Landscape and Urban Planning 204 (2020) 103937

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Landscape and Urban Planning

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Suitable trees for urban landscapes in the Republic of Korea under climate T
change
Jiyeon Kima, Dong Kun Leeb, Ho Gul Kimc,
⁎

a
Future Housing Planning Office, Land & Housing Corporation, Jinju 52852, Republic of Korea
b
Department of Landscape Architecture and Rural System Engineering, Seoul National University, Seoul 08826, Republic of Korea
c
Department of Human Environment Design, Cheongju University, Cheongju 28503, Republic of Korea

ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT

Keywords: Climate change is one of the important causes of extreme weather events such as heat waves and heavy rainfalls,
Urban tree with can lead to severe consequences in urban areas. Trees in urban areas can reduce environmental problems
Ensemble model related to climate change, and they are important for developing sustainable practices in urban planning.
Species distribution model Climate is an important factor for the growth and survival of urban trees. There have been studies on species
RCP 4.5
distribution models to predict potential and suitable habitats for vulnerable trees under future climate change.
RCP 8.5
However, these studies have focused mainly on natural or forest trees. For sustainable landscape and urban
planning in response to climate change and complex environmental problems, it is essential to study the effect of
climate change on urban trees. Therefore, we focused on the effects of climate change on urban trees. We
identified the suitable climate range for 13 most commonly planted urban tree species in the Republic of Korea.
We estimated the changes in the suitable climate range with climate change for each urban tree and suggested
suitable planting zones for each urban tree. Selecting appropriate urban trees by considering current climate
suitability and future climate change can help develop environmental conditions for their successful survival and
growth. Our results can support decision making in the landscape and urban planning process by providing
scientific evidence. Furthermore, the research process and methods can be utilized in other countries that have
environmental conditions similar to those in the Republic of Korea.

1. Introduction
Complex environmental problems such as climate change, en-
vironmental pollution, and overcrowding are common in urban areas
(Young & McPherson, 2013). Climate change is one of the important
causes of extreme weather events such as heat waves and heavy rain-
falls, with can lead to severe consequences in urban areas (Camarasa
Belmonte & Soriano García, 2012; Norton et al., 2015). Landscape ex-
perts and urban planners have focused on solving these complex en-
vironmental problems (Steiner, 2014; Byrne, Lo, & Jianjun, 2015).
Trees in urban areas have valuable functions such as mitigation of the
urban heat island effect, regulation of microclimate and hydrology,
provision of leisure spaces, and sequestration of carbon dioxide, all of
which contribute to mitigating environmental problems caused by cli-
mate change (Moore, 2013; Thijs et al., 2015; Lanza & Stone, 2016;
Nitschke et al., 2017). Urban trees are defined as tree species that are
used for landscape architecture in urban areas and are an important
component of landscape and urban planning (Hall, Handley & Ennos,
2012).
More than half of the world’s population lives in urban areas (Peijun
& Deyong, 2014). Therefore, it is necessary to study the effects of cli-
mate change on trees planted in urban areas. However, so far, studies
have focused mainly on the changes in the potential distribution of
natural or forest trees, and this can be attributed to various reasons.
First, it is difficult to collect sufficient data to conduct research. Second,
urban trees can be managed by humans, and therefore, they are not
considered vulnerable to climate change. For sustainable landscape and
urban planning in response to complex environmental problems, in-
cluding climate change, it is essential to study the effect of climate
change on urban trees.
Climate is an important factor that regulates the growth and sur-
vival of trees (Nitschke et al., 2017). Numerous studies have been
conducted to assess the potential effects of climate change on trees. The
major effects are the changes in species distribution (Lee & Kim, 2007;

