CHANGING NATURE OF WORK: WHAT ARE THE EFFECTS OF AI ON

JOBS AND WHAT NEED TO BE DONE?

I think it is reasonable and justifiable to state my position in relation to the above question at this

early stage. Going by findings of recent large-scale research conducted by reputable and

internationally recognized institutions, organizations and individuals, I am of the position that

although AI will not eliminate all jobs, it will however eliminate some jobs. I am also of the

position that the application of AI will create new jobs. Regardless of what the outcome will be,

however, it is important that appropriate policies are formulated in order to tackle the

consequences proactively.

The idea that rapid technology could deprive people of their jobs is not novel. In fact, it dates

back at least to 1930s when Keynes postulated his Technological Unemployment Theory. What

is also not novel, however, is the idea that technological impact on employment usually has two

effects (the displacement and the productive effects) and that these effects usually surface in

short-term and long-term respectively. In other words, technology always leads to displacement

of job in the short term while it leads to creation of new jobs and opportunities in the long term.

AI in Short Term: The Displacement Effect

Will AI and robots take away our jobs? This is the question the PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)

(2018) extensively researched report sought to answer. To achieve this, the report identified how

this process might unfold over the period to the 2030s in three overlapping waves: algorithm

wave, augmentation wave and autonomy wave.

Source: PIAAC data, PwC analysis

Potential automation rates vary widely by occupation – machine operators and assemblers could

face a risk of over 60% by the 2030s, while professionals, senior officials and senior managers

may face only around a 10% risk of automation.

The starkest results are those by education level, with much lower potential automation rates on

average for highly educated workers with graduate degrees or above, than for those with low to

medium education levels. This reflects the greater adaptability of more highly educated workers

to technological changes and the fact that they are more likely to be in senior managerial roles
that will still be needed to apply human judgement, as well as to design and supervise AI-based

systems. Bakshi (2017) findings also suggest declining employment in many low- and middle

educated occupations, and in some professional occupations (such as financial specialists). This

PwC’s report clearly shows that indeed AI will have negative effects on jobs, some in the short

term and some in the long term.

AI in Long Term: The Productive Effect

McKinsey (2017) estimates that the introduction of the personal computer has enabled the

creation of 15.8 million net new jobs in the United States since 1980, including the jobs

displaced and that 30 % of the jobs created in the past 25 years in the US were types that did not

exist before. According to a report by Boston Consulting Group in 2015 the Internet has

destroyed 500000 jobs in France in the past 15 years but at the same time has created 1.2 million

others. And the automobile industry in Germany, which has been the most advanced European

economy in terms of robotisation for a long time, is seeing a constant increase of its workforce,

which stood at 800 000 in 2016, 100 000 more than 20 years ago.

A Report by European Commission estimates that digitization alone created two (2) million jobs

and predicted that 1.75 million new jobs will be created by 2030. Wilson, Daugherty and Morini-

Bianzino (2017) suggest that ‘trainers’ (workers performing tasks useful to train AI systems),

‘explainers’ (workers interpreting the outputs generated by AI systems so organisations using AI

systems can be accountable internally and to others), and ‘sustainers’ (workers monitoring the

work of AI systems to prevent and mitigate any unintended consequences) may all be jobs of the

future. Eurofound (2017) also suggests that advances in industrial robotics could generate

employment in the provision of robotics support services to manufacturing firms, as well as in

the manufacturing of robots. Roles in these areas would include programmers and specialists in

robot maintenance.
AI safety engineers, maintenance engineers, machine designers and ethics researchers and jobs

indirectly related to AI such as educational AI related content creators, services of professional

like neurologist will also be needed in the designing of AI suitable for tasks in such professions

are also some of the predicted new jobs (Su, 2017). However, the largest job gains will be in

sectors where these new technologies boost demand, either directly or indirectly, through

increasing income and wealth (PwC Report).

Conclusion

The reports and findings cited above has clearly shown that the effects of AI on employment

come in two folds: while the application of AI tend to cause displacement of some jobs in the

short term, it will however leads to the creation of new jobs in the long term. In essence, it is safe

to that while AI will take away some jobs it will however bestow us with new ones in greater

numbers. The question therefore is: will we be adaptive and prepared enough to take on the new

jobs?