Proceeding 1st International Conference of Economic Studies (ICOES) 2018

The Effect of the Export Value of North Sumatera in Japan and

United States to the Economic Growth of North Sumatera
Iskandar Muda 1) &Tengku Erry Nuradi 2)
1
Accounting Department – Faculty of Economics and Business,
Universitas Sumatera Utara, Medan, Indonesia
Telephone +62(61) 8214545. Postal Code 20155
iskandar1@usu.ac.id
www.usu.ac.id
2
Regional Planning, Universitas Sumatera Utara, Medan, Indonesia
Phone +62618214545. Postal Code 20155
tengkuerry@usu.ac.id
www.usu.ac.id

Keywords : Export Value, Clothing, Japan, United States, Economic Growth.

Abstract : The purpose of this research is aim to know the Effect of The Export Value of The North Sumatera in Japan
and United States to The Economic Growth of North Sumatera. The method of research using a causal
research design. The data used are secondary data sourced from Statistics Agency of North Sumatera
Province. The method of analysis used in this research is SEM method using Smart PLS software. The
results show that The Export Value of The North Sumatera to the United States influence to the Economic
Growth of North Sumatera.

1. INTRODUCTION produces palm oil with many derivative

The existence of export activities it is
clear will make the relationship between
countries become better. With so many
meetings between countries it will further
strengthen the relationships of each country
that work together. Exports will increase the
country's foreign exchange, creating jobs
both of which are very helpful to the
Indonesian economy that will improve the
welfare of the people. If cooperation is done
almost on all areas, then the better the
economy. Export activities will surely
expand production, which was only in the
production into the country with the exports
it will be marketed abroad resulting in
widespread production. When exporting a
product, the exported product will directly
compete and if the product has distinctive
characteristics with other countries then the
product will become known. It would be
easy to introduce domestic products abroad
if our products do not exist in the country,
then our products will be the only product in
the country (Nugroho, 2017; Nurhayati,
2017; Safuan, 2017; Khaliqi et al., 2018;
Muda and Hutapea, 2018; Muda and
Naibaho, 2018; Muda et al., 2018b; Yi, 2018
& Sabri et al., 2018). Each country has
different natural conditions, thus causing the
product of each country is also different.
North Sumatra with natural potential that
products then opens export opportunities to
various countries. Each country has different
natural resources and human resource
capabilities. Indonesia's export performance
in 2013 is not expected to recover fully after
the trade balance deficit several times
throughout 2012. Moreover, the recovery of
the European Union and the United States
crisis shows a slow trend of improvement
plus the continued decline in commodity
prices in the international market. Limited
supply in a country, import activities were
initiated. Import export activities can also
grow harmonious relations among nations.
With this international trade, many parties
are involved and both benefit, both the profit
of the sale and the benefits of the fulfillment
of needs. Imported exports are also one of
the major jobs for businessmen. The natural
state of North Sumatra can not produce
wheat and America cannot produce palm oil.
Trade between nations is able to overcome
this problem (Tampubolon et al., 2017;
Sihombing et al., 2017; Tarmizi et al., 2017;
Sirouzilam et al., 2017; Muda and Nurlina,
2018a & 2018b; Kesuma et al., 2018a &
2018b; Muda et al., 2018a; 2018i and Sabri
et al., 2018). Interstate trade allows
Indonesia to obtain wheat and America to
obtain palm oil. Trade interstate will be able
to bring goods that can not be produced in

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 Proceeding 1st International Conference of Economic Studies (ICOES) 2018

