Professional Documents
Culture Documents
DOI:10.34117/bjdv6n11-058
Cristiano Roos
Doutor
Universidade Federal de Santa Maria
Endereço: Av. Roraima, 1000, Cidade Universitária. Santa Maria – RS, 97105-900
E-mail: cristiano.roos@ufsm.br
ABSTRACT
The planning about the composition of the national electric energy matrix, determined by the growing
demand and population environmental concern, must be based in a best use of renewable sources, as
the photovoltaic solar. Its possible integration in urban areas and use throughout the year in most
parts of Brazil’s territory make this an attractive alternative of investment. In this context, this work
aims to analyze economically the installation of grid-connected photovoltaic panels in a medium-
sized industry in Porto Alegre. Information and data were measured in the field for its development,
which configures the applied nature of the research, which has modeling and simulation as technical
procedure. Two photovoltaic systems were technically dimensioned, one of 23.76 kWp and another
of 39.6 kWp. Both combined with the variation of the Minimum Acceptable Rate of Return of the
investor and the tariff flag in use, configured the 24 scenarios modeled. For the economic viability
were used the Engineering Economy methods such as NPV, IRR, simple payback and discounted
payback, in addition to the LCOE calculation. As main result, the scenario with the highest economic
attractiveness, corresponding to the 39.6 kWp system, obtained NPV of R$ 334,502.27, IRR of 2.79%
per month, payback period of 40 months, discounted payback period of 50 months and LCOE of
0.1374 R$/kWh. Thus, it was possible to conclude that there is economic viability for the projects
proposed. This is because in 16 scenarios the IRR exceeded the MARR considered for the medium-
sized industry used as a case in this work.
RESUMO
O planejamento acerca da composição da matriz energética elétrica nacional, determinado pelas
crescentes demanda de energia e preocupação ambiental da população, deve ser baseado em um
melhor aproveitamento de fontes renováveis, como a solar fotovoltaica. Sua possível integração ao
meio urbano e aproveitamento durante todo ano na maior parte do Brasil fazem dessa uma atrativa
opção de investimento. Nesse âmbito, este trabalho objetiva analisar economicamente a instalação de
1 INTRODUCTION
The use of renewable energy resources shows a growing trend in the current world, a fact that
is due not only to environmental concerns, but also to an increase in the energy demand as a result of
the economic recovery in developing countries (PEREIRA, 2007). In Brazil it is no different, and
thus an increment for the electricity production is assumed, a situation that highlights issues about
organization for the maintenance of its supply, and consequently for the expansion and diversification
of the national energy matrix. To ensure that such diversification indicates a perspective of greater
solidity and economic reliability, the decisions on this subject, according to the Energy Research
Office (2016), must be taken well in advance, which increases the challenge of energy planning.
In fact, a significant portion of the national production depends on hydroelectric power, which
is a questionable source about its sustainability and that, according to the National Electric Energy
Agency (ANEEL) (2019), corresponds to 60.85% of the brazilian electricity production. In this
scenario, the solar photovoltaic source represents a promising alternative due either to the capacity to
generate electricity in an elegant way or to a largely integration with the urban environment (DAVI,
2016). These characteristics together with the Brazilian potential for exploration throughout the year,
according to Pereira (2007) because the country is mostly located in the Intertropical Convergence
Zone, makes this solution an attractive application for companies and other investors in general.
It is notable the need for a greater number of applied studies in order to enhance the use of
photovoltaic systems, based on the dissemination of information and stimulation of the market. The
importance of the academic environment for this theme is thanks to its introduction into national
scenario has been constituted in pilot projects, which are developed mainly in universities and
research centres over the last decades. (FERREIRA, 2018).
2 THEORETICAL BASIS
2.1 BRAZILIAN SCENARIO FOR PV GENERATION
The use of solar photovoltaic power generation is growing in Brazil, but according to ANEEL
(2019) it still represents only 1.21% of the National Interconnected System production. A greater
economic viability for photovoltaic systems is expected, when assuming both a tariff maintenance
over time and a lowest cost of products, considering parameters of initial investment, capacity factors
and operational and maintenance costs (ENERGY RESEARCH OFFICE, 2016). But despite the
considerable potential for photovoltaic solar energy generation in its territory, even higher than in
countries that already use largely this source, Brazil still has a lack of incentives to enable projects in
this direction (BIRTH, 2017). Related to this, according to Silva (2015), the initial cost of the system
represents the main obstacle, especially for small installations. It is worth to mention that, by the same
author, the availability of other clean energy sources, which nowadays are economically more
attractive than the solar source in the country, delays the application of policies like those found in
other countries. However, public policies have been created by the National Government to
encourage the growth of this technology.
