Catena 194 (2020) 104678

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Catena
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The potential for soil erosion control associated with socio-economic T

development in the hilly red soil region, southern China
⁎ ⁎
L. Wanga,b, H. Yana, X.W. Wanga, Z. Wanga, S.X. Yua, T.W. Wanga, , Z.H. Shia,b,
a
College of Resources and Environment, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China
b
CAS Center for Excellence in Quaternary Science and Global Change, Xi'an 710061, China

A R T I C LE I N FO A B S T R A C T

Keywords: Socio-economic development greatly affects soil erosion and the implementation of soil and water conservation
Soil erosion (SWC) techniques. Here, we proposed a new index, the potential for soil erosion control (P), and investigated
Potential for soil erosion control socio-economic determinants for ΔP using Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR) during 2005–2015 in the hilly
Soil conservation red soil region of southern China. P was defined as 1 minus the ratio of the minimum possible soil erosion to the
Socio-economic factors
actual soil erosion, which can reflect the gap between the actual soil erosion and the minimum possible soil
Hilly red soil region
erosion. According to P, it would be impossible for 100% of the study area to experience a soil erosion rate of less
than the tolerable soil erosion rate due to the biophysical limits, which would avoid waste caused by excessive
governance. The two PLSR models were statistically significant and the selected socio-economic factors can
account for 37% and 28% of the variations in the positive and negative |ΔP|, respectively. Base on the PLSR
model for the positive |ΔP|, the VIP value of urban population growth (URBPOP_GR) and rural population
growth (RURPOP_GR) were −1.31 and 1.71, respectively, demonstrating that URBPOP_GR suppressed erosion
while RURPOP_GR increased erosion. Government investment in afforestation can significantly reduce soil
erosion (VIP greater than 1). Increasing grain output per km2 would reduce the positive |ΔP|, indicating that
advanced farming practices can balance production and soil protection. These results emphasized that policies
for soil erosion control should be developed from not only a simplistic technological perspective but also a social-
ecological perspective, and economic growth will control soil erosion effectively if it can provide more positive
feedback to rural areas.

1. Introduction implemented throughout the world (Morgan, 2009). The effectiveness

Soil erosion is a major cause of soil degradation and is widespread
worldwide (Amundson et al., 2015; García-Ruiz et al., 2015; Liu et al.,
2018). Soil erosion also causes significant offsite sediment-related
problems, e.g., increased sedimentation and pollution in downstream
waterbodies, enhanced flooding and deteriorated aquatic ecosystems
(Poesen, 2018). Soil erosion increased by 2.5% from 2001 to 2012
owing to global land-use changes (Borrelli et al., 2017), and the mag-
nitude of anthropogenic acceleration of soil erosion remains uncertain.
Given that soil erosion rates from conventionally ploughed agricultural
fields average 1–2 orders of magnitude greater than the rates of soil
production or erosion under natural conditions (Montgomery, 2007),
the prevention of soil erosion has been and continues to be a tre-
mendous challenge in maintaining the soil for food and water security
around the world.
Many soil and water conservation (SWC) techniques have been
of SWC techniques can be obtained by directly assessing the reduction
in soil erosion after the implementation of SWC techniques according to
measured data (Smets et al., 2008; Maetens et al., 2012; Mekonnen
et al., 2015; Yan et al., 2015; Prosdocimi et al., 2016; Wang et al., 2016)
and erosion modelling (Hessel and Tenge, 2008; Wickama et al., 2015;
Quiñonero-Rubio et al., 2016; Demelash et al., 2018; Kassawmar et al.,
2018). Plot measurements are appropriate for the field scale, but they
are discredited when used over a large scale (de Vente et al., 2013),
while at a large scale, continuous sediment data in time and space are
often scarce (Vercruysse et al., 2017). Erosion modelling can be used
over a large scale, but many input parameters are difficult to obtain,
and the modelling results largely depend on pixel size (Hessel and
Tenge, 2008; de Vente et al., 2013). Fallout radionuclides can be used
for both small-scale and large-scale soil erosion estimation (Dercon
et al., 2012; Walling et al., 2014), but this technique relies upon a
number of assumptions and is therefore questioned (Parsons and Foster,

