MeetUp

IBD MeetUp
Temperament,
Temptation & Time
November 15, 2022
Roy Mattox Wesley Mattox, CFA, CMT

Chief Market Strategist Chief Technical Strategist
Portfolio Manager Portfolio Manager
(704) 619-7445 (704) 877-1762
Roy.Mattox@IFSInvest.com Wesley.Mattox@IFSInvest.com
Follow @RoyLMattox Follow @WesleyJMattox
Investors Business Daily
Charlotte Meetup Group
What We’re About
1,794
We aim to educate and connect investors in a vibrant and active community in Charlotte. We focus on the combination of technical and fundamental analysis
featured in the book, "How to Make Money in Stocks" by William O'Neil. With IBD's educational support, members hone their investor skills and work to master
the intricacies of the stock market. We cover CANSLIM concepts exclusively in the monthly meetings and utilize educational material designed both for novice
and experienced investors. Members are encouraged to participate and discuss the current State of the Market as well as provide input on Leading Stocks in
Leading Groups in the Market.
2
Disclaimers
The content in this presentation or in Discussions on the Meetup website should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell a security. All information is intended for educational
purposes only and in no way should be considered investment advice. Integrated Financial Strategies, LLC does not endorse, recommend, advise, or in any way construe the discussions in the
Charlotte IBD Meetup group as investment advice to be relied on. Roy Mattox provides information solely for educational purposes based on his experiences, opinions, and actual trading history
over the past 30 years. As such, he is not compensated by anyone for hosting the discussion. These discussions are for educational purposes between members of the Meetup Group. Mr.
Mattox is strictly acting as a host and facilitator to provide meaningful discussions about individual stocks. Members of the group who provide input on individual equities is done, likewise, to
provide opinions of an educational nature and are not to be relied on as investment advice. All investments, especially stocks are speculative in nature and involves substantial risk of loss. I
encourage investors to invest carefully. I also encourage investors to get personal advice from their professional investment advisor and to make independent investigations before acting on
information that we may discuss. Much of our information is derived directly from information published by Investors Business Daily and which I believe is reliable, but is without independent
verification. Therefore, I cannot assure you that the information is accurate or complete. I do not in any way warrant or guarantee the success of any action you take from my comments. Past
performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. All investments carry risk and all investment decisions of an individual remain the responsibility of that individual. There is no
guarantee that systems, indicators, or signals will result in profits or that they will not result in losses. All investors are advised to fully understand all risks associated with any kind of investing
they choose to do. Hypothetical or simulated performance is not indicative of future results. Unless specifically noted otherwise, all return examples provided in the literature and publications are
based on hypothetical or simulated investing. I make no representations or warranties that any investor will, or is likely to, achieve profits similar to those shown, because hypothetical or
simulated performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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Current Quarterly Earnings growth of at least 25% for the past 2 quarters. Also watch for quarterly sales and profit margins that are
C growing.
A Annual Earnings growth of at least 25% for each of the past 3-5 years. Also watch for return on equity (ROE) of at least 17%.
N New — Look for companies with new products, new services, new conditions in the industry, new management, or new price highs.
S Supply and Demand — Look for big volume increases on days of upside trading.
L Leader or Laggard — Look for the top stocks, both fundamentally and technically, in the very best performing sectors and industry groups.
I Institutional Sponsorship — Watch what pension funds, mutual funds, banks and other institutions are buying.
M Market Direction — Three out of four stocks follow the market, therefore make sure the market is in a confirmed uptrend.
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Process Overview
Technical Fundamental Macroeconomic

Analysis Analysis Analysis
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Technical Analysis
Price Breadth Sentiment Ratio Analysis
• MACD • % of Stocks > 50-day MA • NAAIM Exposure Index • Growth vs. Value (IVW:IVE)
• Price Phase • % of Stocks > 200-day MA • VIX • Small Cap vs. Large Cap
(IWM:SPY)
• RSI • Advance-Decline Line • CBOE Put-Call Ratio
• Stocks vs. Treasuries
• Stochastics • New Highs / New Lows • ICE BofA U.S. High-Yield (SPY:TLT and RSP:TLT)
Index Option Adjusted Spread
• SK-SD • Bullish Percentage • Treasuries vs. Junk Bonds
• CFTC Non-Commercial Net- (TLT:JNK)
• Point & Figure Long Positioning
• ROC • Implied & Realized Volatility
• Trend
⮚ Short: 10-day EMA > 21-