⁎
Corresponding author at: Major in Landscape Urban Planning, Department of Human Environment Design, Cheongju University, 298 Daeseong-ro, Cheongwon-
gu, Cheongju-si, Chungcheongbuk-do, Republic of Korea.
E-mail address: khgghk87@gmail.com (H.G. Kim).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2020.103937
Received 3 February 2020; Received in revised form 30 August 2020; Accepted 30 August 2020
Available online 10 September 2020
0169-2046/ © 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
J. Kim, et al.
Park, Yang, & Jang, 2010; Ahn et al., 2015; Park, Lee, & Lee, 2014; Lee,
2018; Stas et al., 2020), increase in mortality and pest damage due to
extreme climate conditions (Allen et al., 2010; Carnicer et al., 2011; Niu
et al., 2014; Yun et al., 2014; Nitschke et al., 2017), and changes in the
growth rate in response to increased carbon dioxide level (Granda et al.,
2014; Sánchez-Salguero et al., 2017). Species distribution models have
been used to predict potential and suitable habitats for trees that are
vulnerable to future climate change.
Climate has been changing rapidly in the Republic of Korea (ROK).
It is predicted that by 2070, the average temperature will increase by
1.3 °C to 5.2 °C, and the average rainfall will increase by up to 29.6%
(Choe et al., 2017). The average rate of climate change in the ROK is
faster than the global average. In the field of landscape construction,
the changes in planting areas and damage to certain tree species due to
climate change have been reported (Land and Housing Institute Korea,
2017). Due to climate change, the distribution of urban trees is chan-
ging. Thus, there is a need to take appropriate measures to alleviate the
effects of climate change on urban trees.
However, scientific and systematic research on this issue is in-
adequate. Landscape construction standard specification provides in-
formation on appropriate urban tree species for each region, but this
information was compiled approximately 30 years ago (The Korea
Ministry of Land and Infrastructure and Transport, 2016). A pre-
liminary study on the improvement in planting conditions by climate
change revised the planting area map based on the average minimum
temperature in January (Land and Housing Institute Korea, 2017).
However, there is a lack of discussion on the adequacy of planting
species in each region. Currently, there is no practical standard re-
ference based on climate change to select appropriate urban trees.
In the present study, we identified the suitable climate range for 13
most commonly planted urban tree species in the ROK. Based on the
estimated changes in the suitable climate range with climate change for
each urban tree, we suggest suitable planting zones. Additionally, we
compared the suitable planting areas and the corresponding mortality
rate of each urban tree to verify the reliability of our results. Selecting
appropriate urban trees by considering current climate suitability and
future climate change can help develop favorable environmental con-
ditions for their successful survival and growth. The results of this study
can be used as a standard reference for effective decision making in the
landscape and urban planning process. Furthermore, the findings can
be extrapolated to other parts of the world with similar climate change
effects and environmental conditions as the ROK, such as Asian and
European countries.
2. Methods
2.1. Study design
This study consisted of three phases. First, variables were developed
using climate data corresponding to the distribution points of 13 most
commonly planted urban tree species. Second, a model was constructed
to explain the relationship between the distribution points and vari-
ables. The BIOMOD2 package (Thuiller et al., 2016) in R ver. 3.1.2 was
used, and five algorithms were selected by evaluating individual
models. The ensemble method, which considers model reliability, was
used to estimate suitable climate ranges for each species. Third, the
predicted suitable climate ranges were then compared with the mor-
tality rate of each species to assess the reliability of the results (Fig. 1).
2.2. Scope of study
The spatial scope of this study was the entire ROK, which has four
seasons. The annual average temperature range is 10 °C–15 °C, and the
average temperature in August, the hottest month, is 23 °C–26 °C and
that in January, the coldest month, is −6°C to 3 °C. The annual average
rainfall range is 1200–1500 mm, and rainfall is concentrated in the
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Landscape and Urban Planning 204 (2020) 103937
summer, with a rather dry climate in the spring, autumn, and winter
(National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, 2018).
In this study, we set the present as the average of 1970–2000, short-
term future as the 2050s (average of 2041–2060), and long-term future
as the 2070s (average of 2061–2080). Thirteen widely planted, native
or naturally distributed urban trees in the ROK were selected (Land and
Housing Institute Korea, 2017). These target urban trees were classified
into three groups, namely, evergreen coniferous, evergreen broadleaf,
and deciduous broadleaf trees (Table 1).
We subdivided the country into three geographical regions, namely
the northern, central, and southern regions based on the geographical
and climatic characteristics. The climate of the ROK is divided into
northern, central, and southern climate types based on the warmth
index (WI). The standard WI for the northern, central, and southern
regions is 55–85, 85–100, and > 100, respectively (Yim & Kira, 1975).
Incheon, Seoul, Gyeonggi Province, and Gangwon Province were clas-
sified as the northern region; Chungcheongnam Province, Chung-
cheongbuk Province, Jeollabuk Province, Gyeongsangbuk Province,
Sejong, Daejeon, and Daegu were classified as the central region; and
Jeollanam Province, Gyeongsangnam Province, Busan, Ulsan, Gwangju,
and Jeju Island were classified as the southern region (Fig. 2).
2.3. Establishment of data and variables
2.3.1. Location data for trees
The data of tree distribution were obtained using the vascular plant
distribution map of the Korean Peninsula. It includes data from 2003 to
2010 (Korea National Arboretum, 2010) (Table 2 and Fig. 3). Sampling
bias can lead to inaccurate spatial auto-correlated occurrence points
and can distort the accuracy of the model. Therefore, one grid was set to
2.5 min (~25 km2), and duplicate points were removed (Pearson et al.,
2007; Phillips et al., 2009; Hijmans & Elith, 2013; Lee, 2018).
2.3.2. Climate data
2.3.2.1. Current condition. For the current climate data, the Bioclim
(Bioclimatic) variables were collected from the WorldClim-Global
Climate Database (Hijmans et al., 2005). The variables for
constructing the model of the target species were selected from the
19 Bioclim variables provided by WorldClim (http://www.bioclim.
org). The spatial resolution was 2.5 min and the temporal resolution
was from 1970 to 2000. WorldClim provides Bioclim data on a global
scale. Thus, we extracted the Bioclim data of the ROK considering the
spatial scope of this study (125.08–128.70E; 33.11–38.61N).
For the selection process, we analyzed correlations among the 19
Bioclim variables and excluded those with the absolute correlation
coefficient greater than 0.6 (Jung et al., 2012). Finally, we selected
three Bioclim variables (namely, Bio1, Bio11, and Bio12) that have
been shown to have a major influence on vegetation growth and sur-
vival in previous studies. Bio1 (Annual Mean Temperature) is related to
the WI, which is important for the plant growing season (Yim & Kira,
1975). Bio11 (Mean Temperature of the Coldest Quarter) is related to
plant survival because it reflects the minimum temperature of the
coldest month. Bio12 (Annual Precipitation) is related to the total hy-
dration required for the growth of plants (O’Donnell & Ignizio, 2012).
2.3.2.2. Future condition. For future climate data, we constructed
future Bioclim variables of Representative Concentration Pathway
(RCP) scenarios 4.5 and 8.5, which were estimated using the General
Circulation Model (GCM) of the Earth System configuration of Hadley
Centre Global Environment Model version 2 (HadGEM-ES). The spatial
resolution was the same as that used for the present climate data and
the temporal resolution was the 2050s (2041–2060 average) and 2070s
(2061–2080 average).
RCP 4.5 assumed the future with the appropriate implementation of
greenhouse gas countermeasures and RCP 8.5 assumed the worst case
due to continuous greenhouse gas emission (Korea Meteorological
J. Kim, et al. Landscape and Urban Planning 204 (2020) 103937

