Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering 69 (2015) 138–147

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Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/soildyn

Simplified method for generating slope seismic deformation hazard

curve
Zeljko Zugic a,n, Vlatko Sesov b, Mihail Garevski b, Mirjana Vukićević c, Sanja Jockovic c
a
Geotechnics Department, The Highway Institute, Belgrade, Serbia
b
Ss. Cyril and Methodius University, Skopje, Macedonian
c
University of Belgrade, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Serbia

art ic l e i nf o a b s t r a c t

Article history: A simplified method for generating slope deformation hazard curve that takes into account the
Received 26 May 2013 variations of input parameters is presented in this paper. The main assumption in the new approach
Received in revised form is that the occurrence of peak slope deformation is Poisson's process. The procedure is based on logic
11 June 2014
tree analysis, commercial software and routines programmed by the authors for generating sets of input
Accepted 8 October 2014
files, and forming slope performance curve. The methodology was applied to a real landslide in order to
demonstrate the advantages and limitations of the proposed approach. The results of the analysis
Keywords: showed the influence of the certain input factors on sliding displacement as well as the advantages of
Seismic slope stability employing continuum mechanics approach.
Probabilistic approach
& 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Displacement hazard curve

1. Introduction The challenge is to develop a procedure that will be complex

enough to take into account the uncertainties associated with the
Most of the existing methods for seismic slope deformation main input parameters and simple enough to provide results
assessment are based on a deterministic or pseudo-probabilistic within a reasonable time, without complex probabilistic computa-
approach, in which the variabilities in the expected ground tion, being applicable in the case of having an average amount and
motion, soil properties, water level and geometry are either quality of seismic and geological data.
ignored or treated rigorously.
Existing procedures for generating a sliding displacement curve
have mainly been developed, adopted and verified in the cases of
2. Scope of research
significant seismic data and require a large number of simulations
[3,4,19]. They are mostly based on the sliding block (Newmark
The objective of this study is definition and application of a
[15]) or some other simplified procedures.
new simplified procedure for generating a sliding displacement
The concept of actual hazard (i.e., the annual probability of
hazard curve to two different slope cases in order to present all the
exceedance) associated with the computed displacement has so
advantages and limitations of the new procedure.
far not been developed in cases of low to moderate seismic
The proposed simplified probabilistic framework allows the
excitation when usually there is no valuable seismic data apart
possibility to take into account the uncertainties in the prediction
from the design codes.
of earthquake ground shaking, soil properties, water level and
There are two different types of complexity while trying to
slope geometry. The proposed procedure is applicable to any
assess the seismic slope deformation in a probabilistic manner.
deformation assessment technique. The framework is implemen-
One is related to the slope deformation technique and the other on
ted to two slope cases. The “Duboko” slope of the huge “Umka–
the level of advancement of the probabilistic computation. Theo-
Duboko” landslide on a real and hypothetical location was con-
retically, it is possible to implement any of the probabilistic
sidered as an example. The procedure is based on logic tree
methods in any deformation assessment technique. The combin-
analysis and different methods for slope deformation analysis;
ing of the most advanced techniques for both stages will make the
therefore the influence of selecting different number of branches
analysis extremely time consuming.
has been observed.
For numerical implementation, commercial software (Geostu-
n
Corresponding author. Tel.: þ 38163 314040; fax: þ 381 11 2466 866. dio 2004 and Flac 5.0) has been used. The simulations have been
E-mail address: zzugic@gmail.com (Z. Zugic). performed using logic tree analysis and routines programmed by

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.soildyn.2014.10.005
0267-7261/& 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
 Z. Zugic et al. / Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering 69 (2015) 138–147 139

