Environmental Challenges 4 (2021) 100190

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Environmental Challenges
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/envc

Modeling the relationship between land use/land cover and land surface
temperature in Dhaka, Bangladesh using CA-ANN algorithm
Abdulla - Al Kafy a,b,∗, Nataraj Narayan Dey a, Abdullah Al Rakib a, Zullyadini A Rahaman c,
N M Refat Nasher d,e, Abhishek Bhatt f
a
Department of Urban & Regional Planning, Rajshahi University of Engineering & Technology (RUET), Rajshahi 6204, Bangladesh
b
ICLEI South Asia, Rajshahi City Corporation, Rajshahi 6203, Bangladesh
c
Department of Geography and Environment, Faculty of Human Sciences, Sultan Idris Education University, Tanjung Malim 35900, Malaysia
d
Life and Earth Sciences, Jagannath University, Bangladesh
e
Graduate School of Human Development and Environment, Kobe University, Japan
f
Department of Electronics and Telecommunication, College of Engineering Pune, India

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Keywords: Rises in land surface temperature (LST) significantly impacted by land use/land cover (LULC) changes. The
Land use/land cover changes increase in LST massively impacted the urban biodiversity, ecosystem and population health. This study aims to
Land surface temperature estimate the changes in LULC classes and identify their impacts on LST in Dhaka city, Bangladesh using Landsat
Cellular automata
satellite images from 2000 to 2020. Based on the past estimated change maps of LULC and LST, the study finally
Artificial neural network
predicted the future LULC and LST scenario for the year 2030. The support vector machine algorithm was applied
Prediction
to perform the LULC classification. Artificial neural network and cellular automata algorithms were used to
predict the LST and LULC changes for 2030. Results suggested a significant reduction in vegetation cover (5%)
and an increase in built-up area (14%) from 2000 to 2020. Due to this massive increase in built-up areas, the
LST increment took place by 7.24 °C in the last two decades. The maximum temperature was recorded in built-
up areas (34 °C), and water bodies (19 °C) exhibited minimum temperature. A strong positive correlation was
found between LST and Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI), where negative relation estimated between
LST and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI). The
predicted results for 2030 also exhibit significant loss of urban green cover areas by 13% and rises in built-
up areas by 21%. The maximum LST will likely be increased by 9.29 °C in the predicted year. For ensuring
sustainable urban development and minimizing the urban heat island effects, this study will play a significant
role by providing effective guidelines for urban planners, policymakers and respective authorities of Dhaka city.

1. Introduction
Climate change is one of the most perilous environmental aspects
affecting ecosystem services, environmental sustainability and daily life
(Chakroborty et al., 2020; Choudhury et al., 2019; Kumar et al., 2020).
Changes in land use/land cover (LULC) exacerbate climate alteration
by decreasing biodiversity and generating the urban heat island (UHI)
consequence in cities by raising the land surface temperature (LST).
Changes in LULC and LST are considered among the most widespread
study themes for remote sensing (RS) scholars (Al Rakib et al., 2020a;
Dey et al., 2021; Kafy et al., 2021d). Investigations on LULC and LST
change aid in assessing cities’ ecological health and viability (Zhou et al.,
2013; Siddique et al., 2020). Worldwide urbanization has become the
driving force behind environmental, social-economic and demographic
transformation over the last few decades (Al Rakib et al., 2020b; 2020c;
Choudhury et al., 2019; Kafy et al., 2019b). As a result of urbaniza-
tion, LULC categories like green cover, wetlands, water bodies, and open
fields undergo rapid transformation (Ding and Shi, 2013; Faisal et al.,
2021; Kafy et al., 2021a). The haphazard conversion of one LULC fea-
ture to another has a substantial influence on the native and regional
environment (Al Rakib et al., 2020a; Das et al., 2020; Rousta et al.,
2018). Uncontrolled rapid urban expansion and LULC transformations
have the potential to alter the hydrological, thermodynamic, and radia-
tive activities of the earth surface, thereby amplifying the effects of cli-
mate change and heatwaves. Additionally, the unmonitored alteration
of LULC expands built-up areas by displacing green cover, resulting in
environmental degradation via UHI effects. Rapid urbanization rises im-
pervious layers (structures, roads, and factories, for example), resulting

