WACHEMO UNIVERSITY

SCHOOL OF GRADUATE STUDIES

RESEARCH PROPOSAL ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF
DROUGHT ON RURAL FARMERS LIVELI HOOD AND COPING
STRATEGIES: THE CASE OF SORO WOREDA, HADIYA ZONE,
CENTERAL ETHIOPIA

TAREKEGN ABICHO

College Social Sciences and Humanities

School Geography and Environmental Studies

Program M.A in sustainable natural resource management

Major Advisor HABITAU DAGNE (Ph.D.)

Co-Advisor SOLOMON CHUFAMO (M.A)

October, 2023

Wachemo University, Hosanna

ACRONOMYS/ABBREVIATIONS/

BC-Before Christ

CSA – Central Statistic Agency, Ethiopia

DAs – Development Agents

DPPO – Disaster Prevention and Preparedness office

EBDAT-Emergency event database

CRGE-Climate resilient green economy

EPA-Environmental protection authority

FAO - Food and Agricultural Organization

FDRE – Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia

GDP-Gross domestic product

GTP-Growth and transformation plan

IPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

MoARD-Ministry of agriculture and rural development

MoFED -Ministry of Finance and Economic Development

MoWR-ministry of water resource

NMSA – National Meteorological Service Agency

NAPA- National adaptation program of action

PASDEP-Plan for accelerated and sustainable development to end poverty

PSNP -Productive Safety Net Program

SLM-Sustainable land management

SPSS-Statistical package for social sciences

UNDP- United Nations Development Program

WB -World Bank

WCDP-World Conference on Disaster Prevention

WFP -World Food Program

TABLE of CONTENTS

ACRONOMYS/ABBREVIATIONS/

TABLE of CONTENTS

LIST OF FIGURE

1. INTRODUCTION

1.1. Background of the Study

1.2. Statement of the Problem

1.3. Objectives of the Study

1.3.1. General objectives

1.3.2. Specific objectives

1.4. Research Questions

1.5. S ignificance of the Study

1.6. Delimitation of the Study

2. LITATURE REVIEW

2.1. Theoretical Framework

2.1.1. Concepts and definitions of drought

2.1.2. Definition of key Terms

2.1.3. Causes of drought

2.1.5. Adaptation strategies to impacts of drought

2.1.6. Livelihood strategies and classification

2.1.7. Government policy and strategies on impacts of drought

2.1.8. National adaptation program of action (NAPA)

2.1.9. Climate resilient green economy (CRGE)

2.2. Conceptual Framework

3. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

3.1. Description of Study Area

3.2. Research Design

3.3. Sources of Data

3.4. Sample Size and Sampling Techniques

3.5. Data Collection Instruments

3.5.1. Questionnaire

3.5.2. Interview

3.5.3. Focus group discussion

3.5.4. Observation

3.6. Data processing and Analysis

3.7. Expected outcome

3.8. Ethical Consideration

3.9. Work plan

3.9.1 Budget breakdown

4. REFERENCS

LIST OF TABLES

3.1 distributions of sample households in the study area

3.2. Distribution of work plan activities

3.3. Stationary Expenses

3.4. Supervisor fee and Transport cost

3.5. Personal expense

3.6 Budget summary

LIST OF FIGURE

1: Socio-economic and Environmental Impacts; Drought processes, factors, relationships and impacts.
1. INTRODUCTION

1.1. Background of the Study

Drought has been one of the world’s greatest mysteries and it has continued to have many puzzling
features since the beginning of recorded history. It is one of the worst natural afflictions whose
occurrence is imperceptible and a recurrent climatic phenomenon across the world. It affects humanity
in a number of ways such as causing loss of life, crop failures, food shortages which may lead to famine
in many regions, malnutrition, health issues and mass migration. It also causes huge damage to the
environment and is regarded as a major cause of land degradation, aridity and desertification. The socio-
economic impacts of droughts are witnessed at a range of geographical scales. For instance, individual
families or communities may lose their livelihoods and source of water, subject to acute food shortages
and health issues and the country’s economy may be severely impacted. The available estimates on
drought impacts suggest that, during the period 1900-2013, there were 642 drought events reported
across the world resulting in a huge toll to humanity, killing about 12 million people and affecting over 2
billion (EM-DAT, 2014).

According to different scholars and different organization report suggest that Africa countries are more
affected by impacts of drought due to dependence of rain-fed agriculture for livelihood which is more
climate sensitive sector and more reflected by (IPCC, 2007b).

In Africa drought has had many significant socio-economic impacts on rural farmer’s livelihood and
affects the life of peoples and its trend is increasing in 21th century (IPCC, 2007b). According to
Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT, ) more than 100 million people were affected by drought in
Africa. From Africa continent, Eastern African countries like Burundi, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda,
Tanzania, Rwanda, and Somalia) were among the vulnerable countries to the impacts of drought due to
its dependency on rain-fed agriculture and agriculture is climate sensitive sectors. Feyssa and Gemeda
(2015) also justify that climate change mainly affect the rain-fed agricultural sectors in technological and
economically less developed countries in Africa. Due to drought, by 2100, arid and semi-arid regions of
Africa are expected to expand by 5-8%, or 60-90 million hectares, resulting in agricultural losses of
between 0.4-7% of gross domestic product (GDP) in Northern, Western Central and Southern Africa
(IPCC, 2007).

Now days, most African countries are dealing with a number of socio-economic and environmental
challenges including poverty eradication, minimizing resource degradation, controlling rapid population
growth, and improving low agricultural productivity. From the Africa regions sub-Saharan part of the
region is considered to be the most drought-prone area. This is because of the relatively drier, receiving
much lower rainfall compared with the rest of the region (Sara, 2009).

