negative line type, which indicated that the potential maximum value of the basin ecosystem services
decreased with the improvement of urbanization level. Meanwhile, the extensive urban development made the
benefit of urban development of the river basin decline. The correlation analysis showed that human well-being
was more affected by urbanization than ecosystem services, especially economic urbanization and land urban-
ization, which remarkably improved human well-being. However, in the long run, the decline of ecological well-
being caused by urbanization will affect the growth potential of human well-being. This study provides a
theoretical support and suggestions for the formulation of urban development strategies and the realization of
low-carbon and high-quality development for the basin.

1. Introduction urbanization markedly promotes economic, cultural and social devel-

Urbanization is an inevitable trend of social and economic devel-
opment. In recent decades, global urbanization has achieved rapid
development and has become one of the most important components of
global changes (Vitousek et al., 2008; Yu et al., 2009). Urbanization is a
complex process involving population migration, land cover change,
urban agglomeration, economic scale and other issues. In this process,
opment and is an important way to improve human well-being. But at
the same time, human activities have gradually changed the landscape
structure and natural processes, changed and profoundly affected the
interaction among the atmosphere, hydrosphere and biosphere (Poly-
doros and Cartalis, 2015), and then affected the exchange of carbon,
water and energy between the land surface and the atmosphere. Ur-
banization has profoundly changed the key ecological processes of

