Journal of Cleaner Production 427 (2023) 139261

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Journal of Cleaner Production

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jclepro

Trade-offs under pressure? Development of urban green space under

economic growth and governance
Jing Huang , Xingbang Wang , Dong Zhang , Zhengfeng Zhang *, Jinming Yan , Fangzhou Xia
School of Public Administration and Policy, Renmin University of China, Beijing, People’s Republic of China

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Handling Editor: Giovanni Baiocchi Urban green space (UGS) is susceptible to shocks from multiple sources, including the economy and governance.
It is now a global policy challenge to ensure the sustainability and livability of cities. Nevertheless, available
Keywords: studies have reached contradictory conclusions regarding the economic impact on UGS. Using statistical data,
Urban green space empirical studies in the Chinese context failed to differentiate between built-up areas and municipalities and
Economic growth
neglected data matching within the study area. To address these gaps, this study explored the relationship be­
Governance
tween the economy and UGS at various quantiles by constructing unconditional quantile regression (UQR)
City resilience
models using panel data from 283 Chinese cities (2001–2019). The relationship between economic growth and
the total area of UGS in the municipal zone (ugs_area) and UGS coverage of built-up areas (ugs_rate) was generally
positive and statistically significant, according to the analysis. Furthermore, the study observed heterogeneity in
the relationship between the economy and ugs_area and ugs_rate across different quantiles, indicating a growing
presence of UGS appearing in the periphery of built-up areas. Cities strived to increase ugs_area and ugs_rate to
meet the National Garden City (NGC) standards. After NGC designation, ugs_area and ugs_rate decreased signif­
icantly. Moreover, the positive correlation coefficient between the economy and UGS in provincial capital cities
was considerably greater than in non-provincial capital cities. This study contributes to UGS research by
revealing the nonlinear impact of driving factors. In addition to distinguishing between UGS in municipal dis­
tricts and those specifically in built-up areas, this study quantifies the impact of governance variables. The study
provides a valuable resource for planning UGS in China and promoting harmonious integration of economic
growth, governance, and UGS in rapidly developing cities.

1. Introduction
Over two-thirds of the world’s population is projected to reside in
urban areas by 2050 (UN, 2014), making cities the primary living spaces
for a significant portion of the global population. Cities face the dual
challenges of global warming and the urban heat island effect (Jim,
2013), necessitating a focus on sustainability and livability in urban
policy-making (Haaland & van den Bosch, 2015; Richards et al., 2017;
Wolch et al., 2014). This involves addressing issues such as ensuring
adequate green infrastructure and enhancing resilience to climate
change, food insecurity, and limited resources (Demuzere et al., 2014; Li
et al., 2018; Lovell and Taylor, 2013).
Urban green space (UGS) offers solutions to urban issues such as air
pollution and the heat island effect (Boulton et al., 2020), and provides a
multitude of benefits including diverse ecosystem services, promoting
social integration, and enhancing the physical and mental well-being of
residents (Afriyanie et al., 2020; Byrne et al., 2015; Ghahramani et al.,
2021; Kardan et al., 2015; Seaman et al., 2010). Goal 3 (“Good Health
and Well-being”), Goal 11 (“Sustainable Cities and Communities”), Goal
13 (“Climate Action”), and Goal 15 (“Life on Land”) of the 2030 Agenda
for Sustainable Development, adopted by all United Nations Member
States in 2015, is closely related to the health of UGS (UN, 2015).
Notably, city governments worldwide face the challenge of
balancing economic development and UGS (Haaland & van den Bosch,
2015). Cities with lower levels of urbanization tend to prioritize eco­
nomic development over construction of UGS (Pincetl and Gearin,
2005). In highly urbanized cities, on the other hand, officials are more
inclined to develop UGS in areas outside the densely populated urban
core (Chang et al., 2017; Puplampu and Boafo, 2021; Yasumoto et al.,
2014). However, this approach may lead to decreased accessibility to