∗
Corresponding author at: ICLEI South Asia, Rajshahi City Corporation, Rajshahi 6203, Bangladesh. Website: https://www.abdullaalkafy.xyz/. Email: abdulla-
al.kafy@localpathways.org ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7544-5165
E-mail addresses: abdulla-al.kafy@localpathways.org (A. - A. Kafy), nataraj.ruet047@gmail.com (N.N. Dey), abdullahalrakib310@gmail.com (A. Al Rakib).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envc.2021.100190
Received 13 May 2021; Received in revised form 13 June 2021; Accepted 22 June 2021
2667-0100/© 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
A. - A. Kafy, N.N. Dey, A. Al Rakib et al.
in massive LST increment (Hossain et al., 2020; Ramachandra et al.,
2012). Increased LST also has an effect on UHI phenomena, having a
significant influence on biodiversity’s primary function, local and re-
gional climate (Luck and Wu, 2002). The built-up areas have a higher
concentration of UHI due to the presence of additional impermeable
surfaces. UHI is a critical topic for environmental development because
it consists a variety of negative consequences for urban inhabitants
(Kafy et al., 2020c). UHI concepts are processed from LST estimation
from freely available, easily accessible remote sensors with a higher
ranged spatiotemporal resolution (Kafy et al., 2020a). Specifically, his-
torical medium-resolution Landsat data are repeatedly used to define
the LST and to characterize the UHI influence (Choudhury et al., 2019;
Kafy et al., 2020c; Naim and Kafy, 2021).
Estimating cities’ LULC shifting patterns has become a critical aspect
in achieving sustainable environmental enhancement (Siddique et al.,
2020). Due to spatiotemporal LULC variations, the pattern of spatial
landscapes alters on a variety of land surfaces and thus it became criti-
cal to ascertain LULC changes at appropriate scales using accurate time-
series data. Then, perceptions of its associations for the climate change
in urban areas will emerge, assisting in the comprehension of the vari-
ous environmental consequences (Almazroui et al., 2013; Siddique et al.,
2020). Numerous mathematical indices have been used by researchers
worldwide to help them better understand changes in LULC (Mishra and
Prasad, 2015). The most widely used catalogue is the Normalized
Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) that describes the condition of
vegetation using a combination of the red and near-infrared bands of the
Fig. 1. Location map of the study area (a) Dhaka City in Bangladesh (b) Major road network, the elevation of Dhaka city.
2
Environmental Challenges 4 (2021) 100190
satellite images (Gascon et al., 2016). Additionally, due to the scarcity
of water, the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) detect water
bodies using satellite images’ near-infrared (NIR) and middle infrared
(MIR) bands (McFeeters, 1996). Additionally, urbanization is a signifi-
cant driver of LULC change, reducing an area’s vegetation cover as it is
converted to built-up areas (Kafy et al., 2019a; Pu et al., 2006). To de-
termine the congregation of built-up areas and bare lands, Normalized
Difference Built-up Index (NDBI) and the Normalized Difference Bare
Soil Index (NDBSI) were calculated using the red, blue, NIR, and short
wave infrared (SWIR) bands (Chen et al., 2006; Kafy et al., 2019a).
However, detecting LULC and LST consequences with accessible
Landsat records is simple, but predicting upcoming variations is trouble-
some. Markov Chain (MC), Cellular Automata (CA), and Artificial Neu-
ral Network (ANN) models are the most commonly used to predict LULC
change (Balzter, 2000; Santé et al., 2010; Zenil, 2010). If the LULC con-
version is well-known but the spatial dependence and dissemination are
unavailable, the MC model is considered (Kafy et al., 2020b; Ullah et al.,
2019). The CA model, which is based on a set of conversion algorithms,
uses the historical circumstances of cells in an analytical zone to classify
each pixel’s situation in an array (Santé et al., 2010). The most substan-
tial benefit of the CA model is dependent on the earlier configuration of
variables such as distance to road and rail network, slope, and elevation,
and for this reason, this model is frequently used in utility and resource
research (Ménard and Marceau, 2005). To forecast LST, ANN combined
with related LULC indexes such as NDVI, NDBI, NDBSI, and NDWI can
effectively estimate future changes (Mushore et al., 2017; Hasanlou and
A. - A. Kafy, N.N. Dey, A. Al Rakib et al.
Mostofi, 2015). The potential of these indexes to simulate LST was as-
sessed using the ANN process, and the results revealed that NDBI is the
most accurate LST predictor (Ullah et al., 2019). Since it reflects earlier
changing patterns and uses the LULC indices to predict future scenar-
ios, ANN method is considered as a LST predictior (Kafy et al., 2021b;
Ullah et al., 2019). A lesser dataset is also a prerequisite to build the fun-
damental simulation process (Dhamge et al., 2012; Ullah et al., 2019).
As a result, ANN is regarded as the best method for forecasting the LST
consequences (Kafy et al., 2021c; Ullah et al., 2019).
Dhaka, Bangladesh’s capital city, has experienced rapid urban
growth since independence due to significant urban development and
rural-urban migration. The increasing population pressure has acceler-
ated unplanned expansion in this area. Methods such as CA-ANN algo-
rithms can be helpful in identifying the short and long standing mag-
nitudes of LULC and LST transformation in this region. It can also as-
sist policymakers and urban planners in abating the UHI effect. Thus,
this study estimates the chronological change of LULC and its impact
on LST, investigates the relationship between LST under different LULC
categories, and performs a correlation analysis of different land cover
indices with LST for the years 2000, 2010, and 2020. This study also
used CA-ANN algorithms to model the future LULC and LST scenario
for Dhaka city in 2030.
2. Materials and methods
2.1. Study area
Dhaka, the capital city of Bangladesh and a megacity with an esti-
mated population of 13 million. This is one of the fastest developing
megacities with tremendous growth intensity from the start. Because of
Fig. 2. LULC prediction estimation process for 2030.
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Environmental Challenges 4 (2021) 100190
the rapid urbanization features, the city contains one of the uppermost
population concentrations in the world. The loss of the arable land of
the city occurred many years ago, water bodies are all most filled, and
the city is filled with buildings. Today, Dhaka is one of the utmost risk
priorities city globally with its dense human habitation and fastest ur-
banization features situated in valuable assets that are highly susceptible
to earthquakes. The city is surrounded by four rivers which make this
region vulnerable to urban flooding. The elevation profile of Dhaka is be-
tween 2 and 13 m above sea level. Geographically Dhaka City is located
between the latitude 23.4115˚N to 23.5345˚N and longitude 90.1945˚E
to 90.2630˚E. The study area is approximately 148 km2 (Fig 1). It is
located on the banks of the Buriganga River. Dhaka North City Corpora-
tion (DNCC) and Dhaka South City Corporation (DSCC) were separated
into two sections of the city corporation. For this study, these two parts
of the city corporation are combined with Dhaka Cantonment and Air-
port and named as Dhaka City. According to the Bangladesh Bureau
of Statistics (BBS) 2018, the total population of Dhaka City Corpora-
tion (126.34 km2 ) is 69, 70,105 with a population density of 5,51,656
per km2 . This increase in population density with the hazardous ur-
ban growth is a major concern of urban planners and policymakers
in Bangladesh. This unplanned urban expansion significantly converted
the green cover and wetlands to the built-up area and created environ-
mental degradation.
2.2. Data acquisition information
Landsat multispectral data were downloaded from USGS earth ex-
plorer to monitor LULC changes, LST distributions and LULC indices
such as NDBI, NDBSI, NDVI, and NDWI. Images were obtained from
a same month to prevent seasonal changes impact with less than 10%
A. - A. Kafy, N.N. Dey, A. Al Rakib et al. Environmental Challenges 4 (2021) 100190