* Corresponding author.
E-mail address: xbdong@bnu.edu.cn (X. Dong).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.108248
Received 18 June 2021; Received in revised form 1 September 2021; Accepted 27 September 2021
Available online 4 October 2021
1470-160X/© 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
R. Liu et al.
terrestrial ecosystems and has had a significant impact on the global
carbon cycle (Defries et al., 1999;Trenberth et al., 2007). On the one
hand, the expansion of urban land will transform woodland, grassland
and cultivated land with strong carbon sink capacity into construction
land, resulting in an increase in carbon sources and a decrease in carbon
sinks, which not only reduces the carbon sequestration potential of
vegetation and soil but also poses a threat to natural resources and food
security (Nizeyimana et al., 2001; Shochat et al., 2006; Grimm et al.,
2008). On the other hand, the development of cities consumes many
fossil fuels to meet the growth needs of industrial production and peo-
ple’s lives, resulting in a large number of greenhouse gases entering the
atmosphere (Wise et al., 2010). It was estimated that approximately
97% of the anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions come from urban
areas (Svirejeva-Hopkins et al., 2004). While, carbon emissions have
long-term adverse effects on residents’ health. By increasing the tem-
perature, 1% increase in carbon emissions can increase the number of
outpatients by 0.298% (Dong et al., 2021). Therefore, urbanization has
greatly changed the composition, structure and function of the
ecosystem through the change of land use and the consumption process
of energy and resources by urban development and further affected the
health status of the ecosystem and human beings; this has resulted in
serious ecosystem degradation and the degradation of many ecosystem
services on which human beings depend (Holt et al., 2015; Chen et al.,
2016) and has threatened the sustainable attainment of human well-
being.
Human well-being is not only closely related to urban development,
but also highly dependent on ecosystem services. Natural ecosystem
provides materials and services for human survival and development,
including provision, regulating, support and cultural services. Since the
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) proposed in 2005 the rela-
tionship between ecosystem services and human well-being on a global
scale (MA, 2005), the research on ecosystem services and human well-
being has attracted increasing attention from scholars (Costanza et al.,
2007; Santos-Martin et al., 2013; Bennett et al., 2015; Horcea-Milcu
et al., 2016). The discussion of the relationship between the two has
become an important scientific issue in the field of the “ecology-econ-
omy” (Howe et al. 2014). As it involves multiple disciplines, ecosystem
services and human well-being are diverse, multilevel, and scale-
dependent, and there are nonlinear and complex relationships, such as
one-to-many and many-to-many relationships (Quintas-Soriano et al.,
2016; Probstl-Haider, 2015). The relationship will also change due to
the different perspectives of stakeholders, the differences in the speci-
ficity of the research area, and the differences in spatial and temporal
scales (Duraiappah, 2011; Raudsepp-Hearme et al. 2010). Land use
change, economic development, policy change, population growth, ed-
ucation level and other factors are considered to be the important factors
driving the spatiotemporal relationship between ecosystem services and
human well-being (Xu et al., 2016, 2019; Wang et al., 2017). While these
factors are closely related to urbanization.
A large number of studies have shown that urbanization was one of
the main driving forces that changed the ecosystem services (García-
Nieto et al., 2018; Li et al., 2016a). Other studies have shown that the
intensity of the effect of urbanization on ecosystem services was related
to the distance from the city centre and the level of urbanization. The
closer to the city centre and the more developed the city was, the more
significant the response of the ecosystem services (Su et al., 2014; Li
et al., 2016b), and there was a threshold for the response of ecosystem
services to population and economic urbanization (Peng et al., 2017).
Studies at home and abroad have explored the interaction and coupling
relationship between urbanization and ecosystem services at the system
level and the subsystem level at a variety of spatial scales, such as a
country, region, urban agglomeration and city scale, and proved that the
relationship between urbanization and ecosystem services was not a
simple one-to-one correspondence but a variety of relationships (Li
et al., 2016b). In the process of rapid urbanization, the expansion of
construction land turns natural and semi-natural ecosystems into
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Ecological Indicators 132 (2021) 108248
impervious surfaces, leading to a sharp decrease in the supply of
ecosystem services. Most studies have shown that urbanization has a
negative impact on ecosystem services (Faulkner, 2004; su et al., 2014;
Zhang et al,2017). However, as the relationship between urbanization
and ecosystem services may be affected by the offsetting effect of the
increase in the size of other high-service ecosystems, such as forests,
grasslands, and waters, in nonurban areas (Zhou et al., 2018) and is
highly dependent on the environmental background of the study area
(Buyantuyev and Wu, 2009), urbanization may promote ecosystem
services (Buyantuyev and Wu, 2009; Zhou et al., 2018) and may also
demonstrate a nonlinear relationship represented by an “inverted U-
shape” (Li et al., 2010; Wan et al., 2015).
It can be seen that the relationship among urbanization, ecosystem
services and human well-being is very complex, and the social and
ecological effects caused by urbanization vary with the background of
the urban environment and the development stage. When the city de-
velops to a certain extent, the “quality effect” and “scale economy” of the
city will have a positive impact on the ecosystem (Yuan et al., 2020).
Therefore, the social and ecological effects of urbanization are not
generalizable, and it may be wrong to extend the results to other cities.
To provide a scientific basis for formulating reasonable urban planning
and ecosystem management measures, it is necessary to detect the
relationship among urbanization, ecosystem services and human well-
being in a specific research area.
At present, the research on urbanization, ecosystem services, human
well-being and the relationship among them has a certain research basis,
but there are still many gaps in the research on the mechanism, the
interaction process and the important links between the three aspects.
The interaction process of the three is related to the sustainable devel-
opment of arid areas, which is not only an important part of global
sustainable development but also one of the important constraints to the
realization of sustainable development goals at the international and
national levels (Zhou, 2004). However, the complex relationship be-
tween the three still lacks a specific research perspective or research
carrier, and there is an urgent need for an effective research carrier to
connect the three organically. In recent years, some scholars have in-
tegrated the conceptual framework of social ecology to analyse the flow,
storage, production, consumption, and circulation of elements and their
environmental impact (Metson et al, 2015; Chen and Graedel, 2016);
these scholars found that the analysis from the perspective of element
flow focused on the process of system change, facilitated the unification
of the dimensions, and helped to integrate the natural ecosystem with
the social economic system. Carbon is the basic element that constitutes
all organic matter, and the carbon cycle is the most important part of the
biogeochemical cycle (Piao et al., 2009; Song, 2010). The carbon
emission process of urbanization, the carbon sequestration process of
ecosystem services, and the carbon storage process of human well-being
are key links in the carbon cycle and profoundly affect the flow of carbon
elements between natural and social economic systems. Therefore, using
carbon as a medium can realize the effective integration of the urbani-
zation process, ecosystem services, and human well-being.
The Manas River Basin (MRB) is located in the northwest inland arid
area and has an important strategic position in the economic belt of the
northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains. It is the economic growth
pole of the fragile ecological environment area. The interaction between
ecology and economy in the MRB is relatively strong, and the process of
carbon flow is more complex and diverse. In the context of the carbon
flow between natural ecosystems and socioeconomic systems, taking the
MRB as the research area is beneficial to carry out research on the
complex relationship between the urbanization process, ecosystem ser-
vices and human well-being in arid areas. The MRB is a representative
locale for the study of urban development in arid and fragile areas.
During 2000–2015, the MRB experienced large-scale soil and water
development. The natural ecosystem was strongly disturbed. The change
in land use and cover and the increase in the intensity of economic
productive activities have greatly changed the carbon cycle of the basin.
R. Liu et al.
A large amount of carbon flowed from the natural ecosystem to the
social and economic system, and a large amount of CO2 was emitted into
the atmosphere. In this process, there are many questions that can be
asked. What is the level and quality of the urban development? Are
ecosystem services declining? What changes have taken place in human
well-being? How do the three interact? What is the future sustainable
and high-quality development path for the basin? All these problems
needs further study.
Therefore, based on previous studies and under the global economic
development trend of low-carbon and green growth, China’s “carbon
neutral” goal orientation, and new urbanization construction in China,
the new demand for high-quality development, this paper constructed a
carbon quantitative assessment framework for the status and relation-
ship among urbanization, ecosystem services and human well-being.
Considering the contribution of the three factors in the main links of
the carbon cycle, carbon emissions were used to represent the process of
urbanization, carbon sequestration was used to represent the ecosystem
services, and carbon storage was used to represent human well-being.
Studies have shown that biomass is positively related to ecosystem
services and human well-being (Xie et al., 2017; Carreno et al., 2012).
The greater the amount of carbon stored in natural ecosystems and
human welfare systems is, the higher the service capacity and well-being
level. Research has revealed that there is an inverted U-shaped rela-
tionship between carbon emission and the degree of urban development
Fig. 1. Geographical location (a), administrative division (b), and land use maps in 2000 (c) and 2015 (d) of the MRB.
3
Ecological Indicators 132 (2021) 108248
(Xu and Lin, 2015). China’s underdeveloped areas are still in the stage of
accelerating carbon emissions in the process of urbanization (Yuan and
Sun, 2020), and carbon emissions are positively correlated with eco-
nomic development (Sun et al., 2020). In the study period, the MBR was
basically in the early and middle stages of urban development and had
not reached the inflection point; therefore, carbon emissions can
represent the level of urbanization to a certain extent. Through the
change trend and degree of the carbon content of each index in the flow
process of the carbon element among the three systems, to a certain
extent, it can characterize the change and state level of each system
under the interaction, and then take carbon as the dimension to clearly
reveal the complex interaction relationship among the three. It helps to
reveal the significance of carbon emission reduction from the perspec-
tive of maintaining ecosystem services, comprehensively improving
human well-being and realizing sustainable and high-quality develop-
ment of the basin.
2. Study area
The MRB is located in the northwestern part of the Xinjiang Uygur
Autonomous Region in the arid region of northwest China, where the
economy is less developed, and on the southern edge of the Junggar
Basin at the northern foot of the Tianshan Mountains. The geographical
position is 85◦ 01′ -86◦ 32′ E, 43◦ 27′ -45◦ 21′ N. It has a typical continental
R. Liu et al.
climate, with drought, little rain, large evaporation and uneven seasonal
distribution. Administratively, it includes the Shihezi Reclamation Area,
Manas County, Shawan County and the Xinhu Farm of the Sixth Agri-
cultural Division. The total area is approximately 24,300 km2. It has a
typical mountain basin system structure, containing deserts, oases, low
hills and mountains from north to south, with an obvious vertical dis-
tribution (Fig. 1). There are significant regional differences in geology,
climate, soil and biological communities. At the same time, the MRB is
located in the core area of the economic development zone on the
northern slope of the Tianshan Mountain. Although the urban devel-
opment of the MRB is relatively backward, it plays a leading role in the
economic development of northern Xinjiang. From the upper mountain
to the lower desert area, there are significant differences in population,
economy and society. The central plain area is the largest oasis farming
area in Xinjiang and the fourth largest irrigation area in China. It is also
the economic and industrial centre of the basin. The Shihezi urban area,
the Shawan County urban area and the Manas County urban area are all
distributed here. Oasis development and economic development in the
MRB was conducted according to the model of the Xinjiang Uygur
Autonomous Region (Cheng et al., 2005). After the reform and opening
up, with the development of the economy, the increase in population
and the development of land resources, many natural vegetation areas in
the basin changed into artificial oases, the carrying capacity of resources
and the environment weakened, and the stability of the ecosystem in the
basin was also under serious threat (Li et al, 2008). The problems of soil
erosion, soil salinization, drought and flood disasters and the serious
decline in groundwater level needed to be effectively solved. Therefore,
as a representative arid area, by studying the ecological and socioeco-
nomic effects caused by the process of urban development and con-
struction in the basin, we can further understand the interaction process
of the internal ecosystems of the basin, clarify the basin’s operational
state, and provide a practical reference and decision-making basis for
the development strategies of the arid basin.
3. Data sources
The population, agriculture, and socioeconomic data come from the
2001–2016 Shihezi Statistical Yearbook, the Shawan County Historical
Data Collection, the Manas County Social and Economic Statistics Data
Collection, and the Xinjiang Statistical Yearbook. The meteorological
data, such as annual average temperature, annual precipitation, and
annual sunshine hours, come from the National Meteorological
Administration (http://data.cma.cn) and local meteorological bureaus.
Fig. 2. Quantitative assessment framework of “Urbanization-Ecosystem Services-Human Well-being” in the basin.
4
Ecological Indicators 132 (2021) 108248
The soil attribute data come from the Soil Survey Office of the Xinjiang
Uygur Autonomous Region. The 30 mDEM data, slope data and night
light index data come from the Resource and Environmental Science
Data Center of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (http://www.resdc.cn).
The township vector illustration of the river basin comes from the MRB
Administration. The Net primary productivity of vegetation (NPP) and
land use data are from Liu et al. (2019). The model calculation param-
eters are shown in TableA.1.
4. Research methods
4.1. Research framework
To explore the development level and state of urbanization,
ecosystem services and human well-being in the basin from 2000 to
2015, to clarify the interaction process, and to reveal the complex in-
ternal relationship among the three aspects, we constructed a quanti-
tative evaluation framework for “urbanization-ecosystem services-
human well-being” (Fig. 2). The framework consisted of three main
bodies, each of which is a complex system with several subsystems: the
urbanization system (population urbanization(PU), economic urbani-
zation(EU), social urbanization(SU) and land urbanization(LU)); the
ecosystem service system (provision services(PS), support services(SS),
regulating services(RS) and cultural services(CS)); and human well-
being (social well-being(SociW), economic well-being(EconW) and
ecological well-being(EcolW)). The three systems affect each other
through the complex interaction of linear and nonlinear, one-to-many,
and many-to-one relationships between subsystems of different di-
mensions. The quantitative evaluation of the three systems was based on
carbon elements, mainly because the three systems are key links in the
carbon cycle and are closely related to the carbon elements. On this
basis, the relationship among the three systems, that is, the constraints
of urbanization on ecosystem services, the benefits of urban develop-
ment from the perspective of human well-being, and the correlation
among the three systems, was explored.
4.2. Urbanization assessment based on carbon emission
Urbanization refers to the process of the concentration of the rural
population and non-agricultural production factors in cities and the
transformation of rural areas to urban areas. It includes population
migration and the resulting changes in the social structure, the flow of
non-agricultural production factors and the transition of industries, as
R. Liu et al. Ecological Indicators 132 (2021) 108248

