NATIONAL ECONOMICS UNIVERSITY

SCHOOL OF BANKING AND FINANCE

-----------------

GROUP ASSIGNMENT
COURSE: RISK MANAGEMENT

TOPIC: EXCHANGE RATE RISK MANAGEMENT

Group 2:
1. Nguyen Phuong Anh 11200243
2. Pham My Anh 11200333
3. Phan Thanh Hang 11201343
4. Tran Ha Linh 11202288
5. Dao Phuong Nhi 11202966
6. Bui Lan Phuong 11203139

Hanoi, 9/2023
 TABLE OF CONTENTS
Introduction .................................................................................................................. 2
A. Theories: Financial Institution Management ....................................................... 3
1. Definition of exchange rate risk .............................................................................. 3
2. What exchange rate fluctuation might cause? ......................................................... 3
3. The importance of exchange rate risk management ................................................ 4
4. Some risk management methods ............................................................................. 4
B. The reality ................................................................................................................. 5
I. Exchange rate risk over the world ........................................................................... 5
1. Pound (September 27, 2022) ............................................................................. 5
2. Yen (August 14, 2023)....................................................................................... 7
3. Ruble .................................................................................................................. 9
II. The exchange rate risk management in Vietnam ................................................. 12
Conclusion ................................................................................................................... 16
References.................................................................................................................... 17

1
 INTRODUCTION
Managing exchange rate risk is crucial for all countries when dealing with foreign
currencies. Currency risk hedging strategies involve reducing this risk and demanding
a comprehension of how fluctuations in exchange rates can impact the operations of
economic entities, along with the methods to address resulting risk issues. Nevertheless,
choosing the right hedging strategy can be challenging due to the complexities of
accurately assessing current risk exposure and determining the optimal level of risk to
be managed.

The paper is organized as follows: In Section A, we present theoretical content,

including definitions, impacts, and methods of exchange rate risk management. In
Section B, we provide recent noteworthy information regarding exchange rate risk on a
global scale as well as within Vietnam. Specific foreign currencies mentioned include
the British Pound, Yen, and Ruble. Particularly, we delve deeper into Russia's policies.
Moreover, in response to the fluctuations in the global financial market, Vietnam has
made efforts to implement appropriate policies aimed at stabilizing exchange rates.

2
A. THEORIES: FINANCIAL INSTITUTION MANAGEMENT
1. Definition of exchange rate risk
Exchange rate risk: The possible direct loss (as a result of an unhedged exposure)
or indirect loss in the firm’s cash flows, assets and liabilities, net profit, and in turn, its
stock market value from an exchange rate move. (IMF)
For example, a Vietnamese importer plans their business at an exchange rate of 1
USD = 23,450 VND, with a profit margin of 15% for the import transaction. However,
at the time of payment, if the exchange rate increases by 3% compared to the plan, the
exchange rate has a negative impact on the business outcome, causing the profit margin
to decrease from 15% to 12%. Conversely, if at the time of payment, the exchange rate
decreases by 3% compared to the plan, the exchange rate has a positive impact on the
business outcome, causing the profit margin to increase from 15% to 18%.
2. What exchange rate fluctuation might cause?
Since firms regularly trade with firms operating in countries with different
currencies and may operate internationally themselves, it is essential to understand the
impact that foreign exchange rate changes can have on the business.
Types of exchange rate risk:
 Transaction risk:
o The risk that the exchange rate changes between the date of a specific
export/import and the related receipt/payment of foreign currency.
o This is a real risk which can be effectively hedged using derivatives.
 Translation risk:
o Assets and liabilities of overseas subsidiaries must be translated into the
reporting currency of the parent prior to consolidation into the group financial
statements.
o This creates potentially large currency translation gains/losses - However, these
are simply caused by accounting rules and do not reflect cash gains/losses.
 Economic risk:
o The risk that cash flows will be affected by long-term exchange rate movements.
o For example, an exporter’s cash flows will be damaged if its home currency
tends to appreciate over time.