Fig. 1. Schematic representation of the study design.

Table 1
Target urban tree species.
Class Species Family Cold hardiness Pollution hardiness Drought hardiness Ease of transplantation

Evergreen coniferous tree Pinus densiflora (pine) Pinaceae Good Bad Good Bad
Pinus koraiensis (nut pine) Pinaceae Good Normal Normal Good
Abies holophylla (fir tree) Pinaceae Good Very bad Normal Normal
Taxus cuspidate (yew) Taxaceae Good Good Normal Bad
Platycladus orientalis (thuja) Cupressaceae Good Good Normal Good
Evergreen broadleaf tree Daphniphyllum macropodum Daphniphyllaceae Bad Normal Normal Normal
(daphniphyllum)
Camellia japonica (camellia) Theaceae Good Good Bad Normal
Ilex rotunda (round leaf holly) Aquifoliaceae Bad Good Normal Normal
Machilus thunbergii (silver magnolia) Lauraceae Bad Good Normal Good
Deciduous broadleaftree Crataegus pinnatifida (hawthorn) Rosaceae Good Normal Normal Normal
Chionanthus retusus (retusa fringetree) Oleaceae Normal Good Normal Normal
Betula platyphylla (birch) Betulaceae Good Bad Normal Bad
Celtis sinensis (hackberry) Ulmaceae Good Good Normal Normal

Administration, 2012). A recent study confirmed that RCP 8.5 is closer
to the current pattern of climate change (Hayhoe et al., 2017). There-
fore, RCP 4.5 should be recognized as a scenario for a better future, and
not a scenario that reflects current pattern.
2.4. Modeling and ensemble methods
2.4.1. Species distribution models
BIOMOD2, an R package, was used to create an ensemble model for
predicting climate suitability for the target species. Among the models
provided by BIOMOD2, the following five machine learning algorithms
were used: Maximum entropy algorithm (MAXENT), Random forest
(RF), Artificial neural network (ANN), Generalized boosted regression

3
J. Kim, et al. Landscape and Urban Planning 204 (2020) 103937

Fig. 2. Subdivision of the ROK into three regions.

model (GBM), and Classification tree analysis (CTA). The results of the
model were not always the same because machine learning-based
models can produce different results for each run. Therefore, each
model was run five times (Kim, 2017). Except for MAXENT, all data
points were needed. To fill missing data, we generated pseudo-absence
points using background data extracted by random sampling of 1000
points (Phillips et al., 2009). Eighty percent of the empirical data for
each species was used to train the model, and 20% was used to verify
the sensitivity and specificity, and to analyze model performance.
Twenty-five model runs were generated for each species (5 algo-
rithms × 5 runs).
& Bell, 1997; Ahn et al., 2015; Kim, 2017). The x-axis of the ROC curve
is 1-specificity and the y-axis is sensitivity (specificity). The greater the
area under the curve (AUC), the higher the accuracy of the model (1.0,
perfect accuracy; ≥0.9, highly predictive accuracy; 0.7–0.9, appro-
priate accuracy) (Franklin, 2010). The AUC values are not affected by
the distribution of the species, thus, they are mainly used when com-
paring model reliability (Thuiller, 2003; Franklin, 2010). To reduce
errors in the model, the minimum AUC was set to 0.7, ensuring that
only models that met this standard were included in developing the
ensemble model.