well as the evolution of the urban landscape (Liu and Song, 2005).
Specifically, it can be divided into four dimensions: population urbani-
zation, economic urbanization, land urbanization, and social urbaniza-
tion. Population urbanization is the foundation of urbanization
development. The concentration of the population in cities adds vitality
and impetus to urban development. Economic urbanization is the core
content and the engine of urbanization development. Social urbaniza-
tion reflects the spread of civilization and the improvement of people’s
living standards and is the goal of urbanization. Land urbanization is the
spatial carrier of urbanization, and the expansion of construction land
and the level of infrastructure construction can directly reflect the level
of urbanization development. The evaluation of urbanization based on
carbon emissions needs to consider that the selected indicators should be
representative of the development level of the dimension and can be
quantified by the amount of carbon. Based on the above two points, we
select the non-agricultural population’s breathing-related carbon emis-
sions, secondary industry GDP carbon emissions, construction land
carbon emissions and the residents’ living electricity consumption car-
bon emissions to represent the urbanization of the population, economy,
land and society, respectively. Each index is calculated by the product of
the quantity and the corresponding carbon emission coefficient. Total
carbon emissions mainly include energy carbon emissions and breathing
carbon emissions. Because the production and living activities related to
energy consumption in the process of urbanization are mainly
completed on construction land, the value of total carbon emissions is
expressed by the sum of the breathing carbon emissions of the non-
agricultural population and the construction land carbon emissions
(Table 1).
4.3. Assessment of ecosystem services based on carbon sequestration
The MA divides ecosystem services into four services: provision,
support, regulating, and culture. A total of six important ecosystem
services in the basin were selected and include the following: provision
services (main agricultural products, livestock products and wood);
regulating services (climate regulation, hydrological regulation);
support services (soil conservation, habitat provision); and cultural
services (natural landscape recreation). The calculation of provision
services was based on the product of the output of each agricultural
product and the corresponding carbon content coefficient. Other ser-
vices were based on the product of the fixed carbon quantity of the
vegetation in forestlands, grasslands and the deserts of natural ecosys-
tems and the correction factors of temperature, precipitation, altitude,
slope and other geographical factors, as well as the stability coefficient
of ecosystem services (TableA.2). The calculation method refers to
Carreno et al. (2012). The quantification of the total service was the sum
of each service (Table 2). According to previous studies, ecosystem
services are directly related to NPP (Laurance, 2008; Nepstad et al.,
2008), and NPP can be regarded as the flow of biomass stocks that
generate ecosystem services (Carreno et al., 2012). In this paper, based
on NPP data, vegetation carbon sequestration was estimated. Since the
quantification of urbanization was based on round fielding and town-
ships, to unify the research scale, the calculation results of the ecosystem
services at the grid scale were expressed spatially on the same scale.
4.4. Assessment of human well-being based on carbon storage
Human well-being refers to the activities and conditions that people
consider valuable, including the basic material conditions required to
maintain a high-quality life, health, good social relations, safety, and
freedom of choice and action (MA). Human well-being is jointly affected
by ecosystem services and urban development. Both ecosystem services
and urban development are closely related to the quality of the
ecological environment. With the development of the social economy,
the ecological environment has had an increasingly significant impact
on human well-being. Therefore, on the basis of the MA well-being
framework, measurement indicators for the quality of the human
living environment were added. Thus, ecosystem service indicators
closely related to human survival and development were included in the
human well-being indicator evaluation system (Xu et al., 2019). Human
well-being was divided into three dimensions: social well-being (health
and safety), economic well-being (material security, production and

Table 1
Quantitative table of urbanization.
Urbanization Index Computing Selection criteria
method

Population Carbon emissions from the respiration of non- NAPi*Ccr Reflect the number of urban carrying population.
urbanization agricultural population (Cr)
Economic Carbon emissions of industrial GDP (Ci) (I-GDPi)*Cci There is a strong correlation between the development level of industry and
urbanization urban.
Land urbanization Carbon emissions from construction land (Cc) Csi + Cti + Cli The increase of construction land area is an intuitive manifestation of urban
land expansion.
Social urbanization Carbon emissions of household electricity (Ce) Pcei Reflect the consumption level of the citizens, the vitality of social activities and
the degree of social prosperity.
Urbanization Total carbon emissions Cr + Cc —

Note:
NAPi: Non-agricultural population of the ith township or round field.
Ccr: Carbon emission coefficient of respiration per capita.
I-GDPi: The industrial GDP of the ith township or round field.
Cci: Carbon emission coefficient of the industrial GDP = Carbon emission of the industrial enterprises in the MRB/ industrial GDP added value in the MRB.
Csi: Carbon emissions of the secondary industry GDP of the ith township or round field = Carbon emissions of the secondary industry GDP in the MRB/ GDP added
value of the secondary industry in the MRB.
Cti: Carbon emissions of the tertiary industry GDP of the ith township or round field = Carbon emissions of the tertiary industry GDP in the MRB/ GDP added value of
the tertiary industry in the MRB.
Cli: Carbon emissions of residents living in the ith township or round field = Total population of the ith township or round field*Carbon emissions of residents living per
capita (Cpl).
Cpl = Carbon emissions of residents living in the basin/ Total population of the basin.
Pcei: The proportion of each township or round field of the total carbon emissions of electricity consumption in its superior administrative region.
Pcei= (The population share of the ith township or round field*0.3 + the GDP share of the ith township or round field*0.3 + the night light index share of the ith
township or round field*0.4)* total carbon emission of electricity consumption in the superior administrative region of the ith township or round field.
The carbon emissions of the industrial enterprises, the secondary industry GDP, the tertiary industry GDP, and from the residents’ living and electricity consumption
are determined by the product of the various consumed energies and the carbon emission coefficient of each energy source. The specific calculation method and the
coefficient refer to the IPCC carbon emission guidelines (IPCC, 2006).

