Environment International 143 (2020) 105911

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Environment International
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/envint

Can groundwater be protected from the pressure of china's urban growth? T

a,b b,c d b,c b,e
Shanshan Hua , Hao Jing , Yingying Yao , Zhilin Guo , David N. Lerner ,
⁎
Charles B. Andrewsb,c, Chunmiao Zhengb,c,
a
School of Environment and Energy, Peking University, Shenzhen, China
b
Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Soil and Groundwater Pollution Control, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and
Technology, Shenzhen, China
c
State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Integrated Surface Water-Groundwater Pollution Control, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Southern
University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China
d
Department of Earth and Environmental Science, School of Human Settlements and Civil Engineering, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, China
e
Department of Civil and Structural Engineering, University of Sheffield, UK

A R T I C LE I N FO A B S T R A C T

Handling Editor: Dr Frederic Coulon Groundwater is expected to be more vulnerable to water-quality degradation in the future due to rapid urba-
Keywords: nization. However, despite knowledge that protecting future groundwater resources is necessary for sustainable
Urban expansion groundwater resource development, little is known about the role of groundwater policy in influencing the
Groundwater spatial distribution of urbanization. This study sheds light on how a policy that protects vulnerable groundwater
Climate change could affect the distribution of urban expansion. Groundwater vulnerability to pollution under future climate
GEOMOD change scenarios is used as a factor to generate urban expansion probability maps for China. The results indicate
China that there will be a significant and uneven urban growth by 2030, if current trends in urban expansion continue.
The amount of urban land in 2030 will range from 2.9 to 4.2 times the urban area in 2010. Meanwhile, the urban
expansion probability maps for projections with and without consideration of groundwater vulnerability in
urban suitability are compared. The comparation shows that consideration of a groundwater policy would
significantly alter the future spatial distribution of urban areas. Even with a weight of only 10% for groundwater
vulnerability in the urban suitability consideration, the percentage of change area in the urban expansion
probability distribution map can be as high as 60%. The probabilities of urban expansion are forecast to gra-
dually transfer from the southeast coastal areas to inland areas as higher weight (from 10% to 50%) of
groundwater vulnerability is given to urban suitability consideration. Our study demonstrates that groundwater
protection from urbanization pressures can be achieved, provides support for policy and decision makers in
evaluating options to modify existing urban expansion policies, and concludes that groundwater protection at
the macro-scale is an appropriate policy goal.

1. Introduction
Urbanization is a land transformation that involves the replacement
of natural land cover with buildings, impervious surfaces, and related
infrastructures (Paul et al., 2018). Urban growth is happening at an
unprecedented rate caused by the human population and economic
growth (Li et al., 2003, Angel et al., 2011, Bian et al., 2018), and is
exceptionally rapid in China where the urban population is projected to
increase by 255 million from 2018 to 2050 (United Nations et al.,
2018). There is an emerging consensus that urbanization is un-
acceptably degrading the environment despite its economic importance
and contribution to development (Zuo et al., 2018). Although urban
land cover is a relatively small fraction of the total earth surface, ex-
tensive urbanization drives important environmental changes which
include local to large scale biogeochemical cycles, climate change, and
changes to the hydrological cycle (Grimm et al., 2008). The rapid urban
expansion is likely to continue if urban populations continue to grow
and economic conditions continue to improve. Consequently, the in-
crease in urban land area will continue to dominate the deterioration of
the environment.
A fundamental concern is the impact of this urbanization on
groundwater (McDonald et al., 2011, Tubau et al., 2017; Yao et al.,
2019). The question of how urban expansion directly influences the
state of the groundwater quality has received much attention (Chisala

⁎
Corresponding author at: Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Soil and Groundwater Pollution Control, School of Environmental Science and Engineering,
Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China.
E-mail address: zhengcm@sustech.edu.cn (C. Zheng).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2020.105911
Received 29 February 2020; Received in revised form 14 June 2020; Accepted 15 June 2020
Available online 02 July 2020
0160-4120/ © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
S. Hua, et al.
and Lerner, 2008; Haque et al., 2012; Gabor et al., 2017). Urban ex-
pansion results in the deterioration of groundwater quality primarily as
the result of infiltration from storm and sanitary sewers, industrial ac-
tivities, landfill leachate and fertilizers used on green spaces (Doll,
2009; Khan et al., 2011; Arunprakash et al., 2013; Chitsazan et al.,
2017). Data from the national groundwater monitoring network reveals
over 60% of the groundwater in China is either poor or very poor
quality (class IV or V) (Hou et al., 2018).