* Corresponding author. Room 403 Qiushi Building, Renmin University of China, Zhongguancundajie Road, Haidian District, Beijing, 100872, People’s Republic of
China.
E-mail address: zhangzhengfeng@ruc.edu.cn (Z. Zhang).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.139261
Received 2 May 2023; Received in revised form 9 August 2023; Accepted 11 October 2023
Available online 11 October 2023
0959-6526/© 2023 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
J. Huang et al.
UGS and insufficient UGS in densely populated areas. Additionally,
many cities face the problem of unequal distribution of UGS (Chen et al.,
2022), where access to UGS varies based on socioeconomic status and
race (Rigolon et al., 2018). This disparity severely affects the well-being
of urban residents, promotes environmental injustice, and poses a sig­
nificant obstacle to achieving sustainable and livable urban
development.
In the context of China, there is a prevalent disparity in UGS, with
larger cities exhibiting lower inequality compared to smaller cities
(Chen et al., 2022). Overall, Chinese cities have become greener (Zhou
et al., 2018). Periodicity (Fang et al., 2023), coexistence of greening and
browning (Wang et al., 2023), highly dynamic changes, and changes in
small patches characterize the transformation process (Yang et al.,
2014). Urbanization and industrialization associated with economic
development drive the dynamic and phased changes in UGS (Ye and Wu,
2014; Zhou et al., 2018). Governance tools such as urban renewal pro­
mote the coexistence of greening and browning as well as the occurrence
of UGS changes in small patches through infill UGS development (Qian
et al., 2015; Wang et al., 2023; Zhou et al., 2018).
Economic development poses a threat to UGS within cities. It is
widely acknowledged that cities at different stages of economic devel­
opment vary in their development priorities (Haaland & van den Bosch,
2015; Spyra et al., 2021). However, the heterogeneous effects of eco­
nomic development on UGS have not been thoroughly investigated
(Wang et al., 2023; Wu et al., 2021). Urban development is closely
connected with economic growth, and UGS plays a crucial role in this
relationship. During the early stages of urban expansion and rapid ur­
banization, frequent land use changes and urban construction often
result in limited space for UGS (Zhou and Wang, 2011), a phenomenon
observed in cities worldwide (Haase et al., 2017; Jim, 1998). As eco­
nomic growth and urbanization reach a relatively stable phase, the
positive effects of economy (including funding support) begin to emerge
on UGS construction. Due to limited available land in the urban core
area, UGS development predominantly occurs in the urban periphery
(Peng et al., 2016; Portillo-Quintero et al., 2012). Nevertheless, there are
studies with contradictory findings (Qian et al., 2015; Van Den Hoek
et al., 2014). Studies focusing on Chinese cities have shown significant
greening characteristics in the long-term built up areas as well as
non-built-up areas, while newly developed areas exhibit browning pat­
terns (Wu et al., 2021; Zhou et al., 2023). Consequently, it is necessary to
differentiate the impact of economic growth on UGS in different regions
of the cities. Most empirical studies using Chinese statistical data failed
to account for these spatial differences (Chen et al., 2017; Zhang et al.,
2021), which may have resulted in estimation errors.
Previous research intended to inform urban governance policy often
focused on qualitative or small-scale case studies (Boulton et al., 2020;
Ding et al., 2022). These studies highlight that cities at different stages of
development exhibit varying degrees of understanding and planning for
UGS (Spyra et al., 2021), leading to policy orientations and trade-offs
that often vary with the quantity of UGS (Sun et al., 2020). Cities with
greater political representation face more pressure to incentivize UGS
development, while cities with lower political status have more auton­
omy and face less external pressure (Chen et al., 2017). Furthermore, the
setting of national UGS standards may stimulate UGS growth at first, but
this effect may be short-lived due to limited financial support and a lack
of political will among local governments to enforce regulations (Lar­
a-Valencia and Garcia-Perez, 2015; Sandstrom, 2002).
Previous studies have demonstrated that UGS is influenced by mul­
tiple factors, including the economy and governance (Bardhan et al.,
2016; Fan et al., 2016; Zhou and Wang, 2011). These effects may also
exhibit non-linear relationships. This study uses the STIRPAT model to
investigate the growth of UGS under multiple pressures (York et al.,
2003). The STIRPAT model is derived from the IPAT model, which
specifies that environmental impact (I) is a product of three key drivers:
population (P), affluence (A), and technology (T), as represented by I =
PAT (Stern et al., 1992). Additionally, the STIRPAT model considers the
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Journal of Cleaner Production 427 (2023) 139261
non-linear effects of driving factors and can be used to test empirical
hypotheses, as expressed by Ii = aPbi Aci Tid ei (Dietz and Rosa, 1994).
When determining the econometric model, normalized regression
models fail to capture the differential effects of driving factors on UGS
across various observation values (Wang et al., 2023), and are suscep­
tible to outliers (Koenker and Hallock, 2001). A quantile regression
model is more suitable for addressing the research issue (Firpo et al.,
2009), as it can reveal the effects of economic and governance factors on
UGS at different observation values (Opoku and Aluko, 2021; Anwar
et al., 2021), and provide more intuitive and actionable recommenda­
tions for UGS development (Gu and You, 2022). In UGS reaearch, the
application of well-fitting quantile regression models is relatively
limited. An additional consideration, the National Garden City (NGC)
rating, holds significant implications for UGS development and urban
expansion in China (Zhang et al., 2021), yet its influence had not been
quantitatively assessed. Given that the timing of cities becoming or no
longer being NGC is not consistent (Ding et al., 2022), the Event Study
Approach (ESA) is well-suited to conducting in-depth quantitative
research on this topic (Ball and Brown, 1968; Fama et al., 1969),
providing insights for UGS development.
The impact of the economy on UGS may vary depending on the level
of economic growth stages or the quantity of UGS (Wu et al., 2021).
Nevertheless, previous studies normalized results to characterize the
impact of the economy on UGS, and empirical research using statistical
data in the context of China did not differentiate between spatial dif­
ferences in built-up areas and city districts or match data for the research
units. Consequently, the applicability and accuracy of the study’s find­
ings and conclusions may be limited. Given the significant role of
municipal governments in UGS development in China, it is relevant to
investigate how these governments manage and provide UGS despite
economic and political pressures. Few studies considered economic and
governance factors jointly. Furthermore, available studies on the impact
of governance on UGS tended to be qualitative and failed to quantify the
specific effectiveness of local government in developing UGS (Boulton
et al., 2020).
This study aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the interac­
tion between economic growth and UGS, in addition to investigating the
impact of national and local governance on UGS. Long-term and large-
sample panel data was utilized to differentiate the spatial differences
of UGS between built-up areas and municipal districts. The study
quantitatively measured the specific impact of national urban greening
initiatives and other governance variables on UGS. Additionally, quan­
tile regression analysis was conducted on the corresponding indicators.
UGS is interconnected with multiple United Nations Sustainable
Development Goals, making the findings of this study a valuable
resource for guiding decision-making on UGS development in China and
providing practical insights for the harmonized progress of economic
growth, government governance, and UGS in countries and cities un­
dergoing rapid economic and social transformations.
The study addresses the following scientific inquiries (1) What is the
relationship between economic growth, governance, and UGS? Does this
relationship differ across varying UGS? (2) In 1992, China launched the
NGC rating as an incentive for cities to improve their green infrastruc­
ture. The study aims to investigate the dynamics of UGS transformation
following a city’s designation as an NGC. (3) Given the significant dif­
ferences in economic growth stages and political representation between
provincial capitals and non-capital cities, does being a “provincial cap­
ital” influence the relationship between economic growth, governance,
and UGS?
The paper is structured as follows: Section 2 presents the background
and theoretical analysis. Section 3 describes the study area, research
methods, and data sources used. Section 4 provides the empirical find­
ings for the research questions, while Section 5 compares and discusses
the empirical results of this study with existing studies. The final section
concludes with a summary of the study’s findings, policy
J. Huang et al.
recommendations, and a discussion of its limitations.
2. Theoretical analysis framework
2.1. Interaction mechanisms between economy and UGS
In both Chinese cities and cities around the world, there are in­
teractions between economic development and UGS. The Environmental
Kuznets Curve suggests that the impact of economic growth on the
environment exhibits stage-like characteristics (Kuznets, 1955). During
early stages of economic growth, scale effects lead to a rapid concen­
tration of labor resources in built-up areas (Grossman and Krueger,
1993), resulting in urbanization encroaching upon existing UGS (Mao
et al., 2018; van Vliet, 2019), and booming industrialization further
compromising UGS availability. Subsequently, as economic growth,
