2020 IEEE International Autumn Meeting on Power, Electronics and Computing (ROPEC 2020).
Ixtapa, Mexico
ADAPTIVE RNA MODEL FOR VERY SHORT
ENERGY FORECAST VALIDATED IN THE NEW
CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC CONTEXT
P. A. J. COUTO; C. A. F. ROCHA;
F. P. MONTEIRO; S. C. A. MONTEIRO
Federal University of Western Para
Campus Oriximina
flavia.monteiro@ufopa.edu.br
Abstract​—Between problems in the power grid expansions,
distributed generation, energy market customers migrations,
commercial losses and other problems, power distribution
companies seek to improve both energy quality and costs
reductions, enhancing profitability. A basic and crucial point for
any energy company is how much energy to buy. That is,
determining the amount of energy to be purchased as close as
possible to that needed to serve its customers, avoiding financial
losses by consuming more or less than they have. However, this is
not a trivial problem, as energy consumption depends on several
exogenous and endogenous factors, such as all the problems
previously mentioned, in addition to economic, social, climatic,
political and cultural aspects, among others. Thus, energy
forecasts are realized with aid of both statistical analyzes and
computational techniques. This article exposes a very short and
short term energy forecast model using Neural Networks and
feedback, applied in the new global context: the new coronavirus
pandemic and its implications for energy consumption. The
method was implemented with a real consumption dataset
provided by the Brazilian energy company Equatorial from Para
State and from Maranhao State. Very short term energy
forecasts results reached a MAPE of around 1.2% in a 15-day
window for both States, Para and Maranhao. For short term
energy forecasts, results for both States were 3 possible scenarios
in a window from June to December 2020, due to the
unpredictability of the pandemic, especially in Brazil, which so
far has shown no signs of reducing the contagion curve.
Keywords—Energy Forecast; Energy Market;
Networks; Coronavirus Pandemic.
I. I​NTRODUCTION
From generation to consumption, electricity goes through
several phases: generation, transmission and distribution.
Considering each of these phases impacts on energy
consumption, operators and energy companies' concern is
accurately monitoring consumption and making it compatible
with generation, because the amount of energy in question is
too high for battery banks. This is the main motivation for an
adequate energy purchase planning by each energy company
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M. E. L. TOSTES; U. H. BEZERRA
Federal University of Para
CEAMAZON/PPGEE/UFPA
tostes@ufpa.br
L. S. SOARES; E. C. S. SILVA
Equatorial Energia Para
lazaro.filho@celpa.com.br
and regular monitoring by energy regulatory agencies,
avoiding accidents in the entire system, such as rationing.
Despite the complexity of correlating all factors required,
there are several studies to improve energy forecast models,
aiming to approximate the amounts of generation and
consumption of users. According to [1], the forecast is not an
end itself, but only a means for a consequent decision making
by providing information, aiming at certain objectives. And
[2] complements the idea, remembering that forecasts are
estimates of how the demanding market will behave in the
future, these coming from speculations about the market's
potential for purchase.
Most of the forecasting methods proposed in the last
decades relate and, therefore, depend on the historical data of
the energy consumption time series since the modeling stage,
dividing into two main categories: statistical methods and
intelligence methods artificial [3]. In general, artificial
intelligence methods can obtain more accurate results in most
real-world applications and have been widely applied to the
prediction of energy consumption [4].
Therefore, in this article, machine learning is used to
perform injected energy forecasting in the very short term
using artificial neural network methods. The data used were
provided by the Equatorial Energia concessionaire, which
represents actual consumption information from customers.
Neural
The very short-term forecasts were made in 15-day and
6-month short-term to both dataset: Equatorial Para and
Equatorial Maranhao.
Furthermore, with the arrival of COVID-19, a series of
actions were taken to control social distance, in which the
blocking or closing of several companies and sectors, resulting
in a profile change of these companies energy consumption
[5]. Schools, restaurants, offices were forced to stop or reduce
working hours for a common good. In this atypical scenario, it
was necessary to reinvent our routines, adapting to new habits,
since no one was prepared for a global pandemic. Small and
 2020 IEEE International Autumn Meeting on Power, Electronics and Computing (ROPEC 2020). Ixtapa, Mexico

