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ProbabilityIW 311102133 所蓁

SI 4 PLEINEINESNE 4 ) : PIE 1 ) DIE 2 IE 1 ) P ( E 3 IEIME 1 ) PIE 4 IEIME 2 ^ E, ]

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Out of vlmdining 16 ,
8 fi would havenevergoneout

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( 活 ) 1 ( 号) 1 / ( 1 { 11 ≥/ ( 411 {) 1
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) ( 4) 1}) 1 ) 1 号11 年1 ( %)
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1 41 ( 号 / ( 411 )14114 ) ( 号 114 ) 14114 /
= 0 . 0125
3 46 let three prisonersbe
, B
xclcuted
,
A

the that A is
probabiliy
-
jailer refusetosayanyening !

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iailersdy Bwilwalkfrle ; 5 ⼆
3


Uwillovalkfrel 曰
sayjailer :


P 1 A2 ^

} 45
.
PIAr | A , ) = 2
P ( A , ) 3 PAOA , ) > P (
( A) -
, 1

P ( A ,) : P ( A , 1 M ) D (M ) + PIAIFIDIFJ
= α Pm + (1 -
x) Pf

PIAIA 1 ) = P( AIA 1 MM ) PIMIA 1 ) +

PIA 1 A , MF ) PIFI ⽇ 1 )
) 1fr
"

=α pm + ( 1- α

PIA 1 ]
于 P / A 21 A 1 ) 7 DI ⽇]

3 60
4
.

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