XIAMEN UNIVERSITY MALAYSIA

Mark:

Course Code : FIN305

Course Name : Portfolio Management
Lecturer : Prof. Annuar Md Nassir
Academic Session : 2021/04
Assessment Title : Assignment 1
Submission Due Date : Week 8

Prepared by : Student ID Student Name

FIN2004062 Lam Yao Hong
FIN2004338 Erica Eunice Tay
FIN2009922 Chang Yi Wen
FIN2009923 Chia Khai Yee
FIN2009929 Lee Wai Onn

Date Received :

Feedback from Lecturer:

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Own Work Declaration

I/We hereby understand my/our work would be checked for plagiarism or other misconduct,
and the softcopy would be saved for future comparison(s).

I/We hereby confirm that all the references or sources of citations have been correctly listed
or presented and I/we clearly understand the serious consequence caused by any intentional
or unintentional misconduct.

This work is not made on any work of other students (past or present), and it has not been
submitted to any other courses or institutions before.

Signature:
(Yao Hong) (Erica) (Yi Wen) ( Khai Yee) (Wai Onn)
Date: 11/11/2022

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Table of Contents
1.0 Executive Summary 4
2.0 Theoretical framework 5-6
3.0 Data and Methodology 7-8
3.1 Data 7
3.2 Methodology 8
4.0 Main Findings 8-18
4.1 Coefficient of Variation of 30 stocks 8-9
4.2 Portfolio Analysis 10
4.2.1 TWTR and PFE 10
4.2.2 Minimum Variance Portfolio 10
4.2.3 Optimal Risky Portfolio 11
4.2.4 Risk-free Asset and TWTR 11-12
4.2.5 Risk-free Asset and PFE 12-13
4.2.6 Risk-free Asset and Minimum Variance Portfolio 13-14
4.2.7 Risk-free Asset and Optimal Tangency Portfolio 14-15
4.2.8 Combined Portfolio 15-16
4.3 Stock Beta 17-18
5.0 Conclusion 18-19
6.0 References 20
7.0 Presentation video 20
Appendix 1- Calculations and Graphs 21-33
Appendix 2- Marking Rubrics for Assignments 1 33
Appendix 3- Marking Rubrics for Presentation Video Assignment 1 34

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1.0 Executive Summary

A pragmatic strategy for choosing securities that will maximize their overall returns while

maintaining a reasonable risk level is the modern portfolio theory (MPT). Using this

theoretical basis, a portfolio of assets is created that maximizes expected return for the total

amount of assumed uncertainty. The MPT theory emphasizes diversity as a vital element.

Most trades have either great returns at high risk or low returns at low risk.

According to Markowitz, traders can get the best possible outcomes by selecting the

right proportion of the combination, taking into account their unique tolerance for risk. We

used the total 5 years and it’s started from 1 st Nov 2017 to 1st Oct 2022 (monthly) which the

data we gathered are from Yahoo Finance. After gathered 30 difference stocks, we have to

calculate the Covariance (CV) then used these 30 stocks to compare the average return (AR)

and standard deviation (SD) of but there has a condition, either the AR and SD of one stock is

higher or lower than another stock, and their correlation has to be negative. After all findings,

we found out that Twitter (TWTR) and Pfizer (PFE) stock achieved the conditions. To

compute the portfolio return, apply excel is a better way to find the portfolio standard

deviation (STDp), variance of portfolio for two stocks (VARp) and coefficient of variation of

portfolio. After that, we have to use this matter to find out the minimum variance and optimal

risky for case of 2 risky assets and assuming a risk-free rate.

Moreover, the simple regression is to find out the 30stocks of beta to minimize the

portfolio risk. The result of this study is discussed about the two-difference weightage of

stocks with 2 single assets portfolio by employing Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT).

