Sustainable Cities and Society 78 (2022) 103643

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Sustainable Cities and Society

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/scs

Prediction and evaluation of spatial distributions of ozone and urban heat

island using a machine learning modified land use regression method
Li Han a, Jingyuan Zhao a, *, Yuejing Gao b, Zhaolin Gu c
a
School of Architecture, Chang’an university, Xi’an, Shaanxi, China
b
School of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Xi’an University of Science and Technology, Xi’an, Shaanxi, China
c
School of Human settlements & Civil Engineering, Xi’an Jiao Tong university, Xi’an, Shaanxi, China

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: In summer, Ozone (O3) pollution and urban heat island (UHI) pose serious health risks to humans. To obtain the
Ozone spatial distributions of ozone and urban heat island in Xi’an in summer and develop a simultaneous control
Urban heat island strategy of ozone and urban heat island, the land use regression model is modified and improved using the
Land use regression
machine learning random forest algorithm. The LUR-Kriging-RF integrated prediction model is then established.
Random forest
Spatial distribution
The land use regression and kriging are used to extract the feature variables, while random forest is used to
establish a regression model. The spatial distribution maps of ozone and urban heat island in Xi’an are obtained
by regression mapping of the prediction model, and the spatial relationships between them are analyzed. The
SHapley Additive explanation (SHAP) and partial dependence plot (PDP) are adopted to explain the way feature
variables act on ozone and urban heat island. Based on the spatial distribution and interaction mode, a simul­
taneous control strategy of ozone and urban heat island in Xi’an is put forward. For ozone, the R2 of the inte­
grated prediction model (0.65) is higher than that of land use regression (0.4), while the RMSE (28.18) of the
integrated model is lower than that of land use regression (35.66). For temperature, the R2 of the integrated
model (0.93) is higher than that of land use regression (0.8), while its RMSE (0.92) is lower than that of land use
regression (1.52). The performance of the LUR-Kriging-RF integrated prediction model is better than that of land
use regression. This study reveals the spatial interactions between ozone and urban heat island in the central
urban areas. The suitable strategies for mapping ozone pollution and urban heat island control include reducing
VOCs emissions from industrial sources and agricultural sources, increasing plants with low VOCs emissions, and
spray humidification. This study can be used to evaluate ozone exposure and thermal exposure, provide scientific
support for environmental protection and urban heat island control policies, contribute to reducing public health
threats, promote the sustainability of urban environments, and promote the practical application of machine
learning in this field.

1. Introduction
Ozone (O3) can stimulate the human respiratory system and cardiopul­
monary system. It can also enter human circulation system through blood,
and cause damage to the cardiovascular system as a strong oxidant (Car­
valho et al., 2021; Day et al., 2017; Li et al., 2018; Lyu et al., 2021; Wang et al.,
2022). In particular, long-term ozone exposure could increase the proba­
bility of asthma in children and affect the growth of children’s cardiopul­
monary system (Gabriel, Paciência, Felgueiras, Rufo, Mendes, 2021; Li et al.,
2019; Qin et al., 2021b; Qiu et al., 2021; To et al., 2021). During 2013–2019,
O3 concentration in 74 key cities in China increased by 28.8% on average. In
2019, O3 was the major pollutant in 119 cities in China for more than half of
the year. The rising number of new buildings and roads in cities can further
increase the urban heat load. In the context of global warming, persistent
high temperature and heat wave in cities would increase the incidence of
heatstroke, intestinal diseases and cardiovascular diseases (Abadie &
Polanco-Martinez, 2021; Bongioanni et al., 2021; Jung et al., 2021; Patz,
Campbell-Lendrum, Holloway & Foley, 2005; Wang et al., 2022; Wang, Cao
& Yu, 2020a; Yang et al., 2021b). Each elderly person in China would endure
an average of 13 more days of heat wave in 2019, and the risk of death of the
elderly on hot days is 10.4% above that on non-hot days (Khan et al., 2021;
Kollanus, Tiittanen & Lanki, 2021; Urban, Kysely, Plavcova, Hanzlikova &

