Environmental Science and Pollution Research (2023) 30:11025–11045

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-22697-3

RESEARCH ARTICLE

Inclusive green growth for sustainable development of cities in China:

spatiotemporal differences and influencing factors
Shuangshuang Fan1 · Hongyun Huang2 · William Mbanyele2 · Zihao Guo3 · Chenxi Zhang2

Received: 18 April 2022 / Accepted: 19 August 2022 / Published online: 10 September 2022
© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2022

Abstract
Inclusive green growth (IGG) based on coordinating the society, economy, and environment is a new way to reach sustainable
development. However, there is a lack of relevant research in developing countries. To bridge this gap, based on a compre-
hensive index that includes economy, social, and environment, this study evaluates the urban inclusive green growth index
(IGGI) of 282 in China from 2003 to 2020 and analyzes the spatiotemporal dynamics and regional differences. Moreover,
the spatial Durbin model is employed to explore the plausible influencing factors of urban IGGI in China. The main results
show an increasing trend of IGGI in Chinese cities and imbalanced spatiotemporal dynamics. Furthermore, the econometric
regress results show that upgrade of industrial structure, opening up, human capital, and urban innovation have significant
positive impact on urban IGGI, while the administrative capacity of the government and urban industrialization show nega-
tive impact on urban IGGI; human capital not only affects the local IGGI but also has significant spatial spillover effects to
the surrounding cities. This finding provides new evidence for China to achieve its 2030 sustainable development goals and
sheds lights on how policy can be improved to boost IGGI levels and achieve carbon neutrality in 2060.

Keywords Inclusive green growth · Sustainable development · Spatiotemporal differences · Influencing factors · China

Introduction

Rapid urbanization is the standout sociolect-ecological phe-

nomenon in the present-day world; by the end of 2019, the
global population has increased to 7.67 billion, of which
about 56% live in cities, and it is estimated that the urbaniza-
Responsible Editor: Eyup Dogan
tion rate will reach 65% by 2050 (UN DESA, 2019; Ghaffar-
* Zihao Guo pasand et al. 2021). China, as the largest developing country
gzhwh98@163.com in the world, has experienced accelerated urbanization since
Shuangshuang Fan the 1980s, and the urban population increased from 17.92
amily_fan@163.com percent in 1978 to 57.69 percent in 2016 (Liu et al. 2021a),
Hongyun Huang which is far above the global average and the Asian aver-
hongyunhuang0628@163.com age (Hong et al. 2021). However, rapid urbanization without
William Mbanyele adequate planning brings great pressure to ecological and
wmbanyele@sdu.edu.cn social systems (Ghaffarpasand et al. 2021; Ali et al. 2019).
Chenxi Zhang For instance, recent studies documented consistent evidence
aurora@mail.sdu.edu.cn that urbanization is positively associated with environmental
degradation (Kassouri 2021; Shahbaz et al. 2014; Adams
1
School of Management, China University of Mining et al. 2020). Inappropriate urbanization, accompanied by
and Technology-Beijing, Beijing 100091, China
extensive industrialization, could lead to excessive energy
2
Center for Economic Research, Shandong University, consumption, a large amount of pollution, and vegetation
Jinan 250100, China
being replaced by buildings, thus jeopardizing ecological
3
Zhongtai Securities Institute for Financial Studies, Shandong welfare (Huo et al. 2020; Zhong et al. 2021; Danish and
University, Jinan 250100, China

