Ecological Indicators 154 (2023) 110657

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Ecological Indicators
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolind

Research on the layout of urban disaster-prevention and risk-avoidance

green space under the improvement of supply and demand match: The case
study of the main urban area of Nanjing, China
Wenjun Fei *, Dongxue Lu , Zhongxiao Li
College of Landscape Architecture, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210000, China

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: Accelerated urbanization has made the disaster situation increasingly severe, especially that related to geological
Green space disasters, floods, fires, and other disasters. In response to high-frequency disasters, external disaster prevention
Disaster prevention spaces, mainly urban green spaces, play a key role in sheltering and housing. While many current studies focus on
Layout planning
the balanced layout of green space, which improves their disaster prevention and avoidance capacity to a certain
Supply-demand matching analysis
Densely populated metropolis
extent, there is insufficient consideration of disaster distribution and population demand, leading to conflicts
GIS between green space supply and demand. Therefore, this study further explores the efficiency improvement of
disaster-prevention and risk-avoidance green space (DPRAGS) from the perspective of matching supply and
demand. Taking the main urban area of Nanjing as an example, we rely on ArcGIS, combined with the maximum
capacity limitation coverage model, and conduct green space layout analysis through analysis of urban infra­
structure, disaster risk, and the demand and supply of DPRAGS. The research results show that compared with
previous green space planning methods involving suitability assessment and accessibility analysis, the unitized
planning method, mainly based on supply and demand matching, can better meet the refuge requirements of
demand points and improve the rationality of green space layout. This study enriches the theory of urban green
space planning and guides the planning of DPRAGS in typical densely populated metropolises, such as Nanjing.
Additionally, it can help develop emergency plans and management rules and regulations, ultimately enhancing
evacuation efficiency during disasters and improving overall urban disaster prevention and emergency man­
agement capabilities.

1. Introduction 2014; Villagra-Islas and Alves, 2016).

With the rapid development of cities worldwide and the high con­
centration of people, materials, and facilities, densely populated met­
ropolises exhibit high vulnerability to earthquakes, floods, fires, and
other prone disasters. The cross-impact of disasters is characterized by
randomization, intensification, and interlocking, resulting in heavy
human casualties and economic losses. To mitigate the impact of di­
sasters, cities depend on urban disaster prevention space (DPS),
including urban disaster-prevention and risk-avoidance green space
(DPRAGS), underground space, and road space, which provide relief and
assistance to evacuees. Among these, urban DPRAGSs have become the
main external DPS because of their close connection with residents’
lives, rich types, and capabilities for shelter, fire prevention, evacuation,
and material storage (Jayakody et al., 2016; Mirza, 2015; Villagra et al.,
Nevertheless, there is a general disparity between the supply and
demand for DPRAGS in cities. The situation of urban disasters is com­
plex, with varying regional conditions and demands. Moreover, the
fierce competition for spatial resources and the clustering of population
distribution make it difficult to increase the number of green spaces. As a
result, there are insufficient or redundant spaces for effective refuge and
low accessibility of green spaces (Liu et al., 2022), leading to low effi­
ciency of evacuation and shelter during disasters. Therefore, it is crucial
to efficiently use, plan, and design green spaces for disaster prevention
and avoidance.
Scholars around the world have learned from disaster experiences
the importance of proper planning and design of green spaces to
improve evacuation and sheltering efficiency and reduce the impact of
disasters (Ishikawa, 2002; Winandari, 2018), and classified DPRAGS

* Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: wjfei@njfu.edu.cn (W. Fei), 1356281447@qq.com (D. Lu), 491950023@qq.com (Z. Li).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2023.110657
Received 5 January 2023; Received in revised form 8 May 2023; Accepted 10 July 2023
Available online 17 July 2023
1470-160X/© 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-
nc-nd/4.0/).
W. Fei et al.
into three types: emergency, temporary, and long-term refuge spaces
(Fan, 2012; Kreimer, 1979). They have proposed planning and man­
agement concepts such as “resilient community,” “precaution living
perimeters,” “evacuation zone,” and “disaster prevention subarea,”
(Allan and Bryant, 2012; Hay et al., 2017; Li et al., 2022; Peng and Fan,
2010; Ye et al., 2012; Zhang, 2019) emphasized a “point-line-surface”
network structure (Hong and Guo, 2017; Jeong et al., 2021), and been
committed to building a systematic and unitized spatial structure and
governance system, ultimately forming a collaborative governance
model (Fei and Li, 2022; Xu et al., 2018). The networked and unitized
structure can not only improve the accessibility, connectivity, and sys­
temic nature of DPRAGS but also facilitate the integration of resources
and fine control. Therefore, we follow the unitization concept and
combine the “point-line-surface” structure with DPRAGS layout.
Regarding specific planning methods, studies have mainly carried
out green space and other refuge space analysis and planning through
indicator evaluation, spatial analysis, and model construction. Indicator
evaluation methods are combined with the concepts of resilience and
suitability. Evaluation methods such as Technique for Order Preference
by Similarity to an Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), Analytic Hierarchy Process
(AHP), and Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) are adopted to clarify
current problems and carry out green space planning to improve disaster
prevention capacity (Ang, 2013; Shu, 2018; Zhai et al., 2022). For
example, Anhorn and Khazai constructed evaluation indicators in terms
of implementation, environmental factors, and infrastructure supply to
conduct a suitability analysis and consider the siting of refuge open
spaces (Anhorn and Khazai, 2015). The spatial analysis methods often
employ GIS, along with tools such as network analysis, buffer zone
analysis, and weighted Voronoi diagrams to identify gaps in green space
layout and further plan them (Cao et al., 2017; Şenik and Uzun, 2021;
Zhu et al., 2016). For instance, Xiang used network analysis to analyze
the rationality of the layout of DPRAGS at all levels and proposed
planning suggestions in a zoning and grading manner based on the
administrative district situation (Xiang, 2021). The model construction
methods often rely on classical layout models such as P-center, P-me­
dian, and maximum coverage models, combined with distance con­
straints, capacity constraints, construction costs, and other conditions to
form a variety of multi-objective planning models for refuge site selec­
tion and layout (Shi et al., 2019; Tsai and Yeh, 2016; Wei et al., 2012).
For example, He and Xie constructed a bi-level multi-objective location-
allocation model and an accessibility, economy, and efficiency (AEE)
model from the perspective of decision-makers and evacuees (He and
Xie, 2022). In addition, some scholars have proposed planning strategies
based on the concept of unitary and network planning combined with
qualitative analysis of the basic conditions of the current situation, such
as disasters and green space. In summary, disasters, populations, facil­
ities, and green spaces have been comprehensively considered in these
methods, the rationality of planning has improved to a certain extent.
However, there are few studies on the layout of shelters mainly based on
green space. Most of these studies have focused on a single earthquake
disaster and emphasized the equilibrium of green space distribution
from the supply side. Population demand is analyzed based on the
number of people, population density, or traditional geospatial data
such as land cover data and land use data (Briggs et al., 2007; Chen et al.,
2021; Mao et al., 2012), and the analysis methods still need to be further
enhanced. In addition, the analysis and planning of DPRAGS at each
level are insufficient regarding the temporal and spatial association.
There is also a lack of linkage with other DPS and adequate consider­
ation of supply and demand in green space planning. In summary, the
planning layout of DPRAGS should fully consider the distribution of
various types of disasters and the supply and demand of green space
under each disaster time sequence, combined with other DPS, to realize
the matching of supply and demand in the whole cycle of disasters.
Accordingly, as an example, we consider the main urban area of
Nanjing, a typical densely populated metropolis, and construct green
space layout units based on the multi-hazard risk maps and the matching
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Ecological Indicators 154 (2023) 110657
relationship between the supply and demand of DPRAGS at all levels.
We rely on the units to plan green space layout and form a layout
method. The specific objectives are 1. to develop a disaster scenario
analysis idea with an emphasis on multi-disaster risk and people’s de­
mand during a disaster time sequence; 2. to build a method of urban
DPRAGS layout planning with matching supply and demand and mutual
synergy; 3. to develop a proposal for DPRAGS planning for the main
urban area of Nanjing.
2. Materials and methods
2.1. Study area
Nanjing is one of the central cities in eastern China. Its main urban
area is surrounded by waterways and trunk roads, located between
32◦ 9′41.6″N 118◦ 40′2.070″E and 31◦ 57′11.6″N 118◦ 54′20.217″E,
covering an area of approximately 281 km2, with about 2.86 million
people (Fig. 1). Many command and rescue agencies in the main urban
area of Nanjing are making the area capable of carrying out disaster
prevention and avoidance work more independently and becoming the
core force in disaster prevention, mitigation, and relief in Nanjing.
Similar to many densely populated metropolises around the world,
Nanjing’s main urban area is experiencing rapid economic development,
with a high concentration of people and facility elements, and is
threatened by a variety of disasters such as geological hazards, floods,
and fires, making the disaster situation very serious, highly typical, and
representative. Therefore, we consider the main urban area of Nanjing
as an example to explore the layout of DPRAGS in densely populated
cities.
2.2. Data
The data required for this study mainly included urban environ­
mental, disaster, and population data (Table 1). The raw materials were
collected through relevant planning data statistics, government web­
sites, and geographic data public websites. Further refinement and
enhancement of the data’s accuracy were performed through field
research. Specifically, through the channels of China Resources and
Environment Science and Data Center (https://www.resdc.cn
/DOI/DOI.aspx?DOIid=33), Nanjing Spatial Data Cloud (https
://www.gscloud.cn/), Nanjing Greening and Gardening Bureau
(https://ylj.nanjing.gov.cn/), Nanjing Municipal Planning and Natural
Resources Bureau (https://ghj.nanjing.gov.cn/), Nanjing Seismological
Bureau (https://seism.nanjing.gov.cn), etc., we obtained the master
planning, green space system planning, and other upper-level planning
of Nanjing’s main urban area, as well as vector data such as urban green
space and remote sensing image map. We combined them with the Baidu
map and field research to correct and optimize various vector data. The
remote sensing image was a Landsat8 satellite remote sensing image
from January 3, 2020, and the population data were collected and
analyzed based on the seventh population census.
2.3. Research design
Based on the all-around relationship of “city-disaster-human” and
the refuge function that urban green space can undertake, we aim to
improve green space’s supply and demand adaptability during disasters
through infrastructure analysis, disaster risk map construction, and
supply and demand calculation. The objective is to develop a compre­
hensive layout plan for DPRAGS, which comprises four essential com­
ponents (Fig. 2).
The first part analyzes the emergency response capacity of urban
infrastructure, which combines the service scope of post-disaster rescue
agencies and the distribution of emergency refuge roads based on spatial
analysis technology. The second part involves an urban disaster risk
analysis. First, AHP is used to build the urban disaster risk index system,
W. Fei et al. Ecological Indicators 154 (2023) 110657

Fig. 1. Overview of the current situation of the main urban area of Nanjing.

capacity constraints. The fourth part is the layout planning of DPRAGS,

Table 1 including the division and planning of the layout units. Based on the
Data classification and source table.
above analysis results, the layout units are divided according to the
Data type Specifics Data sources Objectives city’s natural and social environment. Furthermore, the planning sug­
Urban Community, street 1. Field research 1. Calculation of gestions are proposed regarding functional enhancement, spatial syn­
environ- and administrative 2. National and supply during ergy, and new expansions, considering the “point-line-surface.”
mental district maps government disasters
data Land use planning public websites 2. Analysis of
Current status of 3. City Statistical urban 2.4. Analysis of emergency response capacity of urban infrastructure
urban green space Yearbook infrastructure
construction 4. Geospatial 3. Urban DPRAGS The analysis of the emergency response capacity of urban infra­
Status of construction Data Cloud layout
structure mainly focuses on the service scope of rescue agencies and
of other DPSs Platform
(including schools, urban emergency roads. Based on the requirements and experience of
gymnasiums, etc.) domestic and foreign rescue agencies, the service radius of medical
Current status of emergency rescue vehicles, fire engines, and police vehicles is calculated
rescue agency at a speed of approximately 30 km/h in the area that various agencies
construction
(including medical,
can cover in 3.5–5 min. After calculation, the effective service radius
fire, and police was determined as 1750 m–2500 m and then analyzed through the
agencies) multiple-ring buffer (Lin, 2016). In addition, roads were classified ac­
Urban road cording to their grades, functions, and other characteristics.
construction and
planning map
Disaster data Distribution status of Disaster risk 2.5. Analysis of urban disaster risk
urban hazard sources analysis
Historical disaster- Disasters are formed by the interaction between disaster-causing
related information
Population Population Refuge demand
factors, disaster-bearing bodies, and disaster-generating environments,
data distribution analysis and their occurrence and development have certain regularity (Blaikie
et al., 2014; Ian Burton et al., 1993; Shi, 1996). A summary of historical
disasters in cities can effectively explore the occurrence pattern and
and then ArcGIS is used to form the disaster risk map. The third part is future development trends from the whole process of disaster formation
the supply and demand analysis of urban DPRAGS during disasters, (Guo and Kong, 2019; Zhou et al., 2020). This study employed In this
including supply calculation, demand calculation, and matching anal­ study, the data from fire, earthquake, and meteorological departments
ysis of refuge area. We first select green space for disaster prevention and and related literature were used for screening and statistics to obtain
avoidance based on its functional characteristics and the refuge previous disasters situation in four aspects: frequency, impact, duration,
behavior of disaster victims, adopting a “nested” approach to calculate and damage, and to identify the main types of disasters in the main
the effective area supply under each disaster time sequence. Next, the urban area of Nanjing. At the same time, we decided to analyze four
urban community boundaries are used to obtain the demand points. The types of disasters: earthquake, geological disaster, flood, and fire, based
comprehensive disaster coefficients corresponding to different disaster on the functions of prevention, evacuation, and shelter that green space
time sequences of each demand point are calculated with indicators to can play.
obtain the corresponding amount of refuge demand. Finally, the AHP and expert grading methods were used to form an indicator
matching relationship between supply and demand under different system, and ArcGIS was used to process each indicator. Finally, based on
disaster time series is clarified using the maximized coverage model with the weight of each indicator, weighted superposition and weighted sum

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W. Fei et al. Ecological Indicators 154 (2023) 110657

Fig. 2. Research Steps.

were performed to obtain the risk map of each disaster (Chen, 2019;
Table 2
Feng, 2019).
Indicator system and weight table for urban earthquake risk analysis.