Table 2
Detail description of different LULC features.

LULC Features Description

Built-up Area Residential, commercial services, transportation network

Bare Soil Sand, bare land, and landfill sites
Vegetation Sparse and dense vegetation, trees, grassland, cropland
Water Bodies Wetlands, ponds, lakes and river.

guideline provided by FAO is followed (FAO, 2012; Latham et al., 2002).

Detail features include in the LULC classes are mentioned in Table 2.
Classified LULC maps’ accuracy assessment was carried out with 400
points obtained from the Google Earth platform and the global position-
ing system (GPS). All of the points were collected from Google Earth
platforms for years 2000 and 2010, where 250 points were collected
from Google Earth and 150 points were collected using GPS for 2020.
Finally, overall classification accuracy, kappa statistics, user and pro-
ducer accuracy were estimated, which is considered one of the most
effective accuracy assessment approaches (Rahman et al., 2018).

2.4. LULC change estimation

Change estimation in various years LULC classes is crucial to deter-

mine the most significant land cover factors to help reduce the cool areas
like vegetation cover and water bodies. For estimating the influence of
unplanned urban expansion on other LULC classes, the matrix union
tool in Erdas Imagin V15 software was used from 2000 to 2010. 2010
to 2020, and 2000 to 2020 LULC maps to identify the changing pixels
from vegetation cover, water bodies and bare soil classes to built-up ar-
eas. Matrix union checkes and creates a new file for two input theme
files raster. The generated file includes class values that indicate how
the original files overlap the LULC class values.

2.5. Estimation of LST

The digital numbers (DN) from the acquired dataset’s thermal band
(Band 6 for Landsat 5 TM and Band 10 and 11 for Landsat 8 OLI) were
Fig. 3. Prediction process of LST for 2030. used for the LST estimation. Firstly, Eqn (1) and Eqn (2) were calculated
with spectral radiance (𝜆) of the Landsat 5 TM and Landsat 8 OLI bands,
Table 1 respectively. In degree celcius, L𝜆 was utilized to determine the LST
Downloaded Landsat satellite images information from USGS. using the Eq. (3).
Years Datasets Date Sensor ID Path/Row Cloud Cover 𝐿𝑚𝑎𝑥 − 𝐿𝑚𝑖𝑛
𝐿𝜆 (𝐿𝐴𝑁𝐷𝑆𝐴𝑇 5 𝑇 𝑀 ) = 𝐿𝑚𝑖𝑛 + × 𝐷𝑁 (1)
2000 2000–02–20 TM 137/44 Less than 10%
𝑄𝑐 𝑎𝑙𝑚𝑎𝑥 − 𝑄𝑐 𝑎𝑙𝑚𝑖𝑛
2010 2010–02–15 TM 137/44 Less than 10%
2020 2020–02–11 OLI_TIRS 137/44 Less than 10% 𝐿𝜆 (𝐿𝐴𝑁𝐷𝑆𝐴𝑇 8 𝑂𝐿𝐼 ) = 𝑀𝐿 × 𝐷𝑁 + 𝐴𝐿 (2)