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2.0 Theoretical framework

Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) is a practical method that allows investors to optimize their

expected return at a particular level of risk. It was introduced by an American economist

Harry Markowitz in the Journal of Finance in 1952, and he was later awarded Nobel

Memorial Prize for this astounding contribution. MPT assumes that investors are risk averse,

implying that they always prefer low-risk investments with same expected return. Thus,

under this assumption, investors will maximize their expected return at a given level of risk,

which is illustrated by efficient frontier curve that offers the best combinations of risk and

return. Investors are compensated with a higher return for accepting higher risk and they

make investing decision on the trade-off between risk and return differently based on

individual risk aversion.

Figure 1. Efficient Frontier in MPT

MPT is also known as mean-variance analysis as it compares the portfolio’s expected (mean)

return with the standard deviation (as a proxy for risk), which lie on the vertical and

horizontal axis respectively. Meanwhile, capital allocation line depicts all possible

combinations of risk-free and risky assets. The line is the tangent to the efficient frontier and

its slope represents the Sharpe ratio (Modern portfolio theory (MPT) 2022). The intersection

between efficient frontier and CAL line (Point B) refers to the optimal market portfolio with

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highest risk-reward ratio. Furthermore, this theory is related to the minimum-variance

portfolio that helps to determine the portfolio with lowest standard deviation among all

possible mixes of risky assets. MVP is identified at the initial point of efficient frontier,

which is marked as point A.

Another key concept of MPT is diversification. Markowitz argued that the overall risk and

return of a portfolio are always prioritized over the risk and return profile of any single

individual asset. He proposed that combination of two or more assets can reduce the

portfolio’s total risk as idiosyncratic risk can be substantially eliminated through

diversification. Idiosyncratic risk can be defined as unsystematic risk that are specific to an

individual firm, such as business risks and financial risks (Westfall, 2022). In MPT, the idea

of risk minimization is by holding combinations of assets that are not perfectly positively

correlated (-1≤ρ≤1). Thus, to construct the efficient frontier, assets with low positive

correlations or negative correlations are combined to reduce risk exposure. According to

Figure 2, unsystematic risk decreases with the increase in number of stocks, while the

systematic risks remain unchanged. Market risk is non-diversifiable because it is inherent in

the entire market and economic environment.

Figure 2. Number of Stocks and Total Risk

In this assignment, MPT is applied in the portfolio selection process to determine two stocks

with negative correlation. It enables us to find out the combination of assets with strong

financial performance and risk minimization. Then, we construct the graph by illustrating the

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efficient frontier curve and CAL, as well as identify the minimum variance portfolio and

optimal market portfolio point, complying with the MPT’s concept.

3.0 Data and Methodology

3.1 Data

In this report, the historical analysis will be adopted for measuring the returns of 30 selected

stocks. The monthly data for stock closing prices are retrieved from Yahoo Finance, covering

the period from October 1, 2017 to October 1, 2022, with a total of 61 observations. The

S&P 500 index is also obtained from Yahoo Finance as well. The risk-free rate is set lower

than the standard deviation, at 0.005.

3.2 Methodology

Statistical data and charts throughout the report will be calculated and constructed using

Microsoft Excel. In order to sort out two stocks with positive AR and SD from 30 stocks, the

computation of holding period return (HPR) is needed, thus calculating the average return

(AR), standard deviation (risk), and coefficient of variation (CV) to locate two qualified

stocks.

By applying the statistics, two stocks out of 30 stocks will be selected as qualified stocks. The

calculation of the correlation coefficient will be attempted by using the CORREL statistical

command in excel. The necessary statistics (return, variance, standard deviation, and

coefficient of variance) will be computed to indicate a well-diversified portfolio for various

cases. Such as the case of two risky assets (TWTR & PFE), the case of TWTR with a risk-

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free asset, the case of PFE with a risk-free asset, as well as minimum variance portfolio and

optimal risky portfolio for the case of two risky assets and one risky asset with a risk-free

asset. In addition, the efficient frontier will be generated by constructing the combination of

the risk-return graph, and the beta of 30 stocks will be computed by using the SLOPE

command in excel to make a comparison of the volatility of the stock with the overall

market.