2.5.1. Indicator system construction Level I indicator Level II indicator (B) Level III indicator (C) Weight
(A) (W)
Based on the disaster system theory, the disaster risk analysis takes
into account the disaster-causing factors, the disaster-generating envi­ Urban Hazard B1(0.56) Earthquake intensity 0.23
earthquake C1
ronment, and the disaster-bearing body, and combines the mainstream
risk A1 Seismic depth C2 0.21
international “Hazard-Exposure-Vulnerability” risk assessment frame­ Secondary geological 0.12
work, and further considers the construction of the index system from hazard sensitivity C3
three aspects: hazard, urban environment, and disaster prevention ca­ Exposure B2(0.18) Urban population 0.04
pacity. The hazard indexes highlight the role of disaster-causing factors density C4
Urban building 0.06
and disaster-generating environment on urban disaster, and analyze the density C5
factors that cause disasters in natural and human conditions such as Proportion of old 0.08
topography, rainfall, and major hazard sources, and select the buildings C6
commonly used geological-related indexes, river-related indexes, Anti-earthquake and Rescue agency service 0.11
disaster relief capability scope C7
rainfall-related indexes, and major hazard sources. The urban environ­
B3(0.26) Road density C8 0.02
mental indicators explore the vulnerability and exposure of the main Urban green space 0.08
disaster-bearing bodies, such as cities and people, to different hazards. distribution C9
Therefore, we selected indicators such as population density, building GDP per capita C10 0.05
distribution, and vegetation coverage that apply to cities. The indicators
of disaster prevention capability mainly assess whether cities can effi­
2.5.2. Urban disaster risk map
ciently prevent, mitigate, and respond to disasters, including whether
In terms of earthquake risk maps, we obtained the analysis results of
the emergency road system is comprehensive, and the ability of cities to
earthquake intensity and depth based on historical earthquake disasters
dispatch and use disaster prevention space, relief materials, and rescue
and earthquake fault zone distribution. The natural breakpoint method
agencies.
in conjunction with urban infrastructure, spatial structure, and other
Based on the selection of indicators, we invited experts to score the
similar data was used to reclassify the earthquake risk values into a
importance of indicators, used SPSS19.0 to obtain weights, and obtained
range of one to five, and weighted summation tools were then used to
a risk indicator system for earthquakes, geological disasters, floods, and
obtain the earthquake disaster risk map of Nanjing’s main urban area.
fires (Tables 2–5).
Visualization was achieved using the stretching tool for the attributes.

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W. Fei et al. Ecological Indicators 154 (2023) 110657

Table 3 In terms of the flood disaster risk map, the three-level index analysis
Indicator system and weight table for urban geological disaster risk analysis. results were obtained through interpolation, density, fishnet, focal
Level I indicator Level II indicator (B) Level III indicator Weight analysis, raster math, and other technologies in spatial analysis tools and
(A) (C) (W) data management tools. Based on standardized processing, the calcu­
Urban geological Hazard B1(0.46) Annual rainfall C1 0.16 lation results were divided into five levels according to the natural
hazard risk A1 Terrain C2 0.15 breakpoint method, where 5 represented a high risk, and 1 represented a
Geological 0.15 low risk. The spatial distribution of flood disaster risk vulnerability in
environment C3 the study area was obtained through weighted superposition and
Exposure B2(0.36) Urban arable land 0.08
area C4
weighted sum analyses.
Urban population 0.16 In terms of the fire risk map, we used fishing net analysis to obtain
density C5 the distribution characteristics of elements for population density,
Road buffer zone 0.04 building density, building height, road traffic capacity, green space
C6
coverage, and other indicators and used nuclear density analysis, linear
Vegetation cover 0.08
C7 density analysis, and multi-ring buffer zone analysis for the distribution
Anti-earthquake and Rescue agency 0.09 of hazard sources, river network distribution, and fire station coverage.
disaster relief capability service scope C8 In addition, the coverage of fire agencies was divided into five levels
B3(0.18) GDP per capita C9 0.09 according to the alarm time and speed, namely 625 m, 1250 m, 1875 m,
2500 m, and >2500 m. Three other level indicators were reclassified
using the natural breakpoint method, and the assigned value indicated
Table 4 low and high disaster risk from 1 to 5. Finally, through the spatial
Indicator system and weight table for urban flood risk analysis. analysis technology, the hazard factor risk, disaster elimination factor
Level I Level II indicator (B) Level III indicator (C) Weight capacity-index analysis diagram, and fire risk analysis diagram were
indicator (A) (W) obtained through weighted superposition and weighted sum analysis in
Urban flood Disaster-causing factors Annual rainfall C1 0.16 the spatial analysis technology.
risk A1 B1(0.46) Terrain undulation C2 0.11
Elevation C3 0.09 2.6. Supply and demand analysis of urban DPRAGS
River network density 0.06
C4
Distance from the 0.04
2.6.1. Analysis of the supply
river C5
Sensitivity B2(0.31) Urban population 0.09 (1) Selection
density C6
Urban building 0.09
According to the Code for Design of Disasters Mitigation Emergency
density C7
Urban land use C8 0.13 Congregate Shelter and the Technical Standard of Construction of Urban
Disaster prevention Vegetation cover C9 0.06 Emergency Shelter, and taking into account the limited space in the old
capability B3(0.23) Rescue agency service 0.06 urban areas of the city, the requirements for the configuration of long-
scope C10 term refuge green space (LTRGS), short- and medium-term refuge
Urban road density 0.03
C11
green space (SMTRGS), and emergency refuge green space (ERGS) are
GDP per capita C12 0.08 summarized in terms of safety, effectiveness, accessibility, and func­
tionality (Table 6). Safety requires that the green space should be high,
flat, open, and far away from the area where explosions and fires are
Table 5 likely to occur. Effectiveness requires a certain scale of DPRAGS, which
Indicator system and weight table for urban fire risk analysis. can ensure the efficient performance of the sheltering function. Acces­
sibility requires that it can be connected to certain urban roads to
Level I Level II indicator (B) Level III indicator (C) Weight
indicator (A) (W)
facilitate the access of the surrounding people.