population growth, and urbanization continue to progress relatively
steadily, there is a scarcity of UGS areas. Consequently, cities begin to
prioritize the development of UGS, with particular emphasis on UGS
construction in built-up areas (Wu et al., 2021). Economic investment
serves as the fundamental catalyst for this expansion (Wang et al.,
2023). The transition from resource-intensive industries to
capital-intensive industries acts to deterrent further depletion of UGS
(Jahanger et al., 2022), while advancements in environmental protec­
tion technology promote the preservation of UGS (Hossain et al., 2022),
ultimately leading to an increase in UGS area (Wyckhuys et al., 2022).
As infrastructure facilities continue to fill up the built-up areas, the
availability of land for UGS construction in dense built-up areas becomes
limited. Consequently, cities gradually expand their efforts to construct
new UGS outside the built-up area (Peng et al., 2016).
UGS affects urban economic development by reducing costs and
influencing economic benefits. The reduction of costs primarily revolves
around the provision of ecosystem services value. UGS serves as crucial
carbon sinks capable of absorbing exhaust gas and harmful substances
and purifying air and water sources, thus mitigating urban medical and
social costs (Nowak and Crane, 2002). By playing the role of an urban
“sponge,” UGS helps mitigate flooding disasters and alleviate the urban
heat island effect, leading to energy conservation (Aboelata and Sod­
oudi, 2020; Li et al., 2017a). Consequently, UGS enhances urban
ecological resilience and reduces costs associated with urban mainte­
nance and repairs (Pinto et al., 2022). From the perspective of economic
benefits, the impact of UGS on the economy is two-fold. On one hand,
UGS can contribute to urban economic development by improving the
living environment, attracting workforce, generating income from
tourism, and increasing property values (Vujcic and
Tomicevic-Dubljevic, 2018; Wolch et al., 2014). On the other hand, the
development of UGS can lead to increased surrounding property prices,
potentially excluding low-income or marginalized communities who
cannot afford the rising living costs and forcing them to move away from
green areas (Wolch et al., 2014; Eckerd, 2011; Conway et al., 2010). This
issue of environmental gentrification reduces residents’ sense of place
and the city’s appeal, leading to labor outmigration and a decline in the
urban economy (Anguelovski et al., 2019; Schusler et al., 2023). Finally,
UGS, reduces the land available for commercial purposes, which may
also have negative economic implications.
The impact of UGS on economic development is indirect and subtle
compared to the effect of the economy on UGS. Therefore, this article
focuses on examining the impact of the economy on UGS in the empir­
ical section. Building upon this premise, we propose Hypothesis 1:
Economic growth exerts a significant impact on UGS, and the impact of
economic growth on UGS varies depending on the quantity or propor­
tion of UGS.
2.2. Mechanisms by which national governance and urban governance
influence UGS
Governance at the national and city levels have a significant impact
3
Journal of Cleaner Production 427 (2023) 139261
on UGS (Boulton et al., 2020). National governments influence UGS
through policy-making and management, which involve enacting rele­
vant laws and regulations, and establishing specialized UGS manage­
ment agencies and systems to regulate and guide UGS construction and
management across various cities. City governments are responsible for
providing UGS within their jurisdiction. City-level governance plays a
crucial role in regulating UGS construction and management through
various measures, including urban planning, providing land and funding
support, and facilitating public participation and coordination (Erlwein
et al., 2023). For example, government-formulated city planning and
land use plans are instrumental in determining the site selection, layout,
and functional positioning of UGS (da Silva et al., 2023). The availability
of land for UGS expansion and the allocation of funding are crucial for
UGS construction and maintenance (Bardhan et al., 2016), impacting
the quantity and spatial layout of UGS.
At the same time, local governments face the challenge of balancing
economic development with the improvement of UGS. Local govern­
ments are under pressure to achieve economic performance-based
evaluations (Zhou, 2007), as well as pressure to maintain a minimum
quantity or percentage of UGS, which is reinforced by UGS-related
awards. Cities with different quantity or proportions of UGS exhibit
distinct perceptions and planning orientations towards UGS (Spyra
et al., 2021; Sun et al., 2020), which in turn influences their
decision-making processes (Sun et al., 2020). For instance, city gov­
ernments with limited UGS may face pressure to improve environmental
performance and expand UGS supply, while also confronting economic
performance pressures that prioritize economic development. The final
decisions are determined by striking a balance between the pressures of
economic performance and environmental performance. Other factors
such as the city’s political status can also influence the decision-making
process of UGS development by local government (Chen et al., 2017).
Drawing on the above analysis, we propose hypotheses 2 and 3.
Hypothesis 2: The impact of urban government policy-making on UGS
varies significantly depending on the quantity or proportion of UGS.
Hypothesis 3: The impact of national governance on UGS shows signif­
icant variations based on the quantity or proportion of UGS.
Based on the above theoretical analysis, the theoretical framework of
this paper was constructed, as shown in Fig. 1.
3. Study area and analytical strategy
3.1. Study area
283 prefecture-level cities in China were selected as the study area.
According to data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS,
2022), China’s GDP grew from 10,028 billion yuan to 114,367 billion
yuan between 2000 and 2021, representing a ten-fold increase in GDP
over 21 years. This economic growth attracted a large portion of the
population to urban areas, with the urban population to total population
ratio increasing from 36.09% to 64.72% (NBS, 2001, 2021 Government
Work Report, 2022). The influx of people into cities created a growing
demand for UGS, which increased from 1,321,900 ha in 2004 to 3,312,
200 ha in 2020 (NBS, 2022). Simultaneously, economic growth led to
urban expansion, with significant investments in fixed assets, totaling
from 2622.2 billion yuan to 54,454.7 billion yuan in 2020 (NBS, 2022),
and extensive infrastructure projects resulting in the dismantling of
existing UGS (Puplampu and Boafo, 2021; Wang et al., 2020). Given
these circumstances, Chinese cities provide a suitable context for
exploring how UGS changes under evolving economic, governance,
demographic, and natural conditions.
By the end of 2019, China consisted of 34 provincial-level adminis­
trative regions (including 4 municipalities, 23 provinces, 5 autonomous
regions, and 2 special administrative regions) and 334 prefecture-level
administrative regions (including 294 prefecture-level cities, 7 pre­
fectures, 30 autonomous regions, and 3 leagues). Owing to data limi­
tation issues, 51 cities (mainly autonomous prefectures) were excluded
J. Huang et al.
Fig. 1. Theoretical analysis framework.
from the study, and the analysis focused on 283 prefecture-level cities in
mainland China as the study area. Except for the Tibet Autonomous
Region, the 283 prefecture-level cities include the provincial capitals of
all other provinces (autonomous regions) and all municipalities,
covering 85% of China’s prefecture-level administrative regions. The
study area is shown in Fig. 2.
Fig. 2. Study area.
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Journal of Cleaner Production 427 (2023) 139261
3.2. Analytical strategy
A quantitative approach was adopted for this study. The analysis
started by incorporating variables affecting UGS, following the STIRPAT
model (Dietz and Rosa, 1994). Next, an unconditional quantile regres­
sion (UQR) model based on the recentered influence function (RIF) was
employed to explore the phase characteristics between urban economic
growth and UGS, as proposed by Firpo et al. (2009). The changes in UGS
before and after the city was named as an NGC were investigated using
the Event Study Approach (ESA), as presented by Fama et al. (1969).
Finally, an examination of the heterogeneity results was conducted ac­
cording to the criterion of whether a given city was a non-capital city
(Fig. 3).
3.2.1. STIRPAT model variations and variable settings
The IPAT identity is a widely recognized formula used to analyze the
environmental impact of human activities. It states that the environ­
mental impact (I) is a product of three key drivers: population (P),
affluence (A), and technology (T), represented as I = PAT (York et al.,
2003). However, the IPAT model cannot be empirically tested. In
response, Dietz and Rosa (1994) introduced a stochastic model known as
the STIRPAT model, where the environmental impact is expressed as Ii =
aPbi Aci Tid ei . The STIRPAT model accounts for the nonlinear effects of the
driving factors. Dietz and Rosa (1994) introduced the logarithmic
STIRPAT model, which incorporated the concept of elasticity co­
efficients to analyze the environmental stress caused by CO2 emissions
and energy footprint. This model examined the driving forces behind
environmental stress by considering factors such as population size, GDP
per capita, industrial structure, and urbanization. The STIRPAT model,
along with the elasticity coefficients, provide a framework for testing the
impact of changes in each driving force on environmental pressure (York
et al., 2003). This study applies STIRPAT as the benchmark model to
gauge the effects of economic growth and other factors on UGS. The
logarithmic STIRPAT model is shown below.
log Ii = a + b(log Pi ) + c(log Ai ) + d(log Ci ) + e(log Ti ) (1)
Where Ii is the UGS of city i, Pi represents the demographic factors of city
J. Huang et al. Journal of Cleaner Production 427 (2023) 139261