13
Vol.:(0123456789)
11026
Wang 2019; Guo et al. 2018). In addition, the rapid urban
population growth and lag in urban planning have caused
many social problems, such as widening income disparities,
rising unemployment, and exorbitant housing prices, which
have a substantial negative impact on public social welfare
(Tan et al. 2016; Sulemana et al. 2019; Yang et al. 2020).
Moreover, existing studies (Stiglitz 2016; Armeanu et al.
2018) have proposed that continuously deteriorating social
inequality and environment issues may lead to a slowdown
in economic growth.
Cities generate about 70% of global GDP (Paiho et al.
2020), consume close to two thirds of the global energy,
account for about 80 percent of the global greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions, and produce more than 50 percent of the
global waste (Heshmati and Rashidghalam 2021). Therefore,
cities are considered leverage points in the quest for global
sustainability (Grant and Chuang 2012), and special atten-
tion should be paid to sustainable urban development (SUD)
to prevent the adverse effects of inappropriate urban plan-
ning and unprincipled urban growth, which could protect the
natural environment, as well as the well-being of the people
and society (Kaur and Garg 2019). SUD refers to highly
developed urbanization and modernization through long-
term and sustained urban growth and structural evolution at
a certain spatiotemporal scale, such that urban development
meets the needs of both contemporary realities and future
development requirements (Bibri and Krogstie 2017; Yang
2019). As the structure of developed countries and develop-
ing countries is totally different, the choice of the path to
SUD should be adapted to suit local conditions. Develop-
ing countries may lag behind in urbanization planning, and
many adverse consequences caused by urbanization may be
more obvious. Therefore, improvement strategies should
be urgently and appropriately formulated in developing
countries.
To achieve the ambitions of SUD, each country needs
to monitor its progress towards all SUD projects, thereby
helping to identify problem areas to support targeted poli-
cies (Xu et al. 2020). Therefore, it is necessary to estab-
lish a comprehensive and effective evaluation system at
the city level to reveal the economic performance, social
well-being, and ecological performance in the process of
urbanization, so as to formulate accurate planning and
policies that promote SUB (Cheng et al. 2021). There is
increased research monitoring the progress of sustainable
urban development; issue or theme-based frameworks are
used primarily for the development of indicators, usually
focusing on economic, social, and environmental aspects
(Cheng et al. 2021; Chen and Zhang 2020; Kissinger and
Stossel 2021; Sharifi 2020). Based on this, a growing num-
ber of studies use inclusive green growth (IGG) to assess
the level of SUB. IGG is a growth model that values and
embraces the contribution of marginalized individuals as
13
Environmental Science and Pollution Research (2023) 30:11025–11045
stakeholders in the process of achieving sustainable devel-
opment (Soma et al. 2018; Brand et al. 2017; Spash 2020).
Thus, it is devoted to promote social equity, protect natu-
ral environment, and stimulate sustainable growth through
narrowing the gap between the rich and the poor, provid-
ing fair opportunities, and strengthening the resilience of
the economy to shocks.
However, there is no consensus on how to effectively
evaluate the level of IGG in China, especially from the per-
spective of urban. In recent years, the high-quality develop-
ment initiative also incorporates the core ingredients of IGG,
such as green development, coordinated development, and
shared results. While targeted measures to improve local
IGG are not effective caused by the lack of quantitative
knowledge of local IGG by urban authorities, which will
prevent the city governing authorities from drawing up poli-
cies related to promote SUD according to local conditions.
Although Sun et al. (2020) used the DEA method to measure
inclusive green efficiency (IGE) of 285 cities in China, this
method only measures efficiency from the perspective of
input and output, focusing on co-environmental efficiency
while ignoring social inclusion, so a more comprehensive
measurement index system is needed to be adopted. There-
fore, it is very necessary to accurately assess the level of
urban IGG and explore the key influencing factors in China.
Moreover, a better understanding of the complexity and
dynamics of SUD under different development pathways is
necessary for cities to achieve IGG and sustainable devel-
opment goals (Ali-Toudert and Ji 2017; Ruan et al. 2020),
but there is a gap in the literature on the scenario setting for
the realization of sustainable development goals of Chinese
cities.
Motivated by this, our manuscript tries to address the
following issues: (i) how to design a proper evaluation sys-
tem according to the concept of IGG, to comprehensively
measure urban IGG in China? (ii) What are the temporal
trend and spatial distribution characteristics of urban IG, and
what are the regional differences? (iii) What are the plausi-
ble influencing factors will drive the urban IG in China, as
well as how is the spatial spillover effect of these factors?
To this end, this paper sets up a comprehensive system for
evaluating the urban IGG level in China, which includes
three dimensions of economic system, social system, and
environmental system. And the Entropy weight-TOPSIS
method is used to calculate the urban inclusive green growth
index (IGGI). Moreover, the Dagum Gini coefficient and
the Exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) methods are
employed to explore the characteristics of regional differ-
ences and spatial agglomeration of urban IGG, respectively.
Furthermore, we apply the spatial econometric model to
empirically test the plausible influencing factors of urban
IGG, and examine the spatial spillover effects of each factor.
In addition, we conducted simulations based on different
Environmental Science and Pollution Research (2023) 30:11025–11045
future scenarios to draw up accurate policies and measures
to improve urban IGG in China.
The rest of this paper is organized as follow: the “Litera-
ture review” section is the literature review, which includes
the concept and measurement of IGG, as well as the influ-
encing factors of IGG in literature. Moreover, the main con-
tributions of this paper are put forward. The “Materials and
methodology” section presents the materials and methodol-
ogy. We apply the Entropy weight-TOPSIS model to meas-
ure the IGG. Then, the methods to calculate the regional
differentiation and dynamic evolution feature are introduced.
The “Empirical results and analysis” section is the result and
analysis, which includes spatial-temporal dynamic evolution
and regional characteristics. The “Spatial econometric and
scenario simulation” section is the spatial econometric and
scenario simulation, including urban IGGI spatial correla-
tion test and the spatial econometric model, as well as the
scenario simulation. The “Conclusion and policy implica-
tions” section includes the whole manuscript and draw up
some policy implications.
Literature review
The concept of inclusive green growth and its
measurement
The idea of inclusive green growth (IGG) was first pro-
posed at the 2012 Rio+20 Summit1, and in the same year,
the World Bank proposed the concept of IGG, which is the
pathway to sustainable development; it makes the case that
greening growth is necessary, efficient, and affordable. Yet
spurring growth without ensuring equity will thwart efforts
to reduce poverty and improve access to health, educa-
tion, and infrastructure services (World Bank 2012). IGG
emphasizes a harmonious and balanced relationship among
economic, social, and ecological systems, that is, the pur-
suit of economic growth while paying attention to social
well-being (harmonizing the interests of the current gen-
eration) and ecological environment protection (the inter-
ests of future generations). In recent years, IGG has been
mainly used in the fields of carbon emission reduction, car-
bon tax, resource development and utilization, social equity,
and social inclusion (Ojha et al. 2020; Wang et al. 2020a;
Mccartney and Brunner 2020; Soma et al. 2018; Brand et al.
2017; Spash 2020). And the term has become a buzz word
for development planning and cooperation and is viewed as
a means for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals
(Berkhout et al. 2017). Due to sustainability issues and the
1
The Rio 2012, Rio+20, also known as United Nations Conference
on Sustainable Development (UNCSD).
11027
negative impact caused by the accelerated urbanization in
China (Peng et al. 2021), a series of new development con-
cepts based on “economic growth, environment security,
and people-oriented” were pointed out in the 19th National
Congress of the Communist Party of China (Pan et al. 2021).
The recent developments in China are well aligned with the
conceptual dimension of IGG and highlight China’s future
development strategy and long-term guidance to meet sus-
tainability. Since sustainable development mainly focuses
on the worldwide issues, it is difficult to conduct targeted
analysis on different countries (Jiang et al. 2021), and IGG
is more appropriate and suitable for constructing a concep-
tual framework for evaluating SUD in a single country like
China.
A growing number of studies have evaluated the IGG
using different approaches and tools. For instance, Zhang
et al. (2021a) provide a comprehensive measurement sys-
tem based on minimum and maximum standardization and
entropy weight method to measure IGG, with indicators
mainly targeting dimensions including poverty, environ-
ment, and prosperity sharing. Sun et al. (2020) conducted a
study on the urban inclusive green growth efficiency assess-
ment using a comprehensive directional distance function
and slack-based DEA measure model. Similarly, He and
Du 2021 used the epsilon-based measure (EBM) model
and Global Malmquist-Luenberger (GML) index to evalu-
ate China’s IGG. In another study, Kumar (2017) assessed
the IGG using the inclusive wealth index (IWI), and within
this framework, economic progress was measured by growth
in inclusive wealth. Furthermore, Ikeda and Managi (2019)
provided future scenarios for different regions in Japan based
on shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), and projected
the inclusive wealth index (IWI) under different future sce-
narios for 2015–2100. Zhang et al. (2021b) created a pixel-
level IW database for China and Japan, and conducted a
multiscalar analysis of the spatiotemporal pattern of IW
and investigated the contributions of component capital to
IW change. In addition, Halkos et al. (2021) constructed
the Inclusive Green Industrial Performance (IGIP) index in
terms of inclusiveness and ecological sustainability to meas-
ure the industrial performances of 83 economies. Herrero
et al. (2020) calculated the Inclusive Green Energy Index
for 157 countries based on data in terms of social inclusion,
clean production, and energy consumption. Additionally, Liu
et al. (2021b) measured the urban IGG in Yangtze River of
China, and used kernel density and the Dagum Gini coef-
ficient to describe characteristics regarding the distribution
and spatial disparities among city clusters.
The influencing factors of inclusive green growth
In addition to evaluating the IGG, the development of an
effective plan to promote SUD should explore the factors
13
11028
that may be driving urban IGG. However, since IGG is a
new concept, there is a relative scarcity of current articles
illustrating its influencing factors. It is noteworthy that IGG
is a combination of “inclusive growth” and “green growth.”
The former describes the harmonious relationship between
economic system and social system in cities (Hu and Wang
2019), while the latter expresses the balance between eco-
nomic system and ecological system (Wellmann et al. 2020).
Prior related studies based their analyses on the factors that
affect inclusive growth and green growth. From an inclusive
growth perspective, several studies (Oyinlola and Adedeji
2017; Oyinlola et al. 2020) have examined the role of
human capital in economic growth and its inclusiveness in
sub-Saharan Africa. They proposed that the improvement of
human capital can reduce the gap between the rich and the
poor in society. And in other influencing elements, Ofori and
Asongu (2021) concluded that FDI modulates ICT dynamics
to engender positive synergy effects on inclusive growth.
Additionally, Kouton (2020) indicated that renewable energy
consumption has a significant positive impact on inclusive
growth in Africa, particularly in African countries experi-
encing low levels of inclusive growth. Wang et al. (2021a)
concluded that smart cities that adopt common design prin-
ciples could contribute to inclusive urban growth. Regarding
the influencing factors of green growth, the existing litera-
ture mainly focuses on industrial structure upgrading (Cui
et al. 2019), environmental regulation policies (Peng 2020;
Abid et al. 2021), green innovation (Zhang et al. 2021b;
Abid et al. 2022), clean energy development (Du et al. 2021;
Abid et al. 2020), intelligent transportation system (Rathee
et al. 2020), and financial agglomeration (Tian et al. 2021).
Research gap and main contributions
In summary, the existing study on IGG has achieved rich
fruit, but in the following aspects it still needs to be further
expended: (i) most of the existing research on IGG evalua-
tion focuses on the macro-regional level or provincial level,
while ignores the measurement, the development trend anal-
ysis, the spatial distribution revelation, and regional differ-
ences exploration on the urban level. (ii) The existing studies
focus on how to measure and assess IGG, but the research
on in-depth capture of its influencing factors from the per-
spective of spatial relevance is scarce, especially in-depth
exploration of the spatial spillover effect of each influencing
factor. (iii) Existing studies often according to the empiri-
cal research result to make decisions based on the current
situation when making policy recommendations. However,
it ignores the quantitative analysis of different development
scenarios based on the future.
The main contribution of this manuscript is to bridge
the mentioned research gaps: (i) we build an urban IGG
evaluation index system in China, and further presents its
13
Environmental Science and Pollution Research (2023) 30:11025–11045
temporal development characteristics, spatial distribution
characteristics, and regional differences, to deeply reveal
its development trend and evolutionary trajectory. (ii) The
spatial Durbin econometric model is constructed to dem-
onstrate the influencing factors of IGGI in Chinese cities,
which considers the geographical weight of different cities,
and it can not only identify the impact of a factor on the city,
but also analyze the spillover effect of this factor on nearby
surrounding cities. (iii) To simulate the future scenario, we
assumed there may be five different growth rates in China’s
economy in the future, and calculates the growth of each
influencing IGGI factor under the five scenarios. Therefore,
it is scientific and practical to guide the policy suggestions
for long-term urban development.
Materials and methodology
Measurement system of IGGI
Considering that the IGG relates to the fields of economic
growth, carbon emission reduction, carbon tax, resource
development and utilization, social equity, and social inclu-
sion (Ojha et al. 2020; Wang et al. 2020a; Mccartney and
brunner 2020; Soma et al. 2018; Brand et al. 2017; Spash
2020), we divide the indicator system for measuring IGG into
the following three dimensions: economic dimension, social
dimension, and environmental dimension. This division con-
siders that IGG of cities in China should realize the coordi-
nated relationship among economic, social, and ecological,
as well as the collaborative optimization of the three systems
in an ideal state. The social dimension is then divided into
two subdivisions: income distribution and opportunity fair-
ness. Meanwhile, the factors that influence IGG of cities are
determined under the corresponding dimensions, and the
indicators are selected based on this basis: these indicators
should accurately reflect the degree of inclusive growth in
different dimensions, as well as have scientific and rational
characteristics, and reliable data sources are required.
Following that, we picked metrics such as per capita
GDP, annual GDP growth rate, and investment in fixed
assets to depict economic production, economic growth rate,
and growth potential, respectively, by merging the classic
literature and authoritative experts’ perspectives. In addition,
given the recent trend of urban growth in China, we regard
economic resilience as a city’s responsiveness to the impact
of a shock, as well as penetration of the digital economy that
really reflects “inclusiveness” in economic dimension. We
apply the entropy weight approach to create a digital econ-
omy index by combining urban internet coverage, mobile
phone penetration, the number of computer and software
employees, and telecom business income. Appendixes 1 and
2 show the computation of economic resilience. To illustrate
Environmental Science and Pollution Research (2023) 30:11025–11045 11029