Urban fire risk Catastrophic factor risk Urban population 0.20

(2) Calculation of the effective supply
A1 B1(0.61) density C1
Urban building density 0.16
C2 The effective refuge area determines the supply during disasters, and
Major disaster sources 0.25 most refugees choose flat and open lawns, squares, and other spaces in
C3
the urban green space to carry out refuge and rescue work. The effective
Abatement factor Distance from the river 0.05
capacity B2(0.39) C4 refuge area mainly refers to the sum of open spaces, excluding water
Urban green space 0.07 bodies, mountains, buildings, structures, and forested areas. For some
distribution C5 green spaces that are difficult to calculate, the current popular algorithm
Urban road density C6 0.06 was adopted in this study; that is, effective refuge accounts for 60 % of
Fire agency rescue scope 0.09
the total green space area (Planning Outline of Earthquake and Emer­
C7
Fire and disaster relief 0.12 gency Shelter (Outdoor) in Beijing Central City, 2006). Due to the in­
capabilities C8 clusive nature of the functions of green space, the effective supply of
green space under different disaster sequences is determined in a “nes­
ted” manner. It means, at the time of calculating the effective supply of
In terms of the geological hazard risk map, by collecting relevant
emergency refuge, ERGS, SMTRGS, and LTRGS are included in the
data, such as the distribution of urban geological hazard-prone areas
calculation system; when calculating the effective supply of short- and
issued by the Urban Land and Resources Bureau, a spatial analysis tool
medium-term refuge, the effective sheltered area of LTRGS can be
was used to obtain the geological hazard risk analysis map of the study
superimposed.
area. The reclassification tool was used to roughly divide the risk values
into five categories: high risk, medium–high risk, medium risk, medi­
um–low risk, and low risk, taking values of 5, 4, 3, 2, and 1, respectively.

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W. Fei et al. Ecological Indicators 154 (2023) 110657

Table 6
Selection standard for DPRAGS in cities at all levels.
Grade Site selection conditions Effective shelter area per Area recommen- Effective refuge Service Export Number of road
capita (/people) dation (hm2) area ratio radius (m) quantity connections

LTRGS Natural environment safety, 5.0 Old ≥20 ≥60 % 300–500 ≥1 ≥1

artificial environment safety Town
New ≥50
Town
SMTRGS 2.0 ≥10 ≥40 % 2000 ≥2 ≥2
ERGS 1.0 ≥1 ≥30 % 5000 ≥2 ≥2

2.6.2. Analysis of the demand
(1) Point-of-demand identification and demographics
In times of disaster, there is often a demand for evacuation and
refuge. Therefore, we define the permanent population of each demand
point as the potential number of people requiring assistance. As the “first
gate” of urban disaster prevention and mitigation, the determination of
demand points can be carried out according to the scope of the com­
munity, and the population of demand points can be controlled to about
10,000 people as far as possible according to the size of urban com­
munities in China. Therefore, when dividing demand units, two situa­
tions often occur as mentioned here 1. When demand units and
community control units coincide, the number of permanent residents in
the unit is obtained through statistical yearbooks, government websites,
etc.; 2. in case of too large or too small scale, the demand unit can be
divided by urban branch roads, and the second division forms a refuge
demand unit. In this case, the population was calculated as the number
of households per building × average population per family × number of
buildings”.
(2) Calculation of the refuge area requirements
According to the demand calculation idea proposed by Cai (Cai and
He, 2011), we consider the demand unit as the basic unit, construct a
system of refuge demand impact indicators, calculate disaster co­
efficients, and then calculate the spatial demand for urban DPRAGS
under the three refuge stages.
The following indicators were selected considering the factors
influencing the prediction of urban DPRAGS demand, and their weights
were determined by referring to relevant research (Table 7). In index
processing, the population density was calculated using ArcGIS on the
area of each demand unit under the projection coordinate, and the
relevant population density data were obtained by combining the
number of permanent residents. The treatment of the building density
index was similar to that of population density. The intersection tool in
ArcGIS allocated urban buildings to each demand unit. The total
building area in the demand unit was calculated using summary and
statistical tools, and the building density in the unit was obtained by
combining the size of the demand unit with the building area. The
calculation of disaster risk indicators is a key indicator for determining
the demand for SMTRGS and LTRGS. When calculating the disaster
coefficient corresponding to medium- and short-term refuge, based on
Table 7
Index table of factors influencing urban DPRAGS demand.
Index Code Index meaning
Population I1 Reflect the population distribution
density
Building I2 Reflect the distribution of buildings
density
Disaster risk I3 Divided into disaster risks corresponding to
the medium-term and long-term refuge
Land use I4-1 Land area for industrial storage
property I4-2 Area of residential and public buildings
the analysis of earthquake disasters, geological disasters, flood disasters,
and fires in the main urban area of Nanjing, the Extract tool in ArcGIS
was used to extract the disaster analysis raster data obtained from the
weighted sum, and the disaster risk value of the demand point was
given. The disaster risk index affected the coefficient corresponding to
the long-term refuge, combined with data management tools, earth­
quake disasters, geological disasters, and fires. According to the land use
property index, the area of industrial storage land and residential and
public construction land was calculated using geometric tools.
The demand for DPRAGS at each demand point was obtained by
combining Equations (1), (2), and (3). The number of emergency refuge
populations can be calculated using the permanent urban population.
The number of short- and medium-term refuge populations shall be
multiplied by the corresponding disaster-affected coefficient by the
permanent population. The number of long-term refuge populations
shall be multiplied by the number of short- and medium-term needs by
the corresponding disaster-affected coefficient. In addition, according to
the relevant provisions of the Guidelines for Disaster Prevention and
Risk Avoidance Design of Urban Green Space (JBC [2018] No. 1), the per
capita refuge area of ERGS, SMTRGS, and LTRGS is 1 m2/people, 2 m2/
people, and 5 m2/people, respectively.
xij − min xij
(1)
1≤i≤n
rij =
max xij − min xij
1≤i≤n 1≤i≤n
(i is the demand impact indicator serial number; j is the serial
number of each demand unit in the city; rij is the single indicator impact
factor of each demand unit; xij is the evaluation value of i indicator of the
jth demand unit; min1 ≤ i ≤ nxij is the minimum value of i indicator of
each demand unit within the study object; max 1 ≤ i ≤ nxij is the
maximum value of i indicator of each demand unit within the study
object.)
∑
ri = rij • λi (2)
(ri is the combined disaster coefficient of each demand unit for
different disaster periods; rij is the single indicator disaster coefficient of
each demand unit for different disaster periods; λi is the weight of
shelter demand impact indicator.)
Demand for urban DPRAGS = disaster coefficient × population
× refugee area per capita (3)
2.6.3. Analysis of the matching relationship between supply and demand
during disasters
Urban DPRAGS should not only meet the needs of people in terms of
the total area but also match the needs of people in terms of the layout,
meet the refuge area required by the population within the service area,
Weight
and facilitate the nearest access of the population. Under the guidance of
0.35 the double objectives, from the government’s perspective, to meet the
residents’ needs for refuge as the primary purpose and reduce the cost of
0.25
green space planning and construction as much as possible. From the
0.2 perspective of refugees, the city has sufficient green space for the
evacuation and resettlement of disaster victims and can reach the site
0.05
quickly and conveniently. We selected the maximized coverage model
0.15