* Corresponding author.
E-mail address: zjyqtt@chd.edu.cn (J. Zhao).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2021.103643
Received 26 November 2021; Received in revised form 24 December 2021; Accepted 24 December 2021
Available online 27 December 2021
2210-6707/© 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
L. Han et al.
Fig 1. The location and jurisdiction of Xi’an, and the monitoring stations with the city.
Stepanek, 2020; Weinberger et al., 2021). The urban heat island (UHI) will
significantly increase urban energy consumption, and the increase in energy
consumption will further aggravate atmospheric pollution, which is a serious
obstacle to sustainable urban development (Xi, Ren, Wang, Feng & Cao,
2021). At this stage, the public is generally aware of the health hazards of
PM2.5, but little attention has been paid to the health hazards of O3 (Cao et al.,
2017; Kumar et al., 2021a, 2021b; Meng, Cao, Kumar, Tang & Feng, 2021).
The studies of thermal exposure or ozone pollution alone could not resolve
the complex urban climate issues and health threats, and thermal pollution
and ozone are serious impediments to sustainable urban development
(Kalisa, Fadlallah, Amani, Nahayo & Habiyaremye, 2018; Parida et al., 2021;
Taha, 2015). The simultaneous treatment of O3 pollution and thermal
exposure could effectively solve the urban climate issues.
At present, land surface temperature (LST) inversion from remote
sensing data is considered a common method to predict temperature spatial
distribution (Chen, Zhou, Hu & Zhou, 2020a; Despini et al., 2021; Dugord,
Lauf, Schuster & Kleinschmit, 2014; Ren, Zhou & Wang, 2021). However,
huge differences exist between the retrieved land surface temperature and
temperature predicted based on meteorological stations. Compared with the
hourly temperature recorded by meteorological stations, remote sensing
images are not continuous, and the inversion results can only represent the
land surface temperature for each day. Moreover, the retrieved land surface
temperature is generally higher than the real temperature (Madanian, Sof­
fianian, Soltani Koupai, Pourmanafi & Momeni, 2018; Shi, Katzschner & Ng,
2018; Shi et al., 2019; Yang et al., 2021a). In this study, temperature data of
meteorological stations were used to predict the average temperature dis­
tribution of the whole city for 59 consecutive days. Since the predicted
temperature was used to correspond to the average concentration distribu­
tion of O3 for the same period, the analysis of the underlying relationships
between the feature variables is more reliable.
To evaluate the pollutant concentrations in regions without moni­
toring stations, land use regression (LUR) can be used to combine the
pollutant concentration data from limited monitoring stations with
some features, (e.g., land use). The main feature of LUR is the effective
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association of land use feature with pollutant concentration, which
could represent the spatial relationships between the air pollutant and
other geographic variables. Following that, the spatial distribution of
regional air pollutants in urban area could be well simulated, and the
causes of air pollution could be explained to some extent (Bitta,
Pavlíková, Svozilík & Jančík, 2018; Han et al., 2020; Ji, Wang & Zhuang,
2019; Lee et al., 2017; Liu, Henderson, Wang, Yang & Peng, 2016; Miri,
Ghassoun, Dovlatabadi, Ebrahimnejad & Lowner, 2019). However, LUR
is a linear regression that cannot sufficiently represent the nonlinear
relationships between variables (Chaturvedi & de Vries, 2021; Gao,
Wang, Li, Zheng & Peng, 2021, 2019; Liu, Chen, Wei, Wu & Li, 2021a).
To this end, random forest (RF) an emerging machine learning algorithm
with high flexibility could improve the prediction accuracy with no
significant demand on computing resources. RF is not sensitive to mul­
tiple collinearities, while the results of the missing data and
non-equilibrium data are stable. Besides, RF is also good at learning
complex and highly nonlinear relationships(Lary, Alavi, Gandomi &
Walker, 2016; Lundberg et al., 2020; Tsanas & Xifara, 2012; Wen et al.,
2022). Introduction of machine learning algorithm in LUR could yield
promising outcome in the field of pollutant prediction.
The development of machine learning algorithms in recent years has
significantly increased their applications in the studies of air pollution
prediction, including O3, NO2, PM2.5 and PM10 (Chen et al., 2021; Cihan,
Ozel & Ozcan, 2021; Hsu et al., 2020; Yang, Freni-Sterrantino, Fuller &
Gulliver, 2020). The temperature prediction based on meteorological
monitoring data here can further contribute to the application of machine
learning in this field. Many previous studies confirmed that the prediction
accuracy of machine learning algorithm is higher than that of LUR, which
resulted in the development of a variety of integrated algorithms for
pollution prediction (Chen et al., 2018; Gobakis et al., 2011; Ren, Mi &
Georgopoulos, 2020; Sun et al., 2021; Weichenthal et al., 2016). Sun et al.
(2021) established a deep learning model structure based on long
short-term memory layers (LSTM). The model predicts the PM2.5 and O3
distribution in Hong Kong, significantly reducing the prediction error.
L. Han et al.
Fig 2. Variation of monthly average O3 concentration for five monitoring stations in 2019.
Equere, Mirzaei, Riffat and Wang (2021) predicted UHI distribution in
Illinois, USA based on GIS and artificial neural network (ANN). The
model’s prediction accuracy was significantly improved after adding
topographic factors. Gobakis et al. (2011) predicted UHI in Athens using
finite data series, and neural network prediction methods can be an
important tool for heat wave and peak energy load prediction in hot
summers, contributing to energy supply and demand management. Many
different feature variables, including land use, land cover, emission
sources, meteorological parameters and pollutant concentrations were
considered in previous studies (Di et al., 2019; Stafoggia et al., 2019;
Wang & Akbari, 2016; Wong et al., 2021). These studies mostly focused on
predicting the spatial distribution of pollutants and lack interpretation of
prediction models and integration studies of O3 and UHI.
This study aims to establish a high-precision LUR-Kriging-RF inte­
grated prediction model to obtain the spatial distributions of O3 and UHI
after regression mapping. By analyzing the interaction modes of the
feature variables of O3 and UHI, a simultaneous control strategy for O3
and UHI could be proposed. First, LUR and Kriging are used to obtain
Fig 3. The frequency histograms of O3 and TEM.
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Sustainable Cities and Society 78 (2022) 103643
feature variables. After that, RF algorithm is used to build a prediction
model for O3 and UHI. Then, the regression prediction model is used to
obtain the spatial distributions of O3 and UHI mapping in Xi’an. Next,