the fair degree of income distribution in the social dimen- Yij

sion, we chose rural per capita net income, per capita dispos- Zij = i = 1, 2 … , n, j = 1, 2, … , m
∑n
(2)
able income of urban residents, and the ratio of per capita Yij
income of urban and rural people. We also represent oppor-
i=1

tunity equity across 12 sub-dimensions, including education, To calculate the information entropy Ej of each meas-
employment, medical care, social security, and infrastruc- urement index Zij in the IGG measurement index system
ture. Meanwhile, we define the environmental dimension’s processed by formula (1) and formula (2), as formula (3).
green development level using eight indicators from three
1 ∑ n � �
perspectives: green production, green consumption, and Ej = − Zij ln Zij , j = 1, 2 … , m (3)
environmental governance. The sample data are from the ln(n) i=1
China Urban Yearbook, the China Statistical Yearbook, the
China Environmental Yearbook, City Government Statistics
(3) To calculate the weight wj of the jth indicators through
website, and the China population Yearbook during study
formula (4).
period. The statistical time span is from 2003 to 2020, and
the geographical span covers 282 Chinese cities. To fulfill Wj =
1−Ej
, j = 1, 2 … , m
the data integrity principle, we augment the deficient indi- ∑
m
(1−Ej ) (4)
vidual data through interpolation. Table 1 depicts the assess-
i=1

ment index methodology for IGGI of Chinese cities.

(4) To determine the optimal alternative Z+ and the worst
alternative Z− by formulas (5) and (6). The optimal selec-
Entropy‑weighting TOPSIS model tion Z+ that consists of the maximum value of each index
element is shown as
There are numerous approaches to resolve the index weight, ( { } { } { })
which may be separated into subjective weighing method Z + = max Z11 , Z21 , … Zn1 , max Z12 , Z22 , … Zn2 , … , max Z1m , Z2m , … Znm
( + + )
and objective weighting method. Subjective weighing tech- = Z1 , Z2 , … , Zm+ (5)
niques mainly comprise expert scoring method, analytic −
The worst selection scheme Z consists of the minimum
hierarchy process (AHP), however the downside, there is
value of each index element, shown as
increased subjective arbitrariness. To address this issue, the
( { } { } { })
objective weighting approach may determine the weight Z − = min Z11 , Z21 , … Zn1 , min Z12 , Z22 , … Zn2 , … , min Z1m , Z2m , … Znm
( − − )
coefficient of the assessment index, which can more truly = Z1 , Z2 , … , Zm− (6)
and objectively reflect the effect of factors on the aim. As
a result, the Entropy-weighing TOPSIS approach, which is (5) To calculate the closeness di+ and di− between each evalu-
extensively used in objective weighting methods, is used in ation object and the best scheme Z+ and the worst scheme
this study to determine the weight coefficients of each vari- Z− through the following formula.
able and IGGI. This method’s precise stages are as follows: √
√m
√∑ ( )2
(1) The indicators of the IGG measurement index system di = √ Wj Zij − Zj+
+
(7)
are treated in the same direction of indicator attributes j=1

in formula (1), the indicators are selected to be positive,

and the processed indicators are recorded as Yij, where i √
√m
√∑ ( )2
represents the city, j represents the measurement index, di− = √ Wj Zij − Zj− (8)
and MAX(Xij), MIN(Xij) represents the maximum and j=1
minimum values, respectively.
To calculate the closeness between each evaluation
⎧ Xij −min (Xij ) object and the optimal scheme to obtain the IGGI Ci.
⎪ max(Xij )−min(Xij )
, Xij means a positive indicator
Yij = ⎨ max(Xij )−Xij (1) di−
⎪ max(Xij )−min(Xij )
, Xij means a negative indicator Ci = (9)
⎩ di+ + di−
(2) Standardizing Yij and eliminate the inconsistency in the where 0 ≤ Ci ≤ 1; the larger the value of it (i.e., closer to 1),
dimensions of different measurement indicators by formula (2), the better the IGGI of the city. On the contrary, the smaller
and the standardized indicators are recorded as Zij, where n is the the value of it (i.e., closer to 0), the worse the IGGI of the
number of cities and m is the number of indicators. city.

13
11030 Environmental Science and Pollution Research (2023) 30:11025–11045

Table 1  Evaluation index system of urban IGGI in China

Dimension Sub-dimension Sub-classification Index Unit

Economic Economic growth Economic output
Growth rate
Growth potential
Income distribution (Bank, 2018; Rural income
Sun et al. 2020) Urban income
Digital economy penetration X6: digital economy index
Urban economic resilience X7: economic resilience index
Urban-rural income gap
Social Fairness of opportunities Educational opportunities
(Sun et al. 2020)
Employment opportunities
Medical opportunities
Social security opportunities X15: basic old-age people insur-
Infrastructure opportunities X17: telecommunications and post
Environment Green development Green production
(Zhang et al. 2021b;
Sun et al. 2020)
Green consumption
Environmental governance
X1: per capita GDP Yuan/person
X2: annual GDP growth rate %
X3: investment in fixed assets Ten thousand yuan
X4: rural per capita net income Yuan/person
X5: per capita disposable income Yuan/person
of urban residents
/
/
X8: per capita income ratio of multiple
urban and rural residents
X9: ratio of students in primary %
schools
X10: ratio of students in middle %
schools
X11: employment ratio excludes %
the primary industry.
X12: urban unemployment rate %
X13: number of health technicians Per thousand population
X14: number of medical institu- Per thousand population
tions
%
ance
X16: basic medical insurance %
Yuan
income per capital
X18: passenger volume per popula- Per people
tion
X19: freight volume per population Ton
X20: internet coverage %
X21: industrial wastewater dis- Ton/ten thousand yuan
charge per GDP
X22: sulfur dioxide discharge per Ton/ten thousand yuan
GDP
X23: industrial dust discharge per Ton/ten thousand yuan
GDP
X24: carbon dioxide discharge per Ton/ten thousand yuan
GDP
X25: energy consumption per Ton
capita
X26: utilization rate of general %
industrial solid waste
X27: sewage disposal rate %
X28: harmless rate of domestic %
garbage

The Dagum Gini coefficient and its decomposition
Dagum (1997) proposed a decomposition method based on sub-
samples and proposed that the overall Gini coefficient be decom-
posed into contributions by the inter-regional differences, intra-
regional net differences, and intensity of trans-variation. This
method fully considers the distribution status of sub-samples
(Araar 2008). It identifies the sources of the regional differences
and effectively solves the problem of the cross-overlap between
the sample data (e.g., not all cities in the eastern region have a
greater IGGI than the central and western cities. Some central
and western cities may have a higher IGGI than individual cities
in the eastern region, which generates the so-called cross-overlap
problem), thereby bypassing the limits of the conventional Gini