5
R. Liu et al. Ecological Indicators 132 (2021) 108248

Table 2 factors may affect the two variables. Furthermore, the relationship be-
Quantitative table of ecosystem services. tween the two variables often presents distribution characteristics
Ecosystem Index Computing method Selection criteria similar to those of scatter clouds. When the scatter cloud contains in-
services formation edges, it is called a constraint line (Blackburn et al., 1992;
Provision Provision of Output of the ith Main agricultural Thomson et al., 1996). The reason for this phenomenon is that limiting
services agricultural agricultural product* the products in the variables cannot completely control the change in the response variables
products carbon content rate of basin. but restrict the response variables so that the distribution of response
the ith agricultural variables cannot exceed a certain range (Thomson et al., 1996). The
product
Regulating Climate B*FLIN*FPRE*FTEM*(1- Climate regulation
constraint line represents the distribution range or potential maximum
services regulation VCB) is very important value of the response variable under the influence of constraint factors
and necessary for (Webb, 1972; Mills et al., 2006). Compared with most traditional
arid areas. methods, constraint lines can better describe the influence process of
Hydrologic B*(1-FSLO)*FPRE*FSIC*(1- Water is the
main constraint factors on response variables in complex systems with
regulation VCB) lifeblood of the
development of arid multiple influencing factors (Jansen et al., 2007). A point on the
areas, and constraint line indicates that the response variable is constrained by the
hydrological limiting factor and has less or almost no limitation by any other factors
regulation (Evanylo and Sumner, 1987; Mills et al., 2009). The constraint line
maintains many
important
method provides an effective method for extracting the boundary of the
ecological scattered point cloud, understanding the effect of the limiting variable
functions. on the response variable, and for predicting the potential maximum
Support Soil B*(1-FSLO)*(1-FPRE)*(1- The water and soil value of the response variable. This paper took the township or round
services conservation VCB) loss in the upper
field as the research unit, used the carbon emissions per unit area and
reaches of the MRB
is serious. the carbon fixation per unit area to represent the level of urbanization
Habitat B*(1-FALT)*FPRE*FTEM* MRB is a key area and ecosystem services, respectively, and explored the process and in-
provision (1-VCB) for biodiversity tensity of the constraints of urbanization on ecosystem services.
protection in China.
The ecosystem types
(2) Urban development benefit index (UDBI)
in the basin are
diverse, which can
provide living space To calculate the contribution of urban development to the well-being
for a variety of of a particular year, this paper recalculated the newly added human
organisms.
well-being that year and then calculated the increases in the well-being
Cultural Natural Sum of the NPP of the The daily leisure
Services landscape forest land, garden and areas of local carbon storage per unit of carbon emissions of urbanization. Since it is
recreation green land* Carbon residents are mainly impossible to accurately quantify the impact of urbanization on
conversion coefficient of the garden green ecosystem services, the changes in well-being caused by the impact of
NPP(Ccc-NPP) space in the oasis urbanization on ecosystem services will not be considered. At the same
and the spruce
time, some studies showed that the carbon emission performance effect
forest in the upper
reaches of the basin. of economic development was the decisive factor of the total effect of
Total Total carbon Sum of all the services — carbon emission performance and that the carbon emission performance
ecosystem sequestration effect of human well-being was the combination of the carbon emission
services
performance effect of economic development and the economic per-
Note: B represents the carbon content in organic matter; this content was formance effect of human well-being (Wang et al., 2014). Therefore, to
calculated by the product of the NPP data of different land types and the cor- eliminate the well-being provided by provision services, this paper only
responding carbon conversion coefficient of NPP. FLIN, FPRE, FTEM, FSLO,FALT calculated the economic well-being and social well-being directly
represent the correction coefficients of the annual sunshine hours, annual pre- related to urban development and newly added that year. Through the
cipitation, annual average tempera -ture, slope and altitude, respectively, which calculation of the urban development benefit index of Shihezi City,
are calculated by spatial interpolation using the data of meteorological stations
Shawan County, Manas County and the whole basin, this paper revealed
in the basin. FSIC represents the infiltration capacity of different land types. VCB
the urban development status and provided a reference for formulating
stands for biomass stability, which refers to the time within a year when an
ecosystem type can effectively provide ecosystem services. In this study area, the urban carbon emission reduction targets and development strategies in
cultivated land biomass is unstable, the effective service time in a year is only the future.
approximately 6 months, and the VCB value is 0.5. The grasslands, woodlands Ui
and desert are less unstable; therefore, they are not considered temporarily. Ci =
Wi

development) and ecological well-being (high-quality environment,
ecological security). Combined with the natural and social background
of the study area, the key objective well-being indicators that can reveal
the level of local well-being were selected for carbonization. Total well-
being was also calculated as the sum of the various well-being values
(Table 3). The calculation method refers to that in (Xu et al., 2019).
Ui represents the urbanization carbon emissions of the ith city, and Wi
represents the newly added carbon stocks that year of the ith city’s well-
being, in addition to the increased well-being provided by the provision
services.
5. Results

5.1. Changes in urbanization, ecosystem services and human well-being

4.5. Assessment methods of the relationships
(1) Constraint line method
In a complex ecological process, in addition to the effects caused by
the interaction between the two variables, effects caused by many other
5.1.1. Spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of urbanization carbon
emissions
After 15 years of economic construction, remarkable achievements
were made in the development of the cities. Fig. 3(a,d). shows that all

6
R. Liu et al. Ecological Indicators 132 (2021) 108248

Table 3
Quantitative table of human well-being.
Human well- Index Computing method Selection criteria
being
∑
Social well- Healthy Provision of meat, eggs, i Qi ∗ Rcai Reflect the level of human physical health.
being milk and aquatic products
∑
Provision of books, j Qj ∗ Rcp Reflect the level of human mental health.
newspapers and
magazines
Security Housing security PU ∗ AHP ∗ UBTP ∗ DW ∗ CW + ATH ∗ Reflect the level of residents’ housing security.
UDTP *DW ∗ RW
Medical security NHB ∗ AAP ∗ UBTP ∗ DW ∗ CW + NHB ∗ Reflect the life safety guarantee level of residents.
AAP ∗ UDTP *DW ∗ RW
∑
Economic well- Materialguarantee Provision of agricultural k Qk ∗ Rck Industrial and agricultural products are the basis for
being products ensuring human normal life and production activities.
∑
Provision of industrial h Qh ∗ Rch
products
Production and Provision of fertilizer and CNF ∗ RCN + CCF ∗ RCC + CF ∗ RCAF Chemical fertilizer and feed, energy and road traffic are
development feed important production factors for the economic development
∑
Energy provision X QX ∗ RCX of the basin.
Road accessibility AUR ∗ RT ∗ DC ∗ RCCe

Ecological well- Quality environment Natural landscape Same as corresponding ecosystem The beautiful ecological environment and sufficient
being recreation services sightseeing sites are conducive to the physical and mental
health of the residents.
Suitable climate An appropriate climate is an important human well-being in
arid areas.
Suitable habitat Habitat diversity provides living space for many species, and
biodiversity plays a positive role in human well-being (
Hossain et al. 2016).
Ecological security Free from soil erosion Soil erosion and drought and flood are the main natural
Free from drought and disasters in the basin.
flood
Total human — — The sum of all the human well-being —
well- being values

Note:
Qi: Output of the ith agricultural product;
i represents meat, eggs, milk and aquatic products.
Rcai: Carbon content rate of the i-th agricultural product.
Qj:The number of the jth reading material.
j represents books, newspapers and magazines.
Rcp: Average carbon content of paper products.
Pu: Urban population.
AHP: Housing building area per capita.
UBTP: Building timber usage per unit of building area.
DW: Density of wood products.
RW: Carbon content of wood products.
ATH: Total housing building area.
UDTP: Decoration timber usage per unit of building area.
NHB: Number of hospital beds.
AAP: Average area per bed.
Qk: Output of the kth agricultural product;
k represents grain, vegetables, cotton and oil.
Rck: Carbon content rate of the kth agricultural product.
Qh: Output of the hth industrial product;
h represents cement, calcium carbide, PVC resin, raw coal, books and furniture
Rch: Carbon content rate of the hth industrial product.
CNF: Nitrogenous fertilizer consumption.
CCF: Compound fertilizer consumption.
RCN: Carbon content rate of nitrogenous fertilizer.
RCC: Carbon content rate of compound fertilizer.
CF: Feed consumption.
RCAF: Average feed carbon content rate.
QX: Output of the xth energy fuel;
x represents coal, gas, oil.
RCX: Carbon content rate of the xth energy fuel.
AUR: Urban road area.
RT: Road thickness(0.2 m).
DC: Cement density(2.4 t/m3).
RCCe: Carbon content rate of cement.

