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Journal of Cleaner Production

Volume 162, 20 September 2017, Pages 1482-1490

Indonesian aquaculture futures – Evaluating

environmental and socioeconomic
potentials and limitations
Patrik John Gustav Henriksson a b , Nhuong Tran a, Chadag Vishnumurthy Mohan a,
Chin Yee Chan a, U-Primo Rodriguez c, Sharon Suri a, Lara Dominguez Mateos b,
Nur Bambang Priyo Utomo d, Stephen Hall a, Michael John Phillips a

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Abstract

Indonesia is the world's second largest seafood producer, but capture fisheries landings
have stagnated over the last decade. In response, the Indonesian government has set
ambitious targets for expanding the aquaculture sector up to 2030. The present research
therefore quantifies environmental impacts using life cycle assessments (LCAs), and
some socioeconomic indicators, for six alternative scenarios projecting the growth of
Indonesia's aquaculture up to 2030 by Tran et al. (2017). From these results, policy
implications are drawn and suggestions for improvements made for gearing the
Indonesian government and seafood industry towards blue growth.

Ten dominant aquaculture farming systems were characterized and benchmarked using
LCA, building upon data collected on Sumatra, Java, Lombok, and Sulawesi between 2014
and 2015. Assuming business as usual up to 2030, the impacts/indicators global warming
(3.3-fold increase), acidification (3.3-fold increase), eutrophication (3.5-fold increase),
land-use (3.6-fold increase), freshwater consumption (4-fold increase), energy use (3.4-
fold increase), reliance on wild fish (3.4-fold increase), total fish output (3.3-fold
increase), and full-time employments (3.3-fold increase) would increase by three to four-
fold, while monetary value would increase almost six-fold. Business as usual alongside
several other future scenarios would consequently require more wild fish and land than
is physically manageable using current production practices, while still not satisfying the
growth targets set by the Indonesian government. A major transformation of the
aquaculture industry supported by public policies is therefore needed to avoid extensive
environmental damage. Similar studies on future food growth projections are
encouraged in order to give more realistic recommendations to policy makers.

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Introduction

The Republic of Indonesia is a nation set on an archipelago of islands and populated by

some of the most frequent fish consumers in the world. Historically, this appetite has
been satisfied by the productive fishing waters surrounding the nation, but over the last
decades unsustainable fishing practices, poor management, and overfishing have
resulted in an impeded supply of wild fish (Muawanah et al., 2012). Increases in
production have thereby shifted towards growth of the aquaculture sector. Aquaculture
practices date back to at least the 15th century in Indonesia and are often typified by the
Tambak, a traditional brackish-water pond system integrating shrimp, milkfish, and
other finfish (Troell, 2009). Farming practices have, however, changed and output
increased dramatically over the last decades, raising sustainability concerns including:
reliance on wild fish stocks (through the use of fishmeal, fish oil, and trash fish),
eutrophication, spread and amplification of disease, introduction of invasive species,
release of chemicals and antimicrobials, collection of wild seeds and broodstock, and
land use and land-use change (LULUC) (Naylor et al., 2009, Primavera, 2006, Rimmer
et al., 2013). The removal of mangrove forests for the construction of aquaculture ponds
has been especially controversial since mangrove forests provide a long list of products
and ecosystem services, including firewood, wild fish (finfish, crustaceans, and mollusks),
nursing grounds, recreation and tourism, erosion control, climate regulation, and
protection against extreme weather events (Jonell and Henriksson, 2014, Rönnbäck,
1999).

In addition to these environmental concerns mainly related to grow-out sites, more

global impacts related to the whole aquaculture supply chain have gained attention
recently, including greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, acidifying emissions, energy use,
freshwater consumption, among other impacts (Jonell and Henriksson, 2014, Mungkung
et al., 2013, Pahlow et al., 2015, Pelletier and Tyedmers, 2010). These impacts are
commonly quantified using Life Cycle Assessments (LCAs) (ISO 14044, 2006), an
environmental accounting tool that has been developed for estimating emissions
throughout a product's lifecycle, from the extraction of raw materials to land-fill. LCA is
also the common framework behind most product footprints, such as the carbon, energy,
and water footprints (Fang et al., 2013). Outcomes from past aquaculture LCA studies
have, for example, shown that recirculating land-based systems generally result in larger
global warming impacts than conventional net cages (Ayer and Tyedmers, 2009),
transoceanic transport by sea only accounts for a small fraction of supply chain impacts
(Pelletier and Tyedmers, 2010), and that the provision of feed is often the main driver for
many lifecycle impacts (Henriksson et al., 2015b).

In parallel with environmental impact assessments, another set of studies have recently
tried to project the direction that the aquaculture industry will take, with regards to
species and volumes (FAO, 2016a, The World Bank, 2013). The World Bank, for example,
projected that global aquaculture production would increase from 52 Mt (million tonnes)
in 2008 to 94 Mt in 2030, while the FAO estimated that global aquaculture production to
102 Mt by 2025 (FAO, 2016a). Tran et al. (2017) projected the growth of the Indonesian
aquaculture industry using the AsiaFish model (Dey et al., 2005). Six different scenarios
were explored, including business as usual (BAU), stagnant capture fisheries, export-
oriented aquaculture, domestic-oriented aquaculture, slow aquaculture growth, and a
disease outbreak scenario in shrimp and carp. The present study builds upon these future
projections and investigates the environmental, social, and economic consequences of
different aquaculture growth scenarios in Indonesia in order to: 1) understand the
environmental and socioeconomic consequences of aquaculture growth using key
indicators; 2) identify practices that are likely to become environmentally unsustainable
with regards to consequent lifecycle emissions or land/water/fish use; and 3) identify
interventions, which might be supported by policies and management improvements,
that would support more sustainable growth.

