Professional Documents
Culture Documents
FEBRUARY 2023
CONTENTS
1 The smart solution
5 Key findings
A Renewables Powerhouse
February 2023 | © 2023 Clean Energy Canada | ISBN: 978-1-989692-09-7
All rights reserved. Permission is granted to reproduce all or part of this publication for
non-commercial purposes, as long as the source is cited as “Clean Energy Canada.”
Clean Energy Canada is a program at the Morris J. Wosk Centre for Dialogue at Simon
Fraser University in Vancouver, British Columbia, located on the unceded traditional
territories of the Musqueam, Squamish, and Tsleil-Waututh peoples.
The smart
solution
In 2023, a few things are impossible to ignore.
One is climate change: from floods to heatwaves,
it’s clear the climate clock is ticking. Then there’s
energy: whether it’s $2 gas or higher home heating
bills, powering our lives has gotten pricier.1,2
These two realities—climate change and volatile energy prices—
have a common denominator in fossil fuels. They also share a
common solution. In Alberta and Ontario, wind can now produce
electricity at significantly lower costs than natural-gas-fired power—
with even more reductions on the horizon.
These results are important for a few reasons. For starters, Alberta
and Ontario are both in the midst of transforming their power grids.
Alberta is phasing out polluting coal power, while Ontario has plans
to decommission aging nuclear plants. Currently, both provinces
are planning for natural-gas-fired power to play a leading role in
filling this gap.
1 Investing in wind
and solar along with
2 Providing the policy
certainty needed to
3 Removing barriers to
adoption by supporting
4 Using up-to-date
information and
building a stronger incentivize the necessary the use of evolving energy investing in more
and more flexible grid. investments, including storage solutions and other research on the role
finalizing the promised federal technologies alongside of renewables.
Clean Electricity Regulations. wind and solar power.
$0.15 With
carbon
price
ABOUT THE
$/kWh
GAS GENERATION
$0.10
$0.08
LEVELIZED COST $0.07
OF ENERGY $0.05
Without
carbon
$0.05 price
The main output of this analysis $0.03
was a forecast for the costs $0.00
of constructing and operating 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034
renewable resources, with
Solar Wind CCGT
the calculation of a Levelized
Cost of Energy (LCOE) used to
measure the average cost per Alberta levelized cost of energy
unit of electricity generation $0.20
from a facility over its lifetime.
At a high level, it considers the
$0.15 With
investment required to build the carbon
plant, its projected operational price
$/kWh
Combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT): Gas-fired-power plants that use gas and steam
turbines together. They are often used for baseload power generation.
6
When paired with energy storage, wind and
2 solar can offer dispatchable grid power at
more competitive costs than gas peakers.
With energy storage added, variable renewables have more
flexibility to target output during high-cost periods in the electricity
market, irrespective of whether the sun is shining or the wind is
blowing. By deploying batteries on their own or alongside wind and
solar, surplus power can be stored and redeployed during periods
of higher demand. Including four- or eight-hour storage means wind
and solar power can be used to supply hour-to-hour and day-to-day
energy peaks, making the electricity more valuable to utilities. While
additional storage solutions will be needed to manage seasonal
capacity gaps, four- or eight-hour storage is a very cost-competitive
way to address daily load management needs and contribute to
the reliability of the system overall. Battery technologies stand to
see significant declines in cost, as innovation in battery chemistries
increases their effectiveness and we reach economies of scale.26
$0.14
$0.14
$0.10 $0.10
$0.11 On its own, LCOE does not
$0.08 $0.06 give a full assessment of the
$0.05
$0.04 economic competitiveness of
a technology, as it does not
$0.00
necessarily correspond with the
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034
market price that electricity is
Gas peaker CCGT Solar + storage: Wind + storage: purchased at. This is because
8hr 4hr 8hr 4hr
it does not include other key
elements such as the full
Alberta LCOE of renewables + storage (with carbon price) integration costs of a given
$0.25
project to the broader grid or the
$0.23 fact that dispatchable electricity
$0.23
$0.20
(electricity that is available on
$0.17 demand) will have a higher
$0.15 value than power available more
$/kWh
$0.15
$0.15 variably. On-demand electricity
$0.12 can be delivered in a number of
$0.10 $0.11
$0.11 ways, including from large hydro,
$0.08
$0.08 $0.07 natural-gas-fired plants, stored
$0.05 $0.05 renewable electricity, distributed
energy resources (like smart grid
$0.00
investments, EV batteries, or roof-
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034
top solar), and nuclear power.
Gas peaker CCGT Solar + storage: Wind + storage:
8hr 4hr 8hr 4hr
Gas peaker / Single cycle gas turbine (SCGT): Gas-fired-power plants that generally run
only during periods of peak demand. They are not used for baseload power generation.
7
While trends are broadly aligned across
3 jurisdictions, regional factors impact
deployment costs, both between the U.S.
and Canada as well as between provinces.
