Sustainable Cities and Society 64 (2021) 102542

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Sustainable Cities and Society

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/scs

Prediction of seasonal urban thermal field variance index using machine

learning algorithms in Cumilla, Bangladesh
Abdulla - Al Kafy a, b, *, Abdullah-Al-Faisal a, c, Md. Shahinoor Rahman d, Muhaiminul Islam a,
Abdullah Al Rakib a, Md. Arshadul Islam a, Md. Hasib Hasan Khan a, Md. Soumik Sikdar e,
Md. Hasnan Sakin Sarker a, Jannatul Mawa a, Golam Shabbir Sattar f
a
Department of Urban & Regional Planning, Rajshahi University of Engineering & Technology (RUET), Rajshahi, 6204, Bangladesh
b
ICLEI – Local Governments for Sustainability, South Asia, Dhaka, Bangladesh
c
GIS Unit, Operational Centre Amsterdam (OCA), Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), Cox’s Bazar, 4750, Bangladesh
d
Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, New Jersey City University, Jersey City, NJ, 07305, USA
e
Department of Urban & Regional Planning, Chittagong University of Engineering & Technology (CUET), Chittagong, 4349, Bangladesh
f
Institute of Environmental Science (IES), University of Rajshahi, Rajshahi, 6205. Bangladesh

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: The intensity and formation of urban heat island (UHI) phenomena are closely related to land use/land cover
Urban heat island (LULC) and land surface temperature (LST) change. The effect of UHI can be described quantitatively by urban
Land cover change thermal field variance index (UTFVI). For measuring urban health and ensuring sustainable development, the
Urban field variance index
analysis of LST and UTFVI are receiving boosted attention. This study predicted LULC, seasonal (summer &
Artificial neural network
winter) LST, and UTFVI variations using machine learning algorithms (MLAs) in Cumilla City Corporation (CCC),
Cellular automata
Bangladesh. Landsat 4–5 TM and Landsat 8 OLI satellite images were used for 1999, 2009, and 2019 to predict
future scenarios for 2029 and 2039. MLAs such as Cellular Automata (CA) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN)
methods were used to predict the future change in LULC, LST, and UTFVI. The result suggests that, in the year
2029 and 2039, the urban area will likely to be increased by around 8 % and 11 %, where significant decrease
will be taken place in green cover by 9 % and 14 %. If the rapid urban growth continues, more than 30 % of the
CCC area will likely to be experienced more than 33 ◦ C temperature and strongest UTFVI effect in the year 2029
and 2039. In addition, an average 4 ◦ C higher LST was recorded in the urban area compared with vegetation
cover. In urban construction practice, avoiding concentrated impermeable layers (built-up areas) and increasing
green covers, are effective ways of mitigating the effect of UTFVI. This study will contribute in achieving sus­
tainable development and provide useful insights to understand the complex relationship among different ele­
ments of urban environments and promotion of city competence.

1. Introduction and increase city competitiveness. It also has significant consequences,

Climate is among the most critical environmental factors impacting
not only our ecosystems but also the day-to-day activities (Hunt et al.,
2017). Changes in urban land use/land cover (LULC) accelerate climate
change because of its role in reducing biodiversity and creating the
urban heat island (UHI) effect in cities. Urbanization and industrial
development are causing widespread LULC changes with the con­
struction of specialized infrastructures (Tang, Di, Rahman, & Yu, 2019;
Rahman, Mohiuddin, Kafy, Sheel, & Di, 2019). Besides, this boost up the
economic development accelerates construction of urban infrastructure
such as an increase in air pollution, reducing natural resources,
hampering urban biodiversity and accelerates the UHI effect. Land
surface temperature (LST) is receiving increasing attention as a measure
of urban health and sustainable development. LST is associated with
LULC changes, seasonal variations, climate change, and global warming
(Huang, Huang, Yang, Fang, & Liang, 2019). Any significant conversion
of vegetation area, water bodies to the impervious layer influences the
LST variation. As the urban environment consists of a more impervious
layer, higher LST is recorded in city areas, which dramatically con­
tributes to UHI’s formation and reduces environmental sustainability of