day EM
⮚ Intermediate – 21-day EMA

> 50-day MA
⮚ Long – Above 30-week MA
Technical Analysis Fundamental Analysis Macroeconomic Analysis
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Fundamental Analysis
Investors Business Daily Current Quarterly Earnings growth of at least 25% for the past 2 quarters. Also watch for quarterly
• CANSLIM
C sales and profit margins that are growing.
• MarketSmith Annual Earnings growth of at least 25% for each of the past 3-5 years. Also watch for return on equity
• Composite Rating
A (ROE) of at least 17%.
• EPS Rank New — Look for companies with new products, new services, new conditions in the industry, new
N management, or new price highs.
• RS Rank
• Sales, Margins, ROE

S Supply and Demand — Look for big volume increases on days of upside trading.
• Investors.com
Leader or Laggard — Look for the top stocks, both fundamentally and technically, in the very best
• 3rd Party Research L performing sectors and industry groups.
Institutional Sponsorship — Watch what pension funds, mutual funds, banks and other institutions are
I buying.
Market Direction — Three out of four stocks follow the market, therefore make sure the market is in a
M confirmed uptrend.
7
Macroeconomic Analysis
Hedgeye Research – Growth, Inflation, Policy Model
Quad 1 Quad 2
Growth Accelerating as Inflation Decelerates Growth Accelerating as Inflation Accelerates
Monetary Policy Bias: Neutral Monetary Policy Bias: Hawkish
Market Narrative: Goldilocks Market Narrative: Reflation
Quad 4 Quad 3
Growth Slowing as Inflation Decelerates Growth Slowing as Inflation Accelerates
Monetary Policy Bias: Dovish Monetary Policy Bias: Neutral
Market Narrative: Deflation Market Narrative: Stagnation/Stagflation
Source: Hedgeye Research; https://app.hedgeye.com/ 8

Quad 1: Goldilocks Quad 2: Reflation Quad 3: Stagflation Quad 4: Deflation
Best Asset Classes: Best Asset Classes: Best Asset Classes: Best Asset Classes:
Equities, Credit, Commodities, FX Commodities, Equities, Credit, FX Gold, Commodities, Fixed Income Fixed Income, Gold, USD
Worst Asset Classes: Worst Asset Classes: Worst Asset Classes: Worst Asset Classes:
Fixed Income, USD Fixed Income, USD Credit Commodities, Equities, Credit, FX
Best Equity Sectors: Best Equity Sectors: Best Equity Sectors: Best Equity Sectors:
Tech, Consumer Discretionary, Materials, Tech, Consumer Discretionary, Utilities, Tech, Energy, Industrials, Consumer Staples, Utilities, REITs, Health
Industrials, Telecom Industrials, Energy, Financials Consumer Discretionary Care, Telecom
Worst Equity Sectors: Worst Equity Sectors: Worst Equity Sectors: Worst Equity Sectors:
Utilities, REITs, Consumer Staples, Telecom, Utilities, REITs, Consumer Financials, REITs, Materials, Telecom Energy, Tech, Industrials, Financials,
Financials, Energy Staples, Healthcare Materials
Consumer Staples
Best Equity Style Factors: Best Equity Style Factors: Best Equity Style Factors:
Best Equity Style Factors:
High Beta, Momentum, Leverage, Secular Secular Growth, High Beta, Momentum, Low Beta, Dividend Yield, Quality,
Growth, Mid Caps Secular Growth, Momentum, Mid Caps,
Cyclical Growth, Small Caps Defensives, Value
Low Beta, Quality
Worst Equity Style Factors: Worst Equity Style Factors: Worst Equity Style Factors:
Worst Equity Style Factors:
Low Beta, Defensives, Value, Dividend Low Beta, Value, Dividend Yield, High Beta, Momentum, Cyclicals, Secular
Yield, Small Caps Small Caps, Dividend Yield, Value,
Defensives, Size Growth, Leverage
Defensives, Size
Best Fixed Income Sectors: Best Fixed Income Sectors: Best Fixed Income Sectors:
Best Fixed Income Sectors:
BDCs, Convertibles, HY Credit, EM $ Convertibles, BDCs, Preferreds, Long Duration Treasuries, Medium
Debt, Leveraged Loans Munis, EM $ Debt, Long Duration
Leveraged Loans, HY Credit Duration Treasuries, IG Credit, Munis
Treasuries, TIPS, Treasury Belly
Worst Fixed Income Sectors: Worst Fixed Income Sectors: Worst Fixed Income Sectors:
Worst Fixed Income Sectors:
TIPS, Short Duration Treasuries, MBS, Long Bond, Treasury Belly, Munis, IG Preferreds, EM Local Currency, BDCs,
Treasury Belly, Long Bond BDCs, Preferreds, Convertibles,
Credit Leveraged Loans, TIPS
Leveraged Loans, HY Credit
Source: Hedgeye Research; https://app.hedgeye.com/ 9

