COLLEGE OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS

DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS
PROPOSAL SUBMITTED TO DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS IN PARTIAL
FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENT FOR THE BACHELOR OF ARTS (BA) DEGREE
IN ECONOMICS.

IMPACT OF RAPID POPULATION GROWTH ON SOCIO ECONOMIC

DEVELOPMENT (IN CASE OF AMBO TOWN)

PREPARED BY: ID.NO

1, BERHANU MERGA.............................................................BEB/0014/12
2, BIRHANU BEDADA...........................................................BEB/0015/12
3, WAQUMA GARADO..........................................................BEB/0097/12
4, KIDANU TOLOSSA............................................................BEB/0059/12
5, MARTA GOSAYE................................................................BEB/0065/12
6, BONTU ABERA…………………………………………...BEB/0020/12

ADVISOR: ABDISA MULATA (MA)

October/2023
AMBO, ETHIOPIA
 Acronym

CSA Central Statistical Agency

DC Developed Country
EC Ethiopian Calendar
EEA Ethiopian Economic Association
FDRE Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia
GDP Growth Domestic Production
ILO International Labor Organization
LDC Less Developed County
MOFED Minister of Finance and Economic Development
NGO Non-governmental Organization
NPPE National Population Policy of Ethiopia
UN United Nation

i
 Table of contents

Contents page

Acronym.......................................................................................................................................i

CHAPTER ONE..........................................................................................................................1

1. INTRODUCTION...................................................................................................................1

1.1Background of the study.....................................................................................................1

1.2 Statement of Problem.........................................................................................................2

1.3. Research question..............................................................................................................3

1.4 Objective of the study........................................................................................................4

1.4.1 General objective of the study.....................................................................................4
1.4.2 Specific objectives of the study...................................................................................4

1.5 Significance of the study....................................................................................................4

1.6 Scope of the study..............................................................................................................4

1.7 Limitation of the study.......................................................................................................5

1. 8 Organization of the Study.................................................................................................5

CHAPTER TWO.........................................................................................................................6

2. LITERATURE REVIEW........................................................................................................6

2.1 Theoretical literature review............................................................................................6

2.1.1 Population Growth and Socio-economic Development..............................................6
2.1.2 Determinant of population change............................................................................7
2.1.3 Impact of rapid population growth...........................................................................9
2.1.3.1 Economic problems................................................................................................9
2.1.3.2 Social problems......................................................................................................12
2.1.3.3 Political Problem....................................................................................................13
2.1.4 Population size and Trends........................................................................................14
ii
 2.1.5 Impact of population growth on Ambo town socio-economic development............14

2.2 Empirical Literature.........................................................................................................14

2.3. Conceptual frame work of Ethiopia population growth..................................................15

CHAPTER THREE...................................................................................................................17

3. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY..........................................................................................17

3.1 Description of the Study Area.......................................................................................17

3.2 Types and Source of Data............................................................................................17

3.3 Method of data collection..............................................................................................17

3.4 Sampling design.............................................................................................................18

3.5 Methods of data analysis................................................................................................18

3.6. Variable Description and Model Specification...............................................................19

3.6.1. Dependent variable...................................................................................................19
3.6.2. Independent Variables..............................................................................................19

3.7. Model specification.........................................................................................................19

3.8. Ethical Consideration......................................................................................................19

4. TIME SCHEDULE AND BUDGET BREAK DOWN.........................................................20

4.1 TIME SCHEDULE..........................................................................................................20

REFERENCE.............................................................................................................................22

iii
 CHAPTER ONE
1. INTRODUCTION

1.1Background of the study

A rapid population growth is a growing concern throughout the world and a challenge to
countries’ economies. The world’s population was about a billion in 1800 and rose to 2.5
billion in 1950. In the year 2010 the world’s population was 6.7 billion and is projected to rise
to 9.2 billion by 2050 with almost all population growth projected to occur in what are now
considered less developed regions. Between 1950 and 2000, when the world’s population
increased from 2.5 billion to 6.1 billion, the major shifts in population weights by continent
were the result of changes in fertility and mortality rather than large-scale migration (Martin,
2009).