the authors [24] - PROBIN for generating sets of input files and occurrence of values of a phenomenon which are less than the
PROBOUT for generating hazard curves. referent value, where the phenomenon may be time or space
dependent. The observed phenomenon is seismic deformation of
slope therefore, it is time dependent. In order to obtain the
3. Proposed methodology performance curve, a lot of simulations should be done and the
performance curve will be defined by interpolation between the
3.1. Main assumptions calculated simulations. Firstly, the deterministic analysis should be
done with median values of input parameters. For time dependent
The common assumption is that an earthquake is generated events, 50% of exceedance during the exposure time should be
through a random process and it is independent of its last used and also mean values of space dependent variables. All the
occurrence [12]. This assumption is the basis for considering branches of the logic tree are generated around this median event
earthquake occurrences a Poisson process in PSHA. Similarly, wherefore the hazard curve is later centered on this point. The
ground motions are also characterized by Poisson's process. work flow of the proposed methodology is presented in Fig. 3.
Another assumption by Saygili [20] is that the annual rate of Numerous of simulations are observed in order to mix the
occurrence (or exceedance) for an event (i.e., T ¼1 year) is different ground motions, soil properties, water level and geome-
numerically equal to its annual probability of occurrence (or try scenarios (Fig. 4). The general idea and main difference in
exceedance): P(E)¼ λ. As a result, a conversion is not necessary comparison with earlier probabilistic studies are performing the
between rates of occurrence/exceedance and probabilities of limited number of “wisely” selected simulations. From this reason,
occurrence/exceedance, and in the following sections the terms
rate and probability are used interchangeably. This approximation
is used for rare events (such as earthquakes) where λ is small and
is often called the “rare event assumption” proposed by Bazzuro
and Cornell [2].
Finally, the main assumption of the new simplified procedure is
that the occurrence of peak slope permanent displacements in
time can be treated as (generalized) Poisson's process. It is a
widely accepted assumption that strong (characteristic) earth-
quakes as well as peak ground motions from these earthquakes
occur as generalized Poisson's process. The slope seismic deforma- Fig. 2. Occurrence of peak slope displacement as Poisson's process.
tion in this approach is treated as a “peak ground motion” for a
certain earthquake (Fig. 1). Every occurrence of peak slope dis-
placement in time is a product of specific combination of seismic,
soil and water level conditions (Fig. 2). The idea for this approx-
imation came from Kramer [12] who stated that if earthquake
events are assumed to be the Poisson process, then the failure
events caused by earthquakes also become Poisson, thus simplify-
ing the computation.
Let D be a random variable representing, for an earthquake that
has ruptured the soil surface, the absolute value of the displace-
ment across the sliding surface at the ground surface, and Dslope be
the same type of displacement at the site, which may or may not
have been affected by the earthquake, and let p(d,t) be the
probability that Dslope exceeds level d during the exposure period
pðd; tÞ ¼ PfDslope 4 djtgÞ
Being a direct consequence of an earthquake occurrence, the
probabilistic model for this event (exceedance of a certain level of
displacement) has been determined by the probabilistic model of Fig. 3. Flow chart of a proposed methodology.
earthquake occurrence. In [21] are presented the models for
Poissonian earthquakes and (smaller earthquakes and zero dis-
placement) for earthquakes occurring at a time dependent rate
(bigger earthquake displacement), related to permanent displace-
ment across seismic faults.

