Predicting the Markets

Chapter 11 Charts:
Predicting Commodities
Yardeni Research, Inc.

November 3, 2022

Dr. Edward Yardeni

Chief Investment Strategist

Mali Quintana
Senior Economist
info@yardenibook.com

Please visit our sites at

www.yardeni.com
blog.yardeni.com

thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents Table Of Contents
Predicting Commodities 1-25

November 3, 2022 / Chapter 11 Charts: Predicting Commodities Yardeni Research, Inc.

www.yardeni.com
 Predicting Commodities
Figure 1.
770 770
670 CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX* 670
(1967=100, ratio scale)
570 11/2 570

470 470

370 370

270 270

170 170

yardeni.com
70 70
52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28

* Weekly from January 9, 1951 to May 26, 1981, then daily. Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops,
hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.
Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Source: Commodity Research Bureau.

Figure 2.
700 700
CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX*
(1967=100, daily)

C
600 600

11/2

500 500

400 400

300 300

yardeni.com
200 200
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.
Note: C = China joined World Trade Organization on December 11, 2001.
Source: Commodity Research Bureau.

Page 1 / November 3, 2022 / Chapter 11 Charts: Predicting Commodities Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
 Predicting Commodities
Figure 3.
540 540
CHINA INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION*
510 (2005=100, sa) 510
480 Sep 480
450 450
420 420
390 390
360 360
330 330
300 300
270 270
240 240
210 210
180 180
150 150
120 120
90 90
60 60
yardeni.com
30 30
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

* Value added basis.

Source: China National Bureau of Statistics and Haver Analytics.

Figure 4.
40 40
CHINA REAL GDP & INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
(yearly percent change)

30 30

20 20

10 10
Sep
Q3

0 0

Real GDP
-10 Industrial Production* -10

yardeni.com
-20 -20
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

* Value added basis.

Source: Haver Analytics.

Page 2 / November 3, 2022 / Chapter 11 Charts: Predicting Commodities Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
 Predicting Commodities
Figure 5.
52 700
CHINA INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION & INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX
48
44
40
600
36
32 11/2
28
24 500

20
16
12 400
8
Sep
4
China Industrial Production*
0 (yearly percent change)
300
-4
-8 CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index**
(1967=100)
-12
yardeni.com
-16 200
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* Value added basis.

** Includes hides, tallow, copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, zinc, tin, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, rosin, rubber, hogs, steers, lard, butter,
soybean oil, cocoa, corn, Kansas City wheat, Minneapolis wheat, and sugar.
Source: Commodity Research Bureau and Haver Analytics.

Figure 6.
52 500
CHINA INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION & COPPER PRICE
48
44
40
36 400
32
28
11/2
24
20
300
16
12
8
Sep
4
China Industrial Production* 200
0 (yearly percent change)
-4
-8 Copper Futures Price**
(cents per pound)
-12
yardeni.com
-16 100
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* Value added basis.

** Nearby futures contract.
Source: Haver Analytics.

Page 3 / November 3, 2022 / Chapter 11 Charts: Predicting Commodities Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
 Predicting Commodities
Figure 7.
22 22
CHINA REQUIRED RESERVE RATIO
21 (percent) 21
20 20
19 Required Reserve Ratio 19
Large Depository Institutions
18 18
Small/Medium Depository Institutions
17 17
16 16
15 15
14 14
13 13
12 12
5/17 10/28
11 11
10 10
9 9
8 8
7 7
6 6
yardeni.com
5 5
85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

Source: People’s Bank of China.

Figure 8.
40 40
CHINA M2 & BANK LOANS
(yearly percent change in yuan)
35 35

30 30
M2
Bank Loans
25 25

20 20

15 15

Sep
10 10

yardeni.com
5 5
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Source: People’s Bank of China.

Page 4 / November 3, 2022 / Chapter 11 Charts: Predicting Commodities Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
 Predicting Commodities
Figure 9.
5500 5500
BALTIC DRY INDEX
(1/4/85=100, daily)
5000 5000

4500 4500

4000 4000

3500 3500

3000 3000

2500 2500

2000 2000

1500 1500
12/24

1000 1000

500 500

yardeni.com
0 0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Source: The Baltic Exchange.