2.4.3. Establishing the ensemble model

2.4.2. Evaluating the models To improve the predictive performance of previously constructed
To validate the model, we used a receiver operating characteristic individual models, a combination of several models can be used
(ROC) curve analysis, a measure to determine how well the absence (0) (Thuiller, 2003; Elith et al., 2006). There are six types of ensemble
and presence (1) of the dependent species could be identified (Fielding methods: 1) mean of probability, 2) median of probabilities, 3) average

Table 2
Sample number of the target species.
Species Number of samples Species Number of samples

Pinus densiflora 689 Ilex rotunda 68

Pinus koraiensis 180 Machilus thunbergii 103
Abies holophylla 78 Crataegus pinnatifida 128
Taxus cuspidata 127 Chionanthus retusus 39
Platycladus orientalis 159 Betula platyphylla 124
Daphniphyllum macropodum 65 Celtis sinensis 140
Camellia japonica 199

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J. Kim, et al. Landscape and Urban Planning 204 (2020) 103937

Fig. 3. Distribution maps of 13 species.

5
J. Kim, et al.
Fig. 3. (continued)
of variance of probabilities, 4) mean confidence interval probability
over or under 2%, 5) model committee averaging, and 6) weighted
mean of probabilities. Among them, we constructed the ensemble
model using the weighted mean of probabilities. This ensemble method
weighs the results of individual models based on their ROC values when
it aggregates all the model results. This is known to be the most accu-
rate among the six types of ensemble methods according to previous
studies (Thuiller, Lafourcade, Engler, & Araújo, 2009; Kim, Lee, & Park,
2018).
2.4.4. Mapping climatically suitable areas
The ensemble model constructed using BIOMOD2 presented the
probability of distribution of the species as a value between 0% and
100%. We produced fit (1) and non-fit (0) binomial maps using the
threshold, which is the maximum sum of sensitivity and specificity of
the ROC value (Ahn et al., 2015). As a standard of climate suitability,
we decided that a suitable area with over 25% of the forest occupied by
the cell would show a fitted value (1) in the three spatial analysis units
(northern, central, and southern areas). By comparing the present day,
2050s, and 2070s, the changes in suitable areas were determined and
mapped according to the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The maps of the
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Landscape and Urban Planning 204 (2020) 103937
present climatically suitable areas derived from the ensemble model
and the mortality data of various species (Korea Land and Housing
Corporation, 2017) were compared. The mortality data were used a
criterion for judging the suitability of a species for growth or as an
urban tree.
2.4.5. Mortality rate data
The maps of the present climatically suitable planting zones, which
were derived from the ensemble model, were compared by overlapping
the mortality data of each species. We used the mortality data of urban
trees planted in parks and greening areas from 2009 to 2017, obtained
from the Korea Land and Housing Corporation (Table 3). These mor-
tality data have some limitations. First, we cannot exactly unify the
temporal scale of mortality and climate data. This is because the Korea
Land and Housing Corporation has been monitoring urban trees since
2009. Nevertheless, as the definition of climate follows the 30-year
average, it was assumed that Bioclim data from 1970 to 2000 represent
the current climate of the Korean Peninsula. Second, there are no data
for Gangwon Province and Jeju Island, because they have a small po-
pulation and few construction sites of the Korea Land and Housing
Corporation. Therefore, we could not compare the data of these regions
J. Kim, et al. Landscape and Urban Planning 204 (2020) 103937

Table 3 Table 5
Mortality data of urban trees (Korea Land and Housing Corporation, Area under the curve (AUC) and cutoff values for the ensemble model.
2009–2017).
Species AUC value Cut-off value Sensitivity Specificity
No. Species Number of dead Number of planting
trees sites Pinus densiflora 0.939 591.0 83.797 88.9
Pinus koraiensis 0.948 555.0 87.861 89.3
1 Pinus densiflora 17,701 52 Abies holophylla 0.972 420.5 97.260 85.1
2 Pinus koraiensis 9531 13 Taxus cuspidata 0.979 382.0 94.231 91.7
3 Abies holophylla 6337 23 Platycladus orientalis 0.974 416.5 93.525 90.7
4 Taxus cuspidata 1531 30 Daphniphyllum macropodum 0.994 305.0 100.000 95.3
5 Platycladus orientalis 3,876 1 Camellia japonica 0.964 489.5 90.947 88.9
6 Daphniphyllum macropodum 1369 8 Ilex rotunda 0.994 401.5 100.000 98.1
7 Camellia japonica 2456 19 Machilus thunbergii 0.985 477.5 96.512 94.7
8 Ilex rotunda 402 8 Crataegus pinnatifida 0.940 526.5 89.600 85.9
9 Machilus thunbergii 310 7 Chionanthus retusus 0.983 477.5 97.368 90.6
10 Crataegus pinnatifida 5890 18 Betula platyphylla 0.926 479.5 96.078 78.4
11 Chionanthus retusus 5825 39 Celtis sinensis 0.989 370.0 96.522 94.1
12 Betula platyphylla 1997 18
13 Celtis sinensis 29,060 49
3.2. Climatically suitable areas for urban trees