Feed is not only responsible for a large share of the environmental footprint of many
aquaculture farming systems, but also a major cost for fish farmers (Henriksson et al.,
2015b). In intensive finfish and shrimp production, feed generally makes up more than
half of the production cost (El-Sayed, 1999). In Indonesia, the feed industry is greatly
dependent upon imports, with the majority of the aquaculture feed ingredients being
sourced from abroad (Rimmer et al., 2013). Only rice bran, cassava, part of the fishmeal,
and a few sporadically sourced raw materials are of domestic origin. Increases in global
market prices for cereals, oils, and fishmeal (Troell et al., 2014), together with insufficient
infrastructure, disease problems, and local environmental degradation, have
consequently driven up the production costs for Indonesian aquaculture farmers. It has,
for example, been estimated that feed prices are between 15% and 40% higher in
Indonesia than in Thailand (van Duijn et al., 2012). Market prices for aquatic animals, in
the meantime, have an expected growth rate of 6.2% per year, with most fish in Indonesia
being sold whole on local markets with little to no value-addition (Irianto et al., 2014).

Aquaculture's role as a source of animal protein in Indonesia has become increasingly

important over the last decade, with production per capita more than doubling over the
last five years to over 16.9 kg−1 capita−1 yr−1 (FAO, 2016b). In addition to protein, fish also
provide the country's poor with an important source of essential fatty acids and
micronutrients (Béné et al., 2015), while aquaculture production helps to stabilize market
prices (Belton and Thilsted, 2014). However, the increase in aquaculture has also driven
up the demand for low-value fish from the wild, as it is used in fishmeal and fish oil
production, resulting in the collapse of some domestic fish stocks and subsequent socio-
economic consequences (Buchary, 2010).

Deforestation of mangrove forests to make space for aquaculture ponds has also affected
rural coastal populations who's livelihoods are based around the collection of plants and
animals from the forest (Adger and Luttrell, 2000). Once mangrove is turned into
aquaculture ponds, the rights to use the land become exclusive to whoever cleared the
forest (Adger and Luttrell, 2000). This has resulted in demand for such land, making the
Indonesian aquaculture industry accountable for roughly a quarter of the mangrove lost
in SE Asia since 2000 (Richards and Friess, 2015). The aquaculture sector has, in the
meantime, also brought employment to over 6.4 million farmers (MMAF, 2013).
Livelihoods have thus been offered to many landless Indonesians, as well as to women
who are the dominating workforce in fish processing plants and trading (Weeratunge
et al., 2010). However, environmental degradation and social conflicts persist in some
areas, both bringing economic losses (Adger and Luttrell, 2000, Halwart et al., 2007).

The aim of this study was therefore to explore the environmental, social, and economic
consequences of the different alternative scenarios projected by Tran et al. (2017). In
order to allow for this, LCA was applied to several of the most common aquaculture
production systems in Indonesia. The full-time employment equivalent that would be
created on aquaculture farms and the total market value of the products produced were
also quantified, as crude indicators for social and economic outcomes. The results were
then evaluated and used to explore how the principles of Blue Growth might be applied
to Indonesian aquaculture growth. Blue Growth is defined by FAO as “Sustainable growth
and development emanating from economic activities using living renewable resources
of the oceans, wetlands, and coastal zones that minimize environmental degradation,
biodiversity loss and unsustainable use of aquatic resources, and maximize economic and
social benefits”, and was adopted by the Indonesian government in 2014 (FAO, 2015).

Section snippets

Goal and scope

The LCA models used in the present research are exploratory and should therefore be
interpreted as crude relative indicators rather than absolute emission estimates
(Henriksson et al., 2015a). Eight species and ten production systems were identified as
relevant for the current goal and scope based upon information from the Ministry of
Marine Affairs and Fisheries (MMAF, 2013) (Table 1). Together, they represented an
estimated 78% and 75% of current production in Indonesia by volume and value,…

Life cycle inventory

Coal power plants generate approximately half of the electricity in Indonesia (iea.org
accessed 25-11-2015), resulting in relatively polluting electricity. As for vehicle
emissions, Indonesia adheres to the EURO2 emission standard, a two decade old standard
(1996) from Europe (Silitonga et al., 2012). The road infrastructure is also poor in many
places, distances long and congestion commonplace. This resulted in relatively expensive
and polluting road transportations for feed, juveniles, and…

Discussion

Our environmental and socioeconomic reflections on the economic projections by Tran

et al. (2017) provides essential feedback on physical limits that renders several future
scenarios largely impossible using current production practices. For example, limits with
regards to access to land, fishmeal, and fresh water cast serious doubt on BAU, AS2, AS2,
and AS3. Moreover, the current study also attracts concerns about more global
environmental consequences, including GHG emissions. This said, it…

Conclusions

The present study benchmarked a number of Indonesian aquaculture systems using LCA
and socio-economic indicators. These benchmarks were also projected over six different
possible future scenarios, projecting volume increases of +63% to +493% and different
species matrixes up to 2030. The results, however, cast serious doubt on many of the
more productive scenarios, as abiotic and biotic factors became limiting. Thus, more
resource efficient species farmed using better aquaculture practices need …

Acknowledgements
This work is a contribution to the CGIAR Research Program on Fish Agrifood Systems
(FISH). Funding support for this study was provided by the Gordon and Betty Moore
Foundation [grant number 4033]; CGIAR Research Programs on Policies, Institutions and
Markets (PIM)- – Program Participant Agreement No. CRP2-110; the CGIAR Research
Program on Livestock and Fish; the CGIAR Research Program on Fish Agrifood Systems
(FISH); and the VINNOVA-VINMER Marie Curie Incoming grant [grant number 2015-
01556].…
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