𝑇𝐵
cloud coverage. However, all the Landsat scenes over the study area are 𝐿𝑆𝑇 = ( ) − 273.15 (3)
𝑇𝐵
free of cloud cover. There was no further geo correction, image to image 1+ 𝜆× 𝜌
∗ ln(𝜀)
correction and geometric distortions was performed as Landsat images
are free from them (Kafy et al., 2020b). Detailed data information of the Where, ML (0.0003342) is considered as a multiplicative rescaling fac-
acquired data is demonstrated in Table 1. tor (different for each band) and AL (0.1) is an additive scaling factor
(different for each band). The sateliite metadata file collected the infor-
mation for Landsat TM, Lmax, and Lmin . The wavelength of radiance (𝜆)
2.3. LULC classification emissions is 11.5 μm (Kumar et al., 2012; Ullah et al., 2019; Kafy et al.,
2020a).
For LULC classification, image preprocessing was completed through
ℎ ×𝑐
radiometric and atmospheric correction using ERDAS Imagin V15 soft- 𝜌= = 1.438 × 10 − 2 mK (4)
𝜎
ware. After the corrections, images were classified into four major
classes: vegetation cover, built-up areas, bare soil and water bodies for Where, h is the Plank’s constant having a value of 6.626 × 10–34 Js,
2000, 2010 and 2020. A suitable color combination was used to classify c is the light velocity, which is equal to 2.998 × 108 ms−2 and 𝜎 is the
the LULC classes using approximate 40 training samples. The support Boltzmann constant (5.67 × 10–8 Wm2 k-4 i = 1.38 × 10-23 JK−1 ) Eqn (4);
vector machine (SVM) algorithm, a non-parametric classifier and depen- 𝜀 is the land surface emissivity which ranges in between 0.97 and 0.99.
dent mainly on training samples, was used to classify the LULC classes.
𝐾2
FAO developed Land Cover Classification System (LCCS) that provides 𝑇𝐵 = ( ) (5)
𝐾1
an effective framework for LULC classification, and in this study, the ln 𝐿𝜆
+1

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A. - A. Kafy, N.N. Dey, A. Al Rakib et al. Environmental Challenges 4 (2021) 100190

Fig. 4. LULC maps of the study area for the year (a) 2000, (b) 2010, (c) 2020.

Table 3 2.7. Relationship between LULC and LST

Equations for LULC indices.

Indices name and equations References The spatiotemporal monitoring of LST distribution on different LULC
was accomplished by the "combine" feature from "spatial analyst" toolset
𝑁 𝐼 𝑅 − 𝑅𝐸𝐷 (Gascon et al., 2016;
𝑁 𝐷𝑉 𝐼 = (6) in ArcGIS 10.6 software to determine the impact of LULC change on
𝑁 𝐼 𝑅 + 𝑅𝐸𝐷 Yengoh et al., 2015)
LST. Since visible, SWIR and thermal bands used for LULC classification
𝐺𝑅𝐸 𝐸 𝑁 − 𝑁𝐼𝑅 (Abutaleb et al., and LST estimation, all the images are converted in the 30 m × 30 m
𝑁𝐷𝑊 𝐼 = (7)
𝐺𝑅𝐸 𝐸 𝑁 + 𝑁𝐼𝑅 2015) spatial resolution using standardization approach before performing re-
lationship analysis. The "combine" tool chain multiple raster data sets to
𝑆𝑊 𝐼 𝑅 − 𝑁 𝐼 𝑅 (Arekhi et al., 2019)
𝑁 𝐷𝐵𝐼 = (8) generate unique pixel values for every separate combination from the
𝑆𝑊 𝐼 𝑅 + 𝑁 𝐼 𝑅
input values. The combine feature supports the combination of given
(𝑅𝐸𝐷 + 𝑆 𝑊 𝐼𝑅) − (𝑁𝐼𝑅 + 𝐵𝐿𝑈 𝐸 ) (Mfondoum et al., integer pixel values and associated attribute tables. If the value has any
𝑁𝐷𝐵𝑆 𝐼 = (9)
(𝑅𝐸𝐷 + 𝑆 𝑊 𝐼𝑅) + (𝑁𝐼𝑅 + 𝐵𝐿𝑈 𝐸 ) 2016; decimal point, it is trimmed automatically in the output attribute table,
Yankovich et al.,
as against other input. The output of the combine tool summarizes the
2019)
LST distribution in different LULC and outputs the scenario as a table
and illustrates them in a different raster.
In addition, Pearson’s Product Moment correlation has been applied
Where 𝑇𝐵 is the satellite brightness temperature, and the constants K1 to recognize the impact of the different spatial indicators on surface
and K2 values for Landsat 5 are 607.7 and 1260.6, respectively, and for temperature. The correlation between raster-raster variables (e.g., LST
Landsat 8 the values are 774.9 and 321.07, respectively (Ullah et al., and NDVI; LST and NDWI, and so on) was calculated in this study using
2019; Kafy et al., 2020a). the scatter plot tool in QGIS 3.8.1 software.

2.8. LULC and LST prediction

2.6. Calculations of LULC indices
The LULC indices such as NDBI , NDBSI, NDVI, and NDWI) are es-
timated using the Red, Blue, Green, NIR, and SWIR bands. The indices
were utilized to establish a relationship with LST. Table 3 shows the
equations used for the calculation of indices.
A key aspect of the study is forecasting the LULC and seasonal LST
distribution for the next decade. Using several models, including ANN,
CA, MC, and regression techniques, the spatiotemporal distribution of
LULC and LST are predicted (Mansouri et al., 2016). MOLUSCE plugin
tool in the QGIS software for this study was used to forecast the 2030
LULC and LST distribution, which is considered to be among the best
prediction models (Das et al., 2020; Kafy et al., 2020c).