with the results of the model. Third, information about the exact time of 3.2.1. Evergreen coniferous trees
planting, origin of the trees, and composition of soil in which the trees The results of ensemble modeling for evergreen coniferous trees
were established is limited. Thus, we could use only the information showed that the present-day climatically suitable areas of Pinus densi-
about the tree mortality rate in each site. Therefore, it was difficult to flora (pine) are present throughout the ROK (Fig. 4). Furthermore, the
obtain statistically significant associations between the mortality rate present-day suitable areas for Pinus koraiensis (nut pine), Abies holo-
and these potential causes, but we utilized these data for qualitative phylla (fir tree), Taxus cuspidata (yew), and Platycladus orientalis (thuja)
considerations. We discussed the climate suitability of each site by are limited to the northern region of the ROK (see Appendix 2). In this
overlapping the climatically suitable areas and mortality rate of trees study, we analyzed 13 trees, and therefore, we could not include maps
with the administrative district. showing the changes in climatically suitable area of all trees in the text.
We have included the results of only the representative tree species of
each group, and the map of the remaining species are attached as an
3. Results Appendix. In the future, the climatically suitable areas of four species,
namely, P. densiflora, P. koraiensis, A. holophylla, and T. cuspidata, were
3.1. Evaluation of models predicted to decrease and to be located only in the northern areas. On
the contrary, the climatically suitable areas of P. orientalis were pre-
We performed an ROC analysis to evaluate the reliability of the dicted to increase throughout the country (Fig. 4 and Appendix 2).
model for each of the five model runs. The AUC value was over 0.7 in In both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, the climatically suitable areas for
each model. Thus, all models showed appropriate reliability. Generally, the four species (P. densiflora, P. koraiensis, A. holophylla, and T. cuspi-
the statistical accuracy of ecological research is lower than that of other data) would decrease and those for P. orientalis would increase by 2070.
research fields. Nevertheless, our models showed good reliability for For P. orientalis, we predicted that the current suitable areas in the
every species. In particular, the values in bold font in Table 4 show the southern region would remain and the suitable areas in the northern
highest AUC values among the five models. region would expand (Fig. 5).
The weighted mean probability of one of the ensemble methods was T. cuspidata showed the highest mortality rate among the evergreen
used to aggregate the results of each model. The ensemble model coniferous trees. Its mortality rate was high in the southern region, such
showed an AUC value of > 0.9 for each species, thus showing appro- as in Gyeongsangnam Province, Busan, Gyeongsangbuk Province,
priate reliability (Table 5). The cut-off value that maximized the sen- Gyeonggi Province, and Gwangju, because the southern region is not its
sitivity and specificity of the ROC curve analysis was used as the ideal climatic area. P. koraiensis showed a low mortality rate in the
threshold for the binomial climatically suitable areas for each species. northern and central regions, but its mortality was 30% or higher in the
southern regions such as Gyeongsangnam Province. A. holophylla also
showed a mortality rate of more than 10% in climatically unsuitable
areas. All three species (T. cuspidata, P. koraiensis, and A. holophylla)
Table 4 showed a correlation between the current climatically suitable areas
Area under the curve value for each model and species (average of five runs). and mortality rate. Currently, these three species are showing a high
mortality rate in climatically unsuitable areas. Therefore, we predict a
Species MAXENT RF CTA GBM ANN
future increase in the demand for appropriate management practices
Pinus densiflora 0.7112 0.8192* 0.7354 0.7294 0.7382 considering the negative effects of climate change on these species
Pinus koraiensis 0.7266 0.8772 0.7740 0.8656 0.8100 (Figs. 6 and 7).
Abies holophylla 0.7584 0.8482 0.7758 0.8536 0.7758
The mortality rate of P. densiflora was low throughout the country,
Taxus cuspidata 0.8176 0.9338 0.8516 0.9120 0.8378
Platycladus orientalis 0.7034 0.8190 0.7894 0.7908 0.7312 even in climatically unsuitable areas. Thus, climatically relevant vari-
Daphniphyllum macropodum 0.6824 0.7842 0.6972 0.6898 0.7413 ables of P. densiflora contributed marginally to its survival, making it a
Camellia japonica 0.8822 0.9370 0.8718 0.9198 0.8780 strong species under climate change. However, there was mortality
Ilex rotunda 0.9182 0.9750 0.9384 0.9704 0.9833 (5%–10%) in the southern region, and therefore, continuous mon-
Machilus thunbergii 0.9328 0.9324 0.8984 0.9412 0.9294
Crataegus pinnatifida 0.7450 0.8738 0.7998 0.8520 0.7925
itoring is warranted (Figs. 6 and 7).
Chionanthus retusus 0.7322 0.7444 0.7780 0.7146 0.7428
Betula platyphylla 0.7358 0.6902 0.6558 0.7290 0.6755
Celtis sinensis 0.6000 0.9048 0.8594 0.8766 0.6956 3.2.2. Evergreen broadleaf trees
The climatically suitable areas of evergreen broadleaf trees
*Values in bold font indicate the highest AUC value among the five models (Daphniphyllum macropodum (daphniphyllum), Camellia japonica