Ethiopia is one of the sub-Sahara African countries which are highly vulnerable to natural hazards.
Different natural hazards have been recorded in Ethiopia. However, drought has remained the leading
cause of disaster and human suffering in Ethiopia in terms of frequency, area coverage and the number
of people affected. The history of drought in Ethiopia goes back to 250 BC and there had been many
national and localized droughts even before that of the 1970s for which international support was
sought for the first time, which were managed mainly by communities own adaptation strategies.
However, the magnitude, frequency and the impacts of the droughts have increased since mid-70s. The
severity and persistence of the latest droughts has produced a wide range of impacts across the country
(Ibid).

In fact, Agriculture is basic income source of Ethiopian economy which is based on mainly depend on
rain-red agriculture and climate sensitive. This makes the country more vulnerable to impacts of drought
according to this report explanation (MoFED, 2010).

Ethiopia‘s National Meteorological Agency (NMA) identifies drought and flood as the major hazards in
the future as well, with potential negative impacts on agriculture and food security (FDRE 2011).
Agriculture is the backbone of Ethiopia‘s economy, contributing 42% of the GDP and supporting 85% of
employment (FDRE 2011). Agricultural production in Ethiopia is dominated by small-scale subsistence
farmers, and is mainly rain-fed Agriculture, thus highly exposed to climate variability and extremes
events. The dependency of most of the farmers on rain fed agriculture has made the country’s
agricultural economy extremely vulnerable to the adversities of weather and climate extreme events
which is drought (MoFED, 2010).

In addition to this, Low level of adaptive strategies, weak early warning system, low level of socio-
economic development, inadequate infrastructure, lack of institutional capacity, low level of
technological improvement, higher dependency on natural resources make the country more vulnerable
to climatic extreme events like droughts and other challenges. Therefore, effective adaptive strategies
are critical to improve economic and ecological resilience, sustainable agricultural development and will
require action across multiple sectors at all levels (Below et al, 2012).The impacts of past droughts such
as that of the 1972/73, 1984/85 is still fresh in the memories of many Ethiopians. These challenges are
likely to be exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change. Current climate variability is imposing a
significant challenge to Ethiopia by affecting food security, water and energy supply, poverty reduction
and sustainable agricultural development efforts, as well as by causing natural resource degradation and
natural disasters (weldegebriel et al, 2013).

To manage this and like threats from our country at large and promoting effective adaptation strategies
with integration of early warning system enhances farmer’s adaptation to socio-economic impacts of
drought in the study area. In fact, this study create great role and plays a significant task for the local
community in the study area. Therefore, the researcher tries to assess major socio-economic impacts of
drought on rural farmer’s livelihood and effective adaptation strategies in selected study area.

1.2. Statement of the Problem

Drought is a major disaster which causes huge damages to human being, natural environment and
agricultural economy. It is a complex climatic phenomenon, which varies every time in terms of its
onset, intensity, duration and geographical coverage. It is also a form of environmental stress that
originates from a deficiency in precipitation over an extended period of time long enough to cause
moisture deficiency, biotic loss, crop failure, loss of lives both human and bovine and general hardships
(Ngaira, 2004).

Droughts have direct and indirect impacts on rural farmer’s livelihoods it is weather dependent and its
impacts affect not only agriculture, but also the whole economic activity of the area. Direct impacts such
as reduced crop, rangeland, and forest productivity, reduced water levels, increased fire hazard, damage
to wildlife and fish habitat, Increased livestock and wildlife mortality rates, increased insect infestations,
increased plant disease and indirect impact such as I reduced income for farmers and agribusiness, risk
of foreclosures on bank loans to farmers and businesses, who may their assets, increased prices for food
and timber, increased unemployment, reduced tax revenues, increased crime and insecurity.

Agriculture is one of the most vulnerable sectors to impact of drought because of climate sensitivity. The
socio-economic impacts are even stronger in Ethiopia in general and in the study area in particular,
agriculture is truly important for the daily subsistence consumption, and where adaptive strategies in
Ethiopia is low. Though agriculture was taken as a core sector to solve the current appeal challenges and
to bring future sustainable agricultural economy to the country, the sector is recently challenged by
climatic shocks such as prolonged drought, late coming and early stop of rainfall before and after crop
maturity. Agricultural production has been severely affected and there has been a significant reduction
in livestock populations that are the mainstay of subsistence livelihoods (Collier et al., 2008; Ngaira,
2007;Adger et al., 2003).

The capacity of people facing to this hazard may be limited to avoid adverse socio-economic impacts of
drought by shortcomings in government capacity e.g. financial, institutional and political. Ethiopia is also
highly vulnerable to these climatic hazards. Such hazards and associated disasters are not unique
phenomena to Ethiopia, but what makes them unique is the scale of their consequences in terms of loss
of life and damage to properties, livelihoods and to the national economy (Calow et al., 2010; Clarke et
al., 2012).

To assess this challenges government of Ethiopia has undertaken different adaptation strategies to the
socio-economic impacts of drought on rural farmer’s livelihoods in country, which are commonly said to
be drought prone areas even if the degree of intervention or assistance varies. However, currently there
are many areas of the country, which are highly, affected by drought other than areas, which are
historically said to be drought-prone areas. Little attention is given by government and non-government
organizations for such areas despite they have been repeatedly affected by severe drought. Because the
level of information and knowledge on such areas’ vulnerability to drought impact is very low and the
attention of most researcher is towards drought prone areas. Agriculture is Major economic income
source in the woreda and Farmers practices mixed farming task in most parts of kola and woyine-dega
agro ecological regions.