Figure 10.
700 500
INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX & COPPER PRICE
(daily)
650 450

600
400

550 11/2
11/2 350

500
300
450
CRB Raw Industrials
Spot Price Index* 250
400 (1967=100)

Copper Futures Price** 200

350
(cents per pound)

300 150

yardeni.com
250 100
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.
** Nearby futures contract.
Source: Commodity Research Bureau and Haver Analytics.

Page 5 / November 3, 2022 / Chapter 11 Charts: Predicting Commodities Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
 Predicting Commodities
Figure 11.
445 445
390 390
335 BOOM-BUST BAROMETER* 335
280 & BUSINESS CYCLE 280
(four-week average, ratio scale) 10/29
225 225
170 170

115 115

60 60

yardeni.com
5 5
67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27

* Weekly average of CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims, showing four-week average.
Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Source: Commodity Research Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Figure 12.
452 452
407 407
362 BOOM BUST BAROMETER* 362
317 317
272 & BEAR MARKETS IN STOCKS 10/29 272
227 (four-week average, ratio scale) 227
182 182
137 137

92 92

47 47

yardeni.com
2 2
67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27

* Weekly average of CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims, four-week average, showing four-week average.
Note: Shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Yellow areas show bull markets.
Source: Commodity Research Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Page 6 / November 3, 2022 / Chapter 11 Charts: Predicting Commodities Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
 Predicting Commodities
Figure 13.
430 5000
S&P 500 INDEX & BOOM-BUST BAROMETER 4800
390
(weekly) 4600
4400
350 S&P 500 Index 4200
4000
310 Boom-Bust Barometer* 11/2 3800
3600
270 3400
10/29 3200
230 3000
2800
190 2600
2400
150 2200
2000
110 1800
1600
70 1400
1200
30 1000
800
yardeni.com
-10 600
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

* CRB raw industrials spot price index (weekly average) divided by weekly initial unemployment claims, showing four-week moving average.
Source: Commodity Research Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Standard & Poor’s.

Figure 14.
460 250
440 S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & BOOM-BUST BAROMETER
420 (weekly) 10/27
230
400
380
210
360 S&P 500
340 Forward Earnings*
320 190
300 Boom-Bust Barometer**
280 170
yardeni.com

260 10/29
240
150
220
200
180 130
160
140 110
120
100
90
80
60
40 70
20
0 50
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

* Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for the current year and next year.
** CRB raw industrials spot price index (weekly average) divided by weekly initial unemployment claims, showing four-week moving average.
Source: Commodity Research Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Page 7 / November 3, 2022 / Chapter 11 Charts: Predicting Commodities Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
 Predicting Commodities
Figure 15.
250 250
S&P 500 SECTORS PRICE INDEXES DURING BULL MARKET OF 2002-2007
(percent change since October 9, 2002)

Consumer Discretionary (78.3)

200 200
Consumer Staples (40.4)
Energy (242.2)
Financials (92.6)
150
Health Care (41.4) 150
Industrials (125.9)
Information Technology (145.4)
Materials (162.3)
100 Telecommunications Services (117.8) 100
Utilities (172.1)

50 50

0 0

yardeni.com
-50 -50
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Source: Standard & Poor’s.

Figure 16.
400 400
380
MSCI SHARE PRICE INDEXES DURING BULL MARKET OF 2003-2007 380
(percent change in US dollars since October 9, 2002)
360 360
340 340
320 320
300 300
280 280
260 EM* (386.0) 260
240 EMU** (223.7) 240
220 Japan (113.6) 220
200
UK (130.7) 200
US (103.8)
180 180
160 160
140 140
120 120
100 100
80 80
60 60
40 40
20 20
0 0
yardeni.com
-20 -20
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

* EM = Emerging Markets. ** EMU = European Monetary Union.

Source: MSCI.

