4.

24 Treaty strategies for international problems 国际问题的条约战略

Topics
What are treaties？什么是条约?
What are the laws that govern treaties?管理条约的法律是什么?
How might treaties affect state behaviour?条约如何影响国家行为?

What are treaties?

Treaties are first and foremost international contracts between states
Treaties do not generally amount to international regimes
International law is an umbrella term for international treaties
International law suggests wider application of treaties than members state
条约首先是国家间的国际契约
条约一般不等于国际制度
国际法是国际条约的总称
国际法建议条约的适用范围比成员国更广

Vienna convention 维也纳公约

Convention, covenant, or treaty are synonymous Convention、covenant 或 treaty 是同义词
Protocols are usually subsequent treaties regarding the same topic
Amendments are usually changes to a particular treaty
议定书通常是关于同一主题的后续条约
修正案通常是对某一特定条约的修改

Vienna convention on international law

The treaty of treaties
An essential guide to treaty law in international politics
Defines the scope of international law, application of international law and relationship between
law and international actors
条约中的条约
国际政治中条约法的基本指南
界定国际法的范围、国际法的适用以及法律与国际行为体之间的关系

Establishes sovereignty of state parties 确立缔约国的主权

States must decide which international laws apply and which do not apply
各国必须决定哪些国际法适用，哪些不适用

Treaties as contracts
Contracts require at least two willing participants
They must be equal before the law
Contracts establish obligations
Positive- do something
Negative - refrain from doing something
合同要求至少有两个自愿的参与者
他们在法律面前必须平等
合同确立了义务
积极的——做某事
消极的——避免做某事

Vienna convention(state acceptance of treaties)维也纳公约(国家接受条约)

Signature is NOT acceptance of treaty obligations 签字不是接受条约义务
Ratification, acceptance, approval, and accession signify acceptance
批准、接受、核准和加入表示接受
Any of the above amounts to relinquishing some sovereignty by being bound by treaty contents
上述任何一项都等于受条约内容的约束而放弃一些主权

How does sovereignty affect treaty content?

Reservations and opt-outs 保留和选择退出

Most treaties affect some type of reservation or opt-out of provisions
Reservations are made at time of signature or ratification
Opt-outs are written into the treaties themselves
大多数条约都涉及某种形式的保留或选择退出条款
保留在签署或批准时提出
选择退出被写进条约本身

Reservations
Reservations basically say,”this part does not apply to us”
Or they say,”we understand this part to mean XYZ”
Some reservations are a comment on other reservations
保留意见基本上是说"这部分不适用于我们"
或者他们说"我们理解这部分是 XYZ "
有些保留意见是对其他保留意见的评论
Opt-outs
Opt-out provisions allow states to suspend the treaty provisions under particular circumstances
Most states want to comply, but unexpected events may make it difficult or impossible
Economic treaties often have opts-outs
退出条款允许各国在特定情况下暂停条约条款
大多数国家都想遵守，但意外事件可能会使其变得困难或不可能
经济条约通常有退出条款

Vienna convention(unanimity for test adoption)维也纳公约(测试采用一致意见)

Treaty text adoption requires unanimous consent from all participating countries
Does this make it harder or easier to make treaties?
条约文本的通过需要所有参与国的一致同意
这会使签订条约变得更困难还是更容易?

Treaty negotiations

许多国家 很少国家
国家的数量如何影响谈判?
国家的数量如何影响合法性?
国家的数量如何影响条约的效力?
这个数字可能会如何改变条约的有效性?
许多国家 很少有国家
更难谈判 更容易协商
高度的合法性水平 较低的合法性水平
弱化条约语言 强化条约语言
更多的国家会批准 很少有国家会批准

Vienna convention on international law

Non-Proliferation Treaty essentially prohibits the sale of nuclear weapons material to other
states.
If DPRK is not a member of the Non-Proliferation Treaty, can the US punish DPRK for selling
weapons?
《不扩散核武器条约》基本上禁止向其他国家出售核武器材料。
如果朝鲜不是《不扩散核武器条约》成员国，美国能惩罚朝鲜出售武器吗?