⁎
Corresponding authors at: College of Resources and Environment, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China.
E-mail addresses: wangtianwei@webmail.hzau.edu.cn (T.W. Wang), shizhihua70@gmail.com (Z.H. Shi).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2020.104678
Received 22 January 2020; Received in revised form 2 May 2020; Accepted 12 May 2020
0341-8162/ © 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
L. Wang, et al.
Fig. 1. Map of the hilly red soil region of southern China.
2011). There have also recently been indirect evaluations of the effec-
tiveness of SWC techniques from socio-economic perspectives (Das and
Bauer, 2012; Dominati et al., 2014). For example, Dominati et al.
(2014) evaluated the effectiveness of SWC techniques by comparing
changes in the economic value of ecosystem services before and after
implementing SWC techniques. However, the above-mentioned
methods are not practical for local decision makers because of the high
technical requirements. Local decision makers prefer to use simple
methods such as an indicator named the degree of soil erosion man-
agement, defined as the ratio of areas that have implemented SWC
techniques to areas that experience soil erosion (Su et al., 2011), al-
though its accuracy is lower than the previous methods. Because in-
effective SWC techniques would scarcely reduce runoff and soil loss
although they are applied to all areas experiencing soil erosion. The soil
erosion control degree has been proposed and is the ratio of the
minimum possible soil erosion rate to the actual soil erosion rate (Gao
et al., 2016). However, none of the existing indicators directly reflect
whether a region still needs further governance or how much is needed.
Therefore, it is necessary to propose new indicators of soil erosion
control that better balance convenience and accuracy from the per-
spective of decision makers.
Soil erosion control is influenced by natural and anthropogenic
factors (Boardman et al., 2003). Compared with natural factors, an-
thropogenic factors are easier to change and regulate in the short term,
although it is very difficult. The social, economic, and political situation
in a given target region greatly affects soil erosion and the im-
plementation of SWC techniques (Ananda and Herath, 2003; Borrelli
et al., 2017; Poesen, 2018; Wuepper et al., 2020). Poverty is a major
source of soil erosion because of the overuse of natural resources and
the inability to implement soil conservation measures (Ananda and
Herath, 2003; Borrelli et al., 2017). Social and economic development
may encourage policymakers to increase investment in controlling soil
erosion. Government-driven programmes have played a pivotal role in
promoting SWC measures (Fu et al., 2017). For example, the Chinese
government has initiated at least five national programmes associated
with SWC since the 1980s. The area experiencing soil erosion in China
2
Catena 194 (2020) 104678
remarkably declined from 3.67 million km2 in 1986 to 2.74 million km2
in 2018 according to the Chinese Ministry of Water Resources. How-
ever, measures taken by the government to alleviate soil erosion are
critically influenced by participants, such as farmers. Farmers, espe-
cially those who are poor, have often not adopted these conservation
practices due to a lack of knowledge and capital or profitability, but
wealthy farmers tend to adopt soil conservation measures and con-
sciously maintain these measures (Ananda and Herath, 2003; Halim
et al., 2007). Accordingly, socio-economic factors influence government
decisions and perceptions and the behaviours of people, which have
direct and indirect impacts on soil erosion control.
In China, the rapid economic growth and accelerated urbanization
and the large population base have all exacerbated the land degradation
associated with soil erosion. Although the Chinese government invests
substantially in soil erosion control, China is still one of the largest and
most eroded regions (Borrelli et al., 2017). In the hilly red soil region of
southern China, soil erosion is often overlooked due to the high vege-
tation cover. However, this region has high annual average rainfall
erosivity values and a large population density, and it is also an im-
portant producer of tropical and subtropical fruits, cash crops and food
crops. Heavy rainfall coupled with severe human disturbances cause
soil erosion. The control of soil erosion in this region would not only
maintain the ecological balance but also ensure food security and
economic growth. After decades of large-scale and considerable in-
vestments, widespread extensive management based on the existing soil
erosion index would not gain a good effect. As a result, we propose a
new index called the potential for soil erosion control (P) based on the
soil erosion control degree proposed by Gao et al. (2016). P can reflect
the remaining amount of soil erosion control to decision makers. A
ubiquitous phenomenon is that serious efforts are implemented to
control soil erosion; however, in the same area as these efforts are
implemented, the behaviour that causes soil erosion is also difficult to
avoid. Accordingly, the objectives of this study are to (1) investigate the
dynamic changes in the P and (2) identify socio-economic determinants
for decreasing and increasing P, respectively. The results of this study
will provide basis for policy decision-making on soil erosion control in
L. Wang, et al.
Fig. 2. Representative photo of the study area: (a) an area with better socioeconomic development, with more terraces for growing cash crops and (b) an area with
less socioeconomic development, with shrubs, weeds and trees scattered on the hillslopes. This photo also showed areas that were less prone to soil erosion (a) and
were prone to soil erosion (b).
southern China and have implications for other rapidly developing re-
gions with substantial agricultural activities and severe soil erosion.
2. Materials and methods
2.1. Study area
The hilly red soil region of southern China (107°49′-123°25′ E,
21°22′-31°19′ N) covers a total area of 796,000 km2, approximately
8.3% of the total area of China, including 50 municipalities with
complete administrative boundaries of 6 provinces (Fig. 1). The re-
presentative photo of the study area was illustrated in Fig. 2. Fig. 2a
shows regions with better socioeconomic development, where terraces
for growing cash crops are widely distributed, while Fig. 2b shows re-
gions with less socioeconomic development, where shrubs, weeds and
trees are scattered on the hillslopes. The study area has a humid sub-
tropical monsoon climate, with an average annual precipitation of more
than 1400 mm, which is more than twice the average annual rainfall of
China. Specifically, the temporal distribution of rainfall is irregular, and
70% of rainfall is concentrated from April to September. The average
annual temperature ranges from 15 to 25 °C, and the average annual
sunshine duration is 1489–2900 h. Due to its abundant water and heat
resources, the average forest coverage rate is 52%, which is higher than
the average level in China. The main tree species are Pinus massoniana,