In China, the government has promulgated a series of relevant po-
licies and regulations to manage groundwater during the past three
decades (e.g. “Water Pollution Prevention Plan”, “Law of the People’s
Republic of China on Prevention and Control of Water Pollution”).
However, an integrated and well-formulated plan to protect ground-
water resources during urban expansion has not been described or
implemented.
In addition to urbanization, climate change has a potential strong
influence on groundwater resources. Changing precipitation patterns
together with increased evapotranspiration in relation to increased
temperatures will affect groundwater recharge rates and the depth of
the groundwater table (Bovolo et al., 2009). Groundwater recharge
rates in different zones will increase or decrease in response to climate
change (Smerdon, 2017). Both changes would have significant effects
not only on depth of the groundwater table, but could also modify the
groundwater vulnerability (the likelihood of contaminants reaching the
groundwater system after introduction at the surface) (Huan et al.
2012; Hua et al., 2015; Aslam et al., 2018). Groundwater that have a
high degree of vulnerability and are in urban areas (contamination
source), is considered to be the most sensitive (Pettyjohn et al., 1991).
Therefore, to protect groundwater resources, groundwater vulnerability
is considered as an important factor in urbanization under potential
climate change (Holman et al. 2004, Neukum and Azzam 2009).
Groundwater vulnerability maps, which display and assist in iden-
tifying areas where groundwater are susceptible to contamination, are
important tools for sustainable land-use planning, particularly in me-
tropolitan areas of developing countries (Neukum et al., 2007; Rahman,
2008; Jang et al., 2015; Brindha and Elango, 2015). DRASTIC is an
overlay and index approach commonly used to characterize the vul-
nerability of groundwater because of its conceptual simplicity,
minimum data requirements and flexibility (Panagopoulos et al., 2006),
despite the criticism it has been subjected to (Foster and Skinner, 1995;
Dassargues et al., 2009). Its obvious disadvantages are related to sub-
jective nature of vulnerability evaluation and to the oversimplifications
in hydrogeological characterization. Nevertheless, it has a valuable role
in screening applications to determine areas of high vulnerability where
detailed research should be concentrated.
Our goal in this study is to identify how future urban expansion
would be altered by consideration of groundwater vulnerability under
future climatic conditions. China is considered as a case study area due
to its unprecedented economic growth, rapid urbanization, climate
change, and groundwater resources degradation, is used as an example.
Here we examine three questions complementary to the goal (1) Where
is groundwater most vulnerable to contamination under future climate
change scenario; (2) What is the likely magnitude and distribution of
urban expansion due to population and economic growth; (3) How
would consideration of groundwater vulnerability to contamination in
governmental policies affect the distribution of urbanization.
2. Materials and methods
2.1. Conceptual framework
To assess the role of a policy that protects vulnerable groundwater
resources in the process of urbanization, we use a framework that in-
corporates groundwater vulnerability under changing climate condi-
tions with an urban expansion model. The general conceptual frame-
work of this paper is shown in Fig. 1. We assess groundwater
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Environment International 143 (2020) 105911
vulnerability by the DRASTIC model with forecasted future climatic
conditions, and from this generate a future groundwater vulnerability
map. We predict the temporal growth and spatial distribution of ur-
banized areas in 2030. In the temporal growth section, a spatially ex-
plicit urban area expansion probability dataset, in terms of economic
and population growth, is used. In the spatial distribution section,
GEOMOD, a spatially explicit grid-based land change model, is used to
simulate the spatial distribution of urban expansion. Two kinds of
suitability maps are generated for GEOMOD. One suitability map con-
siders groundwater vulnerability while the other does not. We then
calculate, using GEOMOD, the spatial distribution of urban areas in
2030 with different weighs attached to groundwater vulnerability.
