FORMULATING HYPOTHESIS

Prepared By: Carina Christine Q. Gonzales, MSPsy

The Basics of Experimentation

● Independent and Dependent variables
● Reliability & Validity
● Evaluating the Experiment: Internal Validity
● Extraneous Variables and Confounding
● Classic Threats to Internal Validity

Independent and Dependent Variables

In research, variables are any characteristics that can take on different values, such as
height, age, temperature, or test scores.

Researchers often manipulate or measure independent and dependent variables in studies to test
cause-and-effect relationships.

● The independent variable is the cause. Its value is independent of other variables in your
study.
● The dependent variable is the effect. Its value depends on changes in the independent
variable.

Reliability and validity are both about how well a method measures something: Reliability
refers to the consistency of a measure (whether the results can be reproduced under the same
conditions). Validity refers to the accuracy of a measure (whether the results really do represent
what they are supposed to measure).
For a test to be reliable, it also needs to be valid. For example, if your scale is off by 5 lbs,
it reads your weight every day with an excess of 5lbs. The scale is reliable because it consistently
reports the same weight every day, but it is not valid because it adds 5lbs to your true weight.

THE BASICS OF EXPERIMENTATION Variable - Something which changes and subject to

increase and/or decrease over time - Is a quantity or quality that varies across people or situations
- Intelligence, anxiety, aptitude, income, education, authoritarianism, achievement, and
achievement are some examples of variables commonly employed or studied in psychology,
sociology, and education.

Independent Variable (IV) - Values are produced by the experimenter and are not affected by
anything else that takes place in the experiment - Experimenter intentionally manipulates - May
be aspects of the physical environment that can be brought under the experimenter’s direct
control, like for instance, lighting (bright or dim) and noise levels (loud or soft) or aspects of a
given task such as difficulty (easy vs hard), and meaningfulness (nonsense syllables vs real
words).
Null Results - Failure of an independent variable to control behavior.

Dependent Variable (DV) - Response measure of an experiment that is dependent on the

subject’s response to the manipulation of the environment - Particular behavior the experimenters
expect to change because of the experimental treatment; in other words, the outcome that the
experimenters are trying to explain.

Control Variable - A potential independent variable that is held constant during an experiment
because it is controlled by the experimenter
Examples: (1) Requiring people to memorize three-letter syllables—many variables should be
controlled (2) Time of day changes your efficiency; ideally, this should be controlled (3)
Temperature could be important, because you might fall asleep if the testing room were too
warm

Operational Definition - Refers to the precise meaning of a variable in terms of observable

operations, procedures, and measurements within the experiment - Depicts the operations
involved in manipulating or measuring the variables - This is included in written reports so that
other researchers will understand precisely what was done and they will be able to replicate the
study

Experimental Operational Definition - Delineates the precise definition of the independent

variables, describing exactly what was done to create various treatment conditions

Hypothetical Constructs - Unseen processes predicated to explain behavior

Reliability - Consistency and dependability of a research study

Interrater Reliability - The agreement between measurements wherein different individuals take
measurements of the same responses - Between rater agreement - The degree to which different
raters give consistent estimates of the same behavior - “How many pairs of raters gave exactly
the same score?”
Example: Several raters might score all subjects’ essays for “assertiveness”

Test - Retest Reliability - Comparing scores of people who have been measured twice with the
same instrument - Measures the stability of the test over time - If people consistently get about
the same scores on a personality test, then the test is reliable

Example: Standardized tests (i.e. Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale, Third Edition)
Interim Reliability - The extent to which different parts of a questionnaire, test, or other
instruments designed to measure the same variable attain consistent results

Internal Consistency - Measure the same construct and achieving constant results
Split - Half Reliability - Involves splitting the test into two halves at random and computing a
coefficient of reliability between the scores obtained on two halves - Measures the extent to
which all parts of the test contribute equally to what is being measured

Validity - Measures what it intends to measure

Manipulation Check - Providing evidence for the validity of the experimental procedures

Face Validity - “Does the test appears to measure what it intends to measure?”

Content Validity - “Does the content of our measure fairly reflect the content of the quality we
are measuring?” “Are all aspects of the content represented appropriately?
Example: The questions students might raise about an exam

Construct Validity - “Does the test relate to underlying theoretical concepts?

Concurrent Validity - “Does the test relate to an existing similar measure?”

Predictive Validity - “Does the test predict later performance on a related criterion?”

Internal Validity - The degree to which a researcher is able to state a causal relationship
between antecedent conditions and the subsequent observed behavior - An experiment is
internally valid if we can be sure that the changes in behavior were caused by the independent
variable

Extraneous Variables - Factors that can influence findings but are not the focus of the
experiments - Can affect results Example: Equipment breakdown

Confounding - Value of an extraneous variable changes systematically across different

conditions of an experiment

Characteristics of an Experimental Hypothesis

Hypothesis is a statement about a predicted relationship between at least two variables.
Some non-scientific synonyms are speculation, guesses, or hunch.
The statement of a research hypothesis is designed to fit the type of research design that has been
selected.
 Non-experimental hypothesis is a statement of your predictions of how events, traits or
behaviors might be related, not a statement about cause and effect.
Experimental hypothesis is a tentative explanation of an event or behavior. It is a
statement that explains the effect of specified antecedent conditions on a measured behavior.