Cinnamomum camphora, Cunninghamia lanceolata, and Eucalyptus ro-
busta Smith. The main soil type is red soil with an organic matter con-
tent between 1% and 5%, and the soil is sticky and the water perme-
ability is poor (Ministry of Water Resources of China, 2010). This region
has 40% of the nation's population and has long been one of the main
production areas for grain crops, industrial crops and marketable fruit
in China. For example, grain production in this area accounts for ap-
proximately 30% of national grain production, and rice production
accounts for approximately 75% of national rice production (Ministry
of Water Resources of China, 2010). As a result, water erosion occurs
widely in this region, owing to heavy rains, heavily weathered red soils
and frequent agricultural activities.
2.2. Estimating soil erosion by CSLE
2.2.1. Actual soil erosion
This study uses the Chinese Soil Loss Equation (CSLE) (Liu et al.,
2002), which was developed based on the Universal Soil Loss Equation
(USLE) (Wischmeier and Smith, 1978) and its revised version (RUSLE)
(Renard et al., 1997), to calculate the annual average soil loss. Soil
erosion in China has two distinctive features: soil erosion commonly
3
Catena 194 (2020) 104678
occurs on steep slopes, and systematic practices for soil conservation
exist. As a result, the CSLE was designed for steeper slopes (9–55%),
and the cover management factor (C-factor) and support practices
factor (P-factor) in the USLE and RUSLE were replaced with the bio-
logical control factor (B-factor), engineering control (E-factor) and til-
lage practices factor (T-factor). After analysing approximately 1841
plot-year data collected from most regions of China, the CSLE was ex-
pressed as follows (Liu et al., 2002):
A = R × K × LS × B × E × T (1)
where A is the annual average soil loss (t ha−1 yr−1); R is the rainfall
runoff erosivity factor (MJ mm ha-1h−1 yr−1); K is the soil erodibility
factor (t ha h ha−1 MJ−1 mm−1); LS is the slope length factor and the
slope steepness factor (dimensionless); B, E and T are the biological
control, engineering control and tillage practices factors (dimension-
less), respectively.
The R factor was estimated using monthly precipitation data
(Renard and Freimund, 1994). Precipitation data from 1971 to 2015
were provided by the National Meteorological Administration of China
(http://data.cma.cn/en). The K factor was calculated by a function of
soil organic matter and soil texture according to Sharpley and Williams
(1990). The relevant soil information was derived from the second
national soil census data combined with soil maps of the corresponding
provinces (http://vdb3.soil.csdb.cn/). The LS factor was obtained from
the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) at 30 m using the equations pro-
posed by Renard et al. (1997). The values of B, E and T were derived
from the SWC survey report (Editorial Board of the First Nationwide
Water Resources Survey Series, 2017), in which B was related to ve-
getation cover and land use, and E and T were related to slope, land use,
farming methods, crop rotation systems, and coverage of SWC en-
gineering measures. Vegetation cover was calculated by the Normalized
Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), which was extracted from the
Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products for
2005–2015 (https://modis.ornl.gov/documentation.html). Land-use
data for 2005 and 2015 were provided by the Resource and Environ-
ment Data Cloud Platform (http://www.resdc.cn/). The coverage area
of the SWC engineering measures was derived from the SWC mon-
itoring data for each province (http://www.mwr.gov.cn/sj/tjgb/
zgstbcgb/). The farming methods and crop rotation systems were de-
rived from China's agricultural divisions (http://www.resdc.cn/). In
this study, the calculation of soil erosion is based on pixels with a 30 m
resolution. Accordingly, the actual soil erosion of the study area for
2005 and 2015 can be obtained (Fig. 3a and b).
L. Wang, et al.
Fig. 3. The actual soil erosion of the study area for 2005 (a) and 2015 (b); the minimum possible soil erosion of the study area (c).
2.2.2. Minimum possible soil erosion
The minimum possible soil erosion in an area was defined as the soil
erosion in that area when the maximum amount of suitable SWC
measures was implemented. Different SWC techniques require different
site conditions. Accordingly, the distribution of suitable sites for cor-
responding SWC techniques can be investigated. If more than one type
of SWC technique could be implemented at a site, then the terrace
technique was first implemented, then forestland and finally grassland.
Assuming that suitable sites had the proper SWC techniques fully im-
plemented, soil erosion at these sites would reach the minimum level
(Gao et al., 2016). The minimum possible soil erosion of the study was
showed in Fig. 3c.
2.3. Calculating potential for soil erosion control
2.3.1. Potential for soil erosion control
Potential for soil erosion control can directly show decision makers
how much soil erosion needs to be controlled, which can be expressed
as follows:
P = 1 − Amin / Aactual
where P is the potential for soil erosion control (dimensionless), Amin is
the minimum possible soil erosion in a region (t ha−1 yr−1) and Aactual
is the actual soil erosion in the corresponding region (t ha−1 yr−1). P
ranges from 0 to 1. The P values close to 0 indicate that the actual soil
erosion is close to the minimum possible soil erosion, reflecting that the
region has been implementing the maximum amount of suitable SWC
measures. This scenario implies that a region has no need to implement
new SWC measures and that maintenance of the current SWC measures
is already minimizing soil erosion. In contrast, a region has a large area
where SWC measures need to be implemented when the P values are
Catena 194 (2020) 104678
close to 1.
2.3.2. Regional change in soil erosion control potential
The regional change in P (ΔP) refers to the cumulative change in P
per unit area in each municipality. The P decreased or increased from
2005 to 2015, and we summed the increased and decreased parts se-
parately. As a result, each municipality had a positive potential change
value and a negative potential change value. Therefore, we separately
identified the causes of increased potential change values and de-
creased potential change values. The regional change in P can be ex-
pressed as follows:
n
ΔP = ∑ (Pi,2015 − Pi,2005)/Area
i=1 (3)
where ΔP is the regional change in P; Pi,2015 and Pi,2005 are the P values
of the pixel i for 2015 and 2005, respectively; n is the number of pixels
included in the calculation; and Area is the area of the corresponding
municipality. We set |ΔP| as an independent variable and investigated
the relationship between socio-economic factors and both the positive
|ΔP| and negative |ΔP| values.
(2)
2.4. Socio-economic data sources
The socio-economic data of 50 municipalities in the study area were
derived from their corresponding Statistical Yearbooks for the period
from 2005 to 2015. We selected four demographic variables, five eco-