* Corresponding author at: ICLEI South Asia, Rajshahi City Corporation, Rajshahi, 6000, Bangladesh.
E-mail address: abdulla-al.kafy@localpathways.org (A.A. Kafy).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2020.102542
Received 6 June 2020; Received in revised form 6 September 2020; Accepted 6 October 2020
Available online 15 October 2020
2210-6707/© 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
A.A. Kafy et al.
Fig. 1. Location map of the study area a) In Bangladesh and Cumilla District b) Cumilla City Corporation.
the cities (Huang et al., 2019).
Traditional cities may fail to improve land utilization, which create
urban sprawl compared to planned cities. There are numerous planned
cities around the world, but most cities in Bangladesh are unplanned
with small administrative areas and densely populated. Like other
developing countries, Bangladesh has been experiencing rapid popu­
lation increase (Van Schendel, 2020; Rahman et al., 2019). Rapid
growth in population may have positive influences on economic
development but create negative impacts on LULC change and sus­
tainable development. The LULC composition in each city are different
based on city characteristics, planning strategies and time periods.
Cumilla, like other cities in Bangladesh, has been experiencing the
consequences of rapid population change. Unplanned cities like
Cumilla, which do not have organized towering buildings, complete
infrastructure and orderly streets, have started to lose their city image
and competitiveness. These disadvantages accelerate the UHI phe­
nomenon due to unplanned development, the concentration of infra­
structure expansion in the central area and insufficient green space
and water bodies. According to the previous studies in Rajshahi,
Bangladesh, unplanned infrastructural development and green cover
reduction in the city area significantly increase the LST (Kafy, Rah­
man, Faisal, Hasan, & Islam, 2020). Effective LULC management plan
by restricting unplanned urban development and by increasing green
cover is currently one of the most significant challenging approaches
to mitigate the UHI effects.
The urban thermal field variance index (UTFVI) is widely used to
describe the UHI effect (Tomlinson, Chapman, Thornes, & Baker, 2011).
The concentration of UTFVI is more in the urban areas due to human
activities and substantially warmer than its surroundings neighbouring
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Sustainable Cities and Society 64 (2021) 102542
rural areas (Wang, Zhang, Tsou, & Li, 2017). UTFVI significantly causes
negative impacts on the local wind patterns, humidity, air quality, in­
direct economic loss, reduce comfort and increase mortality rate (Sejati,
Buchori, & Rudiarto, 2019). The excessive heat produced by the UTFVI
results in a higher upward motion, leading to increased shower and
thunderstorm activities (Singh et al., 2017). The UHI is responsible for
producing pollutants like ozone which causes degradation in air and
water quality (Lai & Cheng, 2010). Predicting the effects of future UTFVI
can be an effective approach to identify the possible heat wave zones
and help city officials to develop strategies for mitigating UHI effect and
ensuring a sustainable environment.
Several factors influence LST to trigger the UHI as well as UTFVI
phenomena, such as heatwaves, psychometry, modification of earth
surfaces, and illumination intensity. LULC change performs as a signif­
icant predominant contributing factor to the UHI effect. The changes in
the proportion of LULC types is the most influential factor affecting LST.
Predicting future LULC changes and assessing the relationship with LST
can effectively prevent the increasing trend of UHI and UTFVI phe­
nomenon. LULC prediction studies can project future scenarios and help
ensure environmental projection based on socio-economic development
(Kafy et al., 2020). Various simulation studies for identifying the rela­
tionship between LULC and LST change have been performed by many
researchers, which helped cities to develop future sustainable develop­
ment strategies. A variety of spatially explicit models such as Cellular
Automata (CA) (Balogun & Ishola, 2017; Losiri, Nagai, Ninsawat, &
Shrestha, 2016) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) (Shatnawi & Abu
Qdais, 2019) have demonstrated successful prediction results by inte­
grating Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic Information System (GIS)
techniques.
A.A. Kafy et al.
Table 1
Description of the collected seasonal satellite image from USGS Earth Explorer.
Respective Year Season Date Acquired Sensor Path/Row
Summer March 21, 1999 137/44
1999 TM
Winter November 09, 1999 136/44
Summer April 10, 2009 136/44
2009 TM
Winter October 26, 2009 137/44
Summer March 28, 2019 137/44
2019 OLI
Winter November 23, 2019 137/44
Although prediction of the future LULC and LST scenarios are con­
ventional approaches, prediction studies for seasonal (summer and
winter) UTFVI influenced by LULC change is an entirely new concept in
RS perspective. The novelty of this study is to predict seasonal UTFVI
variations and investigate,
• spatial and temporal trends of LULC change, seasonal LST and UTFVI
variations, and LST and UTFVI distribution over LULC categories
using Landsat satellite images for Cumilla City Corporation (CCC)
area over the past two decades (1999, 2009 & 2019) and
• predict future changes in LULC, LST, and UTFVI using CA and ANN
algorithms for the years 2029 and 2039.
2. Study area
CCC is considered for this study, which is one of the most influential
city-centers in the Chittagong division of eastern Bangladesh. This area
is located along the Dhaka-Chittagong highway which is one of the
busiest highways of Bangladesh. The coordinate of this area falls be­
tween 22˚0’0" N to 26˚0’0” N latitude and longitude 88˚0’0” E to 92˚0’00”
E, covering an area of approximately 46 km2 (Fig. 1). It serves as the
administrative center of the Cumilla District. Formerly, CCC was under
the municipality of Cumilla until the local government ministry upgra­
ded the body to CCC on 10 July 2011 (BBS, 2013; Kafy & Ferdous,
2018). It consists of 27 wards of Cumilla Adarsha Sadar Paurashava and
Cumilla Sadar Dakshin Paurashava. The CCC population is approxi­
mately 339133, having a density of 1712 per km2 with an increasing rate
of 1.58 % (BBS, 2013). Being a district center, a considerable amount of
migration took place in the city due to job opportunities and provision of
better standard of living are the major reasons behind the population
growth of this area.
After being promoted to city corporation, that areas to the west,
south-west and east, have been transformed into urban and semi-urban
environments from their rural settings. The transformation of the west,
southwest and east from rural setting to semi-urban environments af­
fects the administrative change of the area, which is the promotion into
city corporation (Kafy, Faisal, Sikdar, Hasan, & Ahmmed, 2019; Mou,
2019). This particular area also faces haphazard growth and is shown
minimal regard to preserve a sustainable ecosystem (Mou, 2019). Ac­
cording to Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD), this city’s
annual average temperature varies between maximum of 34.3 ◦ C and
minimum of 12.7 ◦ C with a recorded average rainfall of 2551 mm
(Hossain et al., 2020; Ishaque et al., 2020). Bangladesh is used to known
as a country of six seasons. However, due to climate change, only three
seasons are noticeable nowadays, each having its distinct characteris­
tics. These include (1) Winter (October-January) with lower tempera­
tures (2) Rainy (July-September) with minimal to heavy rainfall,
moderate temperatures, and evaporation (3) Summer season (February
to June) with high temperature (Carrico & Donato, 2019; Kafy, Islam,
Khan, Ferdous, & Hossain, 2019; Rimi et al., 2019).
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Sustainable Cities and Society 64 (2021) 102542
Multi-spectral band resolution Thermal Band resolution Cloud Cover
120 m (resampled to 30 m)
30 m 120 m (resampled to 30 m) <10 %
100 m (resampled to 30 m)
3. Materials and method
Three Multi-spectral Landsat 4–5 TM and Landsat 8 OLI satellite data
were acquired for the year 1999, 2009 and 2019 from the United States
Geological Survey (USGS) to explore the LULC and LST change and its
effect on UTFVI in the study area. In every summer and winter seasons,
satellite images were downloaded within the maximum one-month in­
terval to eliminate the seasonal variability. During the downloading
stage, the cloud cover was set to less than 10 percent for all images to
have a consistent weather background and not affected by significant
temperature or humidity changes. Although cloud cover was set at < 10
% for all Landsat scenes, over the studied region, it was close to zero. As
satellite images from Landsat are free of radiometric and geometrical
distortions, therefore, no further geo-correction or image-by-image
processing was carried out. USGS also resampled and provided 30 m
data for all Landsat thermal bands to fit the multispectral sensor bands
(NASA, 2017). Table 1 summarizes information about the images ob­
tained from the online data directory of the USGS.
3.1. Classification of LULC images
The images acquired from satellite archive were categorized into
four specific LULC groups such as i) urban area (industrial area, resi­
dential, commercial and transportation network); (b) vegetation land
(green lands, agricultural lands, and other green vegetations); (c) water
body (coastal rivers, reservoirs, canals, and streams) and (d) bare land
(fallow soil, sand, and vacant land) for the year 1999, 2009, and 2019
based on the SVM algorithm in ENVI 5.3 software. In SVM, radial basis
function was used as kernel type; gamma in kernel function was set up as
0.07; penalty parameter was set up as 120.00; pyramid level was set up
by default which was equal to zero and classification probability
threshold was set up as 0.05. The images were analyzed based on their
spectral and areal profiles to establish additional training information
and background data from multiple secondary sources.
Around 45 samples were collected for each LULC class to generate
LULC maps. Each map’s accuracy was assessed by randomly collected
200 ground data and 150 data from Google Earth images. Four different
types of accuracy assessments were conducted to calculate image
calculation accuracy, including overall accuracy, user accuracy, pro­
ducer accuracy, and kappa statistics (Congalton & Green, 2008; Foody,
2002; Pontius & Millones, 2011).
3.2. Estimation of seasonal LST
After geometrical and radiographic correction of the thermal bands,
Landsat images were used to extract seasonal LST for 1999, 2009 and
2019. Landsat sensors gather thermal data and store them as digital
numbers (DNs). In this study, three and seven-step process were used for
Landsat 5 and Landsat 8 OLI respectively to transform available DNs into
LST.
A.A. Kafy et al. Sustainable Cities and Society 64 (2021) 102542

