A.Y.

2022-2023

University of the Philippines Manila

College of Arts and Sciences

An Ecological Study on the Relationship Between the Biodiversity and Abiotic Factors of the
Northern Watershed in Winterfell, Kingdom of Westeros

BIO 181 LB2B Group 2

ALMAMARI, Ameera Sulaiman Said

BENITO, Robert

JOSE, Zavien Jamison

LOPEZ, Joan Abigayle

NARVAEZ, Denise Aaliyah

Submitted to Sir Glenn Sia Su

on December 18, 2022

 ABSTRACT

Illegal wildlife trafficking such as poaching has always been the main driving force of certain
wildlife species to the brink of extinction. Overexploitation is also another problem in which natural
resources are continuously harvested at an unsustainable rate, leading to habitat degradation and
destruction, disturbances in food webs, as well as wildlife endangerment and extinction. Such activities
are the main contributing factors that pose a direct threat to a large-scale biodiversity loss and can result
in several negative impacts on human well-being. Thus, in order to investigate the possible presence of
illegal wildlife activities in the Northern watershed of Winterfell, an ecological study was conducted to
address diversity within the area. Utilizing a map and corresponding GPS coordinates, predictor variable
data were collected and sampled through proportionate stratified random sampling where the resulting
strata were subjected to several statistical tests. The data obtained generally exhibited linearity and no
multicollinearity, however, failed the normality and homoscedasticity assumption which led to the
transformation of data using IBM SPSS. A weighted least squares test was utilized to assess the
relationship between annual mean temperature, annual mean precipitation, NDVI with bird richness,
mammal richness, and amphibian richness. The results indicated a strong positive relationship in all
dependent variables with the annual mean temperature and annual mean precipitation in contrast to NDVI
which exhibited a negative relationship. Findings show an inverse relationship between NDVI and animal
richness but further research is highly recommended for a more conclusive reason to be made from the
said observation.

Keywords: biodiversity, abiotic factors, proportionate stratified random sampling, NDVI, weighted least
squares regression

INTRODUCTION

Background of the Study

A watershed located in Winterfell, Westeros is known to be home to a diverse ecosystem of lush

vegetation, rich mineral resources, and a variety of organisms coexisting as one. A watershed is a region
of land that functions to channel rainfall and snowmelt into neighboring bodies of water such as rivers,
streams, or creeks (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, n.d.). Not only this, watersheds
contribute to many other ecological functions such as increasing biodiversity, providing natural beauty,
and contributing to resources such as food, shelter, and the like. They are known to be great provisions of
water; cost-efficient in a way that they are capable of meeting human demands for water yet are
inexpensive to maintain (Luck, Chan, & Fay, 2009). Furthermore, watersheds are natural flood mitigators
and carbon storages. Not only do watersheds provide forest cover that can act as physical barriers against
floods, but they also serve as reservoirs that can collect and temporarily hold surface runoff that the soil
and trees can no longer absorb (Luck, Chan, & Fay, 2009; Osman & Bath, 2017).

Recently, reports of poaching and illegal activities allegedly being conducted in the watershed
have reached the eyes and ears of the government presiding over the Kingdom of Westeros. Such
activities endanger the wildlife there, potentially leading to a collapse in the ecosystem the Kingdom so
greatly benefits from. Unsure of the veracity behind such claims, the government commissioned an
investigation regarding the state of the biotic and abiotic resources within the Winterfell watershed area
and determine its relationship with the species richness of the said area. In such a way, the government
can plan and prepare for the necessary steps that should be taken in order to mitigate the situation in the
watershed.

The study will focus on three abiotic factors, namely the annual mean precipitation, annual mean
temperature, and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). As defined by Natural Resources
Canada (n.d.), annual mean precipitation is defined as the average sum of rainfall and the assumed water
equivalent of snowfall for a given year. On the other hand, the annual mean temperature is defined as the
approximate average of the maximum and minimum temperatures of a year. It is calculated by taking the
mean average of the coldest month of a given year and averaging it with the mean average of the hottest
month of the same year (Gartneer, 2018). Lastly, NDVI refers to the density of green vegetation in a given
area. It is measured through the use of satellite imaging, wherein distinct wavelengths of visible and
near-infrared light reflected by plants are observed. More reflected light in the near-infrared wavelengths
than in visible light wavelengths indicate denser vegetation in a given pixel of an image (National
Aeronautics and Space Administration, 2000). The aforementioned abiotic factors will be tested for any
relationship they may have with the species richness of birds, mammals, and amphibians living in the
watershed of Winterfell, Westeros.