4.0 Main Findings

4.1 Coefficient of Variation of 30 stocks

NO Company List CV
1 Alphabet Inc Class A GOOGL 5.279197971
2 Amazon.com, Inc AMZN 5.792996725
3 Apple Inc AAPL 3.783103154
4 Berkshire Hathaway Inc Class A Brk-A 7.02466245
5 Caesars Entertainment Inc CZR 6.929791704
6 Chevron Corporation CVX 9.67391416
7 Coca-Cola Co KO 12.05976949
8 Delta Air Lines, Inc. DAL -85.63890265
9 Expedia Group Inc EXPE 31.30391764
10 Honeywell International Inc HON 10.61948379
11 Intel Corporation INTC -13.11796027
12 JPMorgan Chase & Co JPM 14.50587181
13 Logitech International SA LOGI 12.26639303
14 Marriott International Inc MAR 11.28801625
15 Meta Platforms Inc META -107.3768966
16 Metro Pacific Investments Corp. MPCFF -6.6501345
17 Microsoft Corp MSFT 3.24982714
18 Netflix Inc NFLX 11.14921469
19 NVIDIA Corporation NVDA 6.108220388
20 PepsiCo, Inc. PEP 5.76689073
21 Pfizer Inc. PFE 10.82592
22 Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd RCL 23361.37465
23 Solaredge Technologies Inc SEDG 3.848313455
24 Southwest Airlines Co LUV -35.36902368
25 Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg. Co. Ltd. TSM 8.283201098
26 Tesla Inc TSLA 3.7143248
27 The British Petroleum Company BP -50.44574605
28 Twitter Inc Cedears TWTR 5.846037176
29 Visa Inc V 6.172776529
30 Walmart Inc WMT 6.726971105

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Figure 3. Coefficient of Variation of 30 stocks

The coefficient of variation (CV) is the ratio of the standard deviation to the average return

which reflects the degree of dispersion of the stocks. This ratio allows investors to calculate

the risk per unit of return. The larger the coefficient of variation of a stock, the greater the

degree of variation based on the mean, and the greater the risk of the investment. Therefore,

the smaller the coefficient of variation, the less risk there is for the investor to deal with.

(Investopedia, 2022)

The volatility of the 30 stocks is mostly between 3 to 12, refers that when the return increased

by 1 percent, the risk will then increase by 3 to 12 percent, and the fluctuation can be

considered small. The item that is worth highlighting that the RCL has the largest CV value

of 23361.37465, revealing that stock prices are highly volatile, and investors need to

undertake high risk. Meanwhile, MSFT comes with the lowest CV of 3.24982714. A high

expected return and a low risk of expected return are attractive to investors who are risk-

averse.

In addition, the CV is defined only when the mean is not equal to zero and is generally

applied when the mean is greater than zero. The above table shows that a few stocks (DAL,

INTC, META, MPCFF, LUV, BP) are accompanied by a negative coefficient of variance,

this is mainly caused by the negative average return over 6 years. However, when the

mean/AR value is close to or less than zero, even small fluctuations can have a significant

impact on the CV, thus causing a lack of precision and misleading.

In this paper, the stocks of TWTR and PFE were selected for further study. Although the CV

values of these two stocks are not the lowest, the correlation results for these two stocks show

a negative correlation (-0.19646), indicating that it helps to reduce market risk due to

volatility or sharp price swings.