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W. Fei et al.
with capacity constraints and covered as many demand points as
possible within the maximum service area based on the actual distance
on the premise that the demand capacity is not greater than the capacity
provided by the facility points (Lv et al., 2022). In addition, the affected
people usually choose the greenbelt with the fasted arrival time, the
largest scale, and the richest functions within their cognitive scope as the
refuge space during the disaster; to some extent, the hierarchy of urban
DPRAGS is ignored. Therefore, we consider the matching relationship
between supply and demand under various disaster time series based on
the analysis shown in Fig. 3. We incorporated urban DPRAGS supply
points, demand points, urban road information, and obstructive infor­
mation, such as mountains, into the ArcGIS database. Based on the
location-allocation tool in the network analysis, under the guidance of a
maximized coverage model with capacity constraints, the relationship
between supply and demand during disasters in Nanjing’s main urban
area was analyzed from three aspects: LTRGS, SMTRGS, and ERGS.
2.7. Urban DPRAGS layout planning
The layout of the green space is based on the layout unit of the
effective service area of the urban DPRAGS as the basic unit, which can
more effectively ensure the full coverage of the demand point and full
utilization of the urban DPRAGS. Therefore, the layout unit is divided
first, then the green space is planned, and finally, the structure of urban
DPRAGS is formed.
2.7.1. Layout unit division
The “three-step” strategy is mainly adopted when determining the
cell boundary. First, the range of units is obtained based on the matching
relationship between LTRGS and demand points. Second, the matching
relationship of SMTRGS and ERGS is used to achieve the initial refine­
ment of unit boundaries, and finally, secondary refinement is carried out
in combination with the mountain and river facilities, roads, and other
conditions of Nanjing.
Fig. 3. Analysis diagram of the supply–demand matching relationship.
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Ecological Indicators 154 (2023) 110657
2.7.2. Unit planning
The construction of densely populated cities tends to become satu­
rated, and it is difficult and costly to build new green spaces for disaster
prevention and risk avoidance. Therefore, function improvement and
spatial coordination are taken as the primary means. To address large
gaps between supply and demand, small areas of green space will be
added or extended. After grading the original point, line, and area green
space of the city, fully excavate and cultivate the disaster prevention,
mitigation, and relief functions of green space from the aspects of in­
ternal space structure, facility construction, management, and control,
and further realize the maximum utilization of green space resources.
Based on controlling the government’s construction cost, make full use
of other DPS to assist the construction of urban DPRAGS network sys­
tems, and add several urban DPRAGS to fill the gap in the existing
structure and improve redundancy. In addition, we strengthen the
connectivity between units and green space to guarantee the supply and
risk-hedging of refuge space.
3. Results
3.1. Analysis of urban infrastructure emergency response capacity
Based on the distribution of various rescue institutions in the main
urban area of Nanjing, the following phenomena are mainly observed: 1.
The high-grade medical institutions in the main urban area are now
providing full coverage of the region, and can reach the existing
DPRAGSs within 5 min. However, the increasing population and limited
medical facilities and personnel can easily form an overload situation. 2.
The main city is fully equipped with various levels of firefighting
agencies, and the currently built DPRAGSs are within the 5 min service
area of firefighting agencies. 3. Larger-scale public security facilities are
mainly concentrated in the central part of the main urban area and
roughly distributed in a belt pattern. Public security bureaus and police
stations are laid out homogeneously in each administrative district.
W. Fei et al.
Overall, the medical, fire, and rescue institutions in the main urban area
of Nanjing can meet the region’s emergency shelter needs with fewer
blind spots or gaps and provide timely rescue and relief services for all
kinds of DPRAGS in the city. In terms of the link between the completed
DPRAGSs and roads, the large-scale LTRGSs have connections to many
primary and secondary urban roads, and each ERGS is also closely
connected to evacuation and rescue channels with high road accessi­
bility and appropriate density (Fig. 4).
3.2. Analysis of the disaster risk of Nanjing’s main urban area
Through ArcGIS, the main disaster risk maps of the main urban area
of Nanjing were obtained (Fig. 5). The highest urban seismic risk value is
4.3, and the lowest is 1.93. Urban seismic high-risk areas have more
frequent underground rock activities, more geological hazard points,
and are prone to secondary disasters such as landslides and collapses
triggered by earthquakes. They are concentrated in the core area of the
main urban area for commercial and living functions, where the popu­
lation and buildings are more gathered. In terms of geological disasters,
the size of the high-risk and medium–high-risk areas is 42.13 km2, which
is concentrated along the mountains and in areas with a high density of
residential households; the medium-risk areas are 79.28 km2, and the
area of the medium–low risk and low-risk areas is the largest, 159.59
km2. Flood risk values range from a high of 3.71 to a low of 1.67. The
areas with high risk are mainly distributed in the central part of the main
urban area with a high urbanization degree, dense population, and low
vegetation coverage. The southern and eastern areas have high rainfall,
concentrated tributaries, and facilities to be upgraded. The highest fire
risk is 4.12, and the lowest is 1.36. High-risk areas are mainly distributed
in areas with a large population base, old and dense buildings, and many
Fig. 4. Analysis of service scope of rescue organization and types of emergency evacuation roads.
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Ecological Indicators 154 (2023) 110657
hazard sources, mostly in a point distribution.
3.3. Analysis of the supply and demand of DPRAGS in Nanjing’s main
urban area during disasters
3.3.1. Analysis of the supply
Five hundred ninety-one urban green spaces have been built or
planned for construction, with a total area of 57.30 km2. Among them
are four LTRGSs, two SMTRGSs, and 40 ERGSs. Under the guidance of
the principles of safety, effectiveness, and accessibility, 551 sites that
can be used for urban DPRAGS are selected, including parks and squares,
excluding some unique parks with special functions.
In addition to the four completed LTRGSs, another three green spaces
are selected as alternatives according to the evacuation demand distri­
bution and the radius of the service area, excluding the green spaces
with high overlap in the service area. The seven LTRGSs provide 255.36
hm2 of effective refuge areas and long-term shelter services for 538,200
people. Most are evenly distributed in the main urban area of Nanjing. A
total of 47 options for SMTRGS are selected, providing an effective area
of 786.99 hm2 for temporary resettlement and rescue activities and for
3,934,900 people to take refuge. These options present the character­
istics of central concentration and external scarcity. For ERGS, 497
alternative options are selected, with a total effective area of 321.32
hm2, showing a trend of the central part as the core and a gradual
decrease in the surrounding areas, with a shortage in the north and south
of the main city.
3.3.2. Analysis of the demand
In this study, 311 demand points were obtained, with approximately
2,857,100 permanent residents. Based on the distribution of
W. Fei et al.
Fig. 5. Urban disaster risk map.
communities and population scale within the main urban area of
Nanjing, the population of demand points was controlled between 6,000
and 13,000 people, as far as possible. The scale of the demand units is
based on the distribution of the permanent urban population. For some
surrounding areas with sparse populations and scattered building fa­
cilities, the demand units reach 6 km2. However, for old or central urban
areas with dense old buildings and complex spatial functions, the min­
imum size of demand units is 0.6 km2.
In calculating the disaster coefficient, the results of the population
density index are mainly concentrated in the range of 0.0000–0.3000.
The building density index results show an inverted U-shaped curve
distribution. Compared with other numerical ranges, the
number–0.2000–0.3000 has the highest frequency. In the short and
medium term, the average index coefficient of disaster risk is 0.5887,
with an extensive distribution between 0.4 and 0.9, while in the long
term, the index coefficient of disaster risk is between 0.3 and 0.7. The
average value of the land use property index is approximately 0.1599,
and the coefficient is mainly between 0.0000 and 0.1000. For the
disaster coefficient of the short- and medium-term refuge behavior, the
minimum value of each demand point is 0.0499, and the maximum is
0.7441. For the disaster coefficient of long-term refuge behavior, the
values of each demand point were concentrated between 0.0212 and
0.6831.
According to the formula, the emergency refuge demand takes the
resident population of each demand point as the number of refuge
populations, and a total of 2,857,100 people need 285.71 hm2 of
effective refugee area. The short- and medium-term refuge demand re­
sults from the product of the resident population of the demand point
and the comprehensive disaster coefficient corresponding to the short-
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Ecological Indicators 154 (2023) 110657
and medium-term refuge, and a total of 864,500 people need 172.90
hm2 of effective refugee area. The calculation of long-term refuge de­
mand is a further refinement of the short- and medium-term refuge
demand, and a total of 273,000 people need 136.50 hm2 of effective
refuge area. In total, the demand is much smaller than the supply
(Table 8).
3.3.3. Analysis of the match relationship between supply and demand
Analyzing the supply and demand for long-term refuge, we deter­
mined that the optimal configuration consists of seven facility points
that can cater to the needs of 234 facilities, which corresponds to 75.24