Fig. 3. Methodology framework.

i, Ai denoted the economic factors of city i, Ci and Ti are social and unconditional quantile by integration. The UQR model based on the RIF
political variables of city i that may lead to impacts, and A, P, C, and T is set as follows:
can be further decomposed (Cramer, 1996; Dietz and Rosa, 1994). In ∫ ( ( )⃒ )
this study, two commonly used indicators, UGS area and UGS coverage
∂E RIF qτ , y, Fy ⃒X
UQPE (τ) = dFX (3)
of built-up areas, were used as dependent variables (Li et al., 2017b, ∂X
2023a; Xu et al., 2020a; Zhang et al., 2023). To better understand the
Where RIF (qτ , y, Fy ) denotes the in-centered influence function corre­
driving forces behind these variables, the population variable P was
sponding to the τ -quantile of Fy , and qτ is the unconditional quantile of
decomposed into household registration population, the natural growth
Y, satisfying Fy (qτ ) = τ. fy (qτ ) is the density function of Y. UQPE(τ) is the
rate, and the ratio of secondary and tertiary employment to the total
unconditional quantile bias effect.
population. Similarly, the affluence variable A was decomposed into
GDP per capita, the share of secondary industry added value, land ur­
3.2.3. Event Study Approach (ESA)
banization, road network density, and carbon emissions. The variables
In policy effect studies, both Difference-In-Differences (DID) and ESA
of governance framework and natural conditions were used to represent
are commonly used to estimate the average treatment effect of a policy
C and T, respectively.
by comparing the coefficients of the outcome variable between the
treatment group and the control group (Ball and Brown, 1968; Beck
3.2.2. Unconditional quantile regression (UQR)
et al., 2010). DID necessitates stringent constraints on the timing of
To clarify the specific mechanisms by which economic growth and
exogenous events and their conclusions. In contrast, ESA can estimate
governance act on UGS, an UQR model was used to explore the differ­
the treatment effects in non-randomized settings when units experience
ential impact of economic growth on UGS growth at different stages
treatment at different times or exit the treatment group (Fama et al.,
(Koenker and Hallock, 2001). Since the results of Conditional Quantile
1969). The key independent variable of interest, “NGC designation,” has
Regression (CQR) are based on too many (or even unnecessary) indi­
different starting and ending points for different cities. Therefore, ESA is
vidual characteristics, using CQR does not provide the desired outcomes
well-suited for this investigation.
if we wish to know the general marginal effects of the explanatory
The core of ESA is to utilize events as natural experiments and infer
variables, regardless of other observed characteristics of the sample.
the causal impact of events on variables by comparing data before and
Therefore, the estimation was performed using an UQR based on a RIF,
after the events. The specific formula is set as follows:
which complements and extends the CQR and has important applica­
tions in labor economics and policy evaluation. Yit = αt + γlistit + b(log Pit ) + c(log Ait ) + d(log Cit ) + e(log Tit ) + εit (4)
RIF is a robust estimator first introduced by Firpo et al. (2009) in
quantile regression to analyze the effect of small changes in the distri­ Where Yit is the green area or green coverage of built-up area of city i at
bution of explanatory variables on the quantile of the unconditional time point t, listit is whether city i is an NGC in year t, and listit = 1 means
distribution. that city i is an NGC in year t. Other variables definitions are the same as
Equation (1). By comparing the values of Yit for cities with and without
( ) τ − 1(y ≤ qτ )
RIF qτ , y, Fy = qτ + (2) the NGC designation, this study assesses the causal impact of the NGC
fy (qτ )
rating on UGS.
For the above RIF, a linear model was used to obtain the

5
J. Huang et al.
3.2.4. Measures
3.2.4.1. Dependent variables. The study used UGS area (ugs_area), a
commonly referenced dependent variable in the literature, for the
analysis. ugs_area encompasses the total area of various green spaces
within the municipal zone, including park green space, green spaces
attached to workplaces, residential green space, green space for pro­
duction, protective green space, and scenic gardens. Additionally, the
spatial distribution of UGS was considered by including the indicator of
green coverage of built-up areas (ugs_rate) as an additional dependent
variable, recognizing the potential disparity in UGS distribution be­
tween built and unbuilt areas within the municipal area.
The range of the two dependent variables is shown in Fig. 4. NDVI
(Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), a widely used vegetation
index with spatial information, is utilized in this study to demonstrate
the spatial variability of the two dependent variables. The green back­
ground map in Fig. 4 represents NDVI distribution of cities in different
regions of China in 2015. The yellow line delineates the boundary of the
urban area, representing the range of ugs_area. The blue line represents
the boundary of the built-up area within the urban area, signifying the
range of ugs_rate.
3.2.4.2. Main independent variables. Variables characterizing the econ­
omy are the main independent variables of interest. GDP per capita (GDP
per capita) denotes the level of a city’s economic growth, while the share
of secondary industry added value (second_gdp) measures the structure
of the city’s economy. Urbanization is represented by the ratio of the
built-up area to the administrative land area (urbanization), reflecting
the potential impact of rapid construction land expansion on UGS pro­
vision. Road density, measured by the ratio of the built-up road area in
the municipal district to the administrative land area (road_density),
provides an indication of how developed the city’s transportation
network is. Carbon emission (carbon_emission) represents a negative
externality of economic growth, with UGS serving as an important
carbon sink. In terms of national policies and local government de­
cisions, the designation of a National Garden City (NGC) was used to
indicate the degree of national policy intervention, and the annual
supply of park and green space (supply) to determine the availability of
land for building UGS.
3.2.4.3. Control variables. For demographic influences, the urban
household registration population (pop) and natural growth rate (pop_­
rate) reflect the degree of population concentration in the city, and the
ratio of non-farm employment to the total population (nonfarm_employ)
characterizes the employment structure of the population and reflects
the distribution of workers. Finally, the study selected the average
annual precipitation (precipitation), average temperature (temperature),
and average humidity (humidity) to control the impact of natural con­
ditions on UGS.
3.2.5. Data sources
Table 1 lists variables used in the study, along with their descriptions
Fig. 4. Schematic diagram of the ranges corresponding to ugs_area and ugs_rate.
6
Journal of Cleaner Production 427 (2023) 139261
and data sources. Data for the study were categorized in four broad
areas: the economy, governance, population, and natural conditions.
Subject to the availability of certain variables, the sample period is
2001–2019. All variables except those related to CO2 emissions and
natural conditions are municipality-wide statistical data, so data is
matched at the unit of analysis. To account for the price effect, GDP per
capita data was deflated to constant prices using the GDP per capita
index of the respective province obtained from the China Regional
Economic Statistics Yearbook. To address non-normal distribution bias,
all variables were logarithmically transformed in this paper. To consider
potential lag effects of socioeconomic factors on UGS development and
minimize estimation errors, the dependent variables, ugs_area and ugs_­
rate, were lagged by one period in all models.
4. Empirical results
4.1. UQR results
The study set five quantiles at intervals of 20% (10%, 30%, 50%,
70%, 90%) and analyzed the regression coefficients at extreme values
(10% and 90%). This approach comprehensively captures the hetero­
geneity and nonlinearity of the effects of driving factors on UGS across
different quantiles. Table 2 shows the two-way fixed effects model
regression results for the entire sample. Table 3 presents the UQR results
at the 10th, 30th, 50th, 70th, and 90th quartiles of ugs_area (model 3–7)
and ugs_rate (model 8–12). In general, the two sets of results were
comparable. However, in the OLS regression results with ugs_area as the
dependent variable, the economic impact on UGS was not statistically
significant, highlighting the necessity of employing quantile regression.
The subsequent analysis focuses on the findings from the UQR results.
All models passed the F-test, indicating their validity, and the co­
efficients of GDP per capita were statistically significant at the 1% level.
Notably, some models (model 8 and model 12) with ugs_rate as the
dependent variable had lower goodness of fit. This may be due to the
small sample size, suggesting that these models can only explain a small
portion of local fluctuations, and that the estimated coefficients may not
be precise.
Economic growth (GDP per capita) had a significant, positive rela­
tionship with both ugs_area and ugs_rate, with the strength of this rela­
tionship varying across quantiles. As the quantile increased, the positive
correlation coefficient between economic growth and ugs_area grew
gradually, while the positive correlation coefficient between economic
growth and ugs_rate decreased over time. This means that an increase in
GDP per capita leads to a widening gap in ugs_area between cities, which
raises concerns about UGS inequality. Significant variation was also
observed in the relationship between land urbanization rate (urbaniza­
tion) and ugs_area and ugs_rate. The correlation coefficient between land
urbanization rate and ugs_area was significantly positive, while the
correlation coefficient between the land urbanization rate and ugs_rate
was always significantly negative, although the negative correlation
weakened as the quantiles increased. This observation can be attributed
to the infill and dense urban development, where limited area for UGS
J. Huang et al. Journal of Cleaner Production 427 (2023) 139261