nomic variables, four cultivation variables and two policy variables,
which are described in detail in Table 1. The selected socio-economic
variables were important factors influencing soil erosion or land de-
gradation according to previous research (Ananda and Herath, 2003;
Boardman et al., 2003; Halim et al., 2007; Vu et al., 2014).
4
L. Wang, et al.
Table 1
Socio-economic data preparation for this study.
Variable Description
Demographic variables:
POPDEN_CHG Change in population density
URBPOP_GR Annual urban population growth rate
RURPOP_GR Annual rural population growth rate
TOTPOP_GR Annual total population growth rate
Economic variables:
GDP_CAP Gross domestic product per capita
GDP_AREA Gross domestic product per km2
GDP_GR Annual gross domestic product growth rate
AGR_GR Annual growth rate of gross output value of agriculture
AGR_CAP Mean annual gross output value of agriculture per capita
Cultivation variables:
SOW_RATIO Ratio of sown area of crops to land area of the whole district. Sown area of crops refers to area of all land (cultivated or non-
cultivated area) sown or transplanted with crops that are harvested within the calendar year by agricultural products. The main
crops include cereals, beans, tubers, oil crops, cotton, sugar, herbs, vegetables and melons.
SOW_GR Annual growth rate of sown area of crops
GRA_ AREA Grain (including cereals, beans and tubers) output per km2
GRA_GR Annual growth rate of grain output
Policy variables:
GOV_AREA Mean annual government input in afforestation per km2
GOV_CAP Mean annual government input in afforestation per capita
2.5. Data analysis
We used partial least squares regression (PLSR) to identify the socio-
economic factors that were most strongly associated with ΔP rather
than to predict ΔP. A preliminary analysis indicated that many socio-
economic variables showed strong collinearity (Table S1). PLSR is
especially useful when predictors are highly correlated, and it has re-
cently been widely used in ecology, hydrology and soil research (Shi
et al., 2013; Trap et al., 2013; Zhang et al., 2015). In the PLSR model,
R2 indicates the goodness-of-fit; Q2 is the cross-validated R2, which
indicates the goodness of prediction. Moreover, cross-validation is used
to determine the appropriate number of components in the PLSR model,
and a component is significant when Q2 > 0.05 with 100 observations
or less. PLSR can calculate the relative influence of each independent
variable by the variable importance of projection (VIP), and in-
dependent variables with a VIP > 1 are the most significant. In this
study, two PLSR models were constructed to investigate the main socio-
economic drivers of the positive |ΔP| and the negative |ΔP|. The PLSR
was run in SIMCA 14.1 (Umetrics AB, Sweden).
3. Results
3.1. Dynamic changes in the potential for soil erosion control
The soil erosion rate was calculated for 75% of the hilly red soil
region of southern China (600,000 km2 out of a total of 796,000 km2)
after removing regions that were not sensitive to soil erosion, such as
lakes and rivers. The soil erosion rate of 500 t km−2 yr−1 is given as the
tolerable soil erosion rate of the red soil region of southern China based
on standards for classification and gradation of soil erosion (SL190-
2007) published by the Ministry of Water Resources of China.
According to the minimum possible soil erosion rate, the soil erosion
rate was less than 500 t km−2 yr−1 over more than 80% of the study
area when the maximum amount of suitable SWC measures were im-
plemented (Table 2). The comparison of the area that experienced less
than 500 t km−2 yr−1 of soil erosion in 2015 with the area of minimum
possible soil erosion indicated that approximately 10% of the study area
can reduce its soil erosion rate to less than 500 t km−2 yr−1 if the
maximum amount of suitable SWC measures are implemented
(Table 2). These results indicated that the implementation of suitable
SWC measures can efficiently reduce soil erosion, but the reduction is
limited by natural conditions such as topography and precipitation;
5
Catena 194 (2020) 104678
Unit
–
%
%
%
yuan/person
100 million yuan/
km2
%
%
yuan/person
–
%
t/km2
%
yuan/km2
yuan/person
thus, it would be almost impossible for 100% of the study area to ex-
perience a soil erosion rate of less than 500 t km−2 yr−1. Therefore,
using P instead of the actual soil erosion rate to assess the current status
of soil erosion would more effectively identify areas that do require soil
erosion control, so that resources can be used rationally.
Fig. 4 illustrates that the P throughout the study area generally
decreased from 2005 to 2015, and the P in the southwest was generally
higher than that in the northeast. We classified the P into four levels:
0–0.1, 0.1–0.3, 0.3–0.6 and 0.6–1 through field surveys and re-
commendations from local decision makers to represent extremely low,
low, moderate and high P, respectively. In 2015, more than 40% of the
study area still had a high P (Fig. 5). Specifically, in the 0–500 t km−2
yr−1 soil erosion class, more than 50% of the study area had extremely
low P, and the proportion of the area with high P decreased from 36%
in 2005 to 28% in 2015 (Fig. 5), implying that a greater reduction in
erosion was achieved in regions with less severe soil erosion. In con-
trast, in the regions with soil erosion rates greater than 500 t km−2
yr−1, which covered more than 75% of the study area, had high P
(Fig. 5). The P scarcely changed when the soil erosion was greater than
2500 t km−2 yr−1 throughout the ten-year period, and more than 96%
of these areas had high P. Although the regions with soil erosion greater
than 2500 t km−2 yr−1 accounted for less than 10% of the total study
area, the erosion in this area accounted for 55% of the total soil erosion
(Table 2). These results indicated that more attention should be paid to
erosion control in severely eroded areas. Although soil erosion control
in these areas is difficult, once a reasonable treatment is carried out, a
substantial amount of soil erosion can be reduced.
The changes in the P from 2005 to 2015 are shown in Fig. 6. The
change in P from −1 to 1 was divided equally at intervals of 0.05, and
the number of grid cells in an interval can be obtained by considering
both the amount of change in potential and the initial value of the
potential (P2005) (Fig. 6). The P did not change in approximately 21% of
the study area from 2005 to 2015 (Fig. 6). The P changed slightly by
approximately 0.05 in more than 50% of the study area, as reflected by
peaks 2 (Fig. 6a). We speculated that these small changes were caused
by climate fluctuations or low-intensity human interference. In con-
trast, peaks 1 and 3 in Fig. 6a show remarkable changes in the P, which
were greater than 0.8. We attributed the remarkable changes in P to the
strong influence of human activities because strong human disturbance
usually leads to concentrated and dramatic changes. We focused on the
remarkable changes in the P associated with strong human interference,
which often leads to damage to ecosystems that are difficult to restore.
L. Wang, et al. Catena 194 (2020) 104678