Now days, like in most rural areas of Ethiopia, the Babile Woreda is characterized by heavily fragile
natural resource base, shortage of agricultural land and speedy deforestation which resulted in land
degradation, loss of agricultural products, increase food insecurity and drought in most parts of study
area. Since recent past, farmers in the woreda are facing adverse socio-economic impacts of drought on
their rural farmer’s livelihood. As a result of this, crop and livestock production has decreased and the
woreda has become significantly vulnerable to the socio-economic impacts of drought due to lack of
advanced technology, weak institutional structure and lack of early warning system. In addition to this,
due to the change in the pattern and timing of rain fall, there is change in the cropping pattern of the
study area.

Many socio-economic impacts of drought on rural farmer’s livelihood and adaptation strategies
researches were conducted in different parts of Ethiopia but they focus on historically known place that
means drought prone area. But, currently there are many areas of the world that are highly affected by
recurrent drought and cannot consider effective local and technological adaptation strategies.
Therefore, the researcher may fill this gap, and try to assess major features of impacts drought and
effective farmer’s adaptation strategies in the study area. In other words, the purpose of this study is to
identify socio-economic impacts of the drought on rural farmer’s livelihood and to assess major farmer’s
effective adaptation strategies in eastern Hararhge.

1.3. Objectives of the Study

1.3.1. General objectives

The overall objective of this study will to understand major socio-economic impacts of Drought on rural
farmer’s livelihood and adaptation strategies in Soro Woreda, Hadiya Zone Central Ethiopia

1.3.2. Specific objectives

1. To assess the status of drought at the house hold level in the study area.

2. To examine socio-economic impacts of drought in the study area.

3. to analysis rural livelihood strategies to coping up impacts of drought in the study area.

1.4. Research Questions

1. What is the status of drought on rural farmer’s livelihood in the study area?

2. How to identify socio-economic impacts of drought in the study area?

3. What are major livelihood adaptation strategies to coping up impacts of drought in the study areas?

1.5. Significance of the Study

This study will design to assess socio-economic impacts of drought on rural farmer’s livelihood and
aimed to ensure better living condition by developing effective adaptation strategies in the Soro
worada,C.E.R.S. In addition to this, it contributes a better understanding of predicted socio-economic
impacts of drought on rural farmer’s livelihood and it serves as base line information to facilitate and
exchange of ideas among local communities, researchers, planner and policy makers on this issues etc.
In fact, it will further generate agitation in the minds of readers and spur further research works on this
subject matter. The findings and recommendations of this study will also forward the effective
adaptation strategies on socio-economic impacts of drought on rural farmer’s livelihood in the study
area.

1.6. Delimitation of the Study

This study will focus on socio-economic impacts of drought on rural farmers’ livelihood and adaptation
strategies on selected three sample kebeles from Soro Woreda C.E.R.S. Selected kebeles are first
Second hankota, Buryelange and second oda.These three sample kebeles are selected from Kola agro-
ecological zones of the Soro Woreda. The study focuses on dealing the socio-economic impacts of
drought on rural farmer’s livelihood and effective adaptation strategies in the study area.

2. LITATURE REVIEW

2.1. Theoretical Framework

2.1.1. Concepts and definitions of drought

Droughts are the greatest and most recurring climate hazard in Ethiopia, particularly for pastoral and
agro-pastoral communities that inhabit drought-prone areas. The country encompasses primarily dry
sub-humid, semi-arid, and arid regions, all of which are highly prone to desertification and drought.
While droughts have always plagued Ethiopia, their magnitude, frequency, and intensity have
significantly increased since the 1970s. The impacts of droughts which lead to decreased livestock
productivity, crop failure in agro-pastoral areas, food insecurity, and increased conflicts over scarce
resources. Droughts not only bring loss of life, famine, and hardship to today’s inhabitants (during the
2006 droughts, 25-60% of livestock were killed in some areas), but they also threaten the country’s
future, as children aged five or less are 36 and 50% (respectively) more likely to be malnourished if they
were born during a drought (UNDP, 2007/08).

According to different historian’s droughts is natural climatic phenomena that is socio-economic and
environmental impacts which explain as well by (Ngaira, 2007).

Drought is a natural hazard with often many significant social, economic and environmental impacts. It is
different from any other natural disaster, does not cause any structural damage. It is commonly defined
as a lack of precipitation over an extended period, usually a season or more, relative to some long-term
average condition. History suggests that severe and extended droughts are inevitable and part of natural
climate cycles. While forecast technology and science have improved, regional predictions remain
limited to a few months in advance (Ngaira, 2007).

2.1.2. Definition of key Terms

Adaptation is refers involves adjustments to enhance the viability of social and economic activities and
to reduce their vulnerability to drought (Smit 1993; WCDP, 2004; IPCC, 2007b).
Drought is a period of abnormally dry weather sufficiently for the lack of to cause a serious hydrological
imbalance and carries connotations of a moisture deficiency (Mohan and Arena, 1982 cited in Chopra,
2006).It is a prolonged and abnormally dry period when there is not enough water for normal needs.

Meteorological, when precipitation departs from the long-term normal;

Agricultural, when there is insufficient soil moisture to meet the needs of a particular crop at a
particular time. Agricultural drought is typically evident after meteorological drought but before a
hydrological drought;

Hydrological, when deficiencies occur in surface and subsurface water supplies;

Socio-economic, when human activities are affected by reduced precipitation and related water
availability. This form of drought associates human activities with elements of meteorological,
agricultural, and hydrological drought

Livelihood refers to the access of individuals to various types of assets, opportunities and services. It
also comprises the capabilities, assets and activities required for a means of living way of life.

Sensitivity: refers the degree to which a system is affected or responsive to impacts drought

Vulnerability: refers the degree to which a system is susceptible to injury, damage or harm of the
drought.

Livelihood:-Livelihood is defined as ‘the capabilities, assets and activities required for a means of living
and it is sustainable when it can cope with, and recover from, stress and shocks, maintain or enhance its
capabilities and provide sustainable livelihoods opportunities for the next generation (Pavanello, 2009).