Table 1
Variable name, description, and data source.
Type Variables Description Sources

UGS ugs_area Total area of UGS within the municipal districts China City Construction Statistical Yearbook
ugs_rate UGS coverage within the built-up areas of the municipal districts
Economy GDP per capita GDP per capita at constant price China Regional Economic Statistical Yearbook, China Financial
Yearbook
second_gdp Share of secondary industry added value China Financial Yearbook
urbanization Land urbanization rate, the ratio of built-up area to administrative China Urban Statistical Yearbook
area
road_density Road network density, the ratio of road area to administrative area
carbon_emission CO2 emissions Atmospheric Composition Analysis Group of Dalhousie University,
Canada
Population pop Household registration population China Regional Economic Statistical Yearbook
pop_rate Natural growth rate of population China Urban Statistical Yearbook
nonfarm_employ The proportion of employment in non-farm industry
Governance NGC National Garden City Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of China
supply Annual supply of park and green space China Land Market Website (www.landchina.com)
Natural precipitation Average annual rainfall National Meteorological Information Center of China
Conditions Temperature Average annual temperature
humidity Average annual humidity

Table 2
Two-way fixed effects model regression results.
ugs_area(1) GDP per capita second_gdp urbanization road_density carbon_emission pop pop_rate nonfarm_employ

0.056 0.045 0.236*** 0.152*** 0.379*** 0.142*** 0.046* − 0.183

(0.046) (0.065) (0.047) (0.049) (0.067) (0.036) (0.025) (0.209)

NGC supply precipitation temperature humidity Constant Adjusted R2 F

0.052*** − 0.001 0.040 0.290 − 0.010 6.496*** 0.896 15.510

(0.019) (0.004) (0.046) (0.216) (0.203) (1.664)

ugs_rate(2) GDP per capita second_gdp urbanization road_density carbon_emission pop pop_rate nonfarm_employ

0.081** 0.021 − 0.183*** 0.134*** 0.172*** − 0.069* − 0.005 − 0.078

(0.035) (0.055) (0.045) (0.031) (0.051) (0.038) (0.020) (0.166)

NGC supply precipitation temperature humidity Constant Adjusted R2 F

0.027 − 0.005* 0.006 − 0.074 − 0.236 3.379*** 0.480 7.404

(0.017) (0.003) (0.037) (0.172) (0.167) (1.288)

Note: *, **, *** indicate statistical significance at the 10%, 5%, and 1% levels, respectively; standard errors are in parentheses. All variables are treated as logarithmic,
except for binary variables.

led to the expansion of new UGS towards the periphery of the urban
area. The above conclusion is supported by the findings of Wu et al.
(2021), and Zhou et al. (2023), as well as the UGS development of cities
such as Berlin and Bangkok (Kabisch and Haase, 2014; Thaiutsa et al.,
2008). However, Li et al. (2023b) found that greening trends decreased
gradually from urban cores to urban new towns and then to browning
trends in urban fringes. These observations are discussed in greater
detail in the discussion section.
The regression results of the relationships between the other eco­
nomic variables and ugs_area and ugs_rate were generally consistent. The
association between second_gdp and ugs_area changed from being posi­
tive to negative. Similarly, the relationship between second_gdp and
ugs_rate followed a similar trend as the ugs_area. Despite the consistent
positive relationship between second_gdp and ugs_rate, the correlation
weakened considerably as the quantile increased. This can be attributed
to the phenomenon of UGS being squeezed out as a result of a combi­
nation of industrial expansion and increasingly dense urban road
networks.
Regarding governance variables, both ugs_area and ugs_rate were
significantly higher in cities designated as NGCs, indicating a positive
impact of national governance interventions on UGS. The effect of the
representation variable (supply) of local governance on UGS varied
depending on the UGS itself. In lower quantile models, the coefficients of
UGS supply area (supply) had significant negative impacts on UGS,
whereas it had significant positive impacts in higher quantile models,.
This finding aligns with the theoretical inference, indicating that cities
with lower UGS suffer from inadequate supply of green space land, while
cities with higher UGS allocate more land towards UGS development,
thus exacerbating inequality in UGS provision.
It was unexpected to find a consistent and significant negative rela­
tionship between household registration population (pop) and natural
growth rate of the population (pop_rate) with ugs_rate. This relationship
appears in models (6), (7), (8), and (9) and aligns with findings observed
in some European cities (Fuller and Gaston, 2009). Theoretically, one
could expect a positive impact of population and natural population
growth rate on UGS, and their negative correlation with ugs_rate in­
dicates that the ugs_rate lags behind demand in most Chinese cities.
4.2. ESA results
ESA results are depicted Figs. 5 and 6, illustrating the average
treatment effects for different periods compared to the baseline group at
a 95% confidence interval. The baseline group is determined using the
first period’s exogenous shock results. Using the UGS in the initial year
of the city’s designation as an NGC as a benchmark, Figs. 5 and 6
represent the results of the UGS in subsequent years relative to the
benchmark group. Significantly positive (negative) average treatment
effects indicate an increase (decrease) in UGS following the city’s
designation as an NGC.
To meet the NGC standards, cities strived to enhance ugs_area and
ugs_rate. Upon receiving the NGC designation, ugs_area and ugs_rate both
decreased significantly. In addition to Chinese cities, Sweden and

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J. Huang et al. Journal of Cleaner Production 427 (2023) 139261

Table 3
UQR results of ugs_area (model 3–7) and ugs_rate (model 8–12).
VARIABLES ugs_area ugs_rate