7
J. Kim, et al.
Fig. 4. Changes in climatically suitable areas of Pinus densiflora and Platycladus orientalis according to the RCP 8.5 scenario.
(camellia), Ilex rotunda (round leaf holly), and Machilus thunbergii
(silver magnolia)) are currently limited to the southern coastal region,
but in the future, their growth region would expand to the north due to
climate change. D. macropodum would extend throughout the country
under the RCP 8.5 scenario. In contrast, the climatically suitable area of
I. rotunda showed the least change among the four species, and its
growth region marginally varied between 2050 and 2070 (Fig. 8). C.
japonica and M. thunbergii are predicted to extend to the central region
including the coastal areas of the northern region (Appendix 2).
Climatically suitable areas were predicted to increase under the RCP
4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, and therefore the planting area of the four
evergreen broadleaf species would expand. The growth conditions of
evergreen broadleaf trees that are currently planted outside the
southern coastal regions would improve. Therefore, we expect that the
planting of evergreen broadleaf trees would increase in the future
(Fig. 9).
D. macropodum, C. japonica, I. rotunda, and M. thunbergii are cur-
rently planted in parts of the southern region such as Gyeongsangnam
and Jeollanam Provinces (Land and Housing Institute Korea, 2017).
8
Landscape and Urban Planning 204 (2020) 103937
These four evergreen broadleaf species, whose suitable climate ranges
are mostly limited to parts in the southern coast, have a high mortality
rate when they are planted as urban trees in other areas. Their mortality
rate increases as the distance from the southern coast increases. In
particular, both C. japonica and M. thunbergii may have a mortality rate
of more than 30% outside the southern coastal region, which may be
correlated with their climate suitability (Fig. 10).
The results of the analysis of evergreen broadleaf trees revealed that
the four species were planted mainly in the southern region as urban
trees, and their mortality rate was higher than that of the other tree
groups (Fig. 11). Therefore, the approaches used for maintaining these
tree species should be based on the reason for their mortality. For ex-
ample, evergreen broadleaf trees are vulnerable to extreme weather
conditions such as cold waves (Jung et al., 2014), and maintenance
practices should focus on alleviating these conditions. The maintenance
measures to prevent cold waves include mulching of the ground sur-
face, covering the bark with sack, and installing windbreak facilities.
Although planting coverage may increase in the future, continued ef-
forts to prevent damage would be required.
J. Kim, et al.
Fig. 5. Changes in climatically suitable areas for evergreen coniferous trees.
3.2.3. Deciduous broadleaf trees
The climatically suitable areas for Crataegus pinnatifida are currently
in the northern region, but according to the RCP 8.5 scenario, its cli-
matically suitable areas would occur only in some alpine areas in the
northern region by the 2050s. In addition, its climatically suitable areas
are predicted to be substantially reduced by the 2070s (Figs. 12 and 13,
and Appendix 2). C. pinnatifida shows a low mortality rate in its present-
day climatically suitable areas (Figs. 14 and 15). Nevertheless, altera-
tions in its climatically suitable area according to climate changes
should be considered.
The current climatically suitable areas for Chionanthus retusus are
located in the southern region and coastal areas in the central and
northern regions. According to the RCP 8.5 scenario, this pattern would
be maintained until the 2050s. However, the climatically suitable area
for C. retusus is expected to expand significantly in the 2070s. The entire
ROK would satisfy the climatic conditions for the growth of C. retusus in
the future (Figs. 12 and 13, and Appendix 2).
Currently, Betula platyphylla has climatically suitable areas in the
northern region and central area in the southern region. In the future, B.
platyphylla is predicted to be limited to mountainous areas in the
northern region. This change in distribution is similar to that of ever-
green conifers such as A. holophylla, P. koraiensis, and T. cuspidata.
Climatically suitable areas of B. platyphylla are expected to be reduced
in the 2070s under the RCP 8.5 scenario (Figs. 12 and 13, and Appendix
Fig. 6. Overlapping analysis of evergreen coniferous mortality and current climatically suitable areas.
9
Landscape and Urban Planning 204 (2020) 103937
2). B. platyphylla showed the highest mortality rate among the four
deciduous broadleaf tree species (Figs. 14 and 15).
The current climatically suitable areas for Celtis sinensis are mainly
located in the southern region. This pattern is expected to change sig-
nificantly in the 2050s and 2070s under RCP 8.5. Almost the entire ROK
region would be a suitable planting area for C. sinensis. This area is
larger than that predicted for C. retusus (Figs. 12 and 13, and Appendix
2). Currently, C. sinensis showed a higher mortality rate in the southern
region than in the northern region (Figs. 14 and 15). Due to climate
change, the minimum temperature is expected to rise continuously, and
the climatically suitable area for C. sinensis would expand throughout
the ROK, reducing the risk of damage. However, the management of
tree rehabilitation in the winter may be necessary.
4. Discussion
The climate of the ROK is divided into northern, central, and
southern climates based on the WI (Yim & Kira, 1975). In particular, Bio
1 (Annual Mean Temperature) has a high correlation with WI. Fur-
thermore, Bio11 (Mean Temperature of the Coldest Quarter) and Bio12
(Annual Precipitation) are related to the survival and growth of plants.
Most of the tree species studied through appropriate variable selection,
such as P. densiflora, T. cuspidate, C. retusus, C. japonica, I. rotunda, and
M. thunbergii, showed distribution patterns similar to those reported
J. Kim, et al. Landscape and Urban Planning 204 (2020) 103937