13
Environmental Science and Pollution Research (2023) 30:11025–11045 11031

coefficient and Theil index (Chen et al. 2016). The total variance where djh means the difference of IGGI between urban
sources were decomposed into intra-regional variance contribu- agglomeration, which represents the mathematical expecta-
tion, inter-regional net variance contribution, and hypervariable tion of all of yji − yhr > 0 in urban agglomerations j and h,
density contribution using the sub-sample decomposition analy- and pjh represents the mathematical expectation of all of
sis technique. The total Gini coefficient G is determined using yji − yhr < 0 in urban agglomerations j and h; Fj (Fh) is the
the Dagum Gini coefficient definition as follows: urban agglomerations j (h)’s cumulative density distribu-
k k nj nh
tion function.
∑ ∑ ∑ ∑ �yji −yhr �
G= 2n2 y
yh ≤ ⋯ yj ⋯ ≤ yk (10)
j=1 h=1 i=1 j=1
Spatiotemporal kernel density estimation (STKDE)
where k and n, respectively, represent the number of urban model
agglomerations and the number of all cities; nj (nh) is the
number of cities in urban agglomerations j (h); yji (yhr) rep- To estimate the density of an event, the stkde model is multi-
resents the IGGI of the i (r) city in urban agglomerations j plied by a bi-variate kernel put over the x-y (spatial) domain
(h) calculated by Entropy weight-TOPSIS method; y is the and a uni-variate kernel placed over the time dimension t.
average IGGI of all cities; and yj ( yh ) is the average IGGI of Three-dimensional violation data points are then utilized as
urban agglomeration j (h). Meanwhile, urban agglomerations input to a 3d kernel density estimation technique, which adds
are ranked according to the average IGGI of urban agglom- a temporal dimension to the classic kernel density estima-
erations. The Gini coefficient of urban agglomeration Gjj and tion (Li et al. 2020). in formula, the density formula of the
the Gini coefficient between city j and city h represented as density function f(x) of random variable x at position x is
Gjh are calculated as shown as formula (17). in this article, the gaussian kernel
function is used to examine the dynamic development of
nj nj
1 ∑ ∑ iggi and is determined in Eq (17), where n is the number of
∣ yji − yjr ∣
2yj
i=1r=1 (11) sample observations, xi is the independent and identically
Gjj = distributed observation value, x is the mean value, and h is
n2j
the bandwidth, which indicates the smoothness and estimate
accuracy of the density function curve. Eq (19) shows the
nj nj
∑ ∑ constraints that must be met by the kernel function k(∙) as a
∣ yji − yhr ∣
i=1r=1 (12) weighting function or smooth conversion function:
Gjh = � �
nj nh yj + yh ( )
1 ∑
N
Xi − X
f (x) = K (17)
Based on the Dagum Gini coefficient deposition method, Nh i=1 h
the G could be deposited as intra-regional difference contribu-
tion Gw, the inter-regional contribution Gnb, and the hypervari- � 2�
able density contribution Gt, calculated as 1 x
K(x) = √ exp − (18)
2𝜋 2
∑ k
Gw = Gjj pj sj (13)
j=1 ⎧ lim K(x) ⋅ x = 0
⎪ x→∞
(19)
+∞
⎨ K(x) ≫ 0, ∫−∞ K(x)dx = 1
∑ ∑
k j−1
( ) ⎪ sup K(x) < +∞, ∫ +∞ K 2 (x)dx = 1
Gnb = Gjh pj sh + ph sj Djh (14) ⎩ −∞
j=2 h=1

nj nj yj
s.t.pj =
y
, sj =
ny
, j = 1, 2 … , m (15) Empirical results and analysis

In the formula (14) and formula (15), Djh reflects the inter- Spatiotemporal dynamic evolution of IGGI
impact between urban agglomerations j and h, calculated as
∞ y
In this section, the urban IGGI in China calculated by the
djh = ∫0 dFj (y) ∫0 (y − x)dFh (x)
∞ y
Entropy weight-TOPSIS method introduced in the previous
pjh = ∫0 dFh (y) ∫0 (y − x)dFj (x) (16) section from 2003 to 2020 will be presented and analyzed,
djh −pjh
Djh = d +p including the time trend analysis (shown in Fig. 1) and spa-
tiotemporal dynamic evolution trends (shown in Fig. 2).
jh jh

13
11032
Fig. 1  Time trend of IGGI during 2003–2020
Using the analysis of time trends of IGGI, we can compre-
hensively understand the direction and magnitude of overall
IGGI fluctuations in Chinese cities, as well as the three sub-
dimensions of economic growth, social equity, and green
development, and we can further take into account the differ-
ence between IGGI, which cities are leading, which cities are
backward, and whether leading or backward cities change, as
well as what is the main distribution characteristic of leading
or backward cities over time by the spatiotemporal dynamic
evolution of IGGI.
According to Fig. 1, the IGGI in Chinese cities showed a
fluctuating upward trend from 2003 to 2020, with its aver-
age rising from 0.038 in 2003 to 0.069 in 2020, with an
annual growth rate of 3.56 percent. The reason for these
results could be China’s emphasis on economic develop-
ment following its Reform and Opening Up policy, as its
economic aggregate and comprehensive strength continue
to rise, ranking among the top of the world’s major econo-
mies. The sustainable economic development has promoted
the significant enhancement of the government’s financial
strength, as well as successfully ensuring the citizens’ liveli-
hood, employment, and insurance, thus fostering the steady
development of the social system. In addition, during the
statistics period, the economic structure has been continu-
ously optimized, the industrial structure has continued to
move toward the middle and high-tech level, the service
industry has grown rapidly, and the improvement of energy
efficiency has promoted green development. It is worth not-
ing that, when compared to other years during the study
period, China’s urban IGGI growth rate decreased in 2014.
One possible explanation is that China has entered a transi-
tion period of development, due to the gradual disappear-
ance of demographic dividend and environmental carrying
capacity close to the ceiling, as a result of the pursuit of
13
Environmental Science and Pollution Research (2023) 30:11025–11045
growth expansion and transformation to quality multidi-
mensional development. Then, after a significant decrease
following 2015, it recovered, and the urban IGGI continued
to demonstrate a persistent increase tendency until the con-
clusion of the statistical period. The likely reason is that
when China reached the new economic normal stage, city
economic development slowed, but social governance and
environmental concerns have greatly improved, indicating
that some beneficial achievements have been achieved in
China’s economic structural transition.
Next, for the spatiotemporal dynamic evolution, sig-
nificant variations existed in the IGGI of different cities in
China from 2003 to 2020 (Fig. 2). The most optimistic level
of IGGI is in the typical economically developed southeast-
ern region and coastal cities, such as the Yangtze River Delta
city cluster. The Pearl River Delta City cluster, in addition,
Beijing, Tianjin, and other municipalities with Independent
Planning Status under the National Social and Economic
Development policy framework also show an ideal level.
Accordingly, cities in economically poor central and west-
ern regions, such as Gansu, Shanxi, Qinghai, and Xinjiang
provinces, showed the least optimistic level of IGGI. From
2003 to 2020, the estimated findings reveal a considerable
improvement in IGGI in most Chinese cities, with a large
increase in the number of most desired and sub-desirable
cities and a significant drop in the number of least hope-
ful cities. Since the Reform and Opening Up program of
1978, China’s economy has seen tremendous expansion,
with a clear “trickle down” impact that has spurred inclu-
sive growth and green growth in the area, as well as relieved
the urban-rural divide and uneven prospects. Furthermore,
economically developed regions have better levels of envi-
ronmental governance and green development, which sup-
ports IGG.
Characteristic of IGGI for different regions
According to China’s economic development pattern, Chi-
nese cities can be divided into three major regions, namely,
an eastern region, a central region, and a western region.
Due to different geographical locations and resource endow-
ments, IGGI may differ from region to region, as well as
differences among cities within the region. In order to
comprehensively interpret the extent of these differences,
the Dagum Gini coefficient was calculated according to
formulas (10)–(16), and the results (shown in Fig. 3) are
classified as the overall Gini coefficient to reflect the whole
differences, the intra-regional Gini coefficient to represent
the differences among cities within each region, and the
inter-regional Gini coefficient to depict the differences in
IGGI between the pairwise levels in the eastern, central, and
western regions, respectively. Furthermore, the contributions
Environmental Science and Pollution Research (2023) 30:11025–11045 11033

