EZ Probability > 9.1 Describing and predicting likelihood If you spun this spinner 20 times, how many times would you predict that it would land on ‘1°? What is the probability of the 1 out of 4 equal sections of the spinner is ‘1’. spinner landing on ‘1'? There is a 1 out of 4 chance of the spinner Lout of 4, or or 25%. Fangaigjon What is $ of 207 Hf there is a 1 out of 4 chance of the spinner e landing on ‘1’ you can expect the spinner to land on ‘1’ for about a quarter of the spins. | predict that the spinner will land Remember, this does not mean that the spinner ont’ five times. will definitely land on ‘1’ five times. Each time the spinner is spun there is a quarter chance that it will land on ‘1 so it is random. The more trials you do the more likely it is that the spinner will land on ‘1' a quarter of the times. 15 >9 Probability > Exercise 9.1 Focus “Y 1 @ Sofia and Marcus have been investigating probability. They are taking shapes out of bags without looking. Draw a line from each child to the bag they are describing. b One of these bags of shapes does not belong to either of the children. Complete the statements for this extra bag of shapes. The probability of taking a prism from the bag is aor Remember The probability of taking a 3D shape from the that cubes as and cuboids 1g is ____. ‘are types of prism. The probability of taking a pyramid from the bag is 116 >9.1 Describing and predicting likelihood 2 Here is a set of cards used in a game. Tasha is going to investigate the chance of taking a card with a triangle symbol. Circle the cards with a triangle symbol. b Tasha is going to take one card. Put an X next to the events below that could not occur at the same time as taking a card with a triangle symbol. Taking a card with a square symbol Taking a '2' card i Taking a card with a value greater than 4 Taking a card with an odd number 3 Tear 10 small pieces of tissue paper. Draw a circle on a piece of paper and place the paper on the floor. Drop the tissue paper pieces onto the paper on the floor. How many pieces landed inside the circle? | out of 10 pieces landed inside the circle. Conduct a probability experiment to see how many pieces land inside the circle in 50 trials. Record your results in the table on the next page, then describe the results of your experiment. 17>9 Probability > | Hit © The experiment showed that there was a| —_| out of 50 chance of O pieces of tissue landing in the circle. The experiment showed that there was a ‘out of 50 chance of 10 pieces of tissue landing in the circle. The experiment showed What do you think might have affected your results? us >Practice 5 How could you change the experiment so that you would get different results? What do you predict would be different about your results in the new experiment? Rex has four cards numbered 1 to 4. Nina has five cards numbered 1 to 5. Alex wants to take a number 3 card. He cannot look at the cards. Is he more likely to take a ‘3' card from Rex or from Nina? Explain why. This is a net of a six-sided dice. Number the net so that: There is a 50% chance of throwing a number greater than 5. There is a greater than 50% chance that the number thrown will be even. There is a 0% chance that the number thrown will be a multiple of 3. The chance of throwing a number less than 0 is greater than 0%, but less than 50%. Kapil says that rolling a ‘4’ and rolling an odd number on an ordinary 6-sided dice are mutually exclusive. Is Kapil correct? Complete the sentence. Two events are mutually exclusive when they 119 >9 Probability > 7 a Whats the chance of spinning a a | out of b_ Ifyou spin the spinner 50 times how many 2s would you expect to see? © Use a pencil and paperclip like this to complete the spinner. Conduct the experiment by using the spinner 50 times. Use this space to draw a tally chart for your outcomes. Describe the results of your experiment.9.1 Describing and predicting likelihood d- What would happen to the number of 2s spun if the spinner was spun a greater number of times? Explain your answer. Challenge 8 Some children are members of a tennis club. This Carroll diagram shows the children in the club. Cheng Dan Farrukh Scott David Gemma Sunita Talia a How many children are members of the club? b One child is chosen at random for a lesson. What is the chance that: i the child is not a boy and is under 13 years old? ____ out of ji the child is a boy who is not under 13 years old? ______ out of iii the child is a boy? _______ out of iv the child is not under 13 years old? _______ out of v__ the child is not a boy who is under 13 years old? _____ out of. 121 >9 Probability > 9 Lola has six t-shirts. She takes a t-shirt at random. These are four events that could occur when Lola takes a t-shirt. Event A: The shirt has a picture of an animal on it. Event B: The shirt has a picture of fruit on it. Hf Event A and : The shirt is striped. Event C: The shirt is ees Event D: The shirt has a collar. mutually exclusive puta tick in the grey box. Tick the pairs of events that are mutually exclusive for Lola's set of t-shirts. A E Write your own Event E which is mutually exclusive to Events A and B, but not mutually exclusive to Events C and D. Event E: ‘Complete the table for Event E. 122 >9.1 Describing and predicting likelihood 10 Marco is going to conduct a chance experiment to see how close his predictions are to the outcomes of the experiment. He has put 20 balls into a bag. There are 4 different colours of balls. He will record the outcomes when he takes and replaces a ball 100 times from the bag. These are his predictions: + lexpect to take a red ball 20 times. + lexpect that none of the balls | take will be blue. + lexpect to take a yellow ball 25 times. + lexpect to take a purple ball 50 times. + expect to take a green ball 5 times. 2 Colour the picture to show what colour balls Marco put into the bag. b Draw 5 more coloured balls in the bag. Write your predictions for how many of each colour you expect to take if you repeated Marco's experiment now. lexpect to take red balls. lexpect to take blue balls. lexpect to take| | yellow balls. lexpect to take| | purple balls. lexpecttotake| | green balls. ¢ Ifyou carried out the experiment would you expect your results to be exactly as you predicted? Why? 123 >