Vienna convention (entry into force)维也纳公约(生效)

Treaties are not binding until they Enter Into Force
EIF criteria are established within the treaty
Usually a kind of tipping point clause in the treaty
Treaties do not EIF with only one party ratification
条约在生效之前是没有约束力的
生效标准是在条约内确定的
通常是条约中的临界点条款
只有一个缔约方批准的条约不会生效
Kyoto protocol《京都议定书》
A Treaty clarifying requirements under the United Nations Convention on Climate Change
(UNCCC, Rio, 1992)
"not less than 55 Parties to the Convention, incorporating Parties included in Annex I which
accounted in total for at least 55% of the total carbon dioxide emissions for 1990 of the Annex I
countries, have deposited their instruments of ratification, acceptance, approval or accession.''
澄清《联合国气候变化公约》要求的条约(1992 年 6 月 1 日)
“不少于 55 个《公约》缔约方，包括附件一所列缔约方，它们的批准书、接受书、核准书
或加入书至少占附件一国家 1990 年二氧化碳排放总量的 55%。”

Vienna convention(application of treaties)维也纳公约(条约的适用)

Once a state is bound, it cannot use domestic laws as a failure to abide by the treaty
Treaties must be observed "in good faith"
Treaties are not retroactively applied
Treaties are bound to all territories
Treaties do not apply to third states
一旦一个国家受到约束，它就不能用国内法作为不遵守条约的理由
条约必须“真诚地”遵守。
条约不具有追溯效力
条约对所有领土都有约束力
条约不适用于第三国

Ps:溯及力，也称法律溯及既往的效力，是指法律对其生效以前的事件和行为是否适用。如
果适用就具有溯及力，如果不适用，该法就不具有溯及力。就现代法而言，法律一般只能
适用于生效后发生的事件和行为，不适用于生效前的事件和行为，即采取法律不溯及既往
的原则。

Vienna convention(leaving treaties)维也纳公约(离开条约)

Cannot leave just part of a treaty
Must not make it impossible for other to fulfill their obligations in the treaty
States may withdraw because of fraud, corruption, coercion, or error
Most treaties establish how states must leave treaties, with some notice
Treaties dissolve implicitly from future treaties
不能只留下条约的一部分
不应使其他国家无法履行其在条约中的义务
各国可能因欺诈、腐败、胁迫或错误而退出
大多数条约都规定了国家必须如何退出条约，并附有一些通知
条约从未来的条约中含蓄地解除

Leaving the ABM 离开《反弹道导弹条约》

Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty prevents US and USSR from building long-range missile defence
systems and radar systems, in force in 1972
《反弹道导弹条约》禁止美国和苏联建立远程导弹防御系统和雷达系统，1972 年生效
US gave 6 months notice (as required) in 2001
美国在 2001 年给予 6 个月的通知(按要求)
"Today I am giving formal notice to Russia that the United States of America is withdrawing from
this almost 30-year-old treaty," Bush said in the White House Rose Garden. "I have concluded the
ABM treaty hinders our government's ability to develop ways to protect our people from future
terrorist or rogue state missile attacks.”
布什在白宫玫瑰园说:“今天，我正式通知俄罗斯，美利坚合众国将退出这项已有近 30 年历
史的条约。”“我得出的结论是，反弹道导弹条约阻碍了我国政府开发保护我国人民免受
未来恐怖分子或流氓国家导弹袭击的能力。”

Vienna convention (Jus cogens)维也纳公约(强行法)

Just Congens is a peremptory norm
Peremptory norms take precedent over any customary form of international law (treaties)
Peremptory norms are non-consensual - they do not require consent to apply
Just Congens 是一种强制性规范
强制性规范优先于任何习惯形式的国际法(条约)
强制性规范是非自愿性/共识的——它们不需要双方同意就能适用

Vienna convention (generally accepted Jus cogens) (Five norms)(普遍接受的强行法)(五项规范)

Slavery 奴隶制
Torture 酷刑
Aggression wars 侵略战争
Genocide 种族灭绝
Maritime piracy 海盗问题

How might treaties affect states?条约如何影响国家?