Q10(3) Q30(4) Q50(5) Q70(6) Q90(7) Q10(8) Q30(9) Q50(10) Q70(11) Q90(12)
GDP per capita 0.329*** 0.186*** 0.308*** 0.676*** 1.138*** 0.303*** 0.119*** 0.027*** 0.024*** 0.020***
(0.065) (0.037) (0.045) (0.035) (0.094) (0.035) (0.014) (0.006) (0.004) (0.006)
second_gdp 0.995*** 0.464*** 0.019 − 0.649*** − 1.783*** 0.139** 0.053** 0.018* − 0.009 − 0.051***
(0.139) (0.061) (0.042) (0.062) (0.147) (0.057) (0.020) (0.010) (0.008) (0.014)
urbanization 0.201** 0.208*** 0.216*** 0.137*** 0.394*** − 0.239*** − 0.075*** − 0.033*** − 0.025*** − 0.021***
(0.085) (0.052) (0.035) (0.033) (0.084) (0.052) (0.015) (0.007) (0.005) (0.005)
road_density 0.164** 0.061 − 0.008 0.001 − 0.204*** 0.257*** 0.102*** 0.0496*** 0.035*** 0.038***
(0.074) (0.042) (0.032) (0.032) (0.074) (0.042) (0.016) (0.006) (0.005) (0.006)
carbon_emission 0.282*** 0.238*** 0.218*** 0.150*** 0.040 0.053 0.012 − 0.006 − 0.007* − 0.015***
(0.071) (0.027) (0.028) (0.023) (0.048) (0.035) (0.011) (0.004) (0.003) (0.005)
pop 0.038 0.225*** 0.386*** 0.605*** 1.038*** 0.018 − 0.009 − 0.023*** − 0.016*** − 0.018***
(0.069) (0.029) (0.034) (0.033) (0.089) (0.036) (0.013) (0.005) (0.003) (0.005)
pop_rate − 0.291*** − 0.272*** − 0.182*** 0.066 0.384*** − 0.234*** − 0.102*** − 0.022 − 0.000 0.026***
(0.091) (0.096) (0.054) (0.059) (0.129) (0.076) (0.030) (0.015) (0.007) (0.009)
nonfarm_employ 0.846 − 0.324 − 0.707*** − 0.237 0.569 0.188 0.449*** 0.171** 0.071* − 0.027
(0.728) (0.261) (0.259) (0.323) (0.355) (0.367) (0.154) (0.075) (0.042) (0.070)
NGC 0.148*** 0.409*** 0.453*** 0.251*** − 0.133* 0.130*** 0.194*** 0.153*** 0.102*** 0.058***
(0.048) (0.035) (0.034) (0.041) (0.079) (0.030) (0.014) (0.010) (0.006) (0.006)
supply − 0.082*** − 0.043*** − 0.006 0.043*** 0.187*** − 0.032*** − 0.004* 0.003 0.000 − 0.005**
(0.010) (0.008) (0.006) (0.011) (0.022) (0.005) (0.002) (0.002) (0.001) (0.002)
precipitation 0.304*** − 0.078 0.072 − 0.105 − 0.098 − 0.001 − 0.010 0.005 0.021** 0.054***
(0.116) (0.065) (0.072) (0.066) (0.158) (0.063) (0.026) (0.012) (0.010) (0.014)
temperature − 0.409*** − 0.273*** − 0.324*** − 0.350*** − 0.359*** 0.104 0.060** − 0.010 − 0.022*** − 0.035***
(0.122) (0.072) (0.065) (0.061) (0.116) (0.081) (0.023) (0.014) (0.006) (0.010)
humidity − 0.254 0.690*** 0.181 0.458*** 0.433 0.347 0.131 0.098*** 0.035 − 0.044
(0.347) (0.175) (0.214) (0.168) (0.407) (0.218) (0.092) (0.035) (0.028) (0.038)
Constant − 3.788 3.828*** 6.299*** 2.148 − 2.644 − 3.173 − 0.480 2.146*** 2.899*** 3.720***
(3.590) (1.384) (1.320) (1.747) (2.055) (1.942) (0.815) (0.378) (0.185) (0.345)
Observations 4957 4957 4957 4957 4957 4953 4953 4953 4953 4953
Adjusted R2 0.215 0.388 0.457 0.485 0.344 0.111 0.228 0.212 0.151 0.053
Year fixed YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES
City fixed YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES
F 106.800 243.900 323.200 361.300 202.500 49.770 114.800 104.900 69.970 23.650

Note: *, **, *** indicate statistical significance at the 10%, 5%, and 1% levels, respectively; standard errors are in parentheses. All variables are treated as logarithmic,
except for binary variables.

Fig. 5. l.lnugs_area before and after a city was rated as an NGC. Fig. 6. l.lnugs_rate before and after a city was rated as an NGC.

Australia have also experienced a decline in the UGS (Bush, 2020;
Sandstrom, 2002). Local governments’ lack of political will to enforce
regulations, limited financial support for UGS development, and con­
cerns about potential revenue losses have been suggested as possible
causes (Lara-Valencia and Garcia-Perez, 2015).
Consistent with the 4.1 UQR Results, the positive correlation coeffi­
cient between NGC and ugs_area decreases gradually in the model results
for 50%, 70%, and 90% of ugs_area, as does the relationship between
NGC and ugs_rate. Accordingly, the ESA findings obtained from the ESA
align with the 4.1 UQR Results.
4.3. Heterogeneity analysis
Due to significant variations in economic, demographic, and political
representation between China’s provincial capitals and non-capital cit­
ies, additional analysis subset provincial capitals (including four mu­
nicipalities) and non-capital cities was conducted for this heterogeneity
investigation (Table 4).
According to the results of the heterogeneity analysis, the positive
impact of GDP per capita on ugs_area was more pronounced in provincial
capital cities compared to non-provincial capital cities. After controlling

8
J. Huang et al. Journal of Cleaner Production 427 (2023) 139261

Table 4 ugs_area between the two city types.

Heterogeneity results between provincial capitals and non-capital cities.
ugs_area ugs_rate 5. Discussion
provincial Non- provincial Non-
capital (13) capitals (14) capital (15) capitals (16) 5.1. Differential results of ugs_area and ugs_rate