Large companies had to cut expenses, reducing the number of In relation to costs, in addition to the emergency purchase
employees. So, aiming to help the consumer in such a difficult of energy at much more expensive prices to cover the deficit, a
time, the National Electric Energy Agency in Brazil (ANEEL) penalty is imposed on the concessionaire who contracts a
suspended the power cut by energy companies for 90 days. demand that is less than the amount actually realized. On the
other hand, the opposite also implies financial losses for the
The proposed model includes this bias between energy
concessionaire in case of resale of the surplus at a price below
consumption and possible environmental and economic
that previously paid.
impacts, so it is suitable for predicting energy in different
scenarios using deep neural network techniques.
III - D​EEP​ N​EURAL​ N​ETWORKS
II. T​HE​ B​RAZILIAN​ E​NERGY​ M​ARKET According to [9], neural networks reproduce the behavior
of the human nervous system in a computational format, from
Traditionally, the various agents in the power sector make mathematical equations, whose main block is the neuron,
their decisions based on the demand projection made by the shown in Figure 1 in biological and artificial form.
Energy Research Company (EPE - Empresa de Pesquisa
Energética), and following the market projection methodology
available in Technical Note 292/2008-SRE/ANEEL. Time
series analyzes are performed, considering the extrapolation of
past trends to estimate future behaviors [6]. EPE studies
usually contemplate the projection of energy demand over a
10-year horizon, serving as a reference for market planning.
EPE studies present premises for determining the dynamics of
energy consumption, such as demographic, macroeconomic
and sectoral data that provide energy efficiency and
self-production actions [7].
The frequent and quantity of exits of consumers to the free (a)
energy market [6], use of diesel generators or renewable
sources, mainly photovoltaic, should also be included in the
calculation of the forecast of future energy, given the growth
of these services in the current energy market.
The consumption and performance of the economy are
closely interdependent, so that the analysis of the electricity
market is initiated from the construction of macroeconomic
scenarios and the possible growth paths of the economy. In
addition to demographic scenarios and sectorial assumptions
to constitute market arguments, other conditions such as
climatic and cultural conditions are responsible for creating
the different consumption scenarios in the time horizon of
interest. (b)
Planning takes place on a monthly basis and, from there,
on an annual basis, forming the short-term horizon, which can
Figure 1. (a) Biological Neuron[9] And (b) Artificial
be extended to estimate correspondences in the medium and
Neuron [10].
long term horizons [8]. However, the estimation must start at
the distribution boundaries of each concessionaire, considering In this representation of an artificial neuron, the electrical
all the conditions and growth possibilities of the region served impulses from other neurons, figured in terms of ‘x’ which in
with precision, but maintaining the robustness to attend, even, addition to being input signals, it is also the data that feeds the
occasional events. model. The neuron acquires one or more signals for input and
delivers only one output signal, which can be shared as an
As part of the control of the agencies responsible for the
output signal from the network or input signal to the next
planning of the National Interconnected System and power
neurons in the next layer[10].
generating plants, demand values are expected at peak and
off-peak times every three years in the connections of the Axons and dendrites are figured in terms of ‘Wm’, which
energy distribution system of all concessionaires in operation mathematically demonstrate only the synapses, where the
in Brazil. In the execution of the three-year projection, with intensity of the connection occurs and sets up the so-called
the exception of the first, all other years are subject to change. synaptic weight, represented in terms of ‘W’. The entries will
be shown to the neuron. The inputs will be shown to the
neuron, then they will be multiplied by the corresponding

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 2020 IEEE International Autumn Meeting on Power, Electronics and Computing (ROPEC 2020). Ixtapa, Mexico
synaptic weights, creating moderate inputs, rather, the first
input X multiplies by the first input W, so on, feeding the
model [10].
Afterwards we have the linear combiner, figured by ‘∑’,
which must group the totality of input signals already
moderated with the synaptic weights in order to generate an
activation potential. The Bias ‘B​k​’ input signal is called the
activation threshold which must determine the appropriate
level so that a certain value is generated by the activation
trigger with the product from the linear combiner.
Soon after, the result of the difference between linear
combiner and activation threshold is represented by the ‘U’ as
activation potential, with two possible cases: if the value of U
is greater than 0, an excitatory potential will be produced; if
the first statement is not satisfied, the potential will be
inhibitory. Subsequently, there is the activation function
figured by the φ(.) where the output of a neuron should be
delimited in a space of values. Finally, the output signal e will
be used as an input input for other neurons that are
sequentially interconnected [10].
According to [11], the technique used for the expected
projection is Deep Learning, a type of machine learning. An
advantage of using Deep Learning is its ability to learn from
large amounts of data and unsupervised, thus being a valuable
tool for Big Data, where most of the data is of this nature, also
called unstructured data. In addition, Deep Learning
algorithms present an innovative approach, since they
dispense with much of the pre-processing by automatically
generating invariant properties in their hierarchical
representation layers.
III. P​ROPOSED​ M​ETHOD​ ​AND​ ​RESULTS
The entire process of designing the prediction model was
guided by the steps of KDD, Knowledge Discovery in
Databases. This methodology basically consists of five stages:
data selection/acquisition, pre-processing, data transformation,
data mining and evaluation/interpretation of results [12].
The dataset used for training and validation of the
prediction model relies on actual injected energy data in MWh
obtained by the distribution frontier, in an acquisition time of
15 minutes, which are aggregated in each hour and grouped by
regional (for example, WEST regional of Para) or by the entire
chosen state (Para or Maranhao). What makes this dynamic
possible was the direct access to the Equatorial company
database.
For the training of the models, the period selected was
from January 2009 to April 2020, for Maranhão forecast, and
from January 2012 to April 2020 for Pará. For the very short
term process, different periods were also used for each State,
from May 1st to 24th for Maranhao, and from May 1st to May
31st for Para. This difference both in the selection of training
samples and in the validation of samples is due to the time that
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each state carries out its consolidation of its energy
measurements.
Even though the data was obtained directly from the
company's database, outliers were identified in the
pre-processing stage, which were properly treated with the
help of the company's technical team.
The stage of data transformation was also essential for the
success of the projection model, as it was necessary to apply
several transformations to improve the learning of deep neural
networks. The first was using the week ID and weekday ID,
instead of simply using the day and month as input attributes.
Another entry attribute used to improve assertiveness was to
inform if the day to be projected is a holiday. Also in this
KDD stage, as shown in Figure 2, the attributes that carry
information about temporal resolution are encoded using the
One-hot vector technique. Also for the purpose of facilitating
the learning of deep neural networks.
Continuing with the definitions of the input attributes for
the model, the injected energy measurements were organized
in two ways and were named annual window and daily
window. As the name suggests, it is possible to train the model
with different numbers of measurements according to the
number of years and days that the specialist wants. As the
model uses hourly resolution, and the number of attributes
related to temporal resolution is fixed (60 = 52 + 7 + 1). The
total number of attributes ​A is calculated, considering that ​A​w
represents the annual window and ​Dw​ corresponds to the daily
window, as follows: ​A =​ (​Aw​ ​ + ​Dw​ ​) × 24 + 60.
The values of selected injected energy measurements also
need a standardization process called ​StandartScaler​, available
in the ​Scikit-learning library [18]. In the modeling stage, after
exhaustive tests, the following parameters were defined:
Cconfiguration parameters
Parameter Value
kernel_initializer he_normal
Number of hidden layers 7
Number of neurons in 200
each hidden layer
relu
Hidden layer activator
ANN
Adam
Optimizer
Learning rate 0.0001
Number of neurons in the 24
output layer
Output Layer Activator relu
Dropout in the output 2%
layer
 2020 IEEE International Autumn Meeting on Power, Electronics and Computing (ROPEC 2020). Ixtapa, Mexico