Significance of the Study

The results of the study will be beneficial to the following:

The Government of Westeros

Through the results of this study, the Westeros government can obtain valuable and necessary
information needed for them to understand the relationship between the abiotic factors, mean annual
precipitation, annual mean temperature, and NDVI, and the richness of the bird, mammal, and amphibian
species. By understanding the significant relationships between such factors and species richness, the
government can then develop and implement informed policies that can alleviate the kingdom’s problem
with their collapsing ecosystem. The study will also assess the situation regarding the watershed’s natural
resources through the use of NDVI and correlate the assessment with the species richness. With these, the
government can be made aware of possible concerns with resource decline, if any, and formulate
corresponding courses of action as needed.

The Citizens of Westeros

The results of this study can help educate the citizens of Westeros, especially those living near the
watershed of Winterfell, about the relationship between the aforementioned abiotic factors to the species
richness of birds, mammals, and amphibians. By being enlightened with such things, the citizens can be
made aware of any actions they have been doing that are unknowingly negatively impacting the
biodiversity and ecosystem of the watershed. Furthermore, they can be made aware of the necessary steps
they can take in order to help in restoring and preserving the ecosystem of the Winterfell watershed.
Research Objectives

In general, this study aims to assess the biodiversity inhabiting the Winterfell watershed and
establish its relationship with the abiotic factors present there. Particularly, the study will investigate the
relationship between bird, amphibian, and mammal richness and the mean annual precipitation, annual
mean temperature, and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI).

Hypotheses of the Study

Null Hypothesis

Annual mean precipitation

H0: The annual mean precipitation does not have a significant relationship with bird
richness.

H0: The annual mean precipitation does not have a significant relationship with mammal
richness.

H0: The annual mean precipitation does not have a significant relationship with
amphibian richness.

Annual mean temperature

H0: The annual mean temperature does not have a significant relationship with bird
richness.

H0: The annual mean temperature does not have a significant relationship with mammal
richness.

H0: The annual mean temperature does not have a significant relationship with amphibian
richness.

Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)

H0: The NDVI does not have a significant relationship with bird richness.

H0: The NDVI does not have a significant relationship with mammal richness.

H0: The NDVI does not have a significant relationship with amphibian richness.
Alternative Hypothesis

Annual mean precipitation

Ha: The annual mean precipitation has a significant relationship with bird richness.

Ha: The annual mean precipitation has a significant relationship with mammal richness.

Ha: The annual mean precipitation has a significant relationship with amphibian richness.

Annual mean temperature

Ha: The annual mean temperature has a significant relationship with bird richness.

Ha: The annual mean temperature has a significant relationship with mammal richness.

Ha: The annual mean temperature has a significant relationship with Bird, Mammal, and
Amphibian Richness.

Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)

Ha: The NDVI has a significant relationship with bird richness.

Ha: The NDVI has a significant relationship with mammal richness.

Ha: The NDVI has a significant relationship with amphibian richness.

Scope and Limitations

An ecological study, as well as proportionate stratified random sampling, are carried out, with
datasets collected using a gridded map of the area as the sampling frame, with grids used for locating
Global Positioning System (GPS) coordinates. However, frame errors can emerge when using this source
material or device in which the sampling frame appears inaccurate or inadequate representation of the
population of interest. Various causes can be attributed to frame errors such as the inclusion of
nonpopulation members and the exclusion or duplication of members within a population (Kruttschnitt et
al., 2014). Latitude separation was used to stratify the population, with proportionate random sampling
ensuring that each stratum is proportionate to population size. Given that, all groups separated by latitude
are still represented in terms of sample fractions regardless of sample size. Furthermore, the richness of
mammalian, bird, and amphibian species was taken into account, as were the abiotic factors deemed
relevant in determining the relationships with each outcome variable.

Individuals of the species are expected to have average characteristics of the group as a whole due
to aggregated data and a lack of individual predictor relationship data, giving the researchers little to no
control over its confounding variables in an ecological study, which simplifies the relationship of the
variables. Relationships between predictor variables and outcome variables can still be investigated using
cross-sectional data and average data points collected at various locations. However, it is to be expected
that it will not be as comprehensive as it should have been unlike with the presence of
individual-predictor relationship data, which the researchers were unable to gather due to time constraint
and urgency of the situation. Finally, observational errors, specifically incorrect data, reading, and
interpretation, are possible which were promptly reduced through the use of available studies and constant
rechecking of collated data.