the country. For example Indonesia has not Japan, US companies are among the second
been able to produce heavy machinery. largest investment in Southeast Asia (Rifin,
Therefore, Indonesia trade with USA and 2017; Buyung et al., 2017; Permatasari and
Japan in the procurement of these tools. Silitonga, 2017; Oktavilia et al., 2017 &
Economically, Southeast Asia is a high- Astini and Tafiprios, 2017). Much of the
volume trading part of Japan, Korea, Taiwan wealth of the United States relies on
and Australia, including oil imports. multinational companies that also have
Southeast Asia is very large population significant interests in Southeast Asia.
automatically a vast market not only for Economic cooperation with the United
products but also for the US service States continues to increase. Although in its
industry. Southeast Asia is an export partner development foreign investment in this
and a partner of US imports. In addition, region is generally somewhat behind
Southeast Asia is also a destination for compared to East Asia (Adam et al., 2017 &
investment. Southeast Asia is an important Simanjuntak et al., 2017). But in some
US export destination after China and Japan sectors, both economically, politically and
in the Pacific region. But US exports to strategically, Southeast Asia remains
Southeast Asia declined by about 20% as the important. Southeast Asia is a potential
region was experiencing a financial crisis, market for products and services industries,
but trade was again taken into account as and as a key area of important natural
Southeast Asia began to recover from the resources, including oil and natural gas. One
crisis. Export-import activities of the United of the other important investment sectors in
States with ASEAN countries did experience Southeast Asia is the natural resources.
a decrease in volume between 1997-1999 ASEAN countries are collectively an area of
due to the crisis experienced by this region. great energy and natural resources of the
But slowly shows an increase between 2000- world, such as tin, copper, gold, and
2001. However, the events of September 11, renewable resources such as palm oil,
2001 again disrupted the stability of the rubber, coffee, and timber. The trade graph
world's economic wheels, so that trade of USA and Japan with North Sumatra
cooperation again declined in 2002. After Province is in Figure 1 below:

The Export Value of The North Sumatera to The Japan and United States

600,000
556,473 543,002
515,421 520,399
500,000 498,320
471,668 473,159 483,562
441,976 449,535446,450460,308
400,000 395,822 382,941
372,942

300,000 311,155
279,559288,321 278,648
255,233
245,456 235,951251,049 235,423
200,000 215,690200,114223,549205,053201,606230,760

100,000
79,008
44,562
-
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Japan United States America

Figure 1. The Export Value of The North Sumatera in Japan and United States

Based on Figure shows North Sumatra in 2014-2015 the value of exports to the
Province Exports higher value and volume United States continues to increase and
of transactions in the period 2000-2013 decreased exports to Japan.
higher to Japan than the United States. But
2. Material and Methods