3.2.1. LST estimation from Landsat 5 images

NDVI − NDVImin 2
Step 1 PV = ( ) (9)
NDVImax − NDVImin
Band 6 DNs were converted to radiation luminance (RTM6) by Eqs.
(1)–(3) (Kumar, Bhaskar, & Padmakumari, 2012): Step 5
After calculating the PV, the Land Surface Emissivity (LSE) was
V
RTM6 = (Rmax − Rmin ) + Rmin (1) calculated by Eq. (10) (Avdan & Jovanovska, 2016; Roy et al., 2014):
255
Where, V represents DN of band 6, and LSE = 0.004 × PV + 0.986 (10)
Step 6
Rmax = 1.896 (mW × cm− 2
× sr-1) (2)
LST was calculated in degree Celsius both for band 10 and band 11
Rmin = 0.1534 (mW × cm− 2
× sr-1) (3) using the by Eq. (11) and (12) (Avdan & Jovanovska, 2016; Roy et al.,
2014; Yu et al., 2014):
Step 2
The RTM6 was converted to LST in Kelvin by Eq. (4): LST =
BT
(11)
{1 + [λBT/ρ]ln(LSE) }
K1
Tk = ⎛ ⎞ (4)
Where λ is the wavelength of emitted radiance and ρ was calculated as
⎜ K2 ⎟
Ln ⎝RTM6 + 1⎠ (Eq. (12)):
/b
c
ρ = h = 1.438 × 10− 2 mk (12)
σ
− 2 -1
Where, K1 (constant) = 1260.56 K and K2 = 607.66 (mW × cm × sr
μm-1); b (spectral range) = 1.239 (μm). Where σ (Boltzmann constant) = 1.38 × 10− 23 J/K,
− 34
Step 3 ih i(Planck’s constant) = 6.626 × 10 J s, and c (velocity of light) =
After deriving the LST in Kelvin unit, it was converted to degree 2.998 × 108 m/s (Roy et al., 2014; Scarano & Sobrino, 2015).
Celsius from Eq. (5): Step 7
A combined average of LST of Band 10 and Band 11 was obtained
T0C = Tk − 273 (5)
from equation (11) using cell statistics in ArcGIS V10.5 software which
was ended to the ultimate LST for Landsat 8 images.
3.2.2. LST estimation from Landsat 8 images
Step 1 3.3. Estimation of seasonal UHI and UTFVI
Landsat-8 thermal infrared sensor (TIRS) band 10 and 11 and OLI
sensor of band 2–5 individually were used to transform the raw image The atmospheric condition may vary in the same year; thus, to
into a spectral radiance (SR) image by Eq. (6) (Rasul, Balzter, & Smith, evaluate an area’s urban health and thermal characteristics, it is not
2015; Rozenstein, Qin, Derimian, & Karnieli, 2014; Scarano & Sobrino, appropriate to compare multiple images from the same year. Therefore,
2015). to show the scenarios of UHI in different seasons of the same year, a
( ) normalized method was used using Eq. (13) (Abutaleb et al., 2015)
Lmax − Lmin
L = × Band + Lmin (6)
DNmax Ts − Tm
UHI = (13)
SD
Where,
L = Atmospheric SR in watts/(m2 × srad × μm) Here, Ts stands for LST, Tm for the mean of the LST of the study area, and
Lmax = Maximum SR of respective Band Lmin = Minimum SR of SD for the standard deviation.
respective Band DNmax = Qcal max – Qcal min = maximum and minimum To describe the effect of UHI, UTFVI was used. LST images and mean
difference of sensor calibration LST values were used to estimate the seasonal LST using Eq. (14) (Liu &
Step 2 Zhang, 2011). The estimated UTFVI values were divided into six cate­
Using the thermal constants from the metadata file, the TIRS band gories (None, weak, medium, strong, stronger, and strongest) to describe
data was converted from SR to BT once the DNs were converted to SR. the urban health and heat distribution in the study area (Liu & Zhang,
Eq. (7) was used to convert reflectance to BT (Gutman, Huang, Chander, 2011).
Noojipady, & Masek, 2013; NASA, 2017).
Ts − Tm
UTFVI = (14)
K2 Ts
BT = − 273.15 (7)
Ln i(KLλ1 + 1)
3.4. Prediction process of LULC maps
Where, K2 and K1 represents the band-specific thermal conversion
constants, BT = Brightness temperature in Celsius. The CA model was used for prediction of future LULC changes using
Step 3 MOLUSCE (Modules for Land Use Change Evaluation) plugin in open-
The calculation of NDVI is an essential factor in estimating the LST source QGIS 3.1 software. The CA model encompasses both static and
for Landsat 8 images (Roy et al., 2014; Weng, Lu, & Schubring, 2004). dynamic aspects of LULC transformation at a high degree of precision
Thus, Eq. (8) was used for calculating NDVI. and widely used by researchers for LULC prediction (Kafy et al., 2020;
Mansour, Al-Belushi, & Al-Awadhi, 2020; Santé, García, Miranda, &
NIR (Band 5) − R (Band 4)
NDVI = (8) Crecente, 2010; Ullah, Ahmad et al., 2019, 2019b).
NIR (Band 5) + R (Band 4)

Where, the Range: -1 < NDVI < + 1. 3.4.1. Prediction in MOLUSCE Plugin
Step 4 MOLUSCE is designed to analyse, model and simulate LULC changes
Using the minimum and maximum NDVI value, the Proportion of by incorporating well-known algorithms such as CA, ANN, Logistic
Vegetation (PV) was estimated by Eq. (9) (Roy et al., 2014; Yu, Guo, & Regression (LR), Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) and Weights of Evi­
Wu, 2014): dence (WoE). MOLUSCE user interface offers an easy-to-use interface
with specific modules and functions. The plugin consists of several steps

4
A.A. Kafy et al.
Fig. 2. Testing performance of a) ANN b) ResNet c) GoogLeNet d) VGGNet and e) AlexNet for estimated and measured LST in 2019.
starting from the input module, area change analysis, modelling
methods, simulation, and validation. For this study, independent var­
iables (LULC maps) and dependent variables such as elevation, slope,
distance from roads, commercial space, educational institutions, and
water bodies were loaded in the input module. For predicting 2029 and
2039 LULC maps, LULC maps for years 1999 & 2009 and 2009 & 2019
were used. The area change analysis computes LULC changes between
two time periods and produced transition matrices and LULC change
maps. In the modelling methods stage, the ANN model was used for
predicting LULC change transition potential, where maximum iteration
was set to 500. Neighborhood pixel was set to 9 (3 × 3) cells to define
maximum iteration and neighborhood pixel for the model. The simu­
lation stage displays potential transition maps, certainty function
(experimental), and prediction results for years 2029 and 2039.
Simulated (predicted) LULC maps were produced based on CA model­
ling approach.
To validate the accuracy of predicted LULC maps, kappa statistics (%
of correctness, standard kappa, kappa histogram and kappa location)
were produced in the validation stage. For increasing the prediction
maps’ acceptancy, validation was also performed in IDRISI Selva soft­
ware by computing kappa statistics.
3.5. Prediction process of seasonal LST and UTFVI
Feed-forward Neural Network (FFNN), Radial basis function Neural
Network (RBFNN), Kohonen Self Organizing Neural Network, Recurrent
Neural Network (RNN), Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and
Modular Neural Network (MNN) are six commonly used methods in
machine learning. To predict the future scenarios of LST and UTFVI for
2029 and 2039, five algorithms, such as ANN, Residual Neural Network
(ResNet), GoogLeNet, VGGNet, and AlexNet were performed in MAT­
LAB software. These algorithms were extensively used by researchers in
image processing and prediction studies (Hittawe et al., 2019; Qiu,
Schmitt, Mou, Ghamisi, & Zhu, 2018; Shatnawi & Abu Qdais, 2019; Su,
Piao, Luo, & Yan, 2018).
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Sustainable Cities and Society 64 (2021) 102542
3.5.1. Performance evaluation of the algorithms
For performance evaluation of the algorithms, two statistical
matrics, namely Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Correlation Co­
efficient (R), were considered by comparing predicted and measured
LST for the year 2019 mentioned in Eqs. (15) and (16).
√̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅
∑
[Tobs − Tmodel ]2
RMSE = (15)
n
⎡ ⎤
∑
(T − T ) (T − T )
⎢ obs obs
R = ⎣√̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅
model model
√̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅
⎥
⎦ (16)
∑ ∑
(Tobs − Tobs )2 (Tmodel − Tmodel )2
RMSE and R are the widely used metrics for measuring model per­
formance in geosciences (Sekertekin, Arslan, & Bilgili, 2020). The
minimum value of RMSE close to zero represents the best performance.
R-value ranges from -1 to +1, where +1 represents perfect positive
correlation, while -1 shows perfect negative correlation, and 0 repre­
sents no relationship between observed and predicted variables. In this
study, the ANN demonstrated excellent results with 0.53 and 0.87 for
RMSE and R, respectively, where AlexNet showed 0.69 and 0.81 (Fig. 2).
Based on the performance of the algorithms, ANN was used for pre­
dicting seasonal LST and UTFVI. ANN is a Multi-layer perceptron (MLP)
feed-forward networks, commonly preferred in environmental applica­
tions (Maduako, Yun, & Patrick, 2016; Shatnawi & Abu Qdais, 2019).
The detailed description of the ANN model is described in Sections
3.5.2–3.5.4.
3.5.2. ANN prediction model
Before running the ANN model, the study area was divided into
500 m x 500 m spatial grids in QGIS software for generating the sample
point. This grid size has been chosen in considering the minimum space
at which one-point features can affect a significant change in the LST
and UTFVI (Lee & Jung, 2014). The mean LST and UTFVI pixel values of
these 500 m square spatial units and the centroid coordinates (longitude
and latitude) generated in QGIS software were one of the input pa­
rameters in ANN model. For seasonal LST prediction, a sequence of past
A.A. Kafy et al. Sustainable Cities and Society 64 (2021) 102542