Concept Mapping

Figure 1

Concept map of the study

In summary, reports of wildlife trafficking in the Winterfell watershed have reached the Daenerys
Targaryen-ruled court, including poaching, illegal trading, smuggling, and the collection of endangered
species. Such activities disrupt the ecosystem, endanger biodiversity, and increase the spread of zoonotic
diseases in the area. With animal diversity affected, specifically amphibian, mammalian, and bird
richness, abiotic factors were noted, namely topography and climate, and is specifically determined as the
three predictor variables, specifically the normalized difference vegetation index, annual mean
precipitation, and annual mean temperature, garnered from various latitudes.
 METHODOLOGY

Sample design

Considering that every individual unit within the statistical target population cannot be entirely
accounted for which makes it extremely difficult to completely measure all items, a sampling frame is
utilized wherein it contains a finite set of all measurable items to which different sampling techniques can
be applied (Albert et al., 2010). From a sampling frame, sampling units can be obtained and measured for
the study population. For this paper, grid-cells of a map serve as the sampling units defined in terms of
geographical location or area; frame error can occur when utilizing a map since there is a possibility of an
undetermined number of units that could overlap with each other. Nevertheless, a well-defined sampling
frame is greatly beneficial to determine the probability of selection, consequently generating a sample
accurately representing the population of interest. Using a gridded map representing a sampling frame of
the area concentrated in the Winterfall watershed, GPS coordinates as square cells (or pixels) can be used
as reference points and sampling units for the study.

In selecting a sample appropriate for representing the population, the method of proportionate
stratified random sampling is employed in which the strata chosen is based on the regions between the
five major parallels of latitude, that being the Antarctic Circle, Tropic of Capricorn, Equator, Tropic of
Cancer, and the Arctic Circle. This sampling method establishes that the probability of choosing a unit
from a stratum depends on the relative size of that stratum in the population, reducing variance and
ensuring that all regions are well-represented. For determining the appropriate sample size, the standard
formula for sample size estimation for finite populations with quantitative variables is used. Based on the
population size of 4075, the total sample size computed is 383 with a 95% confidence interval and a
margin of error of 5%. Consequently, the sample size for each strata is then calculated by multiplying the
proportion of the population size of each stratum and the entire population to the total sample size. Table
1 shows the resulting sample sizes for each region, from south to north, which then equate to 40, 81, 33,
205, and 24 respectively.
Table 1

Sizes and percentages of population and sample per stratum

Strata Population size Sample size

Size Percent (%) Size Percent (%)

-66.5° to -23.5° 428 10.50 40 10.44

-23.4° to -0.9° 862 21.15 81 21.15

0° to 23.4° 356 8.74 33 8.61

23.5° to 66.4° 2177 53.42 205 53.5

66.4° to 90° 252 6.18 24 6.27

Total 4075 100 383 100

Note. The negative sign indicates that the latitude is south of the equator, while the positive sign signifies north latitude lines.

After computing for the appropriate sample size for each stratum, the values were then
randomized using the random function of Excel (=RAND) in which the random numbers assigned to each
sample were sorted by the random numbers. The first n cases of each stratum were subsequently chosen
for the sample size population.

Study Design

In line with the objectives of the research and the data available, the study design that best
accommodates these is an observational study. Given that the data are unavailable at the individual level,
the ecological study design is selected, focusing on associations based on aggregate data for an entire
population rather than individuals within a population. This study design further branches into three:
solely descriptive, time-trend, and cross-sectional (Alexander et al., n.d.). Since the data gathered were
obtained at a certain point in time, the cross-sectional ecological study is the most appropriate wherein
both predictor and outcome variables are collected within the same period of time from a population. This
type of study provides a way to utilize the accessible geographical and environmental data in order to
examine their relationship with species richness, particularly of birds, mammals, and amphibians.

However, utilizing this study design has a tendency of encountering the ecological fallacy, a
methodological error in which conclusions are incorrectly made regarding individuals or groups within a
population when the aggregate data is established strictly at the group level. This fallacy arises from the
presumption that the association between variables at the group level can be applied to the individual, thus
homogenizing the average characteristics of each individual within the group. A simple way to avoid this
special bias to remember that correlation does not imply causation. In ecological studies, the aggregation
of data causes the loss or obscuring of certain details of information since statistical correlations tend to
be larger when associations are evaluated at the group level.