Synthetic Statements are those can be either true or false. Psychologists have borrowed the
terminology from the field of logic. Each experimental hypothesis must be a synthetic statement
so that there can be some chance it is true and chance it is false. “Hungry students read slowly”
A. Analytic Statement- is one that is always true
B. Contradictory Statements- statements with elements that oppose each other because
contradictory statements are always false.

Testable Statements means for manipulating antecedent variables conditions and measuring the
resulting behavior must exist.

Falsifiable Statements (Disprovable) by the research findings. Hypothesis need to be worded

so that failures to find the predicted effect must be considered evidence that the hypothesis is
needed false.

Parsimonious Statements means a simple hypothesis is preferred over one that requires many
supporting assumptions. The hypothesis “If you look at an appealing photograph, then your
pupils will dilate” would be preferred over “If you look at an appealing photograph, then your
pupils will dilate if it is warm Saturday in June.”

Fruitful Statements it is often difficult to know in advance which hypothesis will be the most
fruitful. There are some indication that a hypothesis is fruitful when we can think of a new
studies that will become important if the hypothesis is supported.

Inductive Model of formulating hypothesis, the process of reasoning form specific cases to
more general principles, is often used in science and mathematics. Research hypothesis often
come from the use of inductive reasoning. You observe several specific instances of behavior and
use these instances to form a general principle to explain the behavior. You may be able to come
up with an interesting idea for testing it experimentally.

The Deductive Model of formulating a hypothesis is the reverse of the induction model.
Deduction process of reasoning from the general principles to make predictions about specific
instances. The deductive model is most useful when we have a well-developed theory with
clearly stated basic premises.
Serendipity and the windfall hypothesis
Serendipity is the knack of finding things that are not being sought. Discoveries through
serendipity have been made in the physical sciences as well as in psychology.
Serendipity can be useful in generating new hypotheses only when we are open to new
possibilities. The good scientist takes note of all potentially relevant observations and analyzes
and evaluates them. Serendipity is not just a matter of luck; it is also a matter of knowing enough
to use an opportunity.
Intuition may be defined as knowing without reasoning. As such, it is probably closest to
phenomenology. We acquire phenomenological knowledge simply by attending to our own
experience. Intuition guides what we choose to study. Of course, our experiments are still
conducted in the context of prior research.

Functions / Roles of Hypothesis

1. Roles of hypothesis in navigating research- a hypothesis, regardless of its source states
what a researcher is looking for. Without it, no further step is possible in empirical
researcher non-doctrinal legal research. A hypothesis helps the researcher in drawing
“meaningful conclusions” supported by “relevant” empirical data.
2. Role of “tested” hypothesis- a hypothesis needs to be empirically tested to draw some
inferences about the initially posited relationship between the variables indicated in the
hypothesis. Therefore, when it is empirically tested (or not), the initially assumed
relationship between the concepts or variables, as the case may be, become a proved fact.
Once a hypothesis is established, it ceases to be a hypothesis.
3. Test theories. A hypothesis, when empirically proved, helps us in testing an existing
theory.
4. Suggest new theories- A hypothesis, even though related to some existing theory, may
after tested, reveal certain “facts” that are not related to the existing theory or disclose
relationships other than those stated in the theory.
5. Describe Social Phenomenon- A hypothesis also performed a descriptive function.
6. Suggest social policy- a hypothesis, after its testing, may highlight such “ills” of existing
social or legislative policy.

The hypothesis plays significant role in the scientific role in the scientific studies
● Helps in testing of the theories
● Serves as a great platform in the investigation activities.
● Provides guidance to the research work or study
● Hypothesis sometimes suggests theories
● Helps in knowing the needs of the data
● Explains social phenomena
● Develops theory
● Also acts as a bridge between the theory and the investigation
 ● Provides a relationship between phenomena in such a way that it leads to the empirical
testing of the relationship.
● Helps knowing the most suitable technique of analysis
● Helps in the determination of the most suitable type of research
● Provides knowledge about the required sources of data

Origins/ Source of Hypothesis

The major sources of hypothesis are:
● Specialization of an educational field
● Published studies, abstracts research journals, hand book, seminars on the issue, current
trends on the research area.
● Instructional programs persuaded.
● Analyze of the area studied
● Considering existing practices and needs
● Extension of the investigation
● Offshoots of research studies in the field.

A few prominent sources of hypothesis are:

Hunch or intuition: A hypothesis may be based simply on hunch or intuition of a person. It is a

sort of virgin idea. Such a hypothesis,if tested may ultimately make an important contribution to
the existing science or body of knowledge.

Findings of others: A hypothesis may originate from findings of other studies or studies. A
hypothesis that rests on the findings of other studies is obviously free from the first limitation.

A theory or a body of theory: A hypothesis may stem from existing theory or a body of theory.
A theory represents logical deductions of relationship between inter-related proved facts.

General Social Culture: furnishes many of its basic hypotheses.

Analogy: Analogies may be one of the fertile sources of hypothesis. Analogies stimulate new
valuable hypotheses.

Personal Experience: Not only do culture, science and analogy, among others, affect the
formulation of hypotheses. The way in which an individual reacts to each of these is also a factor
inthe statement of hypothesis.