Rules 规则
Information 信息
Consequences 后果
Norms 规范

Rules
Treaties make substantive rules for parties
Some treaties require behaviour (prescriptive)
Some treaties prohibit behaviour(prescriptive)
条约为各方制定了实质性规则
有些条约要求行为(规定性)
有些条约禁止行为(规定性)

Rules are often ambiguous and require interpretation by the parties

The International Court of Justice (IC)) may interpret some treaties for disagreeing states
Prescriptions require resources, a problem for poorer states
规则往往含糊不清，需要当事人解释
国际法院(IC)可以为不同意的国家解释一些条约
取得时效需要资源，这对较贫穷的国家来说是个问题

Information
Most treaties require information exchange or reporting data to a central body
Many information provisions are voluntary and require self-reporting
大多数条约要求信息交换或向中央机构报告数据
许多信息规定是自愿的，需要自我报告

Why might reporting data affect state behaviour?为什么报告数据会影响状态行为?

Building Scientific Data for better regulations and treaties
Building Capacity for research
Building communication capacity between parties
Naming and shaming
建立科学数据以改善法规和条约
建设研究能力
建立各方之间的沟通能力
点名羞辱

Consequences
Only states have substantial resources
Sanctions and Rewards given by other states
Sanctions and Rewards are costly
只有国家拥有充足的资源
其他国家给予的制裁和奖励
制裁和奖励是代价高昂的

Consequences problems 后果问题

Who suffers the cost of doing the punishing?
Who punishes the punisher?
What punishment fits the violation?
Who decides when a violation occured?
Trade punishment are easy, environmental ones are much harder
谁来承担惩罚的代价?
谁来惩罚惩罚者?
什么惩罚适合这种违规行为?
谁决定何时发生违规行为?
贸易惩罚很容易，环境惩罚就难多了

Treaty norms 条约规范

Treaties establish the "right" and "wrong" behavior for states
International law usually becomes jus cogens subsequent to the passage of international treaties.
Laws have normative power on states
条约规定了国家的“对”与“错”行为
国际法通常在国际条约通过后才成为强制法。
法律对国家具有规范性的力量

The power of norms 规范的力量

Norms are generally seen as weaker than international law. Why?
Norms can reach further than customary law
Norms affect all states
Once internalized, norms become usual behavior and are not considered before acting
规范通常被视为比国际法弱。为什么?
规范可以超越习惯法
规范影响所有国家
一旦内化，规范就会成为通常的行为，在行动之前不会被考虑

Summary
Treaties are Contracts
Treaties as solutions to international conflict and helpful in cooperation
Treaty Definitions and Treaty Components
How Treaties might affect state behavior
条约即合同
条约是解决国际冲突和促进合作的办法
条约定义和条约组成部分
条约如何影响国家行为

4.27
Rationality, heuristics, and biases 理性，启发式和偏见
What is your strategy for picking a number? For guessing.

Common knowledge 常识
Game theory assumes common knowledge
This means all players know all other player’s preferences
All players are using the same rules.
博弈论以常识为前提
这意味着所有玩家都知道其他玩家的偏好
所有玩家都使用相同的规则。

What is the best way to solve this game?

Backward logic - start with the guesser to choose a number
What is the best strategy for guessing?
解决这个问题的最佳方法是什么?
逆向逻辑-从猜者开始选择一个数字
猜测的最佳策略是什么?

Rationality (do you want to play?)(the coin game)

One way to make decisions about games such as the one previous
What is the expected value of playing the game?
EV= 400(50%)+100(50%)-200
EV= 200+50-200=50
So yes

What is formal rationality?什么是形式理性?