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A. - A. Kafy, N.N. Dey, A. Al Rakib et al.
Fig. 5. Changing pattern of built-up areas to other land cover classes from (a) 2000–2010 (b) 2010–2020 and (c) 2000–2020.
MOLUSCE is a software tool for analyzing, exhibiting, and simulating
changes. It incorporates conventional algorithms like CA, ANN, Logis-
tic Regression, Multi-Criteria Evaluation, and Weights of Evidence. MO-
LUSCE is much user friendly and contains a variety of modules and func-
tions. The plugin is composed of various components: an input module,
an analysis of the changing trend, modeling methods, prediction, and
validation (Kafy et al., 2020b; 2020c). The input module for this study
contains dependent variables, i.e.,LULC maps and LST distribution and
independent variables,i.e., proximity from residential, commercial, ed-
ucational places, water bodies and roads, elevation and slope (for LULC
prediction) and NDVI, NDWI, and NDBI (for LST prediction). LULC and
LST maps for 2000 & 2010 were used in simulating 2030 LULC and
LST maps. Since visible, SWIR and thermal bands used for LULC clas-
sification, LST and NDVI, NDWI, and NDBI estimation, all the images
are converted in the 30 m × 30 m spatial resolution using standardiza-
tion approach before performing prediction analysis. Analysis of area
change calculates LULC and LST variations between two time periods
and created transition matrices and mapped the LULC and LST change
distribution. The ANN model was used to predict LULC and LST tran-
sition potential in the modeling methods stage setting the maximum
iteration at 1000. Transition potentials prompt the probability of future
LULC and LST change using a neural network and include detailing of
the descriptive power of driver variables. The pixel for the neighbor-
hood was set to 9 cells (3 × 3) to set maximum iterations and pixels for
the model. The prediction stage shows prospective transition maps, an
experimental certainty function, and 2030’s simulated scenario. Based
on the CA modeling approach, predicted LULC maps were generated.
The CA-ANN algorithm’s detailed prediction process is illustrated in
Fig 2 and Fig 3. For the accuracy validation of the predicted LULC map,
the validation stage generated different kappa statistics like percent of
correctness, standard kappa, kappa histogram, and kappa location.
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Environmental Challenges 4 (2021) 100190
3. Result and discussion
3.1. LULC change analysis
Extraction of the four LULC classes for the last two decades (2000,
2010, and 2020) was accomplished using the SVM algorithm (Fig 4). To
assess the classified LULC maps’ accuracy, 400 random points for each
year were taken. For all of the years, the overall accuracy (percentage)
was estimated greater than 95% (Table 4). Additionally, the kappa co-
efficientproduced satisfactory outcome, with values greater than 90%
for the study duration.
Two clear changing trends, i.e., increase in built-up area and de-
creases in bare soil, vegetation cover, and water bodies, are distinctly no-
ticed (Fig 4). From 2000 to 2020, the built-up area increased by 13.84%,
with a yearly change rate by 0.69%. A massive decrease in vegetation
cover and water bodies were noticed as they were decreased by −5.26%
and −0.94%, with a yearly decrease rate of −0.26% and −0.04% from
2000 to 2020 (Table 5).
Several factors, including uncontrolled rural to urban migration,
haphazard infrastructure development, unplanned urban expansion to
cope up with the increasing urban population may all play a role in these
transformations. The underlying hypothesis revealed that this signifi-
cant urban expansion incorporates both strategic and economic factors
that results in a scarcity in natural resources, and cool LC like vegetation
cover and water bodies (Fu and Weng, 2018).
3.2. Impact of built-up area expansion on other LULC classes
The massive infrastructure and unplanned development significantly
converted the green cover, water bodies, and bare land into built-up
areas (Fig 5). A remarkable conversion from bare land and vegetation
A. - A. Kafy, N.N. Dey, A. Al Rakib et al. Environmental Challenges 4 (2021) 100190

Fig. 6. Variations of LST in the study area.

Fig. 7. Distribution of range wise LST in the study area.

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A. - A. Kafy, N.N. Dey, A. Al Rakib et al. Environmental Challenges 4 (2021) 100190

Fig. 8. Mean distribution of temperature over different LULC classes from 2000 to 2020.

Table 4
Accuracy Assessment of LULC classification for 2000, 2010, 2020.

User Accuracy (%) Producer Accuracy (%) Overall Overall Kappa

Years Classification Statistics
Built-up areas Bare Soil Vegetation Water Bodies Built-Up Areas Bare Soil Vegetation Water Bodies Accuracy (%)

2000 94.44% 90.00% 84.62% 90.00% 94.44% 90.00% 88.57% 92.89% 95.71% 0.9065
2010 94.74% 84.62% 86.92% 90.00% 94.74% 91.67% 86.92% 91.82% 97.27% 0.9273
2020 93.33% 87.78% 88.89% 85.71% 93.33% 87.50% 90.00% 90.71% 97.50% 0.9282