3
 o This is a real risk but cannot be effectively hedged using financial instruments
as the price of currency in the derivatives markets follows the same long-term
trend as in the spot market.
3. The importance of exchange rate risk management
“All of life is the management of risk, not its elimination.” - Walter Wriston, former
chairman of Citicorp.
Measuring and managing exchange rate risk exposure is of utmost importance for
reducing a firm’s vulnerabilities from major exchange rate movements. The world and
Vietnam have witnessed constant currency fluctuations, which creates real uncertainty
for businesses. The value of incoming and outgoing funds could see regular changes
leading to unpredictable income. The market also faces adverse effects, becoming
volatile and impacting both domestic and foreign trade, foreign direct investment,
portfolio investment, currency lending, and borrowing. This causes a drag on the
economy over the long term, as entire industries are rendered noncompetitive and
operations of economic agents are detrimentally affected.
As a result, businesses are becoming more aware of currency risk and are looking
for FX risk management strategies.
4. Some risk management methods
 Apply the solution of borrowing in this foreign currency type but repay in a more
stable foreign currency with a predetermined exchange rate in the credit contract.
 Diversify foreign currency types in reserves and payments, limiting reliance on a
single foreign currency.
 Utilize techniques to predict exchange rates: Technical analysis and fundamental
analysis.
 Employ derivative instruments to hedge exchange rate risks, such as forward
contracts, options, currency swaps, and futures contracts.
 Hedge exchange rate risks by investing in hedging assets: The simplest solution is
to invest in assets that are risk-protected abroad, such as risk-protected exchange-
traded funds (ETFs).

4
 Transfer exchange rate risks to insurance agencies: The bank bears insurance
premiums, and when risks arise, the insurance agency compensates the losses for
the bank.
B. THE REALITY
I. Exchange rate risk over the world
1. Pound (September 27, 2022)
a. Context
In 2022, amid chaos including the war in Ukraine, rising prices, and China's
blockade of many provinces and cities to prevent and combat COVID, sharp
fluctuations in some of the world's main currencies are creating new uncertainty for the
global economic outlook.
b. Why did the pound in free fall?
On September 25, the British pound fell to a record low against the US dollar (USD)
as investors rushed to sell money and government bonds following a major vote of no
confidence in the plan economic policy of new Prime Minister Liz Truss, including
large tax cuts and a sharp increase in government borrowing. Truss’s clear economic
priority is to cut taxes, a move she insists will reboot a stalled economy and help people
with soaring energy bills. She has promised to reverse the recent increase in national
insurance and to cancel a scheduled rise in corporation tax, at a combined cost of about
£30bn a year. Truss’s team has also mooted the idea of slashing VAT by 5% or cutting
income tax to help household budgets.
While Truss has said her plans would be paid for by fiscal headroom and delaying
the repayment of Covid-related debts, critics have argued she will need to borrow
considerable sums, at potentially expensive rates, at some cost to the economy. One
option could be to expand a windfall tax on energy firms, but Truss has said she dislikes
this.
There is also considerable scepticism about a tax cut-based response to the energy
costs crisis, which would disproportionately benefit high earners and do nothing for
those reliant on pensions or benefits. Truss has not ruled out more direct help over
energy bills, but has refused to say explicity what this might be, and talked about

5
her distaste for “handouts”. It is a position that is about to be tested against economic
reality.
While Britain's tax plans were the initial cause of the pound's free fall, economists
say investor confidence in the British economy has been waning for an economic
downturn in the United Kingdom, due to Brexit, high inflation, and rising energy prices.