Page 8 / November 3, 2022 / Chapter 11 Charts: Predicting Commodities Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
 Predicting Commodities
Figure 17.
700 90000
EMERGING MARKETS MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEX (in local currencies)
& INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX
(daily) 80000

600 Emerging Markets

MSCI Stock Price Index 70000
(local currencies)
11/2

CRB Raw Industrials 60000

500 Spot Price Index*
11/2
50000

400
40000

30000
300

20000

yardeni.com
200 10000
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.
Source: MSCI and Commodity Research Bureau.

Figure 18.
2000 700
EMERGING MARKETS MSCI CURRENCY INDEX &
INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX (US$)
(daily)
1800

Emerging Markets 600

MSCI Currency Index*
1600 11/2

CRB Raw Industrials

Spot Price Index** 500
1400

1200
400

1000

300
800

yardeni.com
600 200
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

* Includes Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Philippines,
Poland, Qatar, Russia, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, and United Arab Emirates.
** Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.
Source: MSCI and Commodity Research Bureau.

Page 9 / November 3, 2022 / Chapter 11 Charts: Predicting Commodities Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
 Predicting Commodities
Figure 19.
.22 700
S&P 500 MATERIALS & INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX
(daily)
650
.20

600

.18
11/2 550

.16 500

450
.14
S&P 500 Materials Index
(as a ratio of S&P 500 Index) 400

.12 CRB Raw Industrials 11/2

Spot Price Index* 350
(1967=100)

yardeni.com
.10 300
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.
Source: Standard & Poor’s and Commodity Research Bureau.

Figure 20.

***** Chart Not Available *****

Task: PTMBLOGSPENERGBRENT_BB

KEEP command attempted on missing data

11-03-2022 - 03:17:45

Page 10 / November 3, 2022 / Chapter 11 Charts: Predicting Commodities Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
 Predicting Commodities
Figure 21.
90 90
CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION: WORLD
(million barrels per day, ratio scale)

80 80

Aug
70 70

60 60

yardeni.com
50 50
73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25

Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Source: Energy Information Administration.

Figure 22.
25 25
CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION: WORLD
(yearly percent change)
20 20

15 15

10 10

5 5

0 0

-5 -5

-10 -10
Aug
yardeni.com
-15 -15
74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26

Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Source: Energy Information Administration.

Page 11 / November 3, 2022 / Chapter 11 Charts: Predicting Commodities Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
 Predicting Commodities
Figure 23.

WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE CRUDE OIL PRICE

160 (dollars per barrel)* 160

135 135

110 110

11/2
85 85

60 60

35 35

10 10

-15 -15

yardeni.com
-40 -40
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26

* Monthly from 1946 to 1984, then daily.

Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Source: Haver Analytics.

Figure 24.
425 425
375 CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: GASOLINE 375
325 (1982-84 = 100, ratio scale) Sep 325
275 275

225 225

175 175

125 125

75 75

yardeni.com
25 25
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28

Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Page 12 / November 3, 2022 / Chapter 11 Charts: Predicting Commodities Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
 Predicting Commodities
Figure 25.
12 12
CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION: SAUDI ARABIA
(million barrels a day)

10 10

Aug

8 8

6 6

4 4

yardeni.com
2 2
79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

Source: Energy Information Administration.

Figure 26.
5.5 5.5
CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION: IRAN & IRAQ
(million barrels per day)
5.0 5.0

4.5 4.5

4.0 4.0
Aug
3.5 3.5

3.0 3.0

2.5 2.5

2.0 2.0

1.5 Iran 1.5

Iraq
1.0 1.0

.5 .5

yardeni.com
.0 .0
79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

Source: Energy Information Administration.

Page 13 / November 3, 2022 / Chapter 11 Charts: Predicting Commodities Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
 Predicting Commodities
Figure 27.
60 60
CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION: OPEC & NON-OPEC
(million barrels per day, ratio scale)
50 50
Aug

40 40

30 30

Aug

20 20

OPEC
Non-OPEC

yardeni.com
10 10
79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

Source: Energy Information Administration.

Figure 28.
52 52
CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION: OPEC
50 (as a percent of total world) 50

48 48

46 46

44 44

42 42

40 40

38 38

36 36
Aug
34 34

32 32

30 30

28 28
yardeni.com
26 26
79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

Source: Energy Information Administration.