Table 5 Demographic, economic, and cultural factors all have an effect on

Area change in different LULC classes. this massive urban expansion (Weng, 2001). The pattern of LULC is
LULC Type Area (in Km2 ) greatly influenced by the growth and decline of the human population.
Additionally, migration, rural-urban population distribution, and urban-
2000 2010 2020 Change in% Yearly rate of
ization all have an effect on it. Economic policies such as land subsidiza-
(2020–2000) change (%)
tion, price changes and taxes also influence the decision-making process
Bare Soil 42.47 33.31 31.13 −7.64 −0.38 of human beings and lead to changes in patterns of land use. Attitudes,
Built Up Area 70.88 85.24 91.43 13.84 0.69
Vegetation 30.84 25.69 23.03 −5.26 −0.26
religious beliefs, history, values, and individual perception all contribute
Water Bodies 4.31 4.25 2.91 −0.94 −0.04 to land use patterns. The ecological consequences are also dependent on
the knowledge of land managers, political and economic policies, and
management skills.
Table 6
Land transition from different LULC to built-up areas.
3.3. Variations of LST changes over the study area
Area (in Km2 )
Transformation to Built - Up Area 3.3.1. Validation of estimated LST
2000–2010 2010–2020 2000–2020
Using the thermal sensors of the acquired data, the LST for each study
Bare soil to Built-up areas 16.17 11.64 19.45 period was estimated. However, despite the fact that proven equations
Built-up Area (Unchanged) 64.40 76.06 62.93
Vegetation to Built-up areas 5.19 4.15 9.33
used by researchers worldwide were used to retrieve LST, it is plagued
Water bodies to Built-up areas 0.47 0.77 0.90 by a number of limitations. For the maximum amount of accuracy in the
Other changes 62.04 55.64 55.62 LST estimation process, clear weather and 0(zero)% cloud cover has to
be in the acquired images. The extent of cloud coverage in an acquired
dataset can hamper the LST estimation process creating a biased result.
Furthermore, not all surface materials have unique emissivity values in a
cover to the built-up area was noticeable for both 2000–2010 (10.91%, specific area (Dar et al., 2019; Neteler, 2010). Such problems can induce
3.50%) and 2010–2020 (7.85%, 2.80%). The overall change from 2000 error values in the LST distribution of the study area.
to 2020 shows that 29.69 km2 area was converted into built-up areas The maximum and minimum temperature data were acquired from
from both water bodies, vegetation, bare soil and covered 62.48% of the the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) for 2000, 2010
city by settlements (Table 6). and 2020 in order to validate estimated LST values from RS data

8
A. - A. Kafy, N.N. Dey, A. Al Rakib et al. Environmental Challenges 4 (2021) 100190

Fig. 9. Relationship (Regression analysis) (a) NDVI relation with LST, (b) NDWI relation with LST.

Table 7
Validation of seasonal thermal bands estimated LST with weather station data.

Year 2000 2010 2020

LST

Source of estimated/recorded LST Maximum Minimum Maximum Minimum Maximum Minimum

Estimated LST from thermal bands ( °C) 27.48 19.19 29.27 20.08 34.73 21.46
BMD recorded LST ( °C) 25.5 16.2 28.9 16.2 30.4 17.5
Deviation ( °C) −1.98 −2.99 −0.37 −3.88 −4.33 −3.96
Average Deviation −2.48 −2.12 −4.14

(Table 7). The variances were established using BMD-recorded weather
station data. Negative deviation in LST implies that the RS evalu-
ated value is larger than the observed value. Post deviation, how-
ever, shows that the value of the RS estimation is less than the
value observed.
The highest and lowest deviation was observed for 2020 maximum
and minimum temperatures, which were −4.33 °C and −3.96 °C, respec-
tively. As shown in Table 7, the average maximum and minimum devi-
ations for 2000, 2010, and 2020 were −2.48 °C, −2.12 °C, and −4.14 °C.
Though the RS estimated LST values had some limits influenced by
the real-life scenario, the mior difference between estimated and mea-
sured LST can be acknowledged and used for further analysis in this
study such as the LST prediction.
3.3.2. Changes in LST classes over the study area
Multiple equations were used to estimate the spatiotemporal dis-
tribution of LST over the study period using Landsat thermal bands.
The yearly distribution of LST from 2000 to 2020 is shown in Fig 6,
which demonstrates increasing trends. In 2000, the highest tempera-
ture recorded was 27.48 °C, which increased significantly in 2020 to
34.73 °C with a 0.363 °C yearly change. Similarly, the lowest temper-
ature was recorded 19.19 °C for 2000, which increased significantly in
2020 by 21.46 °C with a 0.114 °C yearly change, respectively (Table 8).
The LSTs distribution in the study area is illustrated in Fig. 6 for the
years 2000 to 2020. In 2000, 70.74% (104.13 km2 ) of the study area had
experienced a temperature between 21 °C and < 24 °C. Also, 35.15% of
the study area was in the temperature range of 24 °C - < 27 °C in 2010
that increased to 62.54% in 2020 where 17.67% area was in the temper-

9
A. - A. Kafy, N.N. Dey, A. Al Rakib et al. Environmental Challenges 4 (2021) 100190

Fig. 10. Relationship (Regression analysis) (c) NDBI relation with LST, (d) NDBSI relation with LST.

Table 8 increase the frequency of life-threatening weather events (Hossain et al.,

Seasonal LST data and yearly change. 2019). According to climate change experts and meteorologists, the win-
Year LST ( °C) ter season is expected to be much warmer and shorter than in previous
years because the temperature is not changing as anticipated.
Minimum Maximum

2000 19.19 27.48

2010 20.08 29.27
2020 21.46 34.73 3.4. Variations of LST changes over different LULC
Rate of Change/year 0.114 0.363