The British pound depreciated sharply against the US dollar in September 2022,
falling to 1.035 US dollars, a record low. The British pound at one point fell to as low
as $1.0325, surpassing the previous record low reached in 1985, before partially
recovering its value.
The sharp drop in the value of the pound suggests investors are concerned about
Britain's ability to manage too much debt, especially as rising interest rates make it
much more expensive to borrow.
c. Effect
The devaluation of the British pound has a significant impact on the British
economy. It increases import costs, reducing the competitiveness of British businesses
in the global market. In addition, it also reduces the value of British people's assets,
reducing their purchasing power.
Some specific impacts of the devalued British pound:
 Rising import costs: Due to the devaluation of the British pound, British businesses
have to pay more to import goods and services from abroad. This increases the
prices of domestic goods and services, reducing consumer purchasing power.

6
 Reduced competitiveness of British businesses: British businesses face higher
import costs, which reduces their competitive advantage over foreign businesses.
This could lead to UK businesses losing market share and jobs.
 Decreased value of assets of British people: British people whose assets are
denominated in sterling will lose value when the pound depreciates. This could
reduce their purchasing power and weaken their confidence in the economy.
The British government has taken a number of measures to address the devaluation
of the British pound. For example, the government has cut interest rates and increased
investment in the economy. However, these measures are still not enough to prevent the
depreciation of the British pound.
2. Yen (August 14, 2023)
a. Context
The global economic recovery from the COVID-19 shocks.
The complicated and prolonged Russia-Ukraine war has caused political and
economic instability in the world, increasing inflation, rising commodity prices, and
disrupting supply chains. This has affected the production and business activities of
enterprises, especially those that depend on imported input materials. Adding to the
difficulties of poor resources, Japan is the recent devaluation of the yen.
b. Reason
The yen's recent weakness is largely due to the divergence in monetary policy
between Japan and its US and European counterparts. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has
maintained its ultra-loose monetary policy, while other major central banks, including
the US Federal Reserve (Fed), have raised interest rates sharply to combat inflation.
The low yields of Japanese government bonds relative to those of other economies,
especially the US and Europe, have made the yen an easy target for short sellers. The
wide gap between interest rates in Japan and in the US has led to a prolonged weakening
of the yen against the dollar.

7
 The yen has depreciated by about 20% since the Fed began its rate hike campaign
in March last year to combat the escalation of inflation, while the BOJ persisted with
ultra-loose monetary policy to stimulate. Inflation and growth in the Japanese economy.
c. Effect
The depreciation of the Yen has a significant impact on the economy of Japan and
other countries.
For Japan, the depreciation of the yen reduces the value of its exports, making it
difficult for exporters to compete with foreign rivals. At the same time, the depreciation
of the yen also increases the cost of Japanese imports, causing domestic inflation to
soar.
Some specific effects of the yen devaluation:
 Impact on exports: The depreciation of the yen makes Japanese exports cheaper,
helping to increase the competitiveness of Japanese exporters in the international
market. However, the depreciation of the yen also reduces the profits of Japanese
exporters, because the selling price of exported products does not increase in
proportion to the devaluation of the yen.
 Impact on imports: The weakening of the Japanese yen has made imported goods
more expensive in Japan, increasing the country's import costs. This could lead to
higher inflation in Japan.

8
 Impact on investment: The depreciation of the yen reduces the value of assets of
foreign investors in Japan, making them more cautious in investing in the country.
This could negatively affect Japan's business activities and economic growth.
 Impact on other countries' currencies: The depreciation of the yen increases the
value of other countries' currencies, giving these countries' exporters a more
competitive advantage. However, a devaluation of the yen can also reduce the value
of assets of foreign investors in other countries, making them more cautious in
investing in these countries.
For other countries, the depreciation of the yen increases the value of the local
currency, giving the exporters of these countries a more competitive advantage.
However, the depreciation of the yen also reduces the value of assets of foreign
investors in Japan, making them more cautious in investing in the country.
According to experts' forecasts, the yen may continue to depreciate in the near
future, if the BOJ continues to maintain its super-loose monetary policy. This will have
a negative impact on the Japanese economy and other countries
3. Ruble
a. Context of the world economic situation
The World Bank (WB) believes that the global economy remains precarious in the
context of the prolonged impact of overlapping negative shocks such as the Covid-19
pandemic and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and a tighter monetary policy to
curb inflation.