Ethiopia is one of the fewer developing countries (LDCs) and characterized by rapid
population growth which is not balanced with economic development of the country. In 1998,
Ethiopia ranked 20th with 60 million populations. The projected population of 169 million in
2050 were ranked country 9th most populated in the world and 2nd in Africa following Nigeria.
The Ethiopia annual growth rate was 2.4% with the doubling time of population is about 24
years. Such rapid growth population change in fact strains socio-economic development of our
country seriously. In Ethiopia rapid population growth brought a reduction in per capital
income, social service provision, unemployment, dependency ratio, natural resource and
environment degradation, job opportunity, basic need self-sufficient provision of good and
service and size of land available for farming and housing (EEA,2008).

Ethiopia high young population implies large dependence on productive peoples. The
distribution of population is more settled on highland area and low in lowland areas. High
land area have available environment for agriculture production. This high concentration of
population causes environmental change such as land degradation, deforestation and soil
erosion as well as change in rain fall (CSA, 2010).

Oromia regional state is one of the largest regions in the Federal Democratic Republic of
Ethiopia (FDREFDRE) that share boarder with other regions and highly populated with
different unique features. The region is rich in natural resource and have very good
environment for investment and agricultural production. The region is characterized by rapid
population growth especially around urban areas. Oromia ranked first in terms of population
size with a population density of 61.5 people per square kilometer. The fertility rate of the
region was about 7.3 children per women. The regional population growth is not balanced
with the economic development and this brought various impacts (Population Annual Report
of Oromia, 2011).

Ambo is among a few privileged towns of its time to have its own municipal
administration since 1931, and a master plan since 1983. It covers a total area of 1 320
hectares.

The town is serving as an administrative, commercial and transport center of the western
Shoa zone. The town was selected to be one of twenty in the Oromia region to benefit
from a federal reform program projection), the current population is estimated at 50,284
inhabitants.

The municipality only counts registered residents of the town. Given the transitory nature
of the town, a large proportion is thought to be unaccounted for economy. The economy
of Ambo town is predominantly based on administration and social services sector the
employments and other activities.

1.2 Statement of Problem

In Ethiopia, population growth is a real problem of economic development because
unrestricted population increase is seen as the major crisis causing low level of living,
malnutrition, ill health, environmental degradation and other social problem. Ambo town is
also one of the areas in Ethiopia, which faces many problems from population growth; these
problems are on distribution of land, social service, job opportunity food security and etc.
Moreover, rapidly growing population exposes the town to serious problems like
unemployment and environmental ecological imbalance, this and other problems are put the
town in vicious circle of poverty. Consequently, the town has less accessibility of education
and health sector facilities, to fill the need and demand of the whole society and country: This
problem came from population growth. (Todaro, 2008).
The link between population growth and socio- economic development is not as simple as
cause and effect relationship. There is bi-directional relationship between the two, one
affecting the other socio- economic growth affects population growth and population growth
has impact on the socio- economy development. There has been on consensus whether
population growth positive or negative impact on the performance of socio- economic is still
unsolved. This term paper was regarding to the problems and explains the impact of
population growth on socio- economic development in different aspects. The population
growth is the main source of labor supply in socio- economy. With our all population, the
working age (15-64 year age) the population increase resulting in an increase labor force. The
size of working age -population (the labor force) has significant contributed for development
of socio- economy. The economy observes and makes use of It (Zinash zeleke. et, al., 2004).

Rapid population growth in Ethiopia has aggravated for existing gap of unmet need of social
service and the quality of health and education services in the country and have been
continued to be deteriorated by rapid population growth (Befekadu et al., 2019).

Many research scholars showed that the rapid population growth has its own consequences on
socio-economic development in urban areas. These unsolved and non-conclusive problems
include decrease in land holding, high rate of unemployment, shortage of social service and
housing issues and etc. Thus, by taking the above noted problems into account this research
paper assesses the effect of population growth on socio-economic development of Ambo town.

1.3. Research question

1. What is the causal relationship between population growth and socio- economic
development of the town?
2. How do socio-economic developments respond due to dynamics in Population growth?
3. What should be the plausible policy recommendations ought to be taken into account
in order to reduce the rapid population growth and bring its socio-economic
improvement?