2.2. Future groundwater vulnerability under climate change
2.2.1. Groundwater vulnerability modeling
The DRASTIC method obtaining and combining maps of the para-
meters that affect the transport of contaminants from the surface to
groundwater (Rupert, 2001) is employed to estimate groundwater
vulnerability for two dates. They are the “present” (2010), and a pro-
jected “plus 20-year” (2030). Each of the DRASTIC factors [depth-to-
water table (D), net recharge (R), aquifer media (A), soil media (S),
topography (T), impact of the vadose zone (I), hydraulic conductivity
(C)] is assigned a rating and a numerical weighting to reflect its relative
importance in estimating groundwater vulnerable to pollution potential
(Aller et al. 1987, Kumar et al. 2014, Pisciotta et al. 2015) (Table S1) as
described in the Supporting Information.
Climate change directly affects R and D (Fu and Gomez-Hernandez,
2009). To predict future groundwater vulnerability under climate
change, the future estimate of R and D from RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0
and RCP8.5 proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR5) are used. As the likelihood
of each of the four climate scenarios is uncertain, we consider one
sample probability distribution denoted “uniform,” assuming each cli-
mate scenario is equally likely to occur (Crowe and Parker, 2008).
2.2.2. Parameters affected by climate change
R is the amount of water from precipitation and artificial sources
that migrates to the groundwater table (Mencio et al., 2011). In this
paper, we assume the net recharge is from precipitation at any location.
Recharge is calculated as Babiker et al. (2005):
Net recharge = (Precipitation - evapotranspiration) × Recharge ratio
(1)
The sources of data for calculating net recharge are described in
Supporting Information.
The depth-to-water table (D) is defined as the distance in which the
pollutants move through the soil media before reaching the ground-
water table (Wang et al., 2012). In this study, baseline (2010) D data
are from the China Groundwater Level Yearbook for Geo-environmental
Monitoring. The Cokriging interpolation technique correlating with the
K value, slope and net recharge is performed on the 1175 measured
depth to groundwater point data to generate a smooth surface. We
assumed that at any location there is only one water table (neglecting
local, perched aquifers) and groundwater pumping, irrigation, and
drainage are not represented in the recharge. The future D is calculated
with the following equation:
Rw, t − Rw, t = 0 ⎤
Dp, t = Dp, t = 0 − (Hp, t = 0 − Hlow, t = 0 ) ⎡
⎢ Rw, t = 0 ⎥ (2)
⎣ ⎦
where H is groundwater level, R is recharge rate, p is the pixel of in-
terest, low is the pixel with the lowest water level in the watershed, w is
the total for the complete watershed, t is the current time point, t = 0 is
the initial time (refer to Supporting Information).
S. Hua, et al.
Fig. 1. Conceptual framework for assessing the effect(s) of a policy for protecting groundwater in urbanization in China.
2.3. Estimating amount of urban expansion for 2030
Population and economic growth are the underlying drivers of
urban expansion (Liu et al., 2005). However, population and economic
growth projections for the future are highly uncertain. In this study, we
use a spatially explicit urban area expansion probability dataset (Seto
et al. 2012) to forecast the amount of urban expansion for 2030.
We use six types of data to forecast urban expansion: urban land
cover maps for 2000 and 2010 from Data Center for Resources and
Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences; population
density map from Gridded Population of the World (GPW), v4 in
Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center; urban population pro-
jections to 2030 from the United Nations; population projection un-
certainty ranges from the US National Research Council; GDP projec-
tions from the IPCC Special Reports on Emissions Scenarios; and the
percentage of China in GDP proportion from United States Department
of Agriculture. The forecasts include three parts (Fig. 2). In the first
part, we project the urban expansion induced by population growth. We
generate per capita urban land for 2030 by randomly drawing 1000
values from the corresponding probability density functions (PDFs) of
the urban population and the frequency of the population density dis-
tribution for 2000. In the second part, we project the urban expansion
induced by economic growth. We generate 1000 realizations of GDP per
capita by randomly drawing 1000 values from the uniform GDP dis-
tribution and divide them by 1000 values drawn from the population
projections for the same year. Then, we project the urban expansion
induced by both population and economic growth. We generate 1000
aggregate amounts of urban expansion for 2030 by using the 1000
urban population values and a regression equation (Fig. S3). In the
regression equation, the change in per capita urban land because of
increase in urban population is equal to the intercept; per capita urban
land caused by the GDP growth for 2030 is equal to the slope. The
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Environment International 143 (2020) 105911
details are described in the Supporting Information.