Fig. 2  Spatiotemporal distributions of IGGI in Chinese cities for selected years

13
11034
Fig. 3  The spatial difference and contribution rate of inclusive green growth in Chinese cities
Fig. 4  The contributions from sources of spatial difference
of sources of spatial difference to all urban IGGI are com-
puted to demonstrate the impact of diverse differences on
the overall viewpoint (shown in Fig. 4).
During the study period, the overall Gini coefficient
increased from 0.10 in 2003 to 0.19 in 2020, with an aver-
age annual increase rate of 5.29%, indicating that IGGI has
gradually evolved from all-region collaborative improvement
to spatial differential development. And from the comparison
of the three regions, they are significantly different: the east-
ern region has the largest average difference, and the mean
Gini coefficient is 0.18 followed by the western region at 0.15,
while the central region is 0.08, the minimum of all regions;
13
Environmental Science and Pollution Research (2023) 30:11025–11045
as revealed in Fig. 3(a), the intra-regional differences gradu-
ally show a trend of convergence. Then, to take into account
the inter-regional differences, Fig. 3(b) reveals that the mean
inter-regional Gini coefficient is 0.19 between the eastern and
western regions, portraying the greatest differences of all;
followed by the differences between the central and eastern
regions, which has a mean Gini coefficient of 0.17; while the
difference between central and western regions is the least
of all, with a mean Gini coefficient of 0.12; and the inter-
regional Gini coefficient between regions all shows a fluctuat-
ing upward trend. It can be observed in Fig. 4 that, from 2003
to 2019, in the evolution of the source contribution of spatial
differences in IGGI, the inter-regional average contribution
rate is the highest of all, which is 40.49%; followed by the
intra-regional average contribution rate of 30.61%; and the
average contribution rate of hypervariable density is 28.9%,
which is the least, which indicates that the differences between
regions are the main source of spatial differences.
The Dagum Gini coefficient, on the other hand, explains the
differences and origins of IGGI in various areas; it displays the
relative regional differences derived by modifying the fraction
of cities’ mean IGGI, but it cannot indicate the dynamic growth
of absolute IGGI disparities in regions. As a result, this study
extended the investigation through the STKDE of formulas
(17)–(19), and Figure 5(a) depicts the kernel density curve of
the entire urban IGGI distribution. We can see that the kernel
density curve remained in “single peak state” during the study
period, and the width of the peak remained basically unchanged
from 2004 to 2011; afterward, the height of it decreased and
the width of it increased from 2012 to 2020; and the distribu-
tion “left tail,” which showed that the overall increase of urban
IGGI during the study period and the absolute difference of
Environmental Science and Pollution Research (2023) 30:11025–11045 11035

Fig. 5  The kernel density value of IGGI

IGGI between different cities gradually increased since 2012.
And Figure 5(b) depicts the evolutionary process in China’s
eastern region, which shows a significant unilateral peak at the
start of the study period, but that has since vanished, and its
density center has shifted to the left; one possible explanation
for this shift is that high-level cities with IGGI in this region
are improving, but low-level cities are declining, causing the
gap between the IGGI of cities in the eastern region to gradu-
ally widen. Following that, Fig. 5(c) depicts the kernel density
distribution in the central region, and the kernel density curve is
primarily composed of several “peaks” and “secondary peaks,”
with no significant peak difference, indicating a multiple-level
differentiation with minor differences in this region. Finally,
in the western region, as shown in Fig. 5(d), the presence of
a typical peak in 2012 indicates the more significant absolute
differences in this region that year; it vanished afterward, while
the distribution width of the curve increased, indicating that the
difference between cities slowly increased after 2012.
Spatial econometric and scenario simulation
The exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA)
methods
Before constructing a spatial econometric model, ensuring
the spatial relevance of sample data is indispensable. For this
purpose, ESDA is used to demonstrate and visualize spatial
distributions (Kaur 2021), which is a collection of tech-
niques that help identify different patterns of spatial associa-
tion like spatial clusters, spatial outliers, and recommended
spatial regimes. The key methods of ESDA in this paper
are spatial heterogeneity and spatial dependency analysis,
and spatial dependency analysis can be mainly divided into
global spatial autocorrelation and local spatial autocorrela-
tion analysis (Anselin and Cho 2002). The Global Moran’s I,
which is a critical indicator of global spatial autocorrelation,
can be calculated as follows:
� �� �
∑ ∑
n n
Wij Yi − Y Yj − Y
Moran� s I = �
i=1 j=1
� (20)
n � �2 ∑
1 ∑ ∑
n n
n
Yi − Y Wij
j=1 i=1 j=1
where Yi means the observation value of the variable in the
ith city and Wij is the ith row and jth column elements of
the spatial weight matrix. I ∈ [−1, 1], in specific significant
level, if I > 0, means the IGGI is agglomerated in regions;
otherwise, there are differences among regions. The greater
the absolute value of I, the stronger the spatial correlation.
The Global Moran’s I values are shown in Table 2 and
Fig. 6, and the value of the Moran index of IGGI is consid-
erably positive at the confidence level of 0.05, showing that

13
11036 Environmental Science and Pollution Research (2023) 30:11025–11045

Table 2  The Moran’s I of inclusive green index during 2003–2020

Year 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Moran’s I 0.192*** 0.217*** 0.17*** 0.234*** 0.227*** 0.327*** 0.29*** 0.303*** 0.331***
Z 5.475 6.312 5.034 6.751 6.58 9.672 9.258 9.459 9.727
P-value [0.000] [0.000] [0.000] [0.000] [0.000] [0.000] [0.000] [0.000] [0.000]
Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Moran’s I 0.06*** 0.217*** 0.286*** 0.349*** 0.352*** 0.373*** 0.35*** 0.341*** 0.355***
Z 2.634 6.167 7.878 9.471 9.535 10.069 9.459 9.198 9.365
P-value [0.008] [0.000] [0.000] [0.000] [0.000] [0.000] [0.000] [0.000] [0.000]

Fig. 6  The Moran’s I of inclusive green growth index during the statistics period

IGGI of Chinese cities exhibit a significant positive spatial
correlation. In other words, there are neighboring spaces
with high and low levels of IGG between metropolitan
regions. As can be seen from Table 2, the Moran’s I experi-
enced a fluctuation of first increasing, then decreasing, and
then increasing again; in particular, from 2003 to 2008, the
Moran’s I increased in a fluctuating manner, and then began
to decline sharply from 2011, falling to the lowest value of
0.061 in 2012, and then it rose rapidly and reached the high-
est value of 0.373 in 2017. Since then, it has slowly fallen to