Impacts: - defined as the short and long-term effect, positive and negative, direct or indirect effect of
intervention on economic, social, institutional and environment (Rover and Dixon, 2007).

2.1.3. Causes of drought

Drought has many causes. It can be caused by not receiving rain over a period of time and droughts are
completely natural, but their devastation can be far-reaching and severe. Atmospheric conditions such
as climate change, ocean temperatures, changes in the jet stream, and changes in the local landscape
are all culprits in the long story of the causes of droughts. 2.1.4. Impacts of drought

According to Wu and Wilhite (2004), it is difficult to assess drought impacts in various sectors because
the impact can be national, regional and local. In addition, drought may linger for a long time (>1year).
Or just last for a very short time (several weeks). According to them, if a short-term drought occurs at
critical of crop growth stages, the impacts on agriculture may be severe. Also, it was found that the
impact of drought on agriculture is neither immediate nor easily measured. Drought impacts extend
beyond the areas physically affected by drought after the event has ended. Like other hazards, the
impacts of drought are diverse and can be classified broadly as economic, environmental and social
(Coleen et al., 2006).
In fact, our country is more vulnerable to impacts of different disaster mainly impacts drought this is
because of various reason like weak early warning system, low adaptive capacity and low technological
improvements.

Ethiopia is vulnerable to disasters caused by drought, earthquake, flood, war and conflict, human and
livestock diseases, pests, and wildfire amongst others. These different hazards occur with varying
frequency and severity. Some result in nationwide disasters, while the impacts of others are more
localized. However, hydro-meteorological hazard, particularly drought has remained the leading cause
of disaster and human suffering in Ethiopia in terms of frequency, area coverage and the number of
people affected. Although drought is a natural phenomenon that occurs in many countries, it does not
necessarily lead to disaster by itself. It usually develops into disaster only in vulnerable societies.
Ethiopia is one of the poorest countries in the world and therefore vulnerable to shocks. Under the
Ethiopian context, drought is more or less synonymous with disaster (Sara, 2009).

The capacity to adapt drought impacts has declined because of the increasing human and livestock
population pressure resulting in serious natural resources degradation. Though drought can be assumed
as a natural disaster, land degradation has made Ethiopia vulnerable to drought and famine. Since the
1983-1984 famine, the policy response to this threat has been a series of adhoc emergency appeals on a
near annual basis for food aid and other forms of emergency assistance which are then delivered either
as payment for public works or as a direct transfer. While these measures succeeded in averting mass
starvation, especially among those with no assets, they did not banish the threat of further famine, nor
did they prevent asset depletion by marginally poor households affected by recurrent droughts. As a
result, the number of individuals in need of emergency food assistance rose from approximately 2.1
million people in 1996 to 13.2 million in 2003 before falling back to 7.1 million in 2004 (World
Bank,2004).

The high proportions of households that receive emergency food aid are “chronically food insecure”
they face predictable annual food deficits caused by agricultural production constraints and poverty.
These the people are also exposed to recurrent shocks, usually triggered by drought, that raise their
vulnerability further, by forcing them to dispose of their assets to survive. This results in a gradual
deterioration of their food security status over time, which decades of large-scale food aid deliveries
have done little to prevent. Instead, dependency on food aid has steadily increased over time, as has the
number of chronically food insecure Ethiopians. Further, the ad hoc nature of emergency appeals meant
that the provision of emergency assistance often in the form of food-for-work programs was not
integrated into ongoing economic development activities (Subbarao and Smith, 2003).

Recognizing this dilemma, Government of Ethiopia initiated a Productive Safety Net Program me (PSNP),
with the objectives of reducing livelihood vulnerability to the impacts of disaster mainly drought,
improving livelihood and community resilience to shocks, and breaking the cycle of dependence on food
aid. The overarching principle of the Productive Safety Net Program me is to facilitate “a gradual shift
away from a system dominated by emergency humanitarian aid to productive safety net system
resources via multi-year framework” (Government of Ethiopia, 2004/05). However, this program by
itself is limited to certain areas that are historically said to be drought-prone areas. And its effect is not
as such feasible in many areas of the country.

One of the main departures of this new direction is the provision of relief in ways that will support
recovery and long term development through employment generation on development activities such
as soil and water conservation, rural road building and other efforts to build community assets; provide
employment based safety net programmes and protect household assets so as to prevent poor
households from falling further towards destitution, vulnerability to future shocks particularly drought
and chronic dependence on external assistance(Sara, 2009). The Productive Safety Net Program has two
components: namely,

Public Works:-Provision of counter-cyclical employment on rural infrastructure projects such as road

construction and maintenance, small-scale irrigation and reforestation,

Direct Support:-provision of direct unconditional transfers of cash or food to vulnerable households with
no able-bodied members who can participate in public works projects.

The PSNP is complemented by a series of activities, such as productivity-enhancing transfers or services,

including access to credit, agricultural extension services, technology transfer (such as advice on food
crop production, cash cropping, livestock production, and soil and water conservation), and irrigation
and water harvesting schemes. The PSNP is designed to protect existing assets, ensure a minimum level
of food consumption, and encourage households to increase income generated from agricultural
activities and to build up assets.

2.1.4.1. Impacts of drought on agriculture

Droughts affect virtually all aspects of agricultural and other water-intensive activity and impact on a
large proportion of households, with far-reaching consequences throughout the economy. The recent
drought episodes experienced reveal that droughts are not once off disasters. They are frequent
phenomena that can be forecasted, and they will occur at least in the foreseeable future (Sara, 2009).