The Distributed Generation Development Program (ProGD) allows, with the creation and
extension of credit lines and financing projects, the installation of distributed generation systems
(VALE et al., 2017). The program intends to stimulate the energy generation by consumers
themselves with the exploitation of renewable sources, especially the solar photovoltaic (MINISTRY
OF MINES AND ENERGY, 2015). As mentioned, the initial investment of these projects represents
a crucial obstacle, and thus the ProGD also provides incentives to manufacturers through professional
training and equipment for distributed generation systems (MINISTRY OF MINES AND ENERGY,
2015). Furthermore, in the case of imported products for photovoltaic applications, the tax rate is
reduced from 14% to 2% and, extending it to the fiscal field, the program also determines the
application of the taxes ICMS and PIS / COFINS to the final energy consumption, with the portion
generated by the consumer already discounted (MINISTRY OF MINES AND ENERGY, 2015). The
dependence of the domestic market on imported equipment is a fact that increases the installation
3 METHODS
The classification of a research is equally important as the description of its methodological
procedures, and it is possible from the determination of criteria. Following the definitions of
Prodanov and Freitas (2013), this research can be classified according to: the technique used:
quantitative, because it translates information into number to analyze them; the intended use: applied,
because it aims to provide knowledge for a practical application in order to solve a specific problem;
the purpose: descriptive, because it intends to describe the characteristics of a phenomenon and
establish relationship among its variables; and as proposed by Miguel (2012), to the technical
procedures: modeling and simulation, because it involves the use of computational and mathematical
methods to describe and simulate the operation of a system.
As previously shown, from the approach of other works to similar problems, the following
parameters were defined to calculate the economic viability of this research: PV systems acquisition,
maintenance and operation costs, depreciation of equipment, minimum acceptable rate of return,
monetary correction and electricity costs. The acquisition cost of the solar photovoltaic panels, as
well as the other necessary equipment for the system assembly, were obtained from quotes made by
a company of the segment from the city of Santa Maria, Rio Grande do Sul. The useful life of the
equipment and their average costs for maintenance and operation were also determined by the same
company. Based on the useful life of each equipment, their depreciations were calculated by the
straight line method, which attributes an equal rate of depreciation for each period (FINANCIAL
DICTIONARY, 2018).
The MARR was informed by the company used as a scenario for this study, in line with a
generic rate defined for any investment made by them. To determine the inflation applied to the
period, the average annual rates of the last 10 years were considered, based on data from the Citizen's
Calculator (CENTRAL BANK OF BRAZIL, 2018), with the value corrected by the Broad Consumer
Price Index (IPCA), calculated by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The
electricity tariff, which indicates the cost paid by the scenario company, was obtained through the
electricity bills provided by them. Such documents were also used to quantify the necessary potential
of the proposed generation systems.
With the purpose of developing a broader analysis, in which more than one investment option
is considered, different conditions were used to model a total of 24 scenarios. This number was
reached by a combination of two electric power generation projects, three variations of MARR and
4 RESULTS
4.1 DATA COLLECTION AND SCENARIOS
In order to determine the electric energy consumption in the company's building, the electricity
bills were analyzed, which later were also used to size the appropriate commercial PV system model.
These documents, issued by the State Electricity Distribution Company (CEEE-D), contain specified
the monthly electric energy consumption. In the period analyzed, from August 2017 to July 2018, the
minimum daily consumption registered was 81.25 kWh, in August 2017, while the maximum was
134.57 kWh, in February 2018. Throughout the period investigated, the average daily consumption
was 109.12 kWh, being this value the basis to size technically the system.
The sizing of the proposed solutions was developed together with a company from Santa Maria,
that is responsible to instalate the systems. A considerable variation in the monthly consumption of
the company was observed, indicating an average of 2,326 kWh per month. The first project intends
to supply the minimum demand, presented mainly in the winter months, that indicates approximately
75% of the average monthly consumption throughout the year. The second project aims to meet
approximately 125% of the monthly average demand, since it has to guarantee the supply in the
summer months, when this value is virtually reached, or even being considered possible expansions
in the company's installation. Both systems, with their technical details, are presented in Table 1.
To assemble the whole system, it is recommended a 25 kW inverter for the one with the lowest
capacity and a 30 kW inverter for the one with the highest capacity. Furthermore, 4 Surge Protection
Devices (SPDs) must be used in each one of the systems. With this information it was possible to
Braz. J. of Develop., Curitiba, v. 6, n. 11 , p.84986-85000, nov. 2020. ISSN 2525-8761
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Brazilian Journal of Development
estimate the maintenance costs for each one of them, which represents an important parameter for
keeping the efficiency of photovoltaic systems. The maintenance needed to the systems are the
cleaning of panels, which has the cost proportional to the number of installed cells, as well as the
replacement of the SPDs and inverters in line with their useful life.