horizons as is the case that will be presented in the graphs of

Both Brazilian States, Para and Maranhao, followed the
same parameter settings. To implement deep neural networks,
the ​Tensorflow library [17] was used, as it has several tools
and resources that facilitate the development and creation of
models. Python [16] was used, which, in addition to the
libraries already mentioned, has ​NumPy [18] and ​Pandas [18],
which improve performance in relation to vectors, matrices
and data in general.
In the model's output layer, 24 output attributes are used,
each representing a projected time of day. When the validation
are depleted samples, the outputs become the new inputs of
the model, thus allowing to carry out the projection in more
the following figures.
For the projection of the short-term horizon, the specialist
is allowed to interfere in the projection process and enter the
adjustment that was planned for a certain period.
This adjustment was very important in times of pandemic
of the new coronavirus, and it is proving to be assertive, as can
be seen in the results of the forecasts.
The results can be divided by state, according to Figures 3
and 4.

Figure 2. Modeling of the Deep Artificial Neural Network

Figure 3. Results - Equatorial Para

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 2020 IEEE International Autumn Meeting on Power, Electronics and Computing (ROPEC 2020). Ixtapa, Mexico
Figure 4. Results - Equatorial Maranhao
It is observed that the results found by the proposed model
were very close to the real ones, in green. The green star
symbolizes which of the scenarios the actual injected energy
followed in the months after validation. In the case of Pará, in
the very short term, the MAPE was 1.17% and that of
Maranhão was 2.2%. Both found satisfactory results with the
proposed method, with the aid of RNA and feedback.
It is important to highlight that the developers group is
already working on implementing improvements in the
method through the use of genetic algorithms.
IV. C​ONCLUSION
The objective of the presented work was to use the method of
deep neural networks in conjunction with the feedback
concept to predict the energy injected by the energy
distribution frontier in a very short and short term, thus aiming
to assist the companies Equatorial Pará and Equatorial
Maranhão future energy purchases in the context of the impact
of the new coronavirus pandemic.
It is important to mention that the profile of energy
consumption in the pandemic has completely changed, with no
period with similar characteristics. This is because many
companies, schools, restaurants and industries have reduced or
even stopped their operation completely. Thus, the proposed
method proved to be robust enough to predict the amount of
energy to be injected at the distribution frontier with a MAPE
of 1.2% for both cases analyzed, both for the city of Belém, in
Pará, and in São Luis, in Maranhão.
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The method also showed consistent results in the short term,
that is, from June to December 2020. As a result for this case,
the method presented three possible scenarios, one pessimistic,
with a low level of injected energy by the end of 2020, one
with a moderate or medium profile, and an optimistic scenario,
with the return of activities starting in July, which really
happened in these two states of Brazil.
In addition, it is important to stress the importance of energy
projection, as prediction errors directly affect the company's
earnings and impact the entire National Interconnected
System. Validated in the context of the new coronavirus
pandemic, the proposed method presents itself as an
alternative in the decision to purchase energy in the very short
term (15 days), since it gives the concessionaire a way to have
a pre-panorama of what will need to be injected energy into its
distribution network, according to the scenario expected by the
company.
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