Estimated mean LST distribution in different LULC classes for 2000,

ature range between 27 °C and < 30 °C in 2020.This scenario suggests
a massive rise in the surface temperature of the study area. Although
only 1.69 % and 3.34 % area was recorded with high temperature in
2010 and 2020, respectively, it is expected to significantly increase in
upcoming years if the current trend continues (Fig 7). From the above
discussion, it is clear that the surface temperature was faced with sig-
nificant increase during the last two decade.
Climate change, unplanned urbanization, and the decline of vege-
tation areas and surface water bodies in the study region may all con-
tribute to the rise in LST (Alamgir et al., 2020; IPCC, 2014). The sub-
stantial increase in LST will negatively impact water accessibility and
2010, and 2020 were calculated in ArcGIS 10.6 software with the zonal
statistics tool (Fig. 8). The mean LST was faced with an increment in ev-
ery LULC class during the study period, but the LST values were notice-
ably increased in the built-up area and bare soil. The mean LST values
for 2000 and 2010 in the built-up and bare soil area were increased from
23.5 °C to 25 °C and 23 °C to 24 °C, respectively. In the last 20 years,
the mean LST distribution increased by 5 °C and 4 °C in both built-up
and bare soil areas. The LST distribution had also changed in the water
bodies and the vegetated areas. The estimation reveals that in 2000, the
mean LST value for vegetation land was 23 °C, which increased to 26 °C
in 2020. In water bodies, the mean LST value increased from 22.5 °C to
25 °C. The highest mean LST value was recorded as 29 °C (2020) in the

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A. - A. Kafy, N.N. Dey, A. Al Rakib et al. Environmental Challenges 4 (2021) 100190

Fig. 11. LULC prediction for the year 2030.

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A. - A. Kafy, N.N. Dey, A. Al Rakib et al. Environmental Challenges 4 (2021) 100190

Fig. 12. Changes in LULC from 2000 to 2030 in the study area.

Table 9 Table 10
Correlation matrix between average LST and Validation of the LULC and LST predicted maps using CA-ANN model for the
other spatial indices. year 2020.

Year 2000 Prediction

Year CA model validation for predicted LULC
LST NDVI NDWI NDBI
LULC Kappa Parameters of QGIS-MOLUSCE Plugin module
LST 1 −0.93 −0.85 0.94
2020 K-location K-no K-location K- %- Overall
NDVI −0.92 1 0.86 −0.81
Strata standard correctness Kappa Value
NDWI −0.90 0.85 1 −0.89
0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 88.42 0.87
NDBI 0.86 −0.86 −0.90 1
ANN model validation for predicted LST
Year 2010
LST 2020 0.90 0.87 0.90 0.86 90.21 0.87
LST 1 −0.94 −0.89 0.95
NDVI −0.91 1 0.92 −0.88
NDWI −0.92 0.90 1 −0.81
NDBI 0.82 −0.84 −0.90 1 2000, 2010, and 2020 based on the findings of the dispersed plot dia-
Year 2020
LST 1 −0.91 −0.96 0.92
gram investigations.
NDVI −0.92 1 0.85 −0.88 When comparing LST and NDBI in 2010, the Pearson’s Product Mo-
NDWI −0.93 0.89 1 −0.87 ment correlation analysis shows the highest positive correlation value
NDBI 0.84 −0.87 −0.84 1 of 0.95. (Table 9). Correlation between LST and NDVI demonstrates a
strong negative relationship, with a maximum value of −0.9 in 2010.
built-up area, where the lowest value was recorded as 22.5 °C (2000) in Additionally, a strong negative correlation is estimated between LST
water bodies (Fig. 8). and NDWI analysis, with the highest negative value - 0.98 in 2010. The
dispersed graph (Fig 10) shows that the relationship between LST and
NDBI and NDBSI is strongly linear between 2010 and 2020. (R2 is 0.98
3.5. Impact of vegetation cover and water bodies on LST and 99).

Pearson’s Product Moment correlation (Table 9) and Scattered plot
graphs (Figs 9 and 10) analysis was constructed between LST and LULC
indices (NDVI, NDWI and NDBI) to better signify the effects of LULC
changes on temperature. A linear trend with a high determining coeffi-
cient (R2 ) has been discovered between LST and different indices over
3.6. Validation of the predicted LULC and LST scenarios
The CA-ANN model was first used to predict the LULC and LST for
2020 to ensure the acceptance of prediction results (Table 10). With
the help of the QGIS-MOLUSCE Plugin software, a comparison of the

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A. - A. Kafy, N.N. Dey, A. Al Rakib et al. Environmental Challenges 4 (2021) 100190

Fig. 13. Predicted LST for the year 2030.