1.4 Objective of the study

1.4.1 General objective of the study

The general objective of this study is to assess the impact of rapid population growth on socio
economic development of Ambo town of west Shoa Zone of the Oromia regional state.

1.4.2 Specific objectives of the study

The specific objectives of the study:

1. Examining relationship between population growth and socio- economic development
of the town.
2. Analyzing the response of socio- economic development due to shocks of population
growth of the town.
3. Assessing the consequence of rapid population growth on socio-economic
development.

1.5 Significance of the study

The studies aim to provide recent and comprehensive information on the impact of rapid
population growth on socio-economic development of the town. It also tells us the impact of
rapid population in urban areas that result from population growth through high fertility rate,
and high rural-urban migration. The studies provide information’s on current condition of
different data profiles and policy recommendations on the impact of rapid population growth
on economic development of Ambo town. It also used for policy makers on social services and
economic development of the town. It further contributes to the existing literature by
extending the works of others and helps in filling the knowledge gap in this area.

1.6 Scope of the study

The study limited on the impact of rapid population growth on socio economic development.
The researcher will focus on the effects of rapid population growth on the town’s socio-
economic development. The research cover 2012-2015 year data source of the town
population status. The motivation to conduct these analyses is to assess some consequence of
population growth on socio-economic development of Ambo town. The study is conduct on
the kebeles of the town.
1.7 Limitation of the study
The studies of this paper analysis are limit by shortage of primary and secondary data source,
lack of available current data profiles, shortage of reference book, internet service, time and
budget are some limitation of the study that reduce expected finding of research paper
analysis.

1. 8 Organization of the Study

The paper organized into five main chapters with the first chapter including background, the
statement of problem, research question, objectives, and the scope of the study, and
significance of the study. The second chapter mainly focuses on review of literatures. The
third chapter is the research methodology. The fourth chapter contains data analysis and
interpretation and the fifth chapter is conclusion and recommendation.
 CHAPTER TWO
2. LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 Theoretical literature review

Population is the productive live and health of individual, couples, community and all the
people in a country. Population is a group of people living in a definite geographic area.
Population concerned in term of size, growth rate, structure, demographic and distribution of
people in the area human population is the main productive force and maker of spiritual and
material. It includes gender equality and equity, as well as, participation of community in
matter related to their wellbeing. Population dynamics refers to variable that determine the
level of population growth and thus function are fertility, mortality and migration in changing
the size and structure of population of an area. While fertility and mortality are biological
factor, migration is purely non-biological in nature. The stage of social and economic and
demographic development determines the level of each of these factors. Population dynamics
is an increase or decrease in population size due to birth rate, death rate and migration
(Tegegne G.E and Edlam A. Y, 2019).

Economic and social development is a process of improving the quality of all human lives
aspects of development are raising peoples level of living in their income and consumption
level, creating condition conducive to growth of people self-esteem and increasing people
freedom enlarging range of their choice.

It is also include change in social service, economic transformation, job opportunity and
infrastructure facilities development in the society (MOFED, 2009).

2.1.1 Population Growth and Socio-economic Development

The world most growth center of population is the LDCs. In the world, LDCs have very high
birthrates, while developed country has birth rate below replacement rate. Population growth
rate in LDCs is 2% per annual, compared to 1.1% in middle income countries and 0.7% per
annual in DCs. According to UN of population report, LDCs are not in position of lowering
their population growth rate that hinders their economic progress. Such large of people living
in the world have no sufficient resource to feed such large people living in the world. Natural
resource is naturally limited but being and need and wants are not limited. In LDCs, due to
high birth rate children under age 15 are 32% of total population, while 17% in DCs, this
refers dependence burden on active labor force to support financially more children and older
(UN, 2006).

In most developing countries rapid population growth has various consequences on socio-
economic development. According to UN ,in LDCs 80% of population engaged in agriculture
production, However, land holding diminishing that decrease production of agriculture result
in short age of food securities. As population rises the demand for natural resource and social
service increase and capital per worker ratio decrease lowering standard of living. Population
have a major barrier to alleviate poverty cycle, inequality and under development of economic
absorbing capacities of economy increases unemployment and migration of labor force.
Population growth dampens economic growth and social transformation through capital
shadowing effect that is reduction in capital per worker ratio, age dependence of young
resulting in high consumption of food production, depleting saving and investment activity in
the country (EEA, 2008).