Regional variation in costs is predominantly driven by varying
resource potential, physical geography of a project location, differing
installation costs (in particular labour costs and taxes), and other
project-specific factors like interconnection costs. Equipment costs
are relatively unchanged for solar among jurisdictions, with slightly
more notable differences for wind.
The graphs below show how these regional capital costs can
differ when looking at different technologies, technologies.
Different jurisdictions may need to consider unique approaches
to addressing the specific cost drivers that affect the costs of
deploying renewables.
$2,000
CLEAN ELECTRICITY IS
ALBERTA
Capital costs ($/kWh)
ADVANTAGE ONTARIO
$1,000
A clean electricity grid is an
economic advantage for Canada,
$500
as our largest trade partners
increasingly look to forge trade
relationships that favour low- $0
carbon exports and imports. 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034
Europe has plans for carbon
tariffs, for example, while it has
been reported that the U.K. will
propose a carbon border tax Wind capital cost forecasts
on imported steel to level the
playing field against competitors $2,500
with lower environmental
standards.34,35 By powering our
Capital costs ($/kWh)
$2,000
industries with clean power ONTARIO
and putting a price on carbon, $1,500
Canada can deliver the premium ALBERTA
low-carbon goods more and $1,000
more countries and companies
are looking to buy. $500
$0
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034
8
STORAGE SOLUTIONS
Battery storage is projected to be the fastest-growing
source of flexibility for electricity grids around the world,
according to the International Energy Agency.26
But while four- and increasingly eight-hour battery storage is a cost-
effective option for balancing daily variations in power supply, other
technologies will be required to support longer-term storage needs,
further increasing the value of wind and solar. Technologies currently in
use include pumped-storage hydropower and compressed air storage.
Toronto-based Hydrostor is a leader in the latter. Its technology uses
underground caverns to store compressed air that can be released to
turn a turbine. The air is pumped down at a time when wind or solar
generation is high, then released during periods of high demand or
lower generation. The company already has a number of projects in
the works, including two in California and a demonstration project in
Ontario.27–30 There are also other technologies on the horizon that could
provide solutions in the future as well, including green hydrogen.31,32
Additionally, building interties (essentially power lines with large Compressed air storage
transmission capacity) between jurisdictions with different resource Toronto-based Hydrostor is a
profiles is another critical pathway to maximize the role of variable leader in compressed air storage.
renewables in Canada. One example is between B.C. and Alberta. B.C. Its technology uses underground
has plenty of dispatchable hydropower, while Alberta has strong wind caverns to store compressed air that
and solar potential. By creating a better connection between the two can be released to turn a turbine.
grids, these two power resources could be used in conjunction.33
Photo: Hydrostor
For each technology and province, Dunsky evaluated both the capital
and operational costs associated with the technologies and developed
an annual projection of the levelized cost of energy up to 2035. Dunsky
also looked at the costs associated with deploying four- and eight-
Canadian resources Data from local
hour lithium-ion batteries alongside wind and solar, developing cost and engineering Canadian projects
forecasts based on co-deployment. studies
* The full workbook with the forecast model and the detailed methodology are available online.
Levelized cost of natural gas is $3.77 per MMBtu. Fuel cost projections are from the IESO APO 2022.
Carbon price is assumed to increase by $15 annually from $50/t in 2022 to $170/t in 2030
and stay constant thereafter.
FINANCIAL ASSUMPTIONS
TECHNOLOGY ASSUMPTIONS
Capacity factor 22% (AB), 20% (ON) 35% (AB), 40% (ON)
Dunksy collected cost data for recent projects to benchmark against and adjust the forecast. Data was collected
from the Government of Alberta’s database of major energy projects, Ontario’s Independent Electricity System
Operator interconnection data, and individual project research.38 Dunsky also verified costs through interviews
with private sector project developers.
In fact, for the first time ever, the International Energy Renewables are projected to become the largest
Agency forecast a peak or plateau for all fossil fuels source of global electricity generation by early 2025,
under current policies (a scenario that assumes no surpassing coal.41 Wind and solar are expected to
future policies are introduced to accelerate the energy provide 20% of the world’s power by 2027, representing
transition) in the next few years.26 80% of all new renewable electricity generation added
between now and then. 41
But it’s not just energy security issues adding buoyancy
to renewables’ rapid rise. Long before the Ukraine war,
renewables were defying growth expectations for one
simple reason: cost.