Fig. 3. Three-layered ANN model Architecture for seasonal LST prediction.

Fig. 4. Three-layered ANN model Architecture for seasonal UTFVI prediction.

years LST, LULC maps, NDBI, NDBSI images at an interval of 10 and 20
years, latitude and longitude were supplied to the ANN model as an
input parameter to identify the hidden patterns within the datasets and
produce the prediction by moving along the time series data (Maduako
et al., 2016; Van Gerven & Bohte, 2017). The same process was followed
to predict the seasonal UTFVI with 10 and 20 years interval data of LST,
UHI, LULC, NDBI, NDBSI, latitude, and longitude act as the inputs pa­
rameters. The seasonal LST and UTFVI predicted output for the next 10
(t + 10) and 20 (t + 20) years, are shown mathematically in following
Eqs. (17)–(20).

6
A.A. Kafy et al.
Fig. 5. LULC classification of the study area using the SVM algorithm.
LST (t + 10) = f [LST(t), LST(t-10), LULC(t), LULC(t-10), NDBI(t), NDBI(t-
10), NDBSI(t), NDBSI (t-10)] (17)
where t = 2019
LST (t + 20) = f [LST(t), LST(t-20), LULC(t), LULC(t-20), NDBI(t), NDBI(t-
20), NDBSI(t), NDBSI (t-20)] (18)
where t = 2019
UTFVI (t + 10) = f [LST(t), LST(t-10), UHI(t), UHI(t-10), LULC(t), LULC(t-
10), NDBI(t), NDBI(t-10), NDBSI(t), NDBSI (t-10)] (19)
where t = 2019
UTFVI (t + 20) = f [LST(t), LST(t-20), UHI(t), UHI(t-20), LULC(t), LULC(t-
20), NDBI(t), NDBI(t-20), NDBSI(t), NDBSI (t-20)] (20)
where t = 2019
3.5.3. Choosing the number of hidden layers and neurons
The higher number of hidden layers and neurons are important
because they affect the simulation outcomes by allowing the network to
manifest nonlinear behavior (Lee & Jung, 2014; Maduako et al., 2016).
Many hidden layers and neurons affect the network’s ability to under­
stand the datasets and produce correct learning and prediction
(Maduako et al., 2016).
After a few trials, 6 and 8 hidden layers (Figs. 3 and 4) for seasonal
LST and UTFVI prediction were generated, with 1-3n hidden neurons in
each layer. Here 3 is the number of time series layers at 10 years interval,
and n is 8 (LST) and 10 (UTFVI), respectively, based on the input layers
used in Eqs. (17)–(20).
3.5.4. Choice of the initial weights (w), learning rate (μ) and decay rate (β)
For this study, the first random feed-forward vectors were set at the
same condition (weight). As ANN structure is consisted of three-layered,
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Sustainable Cities and Society 64 (2021) 102542
such as i (input layer), j (hidden layer) and k (output layer) layers, with
weights Wij and Wjk (Figs. 3 and 4). In the structure of ANNs, each
neuron has an adjustable weight factor (w) and bias (b). In the layers j
and k, each neuron receives the x input value calculated by the weighted
sum of the outputs from the previous layer (Sekertekin et al., 2020).
For example, y in the second layer j can be calculated using Eq. (21)
as follows (Bilgili, 2011; Maduako et al., 2016):
∑
I
ypj = Wij Opi + θj (21)
i=1
Where θj is the bias for neuron j, Opi is the ith output of the previous
layer, Wij is the weights between the first and second layers. The y value
is passed through a nonlinear activation function and an output f(y) is
obtained from each neuron in the second and third layers. The
commonly used activation function (logistic function) is expressed as in
Eq. (22) (Bilgili, 2012; Sekertekin et al., 2020)
1
f (y) = (22)
1 + e− y
One of the critical parameters in the ANN model is the learning rate
(μ), which controls the number of steps that need to be taken in multi­
dimensional weight space as each weight is adjusted (Maduako et al.,
2016). The too-large μ may be skipped the local minima consistently,
which results in fluctuations and slow convergence of the minimum
error point. Additionally, if the μ is too slow, the number of iterations
will be too large to reach the local minima (Bilgili, 2011; Kumar, Gupta,
Mishra, & Prasad, 2015; Van Gerven & Bohte, 2017). By considering
these issues, for this study, the initial μ was set to 0.1, and the decay rate
(β) was used to control it. The β ranges from 0 to 1 (0 < β < 1). The β of
0.9 was used to update the μ. If the error function between the present
and previous iteration decreases, the β updates the μ by multiplication.
At the same time, it divides when the error function is on the increase to
reduce the μ.
A.A. Kafy et al. Sustainable Cities and Society 64 (2021) 102542