2
 Proceeding 1st International Conference of Economic Studies (ICOES) 2018
The type of research used in this study is a
comperative causal research which is a research with
the characteristics of the problem of causality
between two variables or more. Comparative causal
studies usually involve two or more groups and one
independent variable (Lubis et al., 2017; Muda et al.,
2017; Syahyunan et al., 2017; Handoko et al., 2017;
Ferine et al., 2017; Erlina et al., 2017a, 2017b,
Marhayanie et al., 2017; Situmorang et al., 2017;
Nasir et al., 2017; Muda and Windari, 2018; Muda
and Hasibuan, 2018 & Pohan et al., 2018).
Comparative-causal studies are suatau research
conducted to illustrate the relationship scheme and
the deeper influence of two or more facts and
properties of the object under investigation. This
study aims to determine the cause or reason for
differences in the behavior or status of individual
groups (Dalimunthe et al., 2017; Hutagalung et al.,
2017; Achmad et al, 2017; Badaruddin et al., 2017 &
Muda et al., 2018d). This causal-comparative study is
a follow-up of correlational studies. If a correlational
study describes the degree of relationship between
two or more facts and properties of the object under
study, then a causal-comparative study describes such
a causal relationship. Type of data is Secondary Data
from North Sumatera In Figures by Central Bureau of
Statistics 1999-2015. This study was tested with
SmartPLS. SmartPLS uses a bootstraping or
randomly multiplied method. Therefore assumption
of normality will not be a problem for PLS. Besides
being related to data normality, by doing
bootstrapping the PLS does not require a minimum
number of samples. Research with small samples can
still use PLS
3. Result and Discussion
3.1. Result
3.1.1. Evaluation of Structural Model
In the implementation used two evaluation
of assessment model that is Assessing Outer Model or
Measurement Model by using test of convergent
validity, discriminant validity, composite reliability,
and Average Variance Extracted. And Assess the
Structural Model or Inner Model by using R-squared
(R2) test and the path coefficient estimation test. PLS
can be used to determine the complexity of the
relationships of other constants and constants, as well
as the relationship of a const and its indicators. PLS is
defined by two equations, ie inner mode and outer
model. Inner model determines the specification of
the relationship between the constants and other
constants, whereas the outer model determines the
specification of the relationship between the constants
and the indicators. PLS can work on the model of its
constituent relationship and its reflective and
3
formative indicators, whereas SEM as reflective
relationships only. Inner model evaluation through
the bootsraping menu also generates t statistics values
that will be used to test the hypothesis. The criteria
are t statistic > 1.66 (Marhayanie et al., 2017; Muda
et al., 2018c; 2018e; 2018f; 2018g & 2018h). If the
value of tcount < ttable then Ho accepted and when the
value of tcount > t table then Ho is rejected which means
that the variable in question there is influence which
is significant (Nurlina et al., 2017; Muda, 2018a;
2018b & 2018c). The significance test aims to find
out how big influence of independent variable to
dependent variable. The significance test on the PLS
method, the independent variable in question is the
exogenous latent variable and the dependent variable
is the endogenous latent variable. Estimation value
for path relation in inner model is used to know the
significance of the relationships between latent
variables. This means that the independent variables
tested have an effect significantly to the dependent
variable. The result of T-statistics value in the table
path coefficients is presented in the following figure:
Figure 2. Overall Model with Coefecient
The effect test can be seen in the following Table:
Table 1. The result of Bootsraping
Standa
rd T P
Deviati Statistics Values
on
Japan -> Economic
0,248 1,266 0,206
Growth
United States ->
0,299 2,721 0,007
Economic Growth
Based on the above Table produces coefficient of
0.005, smaller than α = 5% then the decision of
hypothesis testing reject H0 and accept the hypothesis
Ha (Erlina et al., 2017b). In the variant-based PLS-
Path Modeling, this model consists of an Outer model
(measurement model) and an structural model. Thus
the model evaluation on the Smart-PLS also consists
of two stages of outer model evaluation and Inner
Model. The important thing to consider in using
Smart-PLS is the absence of a statistical criterion
 Proceeding 1st International Conference of Economic Studies (ICOES) 2018
capable of assessing the overall model so that
researchers are unable to perform inference analysis
to test the feasibility of the model. Alternatively,
nonparametric tests through re-sampling methods
such as Jackknifing and Bootstrapping can be used to
estimate a model produced. The results show that The
Export Value of The North Sumatera to the United
States influence to the Economic Growth and while
the exporting variables to Japan have not influence.
In addition to hypothesis testing through the
bootsrapping menu that produces T-statistics, inner
model evaluation is also done by reviewing the R-
Square value (Muda et al., 2017). The R-square value
generated from the inner model evaluation is
presented in the following Table:
Table 2. R-Square Value
Original Sample 2.5 97.
Sample (O) Mean (M) % 5%
Economic 0,2 0,8
0,658 0,657
Growth 13 65
The variation of Adjusted R-Square value of
65.70 %. The results show that The Export Value of
The North Sumatera to the United States is influence
to the Economic Growth. In recommendation of
increasing export to USA by Small and Medium
Enterprises, government support is needed in the
process of identifying potential business actors in
exporting; train and prepare identified business
actors; connecting business actors with business
actors in the country of export destination; and
provide full support to business actors after finding
such export opportunities. It is very important for the
government of North Sumatra Province to be able to
increase exports and diversify export markets, given
the relatively limited export market of North Sumatra.
This is seen in the factors driving North Sumatera
exports in the last period is the same product that is
sold to the same market. One of the factors that
hamper export performance is promotion and
marketing. Therefore, export diversification needs to
be supported with strong marketing and promotion
(Tumober, 2017; Co, 2017; Chung, 2017; Bakari,
2017; Cornot, 2017; Tran, 2017 & Phisalaphong et
al., 2017). Interstate trade allows Indonesian
exporters to sell goods to overseas communities. This
transaction can increase the country's foreign
exchange earnings. Thus, the wealth of the state
increases because foreign exchange is one source of
state revenue. Foreign exchange is one important
factor that can move the wheels of a country's
economy, especially the international economy of a
country (Fernando et al., 2017; Yoshimatsu, 2017;
Nesti and Tan, 2017; Khaliqi et al., 2018 & Yi,
2018). The benefit of foreign exchange, all import
4
export process, service provision, and various
economic activities related to the international world
and friendly countries will be more smoothly, and can
provide important economic benefits.
4. Conclusions
The results show that The Export Value of The
North Sumatera in United States to The North
Sumatera influence to the Economic Growth. This
study was conducted in 2 countries originating from
Japan and USA. Future research should be observed
from other continents.
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