Page 14 / November 3, 2022 / Chapter 11 Charts: Predicting Commodities Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
 Predicting Commodities
Figure 29.
14.0 14.0
13.5
CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION: UNITED STATES 13.5
(million barrels per day)
13.0 13.0
12.5 12.5
12.0 12.0
11.5 11.5
11.0 11.0
10.5 Aug 10.5
10.0 10.0
9.5 9.5
9.0 9.0
8.5 8.5
8.0 8.0
7.5 7.5
7.0 7.0
6.5 6.5
6.0 6.0
5.5 5.5
5.0 5.0
4.5 4.5
4.0 4.0
yardeni.com
3.5 3.5
73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27

Source: Energy Information Administration.

Figure 30.
1800 14
CRUDE OIL: ACTIVE US RIG COUNT & FIELD PRODUCTION
(weekly)
1600
Rig Count 10/28 12
1400 (units)

1200
Production 10
(million barrels per day, nsa)

1000
8
800

600 10/7 6

400
4
200

yardeni.com
0 2
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

Source: Baker Hughes Inc. and US Department of Energy.

Page 15 / November 3, 2022 / Chapter 11 Charts: Predicting Commodities Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
 Predicting Commodities
Figure 31.
3.4 10.0
US GASOLINE DEMAND & VEHICLE MILES TRAVELED
Aug
3.2
9.5

3.0
9.0

2.8

8.5

2.6 Gasoline Usage

(million barrels per day, 52-wa) 12/25
8.0
2.4 Vehicle Miles Traveled
(trillion miles, 12-month sum)

7.5
2.2

yardeni.com
2.0 7.0
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

Source: US Department of Energy.

Figure 32.
24.0 24.0
GASOLINE FUEL EFFICIENCY IN THE US* Aug
(average miles per gallon)
23.5 23.5

23.0 23.0

22.5 22.5

22.0 22.0

21.5 21.5

21.0 21.0

20.5 20.5

20.0 20.0

yardeni.com
19.5 19.5
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

* Vehicle miles traveled (billion miles, 12-month sum) divided by Gasoline usage (billion barrels per day, 52-wa)
Source: US Department of Energy.

Page 16 / November 3, 2022 / Chapter 11 Charts: Predicting Commodities Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
 Predicting Commodities
Figure 33.
700 160
BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE & INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX

140

600
120
11/2

100
500 11/2

80

400
60
CRB Raw Industrials
Spot Price Index*
40
300 Brent Crude Oil
Futures Price**
(dollars per barrel) 20

yardeni.com
200 0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.
** Nearby futures price.
Source: Commodity Research Bureau and Haver Analytics.

Figure 34.
160 500
FUTURES PRICES*
150

140

130
400
120

110
11/2
100
11/2
90
300
80

70

60
Brent Crude Futures Price
50 (dollars per barrel) 200
40
Copper Futures Price
30 (cents per pound)
20
yardeni.com
10 100
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* Nearby futures price.

Source: Haver Analytics.

Page 17 / November 3, 2022 / Chapter 11 Charts: Predicting Commodities Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
 Predicting Commodities
Figure 35.
4.4 4.4
3.8
WORLD CRUDE OIL REVENUES & OUTLAYS* 3.8
(trillion dollars, annual rate, ratio scale)
3.2 3.2

2.6 2.6

2.0 2.0

1.4 1.4
Crude Oil Revenues & Outlays*
Aug

.8 .8

yardeni.com
.2 .2
75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

* Monthly crude oil production (in mbd) times 365 days times dollar price of a barrel of Brent crude oil.
Note: West Texas Intermediate Spot Price from 1975 TO 1984, Brent Crude oil price thereafter.
Source: Energy Intelligence Administration.