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4.2 Portfolio Analysis

4.2.1 TWTR and PFE

w(PFE) w(TWTR) Rp VaRp STDp CVp Slope
1 0 0.006891 0.00556512 0.07460 10.825914 0.025347
0.9 0.1 0.008826 0.0043384 0.06587 7.46259749 0.05809
0.8 0.2 0.010762 0.00378371 0.06151 5.71587659 0.093666
0.7 0.3 0.012697 0.00390107 0.06246 4.91917576 0.123233
0.6 0.4 0.014632 0.00469047 0.06849 4.68052756 0.140645
0.5 0.5 0.016568 0.00615191 0.07843 4.73415893 0.147483
0.4 0.6 0.018503 0.00828538 0.09102 4.91940697 0.148346
0.3 0.7 0.020438 0.0110909 0.10531 5.15271271 0.146595
0.2 0.8 0.022374 0.01456846 0.12070 5.39469793 0.143942
0.1 0.9 0.024309 0.01871806 0.13681 5.62808118 0.141134
0 1 0.026245 0.0235397 0.15343 5.8460372 0.138467

Figure 4. Table and a line graph of PFE and TWTR

The risk-return relationship between two risky stocks is shown in Figure 4. The line graph

has a C-shape, implying that a portfolio with both PFE and TWTR will exhibit lower risk

compared to investing in only PFE (10.83) or TWTR (5.85). Based on this figure, it is

recommended that investors hold a portfolio of 60% PFE and 40% TWTR, as it gives the

lowest CV, and investors can earn substantial returns with low risk.

4.2.2 Minimum Variance Portfolio

Figure 5. Table of Minimum Variance Portfolio

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Theoretically, risk averse investors will choose less risky assets for the same level of return.

Similarly, when risk levels are equal, investors will tend to choose higher-returning assets. A

minimum variance portfolio allows risk-averse investors to seek risk minimization for a given

return, and therefore a scenario holding 77% PFE and 23% TWTR is suggested.

4.2.3 Optimal Risky Portfolio

Figure 6. Table of Optimal Risky Portfolio

This concept of portfolio was introduced due to the need to take one of the various portfolios

in the efficient frontier as the optimal portfolio. Combined with the capital market line

(Sharpe ratio) the optimal portfolio can be derived. As shown in the table above, the optimal

portfolio is holding 43% PFE and 57% TWTR, and is given the maximum Sharpe ratio, with

the weights adjusted up and down by 34% respectively relative to the previous minimum

variance portfolio.

4.2.4 Risk-free Asset and TWTR

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Figure 7. Table of Risk-free Asset and TWTR

The risk-return relationship between the risk-free asset and TWTR is shown in Figure 7.

When risk-free assets were completely weighted, the lowest return and standard deviation

were 0.5 percent and 0 percent, respectively. On the other side, a complete weighting on

TWTR produced the largest return and standard deviation, at 2.62 percent and 15.34 percent.

The return and standard deviation of the portfolio increase when the weighting in the risk-free

asset decreases and the weighting in TWTR rises when both assets are present.

Figure 8. Line graph of Risk-free Asset and TWTR

The CAL line in this graph has the equation E(rp) = 0.005 + 0.1384sp. The intercept of CAL

line is 0.005. While the slope in this graph is 0.1384. It suggests that for every additional unit

of standard deviation, an expected return of 0.1384 is needed.

4.2.5 Risk-free Asset and PFE

Figure 9. Table of Risk-free Asset and PFE

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The risk-return relationship between a risk-free asset and a PFE is shown in Figure 9. The

lowest return and standard deviation were 0.5 percent and 0 percent, respectively, when risk

free assets were completely weighted. When the portfolio full weighting on PFE, it had the

greatest return and standard deviation, which at 0.69 percent and 7.46 percent. The portfolio's

return and standard deviation rise as the weighting of PFE increases and the weighting of the

risk-free asset decreases when both assets are present.

Figure 10. Line graph of Risk-free Asset and PFE

The CAL line in this graph has the equation E(rp) = 0.005 + 0.0253sp. The intercept of the

CAL is 0.005. In this graph, the slope of CAL is 0.0253. It demonstrates that an estimated

return of 0. 0253 is needed for every unit of increased standard deviation.