Examine all possible options for a particular question or decision
Determine the value of each outcome based on the options available
Choose the option with the highest expected value available
为一个特定的问题或决定检查所有可能的选项
根据可用选项确定每个结果的值
选择可用的期望值最高的选项

A simple question (What’s the best way to travel to APU)

Bounded rationality 有限理性

Humans operate on perceptions of reality, not really itself (sometimes misperceptions)
Humans make “best alternative” decisions, called satisficing
Humans sometimes use shortcuts or heuristics to make decisions
Humans also depend on norms, which is why many of you preferred fair outcomes over rational
ones.
人类是根据对现实的感知来运作的，而不是现实本身(有时是误解)。
人类会做出“最佳选择”的决定，这被称为满足
人类有时会使用捷径或启发式来做决定
人类也依赖于规范，这就是为什么你们中的许多人更喜欢公平的结果而不是理性的结果。

Conclusions
Rationality in daily decisions is virtually impossible, but it is possible in simplified models and
using mathematics (game theory)
Alternatives to rationality include bounded rationality, prospect theory, satisficing, and other
heuristics and biases
Know how to calculate expected values (EV)
Rationality and Common Knowledge are assumptions of game theory and requires all parties
know all options and payoffs for other players
日常决策的合理性实际上是不可能的，但在简化模型和使用数学(博弈论)中是可能的。
理性的替代品包括有限理性、前景理论、满足和其他启发式和偏见
知道如何计算期望值(EV)
理性和常识是博弈论的假设，要求所有参与者都知道其他参与者的所有选择和回报

Game theory 博弈理论

Game Theory provides a set of tools for modeling interactions between individuals
It allows us to formally model interactions between several actors and find stable outcomes.
博弈论为个体之间的互动提供了一套建模工具
它允许我们正式地为几个参与者之间的相互作用建模，并找到稳定的结果。

Game theory basics

All the players are formally rational
Players share common knowledge
All the players know the rules of the game. All the players know that each other know the rules of
the game.
所有参与者在形式上都是理性的
玩家分享共同知识
所有的玩家都知道游戏规则。所有的玩家都知道彼此都知道游戏规则。

Nash equilibrium 纳什均衡

Developed by John Nash at Princeton University, later receiving the Nobel Prize for Economics as
well as other awards.
由普林斯顿大学的约翰·纳什开发，后来获得了诺贝尔经济学奖和其他奖项。
A theory of non-cooperative interactions where each person pursuing their personally preferred
choice does not always lead to the best outcome.
Adam Smith suggested that individually driven behavior should lead to optimal outcomes.
一种非合作互动理论，其中每个人都追求自己喜欢的选择，并不总是导致最好的结果。
亚当•斯密(Adam Smith)认为，个人驱动的行为应该导致最优结果。

A set of decisions where neither player wishes to change their decision

It is a stable end to a game
It is not a ways the best outcome for everyone
It is the "predicted outcome" of the game
一组玩家都不想改变自己决定的决策
这是一场稳定的比赛
这对每个人来说都不是最好的结果
这是游戏的“预测结果”
The prisoner’s dilemma
One overarching model of international politics for realists
Suggests competition dominates international politics
Suggests cooperation is very difficult or impossible to sustain
现实主义者的国际政治总体模式
表明竞争主导了国际政治
表示合作很难或不可能维持下去

5.4
Rationality, heuristics, and biases 理性，启发式和偏见
Nash equilibrium (a stable outcome of a game

E.g. Roommates meet

Recently, Andrea and Dianna moved in to the same room in APU house. They don't know each
other very well, but would like to know more about each other. Andrea is a very active person
and enjoys outdoor sports very much. Dianna, though, really enjoys the arts, such as concerts,
movies, and museums.
They decided that on Friday, they want to go out, just the two of them, so that they can be a bit
better friends. They look around on the Internet and after talking a bit decided there are two
possible activities, going to see a Japanese art film or going to a Oita Heat Devil's basketball
game. The cost of attending the events, including transportation and ticket prices are the same.