3.2. Description of methodology

The goal has been to perform cumulative frequency (frequency

of non-exceedance) analysis—analysis of the frequency of

Fig. 1. Analogy between seismic slope displacement and seismic fault displacement. Fig. 4. Logic tree generation.
140 Z. Zugic et al. / Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering 69 (2015) 138–147
the logic tree approach has been used instead of Monte-Carlo
simulations. Therefore, beside the reliable input data and compu-
tation software the engineering judgment is necessary.
Five steps are proposed:
Step 1. Defining the possible scenarios, construction of a logic tree,
assigning branch's weights. For generating sets of inputs for
numerical simulations, a logic tree approach has been used. In a
logic tree, often a normal distribution is assumed for each node,
but if there are reliable data some other probability distribution
can be employed. For this application, the three point approx-
imation method is proposed by Keefer and Bodily [8] as well as
method of Saygili [20] that include five branches. This mod-
ification uses the area under the standard normal probability
density function so that 2σ,  1σ, 0σ, þ1σ, and þ2σ are
associated with weights (w) of 0.05, 0.25, 0.4, 0.25, and 0.05,
respectively. The three branches can be well represented using
the 5th, 50th, and 95th percentiles with weights (w) of 0.2,
0.6 and 0.2, respectively. In this case, the alternatives represent
values of each parameter equal to  1.6  times the standard
deviation (σ), the mean, and þ 1.6σ. In case data are not
available, standard deviations of geotechnical properties are
used from the literature [13].
Step 2. Calculation of seismic displacement for every branch of the
logic tree. Slope deformation analysis can be performed by
using any of the available methods rigid block, or the con-
tinuum mechanics approach. Important property of the above
mentioned PROBIN routine should be mentioned here in case
of calculating the sliding displacement for same hazard level
for different soil property branches. It starts running for the
upper to lower values of soil strength. Therefore, in case of
obtaining displacement less than “zero” displacement, (will be
explained in step 4) the procedure starts analyses for another
seismic event branch, and considers all other soil branches to
be “zero”. It improves analysis to run faster especially in cases
when there are many “zero” events.
Step 3. Assigning weight to calculated displacements, representing
each calculated displacement against its total weight, obtaining
the cumulative fractal curve. The procedure for obtaining fractile
hazard curves involves a relationship between annual prob-
ability and cumulative weights at each sliding displacement
level. As shown in the left part of Fig. 5, to develop a cumulative
weight curve, the weights of the displacements are summed
from lower D to higher D for a given value of D. The probability
for each D value is derived from the cumulative weight curve.
This procedure corresponds with findings of [1] that argued
that the uncertainty is better represented by fractile hazard
curves.
Fractile curve for certain T
0.9
0.8
0.5
0.1
0.0
permanent displacement
Fig. 5. Transformation of the fractile curve into a performance curve.
Step 4. Treating the small displacement events. It is expected that
some of the branches will give zero or very small displacement.
As outlined by Travasarou and Bray [22], permanent displace-
ments can be modeled as a mixed random variable, which has a
certain probability mass at zero displacement and a probability
density for finite displacement values. It can be argued that
displacements smaller than the proposed value D are not of
engineering significance and can, for all practical purposes, be
considered as “negligible” or “zero”. The probability of zero
events is obtained simply by reading from the fractile curve.
The rest of the values can be interpolated in order to generate a
displacement hazard curve.
Step 5. Transforming the fractile axis into rate of occurrence—
obtaining the sliding displacement hazard curve. The procedure
for getting probability of exceedance for certain D from the
fractile curve is described. It is based on the above described
assumption about the occurrence of a peak slope permanent
displacement in time as Poisson's process (Fig. 1) and it is
performed with PROBOUT [24] routine.
The following procedure is to be followed in order to determine
the sliding displacement hazard-curve. According to basic prob-
abilistic equations, the return period of a certain level of displace-
ment will be t(d)¼ Texposer/  ln(NEP)¼Texposer/ln(fractile(d)), where
NEP is a non-exceedance probability. The probability of exeedance
of certain level of displacement will equal pexcidance(d)¼1/t(d). On
the basis of the above explained assumption we have that:
probability of excidance (d)¼ annual rate (d); annual rate (d) ¼
ln(percentile(d)/Texposer ¼  ln(fractile(d))/Texposer. Finally we have a
final equation for determining the annual rate of a certain level of
slope displacement: annual rate ðd o dmin Þ ¼ ∑d0min lnðf ractileðdÞÞ
4. Application of methodology and results
4.1. Observed case study
According to both general and preliminary designs of the
motorway running from Belgrade to the South Adriatic, i.e. E-763,
at the exit from Belgrade – the capital of Serbia, the road facility
corridor is located on the right bank of the Sava river, at the
meandering apex (Fig. 6). Along a length of 3 km, it crosses “Umka–
Duboko”, a large active landslide of the depth of 10–26 m, with a
dominant presence of marly clays, covering an area of 1.8 sqkm.
Based on analyses and a series of iterative procedures [14], it has
been decided to widen-up the Sava river channel on the left bank,
build a parallel protective-retaining structure made of crushed
stone on the right bank, and set the motorway road base on a high
Annual rate of
exceedance
Performance curve
Permanent
displacement
 Z. Zugic et al. / Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering 69 (2015) 138–147 141

Fig. 6. Location map of study area (Jelisavac et al. [14]).

static and seismic performance of such repair solution using

advanced methods became obvious. The landslide is located in a
seismically active area and the impact of possible seismic move-
ments of the landslide on the structure of the future motorway is a
very important issue of this project.

