By The Numbers, Lionel Messi Is European Football's Best Scorer Ever

2023/11/22 21:50 By the numbers, Lionel Messi is European football’s best scorer ever
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Graphic detail | Simply the best
By the numbers, Lionel Messi

is European football’s best
scorer ever
Goals make up only half of his value, but his scoring was more
impactful than that of other greats
Aug 14th 2021 Share
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/08/14/by-the-numbers-lionel-messi-is-european-footballs-best-scorer-ever 1/9
MESSI-adjusted goals* per 90 minutes, selected players in major European leagues†
Lionel Messi 2004-21 Cristiano Ronaldo 2002-21 Ronaldo 1994-

Scored 1.4 Messi
goals per
game in
2012-13
Trendline
15 20 25 30 35 40 15 20 25 30 35 40 15 20 25
Player’s age
Diego Maradona 1982-93 Gerd Müller 1965-79 Johan Cruyff
Eusébio 1960-77 Ferenc Puskas‡ 1958-66 Alfredo Di Sté
15 20 25 30 35 40 15 20 25 30 35 40 15 20 25
Player’s age
*Using the Modern-Equivalent Soccer Scoring Index (MESSI), an exchange rate for historic goals into the equivalent f
F ootball’s most fruitful partnership has ended in tears. On

August 8th a weeping Lionel Messi said he was leaving
Barcelona, the club he joined when he was just 13. The Argentine
forward has scored a record 474 goals in La Liga, Spain’s top league.
His teams have won ten La Liga titles and four Europe-wide
Champions League trophies.
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Mr Messi offered to slash his salary in order to stay. But Barcelona

is deep in debt, and pays 95% of its revenue in wages. La Liga has
set a ceiling of 70%, forcing the club to let him go. On August 10th
he joined Paris Saint-Germain (psg), a rich French team.
Now 34, Mr Messi may not even be psg’s top scorer next season.
But the only question about his peak in 2009-19 is whether it was
the greatest ever. Although historical comparisons are tricky in
football, the best available data suggest that it was.
Mr Messi’s standing relative to his contemporaries can be analysed

reliably. Today, the location and result of every shot, dribble, pass
and tackle are tracked. ku Leuven, a university, and SciSports, an
analytics firm, have built a system to measure how each action
affects a team’s odds of scoring, by comparing where the ball was
before and after a player touched it.
p y
Goals added* per 90 minutes, 2012-20

Selected players in European leagues, by change in probability
of scoring for average team before and after each action
From shooting actions From other actions

0 0.5 1.0 1.5
L. Messi
C. Ronaldo
Neymar
K. Mbappé
Z. Ibrahimovic
R. Lewandowski
L. Suárez
S. Agüero
M. Salah
E. Haaland
E. Cavani
A. Robben
L. Jovic
P.-E. Aubameyang
A. Fati
H. Kane
G. Bale
Á. Di María
E. Hazard
In 2012-20, their model reckons that Mr Messi would have boosted
In 2012 20, their model reckons that Mr Messi would have boosted
an average team’s scoring margin by 1.77 goals per match. Cristiano
Ronaldo, his old rival at Real Madrid, came a distant second at 1.43.
Comparing Mr Messi with past greats is harder. The only data

available for all European leagues before 2000 are goals scored and
match results. And not all goals are created equal: scoring rates fell
sharply from 1950 to 1970, and goals are easier to come by in
weaker leagues.
To level the playing field, we devised an exchange rate called the

Modern-Equivalent Soccer Scoring Index (messi). For each season
in each league, it uses the average number of goals per match and
team strength—as measured by the Elo system, which rates clubs
based on their results and the quality of their opponents—to
estimate how many goals players would have scored under
different conditions. For example, in the 1960s Eusébio played in a
weak, high-scoring Portuguese league. His goals are worth 37%
less than those in La Liga in 2004-21. By contrast, Diego Maradona
faced stout Italian defences, making his goals worth 5% more than
the modern baseline. (We excluded penalties, which pad some
strikers’ stats more than others’.)
After these tweaks, the diminutive Mr Messi stands head and

shoulders above the competition. At his best, he averaged one goal
per 90 minutes. Mr Ronaldo reached 0.9; greats from earlier eras
were below 0.8.
These rankings are far from perfect. They underrate players like
Maradona and Johan Cruyff, who were as much creators as
finishers. And they cannot capture the value of defenders like
Franz Beckenbauer.
Even among strikers, important data are missing. Ferenc Puskas’s

latter years roughly match Mr Messi’s recent seasons.
Unfortunately, Elo ratings do not exist for the post-war Hungarian
leagues that the young Puskas dominated. Nor are they available
for Brazil or America, where Pelé, widely seen as the greatest
player of the 20th century, played club football.
What is certain, based on modern analytics, is that only half of Mr

Messi’s value comes from shots at goal. He is also an extraordinary
dribbler and passer. This suggests that even the prolific Puskas and
Pelé may not have been his equal.7
Sources: PlaymakerStats.com; ClubElo.com; KU Leuven; SciSports; The Economist
This article appeared in the Graphic detail section of the print edition under the headline
"Simply the best"
From the August 14th

2021 edition
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2023/11/22 21:50 By the numbers, Lionel Messi is European football’s best scorer ever

Graphic detail | Simply the best

By the numbers, Lionel Messi

Aug 14th 2021 Share

MESSI-adjusted goals* per 90 minutes, selected players in major European leagues†

Lionel Messi 2004-21 Cristiano Ronaldo 2002-21 Ronaldo 1994-

Diego Maradona 1982-93 Gerd Müller 1965-79 Johan Cruyff

Eusébio 1960-77 Ferenc Puskas‡ 1958-66 Alfredo Di Sté

F ootball’s most fruitful partnership has ended in tears. On

Mr Messi offered to slash his salary in order to stay. But Barcelona

Mr Messi’s standing relative to his contemporaries can be analysed

Goals added* per 90 minutes, 2012-20

From shooting actions From other actions

In 2012-20, their model reckons that Mr Messi would have boosted

Comparing Mr Messi with past greats is harder. The only data

To level the playing field, we devised an exchange rate called the

After these tweaks, the diminutive Mr Messi stands head and

Even among strikers, important data are missing. Ferenc Puskas’s

What is certain, based on modern analytics, is that only half of Mr

From the August 14th

Explore the edition

Share Reuse this content

More from Graphic detail

The world is (still) failing to come close to its

Why Central Americans migrate to

Researchers pin down the role of climate

Despite its sympathies, Egypt is

Subscribe Reuse our content Help and contact us

Group subscriptions The Trust Project

Published since September 1843 to take part in “a severe contest

The Economist The Economist Group

About The Economist Group Economist Education

Terms of Use Privacy Cookie Policy Manage Cookies Accessibility

Terms of Use Privacy Cookie Policy Manage Cookies Accessibility

Modern Slavery Statement Sitemap Your Data Rights

Copyright © The Economist Newspaper Limited 2023. All rights reserved.

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