13
Environmental Science and Pollution Research (2023) 30:11025–11045 11037

0.355 in 2020, indicating that the spatial agglomeration for Table 3  Descriptive statistics of main variables
different cities of IGGI gradually increased over the whole Variables Definition No. Mean S.D. VIF
study period.
IGGI Dependent variable 5076 0.052 0.522 -
UIS The urban industrial structure 5076 0.338 6.964 5.43
Construction of spatial econometric ACG​ The administrative capacity 5076 0.293 3.218 7.62
of government
IND Industrialization of cities 5076 0.476 9.137 4.91
We have a good understanding of the large geographical
OP Level of opening up in cities 5076 0.025 5.655 4.82
dependency of IGGI in Chinese cities thanks to the study in
HC Human capital of cities 5076 0.062 0.220 2.33
the preceding section. Because a city’s IGGI is not a stand-
FD Financial development level 5076 0.258 8.269 2.24
alone measurement value, nearby regions might influence its
INN Innovation level of cities 5076 6.458 17.73 1.23
change trend and have a considerable geographical spillo-
ver impact. As a result, while examining driving variables,
geographical effect should not be overlooked, and a spatial
econometric model should be used to produce more accurate and in which the geographical distance is described by the
estimation findings and overcome the constraints of the clas- distance between the longitude and latitude of cities, and the
sic panel model, which has possible endogeneity difficulties. data is from The Chinese Urban Yearbook.
Spatial autoregression model (SAM), spatial error model After model selection and spatial weight calculation,
(SEM), and spatial Durbin model are examples of commonly referring to previous studies (Oyinlola and Adedeji 2017;
used spatial panel econometric models (SDM). When the Raheem et al. 2018; Ofori and Asongu 2021; Zhao et al.
spatial dependence of the dependent variable plays a key role 2021), seven possible independent variables on urban IGGI
in the model and has significant spatial correlation, SAM are selected, which are industrial structure (UIS), calculated
is adopted. While SDM is the general form of SAM and by the proportion of the added value of the third industry in
SEM models, including the endogenous interaction effect of the regional GDP; the administrative capacity of the gov-
independent variables and the exogenous interaction effect ernment (ACG​), which is the ratio of public expenditure to
of error terms (Elhorst 2010). Considering the strong spatial gross regional product; the level of industrialization (IND),
correlation between IGGI and its influencing factors, SAM which is calculated by the proportion of industrial added
and SDM (formulas (21) and (22)) are used for estimation in value to GDP; the level of opening up (OP), calculated by
this paper, instead of SEM which cannot reflect the spatial dividing the amount of foreign capital actually utilized by
spillover effect. GDP; human capital (HC), which represents the proportion
( n ) of students in colleges and universities in the urban popu-
∑ lation at the end of the year; financial development (FD),
IGGIit = ai + 𝜌 Wij × yjt + Xit 𝛽 + 𝜀it (21)
j=1
calculated by the balance of deposits and loans of financial
institutions divided by GDP; and the innovation level (INN),
( ) ( n ) calculated by the number of invention patents in the city
∑
n
∑
IGGIit = ai + 𝜌 Wij × yjt + Xit 𝛽 + Wij × Wijt × 𝜃 + 𝜀it divided by 100 R&D personnel. The data of these variables
j=1 j=1 come from The Statistical Yearbook of Chinese Cities, and
(22) their statistical description regression results are shown in
where ­IGGIit is the dependent variable; Xit means the inde- Table 3 and 4, respectively.
pendent variables, i.e., the influencing factors; ρ and θ are
the estimated spatial parameters; Wij × yjt means the endog- The influencing factors of urban IGGI
enous interface effects between the dependent variables; εit
represents the error term; Wij × Wijt denotes the exogenous Given that the SAM model and SDM model were utilized in
interaction outcomes among the independent variables; and this paper, OLS regression was first conducted to test which
Wij is the spatial weight matrix. model is preferred before the regression of the spatial panel
Additionally, in the above models, the determination of econometric model. The ρ coefficient is significant at 1%
spatial weight has a significant impact on the estimation significance level while the two special panel models were
result’s accuracy. Therefore, based on the idea of a gravity selected, which indicated that the spatial econometric model
model, this paper constructed the weight matrix W of the was more favorable. Then, we adopted the Lagrange Multi-
spatial econometric model by comprehensively considering plier (LM) tests and a robust LM to verify if the SDM should
the geographical locations( of different
) cities. In the weight be simplified to a SAM model, and the results showed the
matrix, when i ≠ j, wij = Qi × Qj ∕dij , when i = j, wij = 0,
2 σ2 at its minimum value (0.301) as well as the adjusted
R2 (0.433) and log-likelihood (−3955.78) at their maximum

13
11038 Environmental Science and Pollution Research (2023) 30:11025–11045

Table 4  Estimation results of spatial econometric panel models

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)
OLS SDM SDM SDM SAR SAR SAR

UIS −0.025* 0.006 0.022 0.023* 0.019 0.022* 0.029***

(0.015) (0.020) (0.018) (0.026) (0.016) (0.013) (0.015)
ACG​ −0.011 −0.025 −0.031 −0.028* −0.004 −0.037** −0.045***
(0.012) (0.022) (0.051) (0.015) (0.023) (0.016) (0.012)
IND 0.052*** −0.033 −0.037 −0.044* −0.256** 0.011 −0.039
(0.023) (0.015) (0.028) (0.013) (0.029) (0.017) (0.040)
OP 0.117*** 0.147*** 0.152*** 0.159*** 0.143*** 0.149*** 0.132***
(0.028) (0.032) (0.044) (0.029) (0.033) (0.045) (0.022)
HC 0.149*** 0.206*** 0.066** 0.128*** 0.301*** 0.124*** 0.207***
(0.019) (0.043) (0.039) (0.029) (0.048) (0.032) (0.041)
FD 0.082*** −0.008 0.025 −0.011 0.012 0.022 −0.015
(0.015) (0.019) (0.012) (0.018) (0.037) (0.024) (0.035)
INN 0.457*** 0.037 0.072 0.364*** 0.245** 0.357*** 0.197**
(0.025) (0.048) (0.055) (0.088) (0.063) (0.049) (0.062)
Constant −0.002
(0.012)
ρ 0.244*** 0.244*** 0.253*** 0.371*** 0.275*** 0.290***
(0.064) (0.085) (0.056) (0.077) (0.080) (0.057)
Wald-lag 47.47*** 10.19** 16.89**
[0.000] [0.012] [0.016]
LR-lag 174.26*** 63.38*** 53.78***
[0.000] [0.000] [0.000]
LM-lag 325.15*** 374.28*** 152.86*** 12.02***
[0.000] [0.000] [0.000] [0.000]
R-LM-lag 133.77*** 378.18*** 57.97*** 44.78***
[0.000] [0.000] [0.000] [0.000]
W×X No Yes Yes Yes No No No
City fixed No Yes No Yes Yes No Yes
effects
Year fixed No No Yes Yes No Yes Yes
effects
Adjusted R2 0.385 0.372 0.307 0.433 0.391 0.305 0.338
σ2 0.496 0.591 0.301 0.408 0.592 0.364
Log-likelihood −4103.94 −5266.09 −3955.78 −4188.06 −5301.71 −3996..25
No. of observa- 5076 5076 5076 5076 5076 5076 5076
tions

The coefficients of W × X, city fixed effects, and year fixed effects are not reported to save space. *, **, and *** represent the 10%, 5%, and 1%
significance levels, respectively. Robust standard errors, clustered at the city level, are reported in parentheses. P values in brackets

value while the two-way (both city fixed effect and year fixed
effect) fixed model was selected. As a result, the two-way
fixed SDM model was chosen as the best estimate model for
identifying the primary impact factors of IGGI in this work.
Table 4 shows the model’s estimation results.
It can be observed in Table 4 that, at the significance
level of 10%, the coefficient of industrial structure (UIS) is
positive, and the value is 0.023, indicating that increasing
the proportion of tertiary industry in the regional economy
will boost urban IGGI, which is consistent with previous
research results (Cui et al. 2019). One probable cause for
this influence is that optimizing industrial structure may
minimize energy consumption and pollutants, thereby
enhancing unban green growth levels. In addition, the
aggressive growth of the tertiary industry will encourage
non-agricultural employment, raising people’s earnings,
closing the gap between urban and rural areas, and encour-
aging social inclusion. Then, government administrative
capacity (ACG) and urban industrialization (IND) have
a negative influence on urban IGGI, with the coefficients
of both being significant at the 10% significance level.
Excessive government interference in the economy and
inefficient administrative capacity may impair the mar-
ket’s natural adjustment process, which is not beneficial