4.1.1. Geotechnical parameters

Fig. 7. The most critical slope “Duboko” of Umka–Duboko landslide (Jelisavac et al. [14]).
embankment (made of dredged sand) behind the mentioned
structure (Fig. 7).
In addition, it has been envisioned to carry out works for
drainage, leveling and aforestation of the unstable terrains. Con-
sidering that a motorway of such an importance is planned to be
built above the presented landslide, the necessity for assessing the
Before the application of the above described procedure,
previous geotechnical analyses and selection of design parameters
were considered.
For the established landslide models, along 15 geotechnical
profiles, the natural stability of the slope intercepted by the
landslip has been analyzed in [14] in a recurrent mode, for the
design conditions of equilibrium Fs¼ 1, a tentative angle has been
142 Z. Zugic et al. / Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering 69 (2015) 138–147

looked for, at an average water of the Sava river and a maximum deformation using different techniques. Both models are pre-
water-saturation of the slope. The laboratory residual resistance sented in Figs. 10 and 11. The modeling issues can be found in
and tentative angles for the design conditions of equilibrium are Refs. [9,23].
correlative. It has been recommended for the purpose of checking-
up the effect of repair to utilize the design residual parameters for
the Duboko landslide which are φr ¼111 and cr¼ 0 kPa. In the past,
4.1.3. Definition of seismic input
analysis was performed on all the defined profiles. It was detected
On the basis of the available seismic data from the seismic
that the cross section 12–12 of the “Duboko” slope located at
hazard maps, the location of Umka–Duboko is within the zone of
9 þ611 m (Fig. 7) gives the lowest factor of safety wherefore the
maximum intensity of VII MSK PGA ¼0.1 g T ¼475 years. Fig. 12
proposed methodology was applied on this particular slope. The
shows the hazard curve approximated according to seismic maps
slope “Duboko” is of a frontal type, with a length of 1.45 km along
and historical data. More details about seismic hazard assessment
the river, whereas along the slope it is 300 m long, thus amounting
for this region can be found in [14]. Considering there is no
approximately to 40 ha (Fig. 8). The volume of the landslide is
valuable data, a set of spectrum-compatible accelerograms for
6,000,000 m3 with an average depth of 15 m. So far, observations
dynamic analyses has been defined. That means that the average
have been made at the installed 19 inclinometers, 15 piezometers
response spectrum computed from all the accelerograms should
and three exploratory shafts. In accordance with the morphology
match a target spectrum prescribed by a seismic code Eurocode 8,
and the sliding mechanism, three blocks have been singled out: D,
(see [6]) within a certain tolerance, over a specified range of
E and F. The length of the blocks along the river is 350–550 m,
periods. Spectral-compatibility is not simply achieved when
whereas the maximum depths of sliding were recorded in block D
recorded accelerograms are used; however, it is an important
—up to 25 m, in block E—up to 16.5 m and in block F—up to 10 m.
requirement in order to avoid using records that are inconsistent
The analyses were focused on the cross section presented in Fig. 9.
with code prescriptions.
The soil properties evaluated from the geological investigations,
For defining seismic records for logic tree analysis, all the
designed repair strength of materials and iterative calculations are
records have been scaled to the best estimated PGA value of
presented in Table 1. More information can be found in Ref. [14].
0.064 g (median value Table 3). The median value (11th largest
The uncertainties of soil properties are defined by probability
displacement) was used as a best estimation(Figs. 13-16). Having
distribution functions (Table 2). The standard deviations and types
20 records and 20 calculated displacements simply by sorting in a
of probability distributions are defined according to the detected
decreasing array (Table 4) we have defined 2/20 value as a 5%
scatter of the data and recommendations presented by other
percentile and 20/20 as 95% value. The same procedure has been
authors [13]. The influence of the geometry and water level
used for all the other branches in order to achieve a certain
uncertainties has not been used in the logic tree analysis in order
percentile for the 5 branch analysis. The inputs are summarized in
to decrease the number of simulations, but generally it can be
Table 5. For most of the cases the real site location was observed,
included as it has been mentioned in the methodology description.
the spectral shape of Eurocode 8 type 2 (as used (M o5.5),
considering ground type A (rock site Vs30Z 800 m/s) has been
4.1.2. Observed slope models used [6].
The displacement analysis has been proposed to be done using Just for one case, curve B, the slope is considered to be located
two different methods: Newmark's sliding block (GEOSTUDIO at hypothetical site with PGA ¼0.18 g for a return period of 475
2004 (Slope/W, Quake/W) and the continuum modeling approach years (Table 5); therefore the records compatible to type 1
(FLAC 5.0). Due to the lack of space some important issues about
slopes modeling are not mentioned here. The work of Chugh and Table 1
Soil strength and stiffness parameters.
Stark [5] is a good reference for assessing the seismic slope
Soil Density Material Stiffness parameters
[kg/m3] strength Gmax/damping curve
(shear and normal
Name Class c0 ø0 stiffness for interface)
[kPa] [deg.]