7
R. Liu et al.
Fig. 3. Changes in the carbon quantity of the basin from 2000 to 2015.
levels of urbanization achieved steady growth. In 2015, the urbanization
carbon emissions of the economy, land, population and society reached
27.78, 11.58, 1.59 and 6.44 times those of 2000, respectively. The
process of population urbanization was relatively smooth, and the
growth rate of economic urbanization was significant. The urbanization
carbon emissions of the whole basin grew by 10.34 times. From a spatial
distribution perspective (Fig. 4), the carbon emissions of urbanization
demonstrated the distribution law of decreasing outward, with the main
urban area of the city and county as the centre, especially Shihezi urban
district, which has the highest carbon emission, accounting for
approximately half of the whole basin and is the political and cultural
centre of the basin. As the carrier of economic development, land has a
close relationship with economic urbanization. And the two are the
important content and support of urbanization, the spatial layout of the
economic urbanization, land urbanization and total urbanization has a
strong consistency. The spatial distribution of population urbanization is
different from that of economic urbanization and land urbanization,
indicating that population agglomeration and economic agglomeration
are not synchronous in some areas. Compared with 2000, in 2015, all
township or round fields improved to varying degrees, especially in the
Shihezi.
5.1.2. Spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of carbon sequestration of
the ecosystem services
The service level of natural ecosystems is related to changes in
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Ecological Indicators 132 (2021) 108248
climate and human activities and is especially affected by land use
changes. Fig. 3(b,d) shows that in the process of economic construction
and water and soil development from 2000 to 2015, the ecosystem
services also changed significantly, and provision services showed a
trend of continuous improvement, with carbon sequestration being 3.06
times that of 2000. The services of culture, support, regulation, and total
services showed a wave-like downward trend. Compared with 2000,
these services decreased by 46.97%, 21.65%, 16.45% and 12.31%,
respectively. There was a slight rebound in 2010 due to the large number
of farmland shelter forests planted in oases to prevent sand and dust
from harming the environment. The decline after 2010 was due to the
supply of ecological water being squeezed with the increase in water
used for production and living, and a large amount of vegetation died.
From the perspective of spatial distribution (Fig. 4), except for provision
services, the high value area of ecosystem services was approximately
the opposite of the area of urbanization and was mainly located in the
upper mountain area and the desert shrub area in the lower reaches of
the basin, reflecting the distribution trend that the farther away an area
was from the city centre, the higher the service level. The upstream
region, relying on the resource advantage of high forest coverage, made
the greatest contribution to landscape recreation, soil conservation,
water conservation, climate regulation and habitat provision services,
while the downstream desert shrub area maintained a high service level
in water and soil conservation, hydrological regulation and habitat
provision services. Due to the impact of urban development and
R. Liu et al. Ecological Indicators 132 (2021) 108248

Fig. 4. The spatial distribution of the average carbon emissions of urbanization from 2000 to 2015 (a-e), the average carbon sequestration of ecosystem services from
2000 to 2015 (g-k), and the difference between 2015 and 2000 (f,l).

construction, ecosystem services in most areas of the basin decreased in the ecological protection of the basin and coordinating the development
2015, especially in the upper reaches and the main urban area. Only of the city with the resources and the environment should be given
some round fields located in Shawan County and in the Xinhu farm area attention by managers in the river basin, especially in arid areas with a
increased. fragile ecology.

5.1.3. Dynamic characteristics of human well-being

5.2. The relationship between urbanization and ecosystem services
Driven by urban socioeconomic development, human well-being
improved significantly in the study period. Total carbon storage in
In order to explore the impact of urban development on ecosystem
2015 had grown to an amount that was 1.92 times that in 2000 (Fig. 3
services with the improvement of urbanization level in 2000–2015, the
(d)); among this total growth, in 2015, carbon storage in social well-
relationship between the two systems was revealed by using the
being was 0.57 times that in 2000, and the economic well-being,
constraint line method. There were three constraint relationships be-
which was the main contributor to the improvement of human well-
tween urbanization and ecosystem services: the hump type, logarithmic
being, was 2.69 times the amount in 2000. However, as an important
type, and negative line type relationships (Fig. 5). The results showed
part of human well-being, ecological well-being decreased by 23.24%.
that economic urbanization, land urbanization and total urbanization
From the time trend of well-being indicators (Fig. 3(c)), the growth of
had obvious constraints on ecosystem services, and the constraint rela-
safety well-being (SW) was small, and the change was relatively stable.
tionship showed a logarithmic curve, which indicated that the potential
The growth of health well-being (HW) was significant and showed linear
maximum value of the ecosystem services decreases with the improve-
growth, and overall social well-being (SociW) steadily improved. Ma-
ment of urbanization level and that the constraint intensity gradually
terial security well-being (MSW) and production and development well-
increases with the increase of economic scale and land development
being (PDW) did not change much from 2000 to 2005. During
intensity. Social urbanization and population urbanization had negative
2005–2015, material security well-being continued to increase, with a
line constraints on support services, regulating services, cultural services
relatively obvious increase, while production and development well-
and total ecosystem services, and with a more stable binding force to
being increased significantly, and the overall economic well-being
limit the improvement of these services. Social urbanization and popu-
(EconW) and production development well-being displayed the same
lation urbanization showed a hump-type constraint relationship with
change trend. High-quality environmental well-being (HEW), ecological
the provision services, and there was a threshold. The process of ur-
security well-being (ESW) and overall ecological well-being (EcolW)
banization increased the demand for provision services, promoted the
displayed the same change trend, demonstrating a fluctuating down-
expansion of the cultivated land area, and improved the level of provi-
ward trend and indicating that the disturbance of the urbanization
sion services. However, in the more developed urbanization areas, the
process threatened the stability of the natural ecosystem. Strengthening
provision services were constrained by the amount of cultivated land

9
R. Liu et al. Ecological Indicators 132 (2021) 108248

Fig. 5. The constraint relationship between urbanization and ecosystem services (tC/km2).

area, which was less than that in the lower urbanization areas. The
improvement of urbanization reduced people’s dependence on local
ecosystems for raw materials. The total urbanization, economic urban-
ization and land urbanization had the same constraints on total
ecosystem services and all dimensions, indicating that they were more
closely related to each other, and the process of action on services was
similar, although the constraint intensity was different. Regardless of the
kind of constraint relationship, urbanization has had a negative impact
on ecosystem services. Obviously, this was not conducive to the reali-
zation of the sustainable and high-quality development of the basin. Can
the relationship between the two achieve a U-shaped transformation in
the future, and can the ecosystem services present a positive and
cooperative relationship with urban development? To answer these
questions, urban development strategies are crucial.

Fig. 6. Changes in the UDBI of the MRB and its administrative regions from
5.3. The relationship between urbanization and human well-being
2000 to 2015.