Table 2 accuracy demonstrated excellent results with 86.04 %, 84.82 %, and

Changes in LULC classes from 1999 to 2019. 87.23 % for 1999, 2009, and 2019 respectively.
Area in Km2 Net Changes (%) From 1999 to 2019, two transition trends were apparent; first, a
LULC Classes notable expansion in urban areas and second, a remarkable decline in
1999 2009 2019 1999–2009
vegetation and water body area. The findings revealed a notable
Water Body 1.59 1.40 0.60 − 0.60 expansion in the urban area by replacing the vegetation, bare land,
Urban Area 20.45 22.10 26.31 2.48
Vegetation 19.69 16.82 12.95 − 2.41
and water body areas.
Bare Land 3.52 4.92 5.39 0.95 The changes in LULC classes are mentioned in Table 2. From 1999 to
2019, the urban and bare land area were increased from 20.45 km2
(45.19 %) and 3.52 km2 (7.78 %) to 26.31 km2 (58.14 %) and 5.39 km2
4. Result and discussion (12.48 %) respectively. A remarkable decrease was also noticeable in
vegetation and water bodies from 19.69 km2 (43.51 %) and 1.59 km2
As per methodology (in Section 3), the multi-year LULC pattern, LST, (3.52 %) to 12.95 km2 (28.08 %) and 0.60 km2 (1.34 %) in 1999 and
and UTFVI distribution with the prediction of future LULC, LST and 2019 respectively. In 20 years time period, the highest positive net
UTFVI distribution were calculated for the study area. Results are pre­ change was noticed in the urban area (2.48 %), with a negative change
sented in the following subsections. in vegetation area (− 2.41 %).
Several factors may contribute to such changes, like massive urban
4.1. Mapping LULC change development, the unplanned expansion of urban population, and rural-
urban migration to enjoy a better living standard. The fundamental
LULC classification maps for the years of 1999, 2009, and 2019 were assumption was that both strategic and economic influences are related
estimated and classified at 10 years interval period from the Landsat to a notable expansion in the urban area and the declintion in natural
data using the SVM algorithm (Fig. 5). The overall classification resources, i.e., vegetation cover and water bodies (Fu & Weng, 2018;

Fig. 6. Summer season LST variation in the study area.

Table 3
Range wise summer season LST distribution in the study area from 1999 to 2019.
Summer season LST range in ◦ C

<21 21–<25 25–<29 29–<33 ≥ 33

Year
Area Area Area Area Area Area Area Area Area Area
(Km2) (%) (Km2) (%) (Km2) (%) (Km2) (%) (Km2) (%)

1999 14.67 32.42 16.45 36.35 12.23 27.03 1.71 3.78 0.20 0.43
2009 0 0 0 0 29.47 65.14 13.89 30.48 1.89 4.38
2019 0 0 0 0 22.57 54.30 19.64 40.41 3.04 5.29

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A.A. Kafy et al. Sustainable Cities and Society 64 (2021) 102542

Fig. 7. Winter season LST variation in the study area.

Table 4
Range wise winter season LST distribution in the study area from 1999 to 2019.
Winter season LST range in ◦ C

<21 21–<25 25–<29 29–<33 ≥ 33

Year
Area Area Area Area Area Area Area Area Area Area
(Km2) (%) (Km2) (%) (Km2) (%) (Km2) (%) (Km2) (%)

1999 7.22 15.96 30.24 66.84 7.79 17.22 0 0 0 0

2009 7.25 16.02 26.74 59.10 11.26 24.89 0 0 0 0
2019 0 0 17.93 39.63 16.44 36.34 10.88 24.06 0 0

Weng, 2001; Weng et al., 2004). The unplanned expansion of urban
areas and reduction in vegetation cover hamper the city’s environmental
health and sustainability.
4.2. Seasonal LST variation
The up to date meteorological data for seasonal temperature varia­
tion on specific urban environments is challenging to achieve because
the number of weather stations are limited in different geographical
locations. For those scenarios, satellite data and RS applications
contribute to reliable LST estimation on both micro and macro scale
(Southworth, 2004).
Areal distribution of LST patterns in summer seasons was estimated
from Landsat thermal bands from 1999 to 2019 (Fig. 6). The color tone
greenish to radish indicates lower to higher temperatures of the study
area for all the years. In 1999, higher temperature was noticed in the city
center, which was expanded outside the central part of the city from
2009 to 2019. The maximum temperature in summer 1999 was 34.83 ◦ C
and increased to 38.40 ◦ C in 2019. The minimum temperature was
20.38 ◦ C in summer 1999 and increased to 26.91 ◦ C in 2019.
LST areal distribution during the summer season (1999, 2009, &
2019) in five different temperature zones have shown in Table 3. The
result revealed that in summer 1999, most of the study area was covered
by three different temperature zones (<21 ◦ C, 21 ◦ C - <25 ◦ C, and 25 ◦ C -
<29 ◦ C). Only 0.43 % (0.2 km2) area was recorded in the highest tem­
perature zone (≥ 33 ◦ C) during the summer of 1999. Meanwhile, in
summer 2009 and 2019, no area was recorded in the zone of <21 ◦ C to
<25 ◦ C. Hence, 65.14 % (29.47 km2) and 30.48 % (13.89 km2) area
were recorded in the zone of 25 ̊ ◦ C - <29 ◦ C and 29 ◦ C- <33 ◦ C in year
2009, where 54.30 % (22.57 km2) and 40.41 % (19.64 km2) in year
2019. The highest temperature zone (≥ 33 ◦ C) was recorded as 4.38 %
(1.89 km2) and 5.29 % (5.29 km2) for the year 2009 and 2019, respec­
tively. The estimated result showed that lower temperature was recor­
ded in 1999 and converted into a higher temperature zone during
2009–2019 in the study area.
LST distribution maps in the winter season for years 1999, 2009, and
2019 are also demonstrated in Fig. 7. The maximum temperature of the
study area in winter 1999 was 21.54 ◦ C and 32.24 ◦ C in 2019. The
minimum temperature recorded in winter 1999 and 2019 were 17.18 ◦ C
and 22.96 ◦ C, respectively.
The distribution of winter LST in different temperature zones during
the years 1999, 2009, and 2019 are shown in Table 4. From year 1999 to
2019, no area was recorded in the highest temperature zone (≥ 33 ◦ C).
The highest temperature was recorded in the range of 29 ◦ C to <33 ◦ C in

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A.A. Kafy et al. Sustainable Cities and Society 64 (2021) 102542

Table 5
Cross-linkage of summer season LST variation over different LULC classes from 1999 to 2019
LST range in ◦ C

LULC <21 21–<25 25–<29 29–<33 ≥ 33

Area (Km2) Area (%) Area (Km2) Area (%) Area (Km2) Area (%) Area (Km2) Area (%) Area (Km2) Area (%)

1999 Summer Season

Water Body 0.07 0.16 0.86 1.90 0.65 1.44 0.01 0.01 0 0
Urban Area 0.64 1.41 9.59 21.19 9.47 20.94 0.74 1.64 0.01 0.01
Vegetation 13.95 30.83 5.54 12.24 0.20 0.44 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Bare Land 0.01 0.01 0.46 1.02 1.91 4.21 0.96 2.12 0.19 0.42
2009 Summer Season
Water Body 0 0 0 0 0.76 1.68 0.60 1.33 0.03 0.06
Urban Area 0 0 0 0 10.79 23.85 9.14 20.20 2.18 4.81
Vegetation 0 0 0 0 16.55 36.58 0.27 0.59 0.00 0.00
Bare Land 0 0 0 0 1.37 3.03 2.87 6.35 0.68 1.50
2019 Summer Season
Water Body 0 0 0 0 0.85 1.88 0.66 1.45 0 0
Urban Area 0 0 0 0 8.17 18.05 16.68 36.87 1.02 2.25
Vegetation 0 0 0 0 15.10 33.38 0.56 1.23 0 0
Bare Land 0 0 0 0 0.45 0.99 1.74 3.85 0.02 0.04

Table 6
Cross-linkage of winter season LST variation over different LULC classes from 1999 to 2019
LST range in ◦ C

LULC <21 21–<25 25–<29 29–<33 ≥ 33

Area (Km2) Area (%) Area (Km2) Area (%) Area (Km2) Area (%) Area (Km2) Area (%) Area (Km2) Area (%)