Pinus densiflora Pinus koraiensis Abies holophylla Taxus cuspidata Platycladus orientalis

Fig. 7. Comparison of mortality of evergreen coniferous trees and climatically suitable areas.

Fig. 8. Changes in climatically suitable areas of Daphniphyllum macropodum and Ilex rotunda according to the RCP 8.5 scenario.

10
J. Kim, et al. Landscape and Urban Planning 204 (2020) 103937

Fig. 9. Changes in climatically suitable areas of evergreen broadleaf trees.

Fig. 10. Overlapping analysis of evergreen coniferous mortality and current climatically suitable areas.

Fig. 11. Comparison of mortality of evergreen broadleaf trees and climatically suitable areas.

11
J. Kim, et al. Landscape and Urban Planning 204 (2020) 103937

Fig. 12. Changes in climatically suitable areas of Crataegus pinnatifida, Chionanthus retusus, Betula platyphylla, and Celtis sinensis according to the RCP 8.5 scenario.

12
J. Kim, et al.
Fig. 12. (continued)
Fig. 13. Changes in climatically suitable areas for deciduous broadleaf trees.
previously (Lee, 1995, 2018; The Korean Institute of Landscape
Architecture, 2002; Chun & Lee, 2013; Chun et al., 2014). Additionally,
the AUC values in the ROC analysis, which reflect the statistical relia-
bility of the models, were high (Table 4).
Climatically suitable areas for evergreen coniferous trees are ex-
pected to decrease, and this requires further management due to vul-
nerable climate conditions (Fig. 16). Except for P. orientalis, the other
evergreen conifers would be suitable to only some parts in the northern
region in the future. Thus, we suggest limited planting of evergreen
coniferous trees in the northern region. For evergreen broadleaf trees,
climatically suitable areas are predicted to expand throughout the ROK
by the 2070s. However, non-climatic factors such as growth char-
acteristics (e.g., cold resistance, pollution resistance, and portability)
and soil factors would affect the growth and survival of evergreen
broadleaf trees. Therefore, the planting areas of evergreen broadleaf
trees could be expanded in the future by high-quality management and
appropriate species selection.
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Landscape and Urban Planning 204 (2020) 103937
The deciduous broadleaf trees showed the most prominent changes
among the three types of trees (Fig. 16). Two deciduous broadleaf tree
species (C. retusus and C. sinensis) could be planted throughout the ROK
in the future. In particular, C. retusus would be an ideal species for
future climate conditions because it currently has a low mortality rate
and does not require a high level of management. It demonstrated a low
mortality rate even in inappropriate areas, because it has excellent
characteristics such as pollution resistance and portability (The Korean
Institute of Landscape Architecture, 2002). Therefore, C. retusus is a
viable option as a deciduous broadleaf tree when considering climate
change.
In contrast, the climatically suitable areas for C. pinnatifida and B.
platyphylla would decrease and shift to the northern region. B. platy-
phylla requires a high level of management after planting due to its
weak transplantability and weak pollution resistance (The Korean
Institute of Landscape Architecture, 2002). Thus, when planting B.
platyphylla, the predicted changes in its climatically suitable areas,
J. Kim, et al.
Fig. 14. Overlapping analysis of deciduous broadleaf mortality and current climatically suitable areas.
Fig. 15. Comparison of mortality of deciduous broadleaf trees and climatically suitable areas.
management, and monitoring systems should be considered. Due to the
anticipated increase in average temperature, the northern region would
be appropriate to plant C. pinnatifida and B. platyphylla.
Overall, evergreen broadleaf trees and some deciduous broadleaf
trees (C. retusus and C. sinensis), which are often planted in the southern
region, could have large climatically suitable areas in the future (Fig. 16
and Appendix 1). However, the evergreen conifers are expected to ex-
perience a narrower selection of species, except for P. orientalis, because
only the northern regions are expected to be climatically suitable re-
gions. The total number of species used for planting by the Korea Land
and Housing Corporation in 2017 was 124, and the number of ever-
green coniferous trees among them was less than 10 (Land and Housing
Institute Korea, 2017). Thus, for evergreen conifers, species that can
adapt to climate change should be identified. In the future, by identi-
fying local species that can be used as urban trees in the ROK, the re-
sulting diversification of urban tree species can help preserve the di-
versity of urban vegetation and improve the quality of the urban
landscape.
In the future, even in regions with an unfavorable climate, trees
with low mortality, such as C. retusus, P. densiflora, and C. pinnatifida,
could be more appropriate as newly planted trees and easier to manage
as established trees. On the contrary, for trees with high mortality in
14
Landscape and Urban Planning 204 (2020) 103937
their present climatically suitable areas, such as C. japonica and B.
platyphylla, not only climate suitability but also other variables and
intrinsic growth characteristics that cause high mortality should be
considered. Mortality is the result of complex interactions between
factors and does not necessarily correlate with climate suitability.
Nevertheless, data on the range of climate factors for each species can
help suggest the direction of management and future species selection
by judging the current and future growth conditions of trees.
We used the tree mortality rate data, which has the limitation of
temporal inconsistency, to evaluate the effect of climate change on
urban trees. Most of the landscape construction and managed sites do
not have data on the mortality rate of urban trees. The Korea Land and
Housing Corporation, a public institution that compiles tree mortality
data, has planted and managed the highest number of trees in urban
areas in the ROK. In this study, we intended to emphasize the im-
portance and necessity of compiling tree mortality rate data by pro-
posing a method that reflects tree mortality rate. There is a need for
future research to obtain more reliable results through coincidence of
temporal resolution and mortality rate data. For this purpose, tree
mortality data should be more widely shared and used for urban tree
planting.
Rather than predicting the exact habitat point, we focused on
J. Kim, et al. Landscape and Urban Planning 204 (2020) 103937