Table 2
Analysis of minimum possible soil erosion rate (Amin) per class and actual soil erosion rate (Aactual) per class in 2005 and 2015 (in whole study area of 600,000 km2).†
Soil erosion class Amin Aactual in 2005 Aactual in 2015
t km−2 yr−1
% of % contribution to total erosion % of % contribution to total erosion % of % contribution to total erosion
total area total area total area

0–500 81.24% 92.91% 67.92% 13.86% 71.53% 14.63%

500–2500 16.34% 6.95% 24.80% 30.92% 21.80% 31.19%
2500–5000 1.65% 0.14% 4.01% 16.35% 3.79% 17.40%
5000–8000 0.30% 0 1.64% 12.00% 1.52% 12.41%
8000–15000 0.17% 0 1.17% 14.48% 1.01% 13.95%
> 15000 0.30% 0 0.46% 12.38% 0.35% 10.42%

†
Tolerable soil erosion rate < 500 t km−2 yr−1 (based on standards for classification and gradation of soil erosion (SL190-2007) published by the Ministry of
Water Resources of China).

Moreover, we investigated the relationship between remarkable
changes in P and socio-economic development to avoid the irreversible
ecological damage caused by socio-economic development. The amount
of area with remarkable changes in P covered 23% of the study area, of
which 16% of the areas had reduced P and 7% had increased P. Ac-
cordingly, the main socio-economic factors that led to the increase and
decrease in P can be identified separately, which will be discussed in
detail below.
3.2. Socio-economic determinants of soil erosion control potential
Table 3 shows the statistical analysis results of the selected socio-
economic factors. The total population (TOTPOP_GR) grew slowly, and
the corresponding population density (POPDEN_CHG) did not change
substantially during 2005–2015 (Table 3). More specifically, the urban
population (URBPOP_GR) increased at a rate of 3.15%, while the rural
population (RURPOP_GR) decreased at a rate of 1.61% (Table 3), which
indicated that a large number of rural populations were converted into
urban populations in conjunction with the urbanization process in
China. The annual growth rate of the GDP (GDP_GR) during 2005–2015
was very high, and the average growth rate reached 11.73%. The an-
nual growth rate of the gross output value of agriculture (AGR_GR) also
grew rapidly in these ten years. The annual growth rate of the sown
area of crops (SOW_GR) and of grain output (GRA_GR) were −0.05%
and −0.40%, respectively, indicating that the sown area of crops and
the grain output were slightly reduced. During 2005–2015, the Chinese
government had different levels of capital investment in afforestation in
various municipalities. The mean annual government investment in
afforestation was 13990.30 yuan/km2 and 47.05 yuan/person. Ad-
ditionally, these socio-economic factors showed correlations among
themselves (Table S1).
We focused on regions where the P remarkably changed from 2005
to 2015, which was reflected by peaks 1 and 3 in Fig. 6a, and the
corresponding data points are shown in Fig. 7. To match the scale of
socio-economic data, the remarkable increase and decrease in P were
aggregated at the municipality level to obtain the positive |ΔP| and the
negative |ΔP|, respectively. A summary of the two PLSR models con-
structed separately for the positive |ΔP| and the negative |ΔP| are
presented in Table 4. The two PLSR models were statistically sig-
nificant, but their predictive power was low (R2 was 0.37 for the po-
sitive |ΔP| and 0.28 for the negative |ΔP|). In this study, we aimed to
identify factors that influenced the positive and the negative |ΔP| rather
than to predict ΔP. The most significant predictors of the variability of
the positive |ΔP| were URBPOP_GR, RURPOP_GR, the mean annual
gross output value of agriculture per capita (AGR_CAP), the ratio of
sown area of crops to land area of the whole district (SOW_RATIO), the
grain output per km2 (GRA_AREA) and the mean annual government
investment in afforestation per km2 (GOV_AREA) (VIP > 1) (Table 4).
In contrast, the most significant predictors to explain the variability of
in the negative |ΔP| were URBPOP_GR, the gross domestic product per
capita (GDP_CAP), the gross domestic product per km2 (GDP_AREA),
SOW_GR, GOV_AREA and the mean annual government input in af-
forestation per capita (GOV_CAP) (VIP > 1) (Table 4). These results
indicated that the main factors that led to increased soil erosion were
different from the main factors that caused decreased soil erosion, and
there were no such types of socio-economic factors that showed an
absolute advantage in affecting soil erosion changes.
4. Discussion
4.1. The potential for soil erosion control associated with socio-economic
development
Population pressure has always been considered an important factor
affecting soil erosion, but the relationship between population dy-
namics and soil erosion is still uncertain (Ananda and Herath, 2003;
Halim et al., 2007; Jorgenson and Burns, 2007; DeFries et al., 2010; Vu
et al., 2014). Table 4 indicates that the impact of changes in the total