Colluvium Marly 1790.0 30 23.0 6200 kPa [25]

clay
Rock Marlstone 1890.0 290 25.2 1.2 GPa—constant
Mini dam Crushed 2600.0 0 45.0 13,000 kPa [10]
stone
Embankment Refueled 1700.0 0 25.0 8400 kPa [10]
sand
Slip surface Marly 1790.0 0 11 Kn ¼ 3  10e5 kPa/m
clay Ks¼ 11  10e3 kPa/m
Fig. 8. Slope “Duboko” (Jelisavac et al. [14]).

Fig. 9. Parameters obtained by investigation works and previous analysis.

 Z. Zugic et al. / Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering 69 (2015) 138–147 143

Table 2
Definition of soil uncertain parameters

Parameter Unit μ Mean value σ Standard deviation Probability distribution

Residual shear strength along interfaces degrees 11 2 Normal

Shear modulus (Gmax) of sliding mass-colluviums kPa 6200 1600 Normal

Table 4
Observed seismic records ranking for curves A, C, D, and E.

Record Newmark displacement(cm) Percentile Rank

Fig. 10. Slope “Duboko” Slope/W model. Rec. no. 12 0 95 20th

Rec. no. 13 0 19th
Rec. no. 20 0 18th
Rec. no. 7 0 80 17th
Rec. no. 16 0.00184 25 16th
Rec. no. 17 0.094 15th
Rec. no. 2 3.33 14th
Rec. no. 10 4.43 13th
Rec. no. 5 5.95 12th
Rec. no. 18 6.404 50 11th
Rec. no. 19 12.01 10th
Fig. 11. Slope “Duboko” FLAC model. Rec. no. 15 20.22 9th
Rec. no. 6 39.48 8th
Rec. no. 8 39.6 7th
Rec. no. 4 58.8 25 6th
Excidance frequency

1.0000 Rec. no. 9 89.11 20 5th

Rec. no. 11 91.97 4th
0.1000 Rec. no. 1 109.5 3rd
0.0100
1/year

Rec. no. 3 129.33 5 2nd

Rec. no. 14 181.2 1st
0.0010
0.0001
interpolations were made for the purpose of detecting the trends
0.0000
0.01 0.1 1 between different curves more easily. For all curves as “zero event”
are treated displacements less than 1 cm; therefore all the simula-
PGA, g
tions that give the displacement less than that threshold are
Fig. 12. Site hazard curve. grouped into the “zero event” set. The Newmark sliding block
method was used for all curves except for Curve D where the
continuum modeling approach was applied for the purpose of
Table 3
comparing the results.
Observed values of peak ground acceleration Figs. 17 and 18 represent the slope performance assessment in
cases of real (0.1 g in 475 years) and hypothetical sites (0.18 g in
Fractile Return period (years) PGA (site 1) PGA (site 2) 475 years). The impact of considering uncertainties of soil proper-
ties (in this case the residual shearing strength of sliding surface)
50% in 100 years 144.3 0.064 0.15
20% in 100 years 448.1 0.095 0.315 are considered for both cases. One can see that, at a lower level of
80% in 100 years 62.1 0.048 0.077 displacement (Fig. 17), the soil properties have a bigger influence
95% in 100 years 33.4 0.038 0.05 on the annual rate of occurrence, while at the bigger level this
75% in 100 years 72.1 0.050 0.09 influence is almost negligible, which is consistent with results
25% in 100 years 347.6 0.087 0.22
5% in 100 years 1949.6 0.158 0.38
presented by Kim and Sitar [11]. In Fig. 17 one can notice (on the
interpolated curve) the bigger probability at a lower level of
displacement hazard in the curve where soil uncertainty is
(M 45.5) have been used. This was done in order to verify the neglected. This is rather a product of interpolation and big
procedure in cases of relative bigger levels of seismic excitation. concentration of zero events in cases of low seismicity. In cases
of higher seismicity (Fig. 18) this phenomenon does not occur. This
outcome stresses the importance of treating the soil uncertainties
5. Results in cases of lower seismic excitation and agrees with findings of
[11,16–18] that stated that neglecting the soil uncertainties may
During the application of the proposed procedure on the real lead to unconservative results.
slope, numerous different analyses were performed. Only the main Fig. 19 presents influence of using a different number of
results are presented in order to demonstrate the method applic- branches in the logic tree analysis on the obtained sliding
ability and the authors' way of thinking while analyzing this displacement curve. For preliminary analysis, three branch ana-
particular slope case. Five different cases were observed therefore lyses are sufficient to ensure an insight into the slope seismic
five classes of curves were obtained (Table 5). In the presented deformation but it is quite unconservative, especially at higher
curves the gray lines represent the results from the real simula- levels of sliding displacement hazard.
tions while the black ones are the results of interpolation of A further analysis is continued using 5 branches, but the effort
considering the exponential shape of sliding displacement curve, is made on decreasing the number of parameters, considering that
that coincide with the Poisson distribution assumption. These performing 125 simulations while obtaining curve C was time
144 Z. Zugic et al. / Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering 69 (2015) 138–147