4.2.6 Risk-free Asset and Minimum Variance Portfolio

Figure 11. Table of Risk-free Asset and Minimum Variance Portfolio

The risk-return relationship between risk-free assets and minimum variance portfolios is

shown in Figure 11. The lowest return and standard deviation were 0.5 percent and 0 percent,

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respectively, when risk-free asset weightage was 100 percent. The portfolio with a 100

percent weighting on minimum variance had the greatest return and standard deviation, at

1.14 percent and 6.12 percent, respectively. When both assets are merged, the weighting of

the minimum variance portfolio rises while the weighting of the risk-free asset decreases,

resulting in an increase in the portfolio's return and standard deviation.

Figure 12. Line graph of Risk-free Asset and Minimum Variance Portfolio

The CAL line in this graph has the equation E(rp) = 0.005 + 0.1044sp. The intercept of the

CAL is 0.005. In this graph, the Sharpe ratio is 0.1044. It demonstrates that an anticipated

return of 0. 1044 is needed for every unit of increased standard deviation.

4.2.7 Risk-free Asset and Optimal Tangency Portfolio

Figure 13. Table of Risk-free Asset and Optimal Tangency Portfolio

The risk-return relationship between a risk-free asset and the optimal tangency portfolio is

shown in Figure 13. When risk-free assets were completely weighted, the lowest return and

standard deviation were 0.5 percent and 0 percent, respectively. The maximum return and

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standard deviation, at 1.79 percent and 8.71 percent, respectively, were produced by a

complete weighting on an optimum tangency portfolio. The return and standard deviation of

the portfolio increase when the weighting in the risk-free asset decreases and the weighting in

the optimum tangency portfolio rises when both assets are present.

Figure 14. Line graph of Risk-free Asset and Optimal Tangency Portfolio

The CAL line in this graph has the equation E(rp) = 0.005 + 0.1485sp. The CAL's intercept is

0.005. The CAL has a slope of 0. 1485. It suggests that for every incremental standard

deviation, an anticipated return of 0. 1485 is needed.

4.2.8 Combined Portfolio

Figure 15. Line graph of Combined Portfolio

The capital allocation line and the efficient frontier of a combined portfolio are shown in the

Figure 15. The capital market link (CML), also known as the CAL, is a graphical depiction of

all the portfolios that optimally balance risk and return. A risk-free asset and the market

portfolio are combined in the best possible ways according to the theoretical idea of CML.

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The CML is superior to Efficient Frontier because it combines risky assets with risk-free

assets. The optimal risky portfolio is determined at the point where the CAL intersects the

efficient frontier.

Figure 16. Table of Sharpe ratio for four cases

The capital allocation line (CAL) of the risk-free asset and optimal tangency portfolio has the

highest Sharpe ratio, according to Figure 16. The Sharpe ratio measures how well an

investment's return compares to the level of risk it was exposed to. An investment with a

higher Sharpe ratio will have a higher risk-adjusted return. Similarly, we can see that the

efficient frontier is tangent to the optimum portfolio, which has the maximum slope. The

slope of the CML is equal to the Sharpe ratio of the market portfolio. As a result, the slope of

the market portfolio is known as 0.1485. The market return at this time is 1.79 percent, while

the standard deviation is 8.71 percent.

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4.3 Stock Beta

Figure 17. Table of Beta

The beta coefficient is a key concept in modern financial theory, and it is also one of the most

important parameters in the capital asset pricing model. The significance of beta coefficient is

that it is widely used to measure the volatility of a security or a portfolio of investment

securities relative to the overall market, a security system risk assessment tool. By estimating

the beta coefficient, investors can predict the current or future systematic risk of a security.

According to the investment theory, the beta coefficient of the entire market itself is 1. If the

fluctuation of the net value of the fund's investment portfolio is greater than the fluctuation

range of the entire market, the beta coefficient is greater than 1. Conversely, if the volatility

of the net value of the fund's investment portfolio is smaller than the volatility of the entire

market, the beta coefficient will be less than 1. Securities with larger beta coefficients are

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usually more speculative securities. In this study, we use the S&P 500 as a proxy for US

market returns. We compared the historical returns of 30 stocks and the S&P 500. As a result,

we can observe that TWTR has a lower beta of 0.5655. This means that its volatility is 0.5655

times that of the stock market, i.e. when the market goes up 10%, TWTR stock goes up

5.66%, and when it goes down, it is 5.66% worse. While for PFE it has the higher beta

coefficient of 0.6343. That is, when the market rises by 10%, PFE's stock will rise by 6.34%,

and when the relative market falls, the stock will also fall. Therefore, among the 30 stocks,

PFE will have higher risk than TWTR, and the relative return will also be higher.