Fig. 4. Hotspot maps for soil erosion control potential (P) in 2005 (a) and 2015 (b) that were created with kernel density estimates.

6
L. Wang, et al. Catena 194 (2020) 104678

Fig. 5. Percentage of soil erosion control potential (P) (0–0.1, 0.1–0.3, 0.3–0.6 and 0.6–1) in different soil erosion classes in 2005 (a) and 2015 (b).

population on ΔP was not significant due to the low total population
growth rate; however, population dynamics in rural and urban areas
were both highly correlated with ΔP, and these effects were in opposite
directions. Previous studies have highlighted that it is crucial to con-
sider changes in rural populations and urban populations, especially in
combination with national development and domestic institutional
changes (Jorgenson, 2006; Jorgenson and Burns, 2007). Rural
population growth increased the positive |ΔP| (Table 4) because rural
population growth is considered to be positively related to the like-
lihood of deforestation for settlement and extensive agricultural pro-
duction (Jorgenson and Burns, 2007). In particular, farmers experien-
cing poor economic conditions will be more dependent on natural
resources for survival (Ananda and Herath, 2003). Poor farmers are
more inclined to cut trees or collect litter as fuel, leading to soil surface

Fig. 6. The area of change in soil erosion control potential (P) as a percentage of the total area during 2005–2015: (a) for the whole study area; (b) for peak 1 and (c)
for peak 3. Peak 1 and peak 3 represent the remarkably increased and decreased soil erosion control potential during 2005–2015, accounting for 7% and 16% of the
study area, respectively.

7
L. Wang, et al. Catena 194 (2020) 104678

Table 3 Table 4
Statistical analysis of the socio-economic variables used as correlates with Summary of the PLSR models that evaluated the relationships between socio-
changes in soil erosion control potential (n = 50)†. economic variables and the positive |ΔP| and the negative |ΔP|. The most re-
levant and significant socio-economic variables for explaining the ΔP presented
Variable Minimum Maximum Mean Standard deviation
a variable importance of projection (VIP) greater than 1†.
Demographic variables: PLS regression parameters Dependent variables
POPDEN_CHG −0.01 0.27 0.07 0.05
URBPOP_GR 0.80 5.77 3.15 1.15 Positive |ΔP| Negative |ΔP|
RURPOP_GR −4.64 0.71 −1.61 1.01
TOTPOP_GR 0.03 2.96 0.68 0.47 Number of saved components 1 1
Economic variables: R2 0.37 0.28
GDP_CAP 11438.18 77176.85 32641.58 17352.56 Q2 0.25 0.23
GDP_AREA 0.03 1.38 0.16 0.22
GDP_GR 8.72 15.25 11.73 1.52 VIP
AGR_GR 4.91 12.09 8.81 1.60 Demographic variables:
AGR_CAP 834.31 5583.99 2417.77 924.06 POPDEN_CHG <1 <1
Cultivation variables: URBPOP_GR 1.31 (−) 1.31 (+)
SOW_RATIO 0.10 0.72 0.30 0.13 RURPOP_GR 1.71 (+) <1
SOW_GR −6.81 11.40 −0.05 2.45 TOTPOP_GR <1 <1
GRA_AREA 449.85 700.95 565.73 53.86 Economic variables:
GRA_GR −7.97 3.54 −0.40 2.32 GDP_CAP <1 1.57 (−)
Policy variables: GDP_AREA <1 1.16 (−)
GOV_AREA 2746.35 34194.71 13990.30 8051.81 GDP_GR <1 <1
GOV_CAP 2.39 122.14 47.05 28.66 AGR_ GR <1 <1
AGR_ CAP 1.10 (+) <1
†
Abbreviations for the socio-economic variables are shown in Table 1. Cultivation variables:
SOW_RATIO 1.75 (−) <1
SOW_GR <1 1.12 (+)
exposure and thus the exacerbation of soil erosion (Halim et al., 2007). GRA_ AREA 1.42 (−) <1
Limited educational resources and inaccessibility to information in poor GRA_GR <1 <1
rural areas constrain farmers’ perceptions of erosion and conservation Policy variables:
GOV_AREA 1.00 (−) 1.64 (+)
(Halim et al., 2007). However, with sufficient capital input, population
GOV_CAP <1 1.78 (+)
pressure can also lead to improvements in agricultural practices and
investment in land conservation practices to alleviate the burden on †
(+ or −) refers to the trend of the standardized regression parameters.
land resources (Boserup, 1981; Deshingkar, 2012). Abbreviations for the socio-economic variables are shown in Table 1.
In contrast, urban population growth significantly reduced the po-
sitive |ΔP| and increased the negative |ΔP| (Table 4), because urban during 2005–2015 (Table 3), which is likely due to the transfer of the
people are less dependent on land and have a stronger sense of en- rural population to urban areas. Rural-to-urban migration could pro-
vironmental protection than rural people. Moreover, it is worth noting vide an opportunity to reduce rural population pressure and con-
that southern China experienced slight declines in rural populations comitant environmental degradation (Deshingkar, 2012; Li et al.,