In Ethiopia as EEA states that the relationships between rapid population growth and socio-
economic development have a negative effect due to the imbalance between population
growth and economic development. The strong relationship between population and economic
development is the area of food production and supply, sustainable economic growth, poverty
alleviation, PCI, job opportunity distribution of social service, standard of living and land
share that will be mismatch with present Ethiopian population growth and economic
development. The size of population in relation to economic growth and development and
standard of living is negatively related, this shows under development of economy and rapid
population growth. (EEA, 2010)

2.1.2 Determinant of population change

Determinant of population change are kwon as component or dynamic of population change. It
determines the level of population growth /change/ in size and structure of the population of an
area. Determinants population change brings about difference in size and characteristics of
population of a given social environment. The basic determinants of population change
include fertility, mortality and migration. The total population of any are at the end of a given
year equals to the population size at the beginning of the year plus all the births, minus all the
death ,plus all the in migrant /immigrants and minus all the out migrants /emigrants. This
refers to the concept of population growth rate (Girma, 2003).

While Dyson (2010) contends that mortality decline is the chief cause of economic
development, Beall (2009) argues that the direction of causality should be reversed, i.e., it is
the improvement in the standard of living that results in lower death rates. (Tegegne G.E and
Edlam A. Y, 2019) also show that the dire living conditions that came with the industrial
revolution and modern economic growth in cities of Europe during the nineteenth century
might have raised mortality rates. On the other hand, evidence from contemporary developing
economies tends to show that it is mortality decline that leads to economic growth, as it
increases investment in both physical and human capital via increased savings rates and
education (Bloom and Canning, 2008).

Furthermore, mortality tends to fall as a result of declines in death rates from infectious
diseases. Declines in these diseases tend to bring about an improvement in the nutritional
status of children which in turn leads to a fitter future labor force. In fact, Strauss and Thomas
(1998) show that healthier workers tend to be more productive. In pre-transitional societies,
relatively rapid population growth almost always resulted in a fall in the standard of living due
to the rather severe limits to the technical progress in agriculture or to the fixed supply of land,
as pointed out by Birhanu K.T. et.al, 2019). This prompts Clark (2007) to state that income
levels before the nineteenth century could not escape the Malthusian equilibrium due to the
very low rate of technological advance in all economies. However, according to the
‘neutralist’ or ‘revisionist’ view, high population growth rates in developing countries since
the middle of the twentieth century have had little effect on per capita GDP growth (Kelley
and McGreevy, 1994).

Simon (1981, 1989) would go as far as suggesting that population growth may have had
appositive impact on per capita GDP growth in the long run through improvement of
productivity through the contribution of new ideas and the learning-by-doing resulting from
increased production volume. The current consensus is that, as more data become available,
rapid population growth has exerted a significant negative effect on economic growth in
developing countries ( Sachs, 2008), and Headey and Hodge, 2009).
The recent experience of fertility decline in developing countries in Asia and Latin America
has reduced a country’s dependency ratio, which then raised the potential for faster economic
growth through higher saving and investment levels in both physical capital such as roads,
production facilities and human capital such as higher educational attainment and training for
each young worker, particularly for an extended period over which the labor force increases at
a faster rate than the pool of dependent people (Birhanu K.T. et.al, 2019).

Due to this decline, however, eventually this region will experience an increase in its old-age
dependency ratio as is the case for both Europe and Japan (Bloom et al. 2009).

Population ageing thus may be exercising a negative impact on economic growth. While many
problems such as congestion, pollution, and slum settlements are caused by urban growth in
contemporary developing countries, cities are often described as ‘engines’ of growth (Beall
and Fox, 2009).

Cities also provide large and concentrated markets, allowing for economies of scale in the
production of manufactured goods as well as low transportation costs. It is in urban areas that
firms can better match their labor demands with the supply of skills, while the returns to
infrastructure such as roads, port facilities, and electricity grids are greater due to the
concentration of industries and firms. By analyzing international data for the period since 1975
and find that urban growth has been positively associated with per capita GDP growth.
Hypothesize that per capita GDP growth in a developing country is a function of the following
factors: the level of urbanization, urban growth, population growth, and population growth
squared, young and old dependency ratios, the mortality rate, the total fertility rate (Fox and
Dyson, 2008).