the analysis method of machine learning was used to explain the in­
teractions of different feature variables of O3 and TEM. Finally, the
simultaneous control strategy for O3 and UHI is prosed. The analysis on
spatial relationships between O3 and UHI should provide scientific
support for environmental protection and planning departments to
establish policies for managing O3 pollution and UHI, reduce public
health risks, and promote sustainable development of urban climate and
environment. It could serve as a reference idea for the practical appli­
cation of machine learning in this field.
2. Methodology and materials
2.1. Region and time period
Xi’an an important central city in western China, is located in the
L. Han et al.
Fig 4. An overview of the LUR-Kriging-RF integrated prediction method.
west of the Fenhe-Weihe Plain fault depression basin (as shown in
Fig. 1). Its total area of Xi’an is 10,752 square kilometers. Its jurisdiction
is about 204 kms from east to west, and approximately 116 kms from
north to south. It also has a permanent population of 10,037 million. The
Fenhe-Weihe Plain was one of the most severe O3 polluted region in
China. From 2014 to 2017, the number of days when summer O3 con­
centration exceeded the standard in Xi’an increased from 8 days to 61
days. Xi ’an is prone to ozone generation due to the high temperature
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and strong radiation in summer. Moreover, poor diffusion conditions of
the landscape cause the accumulation of O3 in Xi’an.
According to the variation of monthly average O3 concentration at
the five air quality monitoring stations in Fig. 2, O3 concentrations in
June, July and August are significantly higher than those in other
months. Due to the absence of monitoring data before July 3rd, 2018,
the research time period is set between July 3rd, 2018 and August 31st,
2018 in this study, except July 6 due to the missing data (59 days in
L. Han et al.
Fig 5. Diagrams of three extraction modes for the feature variables.
total). The distributions of 139 air quality monitoring stations and 134
meteorological stations are shown in Fig. 1. The daily average O3 con­
centration is used in this work, while the hourly TEM is used to calculate
the average daily TEM. Unlike the traditional UHI being defined as the
urban-rural temperature difference, this study uses urban temperature
to represent the heat island (Shi et al., 2018).
2.2. Dependent variables
Fig. 3 shows the histogram of the evaluation frequency of O3 and
TEM, which is a statistical analysis of the sample data, including the
sample size, mean, standard deviation. By multiplying the number of
stations with 59 days (the research period), 8024 dependent variables of
O3 and 7906 dependent variables of TEM are obtained.
2.3. Feature variables
2.3.1. Air quality monitoring data
Data recorded by the air quality monitoring stations include O3,
PM2.5 and PM10. Several studies have proven that PM2.5 and O3 are
strongly correlated, as shown by spatial distribution and chemical pro­
cesses (Chen et al., 2019; Qin et al., 2021a; Zhu, Chen, Liao & Dang,
2019). So PM2.5 and PM10 in summer are used as the feature variables of
O3 in summer.
2.3.2. Meteorological monitoring data
Data recorded by the meteorological monitoring stations are hourly
temperature, relative humidity, 10 min average wind speed and
maximum wind speed. The relative humidity, 10 min average wind
speed and maximum wind speed are used as the feature variables.
2.3.3. Land use
The land use data were derived from the remote sensing monitoring
database of land use status in China (provided by the Chinese academy
of sciences). The database uses the Landsat TM/ETM/OLI remote
sensing images as the main data source. After image fusion, geometric
correction, image enhancement and image splicing processing, China’s
land use type were classified into 6 first-class types, 25 s-class types and
some third-class types based on the land use/cover classification system
of China using the interactive visual interpretation method. Five land
types were used in this study, including cultivated land (paddy field +
dry land), green land (forest land + grassland), water area (river canal +
lake + reservoir), industrial and mining land (factory and mine + in­
dustrial area + airport), and construction land (urban land + rural
residential area). Fig. A1 shows the distribution of these 5 land types.
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2.3.4. Road traffic
The road network data used in this work is from OpenStreetMap. The
road network is divided into five levels, namely motorway, primary,
secondary, tertiary and trunk. According to the road network level, three
feature variables of the road network are selected eventually in this
study, including all roads, main roads and highways. The distribution of
the road network is shown in Fig. A2.
2.3.5. Geospatial information
The geospatial information includes elevation, distances from
various land uses and elements. The elevation data come from 30mDEM
data provided by the Chinese academy of sciences. Distances from
various land uses are calculated using Arcgis10.4.
2.3.6. Socioeconomic information
The socioeconomic information includes GDP and population. The
GDP data comes from the kilometer grid data set of China’s GDP spatial
distribution produced by the Chinese academy of sciences. The data are
in grid data type, while each grid represents the gross GDP output value
within the grid range (1 square kilometer), and the unit is ten thousand
yuan/square kilometer. The GDP value of the grid where each moni­
toring station locates in GIS is collected. The population data are derived
from the sixth national population census, and the total population of
the neighborhood or town where the monitoring station locates is
calculated, respectively, as shown in Fig. A3.
2.3.7. Emission sources
The air pollution emission information comes from the monitoring
information release platform of key polluters in Shaanxi Province and
the directory of key polluters of Xi ’an Ecological and Environmental
Protection Bureau. This study uses 83 air pollution enterprises and their
distribution is illustrated in Fig. A4.
2.3.8. Point of interest (POI)
All POI is derived from Amap, which mainly includes restaurants,
parking lots, bus stations, gas stations, factories and printing factories
(See Fig. A5).
2.4. LUR-Kriging-RF integrated prediction method
The modeling process of the LUR-Kriging-RF integrated prediction
method is shown in Fig. 4. This study uses LUR to obtain feature vari­
ables and applies different buffers (100 m, 300 m, 500 m, 1000 m, 2000
m, 3000 m, 4000 m, and 5000 m) to extract the land area, road length,
and number of POI (Han et al., 2020; Shi et al., 2019). The distances
between monitoring stations and various nearest elements are calcu­
lated using Arcgis10.4. Notably, these variables would not change over
L. Han et al. Sustainable Cities and Society 78 (2022) 103643