History of Bear Markets – Dow Jones Industrial Average

-10%
1953
1971 2016 1949
1969 1980
2011 1984 1957
1998 1923
-20%
1990 1934
1939 2022 1947 1914
1982 1978 1911
1966
1962 2001
-30%
2002
1970
1987 1933
2020
-40% 1917 1942
% Decline
1974 1921 1903

1929
1938 1907
-50%
2009
-60%
Bear (No Recession)
Avg. Bear (No Recession)

-70%
Bear (Recession)
Avg. Bear (Recession)

-80%
Avg. All Bears
1932
-90%
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
Days
Source: Ned Davis Research 10

Nasdaq 6%+ Days Over the Last 40 Years
11
Nasdaq 2000-2002 (6% up days marked)
12
Nasdaq 2008-2009 (6% up days marked)
13
Nasdaq 2021-2022
14
Charlotte Meetup Group Biggest Bounce From the Biggest Losers
15
0%
2%
8%
(4%)
(2%)
4%
6%
10%
12%
14%
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
CPI y/y % Change
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Source: BLS
16
PPI y/y % Change

14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
(2%)
(4%)
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
PPI y/y % change
Source: BLS 17
Inflation Forecasts
10.0% Headline CPI YoY
Hedgeye Estimates - Nowcast Model

9.0% 8.6%
Hedgeye Estimates - Comparative Base Effects Model 8.3%
8.0%
8.0% 7.6%
Bloomberg Consensus Estimates 7.4%
7.0% 6.7% 6.7%
6.0%
6.0%
5.3%
4.9% 4.8%
5.0%
4.2%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0% 2.1%
1.9%
2.0% 1.8%
1.2% 1.2%
1.0%
0.4%
0.0%
3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22E 1Q23E 2Q23E
Source: Hedgeye Research 18

Markets Pricing in 50bp Rate Hike in December
86%
14%
Source: CME Group 19

Fed Funds Futures Next Year

5.50%
Today 1 Month Ago 3 Months Ago
5.00%
Expected Fed Funds Rate
4.50%
4.00%
3.50%
3.00%
Federal Reserve Policy Dates

Implied Fed Funds Rate by December

5.0%
4.56%
4.42%
4.0% Current Target

3.77% Range
(3.75%-4.00%)
3.0%
2.43%
2.0%
1.0% 1.30%
0.0%
Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22

3m and 10yr Treasury Yields
22
Yield Curve (10yr – 2yr)
23
S&P 500 vs. 5 Year Treasury Yield
24
Bond Yields vs. S&P 500 (1972-1975)
25
Political Alignment Market Performance