The ultimate goal of urban construction is to improve human well-

and remained stable from 2010 to 2015. Shawan County dropped to its
being, and the quality of urban development is related to the potential
lowest point in 2005 and then slightly increased and remained stable,
of the sustainable attainment of human well-being. Based on the quan-
with an overall decrease of 49.92%. Shihezi City showed a continuous
titative results of urbanization and human well-being with carbon as the
downward trend, with a decrease of 58.03%. Benefiting from the
medium, this paper calculated the benefit index of the urban develop-
adjustment of the industrial structure, the urban development index of
ment of the Shihezi City, the Shawan County, the Manas County and the
Shawan County was higher than that of Shihezi City and Manas County.
whole basin, that is, the contribution of carbon emissions per unit of
The overall basin showed a straight-line downward trend, with a
urbanization to the carbon storage of well-being. Fig. 6. shows that the
decreasing rate of 59.16%, indicating that the urbanization process of
overall development benefits of the three administrative regions and the
the river basin was still an extensive development process supported by
basin exhibited a downward trend, and Manas County had the largest
high resource consumption; in addition, the resource utilization rate
decline, reaching 69.21%, which dropped sharply from 2000 to 2010

10
R. Liu et al.
continued to decrease, which was contrary to the goal of developing a
low-carbon economy.
5.4. Correlation analysis of urbanization, ecosystem services and human
well-being
It can be seen from the correlation heat map that social and economic
well-being in the primary indicators had a very significant positive
correlation (P < 0.01) with the overall level of urbanization (OU) and
other dimensions except population urbanization, while it had a nega-
tive correlation with the overall level of ecosystem services (OES) and
other dimensions except supply services (showing a very significant
positive correlation) (Fig. 7). In particular, it showed a very significant
negative correlation with cultural services. Ecological well-being, on the
contrary to social and economic well-being, had a negative correlation
with urbanization, especially with economic urbanization and land ur-
banization. In terms of ecosystem services, ecological well-being had a
very significant positive correlation with supporting, regulating and
total services, and a low negative correlation with supply and cultural
services. The relationship between secondary well-being indicators and
urbanization and ecosystem services was broadly consistent with that of
primary indicators. In general, human well-being had a very significant
positive correlation with urbanization, while it had a significant positive
correlation with ecosystem services. The impact of urbanization on
human well-being was greater than ecosystem services.
6. Discussion
6.1. Research methods
From the perspective of element flow and taking carbon as the me-
dium, this paper systematically analyzed the status and relationship of
urbanization, ecosystem services and human well-being in the MRB. The
carbon-based research method is mainly based on two considerations:
First, the importance of the carbon cycle itself and its important research
value to the study area. The second is that carbon can be used as a
quantitative unit for a unified and systematic analysis of the relationship
among the three. This method has three main advantages:
(1) The carbon cycle has important research value.
Carbon, as the main geochemical element, is widely found in natural
and socioeconomic systems in different forms. Through the carbon fix-
ation of vegetation, part of the CO2 in the atmosphere (mostly dis-
charged by urban development) is fixed in the form of organic carbon,
Fig. 7. Correlation coefficients of urbanization, ecosystem services and human
well-being.
11
Ecological Indicators 132 (2021) 108248
and it flows to the social and economic system in the form of grain,
wood, grazing grass, etc. At the same time, carbon provides ecological
services, such as purifying water, regulating climate, and maintaining
soil and landscape recreation for the human living environment (Xu
et al., 2019), thus affecting human well-being. The quantity distribution,
existing form and transfer process of carbon in natural and socioeco-
nomic systems will lead to changes in urbanization, ecosystem services
and the human well-being system itself, as well as the relationship
among them. Therefore, based on the circular flow of carbon between
natural ecosystems and human socioeconomic systems, carbon, as the
medium, provides a new perspective for clarifying the intricate rela-
tionship among ecosystem services, urbanization processes, and human
well-being in the river basin. In previous studies, based on the
perspective of carbon element flow, Xu et al. (2019) studied the path of
ecosystem service provision-flow-transmission-consumption in the MRB
through the analysis methods of material flow and energy flow and
verified the feasibility of quantifying ecosystem services and human
well-being from the perspective of element flow. This study lays a
foundation for further research on the relationship among urbanization,
ecosystem services and human well-being. On the other hand, the
existing form and distribution of carbon are very important for the arid
and fragile watersheds’ development, which involves ecological envi-
ronments, economic growth, social equity and other issues, i.e., the key
factors of high-quality development, of which low-carbon development
is also an important component. Therefore, carbon cycle has important
research value for the MRB, This paper quantitatively studied the flow
process of carbon between urban socio-economic system and natural
ecosystem, and systematically revealed the interaction relationship of
various subsystems in the basin from the perspective of carbon flow,
which was the focus of this paper.
(2) Unify dimensions to avoid errors in calculation.
Due to the different data dimensions of conventional comprehensive
index evaluation methods, in the process of data standardization, the
standardization results will be affected by the distribution of index data,
which may cause errors in the results. The quantification method based
on carbon has a unified dimension and can avoid the error caused by
standardization. On the other hand, as for the evaluation method of
ecosystem services, Costanza et.al. had proposed the method of unified
dimension based on money (Costanza et al., 1997), but the evaluation
results of different scholars in the same region are often very different
due to the different quantitative standards of different indicators.
Therefore, the accuracy of the evaluation results remains to be discussed
(Xu et al., 2019). Compared with the method of quantifying ecosystem
services based on money, the carbon-based quantification method can
avoid large errors caused by different quantitative standards of different
indicators.
(3) The unified dimensional evaluation results can provide a quan-
titative and comparative basis for further research.
Because most evaluation methods fail to unify the index unit, in
addition to calculating the comprehensive index after standardization, it
restricts the further research on the relationship of indexes or systems.
The quantitative evaluation based on carbon provides a quantitative and
comparative basis for further research. Based on the evaluation results of
urbanization carbon emissions and human well-being carbon storage,
this paper constructed an urban development benefit index to measure
the contribution of unit carbon emissions to human well-being, that is,
to measure the urban development benefit from the perspective of well-
being. At present, the research on carbon emission benefits is related to
economic development and has become a hot issue. From an economic
perspective, the research has focused on the decoupling and reconnec-
tion between regional economic development and carbon emissions
(Zhao et al., 2006; Sun and Li, 2011), which was represented by the
R. Liu et al.
economic output created by unit carbon emissions, namely, the perfor-
mance of carbon emissions in economic development or the economic
effect of carbon emissions (He and Su, 2009; Pan and Zhang, 2011).
However, although the carbon emission performance effect of economic
development is the decisive factor of the total effect of carbon emission
performance, it is difficult to comprehensively describe carbon emission
performance (Zhu and Liu, 2011). Human well-being is the purpose and
terminal of carbon emissions. Therefore, research on carbon emission
performance based on well-being orientation and under the construction
of people’s livelihood and well-being is a more innovative research
topic. Currently, there are few research results on the benefits of carbon
emissions based on the perspective of well-being, and the human well-
being assessment framework adopted is mostly based on the human
development index (De la Vega and Urrutia, 2001; Tian et al., 2007).
The evaluation dimension is relatively singular, and the dimensions of
different indicators are difficult to unify. Based on the urban develop-
ment benefit index constructed by carbon elements, this paper took
economic well-being and social well-being into consideration on the
basis of a unified dimension and conducted an empirical study on the
carbon emission performance of the MRB in the process of rapid
industrialization and urbanization. It not only makes up for the defi-
ciency of measuring urban development benefits only from a single
index or less comprehensive indicators, but also the results are intuitive
and easy to compare.
Certainly, the research method of this paper also has some limita-
tions and deficiencies. When constructing the evaluation index system,
this paper required that the selected indicators should be representative
of the development level of the measurement dimension and can be
quantified by carbon. Therefore, the established index system may be
limited by the selection of indicators, which are limited by the ratio-
nality and accuracy of the quantification method. Therefore, in terms of
comprehensiveness, It may be weaker than the conventional compre-
hensive evaluation index method. However, the index system estab-
lished in this paper covered the basic dimension of the evaluation
subject. The selected index was also the key index under this dimension.
It can reflect the level and state of the evaluation subject and achieve the