AP House events
John, a student in APU house found a flyer in his mailbox. The flyer discusses an event coming up
with the other students at APU house organized by Dianna and Andrea. There are two options for
John, and he is trying to decide which to do. Diana is organizing a gathering of all the students in
AP-House to break a record of the most international students in one location.There are 84
countries represented at AP-house and the record is 83. John is the only American, so he knows
this will only work if he goes, but it also won't work if other students do not attend. The second
option is to attend a cultural gift exchange. The gift-exchange allows students to share home-
made goods from their own cultures. John has a home made box from red-wood trees in
northern California, his hometown he can use for this event. The costs of the participation are
the same, but if they break the record they will get into the newspaper and get a lot of
recognition from APU. Both events are occurring at the same time.

More roommate Trouble

Dianna and Andrea have been living together for a almost a year now and have acquired a lot of
clothes and other goods in Japan.They are running out of space in their small common room in
Ap-House. There is only one drawer left that is unused and they both want to use the space for
their items. Every day they argue and fight about who should get to use the space.

Last piece of cake

Two students, Jane and John, arrive back to AP-House common room and find that the other
students had a big party. Jane and John were studying and didn't realise the party was
happening. They both really love parties and are really excited because they love sweet food and
haven't eaten all day! They look around and find only one piece of cake left. John and Jane both
notice that there is only one piece of cake at the same time as they stand on opposite sides of the
table.

Both of them stare at each other and think for a moment. Each person really wants that cake.
They are both SUPER HUNGRY! But there really isn't enough to share. If they both try to grab it,
they know they will probably destroy the cake and no one is going to get it. If they both walk
away, someone else will probably get the cake.

So far...
Reviewed common game theoretic models of international problems (and how to solve them).
Discussed how to model international problems
Discussed treaties as a potential solution to international problems
Now we shift to substantive areas...
Security, Economics, Environment, Human rights
回顾了国际问题的常见博弈论模型(以及如何解决它们)。
讨论了如何模拟国际问题
讨论了作为国际问题潜在解决方案的条约
现在我们转向实质性领域……
安全、经济、环境、人权

Security problems
What are the most important security problems today?
Primary security issues：主要安全问题:
Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation 防止大规模杀伤性武器扩散
Small Arms Weapons Proliferation 小武器扩散
International Terrorism 国际恐怖主义
War and Other Interstate Conflict 战争和其他国家间冲突
Space Weaponry 太空武器

Secondary security issue 次要安全问题:

Resources scarcity 资源的稀缺性
Refugee populations 难民的数量
Failed states 失败的国家
Computer and informational influence 计算机和信息的影响

Tertiary security issues:

Environmental Degradation 环境恶化
Human Rights Abuses 侵犯人权行为
Human Security (health, education, etc.)人类安全(健康、教育等)
Non-Democratic Governance 民主治理
Global Disaster or Health Pandemics 全球灾难或健康大流行

Facts about nuclear weapons 关于核武器的事实

1939 - Einstein and Szilard, escaped from Europe and began assisting with the development of
the Atom bomb
First tested on July 16, 1945 (after Germany surrendered)
Used on Japan twice in Hiroshima and Nagasaki - 54% of population dead
1939 年的今天，爱因斯坦和西拉德逃离欧洲，开始协助研制原子弹
第一次测试是在 1945 年 7 月 16 日(德国投降后)
在日本广岛和长崎使用了两次，54%的人口死亡

Weapons Proliferation 武器扩散

US and USSR both stated their intention to stop all nuclear weapons production under
international regulations
Both US and USSR continued to develop nuclear weapons
1954 US and USSR tested H-bombs
By 1961, UK and France tested bombs
1964 China tested its first bomb
1974 India tested its first bomb
1998 Pakistan conducted a nuclear bomb test
North Korea tested a bomb in 2006
美国和苏联都表示，他们打算根据国际规定停止所有核武器的生产
美国和苏联都继续发展核武器
1954 年，美国和苏联试验氢弹
到 1961 年，英国和法国进行了原子弹试验
1964 年，中国测试了第一枚核弹
1974 年，印度测试了第一枚核弹
1998 年，巴基斯坦进行核弹试验
2006 年，朝鲜进行了一次核弹试验