2.1.3 Impact of rapid population growth

2.1.3.1 Economic problems

A) Natural resource depletion and environment degradation
Rapid population growth in developing countries especially in Ethiopia in the context of low
technological advancement is exerting heavy pressure on natural resource and environment
condition. The rising demand for food supply result from rapid population growth had led to
the expansion of cultivation in to land, generally, unsuitable for crop production and animal
husbandry.

In Ethiopia, the impacts of rapid population growth on social and economic development have
degradation of natural resource, change in climate, decline in land for housing rise in urban
center to constraint / building home, and soil erosion are the result of population. The
traditional means of exploiting natural resource have to be environmentally harmed full and
economically unproductive.

As population rapidly increase in Ethiopia its impact on environment and resource is

significant. These are :deforestation is cut down trees for agriculture land ,wood and
construction purpose, erosion and land degradation by water and wind and land fragmentation
that is majority farm house holds ,average land size is now less than one hector per
households. The link between population and natural environment are highly related. The
resource and environment is linked with the survival of the society and inevitably with
development. High population growth can bring environmental changes that have effect on
change in social organization and the change in social organization has consequences on
poverty cycle (NPPE, 2006).

B) Agricultural Land share

Ethiopians cultivating system is mostly by traditional which leads to shortening of fallow
periods and crop rotation that helped maintain soil fertility. This traditional means of
cultivation have led to increase rate of erosion, but decrease agricultural production. High
demand for new farm lands, for age for livestock and fuel wood and charcoal for cooking have
contributed significantly to the massive reduction and destruction of forest and woodland
resources (Birhanu K.T. et.al. 2019).

Population growth is related to agricultural development through a chain of reaction that

includes decrease land share and crop productivity. In the north and central high land of
Ethiopia were residential patterns are dense, natural land scopes are significantly changed in
contrast to the south west area were the population density are relatively low. Thus, means
large land mass of Ethiopian high land constituted by Oromia region high land is severely
degraded by human factor. The Ethiopia economy is highly influenced by agricultural
production and land holding, because of according to CSA, 80% of population live in rural
areas and economically based on agriculture. This is why Ethiopian economy is characterized
by agrarian economy. Agriculture is supply of food grain, cash crop, milk, dairy and meat
product are known not satisfies rapid population growth food need (Samson, 2010).

C) Unemployment and Migration

The measurement of the level national employment or unemployment rate requires
clarification of the concept like; labor force, working age and productive
activity .Unemployment are the working age who are available for work and have actively
sought work for employed, but unable to get job at the existing wage. The working age ranks
from 15-59 year (ILO, 2008).

The rapid population growth increase working age group or new labor force to labor market.
Young full age structure in impacts on employment resource as a large number of people
enter in to labor force every year. In our country due to low economic level the economically
active labor force absorbed capacity of the economy is limited .The majority of young people
entering the labor force market work in traditional agricultural sector and this puts a heavy
burden on natural resource, environment condition, social security’s and political issues. The
problem of unemployment is high in urban area, which results due to migration of people from
rural to urban to search better job, good living standard and better per capital income.

Migration is the movement of people in space, often involving change in usual place of
residence .Specially, migration have a number of various effect of reliving population resource
in crowd area ,spending cultures from one area to another an bringing group into contact and
there by conflict. Similarly, many studies have proved that rural-urban migration strongly
affects the agricultural sector in rural area by removing labor force from the area to urban
(Herbert J. Gans, 2001).

Internal migration has the main effect of redistributing the population size between rural and
urban areas, and between rural areas of low potential to those of higher agricultural potential.
Therefore, internal migration is an important element of population dynamics in agricultural
countries like Ethiopia, where internal migration is insignificant by volume. The overall inter
regional flows have been from the northern region to the south west and south east regions,
as well as Finfinne (Addis Ababa) city .This indicates that the migrant have been moving out
of the densely populated eroded northern and central high lands to area with available land of
agriculture and better job opportunity(Girma,2003).