Droughts entail loss of assets in the form of crops, livestock, and productive capital damaged as a direct
consequence of water shortages or related power cuts. Some of the droughts had a drastic impact on
agricultural out-put, with total crop failure and massive livestock deaths being recorded in many parts of
the country. For instance, the 1984 drought in Tigray led to a 61% and 94% decline in the yield of teff
and sorghum, respectively (Mulat, 2004). Because such a high percentage of the population is rural and
depends on farmland for subsistence, variations in the weather have powerful consequences.

Degradation of the agricultural resource base, particularly through intensified land use of the
ecologically fragile land by a rapidly growing population together with over grazing, deforestation and
soil erosion, has been partly responsible for the increasing vulnerability of the rural population to
drought and famine. Such practice aggravates the vulnerability of the region to drought. Drought affects
cropping systems directly and indirectly through a range of pathways (Tubiello et al., 2007 cited in
Oselen, 2010). The effects are mediated through the farmer’s management of the interactions between
crops and their growth environment, which depend crucially on available resources, including climate,
soil, water, nutrients, genetic diversity, and machinery or labor (Olesen, 2010).

Drought also affects livestock production in two ways: indirectly, by influencing the productivity of
grassland and hence the quantity and quality of fodder, and directly by causing more heat- and disease-
related stress and death (Zhao et al., 2005). In regions that are currently warm and dry, it will mostly
affect both those aspects negatively (Ibid).Drought could be particularly damaging to countries in Africa,
and Ethiopia, being dependent on rain fed agriculture and under heavy pressure from food insecurity
and often famine (CEEP, 2006).

In Ethiopia, Small-scale farmers who are dependent on low input and low output rain-fed mixed farming
with traditional technologies dominate the agricultural sector. The present government of Ethiopia has
given top priority to this sector and has taken steps to increase its productivity. However, various
problems are holding this back. One major cause of underproduction is drought, which often causes
famine, and floods. This disaster makes the nation dependent on food aid (Ibid).

2.1.4.2. Social impacts of drought

Social impacts such as population migration, impacts on health and schooling of children, hopelessness
and sense of loss, conflicts in society for water, and malnutrition due to changed food preferences are
the most known. During drought times, water level goes down and springs and streams decrease
significantly and some even dry up. In addition to failure in crop production, sanitation will loose
attention under the prevalence of drought conditions. This is so because of personal hygiene such as
washing of body, cloth, etc. require the availability and supply of water.

The prevalence of drought forces people to look for opportunities for survival including abandoning
their home and migrating to camps where they see some temporary help to rescue their life. Those who
are unable to move or cope up with the drought are doomed to perish. As drought persists human and
livestock death toll increases compounded by poor sanitation and deteriorating natural environment.
On the other hand drought shock increases the prevalence of diarrhea among the children. According to
the statistics of the Regional Health Bureau, 7,122 cases of diarrhoea in children were reported in 2003
(drought year) in the whole region, an increase of 17 percent compared with normal levels. The increase
was attributed to water scarcity.

In addition to threatening the health and welfare of children, the recurrent drought is also effectively
suspending their education. Primary schools are closing down as children leave to help support
individual family incomes during severe drought event. Schooling is not only vital to a child's
development; it helps provide a sense of security and continuity during times of disaster and stress. In
many parts of the region, the effects of drought on ecosystems have begun to compromise the
traditional livelihoods and lifestyles of indigenous peoples who depend on them. The increased drought
risks to agriculture, property, infrastructure, and ecosystems are likely to have negative effects on health
by impeding access to safe water sources and sufficient food (FAO, 2007).

2.1.4.3. Environmental impacts

The environmental impacts such as increases in average atmospheric temperature, pasture-forest
degradation, deteriorated water quality, damage to fish habitat-wild life, and groundwater depletion
were perceived by farmers to high extent. In spite of good perception of severity of drought impacts by
farmers and their familiarity with various adaptation options, the preference given for their adoption in
agriculture was not good enough.

2.1.5. Adaptation strategies to impacts of drought

Local communities are dynamic and they use many adaptation strategies to reduce the socio-economic
impacts of drought. There are two kinds of responses to crisis that overlaps across the temporal scale,
coping mechanisms and adaptive strategies.

Coping mechanisms are the actual/immediate responses to crisis on livelihood systems in the face of
unwelcome situations, and are considered as short-term responses. Adaptive strategies are the
strategies in which a region or a sector responds to changes in their livelihood through either
autonomous or planned adaptation(Campbell, 2008).Coping mechanisms may develop into adaptive
strategies through times (Berkes & Jolly, 2001). However, it is difficult to make a clear distinction
between coping mechanisms and adaptations strategies. This study considers both schemes as coping
strategies. The resilience or the robustness of coping mechanisms differ depending on the availability
and access to resources and technology (Adger et al., 2003).

In addition to the above adaptation strategies local communities uses different ways to manage and
adapt socio-economic impacts of drought. The mainstream their forecasting and alerting systems for
drought and to develop and implement cost effective policies for adapting to and mitigating impacts of
drought on their planned socio-economic development. Drought forecasting and alerting at national and
regional scales requires a coordinated effort between multiple stakeholders to develop an effective
adaptation and alerting system. Key features of such systems include;- understanding stakeholder needs
and capacities, timely data collection and dissemination by multiple stakeholders across multiple
sectors, human capacity to process and interpret data in a timely manner, collaborative non-
competitive environment between stakeholders, regular and effective communications between
technical personnel and decision-makers and an effective system of protocols for issuing and
communicating alerts to various stakeholders across multiple sectors.

2.1.6. Livelihood strategies and classification

Like most part of Ethiopia, mixed farming dominates the livelihood of the study area. Land is an
important asset of households for production of crops and rearing of livestock. The most commonly
produced crops in the study area are annual crops such as maize and sorghum. Livestock serves as a
source of manure and fuel, pay land tax, fertilizers and as a saving to buffer bleak seasons of food/seed
shortage. Due to the high complexity and strong inter-linkage between crop production and livestock
rearing, it is difficult to consider the two livelihoods separately (Ahmed, 2002).