% of demand. But many demand points in the central area of the main
urban area were not included in the long-term refuge service scope of
urban DPRAGS.
For the medium- and short-term refuge supply and demand analysis,
the LTRGSs and the completed SMTRGSs are mandatory options to
obtain the service situation. The results show that the degree of coverage
of the demand points increases with the number of facility points. When
the number of facility points is 40, the coverage rate of the demand
points is 70.73 %, which maximizes the benefit. A subsequent increase in
facility points did not improve the coverage rate.
Table 8
Compare between the supply of DPRAGS options with the demand.
Total supply (hm2) Total demand (hm2)
Long term refuge 255.36 136.50
Short- and medium-term refuge 1042.35 172.90
Emergency refuge 1363.67 285.71
W. Fei et al.
In the analysis of emergency refuge supply and demand, 551 LTRGS,
SMTRGS, and ERGS options are jointly used as the facility points for
matching the supply and demand of emergency refuge. Forty completed
ERGSs are set as mandatory options, and the weights of the LTRGSs and
SMTRGSs alternatives are increased. When the total number of facilities
is 230, 240, and 250, the coverage rate of the demand points can reach
70.73 %, 71.38 %, and 70.73 %, meeting the emergency needs of 2, 009,
500, 2, 021, 900, and 2, 007, 300, respectively. It is found that when the
number of options reaches 240, the refugee population coverage reaches
its peak (Fig. 6).
3.4. Layout planning of DPRAGS in Nanjing’s main urban area
3.4.1. Layout unit division
In the case of ensuring the evacuation of people to reach nearby,
based on the analysis results of Section 3.3.3, combined with natural
conditions, facilities, and other multiple factors, the boundaries of the
eight layout units are defined. Among them, because of the absence of
LTRGS in the central part of the main city and the fact that the sur­
rounding green spaces are not accessible due to the limitation of service
scope, this part is separately divided into layout unit 8. Each of the
remaining layout units contains a long-term refuge green space (Fig. 7).
3.4.2. Unit planning
Under the guidance of the superior planning of Nanjing emergency
shelters and Nanjing green space system planning, unit planning is
carried out based on the results of supply and demand matching analysis
and the current construction situation. By comparing the effective sup­
ply of various types of urban DPRAGS with the actual demand for the
refuge of the affected people, it is known that the existing supply and
Fig. 6. Matching relationship between supply and demand.
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Ecological Indicators 154 (2023) 110657
demand contradictions are more prominent in layout units 1, 4, 5, 7, and
8, whereas the matching gaps in layout units 2, 3, and 6 are smaller.
Layout units 1, 4, 5, and 7 all have green areas suitable for long-term
refuge, providing effective refuge areas of approximately 81.84 hm2,
4.89 hm2, 93.34 hm2, and 9 hm2, respectively, which can safely
accommodate over 300,000 people for long-term living and resettle­
ment and can achieve full coverage of the long-term refugee needs of the
affected population within the units. In terms of short- and medium-term
emergency refuge, there is a significant conflict between supply and
demand in the layout unit. Specifically: 1. There are no sites within
Layout Unit 1 that can be used as SMTRGS, and only six existing ERGS
options meet the emergency shelter needs of only seven demand points.
2. There is a good match between supply and demand for emergency
refuge within Layout Unit 4, but only 40.27 % of short- and medium-
term refugee needs are met, with the shortfall located mainly in the
eastern sector. 3. The analysis of the supply and demand match for
emergency refuge in Layout Unit 5 shows that 16 demand points are not
allocated to green space, achieving only 54.28 % coverage of demand
points. 4. In Layout Unit 7, the demand points to the east and south
within the unit are difficult to cover by the SMTRGS and the ERGS
service areas. In addition, Layout Unit 8 is different in that it lacks the
arrangement of LTRGS, and it is difficult for the surrounding green space
to provide long-term refuge services for the affected people in this area.
However, there is a certain area of SMTRGS and ERGS inside, which can
meet 86 % and 90 % of the refuge needs, respectively. For these units, we
plan the layout of urban DPRAGS through functional improvement,
combined with upgrading and collaboration with other DPS.
Layout Units 2 and 3 are more densely populated than the above five
units, but as the core area of economic and social development, the
planning and construction of urban green space are relatively more
W. Fei et al.
Fig. 7. The result of the layout unit division.
adequate. Unit 6, on the other hand, is less densely populated, and the
existing urban DPRAGS that can be planned and constructed can meet
the 100 % refuge needs of the unit. Therefore, to meet the demand for
refuge, we aim to lay out a more balanced urban DPRAGS, reduce the
overlap rate of service scope as much as possible, and reduce the con­
struction cost. Simultaneously, functional improvement and spatial co­
ordination are used to fill some gaps.
We take Layout Unit 7 as an example to explore the specific planning
method. We know that the completed long-term refuge green space C
can meet all the refuge needs of the unit according to the matching
relationship between supply and demand. However, because of the
obstruction of the mountain, some of the demand points are far away, it
is necessary to focus on improving the construction of the strip green
space along the way to form a “green ring” to ensure the efficiency and
damage resistance of emergency road transportation and strengthen
external evacuation roads of the unit. In addition, the risk value of flood
disasters in the eastern part of the unit is as high as 3.6. Gymnasiums and
university exhibition halls should be fully linked to provide an indoor
refuge space. In terms of short- and medium-term refuge, only approx­
imately 29.27 % of demand points can be met, and they are concentrated
in the central and northern areas. In these two areas, SMTRGS such as 7-
a and combining with schools such as 7-b, 7-c, and 7-d, medium- and
short-term refuge needs of approximately 75,000 people will be real­
ized. At the same time, 7–2, 7–3, 7–4, and other spaces should be
transformed and upgraded, emphasizing the emergency hedging role of
other DPS such as 7–11 and filling the emergency refuge gap of about
30,000 people through cooperation with SMTRGS and LTRGS. Some of
the green spaces do not adequately serve the southern part of the area
due to their compound function not being fully utilized and the degree of
land development not being high. Therefore, it is proposed to focus on
upgrading the 7-f Park, relying on its conditions to provide the function
of medium-term refuge and become the main place to meet the short-
and medium-term shelter needs of 20,000 people in the southern area.
At the same time, based on the completed 7–19 and 7–20 ERGS, 7–16,
7–17, and 7–18 will be spatially optimized and their effectiveness
enhanced to achieve full coverage of the emergency refugee needs in the
southern area.
In summary, based on the relationship base map provided by the
supply and demand matching analysis, considering the current situation
of urban green spaces, the internal structure of each layout unit is
improved by improving the functions of existing urban green spaces,
fully exploiting the emergency shelter potential of green spaces, and
linking with other DPS to form a network structure integrated into the
urban disaster prevention space system. Full satisfaction of refuge needs
is basically achieved (Fig. 8) (Table 9). Finally, combined with the idea
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Ecological Indicators 154 (2023) 110657
of “point-line-surface”, the DPRAGS system network with units linkage
of “eight cores, eight pieces, two rings, and multiple points” is con­
structed (Fig. 9).
4. Discussion
By matching the supply and demand of urban DPRAGS, we select
seven LTRGSs, 40 SMTRGSs, and 240 ERGSs, divided into eight layout
units and further planned the layout of DPRAGS with strategies such as
functional enhancement, spatial synergy, and additional green spaces.
The layout planning method proposed in this study fills approximately
56 %, 87 %, and 83 % of the blind spots in the layout of LTRGS,
SMTRGS, and ERGS, respectively, based on the built-up DPRAGS, and
achieves full coverage of the demand points under each disaster time
sequence.
4.1. Study designs
Compared to previous studies, we still considered the four aspects of
hazard, population, facilities, and green space but differed in terms of
hazard analysis, supply and demand analysis, and planning methods.
Disaster analysis is the basis for planning green spaces for disaster
prevention and risk avoidance. Risk assessment is a core component in
disaster risk management research, and considerable progress has been
made in developing single-hazard and comprehensive multi-hazard risk
assessment methods (Shi et al., 2018; Wang, 2011). However, most
studies on green space planning for disaster prevention and avoidance
focus only on a single earthquake hazard and consider only historical
hazard scenarios for disaster analysis (Villagra-Islas and Alves, 2016).
Therefore, we incorporate the disaster risk theory, which emphasizes
exposure and preparedness in addition to hazards. From the perspective
of comprehensive disaster prevention, relying on the function of green
space and the situation of the study area, we increase our understanding
of geological disasters, fire disasters, and flood disasters. Multi-hazard
risk analysis considers the impact of hazards more comprehensively
and identifies high-risk areas for each hazard, allowing for more accu­
rate forecasting of refuge needs and rational planning of green spaces.
The results of the disaster analysis show that high-hazard risk areas are
concentrated in densely populated areas, but each area has different
hazard risks and should be planned according to their different needs.
We also optimized the supply-and-demand analysis method. We
recognize the inclusion of the functions of urban DPRAGS. Combined
with the characteristics of evacuees choosing the nearest refuge, we find
that the effective supply of green space under different disaster se­
quences also features downward nesting. In contrast to previous studies,
W. Fei et al. Ecological Indicators 154 (2023) 110657