Fig 6. Spearman coefficients between O3 and the feature variables of different buffers.

time (Lee et al., 2017; Miri et al., 2019). Fig. 5 shows the different comparing the real and predicted values to obtain the accuracy of the
feature variables extraction methods. The Kriging interpolation method verification model (Breiman, Leo & Raymond, 2001; Dietterich, 2000).
is adopted to interpolate meteorological parameters or air pollutants on After establishing the integrated prediction model, a regression
different dates to obtain grid graphs (Hsu et al., 2020). Subsequently, the mapping is performed. In Arcgis10.4, the fishing net creation tool is used
meteorological parameters or air pollutant values at different stations to establish a square grid of 500 m × 500 m within the city area of Xi’an.
are extracted. Note that these feature variables would change over time. The total number of grids is 41,281. The grid centroid is used as the
Taking Software New Town station as an example, we firstly select a center of the circle to create the buffers after extraction of feature var­
3000 m buffer, and then extract the data of industrial land area, road iables. Then, we compute the distance from the grid centroid to different
length and factory number. The input elements represent the station, elements. Meanwhile, the grid centroid is used to extract the corre­
while the adjacent elements represent the POI, road and land use. Next, sponding meteorological data and air pollutant concentrations. The
the distances between the station and adjacent elements are calculated. feature variables of all 41,281 grids are channeled into the model in
After obtaining the feature variables, the bivariate correlation anal­ daily units to obtain all the daily O3 concentrations and TEM in each
ysis function of SPSS version 23.0 is applied to get the Spearman coef­ grid. After that, the mean values of O3 concentration and TEM for 59
ficient between the dependent variable, including O3, TEM and the days are calculated. The obtained data are then assigned in Arcgis 10.4
feature variables extracted through the buffer. For each feature variable, to get the spatial distributions of O3 and UHI.
it would be incorporated into the prediction model when the variable
has the largest coefficient in a corresponded buffer. Since most feature
2.5. Model interpretation
variables do not follow a normal distribution, and Spearman rank cor­
relation coefficients are nonparametric patterns of Pearson’s correlation
2.5.1. SHapley additive explanation (SHAP)
coefficients, Spearman coefficient is used in this work. Moreover, ac­
SHAP is a tree model interpretation method used for machine learning.
cording to the rank of the data, Spearman coefficient (recorded as “r”)
The key idea of SHAP is to first calculate the marginal contribution of all
applies to equal-interval data that do not satisfy the normal distribution
features to the model output, and then interpret the "black box model" from
assumption (Bishara & Hittner, 2012; Rebekić, Lončarić, Petrović &
both global and local levels(Parsa, Movahedi, Taghipour, Derrible &
Marić, 2015). The value of r ranges from − 1 and +1, a larger absolute
Mohammadian, 2020; Rodriguez-Perez & Bajorath, 2020; Vega García &
value of r indicates higher correlations.
Aznarte, 2020). The biggest advantage of SHAP value is that it can represent
After filtering the feature variables, we use scikit-learn 0.24.2 package
the influence of features in each sample. In each predicted sample, the model
in Python 3.6.13 to establish a random forest prediction model. Before
could generate a predicted value. SHAP value is the value assigned to each
modeling, we need to divide the data into training set and test set, the
feature in the sample, and it could also show both positive and negative in­
training set is used for model tuning parameters and model training, and
fluences. The functions of SHAP package include: output the feature
the test set is used for testing the trained model. Parameters need to be
importance ranking and feature density scatter diagram of all samples. In the
adjusted before training the model, including the number of subtrees
diagram of feature importance ranking, X-axis represents SHAP value
(n_estimators), the maximum growth depth of trees (max_depth), the
regardless of positive and negative signs. Each point in the scatter plot of
minimum sample number of leaves (min_samples_leaf), and the minimum
feature density represents a sample, while the X-axis represents the SHAP
sample number of branch nodes (min_samples_split) and the maximum
value. A negative (positive) SHAP value indicates negative (positive) influ­
number of features (max_features). The number of trees is first coarsely
ence. The value of Y-axis represents the magnitude of feature variables.
adjusted, and the learning curve is used to determine the approximate
range of n_estimators before fine-tuning the number of trees, and the best
2.5.2. Partial dependence plot (PDP)
n_estimators are determined within the determined range, with the
PDP is an interpretation method for machine learning model,
highest score being the optimal parameter. After adjusting the parameters
showing how single feature variables can affect the prediction. PDP
and building a random forest regression model with six parameters, the
could be used to observe the marginal effect of a single variable on the
accuracy of the model was then verified using a test set, inputting the
predicted value, assuming other characteristics remain unchanged. Due
feature variables of the test set into the model to predict the dependent
to the nonparametric characteristics of many machine learning algo­
variable, visualizing the real and predicted values of the test set, and
rithms, PDP can reveal linear and nonlinear characteristics which are

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Table 1
Descriptive statistics of feature variables of O3.
Category Subcategory Buffer Unit Average value Standard deviation Minimum Maximum
2
Land use Industrial and mining land 5000m km 2.96 3.61 0 13.67
Built-up area 3000m km2 13.28 10.25 0 28.27
Water body 5000m km2 2.03 3.00 0 14.61
Green space 5000m km2 11.15 12.45 0 71.03
Cultivated land 300m km2 0.06 0.09 0 0.28
Road traffic Motorway 5000m km 18.16 20.16 0 81.29
All road 5000m km 193.48 123.21 12.44 417.01
Major road 5000m km 90.94 63.12 0 201.47
Parking lot 5000m 1 1118 1614 0 5080
Bus station 5000m 1 179 146 0 440
Emission source Air-polluting enterprise 5000m 1 2 2 0 9
Restaurant 5000m 1 3421 4673 1 14,313
Factory 5000m 1 43 31 0 108
Gas station 5000m 1 15 11 0 45
Printing factory 5000m 1 13 19 0 71
Social economy Population n.a Person 60,473 45,082 2264 223,840
Gross domestic product n.a 10k yuan/km2 43,226.47 66,697.77 310 240,496
Geographical space Elevation n.a m 459.57 145.64 349 1124
Distance to all roads n.a m 153.32 208.3 1.57 1409.95
Distance to major road n.a m 880.11 1526 2.1 8288.13
Distance to motorway n.a m 4699.64 5076.44 24.69 43,354.11
Distance to ridge line n.a m 13,116.5 10,271.82 − 30,048.78 33,999.11
Distance to parking lot n.a m 1561.37 2968.89 7.02 16,741.65
Distance to bus station n.a m 744.04 2554.46 0.98 25,846.64
Distance to restaurant n.a m 274.24 492.76 1.29 3675.16
Distance to green space n.a m 938.21 1164.16 0 6708.48
Distance to water body n.a m 2356.2 3037.53 0 25,958.74
Distance to cultivated land n.a m 1090.02 1587.71 0 5777.73
Distance to air-polluting enterprise n.a m 5057.44 6553.5 97.98 44,126.2
Distance to industrial and mining land n.a m 3055.57 3235.68 0 26,436.18
Distance to printing factory n.a m 4994.77 6754.8 39.28 43,108.18
Distance to gas station n.a m 1249.07 1266.2 76.61 9043.61
Pollutant Inhalable particulate matter n.a μg/m3 49.67 17.35 2.6 148.15
Fine particulate matter n.a μg/m3 27.83 9.5 6.5 61.87
Meteorological parameters Average temperature n .a ◦
C 28.36 3.29 18.3 35.56
Maximum temperature n .a ◦
C 33.45 4.42 19.57 41.29
Average wind speed n.a m/s 1.17 0.43 0.3 3.23
Maximum wind speed n.a m/s 1.68 0.51 0.4 4.05
Humidity n.a %RH 69.56 11.66 44.26 98.92