2.4. Simulating spatial distribution of urban expansion
2.4.1. Geomod
GEOMOD, which is a grid-based land-use and land-cover change
model, is used in this paper. It simulates the change between two land
categories denoted as “urban” and “nonurban” forwards or backwards
in time. Pontius et al. (2001) provide the full description and applica-
tion of GEOMOD. Our study uses the model’s framework in the prob-
abilistic analysis of land change, similar to Seto et al. (2012). The user
supplies a map of urban areas at the start time, information concerning
the number of grid cells of urban and non-urban land use at an end
time, and suitability maps. With this information, GEOMOD simulates
additional development by searching the landscape for the location of
the non-urban cells that have the highest suitability value. Based on
these inputs, the model simulates the spatial pattern of land use change
across the landscape.
2.4.2. Suitability map
The future expansion of urban areas will occur first on areas that are
most suitable for urbanization and thereafter occur in regions that are
less suitable. To estimate the role of a groundwater protection policy in
the process of urban expansion, we consider two kinds of suitability
maps to represent the sensitivity of urban land expansion to ground-
water vulnerability policy. One suitability map, denoted “baseline
suitability map,” is weighted heavily toward historic conditions,
whereas the other, denoted “policy suitability map,” uses groundwater
vulnerability as a factor in generating the suitability map.
The suitability maps require an initial urban map, a regional map, as
well as an exclusion mask and driver maps. Our model uses slope,
distance to roads, population density, land cover, and GDP as the
S. Hua, et al.
Fig. 2. Details of the approach for simulating the amount of urban area in 2030.
primary drivers of land change. These factors are assumed to have
primary influences on where urban change is likely to occur. In addition
to driver maps, a map that allows masking out areas off limits to ur-
banization is used. In this paper, we mask out protected areas to pre-
vent urbanization. The initial year is 2000. The urban map of 2010 is
used to validate the accuracy of the suitability map. The predicted
changes to the urban area from 2000 to 2010 are correct 74% of the
time (Fig. S5). With this information, we generate the two kinds of
suitability maps: 1) baseline suitability map which uses slope, distance
to roads, population density, land cover and GDP as the primary dri-
vers; 2) policy suitability map which adds groundwater vulnerability to
the set of primary drivers. The weight of groundwater vulnerability is
given three values (Table S3) representing three levels of priority for
policies to protect vulnerable groundwater in the suitability map. The
sources of the exclusion masks and the driver maps are detailed in the
Supporting Information.
3. Results
3.1. Spatial distribution of urban expansion in 2030
The probability of urban expansion simulated with the baseline
suitability map by 2030 is shown on Fig. 3. Our projections indicate
that there will be a large-scale expansion of urban land by 2030. The
amount of urban lands in 2030 is estimated to range from 2.9 times to
4.2 times the urban area in 2010; the land area converted to urban uses
between 2010 and 2030 is estimated to range from 117,875to
167,565 km2. Moreover, nearly half of the increase in high-probability
urban expansion is forecast to occur near the southeast coast of China,
with Guangdong, Jiangsu and Shanghai absorbing about 60% of the
amount for this coast. Urban expansion is forecast to create a 2700-km
coastal urban corridor from Qingdao to Shenzhen (Fig. 3). In inland
areas, urban expansion is forecast to be clustered around provincial
capital cities, with large areas of low-probability growth forecasted in
the western region, where conditions are still relatively backwards with
environmental degradation and poverty. Urban expansion will be
concentrated in three regions: Jing-jin-ji City Cluster ecoregion
(Fig. 3A), which contains Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei; Eastern Coastal
Cities of Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang (Fig. 3B); and cities along the
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Environment International 143 (2020) 105911
Pearl River (Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hong Kong) (Fig. 3C).
3.2. Groundwater vulnerability
Groundwater vulnerability in China in 2010 and 2030 are shown on
Fig. 4A and Fig. S6, respectively. Comparing these two years, projected
groundwater vulnerability patterns significantly shift under future cli-
matic conditions (Fig. 4B). About 13.7% of China has greater ground-
water vulnerability in 2030 than in 2010, and about 35.8% of China has
less groundwater vulnerability in 2030 than in 2010. Overall, the
greatest increases in groundwater vulnerability occur in Tibet, Inner
Mongolia, Xinjiang, and western Yunnan and southern Sichuan. By
2030, relatively vulnerable groundwater resource areas (southeast
coastal areas, northeast China and Tibet) still occupy a large portion of
China (54.5%).