13
A. - A. Kafy, N.N. Dey, A. Al Rakib et al.
predicted and the estimated maps was established using different kappa
parameters. The comparison showed excellent results as all the kappa
parameters, percentage of accuracy and oveerall kappa values were over
0.86 with an average error value of approximate 12% in all parameters.
3.7. Predicted LULC for 2030
Classified maps of the study period were used to predict the 2030
scenario. The predicted LULC map showed that if the current increasing
trend of built-up area continues without any planned step, the increasing
urban areas will be concentrated in the north-western region by 69%
(61.57% in 2020), with bare land and vegetation cover being replaced
by built-up areas. A significant decrease in vegetation cover was also
recorded by 12.28% that was 15.51% in 2020 (Fig 11). Compared with
the initial year 2000, the simulated LULC scenario would be faced with
a 21.26% increase in built-up areas, followed by a remarkable decrease
in bare land, vegetation cover, and water bodies by 10.87%, 8.48%, and
1.90%, respectively (Fig 12).
Reduced vegetation cover and increased urbanization may have an
effect on a city’s ecosystem services, urban health, and thermal char-
acteristics. If the unplanned urban expansion trend resumes, the con-
sequences of UHI will be magnified, resulting in an upsurge in en-
vironmental, economic and medical concerns in the study area. Ap-
propriate land-use planning, the protection of water bodies, afforesta-
tion, and an escalation in urban greeneries will contribute to make
Dhaka city more environmentally sustainable by mitigating the UHI
effects.
3.8. Predicted LST for 2030
On the basis of previous LST datasets, 2030 LST scenarios were pre-
dicted (Section 2.7). The simulated scenario revealed higher temper-
ature areas will likely take place in the north-western region, mostly
equipped with built-up areas (Fig 13) and will have a maximum and
minimum LST of 36.56 °C and 23.44 °C.
The prediction results indicate that LST has been increasing in recent
years (2000–2020), with built-up areas influencing the dominance of
higher LST. Increasing urban footprints and an alarming decline in veg-
etation coverage will massively increase LST resulting in the creation
of more UHI effects. Without urbanization, possible causes of the rising
temperature would be the change in the greenhouse influence, global
warming and surface characteristics. The predicted LST exposed the real
risks of the temperature rise in the current trend including higher UHI
effects. Energy consumption increased greenhouse gas emissions, and
air pollution all contribute to the UHI effect, posing a threat to aquatic
systems (rivers, lakes, ponds, streams, and oceans) and a threat to hu-
man health. Increased greenhouse gas emissions mostly harm human
healthiness, degrade urban health superiority, and reduce the city’s en-
vironmental sustainability (Kafy et al., 2020c).
3.9. Limitations of the CA-ANN model
Although the CA-ANN model is an effective package for LULC and
LST analysis and prediction models can yield better results if the prior
LULC and LST patterns are consistent. The CA-ANN model therefore
does not always provide clear spatial LULC forecasts (Santé et al., 2010).
Sometimes called CA-ANN a black box ,as the direct association of the in-
fluential factors may be established between them (Van Gerven and Bo-
hte, 2017). The CA-ANN model produces training samples and automat-
ically begins training, after receiving input from the layers, without any
consideraiton for their relative significance in identifying the most im-
portant variables. The system does not have well-established standards
for the individual weighting of each input parameter (Shatnawi and Abu
Qdais, 2019). However, it is not possible to forecast 100 percent accu-
racy of dynamic phenomena such as Urbanization, loss of green cover,
14
Environmental Challenges 4 (2021) 100190
and proliferation of surface temperatures, since they primarly are con-
trolled by human activities and rational decisions taken at regional to
urban level.
Regardless of their limits, dynamic models aid in the formulation of
hypotheses and the comprehensive decision making of the phenomena
of land cover and surface temperature variation trends in any area. LULC
and LST variations and prediction mappings quickly became recognized
as one of the best instruments in the management and mitigation of vital
natural resources.
4. Conclusion
This study aims to reveal the future LULC and LST change scenar-
ios using RS data in Dhaka city, Bangladesh. The study has explored a
significant increase in built-up areas by 21% in 2030 if the urban infras-
tructural growth continues from 2000 to 2020. The rapid built-up area
expansion will take place by reducing 8% of the green cover and 2%
of the water bodies areas in 2030. The study also estimated the high-
est temperature on built-up and bare land areas where lower LST was
recorded in vegetation cover and water bodies. The past trend of LST
(2000–2020) changing pattern deficits an average increase of tempera-
ture by 0.95 °C in the last two decades, which is predicted 1.52 °C for
the year 2030 compared with 2020.
In this respect, to lessen the effects of unplanned urban growth and
temperature upsurge, the Rajdhani Unnayon Kortipakhya (RAJUK) -
Capital Development Authority of Dhaka city has been developed Dhaka
Structure Plan for 2016–2035. The plan places a strong emphasis on the
long-term development of urban infrastructure in order to improve the
surrounding environment and the overall life quality. In the case of land
use planning, the plan placed a strong emphasis on the development of
policies and zonation techniques to facilitate the development of res-
idential, commercial, and industrial neighborhoods. Furthermore, the
plan recommended increment of green covers through vertical infras-
tructure development, a plantation approach, and the development of
urban green parks on previously unused land, all of which will aid in
controlling the surface temperature by reducing the amount of sunlight
reaching the ground. Besides that, the use of light-coloured roofs for in-
frastructural development, plantation of shade trees with a huge canopy,
and vertical and horizontal development of green spaces in buildings is
one of the most effective strategies to reduce the UHI effects and miti-
gate the urban microclimate. However, without deliberate and rigorous
land-use planning, these approaches will be impossible to implement.
This study will assist higher authorities in taking precautionary actions
to restrict haphazard urban growth and mitigate future increases in ur-
ban surface temperature.
5. Funding information
The research does not receive any funding.
Declaration of Competing Interest
The authors stated that the work in this article had no knowledge of
rival financial interests or personal ties.
Acknowledgment
The authors like to express their thanks for supporting this research
with datasets to Rajshahi Development Authority, Rajshahi City Corpo-
ration, and the United States Geological Survey. The authors would also
like to thank DIGON specialists in research and advisory for the proof-
reading and linguistic editing.
A. - A. Kafy, N.N. Dey, A. Al Rakib et al.
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