That said, inferential statistics can still play a role in aiding the interpretation of any findings
derived from the data. If it is shown with the use of inferential statistics, for example, that a finding could
have occurred simply due to the random nature of the sample selected rather than being likely to reflect
something real within the population as a whole then this remains useful information.

Data analysis

The investigation of the state of biodiversity within the Northern Winterfell Watershed requires
the obtainment of relevant data that are essential in this study which are mainly composed of abiotic
factors such as the annual mean temperature, annual mean precipitation, and Normalized Difference
Vegetation Index (NDVI) which were the independent/predictor variables while bird richness, mammal
richness, animal richness were the dependent variables. In order to assess and establish the relationship
between each of these variables, both descriptive and inferential statistics were employed along with their
corresponding tests to analyze the data acquired, all of which is done through utilizing statistical
softwares such as IBM SPSS and Excel. Most importantly, it is worth noting that the data obtained were
tested for both linearity and normality prior to undergoing any statistical tests.

Descriptive tests

In order to summarize the samples and measures of quantitative data in a more cohesive manner,
descriptive statistics were implemented to accomplish this. These are the means for measures of central
tendency, variability, and skewness. Descriptive tests were only used once the square root transformation
was completed to observe the skewness of the distribution after an attempt to correct the positively
skewed values.

Inferential tests

A regression analysis is the most suitable inferential test. In this case, the Weighted Least Squares
(WLS) method is used in regression analysis wherein the weights of the observations are inversely
proportional to the variance. This technique is used especially when the data that is being analyzed is
heteroscedastic or fails the assumption of homoscedasticity.

Before performing the regression analysis, tests were conducted to check for assumption
violations. The following assumptions were taken into consideration before selecting the appropriate
regression test: linearity, normality, multicollinearity, and homoscedasticity.

The generated plots revealed that linearity exists between the independent variables and the
dependent variables, all giving a generally good best-fit line, with the R-squared values being moderately
close to 1 and more than 0.5. This is important as linearity in regression analysis can tell how much of the
total variability in the data is explained by the study.

The next test was for normality, specifically the Shapiro-Wilk’s test, and it revealed that the data
collected were non normal, giving a significance value of less than 0.05. Due to this, the data was
transformed using a square root transformation in SPSS to correct both the normality and positive skewed
values. After the square root transformation, the skewness of all the independent variables were corrected,
but the normality was still violated, but significantly improved compared to untransformed and
transformed Q-Q plots. Despite still having non normal data, the researchers continued to use the
transformed variables with improved normality and skew as according to Li et al. (2012), linear
regression analysis can still remain statistically sound as it does not necessarily contribute to the outcome
or predictors, rather it affects the estimates. Li et al. (2012) also mentioned that there are other factors that
more significantly contribute to the quality of linear regression results. In addition, Knief & Forstmeier
(2021) revealed that estimates remain mostly unbiased unless the distribution is highly skewed. Seeing as
the skewed distribution was corrected by the transformation, the p-value can still remain reliable (Knief &
Forstmeier, 2021).

Figure 2.

Normal Q-Q Plot of transformed Bird Richness Illustrating Residual Distribution Normality
Figure 3

Normal Q-Q Plot of transformed Mammal Richness Illustrating Residual Distribution Normality

Figure 4

Normal Q-Q Plot of transformed Amphibian Richness Illustrating Residual Distribution Normality
Table 2

Descriptive statistics of Bird Richness, Mammal Richness, and Amphibian Richness observed in
Winterfell Watershed

Mean Standard error of Skewness Kurtosis

the mean

Bird Richness 14.5707 0.22634 0.192 -0.663

Mammal Richness 7.9165 0.13873 0.655 -0.737

Amphibian 3.5804 0.13596 0.709 -0.366

Richness
The skewness of the independent variables were significantly corrected, garnering values of less than +1.00, from having values
of greater than +1.00.