Figure 1: Global growth assessment in 2022 and forecast for 2023 of international organizations.

9
 Global merchandise trade decline: WTO reported a 1.7% growth in global
merchandise trade in 2023, despite a decline in the fourth quarter of 2022. The outlook
for the global economy is improving, but trade expansion is expected to remain below
average due to the heavy impact of the on-going war between Russia – Ukraine, high
rate of inflation, the tightening of monetary policy and financial instability.
Energy and commodities prices tend to fall: WB states that after increasing in April
2023, most commodities prices reversed to decrease in May 2023. Brent crude oil prices
rose to around $80/barrel in April 2023 following OPEC+’s announcement of a 1.66
million barrel/day production cut, but soon fell below $70/barrel in May 2023.
Similarly, many metal prices increased at the beginning of the year due to optimism
about Chinese demand, but have since decreased although still above the 2015-2019
average.
b. Reasons for the depreciation of the Ruble
Russia is selling less and importing more (as seen by falling revenue from the sale
of oil and natural gas), which implies that individuals who import items to Russia must
sell rubles in return for foreign currencies.
Because of Western sanctions, including price limitations on crude and oil-based
products like diesel, Russia's trade surplus has decreased significantly.
c. Effects of the devaluation in Russia
 In the short term:
o Increased inflation: The depreciation of the ruble makes imported goods more
expensive, which can lead to inflation.
o Reduced economic growth: The depreciation of the ruble makes it more
expensive for businesses to import raw materials and equipment, which can lead
to reduced economic growth.
o Increased poverty: The depreciation of the ruble reduces the purchasing power
of Russian citizens, which can lead to increased poverty.
 In the long term:
o A weaker ruble could make it more difficult for Russia to repay its foreign debt:
This could lead to a default on Russia's debt, which would have a significant
impact on the Russian economy and its ability to borrow money in the future.

10
 o Decreased investment: Foreign investors may be less likely to invest in Russia
due to the depreciation of the ruble and the uncertainty about the future of the
Russian economy. This could lead to a decrease in investment, which could
further weaken the economy.
d. How the Russian Government manage the situation
The Bank of Russia increased its key rate by 3.5 percentage points to 12% after
announcing a board of directors meeting the previous day as the currency fell.
In order to lessen market volatility, the Bank of Russia announced it would halt
carrying out the foreign exchange purchases required by Russia's budget law on behalf
of the finance ministry.
Instead of enacting capital restrictions, which would restrict the capital flow,
Moscow would draft proposals for exporters to persuade them to give up more of their
overseas earnings in order to support the stabilization of the ruble.

11
II. The exchange rate risk management in Vietnam
Looking back from the beginning of the year until now, although the global
financial market has been volatile, Vietnam's currency and foreign exchange markets
have remained stable. It is believed that the VND is one of the most prominent and
stable currencies in Asia, despite significant changes in the Fed's interest rate hike
expectations, fears of a global recession, as well as disorder in the US banking system.
To be detailed, in 2022, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) approved 4 consecutive 0.75
percentage point rate adjustments before moving to a smaller increase of 0.5% in
December 2022. The fact that Fed raised interest rates was expected, even a very low
increase (0.25 points) was also forecasted. Up to this point, the Fed has raised interest
rates 8 times in a row since March 2022. The US Federal Reserve last decided to raise
the basic interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to a range of 4.5-4.75% in February
2023. Besides, the Fed signaled that it will raise several more times to fight inflation
and not reduce interest rates in 2023.
After those fluctuations, why does the VND maintain its position?
Recently, the USD has gained strongly in the global financial market thanks to the
support from the fast and strong interest rate hike of the FED. This change makes some
businesses worry about the impact on the domestic exchange rate. However, experts
said that it was the timely administration of the Government and the flexible
coordination between monetary and fiscal policies that helped stabilize the exchange
rate, contributing to the control of inflation.
Externally, although inflation is still persistent, pressure has decreased because the
Fed reduced the amount of interest rate raising in the context of concern about the crisis
of the global financial system.
Domestically, inflation is under control; liquidity improved remarkably thanks to
the relatively positive supply of foreign currency in the past from disbursed FDI
inflows, the recovery of the tourism sector after the pandemic, and the trade balance
continued to be in surplus... Besides, since the beginning of the year, foreign currency
flows from capital sales and disbursement of foreign currency loans have been quite
positive, such as Vietcombank, SHB, SeABank, etc., in turn signing a series of

