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*Source: http://www.arifhabibltd.com/downloads/FertilizerSector2015.pdf
Product Manufactured Annual Capacity (metric tons)*
Urea 2,048,000
Urea 551,000
DAP 650,000
Urea 2,275,000
NPK
Urea
Urea 445,000
Urea 92,000
NP 305,000
CAN 450,000
Urea 500,000
CAN 420,000
NPK 360,000
Urea 467,000
SSP
SSP
Exhibit 2: Fertilizer Supply Demand Situation in Pakistan
(000 Tonnes)
Rabi (Oct-Mar) 2013-14 Kharif (Apr-Sep) 2014 Rabi (Oct-Mar) 2014-15 Kharif (Apr-Sep) 2015
Urea DAP Urea DAP Urea DAP Urea
Opening stock 175 307 386 99 184 430 214
Imports 862 526 122 524 576 498 294
Domestic Production 2,439 292 2,451 400 2,493 332 2,686
Total availability 3,476 1,125 2,959 1,023 3,253 1,260 3,194
Offtake/Demand 3,099 1,075 2,716 586 3,100 1,140 2,425
Write on/off (1) 6 (59) (7) (2) (2) 2
Closing stock 376 56 184 430 151 118 771
Balance Sheets
Source: Bloomberg
2016
69,537
(52,098)
17,439
(8,762)
8,677
(3,109)
(157)
8,223
13,634
(4,351)
9,283
6.91
84
1,040
7,585
11,686
7,669
28,064
121
70,168
105,135
34,967
4,451
74,740
102,804
7,355
7,081
9,620
24,057
29,380
7,718
37,098
61,155
16,442
25,207
41,648
102,804
Exhibit 5: Fertilizer Industry Data
Company Name Price as at Shares Outstanding Total Debt Revenue (million EPS
Dec 31, 2016 (million) (million PKR) PKR) (PKR)
(PKR)
Engro Fertilizer 68 1,330.9 36,461 69,537.3 7.0
Fatima Fertilizer 36.9 2,100.0 34,964 33,764.6 4.7
Fauji Fertilizer Co. 104.4 1,272.2 54,368 75,377.9 9.4
Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim 51.2 934.1 66,740 49,222.2 1.0
Source: Bloomberg
Beta
0.91
0.86
1.04
Exhibit 6: Capital Market Data and Other Related Information
Source: Bloomberg
0.048618215
0.048781494
0.048576054
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Exhibit 8: Cost of Capital Estimation Report
Engro Fertilizers is financed through both debt and equity. Therefore, the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) method is appropriate fo
the company. To calculate the WACC, the appropriate weights of debt and equity, the cost of debt and cost of equity are required. Followin
are the detailed steps:
Equity:
As per the above data, the weight of debt (wd) is 0.47 and that of equity (we) is 0.53.
Cost of Debt, kd
To estimate the cost of debt, I have divided the interest expense for 2016 by the total debt of the company. The cost of debt is 8.53%.
Cost of Equity, ke
For the cost of equity, I have used the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). Yield on the 12-month market treasury bill, 5.9489%, is assume
to be the risk free rate andthe risk premium is 6%, as indicated by you. Since the beta of Engro Fertilizers is not given, I used the beta of it
closest competitor, Fauji Fertilizers, in my calculations. It is 0.86. Putting all the numbers in the CAPM equation:
7,081
29,380
36,461 ---- 47% of total capital
xpense for 2016 by the total debt of the company. The cost of debt is 8.53%.
ng model (CAPM). Yield on the 12-month market treasury bill, 5.9489%, is assumed
dicated by you. Since the beta of Engro Fertilizers is not given, I used the beta of its
t is 0.86. Putting all the numbers in the CAPM equation:
tilizers is 9.9%.
Exhibit 9: Assumptions for Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
3% 4% 3% 2% 2%
30% 30% 29% 21% 18%
17% 17% 17% 10% 8%
25% 25% 24% 19% 14%
3% 3% 3% 2% 2%
0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
48% 48% 48% 48% 48%
52% 52% 52% 52% 52%