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Possible Preconceptions/Misconceptions:
That the probability does not change when you pull out each marble. Also, that the probability is only done by least likely or most likely
rather than actual fractional data.
Probing questions:
What is probability?
How do we use probability?
Which color is most likely to be pulled?
What color is least likely to be pulled?
EXPLAIN: Concepts Explained and Vocabulary Defined:
We will then discuss how the probability changes every time that a marble is pulled from the bag. We will go over how it changes and
what it changes to. The main concept explained in probability and the changing measurement of outcomes for an event.
What changed when we pulled a marbled out?
What is the new probability?
Why did the probability change?
Vocabulary:
Probability
Change
Likely
Unlikely
Most likely
Equally likely
Certain
ELABORATE: Applications and Extensions:
They will apply their knowledge of probability when completing the assessment work sheet where they determine which color was most,
least, and equally likely. they will apply what they know about probability and what they know about likeliness. They will use real data they
took during the lesson and determine the likeliness.
EVALUATE: