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Probability HW3
Probability HW3
:
” ” ” 噩上
! ;)
,
; 丝器⼆
:
-
4
⼀
3 2
12 ! 12 ! ⼀
≥
然
9 : 13
{! ⼆⼀⼆
: “
⼀
13 !3 !
品
19
:
25
3 31 2 et Eibe the
. event that ipersonout of 4
Out of vlmdining 16 ,
8 fi would havenevergoneout
"
。 “ )
( 活 ) 1 ( 号) 1 / ( 1 { 11 ≥/ ( 411 {) 1
=☆
"
。
) ( 4) 1}) 1 ) 1 号11 年1 ( %)
,
"
“
1 41 ( 号 / ( 411 )14114 ) ( 号 114 ) 14114 /
= 0 . 0125
3 46 let three prisonersbe
, B
xclcuted
,
A
the that A is
probabiliy
-
jailer refusetosayanyening !
了
,1
iailersdy Bwilwalkfrle ; 5 ⼆
3
⼀
公
Uwillovalkfrel 曰
sayjailer :
了
晶
P 1 A2 ^
} 45
.
PIAr | A , ) = 2
P ( A , ) 3 PAOA , ) > P (
( A) -
, 1
P ( A ,) : P ( A , 1 M ) D (M ) + PIAIFIDIFJ
= α Pm + (1 -
x) Pf
PIA 1 A , MF ) PIFI ⽇ 1 )
) 1fr
"
=α pm + ( 1- α
PIA 1 ]
于 P / A 21 A 1 ) 7 DI ⽇]
3 60
4
.