3.3. Spatial distribution of urbanization to 2030 with consideration of
groundwater vulnerability
The changes in the probability of urban expansion with different
weights for groundwater vulnerability (10%, 30%, 50%) compared
with the baseline distribution of urban expansion are shown on Fig. 5,
Fig. S7 and Fig. 6, respectively.
Increasing the weight of groundwater vulnerability in policy suit-
ability maps, as expected, results in larger changes in urban probability
distribution from the baseline urban probability distribution (Fig. 5(A,
B, C), fig. S7(A, B, C) and Fig. 6(A, B, C)). Several patterns can also be
observed in the figures. First, comparing figures for the whole of China,
we can see that probabilities of urban expansion are forecast to gra-
dually transfer from the southeast coastal areas to inland as more
weight is given to groundwater protection. The proportion of urban
area expansion that occurs in inland areas by 2030 changes from 30%
in the baseline scenario to 75% in the policy scenario with the weight of
groundwater vulnerability at 50% (Fig. 6). Increasing the weight of
groundwater vulnerability in suitability map has a major impact on the
distribution of urban land expansion probabilities. In high vulnerability
regions, the land has a low suitability for conversion to urban. Second,
although some increases in probability of urban expansion are still
forecast to occur in the southeast coast of China, the expansion will be
S. Hua, et al.
Fig. 3. Probabilities distribution of urban expansion in China with baseline simulation in 2030. (A) spatial distribution of urban land in Jing-jin-ji City Cluster
ecoregion of China; (B) spatial distribution of urban land in Eastern Coastal Cities of Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang; and (C) spatial distribution of urban land cities
along the Pearl River (Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hong Kong);
not centralized in Guangdong, Jiangsu and Shanghai regions. High-
probability urban expansion will be in central China (Hunan, Hubei,
and Henan) as these areas will absorb 55% of amount for the central
China. Third, the Midwest region where many small villages and towns
currently exist could be converted to some large cities, as these regions
have relatively high biogeophysical values and low groundwater vul-
nerability which are considered suitable for urban expansion.
4. Discussion
4.1. Spatial distribution of urban expansion to 2030
China, as the largest developing country in the world, has experi-
enced unprecedented economic growth and extensive urbanization
since 1978. Its urban land area rapidly increased from 7438 km2 in
1978 to 58455.7 km2 in 2018 (CSY, 2016), with the expansion rate in
2018 approximately 7.8 times higher than that in 1990, and the rapid
urbanization is projected to continue. We estimate that the amount of
urban land in 2030 will range from 2.9 times to 4.2 times the urban
area in 2010. The range in forecasts of urban expansion reflects the
uncertainties in the drivers of population growth and GDP. History has
proven there remain large uncertainties around population-growth
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Environment International 143 (2020) 105911
estimates (Cohen, 2004). GDP, a strong driver of urban land expansion
in China also has large uncertainties. This range of possible urban ex-
pansion trajectories is indicative of the substantial leverage that urban
policy can have. For instance, there is currently a strong policy towards
rebalancing growth across China (the Belt and Road initiative being one
part of this).
Our results also found two spatial patterns which are first, low
probability of urbanization over large areas and second, high prob-
ability of urbanization in specific locations. Future urban expansion is
likely to be concentrated in only a few regions which have high suit-
ability. For example, there is a high probability that the coastal cities
from Qingdao to Shenzhen, will become a continuous built-up area. We
foresee of agglomeration into mega urban area centered on capital ci-
ties. Our spatial distribution simulation results are similar with the
results of Yao et al. (2017). The principal drivers of this urban dis-
tribution are GDP and population.
Additionally, 2018 United Nations urban population projections
(https://population.un.org/wup/DataQuery/) indicate that China’s
urban population is projected to continue increasing until 2050. As
population is a main driver for urban expansion, this trend suggests that
the dispersed urban forms in China will continue to dominate urban
expansion patterns through the first half of the 21st century. However,
S. Hua, et al.
how cities will physically grow and how they distribute their urban area
affects the sustainable development of our economy.