easy to comprehend. PDP is simple and intuitive. When PDP curve of a 3. Results
feature is horizontal or irregular jitter, this feature may be useless. When
PDP curve of a feature is very steep, it indicates that the contribution of 3.1. Feature variables
this feature is relatively large (Apley & Zhu, 2020; Scarpone et al., 2020;
Van Nguyen, Zhou, Chong, Li & Pu, 2020; Zhao, Lovreglio & Nilsson, 3.1.1. Selecting of feature variables for O3
2020). The feature variables of O3 are divided into seven classes including
land use, road traffic, emission sources, socioeconomic information,

Fig 7. Spearman coefficient between TEM and the feature variables of different buffers.

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Table 2
Descriptive statistics of feature variables of TEM.
Category Subcategory Buffer Unit Average value Standard deviation Minimum Maximum
2
Land use Industrial and mining land 5000m km 2.24 3.55 0 14.378
Built-up area 3000m km2 22.20 22.65 0 78.30
Water body 5000m km2 1.81 23.06 0 14.76
Green space 5000m km2 14.47 17.74 0 76.72
Cultivated land 5000m km2 39.94 20.93 0 68.57
Road traffic Motorway 5000m km 16.76 19.29 0 87.48
All roads 5000m km 138.423 108.59 67.36 407.16
Major road 5000m km 63.91 56.20 0 193.54
Parking lot 5000m 1 549 1210 0 5073
Bus station 5000m 1 109 1259 0 426
Emission source Air-polluting enterprise 5000m 1 1 2 0 8
Restaurant 5000m 1 1700 3467 0 14,335
Factory 3000m 1 10 12 0 56
Gas station 5000m 1 10 9 0 46
Printing factory 5000m 1 6 13 0 61
Social economy Population n.a Person 48,321 46,311 2264 223,840
Gross domestic product n.a 10k yuan/km2 20,309.26 48,332.71 308 221,030
Geographical space Elevation n.a m 509.61 203.2 341 1545
Distance to all roads n.a m 169.22 287.59 0.64 1615.97
Distance to major road n.a m 1386.39 2042.04 11.4 8603.34
Distance to motorway n.a m 5731.33 6134.88 64.88 43,351.15
Distance to ridge line n.a m 9753.42 11,529.83 − 30,063.11 34,558.94
Distance to parking lot n.a m 2991.13 3705.58 11.81 21,239.43
Distance to bus station n.a m 1426.94 3282.55 0.82 25,839.5
Distance to restaurant n.a m 535.76 1032.81 3.92 7058.78
Distance to green space n.a m 1062.83 1406.27 0 7847.73
Distance to water body n.a m 3044.7 4077.36 0 27,170.62
Distance to cultivated land n.a m 496.47 1041.13 0 6146.96
Distance air-polluting enterprise n.a m 7949.51 8166.82 552.55 44,136.03
Distance to industrial and mining land n.a m 4031.1 4104.09 0 26,760.43
Distance to printing factory n.a m 7487.15 7751.17 122.74 43,121.62
Distance to gas station n.a m 1820.72 2368.71 46.82 18,842.52
Pollutant Inhalable particulate matter n.a μg/m3 46.93 16.71 2.6 140.25
Fine particulate matter n.a μg/m3 26.87 9.48 6.5 60.23
Ozone n.a μg/m3 145.27 46.85 9 310
Meteorological parameters Average wind speed n.a m/s 1.24 0.45 0.29 3.45
Maximum wind speed n.a m/s 1.76 0.53 0.4 4.15
Humidity n.a %RH 70.84 11.51 41.42 99.12