GDP per capita 0.323*** 0.138** 0.276*** 0.022

(0.124) (0.064) (0.064) (0.046)
Previous studies have explored the relationship between economic
second_gdp 0.567*** − 0.091 − 0.183** − 0.034 growth and UGS using various independent and dependent variables.
(0.182) (0.083) (0.084) (0.061) GDP per capita (Richards et al., 2017), built-up area (Yang et al., 2014),
urbanization − 0.055 0.228*** − 0.211** − 0.274*** the percentage of secondary industry output (Li et al., 2018), and the
(0.127) (0.054) (0.086) (0.053)
urbanization rate are commonly used as independent variables (Liu
road_density 0.120 0.260*** 0.080 0.249***
(0.086) (0.046) (0.053) (0.035) et al., 2016), whereas the proportion of UGS, green space per capita, and
carbon_emission 0.515** 0.042 − 0.094 0.392** aggregation of UGS are employed as the dependent variables (Li et al.,
(0.238) (0.115) (0.138) (0.167) 2018). These studies present conflicting results. Wu et al. (2021)
pop 1.979** 0.523** 0.499 − 0.315 demonstrated a negative correlation between the regional greenness
(0.777) (0.208) (0.497) (0.226)
pop_rate − 0.011 0.031*** − 0.008 − 0.001
dynamics index (RGDI) and GDP when considering the entire city, but a
(0.033) (0.011) (0.016) (0.011) significant, positive correlation between GDP and RGDI when focusing
nonfarm_employ 1.017 − 0.637*** − 0.214 − 0.478*** only on long-term built-up areas from 2010 to 2019. Li et al. (2018) used
(0.622) (0.184) (0.289) (0.117) GDP per capita as the main independent variable and found a positive
NGC − 0.044 0.058** 0.124*** 0.022
correlation between GDP per capita and the UGS rate as well as public
(0.070) (0.024) (0.033) (0.018)
supply − 0.002 − 0.006 − 0.001 − 0.008** green space area per capita. However, it has been demonstrated that the
(0.008) (0.005) (0.004) (0.004) urbanization rate, share of secondary industry output, urban land, and
precipitation 0.068 0.002 0.002 0.013 population density have opposite effects on these two indicators of
(0.107) (0.058) (0.066) (0.045) greenness.
temperature 0.372 0.262 0.197 − 0.025
(0.479) (0.198) (0.269) (0.183)
Studies of UGS using data from China’s statistical yearbook often
humidity − 0.100 0.135 0.334 − 0.146 failed to differentiate between the coverage of the data and did not
(0.645) (0.262) (0.354) (0.206) consider the economy’s nonlinear impact. Fig. 7 compares the average
Constant − 10.930* 8.796*** − 0.271 1.930 UGS areas in the overall municipal districts, the built-up areas and the
(6.477) (1.901) (3.369) (1.950)
non-built-up areas within the municipal districts. Results showed that, in
Observations 385 3339 385 3337
Adjusted R2 0.927 0.862 0.539 0.501 general, UGS areas in the municipal districts and the built-up areas
Year fixed YES YES YES YES increased over the years. There was a general increase in UGS areas in
City fixed YES YES YES YES the non-built-up areas of the municipal district. However, there were
F 2.648 10.760 2.968 10.710 slight decreases in UGS areas in the non-built-up areas in 2006, 2010,
Note: *, **, *** indicate statistical significance at the 10%, 5%, and 1% levels, and 2017 compared to the previous years. Since the size of municipal
respectively; standard errors are in parentheses. All variables are treated as districts in Chinese cities is typically fixed, this decline can be attributed
logarithmic, except for binary variables. to the rapid expansion of built-up areas within the municipal districts. As
the newly developed built-up areas expand, they encroach upon the
for other variables, a 1% increase in GDP per capita led to a 0.323% and existing non-built-up areas, resulting in a decrease in UGS areas in those
0.138% increase in ugs_area for provincial capital cities and non- areas.
provincial capital cities, respectively. Combining these findings with UGS data in this study was sourced from the China Urban Statistical
those presented in Table 2, it is evident that the positive impact of GDP Yearbook, which has a limited statistical scope that restricts the differ­
per capita on ugs_area is greater in cities with higher levels of ugs_area. entiation between long-term and newly developed built-up areas as well
This suggests that provincial capital cities generally have larger ugs_area as further research. Existing studies using remote sensing data have
than non-provincial capital cities. The analysis of UGS remote sensing
data by Dou and Kuang (2020) reveals that megacities had relatively
larger UGS areas prior to the year 2000, whereas smaller cities had
bigger UGS areas after the year 2000. On the other hand, research
conducted by Montalto et al. (2018) in the European context suggests
that non-capital cities may perform better in UGS. These discrepancies
can be attributed to inconsistencies in the research scope or measure­
ment indicators. Since the impact of non-provincial capital cities’ GDP
per capita on ugs_rate was not found to be statistically significant, no
further inferences can be drawn.
Significant differences in ugs_area between provincial capitals and
non-capital cities may stem from a number of sources, including eco­
nomics and governance (Gordon and Scott, 2016). Compared to capital
cities, non-capital cities are generally at a lower level of economic
development, making them more susceptible to challenges such as low
density, decentralized land use patterns, economic incentives, and
market volatility (Bunting et al., 2007; Jacobs, 2006). This vulnerability
may result in the destruction of UGS to create space for real estate in­
vestments (Simard and Simard, 2005). In addition, provincial capitals
tend to have a higher level of political representation and play a leading
role in UGS development compared to non-capital cities (Boulton et al.,
2020). This political influence can result in significant differences in Fig. 7. Changes of UGS area in municipal districts, built-up areas, and non-
built-up areas and ugs_rate in built-up areas.