4.2. Groundwater vulnerability and its impact on spatial distribution of
urban expansion
Groundwater is fundamental to the economic and social health of
the urban population of the developing country. However, the quality
of groundwater is deteriorating rapidly due to urbanization (Foster,
2001; Ray and Elango, 2019). Although China has realized the im-
portance of groundwater and promulgated a series of relevant policies
and regulations to manage it, no detailed plans have been established to
take groundwater into consideration in the expansion of urban areas.
Our study identifies these inadequacies by considering groundwater
vulnerability as a factor in the suitability of locations for urban ex-
pansion.
Urban expansion has a large effect on groundwater quality through
contamination. Climate change will exert an additional influence on
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Environment International 143 (2020) 105911
Fig. 4. Distribution of groundwater vulnerability in
China. (A) groundwater vulnerability in 2010; (B)
Projected groundwater vulnerability change from
2010 to 2030 (decrease in vulnerability by 2 classes
means a change from very high to moderate, high
to low or moderate to very low; decrease in vul-
nerability by 1 class means a change from very high
to high, high to moderate, moderate to low or low
to very low; no change means the same as in 2010;
increase in vulnerability by 2 classes means a
change from moderate to very high, low to high or
very low to moderate; increase in vulnerability by 1
class means a change from high to very high,
moderate to high, low to moderate or very low to
low;).
groundwater vulnerability by changing the recharge condition and re-
charge rate to groundwater (Fig. S11) on top of urban expansion effects.
Urban growth and climate change together pose a significant challenge
for groundwater managers, but one that can be foreseen and planned
for well in advance. We use the groundwater vulnerability map under
future climatic conditions and examine the spatial overlap between
their locations and our forecasts of urban expansion. The results de-
monstrate that many areas with the greatest projected urban expansion
are likely to be in the areas of greatest groundwater vulnerability
leading to significant groundwater pollution risks in urban areas. Given
the near irreversibility of urban construction and groundwater pollu-
tion, it is critical for current urbanization-related policies to consider
their lasting impacts on groundwater. To avoid groundwater resource
pollution by urban expansion, policies for protecting vulnerable
groundwater resources need to be established.
The key driver behind the groundwater vulnerability analysis is the
recognition that the intrinsic hydrogeological conditions of the aquifers,
such as the depth to water table and magnitude of groundwater
S. Hua, et al.
Fig. 5. Change in probability of urbanization from 2010 to 2030 with a groundwater vulnerability weight of 10%. Note: areas with equal probability contain the
existing urban areas of 2010; (A) Jing-jin-ji City Cluster ecoregion of China; (B) Eastern Coastal Cities of Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang; and (C) cities along the
Pearl River (Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hong Kong).
recharge, determine how vulnerable the groundwater in the aquifers
would be in the presence of potential contaminant sources. Thus, in this
study, groundwater vulnerability to potential human-induced con-
tamination was calculated and mapped through DRASTIC as a simple-
to-use, easily manageable index system. The depth to water table is one
of the most important driving factors in the vulnerability analysis. An
increase or decrease in groundwater recharge under climate change
scenarios (2010–2030) will directly impact groundwater level, thereby
changing the depth to water table and causing the groundwater to
become more or less vulnerable than under the present climate condi-
tions (Fig. 4).
Subsequently, our study presents an analysis of future urban ex-
pansion with and without groundwater considerations at the macro-
scale and suggests that increasing the weight assigned to groundwater
vulnerability redirects urban expansion. Comparing urban distribution
of different groundwater protection levels provides us with guidance to
improve overall sustainability of groundwater. Our analysis shows that
a policy that protects vulnerable groundwater can have a significant
effect on the spatial distribution of urban expansion probability.
Although the magnitude of urban expansion is the same in all future
scenarios, the results show a large spatial variation in the location of
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Environment International 143 (2020) 105911
urban expansion among four probability urban expansion maps that
were generated in this study. The urban expansion constrained by a
policy that protects vulnerable groundwater dramatically illustrates
how the interactions between urban expansion and groundwater can
affect urban location choices. Urban distribution is highly sensitive to
groundwater vulnerability. Even with a weight of only 10% for
groundwater vulnerability in urban expansion consideration, the per-
centage of change area in the urban probability distribution map can be
as high as 60%.