The third test measured collinearity statistics, specifically tolerance and the Variance Inflation
Factor (VIF). While both essentially test for multicollinearity, it is important that multicollinearity
remains minimized when it comes to regression analysis. This is because the statistical significance of the
independent variables becomes undermined due to the inflation of standard errors (Siegel, 2016). Hence a
collinearity tolerance was used where a value closer to 1 indicates high tolerance and low
multicollinearity whereas a value closer to 0 indicates low tolerance and high multicollinearity. Similarly,
VIF determines how much of the variance from the estimated regression coefficient is inflated when a
correlation between the independent variables are present (Shrestha, 2020) where a value above 5
indicates multicollinearity. Therefore, it can be concluded that the independent variables exhibited no
multicollinearity, garnering a tolerance of greater than 0.25 and VIF of less than 4.00.

Table 3

Test for Multicollinearity of the independent variables NDVI, Annual Mean Temperature, and Mean
Annual Precipitation with dependent variable *a. using Tolerance and Variance Inflation Factor

Collinearity Statistics
Model Tolerance VIF

1 NDVI-normalized difference 0.280 3.566

vegetation index

Annual Mean Temperature 0.400 2.497

Mean Annual Precipitation 0.378 2.644

a. Dependent Variable: sqrt_BirdRichness
Table 4

Test for Multicollinearity of the independent variables NDVI, Annual Mean Temperature, and Mean
Annual Precipitation with dependent variable *a. using Tolerance and Variance Inflation Factor

Collinearity Statistics
Model Tolerance VIF

1 NDVI-normalized difference 0.280 3.566

vegetation index

Annual Mean Temperature 0.400 2.497

Mean Annual Precipitation 0.378 2.644

a. Dependent Variable: sqrt_MammalRichness

Table 5

Test for Multicollinearity of the independent variables NDVI, Annual Mean Temperature, and Mean
Annual Precipitation with dependent variable *a. using Tolerance and Variance Inflation Factor

Collinearity Statistics
Model Tolerance VIF

1 NDVI-normalized difference 0.280 3.566

vegetation index

Annual Mean Temperature 0.400 2.497

Mean Annual Precipitation 0.378 2.644

a. Dependent Variable: sqrt_AmphibianRichness

The last test is for homoscedasticity which essentially refers to the assumption of equal variances
whenever a comparison happens between the different groups. Homoscedasticity is an important factor
during regression analysis and parametric statistical tests as unequal variances in samples often lead to
biased and skewed results (Lachos et al., 2011). The following results illustrated in Figures 5, 6, and 7
shows the residual scatter plots generated from IBM SPSS and contains a distinctive pattern indicating
that the data dealt at hand has failed the assumption of homoscedasticity therefore making it
heteroscedastic. Hence, a different regression analysis is required for inferential statistics.
Figure 5

Plot of Bird Richness Regression Standardized Predicted Values against Regression Standardized
Residuals exhibiting Heteroscedasticity

Figure 6

Plot of Mammal Richness Regression Standardized Predicted Values against Regression Standardized
Residuals exhibiting Heteroscedasticity
Figure 7

Plot of Amphibian Richness Regression Standardized Predicted Values against Regression Standardized
Residuals exhibiting Heteroscedasticity

Due to the presence of heteroscedasticity, the suitable statistical test was the Weighted Least
Squares Regression.
 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Table 6

WLS regression results of Bird Richness and predictor variables NDVI, Annual Mean Temperature, and
Mean Annual Precipitation

Adjusted Standardardized Significance

R-squared Coefficients Beta

(Constant) <0.01

NDVI –0.433 <0.01

0.869
Annual Mean Temperature 0.502 <0.01

Mean Annual Precipitation 0.074 0.014

a. Dependent variable: sqrt_BirdRichness
b. Weighted Least Squares Regression - Weighted by weight_BR
The confidence interval used is 95%, with a significant p-value of α < 0. 05. Results show significant results
with NDVI and Annual Mean Temperature, indicating a relationship.

Table 7

WLS regression results of Mammal Richness and predictor variables NDVI, Annual Mean Temperature,
and Mean Annual Precipitation

Adjusted Standardardized Significance

R-squared Coefficients Beta

(Constant) <0.01

NDVI –0.303 <0.01

0.802
Annual Mean Temperature 0.485 <0.01

Mean Annual Precipitation 0.182 <0.01

a. Dependent variable: sqrt_MammalRichness
b. Weighted Least Squares Regression - Weighted by weight_BR
The confidence interval used is 95%, with a significant p-value of <0.05. Results show significant results with
all the variables, indicating a relationship.
Table 8

WLS regression results of Amphibian Richness and predictor variables NDVI, Annual Mean Temperature,
and Mean Annual Precipitation

Adjusted Standardardized Significance

R-squared Coefficients Beta

(Constant) <0.01

NDVI –0.332 <0.01

0.802
Annual Mean Temperature 0.441 <0.01

Mean Annual Precipitation 0.283 <0.01

a. Dependent variable: sqrt_AmphibianRichness
b. Weighted Least Squares Regression - Weighted by weight_BR
The confidence interval used is 95%, with a significant p-value of <0.05. Results show significant results with all the
variables, indicating a relationship.