Nuclear Weapons Programs 核武器计划

Brazil, Argentina, South Korea, and Taiwan had programs but since stopped
Libya renounced nuclear weapons in 2003
Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine inherited nuclear weapons, but returned them to Russia.
Iraq before 1991 actively pursued WMD
Syria and Iran may be continuing a nuclear program
巴西、阿根廷、韩国和台湾都有项目，但后来停止了
利比亚在 2003 年宣布放弃核武器
白俄罗斯、哈萨克斯坦和乌克兰继承了核武器，但将它们归还给了俄罗斯。
伊拉克在 1991 年之前积极发展大规模杀伤性武器
叙利亚和伊朗可能会继续他们的核项目
Model nuclear arms control
Who are the actors?行为者是谁?
US and USSR 美国和苏联
What are the choices?有什么选择?
Reduce nuclear weapons or make more.减少或制造更多核武器

For each country, what are preferences? (一种穷途困境)

1. have lots of nukes, opponent has none 有很多核武器，对手没有
2. Both have no nukes 两国都没有核武器
3. Both have some nukes 两国都有核武器
4. You have none, but opponent has many 你一无所有，但对手有很多

Nuclear Arms theory

Why do states want nuclear weapons?为什么国家想要核武器?
Domestic Politics (Bureaucracy or Political Power)国内政治(官僚主义或政治权力)
Prestige (symbol of modernity)威望(现代性的象征)
Deterrence and Defense (security)威慑与防御(保安)

Deterrence 威慑
Deterrence implies that states cannot attack each other because of a nuclear response.
Each state requires a secure second strike arsenal
Few weapons are enough for a deterrent force (China maintains only 180 weapons)
威慑意味着国家之间不能因为核反应而互相攻击。
每个国家都需要一个安全的二次打击武器库
很少有武器足以构成威慑力量(中国只有 180 件武器)

Arms Race 军备竞赛

Based on the security dilemma 基于安全困境
Increases in arms makes others insecure 军备的增加使其他国家不安全
Even when arms are defensive like nuclear weapons.
Others respond to increase nuclear weapons
即使武器是防御性的，比如核武器
其他国家则回应增加核武器
Nukes in DPRK 朝鲜核问题
DPRK is ruled by a dictatorship
Dictators are most concerned with maintaining power
Most of the country is poor and starving
DPRK potentially threatened by US and South Korea
朝鲜被独裁统治
独裁者最关心的是维持权力
这个国家的大部分地区都处于贫困和饥饿之中
朝鲜可能受到美国和韩国的威胁

Why does DPRK want nukes?朝鲜为什么想要核武器?

Security from US?
Invasion unlikely - maybe impossible
Sell technology
Big military is expensive to run
Get attention- increase aid
来自美国的安全?
入侵不太可能——也许不可能
销售技术
庞大的军队运营成本高昂
获得关注——增加援助

Korean People's Army（Very Expensive）朝鲜人民军(非常昂贵)

4th Largest standing military in the world
China - USA - India - DPRK - Russia
Most militarized country in the world
20% of men 17-54 are in military
Over 1 Million active, 4.8 M in reserve
世界上第四大常备军队
中国-美国-印度-朝鲜-俄罗斯
世界上最军事化的国家
17-54 岁的男性中有 20%是军人
超过 100 万活跃用户，480 万储备用户

Consequences of a nuclear DPRK?朝鲜拥有核武器的后果?

Extort or Blackmail South Korea
Arms race in Asia (Japan especially)
Export and sell nuclear tech to non-states and states
Increase power across Asia with missile upgrades
勒索或勒索韩国
亚洲军备竞赛(尤其是日本)
向非国家和国家出口和销售核技术
通过升级导弹增强在亚洲的实力