Table 5
Inputs for the event tree

Curve Curve A Curve B Curve C Curve D Curve E

Nubmer of branches 27 branches 27 branches (9 without soil) 125 branches 25 branches 125 branches
(9 without soil)
Sesimic information Serbia PGA ¼ 0.1 g for Hypotetical site PGA ¼0.18 g Serbia PGA ¼0.1 g for Serbia PGA ¼ 0.1 g for Serbia PGA ¼ 0.1 g for
475 years for 475 years 475 years 475 years 475 years
Target response Mo 5.5 M 45.5 M o 5.5 M o 5.5 Mo 5.5
spectrum Type 2 EC8 Type 1 EC8 Type 2 EC8 Type 2 EC8 Type 2 EC8
Seismic PGA  2σ 0.215 g
data
þ1.6σ Mean 0.13 g 0.315 g  1σ 0.126 g
Mean 0.064 g 0.15 g Mean 0.064 g
 1.6σ 0.04 g 0.077 g þ1σ 0.044 g
þ2σ 0.0335 g
Seismic þ1.6σ Mean Rec. no. 16 Rec. no. 16  2σ Rec. no. 12
record
 1 σ Rec. no. 7
Mean Rec. no. 18 Rec. no. 5 Mean Rec. no. 18 Rec. no. 18 Rec. no. 18
 1.6σ Rec. no. 4 Rec. no. 11 þ1σ Rec. no. 9
5/20
þ2σ Rec. no. 3
2/20
Geotenical Friction þ1.6σ 8.51  2σ 7.881
data angle
 1σ 9.441
Mean 111 Mean 111
 1.6σ 13.51 þ1σ 12.561
þ2σ 14.131
Shear Constant  2σ Constant 6200 kPa 6200 kPa 2950 kPa
Modulus 6200 kPa
 1σ 4575 kPa
Mean 6200 kPa
þ1σ 7825 kPa
þ2σ 9450 kPa

one Flac 5.0 slope simulation, but it will certainly be part of some
5
future research.
The influence of a variation of Gmax (initial shear modulus of
4 sliding mass) on slope displacement calculated by decoupled
Response Spectra (m/s 2 )

approach is presented in Fig. 21. The influence of shear modulus

3 of sliding mass on sliding performance of slope is bigger at a lower
2
1 ween the Newmark and continuum approach analyses for parti-
0 following factors: fundamental period of the potential sliding
0 0.5 1 1.5
Period (s)
Fig. 13. All 20 selected records.
consuming. The next analysis for generating curve D was per-
formed with only median seismic record (Record no. 18) and
slightly different results were obtained (Fig. 20). Employing only
the median record detected by performing the 20 simulations
(Table 4) gave satisfactory results while calculating the displace-
ment hazard curve using the above described procedure.
Another important parameter presented in Table 5 classified as
geotechnical but very much correlated with seismic response of
slope is shear modulus of sliding mass. Decoupled sliding block
analysis is performed using QUAKE/W for dynamic site response
analysis and SLOPE/W for displacement calculation. In this type of
analysis shear modulus of sliding mass affects only the seismic site
response; therefore in Gmax they indirectly affect the calculated
sliding displacement. A bigger influence should be expected while
applying the continuum mechanics approach. This kind of analysis
was not done here having in mind the time necessary to perform
level of sliding displacement.
Continuum mechanic approach was applied for curve D (that
include 25 branches) in order to be able to generate the curve
within a reasonable amount of time. Differences in results bet-
cular slope case (Fig. 22) were commented in terms of the
2
mass, the frequency content of the input motion, yield acceleration
and the maximum seismic loading.
There are scenarios where the Newmark sliding block proce-
dure is unconservative in predicting seismically induced perma-
nent displacements. That is mainly because the computed slope
displacement is influenced predominantly by low frequency aver-
age motion that amplifies and is not sensitive to high frequency
motion. However, the Newmark deformation analyses results may
be justified, if the fundamental period of the slope is sufficiently
low (i.e., shallow soil deposits with T o0.2 s). The observed slope
is quite shallow; therefore the obtained difference in the results
(two to four times larger displacement obtained by the Newmark
method) was expected.
The results from Fig. 22 are interesting from the aspect of the
frequency content of the input motion. Rigid sliding block analysis
that ignores the flexibility of the earth structure is generally shown to
be unconservative when the frequency content of the input motions
is close to the fundamental period of the slope. Having in mind the
frequency content of the employed seismic records (Figs. 13 and 14)
and the fact that the natural period of the slope is around 0.2 s, one
can expect that the Newmark sliding block will underestimate the
 Z. Zugic et al. / Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering 69 (2015) 138–147 145