Tables 6, 7, and 8 show the results from the least weighted squares analysis performed with the
independent variables or predictors, NDVI, Annual Mean Temperature, and Mean Annual Precipitation
against the dependent variables Bird Richness, Mammal Richness, and Amphibian Richness. The adjusted
R-squared values estimate the fit of the independent variables to linear regression, illustrating how
strongly related the variables are to the dependent variable. All the models showed a high adjusted
R-squared value (greater than 0.7), indicating a strong correlation to the dependent variable. Furthermore,
the Standardized Coefficients Beta values show what type of relationship the independent variables and
dependent variable share by the sign convention; a negative number indicates a negative relationship,
while a positive number indicates a positive relationship. As seen in Tables 6, 7, and 8, the standardized
coefficient beta results all show a positive relationship of all three dependent variables with Annual Mean
Temperature and Mean Annual Precipitation, while they all show a negative relationship with NDVI. This
will be discussed further in the paper.

The significance tells whether the null hypothesis is to be rejected or not, given the confidence
interval of 95%. All of the results show a significant p-value of less than 0.05, indicating that the
predictors are related to the dependent variables, except for mean annual precipitation against bird
richness. For the predictors except mean annual precipitation, the null hypothesis stating no relationship
can be rejected.
Bird Richness

The findings of the study regarding bird richness and the predictor variables Annual Mean
Temperature were in line with current literature, as they exhibit a strong positive relationship with each
other. A shift or change in the annual mean temperature correlates with a shift in bird richness, and since
they have a positive relationship, an increase in 0.502 units of the annual mean temperature also increases
bird richness by 0.502 units. Birds are migratory animals, and studies have shown that birds migrate to
warmer climates and take advantage of spring seasonality as the resources available for living and having
offspring are optimal for the species in areas with warmer temperatures, compared to colder climates
where resources drop (Marra et al., 2004). Another study by Liang et al. (2020) found that bird richness
was positively correlated with annual mean temperature, regions with low temperatures are limiting in
resources not only for birds but also for some plants and insects, lowering the species richness as they
consume a variety of seeds and insects.

The data from this study revealed that bird richness does not have a significant relationship with
mean annual precipitation, which is not in line with available literature. Precipitation is found to be one of
the drivers for bird species richness (Liang et al., 2020), as precipitation also correlates with temperature.
The same study also revealed that precipitation has a positive relationship with bird richness, but another
study by Walther et al. (2017) revealed that there were no clear trends for a number of bird species
regarding their relationship with mean annual precipitation, which can possibly explain the findings of
this study; there were no specified bird species and their differences in living needs could possibly explain
the result.

Finally, NDVI and bird richness also exhibit a significant relationship, which is in line with
related literature. Though contrary to recent studies, NDVI and bird richness exhibit a negative
relationship, which means that a 0.433 unit increase in NDVI result to a decrease in bird richness, which
is not the expected result, as NDVI is an indicator of vegetation, which is a useful resource for species
richness (Bino et al., 2008).

Mammal Richness

All of the predictor variables correlate with mammal richness, with only NDVI having a negative
relationship with mammal richness. The results showing a positive correlation between annual mean
temperature and mammal richness is in line with literature related to the topic, as studies show a negative
relationship between the predictor and mammal diversity (Feng et al., 2019), not richness alone. This is
backed up by Read et al. (2018) suggesting that differences in mammal body size significantly affects
how they react to temperature, as they are endothermic. Read et al. (2018) found that mammals with
smaller body sizes had higher species richness with temperature increase, while those with bigger body
sizes showed the opposite. Due to these findings, it can be presumed that the population of mammals in
the Winterfell Watershed have small body sizes, hence, increasing by the same unit increase as the annual
mean temperature. In this case, the findings in this study can also infer that mammal diversity is possibly
lower due to the positive relationship between temperature and richness, as smaller mammals thrive better
in warmer environments. In addition, mammal richness decreases with increasing temperature in arid
environments (Ferrer-Castán et al., 2016), and since Winterfell Watershed is a sufficient water source,
increase in temperature would not negatively correlate with mammal richness, especially for smaller
mammals.