9
J. Huang et al.
produced contradictory findings regarding changes in UGS in the newly
developed built-up areas and non-built-up areas of Chinese cities. Li
et al. (2023b) found that greening trends decreased gradually from
urban cores to urban new towns and then to browning trends in urban
fringes. Wu et al. (2021) and Zhou et al. (2023) showed significant
greening characteristics in the long-term built-up areas and non-built-up
areas of Chinese cities, whereas newly developed built-up areas
exhibited browning trends. Several factors can be attributed to the
mixed conclusions. According to Zhou et al. (2023), inconsistencies in
the original datasets may contribute to the variation. Second, differences
in data processing methods, such as the delineation of boundaries for
built-up areas and non-built-up areas, can lead to divergent conclusions.
Researchers have employed different indicators to represent UGS, which
may contribute to the heterogeneity of results in UGS-related studies.
5.2. Why did UGS experience a significant decline after a city was
designated as an NGC?
A consistent pattern showed an initial upward trend in ugs_area
before being designated as an NGC, followed by a significant decrease in
both ugs_area and ugs_rate after the NGC designation. This phenomenon
is not unique to Chinese cities, as similar observations have been made
in other countries. For instance, Sandstrom (2002) noted that despite the
Swedish government establishing six criteria for UGS provision, a
number of municipalities failed to adhere to these guidelines. In Mel­
bourne and Canberra, the absence of standardized implementation
processes and limited collaboration among governance institutions has
resulted in significant pressure on UGS due to urban development (Bush,
2020). Factors such as a lack of political will to enforce regulations
(Lara-Valencia and Garcia-Perez, 2015), poorly managed planning
processes at the local level, and reluctance to make sound planning
decisions due to concerns about revenue loss, collectively impact the
local greenspace provision and management (Pincetl and Gearin, 2005).
Consistently, research indicates that funding UGS remains an ongoing
challenge for local governments, and that limited financial support and
reduced global investments exacerbate the challenges these cities face in
balancing economic growth with the provision of UGS (Bush, 2020).
Prior research in the Chinese context predominantly examined the
effects of national-level policies, such as UGS planning laws and regu­
lations, national forest city assessments, natural forest conservation
programs, and ecological redline policies, on UGS (Hu et al., 2020; Xu
et al., 2020b; Zhang et al., 2021; Zhou et al., 2022). There is currently a
lack of quantitative research on the effects of NGC rating on UGS. This
study, which covers a long period of time and a wide sample of Chinese
cities, provides empirical evidence supporting Hypotheses 2 and 3. It
suggests that Chinese city governments perceive the NGC city rating as a
benchmark for UGS development. This phenomenon, commonly
referred to as the “environmental qualification race” (Zheng and Guo,
2022), signifies that obtaining the NGC designation is regarded as a
significant accomplishment for local officials in the realm of environ­
mental protection. In the current political climate, where the central
government places a strong emphasis on environmental preservation,
obtaining the NGC designation is advantageous for the career
advancement of local officials (Chen et al., 2017). Unlike competitive
economic tournaments, however, the environmental qualification race
merely requires meeting predetermined criteria to earn the corre­
sponding recognition. Consequently, once a city gets the NGC designa­
tion by meeting the requirements for UGS area and coverage, the
political motivation to further improve environmental quality di­
minishes. Both ugs_area and ugs_rate decrease significantly as a result of
this phenomenon.
Treating UGS provision merely as a bureaucratic technical tool could
limit the ability of cities to respond to constantly changing political,
economic, population, and environmental conditions (Boulton et al.,
2020). Several aspects of the national garden city assessment can be
strengthened to address the “environmental qualification race” effect. In
10
Journal of Cleaner Production 427 (2023) 139261
addition to the quantitative evaluation, it is crucial to optimize the
eligibility criteria for participation by placing greater emphasis on
quality factors related to UGS, such as accessibility to UGS. This will
incentivize local governments to improve the service functions of UGS.
To ensure the long-term commitment of local governments to the pres­
ervation of UGS, the scientific rigor and importance of future UGS
planning should be incorporated into the evaluation system. Further­
more, consolidating and strengthening the effectiveness of local UGS
protection can be achieved through measures such as enhanced
post-assessment monitoring, positive incentives such as financial allo­
cations, and reverse incentives such as holding local leaders
accountable.
5.3. UGS governance in various urbanization phases and subsequent
development of ugs_rate
In different stages of urbanization, cities adhere to different devel­
opment strategies and policy orientations (Sun et al., 2020), affecting
the planning and governance of UGS (Spyra et al., 2021). Such phe­
nomena are frequently observed in China and other developing coun­
tries (Nor et al., 2017; Wu et al., 2019), and align with the “U-shaped”
trend described by the Urbanization-Environmental Kuznets Curve
proposed by Fang et al. (2021). In the early and rapid phase of urbani­
zation, population growth and the expansion of industrial land constrain
and squeeze UGS. At this stage, development and construction are the
primary concerns, and the protection and planning of UGS have not
received sufficient attention. Most of the feedback effects of urbaniza­
tion on UGS are negative (Liu et al., 2022). As urbanization progresses to
decelerated development stage, spatial pressures from urbanization and
industrialization compete with the need to attract labor resources to
inject vitality into urban development. In response, the policy orienta­
tion of UGS governance focuses on the construction and management of
UGS, and a positive feedback of urbanization on the environment starts
to emerge (Nielsen et al., 2017). In the ultimate phase, the policy
orientation of UGS governance emphasizes sustainable development
and the governance of UGS systems. This is accomplished through UGS
planning, management regulations, and funding for UGS construction
and maintenance to promote the protection and improvement of UGS
environments (Spyra et al., 2021).
UGS has numerous benefits for urban development, and despite city
governments have made efforts to increase UGS, the research indicates
that the positive impact of the economy on ugs_rate and the growth of
ugs_rate in built-up areas are leveling off (Fig. 7). This phenomenon was
observed in both developed and developing countries (Barker et al.,
2020; Dong et al., 2020).As cities grow and expand, suitable land for
UGS becomes increasingly scarce. There may be insufficient funding or
political support, and as the costs of building and maintaining UGS
continue to rise, the growth rate of green coverage in urban built-up
areas may reach a plateau. Implementing natural solutions such as
green roofs could be one way to further increase green coverage in
built-up areas (da Silva et al., 2023).
6. Conclusions
Compared to existing research, this study contributes to an under­
standing of theoretical mechanisms, provides a quantitative assessment
of governance effects, and expands our knowledge of nonlinear effects of
driving factors in UGS research. It investigates the interaction mecha­
nisms between economic development and UGS, as well as the impacts
of national and local governance on UGS. It distinguishes the spatial
differences between UGS in built-up areas and municipal districts and
quantifies the effects of governance variables such as NGC designation.
Moreover, this study utilizes long-term, large-sample panel data for UQR
analysis, thereby enhancing the understanding of the dynamics of UGS
development under various pressures.
The study demonstrates that economic development, population
J. Huang et al.
growth, governance, and natural conditions are significant determinants
of UGS provision in Chinese cities. The overall findings can be summa­
rized as follows: (1) Economic growth was significantly and positively
correlated with ugs_area and ugs_rate, and its positive correlation with
ugs_area increased as the ugs_area quantile rose, while its positive cor­
relation with ugs_rate weakened at higher quantiles. This can be attrib­
uted to escalating land prices in urban centers and the increasing density
in built-up areas, resulting in a slower growth rate of built-up UGS
compared to the expansion rate of construction land areas. Conse­
quently, more UGS appears in the non-built-up areas of the city. (2)
Cities strived to increase ugs_area and ugs_rate in order to meet the NGC
standards. Upon receiving the NGC designation, both ugs_area and
ugs_rate decreased significantly. (3) The positive relationship between
the economy and UGS was more pronounced in provincial capitals
compared to non-capitals, and the ugs_rate was generally higher in
provincial capitals than in non-capital cities. The disparities in UGS
coverages between provincial capitals and non-capital cities may stem
from various factors, including economics and administrative aspects.
In light of these findings, the study proposes the subsequent rec­
ommendations. First, while economic growth benefits the development
of UGS, the rapidly expanding and increasingly dense built-up areas
associated with economic growth compete for land with UGS. City of­
ficials should prioritize striking a balance between expansion and UGS
development. This can be achieved by constructing smaller, more
dispersed green open spaces within urban centers and built-up areas. By
integrating UGS into the fabric of people’s lives, work, and recreation,
cities can promote social integration, harness the positive effects of UGS
on residents’ physical and mental health, support ecosystems, and bal­
ance economic growth with the well-being of residents. This strategy
fosters social and ecological sustainability. Second, higher levels of
governance must address the issue of low-density land use patterns and
the loss of UGS in non-capital cities. Incorporating UGS and ecological
construction into the officials’ evaluation system can enhance the
resilience of urban green infrastructure. Multiple instruments that
combine economic and governance strategies should be incorporated by
city policymakers in order to strengthen UGS. This integration will
contribute to maintaining and enhancing urban livability and sustain­
ability, particularly in light of challenges posed by global warming and
the urban heat island effect.
This research has several limitations. First, the analysis focuses on
the years after 2000. It would be interesting to explore the relationship
between industrial development and UGS by collecting data from an
earlier period. Prior to the year 2000, certain Chinese cities had already
completed their industrialization process, so examining data from that
time may yield additional insights. It is important to note, however, that
significant changes in economic development and large-scale UGS
planning in Chinese cities have occurred since 2000 (Zhou et al., 2021),
making the sample period in this study representative and the results
valid. The inability to spatially differentiate between long-established
built-up areas and newly developed built-up areas within the munic­
ipal districts is a second limitation of this study. This limitation hinders
comparisons with other UGS-related studies and may restrict the inter­
pretability of the results. Moreover, no empirical analysis using UGS
quality indicators was conducted. Future research could consider
extracting UGS quality information from satellite images and expanding
UGS quality research by incorporating UGS connectivity, accessibility,
and ecological service functions as indicators. Finally, there may be a
two-way relationship between urban economy and environment. While
this study focuses specifically on empirically investigating the influence
of the economy on UGS, it is important to note that UGS can also in­
fluence the urban economy. Future endeavors could quantify the
reciprocal relationship between UGS and economic growth, including
the feedback effect of UGS on economic growth and the mutual feedback
effect between the two variables.
11
Journal of Cleaner Production 427 (2023) 139261
CRediT authorship contribution statement
Jing Huang: Conceptualization, Methodology, Validation, Data
curation, Visualization, Writing – original draft, Writing – review &
editing. Xingbang Wang: Methodology, Writing – review & editing.
Dong Zhang: Writing – Review & Editing. Zhengfeng Zhang:
Conceptualization, Methodology, Writing – review & editing, Supervi­
sion, Funding acquisition. Jinming Yan: Conceptualization, Supervi­
sion, Funding acquisition. Fangzhou Xia: Conceptualization,
Supervision, Funding acquisition.
Declaration of competing interest
There are no conflicts of interest to declare.
Data availability
Data will be made available on request.
Acknowledgments
This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation
of China (No. 42077433), the National Social Science Foundation of
China (No.21AZD041) and the “Postgraduate Scientific Research Fund”
(No. 2022044), School of Public Administration and Policy, Renmin
University of China. We thank all editors and anonymous reviewers for
their valuable comments. Special appreciation goes to Erik Patton, a
doctoral candidate from Duke University’s Nicholas School of the
Environment, for his meticulous proofreading of this paper.
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