1999 Winter Season

Water Body 0.72 1.60 0.87 1.92 0.86 1.90 0 0 0 0
Urban Area 3.55 7.84 13.90 30.73 7.02 15.52 0 0 0 0
Vegetation 3.08 6.82 11.60 25.65 0.45 0.99 0 0 0 0
Bare Land 0.87 1.92 4.65 10.28 0.32 0.71 0 0 0 0
2009 Winter Season
Water Body 0.09 0.19 1.10 2.422 0.21 0.47 0 0 0 0
Urban Area 2.11 4.65 13.85 30.60 6.15 13.60 0 0 0 0
Vegetation 5.63 12.44 10.81 23.88 0.38 0.85 0 0 0 0
Bare Land 0.42 0.93 2.99 6.60 1.51 3.34 0 0 0 0
2019 Winter Season
Water Body 0 0 0.56 1.23 0.83 1.83 0.12 0.27 0 0
Urban Area 0 0 6.57 14.52 11.58 25.60 7.72 17.05 0 0
Vegetation 0 0 10.39 22.95 5.11 11.30 0.16 0.36 0 0
Bare Land 0 0 0.62 1.36 1.23 2.72 0.36 0.80 0 0

year 2019, covering 24.06 % (10.88 km2) area. In 1999, 15.96 %
(7.22 km2) area was covered by < 21 ◦ C, which was found 0 % for the
year 2019. Winter LST was recorded less in temperature comparing to
summer LST because the sun’s rays hit the earth at a low angle during
the winter season. Such rays are more distributed and reducing the
amount of heat that reaches every given spot in the earth’s environment.
The long lengths of nights and short-day time during winter season often
keep the study region from becoming heated up.
The subsequent seasonal LST distribution in the study region indi­
cated an increase in temperature during 1999 to 2019. The average
increase in estimated LST was 5.05 ◦ C and 3.45 ◦ C in summer and
winter season, respectively, from 1999 to 2019. The combined effect of
rapid population growth and acceleration in development activities
were responsible for this significant LST increase. The increasing LST
trend accelerates UHI’s effect and reduces urban health and progress in
achieving sustainable development (Abutaleb et al., 2015; Tomlinson
et al., 2011).
4.3. LST variation over different LULC classes
In order to demonstrate the distribution patterns of seasonal LST
over four different LULC classes, the cross-tabulation analysis was per­
formed, which are shown in Tables 5 and 6.
During the summer, urban areas with dominant build-up area was
witnessed higher LST range from 25 ◦ C - < 29 ◦ C (20.94 %) in 1999,
29 ◦ C - < 33 ◦ C (19.72 %) in 2009, and ≥ 33 ◦ C (15.09 %) in 2019. Also,
high LST was recorded for bare land in the range of 25 ◦ C to ≥ 33 ◦ C for
three different years. On the other hand, lowest temperature was
recorded for waterbody and vegetation cover ranging from < 21 ◦ C to
<33 ◦ C (Table 5). The minimum temperature was recorded for 1999
(20.37 ◦ C) and 2019 (25.92 ◦ C) in water bodies, whereas in the year
2009, vegetation cover (26.91 ◦ C) reflected the minimum temperature.
Following that, the maximum temperature was recorded in the urban
areas for the years 1999 (34.83◦ C) and 2019 (38.40 ◦ C), and for 2009,
the maximum temperature was found in bare land (35.18 ◦ C).
Table 6 demonstrates the winter LST variation over different LULC
classes in three different years from 1999 to 2019, no LULC was recor­
ded in the highest temperature zone (≥ 33 ◦ C). In 2019, 18.03 % urban
area, followed by 5.62 % bare land, were recorded LST in the range of
29 ◦ C - < 33 ◦ C. The lowest temperature was recorded in water bodies
17.18 ◦ C, 18.83 ◦ C & 21.49 ◦ C, where the highest temperature recorded
in urban areas were 21.54 ◦ C, 28.35 ◦ C & 32.24 ◦ C for 1999, 2009 and
2019 respectively.
The seasonal LST variation in different LULC classes revealed that,
from 1999 to 2019, the water body and green cover were recorded as
lower temperature zone because of less heat absorption and transpira­
tion. Besides that, the urban area and bare land were recorded as the
highest temperature zone due to impervous surface and sunshine
reflecting nature. Urban areas are mainly dominated by buildings that
produce long thermal infrared waves and high heat radiation that

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A.A. Kafy et al. Sustainable Cities and Society 64 (2021) 102542

Fig. 8. Distribution of summer UTFVI in the study area.

Fig. 9. Distribution of winter UTFVI in the study area.

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A.A. Kafy et al. Sustainable Cities and Society 64 (2021) 102542

Table 7
Area (km2) Distribution of seasonal UTFVI in the study area.
Year Class Name None Weak Middle Strong Stronger Strongest
Class Range <0 0–0.005 0.005–0.010 0.010–0.015 0.015–0.020 > 0.020

Summer 0.85 2.51 30.96 10.30 1.64 0.33

1999
Winter 11.24 30.59 2.91 0.25 0.12 0.12
Summer 0.77 1.16 14.62 18.30 8.57 2.09
2009
Winter 0.46 1.72 29.40 10.55 2.90 0.23
Summer 0.21 0.91 6.40 21.41 12.19 2.53
2019
Winter 0.05 1.48 15.73 14.44 13.12 0.44

Fig. 10. Summer UTFVI variation over different LULC classes from 1999 to 2019.

Fig. 11. Winter UTFVI variation over different LULC classes from 1999 to 2019.

increases LST (Lo & Quattrochi, 2003; Wang et al., 2017). The conse­ understanding of UHI effects in the urban area by demolishing the green
quence of gradual increase in LST leads to increase in UHI (Yuen, Kong, cover and substituting it with hardscape.
Environment, & P.I. & Society, 2009; Hossain et al., 2020). UHI will
impact the communities by rising peak energy demand in the summer­
4.4. Variation of seasonal UTFVI
time, air pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, heat-related illness, and
death (Bailly, Marchand, Faucheur, Tuc, & Tuc, 2019; Kim, 2008;
UTFVI describes the quality of urban health and ecology in terms of
Streutker, 2003). The proper implementation of sustainable environ­
the degree of thermal comfort presence in the environment. The
mental policies such as the clean air act, low carbon fuel standards, and
threshold values of summer and winter UTFVI distribution are shown in
renewable energy uses can impressively regulate the anthropogenic in­
Figs. 8 and 9 for 1999, 2009 and 2019.
ducers of the UHI effect (Hunt et al., 2017; Kalnay & Cai, 2003). The LST
During summer season, in year 1999, 68.43 % area was experienced
variations over different LULC classes statistics provides a better
moderate UTFVI effect followed by 22.77 %, and 3.63 % area was

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A.A. Kafy et al. Sustainable Cities and Society 64 (2021) 102542

Fig. 12. Predicted LULC classes.