The SPDs have a unit cost of approximately R$ 200.00 and must be replaced whenever an
electric discharge or an overvoltage reaches the electric grid, being neutralized by such devices. The
estimating frequency of change, which depends on the atmospheric conditions and anomalies in the
electric power grid, was every 5 years, as reported by the company consulted, based on their historical
data of this service provision. According to the same company, the costs of inverters are R$ 24,500.00
for the 25 kW model and R$ 28,000.00 for the 30 kW one. This device, used to alternate the direct
current to alternating current, must be changed every 10 years of use. The maintenance relations of
costs and frequencies for the systems are visible in Table 2.
The amount charged for electricity was also obtained through the bills issued by CEEE-D and
provided by the company in study, in which the taxes are already included. So only the value related
to the tariff flags system was added in order to get the final tariff rate. This factor indicates the
condition of electricity generation in the period and has been in force since 2015. It is represented by
three colors of flag: green, yellow and red, while the red flag is divided in level 1 and level 2. Thereby
is stipulated whether there is or not an increase in the value of electric energy (NATIONAL
ELECTRIC ENERGY AGENCY, 2015). For the green flag, which indicates the most favorable
generation condition, there is no increase in the cost. For the yellow flag, the increase is R$ 0.01 per
kWh of electricity supplied. For the red flag, which represents the most expensive condition for
energy generation, there is an increase of R$ 0.03 for level 1 and of R$ 0.05 for level 2, per kWh.
For the first period the value of R$ 0.770051 R$/kWh was used as base, according to the value
obtained in the last month analyzed and then, for the future periods, it was corrected with the
corresponding average annual inflation rate. This value is equal to 6.0529% per year and was
calculated by the compound interest rate formula. The MARR, informed by the company at a generic
Green flag 1 5 9 13 17 21
Yellow flag 2 6 10 14 18 22
As observed in Table 4, based on the positive NPV results, the scenarios 1, 5, 13 and 17 are
considered economically viable and only the scenarios 9 and 21 are non-viable. This is confirmed by
the calculation of the discounted payback period, in which the non-viable alternatives do not present
a return period within the 300 months of analysis. The viable scenarios indicate different periods of
payback, ranging between reasonable terms, such as 53 months (4 years and 5 months) in scenario
13, or even longer, as 107 months (8 years and 11 months) in scenario 5. It is also visible that for a
shallow study, in which the payback period could be considered sufficient, all the projects would be
viable, a fact that demonstrates the importance of bringing the cash flow values to the present period
based on the MARR of the company. The MARR, by the way, also proved to be a determining factor
that when adopted its highest value, of 3.0% per month, influenced negatively for the economic
viability of the projects.
The table 5 presents the results of NPV, IRR, payback period and discounted payback period
methods for the scenarios 4, 8, 12, 16, 20 and 24. An addition of R$ 0.05 per kWh consumed is
considered in the tariff, according to the red flag level 2. As can be predicted for this case, the values
obtained from the methods are the most favorable to the economic viability of the investment projects,
since it represents the highest increase in the energy tariff. Even if they constitute the most
advantageous scenarios, their analysis is important due to the tariff reality that has been paid by the
company, in which 7 of the 12 provided bills pointed to the red flag level 2 as additional cost.
Based on this method, the highest generation capacity project is the most favorable, precisely
due to generating a high production. This information matches the results presented by the other
methods, in which the same project proved to be more advantageous. In this case, the LCOE results
obtained were 0.16056863 R$/kWh for the 2,592 kWh system and 0.1384 R$/kWh for the 4,320 kWh
system.
5 CONCLUSION
This work corroborates, therefore, to the global need to seek new alternatives of electricity
generation, given the trend of increasing demand and the need for more sustainable conditions of
generation. These circumstances indicate a reality with a more diversified energy matrix and a better
use of renewable sources, such as the solar photovoltaic.
The scenarios 16, 20 and 24, composed of the highest installed power and related to the red flag
level 2, presented the highest Internal Rate of Return, that is equal to 2.79% per month. The highest
value obtained from the NPV method was associated with the scenario 16 as well and it is equal to
R$ 334,502.27. The scenario 13, the less favorable with the same conditions of MARR and installed
capacity, presented a difference of only R$ 20,508.45, which indicates a good financial attractiveness
for all scenarios with these conditions. For the project with the lowest power capacity, the highest
IRR is equal to 2.47% per month, also derived from the red flag level 2 scenarios. While the highest
NPV obtained for this condition is R$ 185,409.35 in scenario 4.
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