5.0 Conclusion

In a nutshell, Markowitz Portfolio Theory suggests that any investment return and risk should

not be evaluated individually, but we need to take into consideration the impact on the overall

portfolio’s risk and return. An investor should build a portfolio of multiple assets that can

maximize the expected return at a given level of risk, or can minimize the risk for a given

level of return. This objective can be achieved through portfolio diversification, which can

reduce the risk of an investor to experience significant loss during major economic downturn.

At first, coefficient of variation of each stock is computed to examine whether the expected

return of stock worth the degree of volatility. Among the 30 stocks that we have chosen,

MSFT has the lowest CV of 3.2498 while RCL has the highest CV of 23361.3747.

Among the 30 stocks, the two stocks that are chosen to illustrate the application of Markowitz

Portfolio Theory are PFE and TWTR because they have a negative correlation of -0.1965.

After combining risk free-asset and PFE, risk-free asset and TWTR, risk-free asset and

minimum variance portfolio, and risk-free asset and optimal tangency portfolio, the optimal

capital allocation line comprising of risk-free asset and optimal tangency portfolio was found

to have the highest slope, which also known as Sharpe ratio. This capital allocation line is

also known as capital market line, and the highest slope indicates that it has the highest risk

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premium. For bearing 1 unit of risk, additional return of 14.85% is required. Any other

portfolio outside of this line would be inefficient. In the real world, investor should always

hold portfolio along this line to achieve the maximum return at a given level of risk. In

addition, the beta of the 30 stocks chosen were computed and the benchmark used in the

computation of beta is S&P 500 index. CZR has the highest beta of 2.6952 while MPCFF has

the lowest beta of -0.2786. The negative beta implies that MPCFF has an inverse relationship

with S&P 500 index.

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6.0 Reference

Hayes, A. (2022, October 20). Co-efficient of variation meaning and how to use it.
Investopedia.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/coefficientofvariation.asp

Westfall, P. (2022, October 16). Modern portfolio theory: What MPT is and how investors
use it. Investopedia.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/modernportfoliotheory.asp

7.0 Presentation video link

https://xmueducn-my.sharepoint.com/:v:/g/personal/fin2004338_xmu_edu_my/
Ebg9z8LWErpNoF4ssxugzawBhfFtjnd87m8UKeJ8NJIQTA?e=VQTY7e

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Appendix 1 – Stock data and Calculations

1.0 List of 30 stocks

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2.0 Historical Price and Holding Period Return of 30 stocks

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Appendix 2- Marking Rubrics for Assignments 1 (15%)

Component Percentage
Assignment 1
Title (%)
Score and Descriptors
Need Weight
Criteria Excellent Good Average Poor Marks
Improvement (%)
(5) (4) (3) (1)
(2)
Clear Correct
Appropriate Inappropriat No
analysis analysis
computation of e results
1-5 with with 15 15
results/analysis/gra computation provide
necessary some
ph . d
details details
TOTAL 100 15

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Appendix 3- Marking rubric for presentation (5%)

Componen Percentage (5
Presentation Rubric
t Title %)
Score and Descriptors
Need Weight
Criteria Excellent Good Average Poor Marks
Improvement (%)
(5) (4) (3) (1)
(2)
Clear
Correct Appropriate
presentatio Inappropriat No
presentatio presentation of
1-5 n with e presentatio 5% 5%
n with some results/analysis/gra
necessary presentation n
details ph
details
TOTAL 100 5%

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