The wealth classification criteria for some districts were not clearly set. But, as in all other rural parts of
Ethiopia, livestock ownership and land holding are the two most important criteria for one’s wealth and
status measure in the society. However, the agricultural production is predominantly subsistent and it is
difficult to estimate the household yearly income. Nevertheless, it is clear that most of the produced
crops and livestock or livestock products are used for household consumption. The remaining used for
seed and sold to pay credits, government obligations, purchase of fertilizer, household financial
expenses and others (CSA3, 2008).

2.1.7. Government policy and strategies on impacts of drought

Developing countries are struggling to deal with impacts of drought by introduction of effective
adaptation strategies to their countries by adjusting the living physical environment. Now day’s climate
change and variability is greatest challenges for developing countries that require planning, strategies
and policies to minimize impacts and develop resilience from its shocks. Currently, much more attention
has been given to climate change adaptation and it becomes as integral component of major policies
and strategies in Ethiopia (IPCC, 2007b).

Due to this fact, Ethiopia government have already put in place a number of policies, strategies and
programmes aimed at enhancing the adaptive capacity and reducing the vulnerability of the country to
impacts of drought. Such programmes include the Plan for Accelerated and Sustainable Development to
End Poverty (PASDEP), the Environmental Policy, and the Agriculture and Rural Development Policy and
Strategy. The Government has established a Strategic Investment Framework for sustainable land
management (SLM) but the cost and capacity implications of climate change have yet to be built into
this manner (FDRE, 2011).

Developing effective Adaptation strategies for drought depends on the level of understanding of the
issue and its impacts in different levels, the degree of impact and technological capacity of farmers to
adaptation strategies needs proper plan, policy and strategies to create adequate adaptation structure
in the country level (MoFED, 2010).

2.1.8. National adaptation program of action (NAPA)

Government of Ethiopia to establish climate smart agricultural products and to develop adaptive
capacity in the country gives priority action to climate and their impacts due to climate change is one
factor which aggravate drought in the country. The Ethiopian Environmental Protection Authority (EPA)
issued the Climate Change National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPA), thus identifying the
integration of climate change adaptation activities with national development policies. The NAPA
process in Ethiopia identified arid and dry sub-humid areas of the country as being most vulnerable to
drought; in addition, agriculture was identified as the most vulnerable sector where small scale rain-fed
subsistence farmers and pastoralists are identified as the most at risk climate change (Ababa, 2007)

The aim of the National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) in Ethiopia was to build a climate
resilient green economy through effective adaptation at the sectoral, regional, and community levels. It
focuses on agricultural and livestock sectors due to the sector are major source of economy and
livelihood in Ethiopia and developing country in general. The activities focuses on promoting crop
insurance and early drought and flood warning systems, development of small-scale irrigation and water
harvesting schemes, community based sustainable use of land and capacity building and improved land
resources management practice. Effective community Participation in NAPA at the village level was
encouraged and local communities were responsible for developing their own work programmes and to
establish climate resilience green economy (NAPA 2007).

2.1.9. Climate resilient green economy (CRGE)

The Green Economy Strategy was launched with the Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) Vision in
November 2011. It takes an economy wide approach to greenhouse gas reduction. It is based on
improving crop and livestock production, practices for greater food security and better income for
farmers whilst reducing emissions, protecting and re-establishing forests for their economic and
ecological values, including carbon stocks expanding electricity generation from renewable sources of
energy for domestic and regional markets, industry and buildings to modern and energy-efficient
technologies in transport, industrial sectors, and buildings (FDRE, 2011).

Our country Ethiopia has large amount of water resources and hydroelectric potential, from this the
country potential uses are only 5% of water has been developed for irrigation and only than 5% of the
Nile basin was employed for irrigation development. That means they depend mainly on rain fed
agriculture (MoWR, 2011).

In order to reduce the major socio-economic impacts droughts of the short term weather variation and
long term climate variation the government of Ethiopia gives priority action and developing bottom up
and community based approach in different level and, the GTP promises to use the water resources
properly through expansion of small scale irrigation. Thus proper implementation of the plan expected
to reduce the negative impact of drought as the alternative means of adaptation strategies to socio-
economic impacts of drought.

2.2. Conceptual Framework

Drought occurs in virtually all climatic zones, but its characteristics vary significantly from one region to
another and its definition varies from region to region. It originates from a deficiency of precipitation
over an extended period of time, usually a season or more. It should generally be defined relative to
some long-term average condition in a particular area, a condition often perceived as “normal” (Verdin,
2007). It is also related to the timing (i.e., principal season of occurrence, delays in the start of the rainy
season, occurrence of rains in relation to principal crop growth stages) and the effectiveness (i.e., rainfall
intensity, number of rainfall events) of the rains. Other climatic factors such as high temperature, high
wind, and low relative humidity are often associated with it in many regions of the world and can
significantly aggravate its severity. Drought is a temporary deviation; it differs from aridity, which is
restricted to low rainfall regions and is a permanent feature of climate (Sara, 2009).

Based on time scales and impacts, droughts may be divided into four categories: meteorological,
agricultural, hydrological and socio-economic. Meteorological drought is signaled by indicators intrinsic
to weather data and precedes the onset of specific impacts, i.e. additional kinds of drought. Agricultural
drought may be measured in terms of duration of weeks to 6-9 months, while hydrological and socio-
economic impacts usually became apparent after longer time intervals. Meteorological drought can
easily be identified in the instrumental period, while drought events in the pre-instrumental period are
usually based on the occurrence of significant impacts (e.g. low crop yields, low streams and loss of
current in rivers, low still-water levels, and/or socio-economic difficulties). Drought episodes have
important consequences for agriculture, forestry, water management and other human activities, as
well as for other semi-natural ecosystems (Heim, 2002).