13
Environmental Science and Pollution Research (2023) 30:11025–11045 11039

to its long-term growth. Meanwhile, the massive industri- Table 5  Direct and indirect effects of the SDM model with control-
alization process frequently seeks to maximize economic ling two-way fixed effects
rewards, which eventually leads to environmental degra- Variables Total effects Direct effects Indirect effects
dation and pollution (Fu 2021; Ghaffarpasand et al. 2021;
UIS −0.014 0.024* −0.038
Ali et al. 2019).
(0.037) (0.025) (0.066)
Next, the level of opening up in cities (OP) has exerted
ACG​ −0.036* −0.044* 0.008
a significant positive influence on urban IGGI at a 1% sig- (0.025) (0.018) (0.042)
nificant level, which is similar to the previous empirical IND −0.114*** −0.139** 0.025
result (Ofori and Asongu 2021). The possible reason is (0.033) (0.048) (0.059)
that we adopt the proportion of foreign direct investment OP 0.076** 0.145*** −0.069
as the proxy of urban opening-up level. And generally, the (0.059) (0.032) (0.097)
introduction of high-quality foreign investment to cities in HC 0.377*** 0.022*** 0.355***
(0.155) (0.032) (0.162)
a reasonable way may promote local employment, which
FD −0.050 0.022 −0.072
may provide an opportunity for social fairness and eco-
(0.032) (0.011) (0.071)
nomic prosperity. In addition, foreign enterprises may bring
INN 0.408*** 0.328*** 0.080
advanced technology and management experience, and these (0.225) (0.062) (0.248)
advantages will drive the progress of other local domestic
industries. *, **, and *** represent the 10%, 5%, and 1% significance levels,
respectively
Furthermore, human capital (HC) has also shown a sig-
nificant impact on IGGI, passing the 1% significance level
test. The result is in accordance with earlier research (Oyin-
Furthermore, we may divide the spillover impact into
lola and Adedeji 2017; Raheem et al. 2018). There is little
three parts: direct effect, indirect effect, and overall effect.
question that human capital, as a primary input component
Table 5 depicts the estimated outcomes of IGGI-influenc-
of economic growth, has played an indispensable role in
ing variables. It reveals that both the direct and indirect
the economy’s total output level. China, in particular, has
impacts, as well as the overall effects of human capital, are
entered a phase of new economic normal, and future high-
positive at the 1% significance level, indicating that human
tech businesses will arise quickly, while human resources
capital can not only improve local IGGI, but also help to
will gradually become the primary driving force. High-
accelerate IGGI growth in nearby cities (Raheem et al.
quality talent can drive the added value and performance
2018). The flow of talent between cities may provide the
of local industries, as well as technical advancement and
“learning” impact of knowledge and experience, which can
industrial upgrading, as well as enhancing the inclusivity
aid in collaborative advancement between areas. The direct
and green level of the entire city to support green and sus-
impacts are positive at the 1% significant level, whereas the
tainable development. Next, the innovation level (INN) is
indirect effects are negative but not significant. It indicates
also one of the core forces driving IGGI under the signifi-
that the innovation ability of cities does not form a good
cance level of 1%. The process of innovation may produce
“spillover” mechanism, thus driving the linkage innovation
new products, new technologies, or new business models
of surrounding cities, but may have a “siphon” effect, where
(Zhang et al. 2021a; Abid et al. 2022). Innovation-driven
the resources of surrounding cities gather in the local area,
development is an important issue for China to enter the
inhibiting the innovation ability of surrounding regions. The
stage of high-quality development. China will use innovation
direct effect of industrial structure is positive at the 10%
as a long-term strategy to improve its international com-
significance level, but the indirect effect is not significant,
petitive position. Innovation may drive industrial upgrading,
indicating that this factor has not formed a good spillo-
promoting talent cultivation and the level of urban greening,
ver mechanism, and the industry between regions has not
so its influence to IGGI is significant.
formed a good situation of coordinated progress. The total
Finally, the coefficient of financial development is not sig-
effect of government administrative ability is significantly
nificant, which is different from existing studies (Tian et al.
negative. It is worth mentioning that its direct influence is
2021). The reason behind this may be that China’s traditional
unfavorable and large, but its indirect effect is insignificant;
finance has a certain threshold. Small- and medium-sized
it demonstrates that the neighboring cities’ government
enterprises and rural residents often face higher collateral
administrative ability will weaken the local IGGI. The prob-
requirements for financing, which will hinder the inclusive-
able reason is that there may be competition between local
ness of finance; it may further inhibit the green innovation
governments, resulting in “competition” for the resources
of private enterprises and the entrepreneurial of low-income
needed on by urban growth, and the powerful would stifle
people. Therefore, financial development does not play a
the development of the weak.
significant role in promoting urban IGG in China.

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11040 Environmental Science and Pollution Research (2023) 30:11025–11045

Robustness check

In order to ensure the reliability of the benchmark regres-

sion results in the “The influencing factors of urban IGGI”
section, we will further implement the robustness test. Spe-
cifically, we replace the spatial weight matrix used in the
spatial econometric model in the “The influencing factors
of urban IGGI” section. Referring to the study of Huang
et al. (2021), the composite nested matrix considering the
geographical distance and economic distance between cities
is applied. The advantage of this matrix is that it integrates
more abundant information to investigate the object of the
study. The mathematical expression of the composite nested
matrix is as follows:
{
0, i = j
Wij = 1
× 1
, otherwise (23)
Edij ∣pgdpi −pgdpj ∣
Fig. 7  The simulated IGGI during 2021–2060

where Wij denotes the spatial weight matrix; dij represents

the geographical distance between city i and city j, which is
calculated based on the longitude and latitude of each city;
and pgdpi and pgdpj means the per capita GDP of city i and
city j, respectively, which describes the economic distance
between the two cities.
Then, using the spatial Durbin model with city and year
fixed effects from the “The influencing factors of urban
IGGI” section, we regress the seven possible influencing fac-
tors to the urban IGGI. Due to space constraints, the results
of the robustness test are included in Appendixes 1 and
Table 6. The findings show that industrial structure, open-
ing up, human capital, and innovation level all support urban
IGGI; however, government administrative capability has
a negative impact on urban IGGI. The correlation between
industrialization and financial development is insignificant.
This is largely consistent with the benchmark regression
results. As a result, the benchmark regression findings are
dependable and robust.
is, the lower the growth rate of industrial structure is. The
average annual growth rate of government administrative
capacity is −4.32%, −4.46%, −4.56%, −5.01%, and −5.23%
under the above five scenarios, respectively. It indicates that
when IGGI growth rate is reduced, government interven-
tion in the macro-economy should be reduced, while when
economic growth is fast, government intervention should
be increased. The growth rates of the level of opening are
6.98%, 7.12%, 7.87%, 8.24%, and 8.58%, respectively, indi-
cating that the level of opening up should be continuously
expanded. Human capital should increase by 5.59%, 5.82%,
6.31%, 7.17%, and 7.91%, respectively, under the five sce-
narios. Accordingly, the growth rates of innovation level are
15.71%, 16.23%, 16.89%, 17.44%, and 18.82%. Finally, the
financial development will grow by 1.11%, 1.15%, 1.19%,
1.27%, and 1.39% accordingly. And the simulated IGGI dur-
ing 2021–2060 is shown in Fig. 7.

Scenario simulation Conclusion and policy implications

MATLAB software was utilized for data prediction and Conclusion

simulation in order to integrate quantitative and qualitative
policy suggestions. We consider five future scenarios: low-
speed growth of IGGI, i.e., 10% yearly drop; medium and
low growth, i.e., 5% annual decrease, maintaining the exist-
ing condition for natural growth; medium and high growth,
i.e., 5% rise each year; and high growth, i.e., 10% increase
per year. The goal of these five scenarios is to statistically
investigate how to develop appropriate policies to improve
urban IGGI in the near future. For IGGI, the average annual
growth rate of industrialization is −1.23%, −1.27%, −1.32%,
−1.36%, and −1.44%, respectively, under different scenar-
ios of low growth. The more optimistic the future prospect
Based on the Entropy weight-TOPSIS theoretical model, the
IGGI of 282 Chinese cities is projected from 2003 to 2020 in
three dimensions: economic system, social system, and envi-
ronmental system. Following that, we employ geographic
Dagum Gini coefficients and kernel density estimates to
assess the magnitude and trend of regional variations in the
IGGI index in China’s eastern, middle, and western regions.
In addition, we use the spatial panel data model to analyze
the possible influencing elements of IGGI in China, such as
direct impacts and geographical spillover effects. Moreover,
based on the regression results of spatial econometric, this