As for precipitation, more contradicting studies are found since an increase in precipitation
initially increases mammal richness, which is in line with the findings of this study, but it also eventually
decreases richness as more annual precipitation occurs, due to the possible flooding of burrows (Feng et
al., 2019). Since the data was collected cross-sectionally, it may be possible that the point in time the data
were collected was in line with the peak richness for mammals.

The relationship between NDVI and mammal richness is also negatively correlated, contradicting
available literature. Similarly to that of bird richness, increased vegetation should have increased mammal
richness as well (White et al., 2022).

Amphibian Richness

The positive correlation between amphibian richness and the annual mean temperature and mean
annual precipitation are in line with previous studies, as high temperatures help regulate the body
temperature of ectothermic species, especially for those that spend time on land, and lower temperatures
are associated with higher migration of amphibians (Dervo et al., 2016; Qian et al., 2007).

The same goes for precipitation, which increases amphibian richness as rainfall provides moist
conditions that are consistent with the physiological needs of amphibians (Olson et al., 2007).
Furthermore, Ortiz-Yusty et al. (2013) revealed that temperature was the most important variable
regarding the correlation with amphibian richness, followed by precipitation.

Similar to the other dependent variables used in this study, NDVI also showed a negative
correlation with amphibian richness, which is not in agreement with past studies.

Generally, a high NDVI indicates more available green vegetation, which serves as either shelter,
food, among other things, for different species groups. The negative relationship exhibited by NDVI and
all the dependent variables may indicate that the richness of the different groups may be affected by other
abiotic factors discussed, such as possible changes in resource availability due to temperature and/or
precipitation, or changes in habitats. Nonetheless, there is no conclusive evidence of these, especially of
why the increase of NDVI correlates with the decrease in species richness, and more research must be
done to exactly pinpoint the reason.
 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Conclusion

From the gathered data, it has been determined that the abiotic factors annual mean temperature,
mean annual precipitation, and NDVI have significant relationships with mammal and amphibian
richness, while bird richness is found to have a significant relationship with annual mean temperature and
NDVI only. A positive relationship was found between bird richness and the annual mean temperature
while a negative relationship was observed between bird richness and NDVI. Similarly, a positive
relationship was found between mammal richness and both annual mean temperature and mean annual
precipitation. The same could be said for the relationship between amphibian richness and the
aforementioned predictor variables, wherein amphibian richness has a positive relationship with both
annual mean temperature and mean annual precipitation. Additionally, both mammal and amphibian
richness were also found to have a negative relationship with NDVI.

As mentioned previously, the positive relationships between species richness and annual mean
temperature and mean annual precipitation align with existing literature. Increases in temperature result in
warmer weather for wildlife, providing them with a suitable environment for living and reproducing. In a
similar way, increases in precipitation have been shown to positively influence species richness,
especially in amphibians as it helps provide them with a moist environment for them to live in most
optimally. On the other hand, the NDVI was expected to show a positive relationship with all the
aforementioned species richness as an increase in NDVI essentially means an increase in available green
vegetation. However, a negative relationship was observed. This could indicate possible changes in
resource availability caused by changes in other abiotic factors such as temperature, precipitation, and the
like, which in turn negatively affected the species richness of the aforementioned groups. Despite this,
further studies need to be made in order to ascertain the cause of the negative correlation between NDVI
and species richness.

Recommendations

In totality, a further investigation, especially an individual predictor relationship data, is

recommended to supplement depth to the already presented results. Moreover, a follow-up about other
factors is of importance as it sheds more light and possibly provides a new correlation or perspective to be
aware of, aside from the already proven predictor variables distinguished by previous studies. Given the
negative relationship of the species with normalized difference vegetation index, not only are wildlife in
danger of such activities but also is the lush vegetation found within the area, for these same species also
aid, either directly or indirectly, in seed dispersion leading to the continued propagation of vegetation in
the Watershed. It is also of utter relevance for the kingdom to implement policies ensuring wildlife and
nature preservation and restoration. Lastly, given the negative relationship of richness with NDVI,
additional studies focusing on the said data is highly recommended so as to ascertain the cause of the said
negative correlation.
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