Fig. 7. Notably increased and decreased soil erosion control potential (P) during 2005–2015 extracted from peak 1 and peak 3 based on Fig. 6. Points represent
changes in P at the pixel scale, and bars represent the area of notably increased and decreased P as a percentage of the corresponding city area.

8
L. Wang, et al.
2017), which is one of the important reasons for the negative correla-
tion between urban population growth and the positive |ΔP| (Table 4).
Rural-to-urban migration is positively associated with education levels
(Jorgenson and Burns, 2007). In southern China, people who migrate to
cities tend to be younger adults who are generally more educated than
those remaining in rural areas. Education is generally believed to im-
prove rural economies and reduce the excessive dependence on natural
resources. However, after young people receive an education, many
prefer to work in cities rather than in rural areas. Women and the el-
derly with low education levels are the main labour force in rural areas
(He et al., 2009; Chen et al., 2014). As a result, old farming methods
and minimal awareness about the protection of land resources result in
soil erosion (Ananda and Herath, 2003; Halim et al., 2007).
The mean annual GDP growth rate (GDP_GR) was 11.73% (Table 3),
indicating that southern China’s economy developed rapidly during
2005–2015. GDP_CAP and GDP_AREA were negatively correlated with
the negative |ΔP| (Table 4). This result is likely because soil erosion
mainly occurs in rural areas, while the rapid growth of GDP was mainly
occurred in urban areas (World Bank and the Development Research
Center of the State Council, P. R. China, 2014) and GDP growth in
urban areas did not mitigate the soil erosion in rural areas. However,
economic growth increases the possibility of government investment in
erosion control. Previous research has demonstrated that people in
countries that cannot afford soil conservation measures are more likely
to cause erosion (Borrelli et al., 2017). The Chinese government has
invested substantial manpower and material resources to control soil
erosion, but due to data restrictions, we calculated the government
investment in afforestation only during 2005–2015. The VIP values of
GOV_AREA and GOV_CAP were the first and second largest, respec-
tively, among the selected factors affecting ΔP (Table 4), indicating that
the impacts of government investments in afforestation on soil erosion
control were profound and robust.
Additionally, AGR_GR was positive (Table 3), and the increase in
AGR_CAP accelerated the positive |ΔP| (Table 4). Some studies have
shown that rapid urbanization has increased the demand for agri-
cultural and timber products, which motivates farmers to intensify
agriculture and convert forest or productive vegetation areas to agri-
cultural land, inducing a ‘tele-effect’ on deforestation and forest de-
gradation in rural or remote areas (Cardille and Bennett, 2010; DeFries
et al., 2010; Vu et al., 2014). However, this scenario is different from
that in southern China because the sown area of crops and the grain
output slightly declined (Table 3). Moreover, farmland abandonment is
widespread mainly because the income of farmers working in the city is
much higher than that of farming farmers, and the rotation of agri-
cultural land is heavily restricted under a collective landownership
system (Yan et al., 2016). The reason why AGR_CAP increases the po-
sitive |ΔP| is because many of the land areas that were originally used
to grow food crops are now used to grow high-profit cash crops, such as
sugar cane, which easily causes soil erosion. The positive |ΔP| was
negatively correlated with the ratio of sown area of crops to land area of
the whole district (SOW_RATIO) (Table 4), because a larger SOW_-
RATIO represents a higher multiple cropping index when it was un-
likely to expand agricultural lands. The positive |ΔP| decreased as grain
output per km2 (GRA_AREA) increased (Table 4), indicating that ad-
vances in agricultural technology will achieve synergy between in-
creasing production and protecting soil. These results emphasized that
if economic growth can provide more positive feedback to rural areas,
such as increasing farmer incomes and promoting environmentally
friendly farming methods, then it will help control soil erosion.
4.2. Future challenges for soil erosion control
Soil erosion control was effective from 2005 to 2015 (Table 2) and
was closely related to the application of many SWC measures. Assessing
the effectiveness of different SWC measures is a prerequisite for the
rational deployment of these measures. The effectiveness of SWC
9
Catena 194 (2020) 104678
measures is influenced by slope length, the hydrologic connectivity of
catchments and the time of use and the spatial distribution of SWC
measures, etc (Smets et al., 2008; Maetens et al. 2012; Poesen, 2018).
These factors need to be considered when assessing and improving the
effectiveness of SWC measures. Fig. 5 shows that regions with more
severe soil erosion had greater P, although regions with severe erosion
accounted for a small area (Table 2). The control of soil erosion in these
erosion hotspots remains a major challenge. The combination of hard
engineering approaches such as check dams and retention ponds and
soft engineering approaches such as live vegetation and brush layers
made from live plant cuttings is considered a good way to carry out