D) Job Opportunity and Investment

In LDCs, like Ethiopia which have rapid population growth, it is difficult to create sustainable
job opportunity, because of a number of economic establishment are too few to absolve the
large proportion of the economically active labor forces. As projection indicates the size of
working age (15-64) population is higher than the investment job opportunity in the country.
Several new job have to be created every year to satisfy the growing working age population,
but the job opportunity of socio-economic investment in different sector are failed to satisfy
the rapid growing population. In Ethiopia, with weak economic capacity is un able to create
sufficient new job, it implies low job opportunity and investment, that increase unemployment
people, resulting in increasing the number of people living below poverty line having rapid
population growth in an environment of weak economic structure. In addition in Ethiopia, the
government ,NGO and private investment is grow at low rate, that create low job opportunity
for rapid population growth ,special at urban area .due to short age of budget and
technology ,government investment in social service is low, which create more job
opportunity for currently unemployed labor force (Girma, 2003) .

2.1.3.2 Social problems

A) Dependence ratio
Dependence ratio is a measure of the degree of burden created by the unproductive population
over the productive population. Dependency ratio is expressed in percentage. The population
of Ethiopia is pre dominantly young. This is a direct result of high fertility rate. Ethiopia has
large non-productive population, with large dependent population, expenditure for education,
health, shelter, food and basic service become very high. Rapid population growth produces a
youthful population dominated by children those who are almost unproductive economically,
highly consuming rather than effectively producing product. (EEA, 2009)

B) Social service provision

In fact, the effects of rapid population growth on social and economic development of public
service are complex and adverse in their nature. Obviously rapid population growth entrants
with public education, health, housing, food supply, employment opportunity, investment and
the quality of the environment at large. As population of Ethiopia growth rapidly, the demand
for social service increase simultaneously but the economic capacity of country failed to
satisfies the demand of all societies (EEA, 2009).

Effects on health: Ethiopia has registered a poor health statutes and high rate of population
growth with weak economic development. The poor health status is largely attributable to
prevent table infection disease and nutritional deficiencies. Poverty cycle, low level of
education, inadequate access to clean water, shortage of sanitary facilities and poor access
modern health facilities have contributed to the poor health situation or status in Ethiopia.

Effects on education: the rapid population growth has resulted in growing demand for
education. Now days though school are being built, total number of students has increased
enormously. Thus there are still large number of children who do not get chance to go school
especially in rural areas. In many urban centers school have overcrowded class rooms. to
improve this situation a large sum of money on building schools ,purchasing educational
facilities and printing books as well as training the teachers being invested but failed to
satisfies rapid population growth of children population.

Effects on Housing: Ethiopia is currently facing a serious problem of housing due to limited
supply. The short age is aggravated by the high rate of growing of population and by the
stagnation in the construction of residential houses. Rapid population growth leads to high
demand for housing shelter and other social service. Homelessness is already a major part of
the housing problem, mainly around urban center. The number of homeless person or squatter
who live in bus station, pavement and in any open spaces has increased. In Ethiopia housing
sector lack comprehensive policy, which create favorable condition for housing market. Thus
at present there is little change in construction of housing (Berhanu, 2008).

2.1.3.3 Political Problem

In addition to economic and social factor, there are also a series of political factors which are
contributed to the under development of the country’s economy. Political factor may include:
crime, robbery and conflict.

In Ethiopia the number of population grow highly, without showing population growth, that
result in unemployment, migration, homeless, population density, low food supply and
agricultural production could fuel political instability and under development of the economy.
The rapid rate of urban population growth which Ethiopia has been experiencing since last
decade couples of year has reached level where possess serious problem to national
development and promotion of social welfare (Berhanu, 2008).

2.1.4 Population size and Trends

By 1900, the population of Ethiopia was 11.8 million. It had annual growth rate of 0.2 percent.
After 1900, the population growth very fast, then between 1960 and1990 that is within short
time, the population once again doubled. After 1970, populations reach 29.5 million with 26
year of doubling time. In 2000, it reaches 63.4 million and 2.9 annual growth rates. This
indicates Ethiopia population has been growing rapidly. Obviously, rapid population change is
a common demographic feature of LDCs (CSA, 2008).