research purpose, but the research method still needs to be strengthened
in terms of comprehensiveness and accuracy.
6.2. The complex relationship between urbanization, ecosystem services
and human well-being
Urbanization is the inevitable trend of social and economic devel-
opment. The development of cities is accompanied by the migration of
population, the expansion of economic scale and construction land and
changes in lifestyle. In this process, the structure of land use and cover,
the degree of landscape fragmentation, industrial structure, age struc-
ture, and diet structure, among other aspects, will change with the
development stage of urbanization. Structure determines function. The
change in structure will change the original flow direction and the flow
of various ecological flows. Key ecological processes, such as the carbon
cycle, will be reshaped, and carbon will be redistributed in natural
ecosystems and socioeconomic systems. With a large amount of carbon
flowing from the natural ecosystem to the socioeconomic system, the
service functions of the ecosystem, which are largely dependent on
vegetation biomass, have changed. The increasing carbon storage in
cities makes the urban function more sound and affects human well-
being together with ecosystem services. With the goal of continuously
improving human well-being, cities will continue to emit and accumu-
late carbon, which has a profound impact on the carbon cycle between
natural and socioeconomic systems.
The degree of demand for different dimensions of well-being will
guide the direction of urban development and its relationship with the
ecological environment and ecosystem services and lead to a develop-
ment imbalance among different well-beings. The overall level of human
well-being in China has improved significantly, but at the same time, it is
12
Ecological Indicators 132 (2021) 108248
also facing a serious imbalance in development. In particular, increasing
carbon emissions, in a sense, has exacerbated the imbalance of human
well-being in China (United Nations Development Programme, 2010).
According to the assessment results, human well-being in the MRB
mainly comes from social and economic well-being, while the ecological
well-being has reduced the overall level of human well-being. From the
correlation analysis, it can be seen that urbanization played a significant
role in improving human social and economic well-being. Land devel-
opment and socio-economic development had greatly improved prod-
ucts such as energy supply, road traffic accessibility and agricultural
investment. Industrialization and agricultural modernization promote
the surge of agricultural and industrial products to meet the material
needs of people’s production and life. The people’s living standards have
been generally improving, and the conditions of clothing, food, housing
and transportation, health and education have been significantly
improving as well, which improves the material supplies required for
human health and safety well-being and the vitality of economic pro-
duction. However, urbanization had a negative impact on human
ecological well-being. Ecological well-being was closely related to the
level of ecosystem services. As the expansion of construction land
encroached on the land with strong support and regulation services such
as forest land and grassland, the loss of land with high ecosystem service
value leads to the reduction of ecosystem service capacity (except supply
services) and the decline of ecological well-being. Ecosystem services
are the basis of urban development. The decline in ecological well-being
that relies on ecosystem services will not only lead to the reduction of
total human well-being and the imbalance of development but also
directly threatens the growth potential and sustainability of urban
development and human well-being in the future.
There are two main reasons for the unbalanced development of
human well-being. One is the current policy orientation. The domestic
institutional context, such as the government performance appraisal
system, central and local fiscal decentralization, the paid land use sys-
tem and the agricultural land expropriation system, has accelerated the
urbanization process but relatively ignored the protection of the
ecosystem because the protection is not in line with the maximization
function of local government administrative performance—the maxi-
mization of administrative performance and local fiscal disposable in-
come (Sun, 2014). Therefore, in urban development decision-making,
managers pay more attention to rapid economic growth than to
ecological environmental protection. The fundamental reason is that
they do not realize the potential, significant and supporting role and
value of ecological capital for human beings to obtain comprehensive
and sustainable well-being. Compared with the tangible, rapid and
specific impact on human well-being brought by urbanization, the
impact of most ecosystem services on human well-being is more intan-
gible, fuzzy and not easy to perceive. Pricing for nature, charging for
ecological products, and bringing the value of ecological services into
the national accounting system will help to improve the people’s un-
derstanding of the value of natural capital and then lead to the effective
management of natural capital. However, at present, the pricing system
of ecosystem services is still regulated by the free market, resulting in
regional differences, which now reflects the huge inequality in the
valuation of goods and services (Carreno et al., 2012). Therefore, to
measure ecosystem GDP, finding a unified measurement method inde-
pendent of market price is urgently needed.
The second reason for the unbalanced development of human well-
being is the neglect of the ecological well-being by the existing well-
being assessment system. Since ecological factors are not taken into
account in the measurement of human well-being, these measurements
cannot reflect the ecological and environmental costs of improving
human well-being (Wang and Shen, 2010), which is bound to lead to an
overestimation of the level of human well-being in those areas and to a
sacrifice of the environment for high human well-being. Therefore,
environmental well-being is an important component of human well-
being. However, the current human well-being assessment system is
R. Liu et al.
not mature, and few studies have incorporated ecosystem services or
ecological components into the assessment framework. Under the
background of high-quality and sustainable development, the regional
development strategy should shift from focusing on economic develop-
ment to the comprehensive management of resources, environment and
social economic development. It is necessary to integrate the balance,
comprehensiveness and sustainability of human well-being into the
decision-making basis. In particular, the supporting role of the ecolog-
ical environment for human well-being should be given full attention.
High-quality development emphasizes the coordination between eco-
nomic development and ecological protection; and the national level has
attached great importance to the acquisition of human ecological well-
being; therefore, the assessment framework of human well-being
should also be improved. Taking ecological well-being into account
and giving it enough weight can lead not only to the measurement of the
current level of human well-being but also to the assessment of the
potential ability to obtain future well-being based on changes in the
ecological well-being. When ecological well-being is given enough
importance, the relationship between urbanization, ecosystem services
and human well-being will also be more coordinated.
Ecosystem services and urbanization have dual effects on human
well-being, promoting or reducing or even threatening human survival
and development. In the process of urbanization, industrial develop-
ment consumes more energy and resources, increasing thereby carbon
emissions and pollution, and dense urban populations cause housing
shortages and traffic congestion. The improvement of the quality of life
and the development of social culture require more resource consump-
tion and a better infrastructure to meet the demand. The adjustment of
land use structure becomes inevitable. While the occupation of high-
service land by construction land reduces the human well-being ob-
tained from ecosystem services. The negative effects of urban develop-
ment also reduce the well-being of human health, safety and the
happiness of life. According to the calculation, China’s urban pollution
alone causes more than 7.8 billion yuan of health loss per year (Zheng
and Yan, 1999). The ecological and environmental problems caused by
urbanization are manifested not only by the environmental destruction
and ecological degradation of single factors, such as the atmosphere,
water, land, organisms, resources and energy, but also in the destruction
of the “flow”, “net” or “order” of the city, which leads to the structural
variation and loss of function of the entire ecosystem (Wang, 1988). The
decline in ecosystem service functions caused by urbanization has led to
increased negative ecosystem services. From 2000 to 2015, with a
15.32% decline in the area of woodlands and a 92.02% increase in the
area of construction land, the suitable habitat and recreation areas were
lost, and the climate and hydrological regulating services declined in the
MRB, which was directly related to the reduction in land area with high
ecosystem service capacity. Although the average carbon density in the
MRB has increased (from 65.71 tC/km2 in 2000 to 76.65 tC/km2 in 2015
(Wei, 2018)), this increase cannot offset the reduction in total NPP
caused by land use changes. However, the results of the constraint line
analysis (Fig. 5) showed that the constraints of urbanization on
ecosystem services were still increasing, and the decline of the UDBI of
the MRB (Fig. 6) also showed that the cost of resources and environment
for the growth of human well-being was increasing. When basic
ecosystem services change due to population growth, land development
and excessive consumption of natural resources, lasting social welfare
will face risks (Kremen and Ostfeld, 2005). Therefore, it is necessary to
fully understand the social and ecological effects of urbanization to
assess the balance among short-term human needs and long-term
ecosystem services, as well as the healthy and sustainable develop-
ment of the basin.
6.3. Strategies of regional low-carbon and high-quality development