geographical information, pollutant and meteorological parameters.
Fig. 6 shows the Spearman correlation coefficients between O3 and the
feature variables of different buffers. The X-axis represents the different
buffers. For example, we extract the number of polluting enterprises in
each of the eight buffer zones and calculate the Spearman correlation
coefficients between polluting enterprises and O3 concentration. Y-axis
represents the Spearman correlation coefficients between O3 and the
feature variables in different buffer zones. The overall view of the graph
shows that as the buffer increases, the Spearman correlation coefficients
of each feature variable and O3 also increase. The variables in each class
with the largest Spearman coefficients is selected and inserted into the
prediction model as a feature coefficient. The Spearman coefficients for
the buffer zone of 5000 m are the largest for all the feature variables
except for built-up land and cultivated land. A total of 15 feature vari­
ables are chosen based on the buffers. Finally, 39 feature variables are
selected and entered into the prediction model. Descriptive statistics of
feature variables are shown in Table 1, including the mean, standard
deviation, minimum and maximum values of the feature variables.
3.1.2. Selecting of feature variables for TEM
Fig. 7 shows the Spearman correlation coefficients between TEM and
the feature variables of different buffers. The X-axis represents the
different buffers. For example, we extract the number of polluting en­
terprises in each of the eight buffer zones and calculate the Spearman
correlation coefficients between the number of polluting enterprises and
TEM concentration. Y-axis represents the Spearman correlation co­
efficients between TEM and the feature variables in different buffer
zones. The overall view of the graph shows that as the buffer increases,
the Spearman correlation coefficients of each feature variable and TEM
also increase. The variables with the largest Spearman coefficient of
each class are selected as this class’s feature variable and entered into
the prediction model. The Spearman coefficients for the buffer zone of
5000 m are the largest for all the feature variables except for built-up
land and factory. A total of 15 feature variables are extracted through
buffers, and 38 feature variables are finally inserted into the prediction
model. Descriptive statistics of feature variables are shown in Table 2,
including the mean value, standard deviation, minimum value and
maximum value of feature variables.
3.2. Model prediction
3.2.1. Model parameters
Before parameter adjustment, O3 and TEM data sets are divided into
training set (80% of data) and test set (20% of data). For O3, 6419 data
sets are in the training set, while 1605 data sets are in the test set. For
TEM, 6324 data sets are in the training set, and 1582 data sets are in the
test set. The training set is used for the parameter adjustment, while the
test set is used for the model testing. Table 3 shows the model adjust­
ment results.
3.2.2. Model evaluation
We use the same feature variables and dependent variables to build
multivariate linear regression (MLR) model, LUR and RF model. The
coefficient of determination (R2), mean square error (MSE), root mean
square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) of each model is
calculated and presented in Table 4. The R2 value of RF model is greater
than those of MLR and LUR, indicating that RF regression feature vari­
ables have the better explanatory capacity and data fitting for O3 and

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Table 3 distribution of O3 shows a high concentration in the south and a low

Parameters for O3 and TEM prediction models. concentration in the north (see Fig. 10). O3 concentration in the north is
Parameter O3 TEM higher than that in the southern mountainous area. Except for the high
n_estimators 270 287 O3 concentration regions in the central city, Zhouzhi County and Huyi
max_depth 29 29 District in the west exhibit high O3 concentration regions. The 38 feature
min_samples_leaf 1 1
variables obtained after extraction are entered into the random forest
min_samples_split 2 2
max_features 33 27 regression prediction model to predict the TEM of 41,281 grids for 59
consecutive days. The average TEM of each grid for 59 consecutive days
was calculated as the final TEM value of the grid. When mapping the
spatial variation of UHI, the interval in high TEM region is set to 0.5 ◦ C,
Table 4
Comparisons of the MLR, LUR and RF models for O3 and TEM.
while the interval in low TEM region is set to 1.5 ◦ C (as shown in
Fig. 12). According to the UHI distribution mapping of Xi’an, the high
Dependent variable Evaluating indicator MLR LUR RF
temperature regions in the central and northeastern parts of the city
O3 R2 0.4 0.4 0.65 spread to the northeast, and high TEM region occurs in some areas of
MSE 1361.55 1364.25 794.07 Gaoling, Lintong and Yanliang in the northeastern part of the main city.
RMSE 35.66 36.93 28.18
MAE 28.26 28.34 20.31
TEM R2 0.8 0.8 0.93
MSE 2.3 2.29 0.85 3.4. Contributions of feature variables
RMSE 1.52 1.51 0.92
MAE 1.21 1.21 0.7 According to the ranking of importance on the left of Fig. 13, except
for PM2.5 and PM10, feature variables that vary over time are signifi­
TEM than MLR and LUR. The MSE, RMSE and MAE values of RF are cantly more important than those that do not vary over time. The density
smaller than MLR and LUR, indicating the smaller error of the RF scatters diagram on the right also shows that the sample distributions of
regression model. Figs. 8 and 9 show the real (black dots) and predicted feature variables of meteorological parameters are more dispersed,
(red dots) values of the test set of O3 and TEM in the random forest indicating the greater impact of the feature variables. Among the time-
prediction model. varying feature variables (see their definitions in Table 1), humidity is
the most important feature variable. The blue low humidity sample on
the right side has a significant positive effect on O3. The maximum
3.3. Spatial distributions of O3 and UHI temperature is the second important feature variable, a large number of
red high temperature samples are located on the right, indicating that
The 39 feature variables obtained after extraction are channeled into high temperature has a significant positive effect on O3. The maximum
the random forest regression prediction model to predict the O3 con­ wind speed and average speed wind are the third and fourth important
centrations of 41,281 grids for 59 consecutive days. The average O3 feature variables, respectively. The two feature variables of red sample
concentration of each grid for 59 consecutive days is calculated as the high wind speed on the left side, indicate the obvious negative influence
final concentration value of the grid. The O3 spatial distribution map­ on the O3 concentration. The average temperature is the fifth important
ping is plotted with an interval of 10 μg/m3 (see Fig. 11). The feature variable. Similar to the maximum temperature, high

Fig 8. Predicted values for O3 test sets.

Fig 9. Predicted values for TEM test sets.

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L. Han et al. Sustainable Cities and Society 78 (2022) 103643

Fig 10. Regional distribution map of Xi’an.