Increasing the weight assigned to groundwater vulnerability re-
directs urban expansion from the coastland into the inland areas. This
result illustrates the importance of considering groundwater in the
process of urban development. It is necessary to reasonably balance the
benefits of urban sustainability policies and conservation policies in the
future. Moreover, it is noteworthy that other factors could also be
evaluated to better understand how groundwater drives land-use
change and affects its spatial distribution. In the future, for a better
understanding of land use dynamics, it will be necessary to consider
additional driving forces and environmental factors that impact the
urban expansion pattern, such as the accessibility to groundwater as a
reliable clean water resource.
S. Hua, et al.
Fig. 6. Change in probability of urbanization from 2010 to 2030; groundwater vulnerability weight is 50%. Note: areas with equal probability contain the existing
urban areas of 2010. (A) Jing-jin-ji City Cluster ecoregion of China; (B) Eastern Coastal Cities of Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang; and (C) cities along the Pearl River
(Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hong Kong).
5. Summary and conclusions
Our goal in this study was to identify how the spatial distribution of
future urban expansion in China, which is experiencing unprecedented
economic growth, rapid urbanization, climate change, and ground-
water resources degradation, is likely to be altered by consideration of
groundwater vulnerability. We determined the magnitude and dis-
tribution of urban expansion due to population and economic growth;
where groundwater will be most vulnerable to contamination under
forecasted climatic conditions in 2030; and how forecasts of the spatial
distribution of urban expansion could be altered by consideration of
groundwater vulnerability in governmental policies that affect the
distribution of urbanization.
Dramatic increases in urban areas are projected through 2030. The
amount in projected urban areas in 2030 ranges from 2.9 to 4.2 times
that in 2010. Much of this urban growth will occur in three regions: the
Jing-jin-ji City Cluster ecoregion, which contains Beijing, Tianjin and
Hebei; eastern coastal cities of Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang; and
cities along the Pearl River, including Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Hong
Kong.
Groundwater vulnerability is forecast to change from 2010 to 2030
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Environment International 143 (2020) 105911
as the result of changing climatic conditions. Groundwater vulnerability
patterns are estimated to significantly shift between 2010 and 2030.
About 13.7% of China has greater groundwater vulnerability in 2030,
and about 35.8% of China has less groundwater vulnerability in 2030.
Overall, the greatest increases in groundwater vulnerability are pro-
jected to occur in Tibet, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, western Yunnan and
southern Sichuan.
If protection of vulnerable groundwater was considered as a gov-
ernment policy in determining future urban areas, there would be sig-
nificant shifts in the spatial distribution of urban areas from the simu-
lated baseline conditions in 2030. The result of a policy of protecting
vulnerable groundwater is a redirection of urban expansion to more
inland areas. If such a protection policy is weighted heavily, the shift to
inland areas would be significant. On the other hand, a more modest
weighing of such a policy, which is a more realistic outcome, results in
only a modest shift in the spatial distribution of urban expansion.
This study provides insights about the urbanization of China by
using spatially explicit probabilistic forecasts of urban expansion. The
results show that there is large spatial variation in the magnitude and
location of urban expansion in China due to the uncertainty of popu-
lation and GDP. The next few decades will be a period of large-scale
S. Hua, et al.
urban expansion in China and without a policy that protects vulnerable
groundwater, much of this expansion will take place in areas char-
acterized by high or very high groundwater vulnerability. This study
suggests groundwater protection at the macro-scale should be an ad-
ditional policy goal for urbanization.
CRediT authorship contribution statement
Shanshan Hua: Conceptualization, Methodology, Formal analysis,
Writing - original draft. Hao Jing: Software, Validation, Data curation.
Yingying Yao: Visualization, Investigation. Zhilin Guo: Writing - re-
view & editing. David N. Lerner: Writing - review & editing. Charles B.
Andrews: Writing - review & editing. Chunmiao Zheng:
Conceptualization, Supervision, Writing - review & editing.
Acknowledgements
This work has been supported by the National Key R&D program of
China (project number 2016YFC0402806). Additional support was
provided by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)
(Grant No. 41330632), by Shenzhen Peacock Plan (Grant No.
KQTD201602261958402), and the Leading Talents of Guangdong
Province Program (Grant No. 2016LJ06N469). We are grateful to the
China Meteorological Data Service Center (CMDC) for providing the
precipitation and evaporation data.
Appendix A. Supplementary data
Supplementary data to this article can be found online at https://
doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2020.105911.
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