2.1.5 Impact of population growth on Ambo town socio-economic

development
AMBO town is affected by population growth in terms of the lack of land, unemployment,
and other social services. According to information taken from Ambo town administration and
small micro enterprise office, there is unemployment of 8909 and employed of 5543 in Ambo
town. This implies that there is the impact of population growth over the towns’ economy.
Also there is the lack of supply in terms of land, material, and money because of increasing
number of people that unbalanced with the yearly budget of the town (Ambo administration
office, 2015).

2.2 Empirical Literature

Evidences on Ethiopia economy showed that rapid population growth in the country has
seriously affected the development of the economy. The growth rate of GDP and perception
GDP have been declining with growth of population for instance. The GDP growth rate in
1978 was four times higher than that of the 1990 while per capita GDP declined to almost zero
in 1990 from 2.6 in 1978 (Berhanu and Befekadu, 2007/2008).

Experiences over the last couple of decades in Ethiopia have shown that when human
numbers increased the population carrying capacity of the environment decreased.
“High population growth rate included in increased demand for resources and the rate all
which these resources are exploited. In Ethiopia where technology has not kept pace with the
demands for greater productivity, environmentally harmful and economic country productive
methods or exploiting land associated resources are resorted in order to meet immediate needs.
As a consequence; climatic condition became erratic and soil quality declined at an alarming
rate” (national population policy of Ethiopia 2005).

Empirical evidence on Ethiopia agriculture and population growth shows as that there is a
wide gap between population growth and the corresponding in food production. “Declining
per capital production, low caloric consumption and increasing food insecurity and resource
exploitations are the likely consequence of population pressure in Ethiopia (NPPOE, 2005).

In an Africa context in general and Ethiopia in particularly the growth in food production has
failed to keep pace with population growth. In sub-Saharan Africa, for example the growth of
per capital food production is 2% while the population is growing at 3% per annum” (Abbi,
2011).

2.3. Conceptual frame work of Ethiopia population growth.

Rapid population growth in Ethiopia aggravated the existing gap of unmet need for social
services. The quality of health and education services in the country have been and continued
being deteriorated by the rapid growth of population. A report presented to the office of prime
minister of the transitional government of Ethiopia in 2001 put the effect of population growth
on the service sector as “In spite of the facts that during the last several decades, environment
figures in absolute terms, at various levels of education have significantly increased, large
proportions of the school age population still remained outside the school system of the more
rapid rate at which enrolment increased relative to facilities. The quality of education has
seriously deteriorated.” (National population policy of Ethiopia. 2009).
Figure 2.1: conceptual Frame work on the cause of Rapid population growth on socio
economic development

 Poor economy of the

country
 Rural- urban migration  Individual
 Mismatch between training Rapid population effect
and requirements of jobs growth on socio  Social
 Population pressure economic economical
development in effect
Ambo town

The need for Appropriate

action and Intervention may all
concerned bodies
 CHAPTER THREE
3. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

3.1 Description of the Study Area

The study will be conduct in Ambo Town, Oromia Regional State, Ethiopia. Ambo town
is located in the western Shoa zone of the Oromia region, some 114 kilometers west of
Addis Ababa, the capital. Established in 1889, Ambo is one of the towns in Ethiopia. It is
situated in the highlands at an altitude of 2100 meters above sea level. The mean
temperature is 18.6 degree centigrade. (UN.HABITAT, 2008)

Ambo is among a few privileged towns of its time to have its own municipal
administration since 1931, and a master plan since 1983. It covers a total area of 1320
hectares.

The town is serving as an administrative, commercial and transport center of the western
Shoa zone. The town is select to be one of twenty in the Oromia region to benefit from a
federal reform program projection), the current population is estimated at 50,284
inhabitants.

The municipality only counts registered residents of the town. Given the transitory nature
of the town, a large proportion is thought to be unaccounted for economy. The economy
of Ambo town is predominantly based on administration and social services sector the
employments, industry workers and other activities.

3.2 Types and Source of Data

The study is used both primary and secondary data source. The primary data sources are
collect from selected residents of six kebeles. An officer of kebeles and town administration is
including getting more detail information. Secondary data are obtain from annual population
report data of Ambo town labor and social affair, Annual population report data of town.