Fig 11. Spatial distribution of O3 in Xi’an.

temperature samples located on the right side indicate a significant
positive effect on the O3 concentration. Unlike the maximum tempera­
ture, abnormal high temperature sample is absent on the left side.
Among the variables that do not vary over time, the top five in impor­
tance ranking are elevation, gross domestic product, green space (5000
m buffer), distance to cultivated land, and distance to printing factory,
which negatively influence the O3 concentration.
From the ranking of importance on the left side of Fig. 14, it can be
seen that in addition to elevation, feature variables that vary over time
are more important than those that do not vary over time. Horizontally,
the density scatters diagram on the right suggests that the sample dis­
tributions of meteorological parameters and feature variables of pol­
lutants are more dispersed, indicating huge influence of the feature
variables. Among the time-varying feature variables, humidity is the
most important feature variable, which has a significant negative effect
on temperature. The maximum wind speed is the second important
feature variable, which has a significant positive effect on TEM. O3
concentration is the third important feature variable, and its high value
samples are distributed on the left and right sides. PM10 is the fourth
important feature variable, and it has a significant positive effect on

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Fig 12. Spatial distribution of UHI in Xi’an.

Fig 13. Importance ranking diagram (left) and density scatter diagram (right) of feature variables for O3.

TEM. PM2.5 is the fifth important feature variable, where most samples
with high values are distributed on the right side, and a small number of
samples are distributed on the left side. The top five feature variables
that do not vary over time are elevation, cultivated land (5000 m buffer),
green space (5000 m buffer), distance to ridge line and distance to water
body.
4. Discussions
4.1. Advantages of the LUR-Kriging-RF integrated prediction model
The LUR-Kriging-RF integrated prediction model modified by ma­
chine learning has better performance, higher fitting accuracy R2 and
less error than LUR. The integrated prediction model could cover the
inability of LUR to fit nonlinear relations, which previous studies have
also confirmed (Chen et al., 2018; Ren et al., 2020; Weichenthal et al.,
2016). The two models performed well in the test set, except for a few
values (due to overestimation/underestimation), most of the predicted
values fitted the real values well. Meanwhile, the integrated prediction
model demonstrated high operation efficiency and could further predict
the spatial distributions of O3 and UHI at a finer scale. Compared with
linear models that simply explain the relationships between feature
variables and dependent variables, coefficient represents the importance
of the feature. The larger the coefficient is, the more important the
feature is(Lee et al., 2017; Meng et al., 2016; Miri et al., 2019). SHAP
value, the visual tree model interpretation tool for machine learning, can
identify the important feature variables and represent the influence of
features in each sample (Vega García & Aznarte, 2020). The PDP can
show how a single feature variable would affect the prediction (Zhao
et al., 2020).