Fig. 16. Changes in climatically suitable areas under climate change (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) (x-axis: species, y-axis: climate suitable area (1000 km2)).

15
J. Kim, et al.
Fig. 16. (continued)
categorizing suitable climate regions at relatively large spatial resolu-
tions and selected only three variables that had the most effect on tree
survival and growth. However, it is crucial to continue this study by
considering seasonal responses because variables such as seasonal
temperature fluctuations and short-term rainfall were not considered
here. In addition, it is important to study the response of urban trees to
extreme climate conditions because the resulting damage to the tree
may be severe when its tolerance limit is reached, even in a suitable
area. In addition, there may be uncertainties in forecasts because of
uncertainties in climate change scenarios and species distribution
models (Thuiller et al., 2004). The accuracy of the distribution forecast
could be improved in the future by continuous improvements in the
model and the climate change scenario.
Although we analyzed the data that we could obtain as compre-
hensively as possible, our study had some limitations. Important vari-
ables such as soil, import time, and planting time were lacking in the
database, and growth vitality data have not been recorded. In addition,
most of the historical data used in this study were derived from trees
planted for urban development and those distributed in the inland
areas. Moreover, an in-depth examination was limited because only the
planting site could be identified without considering important factors
such as soil, planting season, and planting methods. Different species
have different adaptabilities to the environment and different variables
that are critical to growth and survival. Thus, there is a limitation in
selecting appropriate urban trees considering only climate suitability.
5. Conclusion
We identified species-specific climate ranges for urban trees that act
as valuable environmental filters at a regional scale. This is important
because there are no systematic criteria for selecting urban tree species
and information on proper planting regions. Furthermore, we compared
the suitable planting regions and the mortality rate data of each urban
tree to verify the reliability of our results. The climate suitability
identified in the present study can contribute to more rational decision
making by considering growth characteristics. Our results can be uti-
lized as a reference for objective decision making during the landscape
and urban planning process. Additionally, our findings can be extra-
polated to other countries that have similar climate and environmental
conditions as the ROK, such as countries in Asia and Europe.
Acknowledgments
This work was conducted with the support of the Korea
Environment Industry & Technology Institute (KEITI) through its Urban
Ecological Health Promotion Technology Development Project, and
funded by the Korea Ministry of Environment (MOE)
(2019002770001). This study was developed from the master’s thesis of
Seoul Nation University (Kim Jiyeon, 2019, Predicting climate suit-
ability of landscape tree species under climate change).
16
Landscape and Urban Planning 204 (2020) 103937
Author statement
Jiyeon Kim ran the species distribution models for urban trees,
evaluated models, and collected and modified relevant data (mortality
rate data, climate scenario data, and bioclim data).
Don Kun Lee wrote the Introduction, Discussion, and Conclusion of
the manuscript.
Ho Gul Kim wrote the Methods and Results of the manuscript.
Appendix A. Supplementary data
Supplementary data to this article can be found online at https://
doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2020.103937.
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