Figure 36.
1075 1075
925 US CRUDE OIL REVENUES & OUTLAYS 925
775 (billion dollars, annualized, ratio scale) 775
Aug
625 625

475 475
United States
Crude Oil Outlays*
325 Petroleum Refineries Shipments 325
(saar)

175 175
Aug

yardeni.com
25 25
85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

* Monthly crude oil production (in mbd) multiplied by 365 days and the price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil.
Source: Energy Intelligence Administration.

Page 18 / November 3, 2022 / Chapter 11 Charts: Predicting Commodities Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
 Predicting Commodities
Figure 37.
800 800
S&P GSCI SOYBEANS INDEX
750 (December 31, 1969=100) 750

700 700

650 650

600 600
11/2
550 550

500 500

450 450

400 400

350 350

300 300

250 250

200 200

150 150
yardeni.com
100 100
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26

Source: Standard & Poor’s.

Figure 38.
340 340
300 US CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: FOOD Sep 300
(1982-84 = 100, ratio scale)
260 260
220 220

180 180

140 140

100 100

60 60

yardeni.com
20 20
47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Page 19 / November 3, 2022 / Chapter 11 Charts: Predicting Commodities Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
 Predicting Commodities
Figure 39.
12 12
WORLD: POPULATION & PROJECTIONS yardeni.com
(billions)

10 10

Estimates (through 2019)

Projections (2020 through 2099)
8 8

6 6

4 4

2 2
50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00

Source: United Nations.

Figure 40.
2.5 2.5
WORLD: POPULATION & PROJECTIONS yardeni.com
(yearly percent change)

2.0 2.0

Estimates (through 2019)

Projections (2020 through 2099)
1.5 1.5

1.0 1.0

.5 .5

.0 .0
50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00

Source: United Nations.

Page 20 / November 3, 2022 / Chapter 11 Charts: Predicting Commodities Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
 Predicting Commodities
Figure 41.
5.5 5.5
WORLD: FERTILITY RATE yardeni.com
(children per woman)
5.0 5.0

4.5 4.5
Estimates (through 2019)
4.0 Projections (2020 through 2095) 4.0

3.5 3.5

3.0 3.0

2.5 2.5

2.0 2.0

1.5 1.5

1.0 1.0
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095

Source: United Nations.

Figure 42.
70 70
WORLD: URBAN POPULATION & PROJECTIONS
(as a percent of total population)
65 65

60 60
Estimates (through 2019)
55 Projections (2020 through 2050) 55
yardeni.com

50 50

45 45

40 40

35 35

30 30

25 25
50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Source: United Nations.

Page 21 / November 3, 2022 / Chapter 11 Charts: Predicting Commodities Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
 Predicting Commodities
Figure 43.
2730 2730
2430 Nixon Ford Carter Reagan Bush I Clinton Bush II Obama Trump 2430
2130 2130
1830 1830
GOLD PRICE* 11/2
1530 1530
1230 (dollars per ounce, ratio scale) 1230
930 930

630 630

330 330

yardeni.com
30 30
68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26

* Cash price, London gold bullion, PM Fix. Monthly from 1968 through 1974, then daily.
Source: The Wall Street Journal and Haver Analytics.

Figure 44.
1000 1000
GOLD PRICE* / CPI
950 950
900 900
850 850
800 800
750 750
700 700
650 650
600 600
Sep
550 550
500 500
450 450
400 400
350 350
300 300
250 250
200 200
150 150
yardeni.com
100 100
75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27

* Cash price. London gold bullion, PM Fix.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Wall Street Journal, and Haver Analytics.

Page 22 / November 3, 2022 / Chapter 11 Charts: Predicting Commodities Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
 Predicting Commodities
Figure 45.
200 2500
GOLD PRICE & FED’S MAJOR TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR INDEX

180 Gold Price*

(dollars per ounce)
2000
Nominal FRB Advanced
160 Foreign Economies Trade-Weighted
Dollar Index** 11/2
(January 2006=100)
1500
140

10/28
120
1000

100

500
80

yardeni.com
60 0
75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27

* Cash price, London gold bullion, PM Fix.

** Countries included in the Advanced Foreign Economies (AFE) index: Australia, Canada, Euro Area, Japan, Sweden, Switzerland, and the
United Kingdom.
Source: Federal Reserve Board, The Wall Street Journal, and Haver Analytics.