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L. Han et al.
Fig 14. Importance ranking diagram (left) and density scatter diagram (right) of feature variables for TEM.
4.2. Spatial relationship between O3 and UHI
At the municipal level, there are two obvious pollution regions of O3
concentration in Xi’an city. One is along the north-south direction of the
central urban area. The high O3 concentration region in the central urban
area is consistent with the high TEM area, while the high O3 concentration
and high TEM outside the central urban area do not overlap, indicating that
the influence of high TEM on O3 will appear only when there are enough
emission sources. There is a "lowland" of O3 concentration in the central
urban area in the town, i.e., the O3 concentration in the area is much lower
than the surrounding regions, which is caused by the titration of NOx to O3.
The large traffic in this area can result in higher NOx emissions. The NOx
species can consume atmospheric radicals. Since the radicals are important
precursors of O3 formation, the decrease of precursor substance can reduce
the production of O3 (Huang et al., 2018; Tan et al., 2018; Xie et al., 2016).
The other one is located in the north of Zhouzhi County and Huyi District. The
O3 pollution region in north of Zhouzhi and Huyi connects with Xianyang
city. This area is far away from the central city, industrial source and regional
transportation in this area could can high concentration of O3 concentration.
Controlling industrial source emissions and regional joint management is the
key to O3 prevention and control in this region.
4.3. Feature variables for UHI mitigation
The importance ranking diagram and density scatter diagram indi­
cated that some feature variables could affect the dependent variables
(see Figs. 13 and 14). Nevertheless, they only have very little effect on
the dependent variables. These feature variables are of little significance
in regulating of O3 and TEM. Therefore, only some feature variables are
Fig 15. PDPs for TEM and feature variables.
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selected to regulate O3 concentration and TEM. Three feature variables
can be adjusted for TEM control, and PDPs of the 3 feature variables are
plotted in Fig. 15. The higher the relative humidity is, the lower the TEM
is. Spraying water in summer is an effective method to reduce TEM
(Sussman, Dai & Roundy, 2021; Wang et al., 2020c). The larger the
green area in the 5000 m buffer region, the lower the TEM is. The effect
of green space on reducing TEM is significant (Gao, Zhao & Han, 2022;
Huang et al., 2021; Ke, Men, Zhou, Li & Zhu, 2021; Min, Lin, Duan, Jin &
Zhang, 2019; Pascal et al., 2021; Xiao, Dong, Yan, Yang, & Xiong, 2018).
Surprisingly, TEM increases with the increase of wind speed, which may
be attributed to low wind speed in summer do not reduce TEM.
4.4. Feature variables for O3 reduction
A total of 6 feature variables of O3 can be regulated, and PDPs of the
6 feature variables are plotted in Fig. 16The higher the average wind
speed is, the lower the O3 concentration is, thus improving urban
ventilation can significantly reduce O3 concentration (He et al., 2021;
Romshoo, Bhat & Beig, 2021). The higher the average TEM is, the higher
the concentration of O3 is, indicating that the reduction of TEM can
reduce the O3 concentration, and it is necessary to coordinate the
management of O3, high temperature and heat wave (Fallmann, Forkel
& Emeis, 2016; Liu et al., 2021b; Wai, Tan, Morakinyo, Chan & Lai,
2020; Wang et al., 2018; Zhu et al., 2015). The higher the humidity is,
the lower the concentration of O3 is. Since humidification is an effective
way to reduce O3, spraying water in summer can reduce TEM and dust,
and also inhibit O3 pollution (Chen et al., 2020b; Lee, Kahng, Kim &
Park, 2018; Li et al., 2021; Niu et al., 2018; Yu, 2018). The larger the
area of industrial lands in the buffer of 5000 m, the higher the
L. Han et al.
Fig 16. PDPs for O3 concentration and feature variables.
concentration of O3. It is known that industrial sources (e.g. surface
coating industry, furniture manufacturing industry, packaging and
printing industry, rubber and plastic products industry, non-metallic
mineral products industry, architectural coating industry and auto
repair industry) are O3 emission sources (He et al., 2019; Li et al., 2017;
Liu, Zhang, Han, Li & Chen, 2019; Wang, Wang & Ying, 2020b).
Therefore, some adjustment of industrial land use is necessary. The
closer to the cultivated land, the higher the concentration of O3 is. The
nitrification reaction and partitioning of soil microorganisms in agri­
cultural sources can generate NOx, and the usage of pesticide can
generate VOCs (Lee et al., 2020; Potard et al., 2017). Since NOx and
VOCs are both precursors of O3, and controlling agricultural sources is
conducive to reducing O3 concentration. When the green space area in
the 5000 m buffer is less than 5 km2, the increase of green space area has
a significant effect on the decline in O3 concentration. When the green
space area is larger than 5 km2, the downtrend becomes small. However,
previous studies have demonstrated that more green space can signifi­
cantly increase O3 concentration, and plants can emit VOCs for defense,
pollination and communication (Cai, Zhuang & Ren, 2020; Churkina,
Grote, Butler & Lawrence, 2015; Ren et al., 2017b). The reason for this is
that the contribution of VOCs from plant sources to O3 in summer is
much lower than those of anthropogenic sources. Previous studies also
proved that a large number of VOCs from plant sources in the mountains
in winter play a leading role, and their contribution is greater than those
of anthropogenic sources. Therefore, plants with low VOCs emission
should be used to increase green space area (Han, Zhao & Gu, 2021; Ren
et al., 2017a).
4.5. O3 and UHI synergistic governance strategy
UHI leads to high local temperatures in cities, and high temperatures
significantly enhance O3. VOCs and nitrogen oxides formed by vehicle
exhaust catalyze O3 production under the combined effect of high
temperatures and light radiation, and the higher, the temperature the
faster the production (Abeleira & Farmer, 2017; Berezina et al., 2020;
Jaén, Udina & Bech, 2021). This is also evidenced by the increase in O3
with temperature in Fig. 16, so mitigating UHI is an important means of
reducing O3 pollution. The strategy for the synergistic management of
O3 and UHI is firstly to reduce emission sources, including industrial and
agricultural sources; secondly, to increase the area of green space, and to
choose plants with low VOCs emission and high shading effect for the
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Sustainable Cities and Society 78 (2022) 103643
increased green space, while replacing the high VOCs emission tree
species in an orderly manner; thirdly, cities should spray and increase
humidity, which not only can reduce dust and temperature, but also
inhibit ozone generation; fourthly, to improve urban ventilation, which
is an effective way to reduce O3 and UHI. The synergistic management of
O3 and UHI is an important means to achieve sustainable urban envi­
ronment and promote sustainable urban development.
4.6. Limitations and future work
The main land use data applied here are remote sensing images. Due
to the lag of data source collection time, there is a certain difference
between land use status during pollutant data collection, which could
lead to errors in correlation analysis between feature variables and
dependent variables. In the research stage, the random forest algorithm
achieved good results, so the other machine learning algorithms were
not considered in this work. We plan to compare different algorithms in
future research. Moreover, this study considered the whole city level,
which is relatively board scale. In the next stage, we will examine the
simultaneous treatment strategy of O3 and UHI in central urban areas at
the mesoscale level, so as to build a more complete treatment system.
5. Conclusion
In this paper, the machine learning random forest algorithm was
applied to improve the LUR model, which could overcome the disad­
vantages of LUR in nonlinear fitting. A non-linear regression model with
higher accuracy and smaller error was built and predicted for O3 and
UHI. The R2 of O3 model increased from 0.4 to 0.65, and that of TEM
model increased from 0.8 to 0.93. The newly established model suffi­
ciently predicted the spatial distributions of O3 concentration and UHI.
Some machine learning interpretation methods were applied to interpret
the influence of part feature variables on O3 concentration and TEM.
Eventually, the collaborative governance strategy for O3 and UHI was
developed under the integrated interpretation framework, which con­
tributes to sustainable urban development.
Whilst LUR is still considered a classical spatial prediction model, the
introduction of machine learning can push forward this research field.
The relationships between feature variables and the dependent variables
(including O3, TEM) can be obtained by interpreting machine learning
models based on the SHAP and PDP methods. The demonstration here
L. Han et al. Sustainable Cities and Society 78 (2022) 103643

highlights the practical value of applying machine learning models Acknowledgments

rather than just staying at the prediction level. There are spatial in­
teractions between O3 concentration and UHI in the central urban area
in summer. The collaborative management of the two variables is
essential. It is important to continuously expand green space, (by
selecting tree species with low VOCs emissions), increase humidity and
reduce emission sources.
Declaration of Competing Interest
The authors report no declarations of interest.
This study was supported by the Scientific and Technological Inno­
vation Team in Key Fields of Shaanxi Province (No. 2020TD-029); the
Innovation Team Support Project of Central University Fund
(300102411401); the National Natural Science Foundation of China
(No. 11872295); the Projects of International Cooperation and Ex­
changes NSFC (No. 41861144021). The authors would like to express
their gratitude to EditSprings (https://www.editsprings.com/) for the
expert linguistic services provided.
Appendix A

See Figs. A1–A5.

Fig A1. Land use map of Xi ’an.

Fig A2. The road networks of Xi’an.

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Fig A3. Population distribution of Xi’an.

Fig A4. Locations of eighty-three air-polluting enterprises in Xi’an.

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Fig A5. Locations of printing factories, gas stations and factories in Xi’an.

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