ecological restoration of erosion hotspots (Stokes et al., 2014). These
selected soil erosion control measures would reduce hydrologic con-
nectivity and trap large volumes of sediment if they are implemented at
the optimal spatial locations in a catchment, which can be an alter-
native strategy to prevent the negative effects of soil erosion (Mekonnen
et al., 2015).
Table 4 shows that socio-economic factors can significantly affect
soil erosion. Consequently, decision makers must consider both tech-
nical and socio-economic factors when conducting soil erosion control
(Fu, 2020). On the one hand, China's rapid economic development
(Table 3) will put pressure on the environment; on the other hand, it
will allow more funds to be invested in environmental governance.
Table 4 demonstrates that afforestation from the government is most
effective to reducing soil erosion, emphasizing that government deci-
sion-making is crucial for mitigating soil erosion. Previous research has
found that in comparison to poor farmers, wealthy farmers are more
willing to cooperate with the government to carry out water con-
servation measures (Ananda and Herath, 2003). However, to promote
SWC techniques, many governments in developing countries have
provided direct assistance to farmers, but the results are not satisfactory
(Ananda and Herath, 2003). Governments need to understand how to
change the behaviours and perceptions of farmers into means of
achieving public policy and subsequently how to mobilize farmers to
actively participate in SWC, rather than simply subsidizing them.
Moreover, the increasing scale of operations in agriculture with eco-
nomic growth would gain better land protection and economic benefits
than smallholder operations. The government should consider these
factors and support farmers to form a feedback process for the future
development of national policy.
5. Conclusions
In this study, we proposed a new index P to evaluate the degree of
soil erosion control. P can be used to identify areas that exceed the
tolerable soil erosion rate but have little potential for erosion control,
that is, investments in soil erosion control in these areas would prob-
ably not achieve the soil erosion alleviation goal. Moreover, we in-
vestigated the dynamic changes in the P during 2005–2015 in the hilly
red soil region of southern China and identified main socio-economic
factors influencing ΔP. The results demonstrated that soil erosion de-
clined during 2005–2015, but the 30% soil erosion rate of the study
area was still larger than the tolerable soil erosion rate (500 t km−2
yr−1 for the red soil region in southern China) and accounted for almost
85% of the total soil erosion. By using P instead of the actual soil ero-
sion, we found that the reduction in soil erosion is limited by natural
conditions, so that it would be almost impossible for 100% of the study
area to experience a soil erosion rate of less than 500 t km−2 yr−1,
which would avoid waste caused by excessive governance. We classi-
fied P into four levels: 0–0.1, 0.1–0.3, 0.3–0.6 and 0.6–1 to represent
extremely low, low, moderate and high P, respectively. More than 40%
of the study area still had a high P in 2015. Moreover, high P was
concentrated in areas with high erosion rates, indicating that the
amount of soil erosion will be greatly reduced in the severely eroded
areas if measures are appropriate.
The PLSR models explained 37% and 28% of the variations in the
L. Wang, et al.
positive and negative |ΔP|, respectively. We aimed to identify the most
relevant and significant socio-economic variables for explaining the ΔP
rather than to predict ΔP. URBPOP_GR, RURPOP_GR, AGR_CAP,
SOW_RATIO, GRA_AREA and GOV_AREA affected the positive |ΔP|
significantly, while URBPOP_GR, GDP_CAP, GDP_AREA, SOW_GR,
GOV_AREA and GOV_CAP affected the negative |ΔP| significantly
(VIP > 1). The positive |ΔP| decreased as urban population grew while
increased as rural population grew. Economic growth was negatively
correlated with the negative |ΔP|, but it will also promote the gov-
ernment to increase investment in soil erosion control. The govern-
ment’s afforestation input was the most effective in inhibiting soil
erosion according to the large VIP value (VIP for GOV_AREA was 1.64
and VIP for GOV_CAP was 1.78). The positive |ΔP| was negatively re-
lated to grain output per km2, indicating that the improvement of
farming technology can achieve a win-win situation in increasing pro-
duction and soil protection. Therefore, we suggest that decision makers
need to deliberate the impact on soil erosion from a technical per-
spective and a socio-ecological perspective. Furthermore, governments
need to know more about the farmers’ behaviours and perceptions, and
accordingly mobilize them to actively participate in soil erosion con-
trol.
Declaration of Competing Interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influ-
ence the work reported in this paper.
Acknowledgements
This work was supported by the National Key Research and
Development Program of China [2017YFC0505406], the National
Natural Science Foundation of China [41701314] and the Key R & D
Program of Science and Technology in Guangxi [Guike AA17204078].
Appendix A. Supplementary material
Supplementary data to this article can be found online at https://
doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2020.104678.
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