12
international credit contracts; VPBank completed the sale of capital up to about 1.5
billion USD to foreign partners…
The exchange rate has many supporting factors from the foreign currency supply.
Realized foreign direct investment (FDI) in the first half of 2023 has grown
significantly. According to the General Statistics Office (Ministry of Planning and
Investment), as of June 20, FDI including the total newly registered capital, adjusted
and contributed capital to buy shares, to buy capital contributions of foreign investors
reached more than 13 .43 billion USD.
In addition to the adjusted investment capital, the new investment capital and capital
contribution to buy shares continued to increase more than the same period last year.
To be more detailed, the amount of registered foreign direct investment (FDI)
poured into Vietnam after the first 5 months of the year is 10.86 billion USD, only down
7.3% over the same period last year.
The above figure is relatively positive in the context of shrinking foreign investment
capital flows globally after the FED continuously raised interest rates recently. Notably,
new registered capital also increased sharply by nearly 28% over the same period,
reaching 5.26 billion USD.
The total amount of foreign direct investment (FDI) in April was quite outstanding
with the amount of investment capital through capital contribution and purchasing
shares continuing to increase, mainly thanks to the share purchase project of Japanese
investors in VPBank, with a total deal value of up to 1.5 billion USD
After 5 months, newly granted capital and investment capital through capital
contribution and share purchases both increased, only adjusted capital decreased
compared to the same period last year. Notably, the number of new investment projects
and the number of projects with capital adjustment in 5 months also increased over the
same period, with an increase of 66.4% and 22.8% respectively. The growth rate of the
number of new projects is larger than the growth rate of total investment capital, which
shows that small and medium-sized foreign investors continue to care and believe in
Vietnam's investment environment and make new decisions.
Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh recently signed and promulgated Directive No.
14 on a number of tasks and solutions to improve the efficiency of foreign investment

13
in the new period. In particular, the Prime Minister asked ministries, branches, and
localities to prepare favorable conditions for attracting investment, production, and
business. Those conditions also help to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of state
management of foreign investment; to strengthen inspection, supervision, evaluation,
and promotion of investment activities.
Besides, Vietnam's economy currently maintains a trade surplus, which also
supports the foreign currency supply. On August 1, 2023, the trade balance of goods
had a surplus of 224 million USD. From the beginning of the year to the end of August
15, 2023, the trade balance of goods had a surplus of 16.26 billion USD. Specifically,
the total export value of Vietnam reached 209.43 billion USD, while the total import
value of the whole country reached 193.18 billion USD.
Increasing foreign exchange reserves gives the State Bank of Viet Nam (SBV) more
room to operate flexibly and stabilize the exchange rate, improve the value of the dong,
and create confidence in foreign investors... Especially in the current context of strong
market fluctuations, having a thicker "buffer" helps the SBV to be more proactive and
aggressive in intervening in the foreign exchange market when necessary.
Moreover, the pressure has also decreased thanks to the flexible and adaptive
exchange rate policy of the government. The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has just
decided to adjust the exchange rate band for USD/VND from +/-3% to +/-5% (effective
from October 17, 2022). According to experts, the SBV's decision to widen the
exchange rate band is a necessary and reasonable step in the current context,
demonstrating flexibility and proactiveness in management to adapt to the unpredictable
developments of the international market. With this move, the SBV will not have to sell
foreign exchange to intervene in the market, thereby saving foreign exchange reserves.
Each country has its own exchange rate management mechanism. Some countries
choose a fixed exchange rate mechanism, others choose a fully floating exchange rate
mechanism, and others apply a managed floating exchange rate mechanism. Vietnam is
applying a managed floating exchange rate mechanism through two benchmarks: the
central exchange rate and the exchange rate band. The decision to narrow or widen the
exchange rate band, or to raise the central exchange rate, is a technical and professional
issue for the SBV in exchange rate management.