According to the results of this study, urban development can
significantly improve human well-being from both social and economic
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Ecological Indicators 132 (2021) 108248
sides, however, reduce ecological well-being by affecting the capability
of regulating, supporting and cultural services. Consequently, affect the
balance and growth potential of entire human well-being. The regional
coordinated development strategies with the core of low-carbon and
high-quality development should be carried out in the context of urban
development benefits reduction and the constraints increase of urbani-
zation on ecosystem services. In order to achieve the goal of coordinated
and high-quality development of urban social economy, ecosystem
services and human well-being in the MRB, the basin should be regarded
as an ecological and economic community and the relationship among
the three elements should be coordinated as well. To realize the win–win
situation of economy and ecology, the flow and distribution of carbon
between the urban socio-economic system and the natural ecosystem in
the basin needs to be optimized and reshaped through policy, economy,
technology and other means under the effective management and
planning of the government.
In the context of new urbanization, urban agglomeration must be the
main body to promote the coordinated development of the urban sys-
tem. It is suggested that the integrated and coordinated development
strategy of the Shimasha (Shihezi Reclamation Area-Manas County,-
Shawan County) town groups should be implemented, with the devel-
opment of urban oasis economy as the driving force, ecological resto-
ration as the guarantee, low-carbon and innovation as the core,
complementary functions, dislocation development and complemen-
tarity. Strengthen the internal coordination and cooperation of the
Shimasha town groups, break down institutional barriers, break
regional resource constraints, give full play to the comparative advan-
tages of various regions, promote the spatial balance of population,
economy, resources and environment and the coordination of relations
among all parties, so as to form a new regional pattern of rational di-
vision of labor, interactive cooperation and common development
among regions. The key to the coordinated development of Shimasha
town groups is to strengthen the top-level design, formulate the outline
of coordinated development, and form a planning system with consis-
tent objectives, clear levels and mutual connection. It should focus on
making breakthroughs in the fields of industrial docking and coopera-
tion, ecological and environmental protection linkage, transportation
integration and equalization of basic public services, so as to improve
the level of urban development, ecosystem services and human well-
being and realize the coordinated development of the three.
The industry is the lifeblood of urban economic development. Under
the current goal of carbon neutralization and the demand for high-
quality development, to develop an urban oasis economy, a modern
economic system guided by green, low-carbon, innovation and cooper-
ation should be built, adjusting the industrial structure, eliminating or
transforming and upgrading backward industries with high energy
consumption, and improving the quality and efficiency of economic
development. Regarding the agriculture sector, the following measures
should be carried out, including optimizing the land use pattern and
carry out land integration; reducing cotton and increase grain, opti-
mizing planting structure; reducing chemical fertilizer, pesticide and
agricultural film pollution and increasing the application of organic
fertilizer; vigorously developing efficient facility agriculture, ecological
agriculture and precision agriculture. Regarding the industry sector,
more efforts should be made on optimizing the layout of coordinated
industrial development, expanding and strengthening the characteristic
and leading industries such as textile, grain and oil, commercial cotton,
new materials, photovoltaic, agricultural and animal husbandry ma-
chinery and equipment manufacturing in the basin; adjusting the in-
dustrial structure, moving out, eliminating or upgrading the traditional
backward industries with high energy consumption; relying on the ad-
vantages of local resources, encouraging and supporting the develop-
ment of clean energy such as hydropower, wind energy and solar energy,
as well as the research and introduction of extra-high voltage and energy
storage technologies, so as to expand the substitution proportion of
clean energy. Vigorously developing the tertiary industry is another
R. Liu et al.
reasonable way by creating a policy and institutional environment
conducive to the development of the service industry; promoting the
development of trade, logistics, finance, information software, tourism
and other service industries. In particular, Shawan County and Manas
County can rely on the rich geothermal, forest and desert resources in
the county to vigorously develop tourism, such as forest health tourism,
ecological vacation tourism, hot spring recuperation, desert culture
tourism, etc.
With the development of the cities, the large-scale deforestation of
forestland, the overgrazing of grassland, the occupation of cultivated
land and grasslands by construction land, and the occupation of
ecological water by production and living water, the output of
ecosystem services has been continuously weakened. Therefore,
ecological restoration measures with natural vegetation restoration as
the core should be determined in the basin. Implement the linkage of
multiple measures of prohibition and cultivation, including closing
mountains for afforestation, grain for green, grazing with grass, house
feeding and captivity, and artificial grassland; the linkage of interre-
gional management, including unified water rights management, opti-
mization of water resources allocation, protection of ecological water
use, ecological restoration of river shoreline land in the area; engi-
neering linkage of building reservoir, repairing damaged river channel,
etc.
The optimization of infrastructure and the improvement of public
services are important aspects to improve human well-being. Therefore,
we should speed up the docking of basic public service systems in the
region, establish a coordination mechanism for the integration of basic
public services, and effectively promote the barrier-free flow of basic
public service resources in the town groups. First, it should integrate
regional transportation resources and strengthen the regional sharing of
transportation facilities. Strengthen the construction of internal
connection channels in the area, realize the connection and coordination
of trunk road networks, and promote the integrated connection of public
transport among the three urban areas. Meanwhile, the damaged roads
shall be renovated and other roads shall be upgraded. Especially for the
mountainous areas with particularly inconvenient traffic, the hardening
of production and transportation roads shall be strengthened. It is worth
noting that the development of culture, education and medical care in
mountainous areas is still very backward, so special funds should be set
up to support the social and economic development of mountainous
areas. Vigorously support excellent teachers in the cities to support
teaching in mountainous areas, expand the coverage of medical insur-
ance, spread advanced culture and technology to mountainous areas.
Meanwhile, herdsmen shall be encouraged to settle in plain oasis areas.
In short, to achieve low-carbon and high-quality development of the
basin, it must coordinate the relationship among urban construction,
ecosystem services and human well-being. There is a long way to go for
the underdeveloped areas in Northwest China with fragile ecological
backgrounds represented by the MRB.
7. Conclusion
This paper studied the carbon flow process of release, fixation and
storage between natural ecosystem and socio-economic system driven
by urban development, so as to explored the socio-economic and eco-
environmental effects caused by urbanization process, and preliminar-
ily revealed the relationship among urbanization, ecosystem services
and human well-being with carbon as the medium. The results showed
that in the MRB, where the social and economic development is rela-
tively backward, the urbanization process had a negative effect on the
structure and function of the natural ecosystem, and caused the unbal-
anced development of human well-being. Although it had significantly
improved the level of human social and economic well-being, the
ecological well-being showed a downward trend due to its interference
and damage to the ecosystem services. The extensive development of the
cities with high resource consumption and high carbon emissions not
14
Ecological Indicators 132 (2021) 108248
only strengthened the constraints on ecosystem services, but also made
the benefits of urban development lower and lower, which runs counter
to the goal of high-quality development. Changing the mode of eco-
nomic growth, coordinating and balancing the socioeconomic and
ecological environmental effects caused by urbanization, realizing in-
dustrial ecology and ecological industrialization, and comprehensively
improving human well-being are a major challenge and direction for
cities in Manas River Basin and Western China to achieve low-carbon
and high-quality development.
CRediT authorship contribution statement
Ranran Liu: Conceptualization, Methodology, Software, Data cura-
tion, Writing– original draft, Visualization, Investigation, Writing– re-
view & editing. Xiaobin Dong: Conceptualization, Supervision. Xue-
chao Wang: Methodology, Software, Visualization. Peng Zhang:
Conceptualization, Investigation. Mengxue Liu: Software, Investiga-
tion. Ying Zhang: Software, Investigation.
Declaration of Competing Interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence
the work reported in this paper.
Acknowledgements
This work was funded by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific
Expedition and Research Program (STEP) (2019QZKK0608), the Na-
tional Natural Science Foundation of China (41671531), and China
Science & Technology Supporting Program (2017YFE0100400).
Appendix A. Supplementary data
Supplementary data to this article can be found online at https://doi.
org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.108248.
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