I. Metrological Drought

Meteorological drought is defined usually on the basis of the degree of dryness (in comparison to some
“normal” or average amount) and the duration of the dry period. It is based on solely on departures of
rainfall from expected amounts. So, the definition of meteorological drought must be considered as
region specific since the atmospheric conditions that result in deficiencies of precipitation are highly
variable from region to region.

II. Agricultural Drought

Agricultural drought links various characteristics of meteorological (hydrological) drought to agricultural

impacts, focusing on precipitation shortages, differences between actual and potential
evapotranspiration, soil water deficits, and so forth. It happens after meteorological drought but before
hydrological drought. A good definition of agricultural drought should be able to account for the variable
susceptibility of crops during different stages of crop development, from emergence to maturity.
Deficient to topsoil moisture at planting may hinder germination, leading to low plant populations per
hectares and reduction of final yields. However, if topsoil moisture is sufficient at this early stage, it may
not affect final yield (Verdin J., 2007 & Sara, 2009).

III. Hydrological drought

Hydrological drought is associated with the effects of periods of precipitation on surface or subsurface
water supply (i.e., stream flow, reservoir and lake levels, and ground water). The frequency and severity
of hydrological drought is often defined on a watershed or river basin scale.

IV. socio-economic impacts of drought

A Socio-economic impact of drought simply deals with drought impacts in terms of supply and demand
for goods and services. This occurs when the physical water shortage affects people and its effects can
be traced to the economic systems (Backerberg and Viljoen, 2003). In other words, when the supply and
demand of some economic is determined by demand of meteorological, hydrological and agricultural
droughts. For example, the supply of an economic good (water, forage, hydroelectric power) depends
on weather. In most cases, demand increase as a result of increasing population and/or per capita
consumption. Therefore, drought could be defined as occurring when the demand exceeds supply as a
result of a weather-related supply shortfall.

This concept of drought supports the strong symbiosis that exists between droughts and human
activities, reemphasizing the importance of managing natural resources in a suitable manner.
3. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

3.1. Description of Study Area

Soro woreda is located in Hadiya zone, C.E.R.S; the study will be conducted in soro woreda which is one
of the eleven woredas in Hadiya zone, Central Ethiopia Regional States (CERS). The capital town of the
woreda is Gimbichu which is located at a distance of 264 km away from Addis Ababa city and 200 km far
from C.E RS and about 32 km far from Zonal town Hossana. Geographically, the absolute location of the
woreda is between 7º23`00’’- 7º46`00’’ North latitude and 37º 18`00’’ - 37º 23`00’’ East longitudes. The
relative location of woreda is bounded by Gombora woreda to the north, Oromiya region to the west,
Kembata Tambero zone and lemo woreda in the north east. The altitude ranges from 840m to 2850 m
above sea level. The total land area of the woreda is 58061hacter from this 35% is flat and 65% is
undulating, moderately sloping and steeping lands which comprises of 46 rural kebeles and six city
administration in the study (SWFEDO, 2009)

3.2. Research Design

The objective of this study is to assess the status of drought at the house hold level in the study area,
examine socio-economic impacts of drought in the study area and to analysis rural livelihood strategies
to coping up impacts of drought in the study area. To achieve these objectives, the researcher will
employ descriptive survey design because it is believed that it is appropriate to get exact description of
the current status of drought in the study area.

In order to achieve the desired objectives the researcher will be used descriptive survey research design.
This is because the study will collect data by using questionnaires, interview, FGD and observation to
assess the status of drought at the house hold level in the study area, examine socio-economic impacts
of drought in the study area and to analysis rural livelihood strategies to coping up impacts of drought in
the study area. In this study, mixed research design will be used that means qualitative and quantities
methods to collect and analyze data. The quantitative approach will be used to collect and analyze
numerical data obtained from different sources. The qualitative approach will be used to examine and
reflect on sample household, key informants such as peoples who have knowledge and experience in
socio-economic impacts of drought in the study area. Rain fall and climatic change samples will be
obtained from the hosanna meteorology agency and some farmers. The samples will be analysis using
the SPSS program. Then researchers identify and classify the economic impacts of drought. To do this,
the SPSS program and Israel formula is expected.

3.3. Sources of Data

The data for this study will be obtained from both primary and secondary sources. The primary data will
be gathered from key informants by using interviews, focus group discussions, questionnaire, and
observations. The secondary data will be gathered through an extensive review of existing literature and
official reports.
3.4. Sample Size and Sampling Techniques

In this study, multi stage sampling techniques will be used. First, woreda will be selected by purposefully
because of the researcher previous and current knowledge, Secondly, the three sample kebeles are will
be selected by simple random sampling technique based on existing agro-climatic condition.

The researcher will decided using large sampling size because as sample size increases sample error will
decrease (Coban, 2007). From the three selected kebeles respondents will be selected as a sample size
for questionnaires and to make study easy. Thirdly, Total households in the selected study area, samples
households will be selected by using the following formula (Israel, 2012). It will be used to calculate the
sample size with 95%confidence level and 5% level of precision.

N
n¿
1+ N ( e ) 2
Where, n=sample size
N=Total Household
e=level of precision
980 980
To get sample size n= =
1+ 980 ( 0.05 ) 2 1+ 980 ( 0.0025 )
980 1124
= = =284 sample size
1+ 2.45 3.45
Therefore, 284 sample respondents were selected by using above calculation

Table 3.1 distribution of sample households in the study area

No Kebeles Agro-ecological zone Total no HH Total Sampling

techniques
sample HH

No % No %
1 Second Kola(low land) 457 47 52 46.5 Stratified
Hankota
2 Burye lange kola(low land) 352 36 102 35.9 Stratified
3 Second Oda Kola(low land) 171 17 50 17.6 Stratified
4 Total 980 100 284 100

Source;-SWARDO, 2020
3.5. Data Collection Instruments

Both quantitative and qualitative data will be collected through key informants’ interviews, focus group
discussions, questionnaire, and observations. This method of data collection helps the researcher to
combine the strength and amend some of the inadequacies of any one of the source of data.

