Population Explosion and

Performance of an
Economy

1. Tanya Lakhmani, BBA Student, Rukmini Devi Institute of Advanced Studies

2. Ms. Anushree Ganguly, Assistant Professor, Rukmini Devi Institute of Advanced Studies
 INTRODUCTION
As of May 17, 2022, there are 1,405,014,412 people living in India. India is the world's second
most populated nation after China. According to current estimates, India will most certainly
surpass China in terms of population by 2027.The rise in population from 2001 to 2011 is
roughly comparable to Pakistan's population, which ranks sixth in the world in terms of
population. India's population has grown 3.35 times since it gained independence.
GDP: In December 2021, India's GDP increased 5.4% YoY after increasing by 8.5% the previous
quarter. Data on India's real GDP growth year over year is available from June 2005 to
December 2021, with an average rate of 7.3%. In June 2021, the data hit an all-time high of
20.3%, while in June 2020, it hit a record low of -23.8%. One of the most contentious issues on
earth is the impact of population explosion on the economy and the impact of population
growth rate on economic development. Numerous ideas demonstrate that an increase in
population has a detrimental impact on a nation's economic development and progress. There
are typically three distinct points of view on how population affects a country's economic
development. One, opposing the beneficial effect on economic growth. Two: defending the
harmful effects of economic growth. Third, they think there is no connection between
population expansion and economic progress.
 LITERATURE REVIEW
(Mason, 2022) In the future decades, global GDP growth may decrease by around 1 percentage point per year,
declining more severely than population growth, according to new estimates of economic flows by age and
population projections. High expenditure on children and elders may put a strain on the living standards of working-
age adults. In many higher income economies, shifting economic life cycles will increase the economic effects of
population ageing; (6) population ageing is also likely to cause public debt, private assets, and maybe productivity
to rise. The national, regional, and international economy will be significantly impacted by population shift.

(Peter, 2019) Using a panel data technique, this study evaluates the effects of population expansion on economic
growth between 1980 and 2015. At both the national and regional levels, there is still considerable debate on how
population growth affects economic growth. The World Development Indicators database provided the annual
secondary data for fifty-three nations that were used in the study. The GDP, population expansion, fertility rate,
crude mortality rate, and inflation rate were used as proxy measures of economic growth. The study concludes and
suggests that while fertility has a negative effect on economic growth, population increase has a beneficial one.

(Peterson, 2017) The relationships between population increase, growth in per capita output, and overall economic
growth during the previous 200 years are mapped out in this article using historical data. High population growth in
low-income countries may hinder their progress, while low population growth in high-income countries is likely to
cause social and economic issues. Although many people oppose it, international migration might assist to correct
these inequities. According to economic evaluations of inequality, there may be a connection between decreased
population growth and minimal migration and rising national and international economic disparity.
 OBJECTIVES
This study will try to throw some light on the different aspects by which the
economy is affected by the population growth.

To study population trends in India.

To study the pattern of growth.
To study the relationship between population and economy.
 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
Time Period- The period of study is 6 YEARS FROM 2015 to 2021. It took 3 months to
complete this study.

Data Collection Tool- This study is based on the secondary data collected from various
sources like research papers, websites, CEIC, articles, reports etc.

Tools and Techniques of Data Collection- Simple mathematical and statistical

treatments like correlation and regression were used to process and analyze the data to
get inferences based on analytical findings. The data was then coded and analyzed by
drawing simple tables, bar charts and suitable statistical tests with help of MS excel.

Analytical Tools- The study is based on descriptive analysis. Accordingly, data,

correlation analysis, regression analysis and graphs have been used for the purpose of
data analysis.
 DATA ANALYSIS
Population

Table 1 Figure 1
The following data shows the rise in population over he years.
 GDP

Table 2

Figure 2
The following data shows the fluctuation in the GDP over the years.
Correlation Analysis

Table 3 Figure 3
We can see the relationship between Population and GDP
through Correlation Analysis.
 Regression Analysis

Figure 4

The following data analysis shows how the GDP is

dependent on the Population Growth.

Figure 5
 FINDINGS
From the data found through different sources we can find out the rapid increase in the
Population growth each year, the increment in the population from 2015 to 2021 shows
the population explosion in the country. We can see the rise in the pace of GDP growth
since 2012 till 2020 and then the sudden fall in the year of 2021 and again the rise in 2022.
The GDP growth rate increased from 2012 to 2020, but then it abruptly decreased in 2021
before increasing once more in 2022. Even in the correlation graph, which depicts the
relationship between population increase and GDP growth, we can detect a slight dip in
2021.However, available per capita income decreases as the population grows. More
children must be fed with the same amount of money as before. It entails higher
consumption costs, a further decline in already low savings, and a concomitant increase in
investment. The economy is changed by the fast-expanding population into one of low
employment and widespread unemployment. The proportion of workers to the total
population rises as the population does. As a result, unemployment and low employment
rates rise as the labour force grows. As a result, there’s a negative impact of the
population explosion in the growth of an economy.
 CONCLUSION
A nation's development depends greatly on its population. It serves both as a means and an end for
economic development. The nation's population is a valuable asset, but if it is not under control, it
can become a liability. In India, the population has beyond its capacity and is now a liability.
Therefore, the issue of India's population growth has proven to be a major obstacle to the
accomplishment of economic planning and development. Population grew by 30.58% over the past
two decades. Although India's GDP has increased rapidly over the past 20 years, overpopulation has
not had a negative impact on it. Although India has the third-largest economy with a GDP (PPP) of
$10.40 trillion, due to the country's rapid population growth, it is still rated 116th in terms of per
capita income and 130th in terms of HDI. The rise of population is having a negative impact on living
standards. Unemployment, food shortages, poor per capita income, issues with capital creation, high
pressure, social issues, economic insecurity, social insecurity, increased pressure on the
environment, and societal instability are all caused by overpopulation. The demographic changes
have a big impact on India's economic planning and development. India is still regarded as a
developing country despite its growing human resource base and wealth of natural resources. India
is still unable to effectively utilise its natural resources for the benefit of the country's expanding
population. Due to inadequate housing, bad living conditions, poor medical treatment, and
malnutrition, poverty is rife throughout India.
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