Fig. 8. Layout and supply–demand matching of units.

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W. Fei et al. Ecological Indicators 154 (2023) 110657

Table 9 medium-term and long-term refuge periods when they are homeless due
Compare between the supply after planning with the demand. to the collapse or damage of residential buildings after a disaster and
Unit Refuge stage Total supply Total demand need to use urban green spaces for rehousing (French et al., 2019). The
(person) (person) actual demand for refuge at each stage is generally smaller than the total
1 Long term refuge 162,960 9266 urban population. Therefore, the layout of DPRAGS, based on the dis­
Short- and medium-term 547,400 46,550 tribution of the total population, may result in vacant and wasted re­
refuge sources such as sites and facilities. With the deepening of research, the
Emergency refuge 1,481,172 250,576 concept of the disaster coefficient came into being. Cai proposed that the
2 Long term refuge 106,944 42,749
Short- and medium-term 556,830 119,281
main idea of the demand calculation is to integrate the product of three
refuge factors: disaster coefficient, number of residents, and per capita shelter
Emergency refuge 1,945,631 379,493 area, and to combine the four demand influencing factors of geological
3 Long term refuge 53,700 52,837 conditions, population density, land use function, and building quality
Short- and medium-term 156,858 156,858
to clarify the logic of calculating the demand for emergency and fixed
refuge
Emergency refuge 479,125 479,125 refuge sites in cities (Cai and He, 2011), but does not discuss it for multi-
4 Long term refuge 186,696 30,290 hazard and long-term refuge. Therefore, we combine the complete three
Short- and medium-term 499,260 88,173 refuge phases, add indicators of disaster risk, and consider the different
refuge needs of the population in different refuge phases when they encounter
Emergency refuge 1,775,857 267,425
5 Long term refuge 17,700 17,646
disasters such as floods and fires. We further develop a comprehensive
Short- and medium-term 990,600 87,374 multi-hazard long-term, short- and medium-term, and emergency
refuge refuge-demand calculation method, which can improve the accuracy of
Emergency refuge 2,849,267 343,614 demand prediction to a certain extent and help subsequent green space
6 Long term refuge 22,000 19,764
planning to meet demand and reduce construction costs. The results of
Short- and medium-term 472,290 74,753
refuge the supply and demand analysis show that, in terms of the total area, the
Emergency refuge 2,562,925 286,957 urban DPRAGS that can be planned and built in the main urban area of
7 Long term refuge 113,736 24,189 Nanjing can meet the demand, but there is still room for improvement in
Short- and medium-term 396,690 95,910 the planning. The analysis of the relationship between supply and de­
refuge
mand ensures that the scope of green space services is maximized and
Emergency refuge 1,213,978 354,399
8 Long term refuge 81,250 76,279 construction costs are minimized and provide a visual representation of
Short- and medium-term 353,635 195,592 the availability of matching green space at each demand point,
refuge providing a basis for the subsequent division of units and green space
Emergency refuge 1,381,088 475,800
planning.
In addition, compared with the previous planning of DPRAGS
which analyze each level of green space separately (Xiang, 2021), we focusing on site suitability and accessibility (Hao and Zhang, 2022; Wu
adopt a superimposed and nested approach to calculate the effective et al., 2015; Xu and Fei, 2020), we emphasize the matching relationship
supply of green space in times of disaster, breaking away from previous between the supply and demand of green space under various disaster
thinking of “hierarchy” and facilitating the full use of urban green space. sequences; furthermore, we consider the entire disaster prevention and
In previous studies, the total population of each area has often been used mitigation system, breaking through the limitations of previous plan­
to calculate the potential refugee population. However, the demand for ning that only focused on green space itself. Our approach resolves the
refuge space is mainly during the emergency evacuation period when low utilization efficiency of and difficulties in integrating various
they move from indoor to outdoor spaces, as well as during the short- to disaster prevention spaces and facilities in the past. Through other DPS,