recorded as strong and stronger effect, respectively. In year 2009 and

2019, moderate UTFVI effect was decreased by 32.30 % and 14.14 %, Table 9
where strong, stronger, and strongest areas were increased from Predicted LULC changes in the study area for 2029 and 2039.
40.44%–47.31 %, 18.93%–26.93% and 4.61%–5.59%, respectively. UHI
Area in Km2 Net Changes (%)
had the least impact (i.e. UTFVI < 0) in 0.85 km2, 0.77 km2 and LULC Classes
2019 2029 2039 2019–2029 2019–2039
0.21 km2 areas, whereas weak effect was recorded in 2.51 km2, 1.16 km2
and 0.91 km2 for 1999, 2009 and 2019, respectively (Table 7). Water Body 0.60 0.51 0.49 − 0.210 − 0.25
In the winter season (1999–2019), similar to the summer season, Urban Area 26.31 29.87 31.30 7.871 11.03
Vegetation 12.95 8.66 6.73 − 9.475 − 13.75
none and weak UTFVI were decreased significantly from 23.83 % to 0.11
Bare Land 5.39 6.21 6.72 1.821 2.96
% and 67.60 % to 3.27 %. In addition, from year 1999–2019, moderate
UTFVI area was increased from 6.43 % to 34.76 %, whereas strong,
stronger and strongest areas were increased from 0.55 % to 31.91 %, effect was recorded in urban areas, and vegetation cover and water
0.26%–28.99%, and 0.26 % to 0.97 %, respectively. bodies were recorded none to moderate effects (Fig.10). The only
The distribution of seasonal UTFVI demonstrates that none and exception was noticed in 2019, where vegetation area (2.14 %) was
weak UTFVI zones were decreased where strong, stronger, and stron­ recorded in the second-highest strongest UTFVI zone. In 1999, 36.44 %
gest areas were increased significantly. As the best thermal condition vegetation was experienced moderate UHI effect, followed by 14.56 %,
for a living is none and weak effect of UTFVI, therefore, the strongest and 0.68 % urban area and bare land was recorded as the strong and
zone represents vulnerable scenaries for the environment affected by strongest effect, respectively. In years 2009 and 2019, urban area was
higher UHI phenomenon (Fu & Weng, 2018; Sejati et al., 2019; Silva, found in strong to strongest UTFVI zones, and strongest zone was
da Silva, & Santos, 2018). increased from 2.82 % to 3.11 %. The bare land was also demonstrated
strongest UTFVI effect in 2009 (2.34 %) and 2019 (2.04 %).
In winter, similar to the summer season, strong to strongest UTFVI
4.5. UTFVI variation over different LULC classes
effect was recorded in urban and bare land areas and water bodies and
vegetation were showed as none to middle UHI effect (Fig. 11). In the
The seasonal (summer and winter) variation of UTFVI over different
year 1999, 33.23 %, 26.09 %, and 5.46 % urban area, vegetation, and
LULC classes for the years 1999, 2009, 2019 are illustrated in Figs. 10
bare land were experienced weak UTFVI effects, respectively. Urban
and Fig. 11, respectively. In summer from 1999 to 2019 strongest UTFVI

Table 8
Validation of the LULC simulation image using CA model for the year 2019.
Prediction Year CA model validation for LULC prediction using two modules

Kappa Parameters of IDRISI Selva Land Change module QGIS-MULUSCE Plugin module
2019
K-location K-no K-location Strata K-standard %-correctness Overall Kappa Value

0.89 0.91 0.87 0.86 89.41 0.86

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A.A. Kafy et al. Sustainable Cities and Society 64 (2021) 102542

Table 10 urban health and ecological comfort of the city. The increase in UTFVI
Validation of the predicted seasonal LST for the year 2019. also contributes to UHI’s formation, which turns the city areas in high
Prediction Year ANN model Validation for LST prediction using MATLAB software heated zones. Increasing green cover in urban areas by plantation and
the use of modern equipments in construction activities are one of those
No of hidden layer RMSE R
possible ways to reduce the effect of UTFVI and make the city ecologi­
Summer 2019 6 0.53 0.87 cally sustainable.
Winter 2019 6 0.624 0.83

4.6. Prediction of LULC change

area was found in strong to strongest UTFVI zones from 2009 to 2019,
and strongest effcet was increased by 1.15 % (2009) to 2.70 % (2019). In
The CA model was applied to predict future scenarios of LULC
2019, bare land was also demonstrated as the strongest UTFVI (2.04 %)
changes for 2029 and 2039 using 1999–2019 data (Fig. 12). For
effect.
ensuring acceptance in prediction results, the CA model was first applied
As the estimation of UTFVI based on LST’s values, for that reason, the
to predict the LULC for 2019. The predicted and estimated map were
strongest effect of UTFVI was noticed in urban areas, and vegetation
validated using kappa parameters in IDRISI Selva and QGIS-MULUSCE
cover was recorded as the least impact. The higher UTFVI affects the
Plugin software. All the parameters demonstrated excellent

Fig. 13. Distribution of predicted summer and winter LST.