14
 On the morning of October 17, 2022, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) issued a
press release announcing that it would adjust the exchange rate band for USD/VND
from +/-3% to +/-5%. This move is intended to allow the SBV to respond more flexibly
to the unpredictable developments of the international market and the ongoing
tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and other central banks
(CBs) around the world. This move means that the ceiling price for USD transactions
at banks could reach nearly 24,800 VND/USD, significantly widening the gap between
VND/USD compared to the beginning of the year. According to the SBV, from the
beginning of 2022 to the present, the Fed and many other major CBs have accelerated
their monetary policy tightening, raising interest rates sharply. The Russia-Ukraine
conflict has also disrupted global supply chains, led to higher oil and commodity prices,
and caused inflation to exceed control levels in many economies. These factors have
caused significant volatility in both international and domestic markets. In response to
this situation, the SBV has proactively and flexibly implemented a range of tools,
solutions, and interventions to maintain the stability and smooth operation of the money
and foreign exchange markets. This has helped to stabilize the macroeconomy, control
inflation, and support the implementation of the goals set out in the National Assembly's
Resolution No. 43/2022/QH15 on fiscal and monetary policies to support the Recovery
and Development Program for the Economy and Society (Resolution No. 43) and the
Government's Resolution No. 11/NQ-CP dated January 30, 2022 on the Recovery and
Development Program for the Economy and Society and the implementation of
Resolution No. 43. In order to be more responsive to the unpredictable developments
of the international market and the continued tightening of monetary policy and interest
rate hikes by the Fed and other CBs around the world, on October 17, 2022, the
Governor of the SBV issued Decision No. 1747/QD-NHNN regulating the spot
exchange rate between the Vietnamese dong and foreign currencies of authorized credit
institutions (ACIs). Accordingly, the exchange rate band for USD/VND was adjusted
from +/-3% to +/-5%.

15
 CONCLUSION
Measuring and controlling exposure to currency risk are crucial tasks for
minimizing a company's vulnerability to significant changes in exchange rates. This
vulnerability primarily arises when a company engages in international operations and
investments, as currency fluctuations can impact profit margins, input sources, output
markets, debt obligations, and asset values. Multinational corporations employ various
hedging strategies tailored to specific types of currency risk. These strategies have
grown increasingly complex as they aim to address transaction, translation, and
economic risks simultaneously. These risks can be harmful to both companies and the
market as a whole. Consequently, there is a growing demand for hedging protection
against these risks, leading to the development of a wider range of financial instruments
by the innovation of the financial industry.
In reality, exchange rate risk persists, is ongoing, and will continue to exist in every
country worldwide, not limited to Vietnam and the three countries mentioned. Today,
major economies such as the United States and Russia have experienced numerous
changes in monetary policies. Furthermore, political, military, and social developments
among nations have grown increasingly complex, exemplified by events like the
Russia-Ukraine conflict and the aftermath of COVID-19. Speaking of the Russia-
Ukraine conflict, tensions have escalated, leading to significant geopolitical and
economic uncertainties. The lasting impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on global
economies has added an additional layer of unpredictability. Consequently, effective
management of exchange rate risk has become ever more critical in this context.

16
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