Global Index Briefing:

Australia MSCI
Yardeni Research, Inc.

November 30, 2023

Dr. Ed Yardeni
516-972-7683
eyardeni@yardeni.com

Joe Abbott
732-497-5306
jabbott@yardeni.com

Please visit our sites at

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thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents Table Of Contents
Australia MSCI
Stock Price Index 1
Forward Revenues & Earnings with Annual Squiggles 2
Annual Growth Squiggles 3
Margins & NERI 4
Forward Growth & Valuation 5

November 30, 2023 / Global Index Briefing: Australia MSCI Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 Stock Price Index
Figure 1.
1550 1550
AUSTRALIA MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEX
(ratio scale) 11/30
1350 1350

1150 1150

950 950

750 750

550 550

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350 350
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

200-day moving average.

Source: MSCI.

Figure 2.
2250 2250
AUSTRALIA MSCI, FORWARD EARNINGS, & VALUATION
x20
1750 Australia MSCI Index 1750
11/30/23
Blue Angels Implied Price Index* x15
1250 11/23/23 1250

x10

750 750

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250 250
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

* Implied price index calculated using forward earnings times forward P/Es. Monthly through December 2005, weekly thereafter.
Source: Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

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 Forward Revenues & Earnings with Annual Squiggles
Figure 3.
800 800
AUSTRALIA MSCI REVENUES PER SHARE
(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)
750 750

700 700
11/23
650 650
24

600 600
23

550 550

500 500

450 Consensus Forecasts 450

Annual estimates
Forward revenues*
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400 400
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 2005, weekly thereafter.
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Figure 4.
105 105
AUSTRALIA MSCI EARNINGS PER SHARE
95 (analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale) 24 95
11/23

85 23 85

75 75

65 65

55 55

45 45

Consensus Forecasts
35 35
Annual estimates
Forward earnings*

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25 25
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 2005, weekly thereafter.
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 2 / November 30, 2023 / Global Index Briefing: Australia MSCI Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 Annual Growth Squiggles
Figure 5.
12 12
AUSTRALIA MSCI ANNUAL REVENUE GROWTH FORECASTS*
10 10
21

8 8
11 17
6 6
22

4 4
13 16 19
2 2
23
12
0 0

-2 2011 (7.4) 2019 (3.1) 20 -2

14
2012 (0.9) 2020 (-2.1) 18
-4 2013 (3.0) 2021 (9.5) -4
2014 (-2.4) 2022 (5.4)
-6 2015 (-9.2) 2023 (1.4) -6
2016 (3.3)
-8 2017 (7.3) -8
2018 (-3.1) Latest data thru 15 yardeni.com
-10 -10
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Figure 6.
25 25
AUSTRALIA MSCI ANNUAL EARNINGS GROWTH FORECASTS*

20 21 20

15 16 15

10 10
19
13
17
5 5
22
18
0 0
11 20
14
12
-5 2011 (-1.3) 2018 (2.1) -5
2012 (-4.0) 2019 (8.4) 23
2013 (7.5) 2020 (-1.0)
-10 -10
2014 (-1.7) 2021 (20.0)
2015 (-15.1) 2022 (4.1)
-15 2016 (15.4) 2023 (-6.6) 15 -15
2017 (6.3)
Latest data thru yardeni.com
-20 -20
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 3 / November 30, 2023 / Global Index Briefing: Australia MSCI Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 Margins & NERI
Figure 7.
17 17
AUSTRALIA MSCI PROFIT MARGIN
(using analysts’ average earnings and revenues forecasts)
16 16
24

15 15

23
14 11/23 14

13 13

12 12

11
Consensus Forecasts 11
Annual estimates
Forward profit margin* (14.0)
10 10

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9 9
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 2005, weekly thereafter.
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Figure 8.
20 20
AUSTRALIA MSCI INDEX NET EARNINGS REVISIONS*

10 10

0 0

-10 Nov -10

-20 -20

-30 -30
NERI
Sep-13.17
Oct-10.32
Nov-10.05
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-40 -40
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

* Three-month moving average of the number of forward earnings estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentage
of the total number of forward earnings estimates.
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 4 / November 30, 2023 / Global Index Briefing: Australia MSCI Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 Forward Growth & Valuation
Figure 9.
30 30
AUSTRALIA MSCI STEG, STRG, & LTEG
(percent)
25 25

20 LTEG* (3.7) 20
STEG* (0.5)
STRG* (2.6)
15 15

10 10

5 5

0 11/23 0

-5 -5

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-10 -10
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

* STEG is year-ahead forward consensus expected short-term earnings growth. STRG is year-ahead forward consensus expected short-term
revenue growth. LTEG is five-year consensus expected long-term earnings growth.
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Figure 10.
22 22
AUSTRALIA MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE*

20 20

18 18
Forward P/E (15.1)

16 16
11/23

14 14

12 12

10 10

8 8

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6 6
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

* Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December 2005, weekly thereafter.
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 5 / November 30, 2023 / Global Index Briefing: Australia MSCI Yardeni Research, Inc.
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