14
A.A. Kafy et al.
Table 11
Range wise predicted summer LST distribution in the study area.
Year <21 21–<25
Area (Km2) Area (%) Area (Km2) Area (%)
2029 0 0 0 0
2039 0 0 0 0
2029 0 0 23.03 50.91
2039 0 0 14.15 31.29
Table 12
Validation of the predicted seasonal UTFVI for the year 2019.
Prediction Year ANN model Validation for UTFVI prediction using MATLAB
software
No of hidden layer RMSE R activities and significant decrease in the green areas will contribute to
Summer 2019 8 0.603 0.84
Winter 2019 8 0.592 0.83
performance with values of 0.89, 0.91, 0.87 and 0.86 for Klocation, Kno,
KlocationStrata, and Kstandard, respectively. The percentage of correctness
and overall kappa was 89.41 and 0.86 (Table 8). All the kappa param­
eters showed good promise for future prediction with more than 0.86
value.
The predicted LULC maps showed significant increase in urban area
and reduction in green cover. Compared to 2019, 7.87 % and 11.03 %
area will likely be turned in urban areas in the projected years 2029 and
2039 respectively. Remarkable decrease in vegetation cover will be
taken place by - 9.48 % and -13.75 % in 2029 and 2039, respectively
(Table 9).
Decreases in vegetation cover and increase in urban areas by
replacing the green cover could impact the city’s urban health,
ecosystem services, and thermal characteristics. If the increasing trend
of urban growth continues, the effects of UHI and UTFVI will be
expanded by resulting in many medical, economic, and environmental
concerns in the study area. Proper application of land-use planning,
preservation of water bodies, and an increase in urban green space will
help to make the Cumilla city sustainable by reducing the effects of UHI
and UTFVI.
4.7. Prediction of seasonal LST
The increasing trend in past patterns of seasonal LST draws the
importance of future LST prediction to identify the future UHI effect in
the study area. The ANN model was used to predict future seasonal LST
distribution. RMSE and R values were used to validate the prediction
accuracy by using predicted and measured LST for year 2019. The values
of RMSE was 0.53 and 0.62, where the R values were 0.87 and 0.83,
which revealed strong correlation between estimated and predicted
summer and winter LST values, respectively, for year 2019 (Table 10).
The relation between satellite-derived and predicted LST indicated a
strong agreement for future LST prediction using the ANN model.
Future predicted LST maps and range wise LST variation are shown
in Fig. 13 and Table 11. As the prediction was based on the previous LST
distribution patterns, the LST of 2029 and 2039 were also demonstrated
a significant increase. The result indicates that in summer, no area will
be fallen in less than 25 ◦ C in 2029 and 2039. In 2029, 32.77 % area will
likely to be faced more than 33 ◦ C temperature, which will be 37.06 % in
2039. During the summer season, the sun’s rays touch the earth with a
steep angle, which will influence the increase in temperature with
tremendous increase in impervious layers. In winter, for year 2029, half
of the study area (50.91 %) will likely to be faced LST in range of 21 ◦ C -
< 25 ◦ C, followed by 42.35 % from 25 ◦ C to < 29 ◦ C in 2039 (Table 12).
Sustainable Cities and Society 64 (2021) 102542
Predicted Summer LST (◦ C)
25–<29 29–<33 ≥ 33
Area (Km2) Area (%) Area (Km2) Area (%) Area (Km2) Area (%)
13.15 29.06 17.27 38.17 14.83 32.77
10.47 23.13 18.01 39.79 16.77 37.06
Predicted winter LST (◦ C)
8.26 18.25 13.95 30.84 0 0
14.16 42.35 15.64 23.53 1.28 2.83
Only 2.83 % area will be recorded in the highest temperature zone (≥
33 ◦ C) in 2039.
The prediction results demonstrate increasing LST trends since it was
based on previous LST data (1999–2019), where the dominance of
higher LST was affected by urban areas. Increase in urban development
the increase in LST and subsequent UHI effects in the future. Another
reason for increased LST even in the absence of rapid urbanization
would be the greenhouse effect, global warming, and surface charac­
teristics change. The predicted LST showed how the study area’s tem­
perature would be increased and result in a higher UHI and UTFVI effect.
UHI effect will be increased by energy consumption, elevated green­
house gas emissions, and air pollution, pose a danger to aquatic systems
(ponds, streams, rivers, lakes, and oceans) and risk to human health. The
rise in greenhouse gas emissions generally harms human health, de­
grades urban health quality, and reduces the city’s environmental
sustainability.
4.8. Prediction of seasonal UTFVI
The previous increasing trends of seasonal UTFVI draw the impor­
tance of future UTFVI prediction to identify the possible upcoming UHI
effect in the study area (Fig. 14). For predicting future seasonal UTFVI
distribution, the ANN model was implemented. The prediction accuracy
was validated by RMSE and R values between the predicted and
measured UTFVI distribution of the year 2019 (Table 12). The RMSE
values were 0.603 and 0.592, which were 0.84 and 0.83 for R in summer
and winter for the year 2019. The values indicate a strong relationship
between the predicted and estimated UTFVI and shown a strong
agreement for future prediction using the ANN model.
It is evident from the predicted data that the higher concentration of
the UTFVI will be accumulated in urban areas, which is comparatively
less in green spaces. The effects of strong to strongest UTFVI will be
increased significantly with reduction in none to middle effcets. In
summer 2029 and 2039, the strongest UTFVI effect will likely to be
increased by 26.45 % and 31.30 %, where 3.57 % and 4.41 % of
increment will be shown in winter compared to 2019 (Table 13).
UTFVI is primarily affected by UHI, which is one of the most natural
ways to observe how the world is changing due to human effects. The
rapid unplanned urban development, green cover reduction, and lack of
proper planning are some of the main reasons that contribute to the
increment of UHI effect in the study area. There would have been no
sidewalks, parking lots, and skyscrapers if humans were not there to
develop them. Moreover, while these installations are essential to city
life, the heat islands create by them are harmful to human health, city
environment and sustainability (IPCC, 2014; Ramachandran, Roy,
Chakravarthi, Joshi, & Sanjay, 2020). UTFVI and UHI effect can be
impressively reduced in any region by using light-coloured concrete and
white roofs, green roofs with vegetation cover, planting trees around the
city, implementation of environmental policies with low carbon fuel
standards, uses of renewable energy, and clean car rule standards (Kafy,
Hossain et al., 2019; Santamouris, 2020; Yang et al., 2020).
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A.A. Kafy et al. Sustainable Cities and Society 64 (2021) 102542

Fig. 14. Distribution of predicted summer and winter UTFVI.

Table 13
Area (km2) distribution of seasonal UTFVI in the study area for the year 2029 and 2039.
Year Class Name None Weak Middle Strong Stronger Strongest
Class Range <0 0–0.005 0.005–0.010 0.010–0.015 0.015–0.020 > 0.020

Summer 0.00 0.56 0.98 12.60 0.03 31.07

2029
Winter 0.04 1.75 8.15 16.20 14.56 4.55
Summer 0.00 0.00 0.17 8.18 0.98 35.92
2039
Winter 0.00 0.86 7.84 16.44 14.73 5.39
Summer − 1.70 − 3.76 − 20.05 − 28.82 − 26.91 26.45
Change (%) 2019-2029
Winter − 0.06 − 1.52 − 26.62 − 15.71 − 14.43 3.57
Summer − 1.70 − 4.32 − 20.86 − 33.24 − 25.96 31.30
Change (%) 2019-2039
Winter − 0.11 − 2.41 − 26.93 − 15.47 − 14.27 4.41

5. Conclusion The cross-linkage analysis was conducted to find out the association
between LULC categories, LST, and UTFVI. By analyzing the data in
This study examined the LULC types changes and investigated the 1999, 2009 and 2019, the authors clarified that an increase in the urban
relationship with seasonal LST and UTFVI in Cumilla from 1999 to 2019. green cover among the city’s built-up areas could significantly decrease

16
A.A. Kafy et al.
the seasonal LST and UTFVI effect. The CA model was employed to
predict the distribution of LULC in Cumilla for 2029 and 2039, which
described a significant decrease in green cover. The ANN model was
used to predict the LST and UTFVI distribution, demonstrating that more
than 30 % of the city area will likely be faced with higher temperature
and strongest UTFVI effect in the predicted years. The results will help
the city authority to develop an eco-friendly sustainable environment by
functional modification and replacement of the LULC distribution based
on the current situation. The proper distribution of LULC directly helps
in mitigating the UHI effect, sustainable city development, protection of
ecosystem services, and daily life. The results of this study provide
valuable insights for policymakers, environmental engineers, and city
planners.
Authors contributions
“Abdulla - Al Kafy” developed the original idea for this research,
study conception and design, monitor and guideline provider for
acquisition of data and writing, analysis and interpretation of data,
drafted and reviewed the manuscript and provided input in writing and
finalizing the full manuscript. “Abdullah-Al-Faisal” reviewed and
drafted the manuscript, predicted the seasonal LST, made language
correction and finalized the manuscript. “Md. Shahinoor Rahman”
updated the manuscript contents, provided guidelines for writing,
proofread the full manuscript, give critical review and language editing.
“Muhaiminul Islam” drafted the introduction and study area, revised
the full manuscript and finalized the writing part of the relationship
between LULC and UTFVI analysis. “Abdullah Al Rakib” performed
land cover classification, LST and UTFVI estimation, wrote some part of
the analysis. “Md. Soumik Sikdar” wrote analysis related to UTFVI,
drafted the conclusion and revised the manuscript. “Md. Arshadul
Islam” performed classification accuracy and wrote land cover related
analysis. “Md. Hasib Hasan Khan” performed relationship analysis
with land cover and LST and wrote some parts of analysis. “Md. Hasnan
Sakin Sarker” revised the writing of UTFVI analysis and finalised the
relationship part of LULC and UTFVI. “Jannatul Mawa” revised and
finalised the writing of LULC related analysis. “Golam Shabbir Sattar”
performed proofreading and language editing of the manuscript
Declaration of Competing Interest
The authors report no declarations of interest.
Acknowledgments
The authors would like to thank the Cumilla City Corporation,
Bangladesh Meteorological Department and the US Geological Survey
for assisting this research with data-sets.
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