13
Environmental Science and Pollution Research (2023) 30:11025–11045
paper forecasts five different growth scenarios of urban IGGI
in China in the future, as well as the growth or decline level
of each explanatory variable under the corresponding differ-
ent scenarios. The main conclusion is as follows:
First, urban IGGI in China shows an upward trend of
fluctuation and a trend of spatial agglomeration. Cities with
better performance in IGGI are mainly located in Southeast
China and basic municipalities directly under the central
government, while the performance of western cities is not
very satisfactory. Further, the urban IGGI shows signifi-
cant regional differences, while the IGGI within the three
regions of eastern, central, and western regions reveals a
convergence trend, but inter-regional differences continue
to expand, especially the differences between the eastern
and western regions. Moreover, in terms of the influenc-
ing factors of urban IGGI, industrial structure, opening up,
human capital, and innovation will significantly promote
the development of urban IGGI; while the government’s
administrative capacity and industrialization process will
significantly weaken the city’s IGGI development; and the
impact of financial development on urban IGGI is not signif-
icant. Among them, human capital can not only significantly
improve the local IGGI level, but also have a significant
positive impact on adjacent areas, that is, a spatial spillover
effect. The spatial spillover impact of the other six contrib-
uting elements, on the other hand, is insignificant. Further-
more, according to the results of five scenario simulations,
achieving a high level of IGGI in Chinese cities in the future
is dependent on slowing down the extensive industrialization
process and achieving steady development of high-quality
industrialization, reducing excess intervention in the econ-
omy, increasing the level of opening up, improving human
capital, and promoting urban innovation.
Policy implications
The main policy implications of this study are as follows:
First, cities with high IGGI levels should strive to use their
advantages as a model and promote the development of neigh-
boring cities through exchange and cooperation, in order to
achieve spillover effects. Simultaneously, local government
departments should use the market’s spontaneous mechanism
to conduct supervision and regulation, minimizing excessive
intervention in the real economy and avoiding the resulting
inhibition of IGGI. Second, as seen in earlier chapters, the
influence of human capital on IGGI is not restricted to local
areas, but has large spillover effects. As a result, urban policy
layers should develop long-term talent acquisition plans that
are based on local features, to recruit high-quality people to
work and create enterprises in the local region, as well as to
further promote innovation and the upgrading of the indus-
trial structure, in order to increase the city’s and its neigh-
boring areas’ IGGI level. Furthermore, the city government,
11041
businesses, and research institutions should form a well-inte-
grated “cooperation mechanism” to jointly discuss and address
the environmental degradation caused by the local industri-
alization process, as well as jointly promote the development
of intelligent industry and advanced manufacturing, in order
to mitigate the negative impact of industrialization on IGGI.
Finally, in terms of externalization, the introduction and usage
of high-quality foreign investment may propel the growth of
IGGI in local cities. As a result, urban policy making depart-
ments should gradually introduce high-tech foreign-invested
firms based on local development planning, and further open
up to the outside world. At the same time, as we open up, we
should actively study advanced management expertise and the
operation style of foreign-funded businesses, as well as per-
form a good job in environmental protection supervision to
better support the development of IGGI.
This study inevitably has potential limitations and defi-
ciencies. Due to various reasons, it is mainly reflected in the
following three aspects: firstly, this paper constructs an IGGI
index system including three dimensions of economic system,
social system, and environmental system. However, due to the
length of the article, the main body only reports the status
of the IGGI total index; the situation of sub-dimensions is
not described in detail. Secondly, based on the limitations of
obtaining data, this paper only studies the IGGI of 282 prefec-
ture level cities in China, so the future research looks forward
to obtaining more micro-dimensional data to deeply mine and
discuss the IGGI of industries or enterprises. Finally, in the
chapter of policy recommendations, we simulated the growth
of China’s IGGI from 2021 to 2060, but the actual situation
may be affected by various objective variables. The simulation
results are only for reference. It is expected that future research
can further solve the above limitations.
Appendix 1. The calculation process
of the urban economic resilience
The process to calculate urban economic resilience in the main
manuscript is as follows:
( )
Resisti = ΔYi − ΔE ∕|ΔE| (24)
where Resisti denotes the relative urban economic resil-
ience of city i in year t; ∆Yi represents the actual economic
condition (GDP) of the city i; and ∆E means the predicted
economy condition of the city, which is based on the overall
region’s economic resilience condition.
ΔYi = Yit − Yit−k (25)
[( ) ]
ΔE = Yrt − Yrt−k ∕Yrt−k Yit−k (26)
13
11042 Environmental Science and Pollution Research (2023) 30:11025–11045

where Yit and Yit−k denote the quantitative indicator of city To compare all of the cities, we could conduct the central-
or region i in the year t and the year t − k, while Yrt and Yrt−k ized treatment for the results as follow:
mean the quantitative indicator of economic resilience of
⎛ ∑
n
⎞
overall nation or the region in the year t and the year t − k. ⎜ Resisti ⎟
Formulas (1)–(3) can be further merged as Ri = ⎜Resisti −
i ⎟(−1)p (28)
( t ) ( ) ⎜ n ⎟
Yi − Yit−k ∕Yit−k − Yrt − Yrt−k ∕Yrt−k ⎜ ⎟
t
Resisi = ⎝ ⎠
|( t ) | (27)
| Yr − Yrt−k ∕Yrt−k |
| | where n means the total amount of cities and (−1)p denotes
the coefficient of correction, p = 0.
We could compare the urban economic resilience of each
city by Ri, if Ri > 0, means the economic resilience of city i
is better than the overall region, while if Ri < 0, means the
economic resilience of city i is worse than the overall region.
Appendix 2 The results of robustness check

Table 6  Estimation results of spatial econometric panel models

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)
OLS SDM SDM SDM SAR SAR SAR

UIS −0.036* 0.007 0.025** 0.025** 0.025** 0.026* 0.047***

(0.019) (0.020) (0.012) (0.011) (0.012) (0.015) (0.017)
ACG​ 0.015*** −0.004*** −0.007*** −0.003** −0.003** 0.007*** −0.002
(0.001) (0.001) (0.002) (0.001) (0.001) (0.002) (0.001)
IND 0.070*** −0.027 −0.034 −0.035 −0.105*** 0.018 −0.085*
(0.018) (0.047) (0.034) (0.045) (0.034) (0.021) (0.044)
OP 0.121*** 0.155*** 0.147*** 0.136*** 0.144*** 0.147*** 0.122***
(0.022) (0.043) (0.051) (0.033) (0.036) (0.048) (0.028)
HC 0.162*** 0.225*** 0.073** 0.176*** 0.365*** 0.118*** 0.216***
(0.013) (0.068) (0.036) (0.056) (0.077) (0.030) (0.057)
FD −0.006*** 0.004*** −0.005 −0.001 0.003 −0.005 −0.002*
(0.001) (0.001) (0.002) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001)
INN 0.453*** 0.057 0.325*** 0.068*** 0.156** 0.330*** 0.135**
(0.032) (0.072) (0.091) (0.018) (0.061) (0.066) (0.059)
Constant −0.000 (0.011)
ρ 0.247*** 0.245*** 0.456*** 0.376*** 0.277*** 0.094** (0.047)
(0.065) (0.085) (0.037) (0.077) (0.079)
Wald-lag 48.06*** 12.50* 18.84**
[0.000] [0.051] [0.004]
LR-lag 175.06*** 64.19*** 44.88***
[0.000] [0.000] [0.000]
LM-lag 486.388*** 391.869*** 154.549*** 13.212***
[0.000] [0.000] [0.000] [0.000]
R-LM-lag 158.021*** 389.210*** 59.247*** 47.158***
[0.000] [0.000] [0.000] [0.000]
W×X No Yes Yes Yes No No No
City fixed effects No Yes No Yes Yes No Yes
Year fixed No No Yes Yes No Yes Yes
effects
Adjusted R2 0.390 0.371 0.414 0.428 0.345 0.404 0.340
σ2 0.321 0.522 0.305 0.327 0.528 0.307
Log-likelihood −4106.601 −5271.179 −3956.750 −4194.130 −5303.276 −3979.189
No. of observa- 5076 5076 5076 5076 5076 5076 5076
tions

The coefficients of W × X, city fixed effects, and year fixed effects are not reported to save space. *, **, and *** represent the 10%, 5%, and 1% sig-
nificance levels, respectively. Robust standard errors, clustered at the city level, are reported in parentheses. P values in brackets

13
Environmental Science and Pollution Research (2023) 30:11025–11045
Acknowledgements The authors are grateful to the editor and anony-
mous reviewers for their insightful and helpful comments.
Author contribution Shuangshuang Fan focuses on the conceptual-
ization, methodology, software, and writing—original draft. Hong-
yun Huang focuses on conceptualization, methodology, software, and
investigation. William Mbanyele focuses on supervision, reviewing,
and editing. Zihao Guo focuses on conceptualization, supervision, and
funding acquisition. Chenxi Zhang focuses on reviewing and editing.
Funding This work was supported by the National Key R&D Pro-
gram of China (Grant no. 2018YFA0703900) and the Major Project of
National Social Science Foundation of China (Grant no. 19ZDA091).
Data availability The datasets used and/or analyzed during the cur-
rent study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable
request.
Declarations
Ethics approval and consent to participate Not applicable.
Consent for publication Not applicable.
Conflict of interest The authors declare no competing interests.
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