Figure 46.
2200 700
GOLD PRICE & INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX
(weekly) 660
2000

Gold Price* 620

1800 (dollars per ounce)
580
11/1
1600 CRB Raw Industrials 540
Spot Price Index**
1400 (1967=100) 500

460
1200
420
1000
380

800 340

600 300

260
400
220
200
180
yardeni.com
0 140
75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27

* Cash price London gold bullion, PM Fix.

** Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.
Source: Commodity Research Bureau, The Wall Street Journal, and Haver Analytics..

Page 23 / November 3, 2022 / Chapter 11 Charts: Predicting Commodities Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
 Predicting Commodities
Figure 47.
2150 2150
GOLD CASH PRICE
D A
(dollars per troy ounce, daily)
1975 1975

1800 1800

1625 11/2 1625

1450 1450

1275 1275

1100 1100

925 925

750 750

575 575

400 400

yardeni.com
225 225
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

200-day moving average

Note: D = On July 26, 2012, ECB President Mario Draghi pledged to do "whatever it takes" to defend the euro. A = On April 4, 2013, Bank of Japan
implemented "Abenomics" monetary policy.
Source: The Wall Street Journal and Haver Analytics.

Figure 48.
2300 -1.5
GOLD PRICE & 10-YEAR TIPS YIELD
(daily)
2100 -1.0

-.5
1900

.0
1700
11/2
.5
1500
1.0
1300
11/2 1.5
Gold Price*
1100 (dollars per ounce)
2.0

900 10-Year TIPS Yield

(percent, inverted scale) 2.5

700 3.0

yardeni.com
500 3.5
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* Cash price. London gold bullion, PM Fix.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, The Wall Street Journal, and Haver Analytics.

Page 24 / November 3, 2022 / Chapter 11 Charts: Predicting Commodities Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
 Predicting Commodities
Figure 49.
1000 1000
S&P GOLDMAN SACHS COMMODITY INDEX
(nearby futures price, daily)
900 900

800 800

700 700
11/2
600 600

500 500

400 400

300 300

200 200

yardeni.com
100 100
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26

Source: Standard & Poor’s and Haver Analytics.

Figure 50.
1000 150
S&P GOLDMAN SACHS COMMODITY INDEX & OIL PRICE
(daily)

800
100
Goldman Sachs Commodity Index
(nearby futures price)
11/2
600
West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Price Index
(dollars per barrel)
50

400

0
200

yardeni.com
0 -50
85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

Source: Standard & Poor’s and Haver Analytics.

Page 25 / November 3, 2022 / Chapter 11 Charts: Predicting Commodities Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
Copyright (c) Yardeni Research, Inc. 2022. All rights reserved. The information
contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not
necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation or
warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or
correctness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the other
information provided are subject to change without notice. All reports and podcasts posted on
http://blog.yardeni.com
www.yardeni.com, blog.yardeni.com, and YRI’s Apps are issued
without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs
of any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell
any securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide
to future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, but
should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company’s stock.
Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed as
recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security--including mutual funds, futures
contracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments.

The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed on any Yardeni Research, Inc.
product, service, report, email or website are proprietary to Yardeni Research, Inc. and
constitute valuable intellectual property. No material from any part of www.yardeni.com,
http://blog.yardeni.com
blog.yardeni.com, and YRI’s Apps may be downloaded, transmitted,
broadcast, transferred, assigned, reproduced or in any other way used or otherwise
disseminated in any form to any person or entity, without the explicit written consent of
Yardeni Research, Inc. All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from Yardeni
Research, Inc. shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietary
and intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. Yardeni
Research, Inc. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property,
including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/or
to track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means,
now known or hereafter devised. Yardeni Research, Inc. reserves the right, without further
notice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civil
remedies for the violation of its rights.

The recipient should check any email and any attachments for the presence of viruses.
Yardeni Research, Inc. accepts no liability for any damage caused by any virus transmitted
by this company’s emails, website, blog and Apps. Additional information available on
request.
requests@yardeni.com