3.5.1. Questionnaire

It is a series of questions asked to individuals to obtain statistically useful information about a given
topic. Close-ended and open-ended question items will be constructed to collect information. Then, the
questionnaire will be distributed for about 284 respondents of various stratum of the study area.

3.5.2. Interview

In this study, the researcher will use the key informants to the interview through a check-list of the
investigator. They will be selected according to their professional experience in impacts of drought and
related issues from the society. Based on these facts, the researchers fix 3 key informants from each
kebeles and 3 from woreda. Therefore, the total key informants for this research will be 15.

3.5.3. Focus group discussion

For the focus groups discussion the researcher will use 2 FGD groups from each kebeles in the study
area. Then the total FGD groups will be 8 that comprises of 6 people in each group and total participants
for FGD is 48.

3.5.4. Observation

Observation is way of gathering data by watching, events, or noting physical characteristics in their
natural setting. It can be overt (everyone knows they are being observed) or covert (no one knows they
are being observed and the observer is concealed).

The benefit of covert observation is that people are more likely to behave naturally if they do not know
they are being observed. When observation is used in qualitative research, it usually consists of detailed
notation of activities, events, and contexts surrounding the events and activities (Creswell, 2003).
Therefore, the researcher will make overt observation with his check list that helps for the study.

3.6. Data processing and Analysis

Data collected from both primary and secondary sources were ordered, presented and analyzed by
quantitative and qualitative methods of data analysis. Some structured household heads Survey data
were analyzed by using descriptive statistics (mean, standard deviation, frequency, Percentages, Bar
graph, Pie chart,) and inferential statistics (one way ANOVA) by using the Statistical Package for Social
Sciences (SPSS) software of version 20. The qualitative Information were gathered by using; focus group
discussion, open and close ended questions, and Key informant interview which was analyzed and
interpreted by using qualitative techniques

Table 3.2 Analytical Approach used for the study Analytical Approach

Data needed Methodology/tools of analysis

To assess the status of drought
at the house hold level in the
study area.
To examine socio-economic
impacts of drought in the study
area
to analysis rural livelihood
strategies to coping up impacts
of drought in the study area
Primary data on yield, livestock, Descriptive statistics
water source and livelihood loss;
and, increase in pests, disease
and food shortage incidence due
to drought
Primary data on the various Inferential statistics
coping mechanisms employed in One way ANOVA
response to drought and other
socio economic fixed and
random factors
Primary data on the various Multinomial logit regression
coping mechanisms employed in
response to drought and other
socio economic fixed and
random factors

3.7.5 Multinomial logit regression analysis

After identifying the key coping mechanisms from the dimension reduction technique a multinomial
logit regression analysis was used to identify the factors affecting the adoption of the various key coping
mechanisms identified. The MNL model for coping mechanisms specifies the relationship between the
probabilities of choosing any of the coping mechanism options referred to as Ai and the set of given
explanatory variables.

3.7. Expected outcome

The expected outcome of this study will be managing socio-economic impacts of drought from rural
livelihood and developing effective farmer’s adaptation strategies in the study area. In addition to this
maximizing employment opportunities and provide more options to policy formulation on the factors
controlling and enhancing sustainability on farmers adaptation strategies in the study area for rural
community in the face of the changing physical environment is the major expected outcome in the study
area.

3.8. Ethical Consideration

The researcher will consider the informant’s consent before interview begins, and be serious not to
explore sensitive issues before the establishment of a good relationship. The rapport formation will
undertake through; clarification of the purpose of the study, telling them that provision of information
was totally depending on their willingness, assuring confidentiality of their shared information,
guaranteeing that every response which came from them was highly respected, and by telling them no
need of writing their names. This strong rapport helped the researcher to get the consent and
willingness of the participants, which was very crucial to get the necessary and reliable information/data
which in turn highly contributed to the validity and reliability of the research work.

3.9. Work plan

This section describes the sequential order of activities necessary to conduct the research work.

Table:-3.2. Distribution of work plan activities

No Activities Months from September/2023-January/2024

Carried out
Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1 Title 
selection

2 Proposal 
writing

3 Preparation 
of data
collection
tools

4 Literature       
review

5 Questionnair 
e
preparation
pre-test
6 Primary 
data
collection
7 Data editing 
and coding

8 Data 
entering and
analysis
9 First draft 
report to
advisor
10 Final draft 
report for
post
graduate
11 Final Thesis 
defense

5. Budgetary-plan of Research Activities:

Table 4: budget required for working activities

No Items Units Amount Unit cost in Total cost in

dollar dollar
1 Stationary:
1.1 A4 paper Pad 6 180 1,080
1.2 Colored paper Pad 2 140 280
1.3 Pen No. 45 10 450
1.4 16 gb flash disk No. 2 250 500
1.5 Scientific calculator No. 1 280 280
2 Perdiem:
2.1 Perdiem for research Day 45 180 8,100
2.2 Perdiem for enumerator Day 10 125 7,500
(6)
3 Data price, processing, communication and measurement cost:
3.1 Thesis typing, color 4,500
printing, photocopy
3.2 Telephone charge/ No. 60 25 1,500
mobile card
4 Transport:
4.1 Transport for researcher No. 45 50 2,250
to working site. During
collecting data from
study site of rural
kebeles.
Sub-total $ 26,440
Contingency (10%) $ 2,644
Total $29,084

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