3.3 Method of data collection

The primary data is conduct from the target individual by using structure questionnaire,
unstructured interview and discussed with respondent and organization team personal
interview with concerned body under program that have direct contact with respondent and to
the body who watch this issue. The researcher uses these methods because it provides current
information and special questionnaire are free from bias of interviewer

3.4 Sampling design

Ambo town has totally 5 kebeles. Researcher will be select all kebeles there are Awaro,Yai
Gada,Kisose Ido Liban, Hora Ayetu and Sankale Faris by used strata sample. Therefore the
total sample size will be select 100 from 50,284 of the total population of five kebeles. Finally,
sample size for the study will determine based on the following formula (Yemane, 1967)
sample determination formula.

The formula of Yamane taro: Where:

n=sample size
N=total population for five kebeles
N
e=sampling error n¿
1+ N ( e ) 2

Where; N=50,284
e=0.1

50,284
n¿
1+ 50,284 ( 0.1 ) 2
50,284
n¿
1+ 502.84
50,284
n¿
503.84
n=100

3.5 Methods of data analysis

Based on the research questions of the study, a questionnaire and document analysis are
employed to collect data. After the data are collect from the sample used the specified
instrument, analysis is make to answer the research questions. Data analysis will do with SPSS
software. Accordingly the primary data gathered through questionnaires is analyzed using
descriptive statistics- frequency; percentage and mean are used for the data analysis.
3.6. Variable Description and Model Specification
As already shown in the first chapter, in the context of the problems highlighted the broad
objective of these researches is to impact of rapid population growth on socio economic
development of Ambo town of west Shoa Zone of the Oromia regional state.

3.6.1. Dependent variable

Impact of rapid population growth on socio economic development

3.6.2. Independent Variables

 Poor economy of the country
 Rural-urban migration
 Mismatch between training and required of the job
 Population pressure

3.7. Model specification

The study specifies study model through applying alternative Binary regression approaches by
using the two most important Binary data techniques including the poor economy and training
problem is used in the specification of model of the study. As Gujarati (2004) stated that the
advantage of using panel data was to address a broader range of issues and tackle more
complex problems with than time series or using cross-sectional data alone.

Similarly, the econometric model employed in the study (which is predominantly found in the
literature, such as the works of Adeusi, et al. (2013) and YousfiImane(2013).

3.8. Ethical Consideration

After recovering official letter of cooperation from Ambo University, the research has
communicated all institution and individual participants legally and smoothly. The purpose of
the study is making clear and understandable for all respondents. Any communication with the
concerned bodies is accomplish at their voluntarily consent without harming and threatening
the personal and institutional wellbeing. In addition, all information that obtained from
individual respondents is kept confidential. Finally, the impact of rapid population growth on
socio economic development of Ambo town of west Shoa Zone of the Oromia regional state is
identified with their recommendations.

4. TIME SCHEDULE AND BUDGET BREAK DOWN

4.1 TIME SCHEDULE

This study will be intended to be finished in five months. i.e., it will be begun in Oct. 2023 -
and completed in Feb. 2024, and then the following table shows the action that will be taken
in specified timetable.
No Main activities Oct. Nov Dec Jan Feb

1 Topic selection and modification 

2 Collection of Review related literature  

3 Proposal Development  

4 Data collection 
5 Data analysis
6 Proposal Defense
7 Writing first draft
8 Writing second finalized thesis 

9 Defense for final thesis 

10 Make modification based on comments 
then finalize for publish
4.2 .BUDGET BREAK DOWN
Budget plan shows the budget estimated for the accomplishment of the research. The cost
budget which the researcher will spend for field expenses, for data collections payment,
payment for typist, for travel and all related items need to be detailed . So, the researchers
expect that they expenses will be as follows by taking into consideration current inflation
condition of our country.

No Item Unit Amount Unit Total

price

1 Stationery Pen No 5 25 125

Paper Packet 4 800 3200

Not book No 3 120 360

Ruler No 1 20 20

Binding No 4 30 120

Total 3820

2 Communication Telephone Three 300

months

3 Others Internet 500

Flash No 1 350 400

 Copy Paper 200 3 600

Total 1800

4 Total 5,620

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