Average difference absolute value= 7.99%

2.5

EC8 – spectrum
EC8- reference reference spectrum
Average response spectrum
2
Average response spectrum

Response Spectra (m/s 2)

1.5

0.5

0
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2
Period (s)

Fig. 14. Average value of 20 selected records.

0.04

0.02
Acceleration ( g )

0.00

-0.02

-0.04

-0.06

-0.08
0 20 40 60 80
Time (sec)

Fig. 15. Median time history record (Rec. no. 18). Fig. 17. Curve A—lower seismicity zone (PGA ¼0.1 g in 475 years).

0.08

0.06
Deformation

0.04

0.02

0.00
0 20 40 60 80 Fig. 18. Curve B—hypothetical site (PGA ¼ 0.18 g in 475 years).
Time

Fig. 16. Median displacement history (D¼ 6.4 cm).

6. Summary and conclusions

seismic deformation, but this did not happen. The explanation for The proposed procedure represents a valuable tool for generat-
this might be quite a small value of yield acceleration for the active ing the hazard displacement curve and can be used for preliminary
landslide calculated with residual soil parameters. analysis as well as for a complex analysis in cases of availability of
The influence of the level of seismic loading on the accuracy of reliable seismic and geotechnical inputs.
results is shown in Fig. 22. The Newmark method can be The main advantage is possibility to assess sliding displace-
unconservative in cases of very low displacement hazard but in ment hazard in probabilistic manner by performing a reasonable
those cases the difference in the results is insignificant from the amount of simulations. Therefore, the displacement hazard curve
engineering viewpoint. can be obtained in reasonable amount of time, even in case of
146 Z. Zugic et al. / Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering 69 (2015) 138–147
Fig. 19. Influence on different number of branches (curves A and C).
Fig. 20. Influence on employing different seismic records (curves C and D).
Fig. 21. Influence of employing uncertainties of shear modulus of sliding mass
(curves D and E).
Fig. 22. Influence on different sliding assessment techniques (curve D).
employing the most advanced continuum approach deformation
assessment technique. That is big advantage in comparison with
the other approaches.
In case of using proposed method based on logic tree analysis,
one is able to obtain displacement hazard curve in case of the
absence of significant seismic data, by selecting the several
characteristic seismic load cases as it was done in presented case
study analysis.
On the basis of the presented results, it is important to
accentuate that assessing of the seismic deformation of slopes in
a probabilistic manner is an iterative procedure. The possibility to
add a new uncertain parameter in the next iteration and upgrade
the analysis is a very good property of the proposed technique.
Adding one more set of branches to logic tree analysis is quite
quick and simple, having in mind that all the probabilistic
computation results from the previous step can be used.
Performing the three branch analysis was found to be uncon-
servative but it is useful for detecting a parameter that might be of
interest. Performing of some kind of sensitivity study [7] might
also be quite useful, before starting applying the proposed
procedure.
The main outcome for this paper is
 The verification of the new procedure for obtaining slope
deformation hazard curve.
 Confirmation and quantification of the importance of treating
the soil data variation.
 The impact of shear modulus of sliding mass on slope deforma-
tion is highlighted.
 The advantages of using advanced methods (continuum
approach) are shown.
 Confirmation of the applicability of Newmark rigid block
method in some specific cases.
A further development of the proposed procedure can be made
by adding the correlation factor between the seismic intensity and
soil properties, or between the water table and the soil property.
Another improvement could be a better estimation of the spatial
variability of static and dynamic soil properties.
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