CALIFORNIA
SOUTH AUSTRALIA
572
GWh
Northwest Territories
Nunavut
345
GWh
British Columbia 195 Newfoundland and Labrador
GWh
Alberta
24,429
GWh
Manitoba 602
194,779 GWh
55,040 Ontario GWh
GWh
29,009 Prince Edward Island
GWh
140,102
GWh
9,173
GWh
11,760
GWh
Sources: Statistics Canada, Table 25-10-0020-01 - Electric power, annual generation by class of producer
Statistics Canada, Table 25-10-0019-01 - Electricity from fuels, annual generation by electric utility thermal plants
If we continue adding natural gas to the grid, it will be Furthermore, both utilities and academic studies have
very difficult to meet our climate targets. And because called for clear and consistent government policy to
power plants operate for decades, the decision to build attract renewable-related investments.5,22
more natural gas generation is passing significant
risk on to future generations—both in terms of the The federal government has committed to reaching
emissions produced and the costs to retrofit or retire a net-zero electricity grid by 2035, through the Clean
facilities early. Electricity Regulations, which will be key to helping
Canada transition to a more sustainable and affordable
electricity system. A number of major studies suggest
that wind and solar will play an essential role in
meeting this net-zero goal.57,58
ONTARIO
NUCLEAR HYDRO WIND NATURAL GAS SOLAR
59% 25% 8% 6% 1%
82,967 GWh 34,661 GWh 10,887 GWh 9,100 GWh 1,727 GWh
Current state of the grid energy minister has directed the IESO to proceed with
its procurement plan.65,66
Ontario is one of the biggest electricity generating
provinces in Canada, second only to Quebec.55
Ontario’s nuclear plants, which currently supply Potential role of renewables
the biggest share of the province’s power, face Many in Ontario remember high renewable prices.
an uncertain future. Numerous facilities are old Fortunately, this is no longer the case as the market
enough that refurbishment is required, impacting has greatly changed. Only a decade ago, Ontario paid
their electricity output. The Pickering Plant, Ontario’s prices of $135 per megawatt hour for wind and over
largest power plant by generation, was set to be $400 per megawatt hour for solar. Today in Alberta,
decommissioned in 2025, although operators are where most private investment in renewable energy is
exploring options to extend its life.59,60 currently occurring, contracts are being signed in the
low $30s per megawatt hour for wind and below $50
Current status of renewable deployment per megawatt hour for solar.25
Between 2010 and 2017, Ontario added a net 7,152
A recent study by the The Atmospheric Fund looked at
megawatts of renewable capacity, primarily in wind and
three different potential pathways for Ontario to reach
solar. Between 2017 and 2023, however, Ontario is
net zero by 2035 and found that, in each scenario,
projected to add just 466 megawatts of new renewable
wind made up the largest share of new capacity, with
capacity.61 This is a significant slowdown in the pace of
both solar and storage playing important supporting
development for new renewables in the province.
roles in achieving a clean, reliable, affordable grid.14
Ontario’s independent electricity operator, the IESO, has
The IESO also conducted a recent study on pathways
previously forecast that electricity-related emissions will
to decarbonization, finding that achieving net-zero
increase by 375% by 2030 relative to 2017—and 600%
emissions economy-wide in 2050 would require
by 2040—largely due to the ramp-up of natural-gas-fired
Ontario’s grid to double, with major contributions from
generating facilities to replace aging nuclear facilities.62–64
wind and solar.5 While the analysis did not explore what
Currently, the IESO is planning to procure an would be required to meet the federal government’s
additional 4,000 megawatts of electricity capacity 2035 net-zero grid target, it did find that policy
between 2025 and 2027, including 1,500 megawatts certainty is key and that mandatory emissions goals
of new natural gas assets and 2,500 megawatts of were necessary in order to enable investment in clean
energy storage, including a role for batteries. Ontario’s energy infrastructure.
Sources: Statistics Canada, Table 25-10-0020-01 - Electric power, annual generation by class of producer
Statistics Canada, Table 25-10-0019-01 - Electricity from fuels, annual generation by electric utility thermal plants
ALBERTA
NATURAL GAS COAL WIND HYDRO OTHERS
54% 30% 11% 4% 1%
29,915 GWh 16,273 GWh 6,085 GWh 2,160 GWh 488 GWh
Sources: Statistics Canada, Table 25-10-0020-01 - Electric power, annual generation by class of producer
Statistics Canada, Table 25-10-0019-01 - Electricity from fuels, annual generation by electric utility thermal plants
FEDERAL PROVINCIAL
Implement the Clean Electricity Establish climate-aligned energy strategies that integrate
Regulations to help accelerate near-term all forms of energy while setting clear objectives for the
renewable deployment.81 decarbonization of the grid.22,33,58
Reform the treatment of the electricity Put in place short-term targets for wind and solar
sector under Canada’s Output-Based deployment and longer-term clean electricity targets.22
Pricing System so that generators are
Provide clear direction to utilities and regulators to balance
exposed to the full carbon price.3,81
climate objectives with other planning objectives and
prioritize the deployment of variable renewables.22,33,58,82
Prioritize funding for the Address regulatory and legislative Prioritize investments and
innovation and deployment barriers that limit the ability of policies that advance a
of both short- and long-term storage technologies to be properly domestic battery-storage
energy storage resources.25,84,85 evaluated and compensated supply chain.
in procurement and planning
processes.22
Deploy new market instruments
that help provide revenue certainty
for energy storage projects.
Ensure the transparent publication of energy data that is used to inform long-term planning.