Dow Jones Industrials Average Annual % Change 1949-2021
Democrat President / Split Congress
Democrat President / Republican Congress
Democrat President / Democrat Congress
Republican President / Split Congress
Republican President / Democrat Congress
Republican President / Republican Congress
Democrat Congress
Republican Congress
Democrat President
Republican President
All Years
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0%
Source: StockTradersAlmanac.com 26
Charlotte Meetup Group S&P 500
27
Charlotte Meetup Group QQQ
28
Charlotte Meetup Group FFTY
29
Charlotte Meetup Group Nasdaq & MACD
30
Charlotte Meetup Group Nasdaq & RSI
31
Charlotte Meetup Group Nasdaq & MA Crossovers
32
Charlotte Meetup Group Nasdaq & 30-Week Moving Average
33
Charlotte Meetup Group S&P 500 and % Above 50-Day
34
Charlotte Meetup Group S&P 500 and % Above 200-Day
35
Charlotte Meetup Group Nasdaq and % Above 50-Day
36
Charlotte Meetup Group Nasdaq and % Above 200-Day
37
Charlotte Meetup Group S&P 500 & Advance/Decline Line
38
Charlotte Meetup Group Nasdaq & Advance/Decline Line
39
Charlotte Meetup Group Nasdaq & Net New Highs
40
Charlotte Meetup Group Nasdaq & Net New Highs (5 Years)
41
Charlotte Meetup Group Nasdaq & Net New Highs (20 Years)
42
Charlotte Meetup Group McClellan Oscillator & S&P 500
43
Charlotte Meetup Group VIX & S&P 500
44
Charlotte Meetup Group VIX & S&P 500 (5 Years)
45
Charlotte Meetup Group Nasdaq & Active Manager Exposure
46
Charlotte Meetup Group Nasdaq & Bulls vs. Bears
47
Charlotte Meetup Group Nasdaq & Net AAII Bull/Bear Sentiment
48
Charlotte Meetup Group 5-Day MA Put/Call Ratio
49
Charlotte Meetup Group 5-Day MA Equity Put/Call Ratio
50
Charlotte Meetup Group High Yield Spreads vs. S&P 500 (Daily)
51
Charlotte Meetup Group High Yield Spreads vs. S&P 500 (Weekly)
52
Charlotte Meetup Group All-World Index (ex-US)
53
Charlotte Meetup Group Growth vs. Value
54
Charlotte Meetup Group Bitcoin
55
Charlotte Meetup Group Ethereum
56
Charlotte Meetup Group Gold (Daily)
57
Charlotte Meetup Group U.S. Dollar (Weekly)
58
Charlotte Meetup Group WTI Crude
59
Charlotte Meetup Group TLT
60
Charlotte Meetup Group Barclays High Yield Bond ETF
61
Helpful Investor Resources
Buy How to Make Money in Stocks by William J. O’Neil

Investors.com
MarketSmith
For more information or a complimentary consultation, please feel free to contact us directly at (704) 643-5000 or email us at roy.mattox@ifsinvest.com or
wesley.mattox@ifsinvest.com
For more details on how we manage money on a discretionary basis for our clients at Integrated Financial Strategies click here.
Roy Mattox Wesley Mattox, CFA, CMT

Chief Market Strategist, Portfolio Manager Chief Technical Strategist, Portfolio Manager
Email: Roy.Mattox@IFSInvest.com Email: Wesley.Mattox@IFSInvest.com
Office: (704) 643-5000 Office: (704) 643-5000
Mobile: (704) 619-7445 Mobile: (704) 877-1762
Twitter: @RoyLMattox Twitter: @WesleyJMattox
62

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IBD MeetUp

Roy Mattox Wesley Mattox, CFA, CMT

What We’re About

Technical Fundamental Macroeconomic

⮚ Short: 10-day EMA > 21-

⮚ Intermediate – 21-day EMA

⮚ Long – Above 30-week MA

Technical Analysis Fundamental Analysis Macroeconomic Analysis

• Sales, Margins, ROE

Technical Analysis Fundamental Analysis Macroeconomic Analysis

Technical Analysis Fundamental Analysis Macroeconomic Analysis

Source: Hedgeye Research; https://app.hedgeye.com/ 8

Technical Analysis Fundamental Analysis Macroeconomic Analysis

Source: Hedgeye Research; https://app.hedgeye.com/ 9

History of Bear Markets – Dow Jones Industrial Average

1974 1921 1903

Avg. Bear (No Recession)

Avg. Bear (Recession)

Source: Ned Davis Research 10

Nasdaq 6%+ Days Over the Last 40 Years

Nasdaq 2000-2002 (6% up days marked)

Nasdaq 2008-2009 (6% up days marked)

PPI y/y % Change

Hedgeye Estimates - Nowcast Model

7.0% 6.7% 6.7%

Source: Hedgeye Research 18

Markets Pricing in 50bp Rate Hike in December

Source: CME Group 19

Fed Funds Futures Next Year

Federal Reserve Policy Dates

Source: CME Group 20

Implied Fed Funds Rate by December

4.0% Current Target

Source: CME Group 21

3m and 10yr Treasury Yields

Yield Curve (10yr – 2yr)

S&P 500 vs. 5 Year Treasury Yield

Bond Yields vs. S&P 500 (1972-1975)

Political Alignment Market Performance

Democrat President / Split Congress

Democrat President / Republican Congress

Democrat President / Democrat Congress

Republican President / Split Congress

Republican President / Democrat Congress

Republican President / Republican Congress

Buy How to Make Money in Stocks by William J. O’Neil

Roy Mattox Wesley Mattox, CFA, CMT

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