Fig. 9. Layout structure of urban DPRAGS.

13
W. Fei et al.
the blind area of green space layout at all levels of approximately 1.2 %,
13.5 %, and 18.3 %, respectively, has been filled, reducing the con­
struction of green space and improving the efficiency of urban disaster
prevention and avoidance.
4.2. Management recommendations
Based on unitized planning, the control of green spaces should be
discussed to ensure their effectiveness in times of disaster. We believe
that the Ministry of Emergency Management and the Department of
Emergency Management of Jiangsu Province should take the lead, and
the Nanjing Municipal Government and the Emergency Management
Bureau should become the command center for disaster relief in the
main urban area, with the layout unit as the basic unit, and adopt the
control mode of “top-down + combination of normal and disaster times”
to build a grid-based urban DPRAGS governance system.
4.2.1. Build layout unit collaboration plan
Due to the complexity of disasters, as well as the construction con­
ditions and planning constraints of urban DPRAGS, some units have the
potential to be damaged by catastrophes. To ensure the safety of evac­
uees, the Nanjing Emergency Management Bureau should strengthen
disaster risk monitoring and prediction and prepare emergency plans for
risk points in advance. In addition, build a disaster prevention and
mitigation network with close links between units to disperse part of the
emergency pressure of units. Establish a unified management platform,
use big data control technology to build a planning mechanism for
multi-unit collaboration in terms of personnel evacuation, information
exchange, material deployment, and intelligent platform construction,
effectively and timely integrate the resources and information of each
unit, and improve the risk hedging ability of the unit.
4.2.2. Form the coordination mechanism of elements in the layout unit
The layout of the unitary urban DPRAGS is conducive to ensuring a
complete internal disaster prevention space system, emergency facil­
ities, and disaster prevention elements to achieve self-sufficiency within
each unit. We should systematically control the space, materials, in­
stitutions, and other elements within the unit based on the idea of
collaborative governance, forming a disaster prevention map applicable
to the city. Furthermore, combine data combining technology, massive
data storage technology, information visualization technology, and
other big data means displaying real-time information for the evacua­
tion population within the unit, including the scope of control of the
unit, the degree of disaster impact, evacuation paths, and the remaining
green space. Thus, it can ensure a smooth flow in the evacuation space,
rescue agencies, and emergency greenways.
4.2.3. Improve the grass-roots work system for emergency management and
control
Effective management and control of urban DPRAGS require careful
attention not only to macro-level planning and site selection rationality
but also to establishing a standardized emergency management system
that links peacetime and disaster time. Moreover, based on the com­
munity, it is necessary to strengthen the construction of the emergency
control system and guarantee system for the grassroots organizations in
the main urban area, including the control contents and operation sys­
tem. And we should establish a community disaster prevention and
mitigation network information platform to clarify the content of the
facilities and vegetation reserve maintenance, management personnel
arrangement, inspection, and audit mechanism process. It is also
essential to deepen the knowledge education and exercise of disaster
prevention, reduction, and relief for residents, enhancing mutual assis­
tance abilities between communities and neighbors in the main urban
areas.
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Ecological Indicators 154 (2023) 110657
4.3. Limitations and future research
Refugee needs have been partially met, but there is still room for
further refinement and optimization. The first of the main difficulties is
predicting disasters and their associated secondary hazards accurately.
Although forecasting has improved, the interactions between these
hazards remain difficult to assess. Furthermore, population distribution
varies significantly from day to night, and the population is highly
mobile, making forecasts based on permanent residents lacking flexi­
bility, and unable to accurately describe the dynamic shifts of the pop­
ulation. In the future, 3D reconstruction, virtual simulation, and other
technologies should be introduced to realistically simulate disaster
development and crowd activities through the construction of 3D
models of the city to enhance the integrity and comprehensiveness of
assessment and analysis. Regarding the unitization layout, we lack the
consideration of people’s perception and familiarity with the sur­
rounding environment and green areas, and the plans of the units are
subjective to some extent. In a subsequent study, we should survey
residents to clarify their dependence on the environment and refine the
characteristics of disaster-stricken people’s activities during disasters.
These results will provide better planning with “people” as the focus,
meeting their actual needs with greater precision.
5. Conclusion
Disasters are a prevalent worldwide problem, hindering sustainable
and healthy global development. From the three perspectives of city,
disaster, and people, we have developed a method for green space layout
that encompasses infrastructure analysis, disaster analysis, green space
supply, and demand matching analysis. This approach improves the
disaster relevance and supply–demand matching of green space plan­
ning and enriches urban green space planning theory to a certain extent.
In addition, through a rational layout and maximum utilization of urban
green space, the evacuation cost in time and space can be minimized,
and the construction cost can be effectively reduced. This study can
guide the planning of Nanjing’s disaster prevention green network,
improve the composite functions of various types of green spaces, and
contribute to the construction of Nanjing’s disaster prevention and
mitigation management system. Moreover, it also has a typical
demonstration significance for the construction and management of the
DPRAGS system in other cities. In the future, as cities have more
concentrated populations, larger scales, and encounter more complex
disasters, researchers should further explore the coupling of multi-
hazard risks, clarify population perceptions and needs, match green
space functions, and improve the equity and evacuation efficiency of
DPRAGS, while considering the unique characteristics of cities.
CRediT authorship contribution statement
Wenjun Fei: Conceptualization, Visualization, Writing – original
draft, Writing – review & editing, Methodology, Formal analysis.
Dongxue Lu: Conceptualization, Data curation, Visualization, Writing –
original draft, Methodology, Investigation, Software. Zhongxiao Li:
Investigation, Visualization, Data curation, Software.
Declaration of Competing Interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence
the work reported in this paper.
Data availability
Data will be made available on request.
W. Fei et al.
Acknowledgment
This research was supported by the National Key R&D Program of
China (No. 2019YFD1100404).
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